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April 2015

Ironman Taiwan 2015 – Analyzing Results

Course Conditions

This was the first time for a full-distance Ironman-branded race in Taiwan. The typically hot conditions and the hilly bike course did not allow for fast times, a race adjustment of 8:37 is similar to Switzerland or Mont Tremblant.

Male Race Results

Ex-Pro bike racer Domenico Passuello exited the swim two minutes after early leaders Rod DeKanel, Fredrik Croneborg and Cam Brown. He quickly rode up to them, then built an eight minute lead into T2. After a solid 2:55 marathon he continued his winning streak (he won 70.3 Putrajaya a week ago), but still needs another 1.100 points for a Kona slot.

DomenicoTaiwan

The race best marathon (2:49) allowed Fredrik Croneborg to finish second – again coming up just short of a win (he was also second at IM Malaysia), but he is now safe for a Kona slot. Third place went to Patrick Evoe who had to play catch up all day after a slower than normal swim.

Cam Brown said after the race that he had „nothing in the tank“, he still finished fourth and now also has a safe Kona slot.

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to expected Prize Money
1 Domenico Passuello ITA 00:52:25 04:32:16 02:55:52 08:25:54 -17:42 US$ 5000
2 Fredrik Croneborg SWE 00:50:35 04:42:57 02:49:48 08:28:37 -07:02 US$ 2750
3 Patrick Evoe USA 00:55:41 04:42:27 02:57:06 08:40:58 -07:24 US$ 1750
4 Cameron Brown NZL 00:50:56 04:42:29 03:04:22 08:43:13 24:11 US$ 1250
5 Patrick Jaberg SUI 00:52:21 04:40:53 03:05:47 08:44:46 -07:33 US$ 1000
6 Nick Baldwin SEY 00:52:24 04:53:01 02:54:32 08:45:59 04:01 US$ 750
7 Mauro Baertsch SUI 00:52:41 04:47:51 02:59:18 08:46:33 -11:42
8 Karol Dzalaj SVK 00:52:13 04:45:35 03:01:12 08:46:40 -08:16
9 Mike Schifferle SUI 00:58:23 04:37:51 03:04:12 08:50:43 -04:43
10 Samuel Huerzeler SUI 00:52:05 04:56:15 03:05:16 09:00:29 04:32
11 Deak Zsombor ROM 00:58:18 05:03:50 03:14:21 09:22:39 -07:19
12 Henrik Oftedal NOR 00:57:53 05:01:04 03:26:00 09:31:35 21:56
13 Rod De Kanel FRA 00:50:35 05:06:02 04:07:20 10:12:45 n/a
14 Daniel Brown AUS 01:02:00 05:26:48 03:59:06 10:34:43 n/a
Josef Svoboda CZE 01:14:27 DNF

Female Race Results

It was almost six years ago that Dede Griesbauer won IM Brasil in 2009. She went through a long period of dealing with injuries sustained after crashing at IM Germany 2011. At 44 years of age, she is now back on full form: She finished second at IM Mallorca and also won her first 70.3 at Taiwan at the end of 2014. She’s had another great race in Taiwan: Close to the front at after the swim, then quickly building a lead on the bike, and finishing off her race with a 3:17 marathon to win by more than ten minutes.

DedeTaiwan

Second place went to Dimitry-Lee Duke who had the strongest marathon. Kim Schwabenbauer took third spot, posting a new swim PR just over an hour, had a solid bike, but then didn’t quite have the run she was probably hoping for.

Because there are fewer WPRO slots for Kona, they need more points and none of the Taiwan athletes has enough points for a safe slots.

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to expected Prize Money
1 Dede Griesbauer USA 00:51:10 05:05:19 03:17:16 09:20:23 -24:38 US$ 5000
2 Dimity-Lee Duke AUS 00:58:08 05:16:14 03:10:17 09:31:31 -08:11 US$ 2750
3 Kim Schwabenbauer USA 01:00:08 05:15:41 03:15:53 09:38:35 10:45 US$ 1750
4 Shiao-yu Li TWN 01:07:10 05:22:36 03:14:57 09:50:52 07:30 US$ 1250
5 Keiko Tanaka JPN 00:54:39 05:21:01 03:34:05 09:55:41 14:28 US$ 1000
6 Eva Potuckova CZE 00:51:18 05:27:31 03:32:42 09:57:47 n/a US$ 750
7 Alena Stevens SVK 01:01:01 05:31:40 03:38:23 10:18:01 n/a
8 Angela Kuehnlein GER 01:01:03 05:30:53 03:42:52 10:21:28 00:33
9 Maki Nishiuchi JPN 00:54:38 05:39:58 03:42:54 10:24:44 13:39
10 Samantha Morrison USA 00:51:06 05:40:57 05:57:17 12:37:04 n/a
Camilla Lindholm SWE 01:10:54 05:27:09 DNF
Caroline Gregory USA 00:57:14 05:45:33 DNF

Photo Credit: Finisher Pix Twitter account (@FinisherPix)

70.3 Oceanside: Analyzing gap between MPRO and WPRO

Drafting Penalty for Angela Naeth at Oceanside

At Oceanside 70.3 the Pro Women caught up to the Pro men. Alicia Kaye (who eventually finished fourth) describes the situation in her blog post on Oceanside:

[A] pack of pro men came by me [at around mile 30] .. From this point on, I had a pack of pro men around me until T2.  It was extremely frustrating and it clearly affected the women’s race. On some occasions the pro men around me were not doing strong passes, causing me to sit up and put on the breaks to get a 12m gap in between us within 25 seconds.  Multiple pro men ‘slotted in’, in front of me when I was spaced at 12m.

Riding in this group, she saw how fellow Pro Angela Naeth received a drafting penalty:

As we entered Camp Pendleton everyone in the pack moved to the right to get fluids at the aid station. I moved left to make a pass since I was not using the aid station.  Angela grabbed a bottle then moved left but wasn’t proceeding past the people on the right.  I yelled for her to move and she moved forward immediately; I needed to get by her within 25 seconds and the clock was ticking!  I pushed hard to get passed her and shortly after I heard the referee give her a blue card for drafting.

Here’s how Angela describes the situation in her blog post:

At mile 30, as I was making a pass on the two gals I just caught,  I was told I received a blue card for drafting (not giving enough time for a pass albeit we (a few male pros) were on a hill and just past an aid station!).

Obviously, it is never right to draft or not doing a pass in the allotted time, but things get tricky when a lot of athletes are in close proximity. Alicia and Angela were clearly frustrated by the situation. Here’s Alicia’s view:

I was not the only one who experienced this, I watched it happen to other female pros when they were trying to get through the pro mens pack on the hills. This should not be happening! It is also possible the a pro women could gain an unfair advantage by riding with a pack of pro men, but what I saw was pro women trying to get away and pro men getting in the way. The pro women deserve a clean and fair race, and quite simply the pro mens and pro womens race should not be interacting at all.

Despite her five-minute penalty, Angela eventually ran her way into fifth place. After the race, she was already looking for ways to address the problem:

AngelaTweet

Visualizing MPRO and FPRO mixing at Oceanside

Looking a bit closer at the wave start in Oceanside, there were just three minutes between the MPRO wave and the FPRO wave. To visualize the impact of the small gap, here is a look at how the PRO fields overlapped in Oceanside:

OceansideMixing

The graph shows for various points during the race how far back each of the athletes was from the front of the race. You can clearly see how the front of the women’s field (red lines) move into the men’s field (blue lines). Here is some additional data:

  • At the end of the swim, the first women had overtaken seven of the 34 MPROs. The last male was overtaken by 22 of the 26 FPROs.
  • At the end of the bike, the first women had overtaken 11 of the 34 MPROs. The last male was overtaken by 24 of the 26 FPROs.

The data clearly supports the anecdotal evidence by Alicia and Angela of a pretty large overlap of the MPRO and FPRO fields.

Ideas for a Clean WPRO Race

There have been a few suggestions on how this situation could be avoided:

  1. Any MPRO who is overtaken by an FPRO should be taken out of the race.
  2. Increase the time difference between the two fields so that an overlap can be avoided.

Implementing suggestion #1 in Oceanside would have resulted in 11 DQs into T2 (and another two on the run) – obviously that is a large part go the male field and probably a bit unreasonable to implement. Also, if an MPRO has the bad luck of a flat early in the bike, that would mean the end of his race – even if he could complete the race and still get a few KPR points.

Increasing the gap between the MPRO and FPRO so that there is no overlap at least until the end of the bike is also not an option – for Oceanside even a gap of 30 minutes wouldn’t be enough.

However, a mixture between both options can be a viable solution: There are two MPROs that trail the rest of the field by 16 and 26 minutes in T2. Clearly, these two are no longer „racing“ for a specific place finish – even if they are forced to “sit up“ when passed by a WPRO it wouldn’t change their final position. After a pass, they should be a clear separation – at least of the „Challenge Distance“ of 20 meters to any FPRO.

If in addition the start gap is increased from three minutes to nine minutes, we only have one male being overtaken by the WPRO race leader shortly before T2:

Oceanside9MinGap

To sum up, here are my suggestions for a clean WPRO race:

  1. Increase the gap between MPRO and WPRO to at least nine minutes. (Logistically, ten minutes might be simpler and would be even safer.)
  2. Any MPRO that is overtaken by a WPRO has to sit up until being cleanly passed and after that keep at least a 20 meter gap, even is that impacts his own race.

An increased gap would also allow the race organizers to deal with another complaint as noted by Alicia: “Pro women must be allowed equal swim warm up time as the pro men.“ (The women Pros were not allowed a warm-up swim prior to the race in Oceanside.)

I hope that organizers address these issues for future 70.3s and also think about potential problems when planning the start of upcoming Ironman races: There were massive issues about „clean races for WPROs“ in Brasil and Frankfurt because of fast AG men mixing with the WPRO. Both races are important Regional Championships this year and it would be a shame to see Kona slots being influenced by issues that could be mitigated by separate starts with decent gaps.

All measures should help to make the women’s race as clean and fair as the men’s race – as it should be!

Ironman Taiwan 2015 (April 12th) – Predictions

This is the first race on this course. The „predicted“ times are therefore only based on the athletes previous results and do not take potential course conditions into account.

KPR points and Prize Money

IM Taiwan is a P-2000 race. It has a total prize purse of 25.000 US$.

Male Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Overall
1 1 Cameron Brown NZL 08:31:17 08:27:23 00:51:05 04:42:22 02:52:50 17
2 2 Fredrik Croneborg SWE 08:45:42 08:49:01 00:51:56 04:52:19 02:56:26 83
3 13 Domenico Passuello ITA 08:52:22 09:07:46 00:55:31 04:44:55 03:06:56 159
4 4 Nick Baldwin SEY 08:54:57 09:06:26 00:53:51 04:48:34 03:07:31 152
5 5 Patrick Evoe USA 08:57:36 08:56:41 00:56:12 04:48:34 03:07:50 116
6 11 Patrick Jaberg SUI 09:02:26 09:06:05 00:53:35 04:53:45 03:10:06 151
7 3 Karol Dzalaj SVK 09:04:28 09:08:46 00:53:56 04:48:53 03:16:40 168
8 6 Mauro Baertsch SUI 09:05:38 09:17:38 00:53:52 05:02:12 03:04:33 (205)
9 14 Mike Schifferle SUI 09:05:44 09:03:54 01:00:51 04:51:49 03:08:04 146
10 10 Samuel Huerzeler SUI 09:09:41 09:10:01 00:53:54 05:03:34 03:07:13 176
11 15 Yu Shinozaki JPN 09:12:44 09:55:36 00:56:20 04:47:47 03:23:37 359
12 12 Henrik Oftedal NOR 09:19:58 09:24:21 01:02:01 04:53:47 03:19:10 (241)
13 9 Eneko Elosegui ESP 09:22:57 09:33:49 00:57:56 04:52:36 03:27:25 272
14 17 Deak Zsombor ROM 09:44:44 09:56:30 00:57:57 05:25:11 03:16:37 (366)
15 16 Josef Svoboda CZE 11:59:20 12:05:00 01:13:22 06:10:20 04:30:38 484
7 Daniel Brown AUS n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
8 Rod De Kanel FRA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)

Female Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Overall
1 21 Kim Schwabenbauer USA 09:39:59 09:42:16 01:02:52 05:16:42 03:15:25 46
2 23 Dimity-Lee Duke AUS 09:44:38 09:54:42 01:02:38 05:18:04 03:18:55 76
3 25 Dede Griesbauer USA 09:46:55 09:59:54 00:53:03 05:15:32 03:33:21 87
4 22 Camilla Lindholm SWE 09:50:57 09:55:10 01:09:14 05:16:23 03:20:20 77
5 24 Keiko Tanaka JPN 09:53:23 10:02:36 00:55:17 05:30:04 03:23:02 93
6 26 Shiao-yu Li TWN 09:53:36 09:58:44 01:06:52 05:22:19 03:19:25 86
7 28 Caroline Gregory USA 10:14:13 10:23:22 00:55:47 05:44:42 03:28:44 145
8 31 Maki Nishiuchi JPN 10:18:52 10:21:03 00:54:02 05:32:04 03:47:46 139
9 29 Angela Kuehnlein GER 10:37:09 10:56:27 01:03:20 05:34:41 03:54:07 (169)
27 Sandra Fantini FRA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
30 Samantha Morrison USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
32 Eva Potuckova CZE n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
33 Alena Stevens SVK n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

  • Cameron Brown: 70% (1-1)
  • Fredrik Croneborg: 18% (5-1)
  • Domenico Passuello: 5% (20-1)
  • Nick Baldwin: 3% (30-1)
  • Patrick Evoe: 2% (41-1)

Female Race Participants

  • Kim Schwabenbauer: 33% (2-1)
  • Dede Griesbauer: 30% (2-1)
  • Dimity-Lee Duke: 13% (6-1)
  • Camilla Lindholm: 9% (10-1)
  • Shiao-yu Li: 8% (12-1)
  • Keiko Tanaka: 7% (13-1)
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