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May 2015

Ironman Texas 2015 – Analyzing Results

Race Conditions

As usual, the race in the Woodlands was hot and steamy, especially as the race progressed. The swim and bike were pretty much as they always are – the bike times were fast as expected. During the run, the athletes struggled a bit more – the run adjustment was -3:51 and we saw a pretty large number of DNFs. This year’s race had an overall adjustment of 8:36 and leading to a new course rating of 11:17.

The conditions lead to an interesting mix of records:

  • a new men’s bike course record by Joe Skipper – his 4:10:07 was the third fastest bike leg in an Ironman ever (only Andrew Starykowicz posted two faster splits in Florida), improving on the old record by Mathias Hecht (4:18:17 in 2012)
  • a new women’s bike course record by Corinne Abraham – her 4:40:39 improved on the old record by Rachel Joyce (04:42:29 in 2013)
  • a new overall male course record by Matt Hanson – his 8:07:03 improved on Eneko Llanos’ 8:08:20 from 2011
  • a new fastest 2015 IM marathon by Kelly Williamson in 3:01:02, improving on Susie Cheetham’s 3:03:38 in SouthAfrica

Male Race Results

Joe Skipper and Lionel Sanders put out two spectacular bike rides, and even with having to make up some time after the swim, they had a decent lead going into the run. Lionel quickly looked like he was working hard and was slowly dropping back from Joe. Matt Hanson was quickly working his way to the front, and the cameras were surprised when he was taking the lead around the half-marathon mark.

TexasMatt

He slowed down a bit on the third run loop, but won by almost ten minutes in front of Joe Skipper. Third place went to veteran racer Ronnie Schildknecht, who had one of only three sub-3h marathons.

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to expected Prize Money
1 Matt Hanson USA 00:55:02 04:21:25 02:45:47 08:07:03 -28:02 US$ 30000
2 Joe Skipper GBR 00:55:09 04:10:07 03:04:35 08:16:26 -17:58 US$ 15000
3 Ronnie Schildknecht SUI 00:55:07 04:24:27 02:55:54 08:21:03 02:08 US$ 8000
4 Lionel Sanders CAN 00:57:19 04:11:25 03:11:22 08:24:54 n/a US$ 6500
5 Pedro Gomes POR 00:54:48 04:32:02 02:54:43 08:26:42 -08:22 US$ 5000
6 Jeremy Jurkiewicz FRA 00:48:45 04:31:34 03:05:45 08:31:30 05:08 US$ 3500
7 Matthew Russell USA 00:59:35 04:27:01 03:00:51 08:33:28 -09:11 US$ 2500
8 Ben Hoffman USA 00:49:29 04:20:38 03:18:30 08:33:55 11:00 US$ 2000
9 David Plese SLO 00:54:59 04:21:20 03:14:37 08:36:32 05:50 US$ 1500
10 Jarmo Hast FIN 00:52:57 04:37:12 03:03:41 08:39:48 00:47 US$ 1000
11 Matthew Curbeau USA 00:55:05 04:31:32 03:17:11 08:49:29 -27:21
12 Raymond Botelho USA 00:55:12 04:30:03 03:46:43 09:19:07 -01:53
13 Patrick Schuster USA 01:06:56 04:38:27 03:46:49 09:38:36 12:09
14 Timothy Clarke USA 00:58:14 04:53:08 03:41:36 09:39:23 n/a
15 Peter Kotland CZE 01:03:09 04:46:06 03:44:29 09:40:54 -08:41
16 Mario Radevic DEU 01:03:58 04:51:35 03:39:42 09:42:07 n/a
Todd Skipworth AUS 00:48:05 04:28:12 DNF
Barrett Brandon USA 00:48:07 04:28:39 DNF
Jonathan Shearon USA 00:55:08 04:22:25 DNF
Andreas Raelert GER 00:49:58 04:30:26 DNF
Chad Holderbaum USA 00:55:10 04:40:47 DNF
Faris Al-Sultan GER 00:48:44 04:47:17 DNF
Victor Del Corral ESP 01:03:06 04:37:37 DNF
Patrick Wheeler USA 00:55:01 04:50:44 DNF
Jordan Rapp USA 00:55:05 04:53:35 DNF
Patrice Brisindi CAN 01:01:39 05:13:33 DNF
Jorge Vazquez MEX 00:54:54 07:18:50 DNF
Chris McDonald AUS 00:54:57 DNF

As the winner, Matt Hanson gets an automatic Kona slot. Ben Hoffmann (9.650), Lionel Sanders (7.680), and Ronnie Schildknecht (5.310) are in safe Kona territory. Pedro Gomes (4.090) and Joe Skipper (4.015) are closer but should be fine. Jeremy Jurkiewicz (2.755) and Matt Russell (2.160) still have to race for more points.

Female Race Results

Angela Naeth had to make up six minutes after the swim, but she quickly joined Rachel Joyce and Leanda Cave at the front. Angela and Leanda then rode away and came into T2 within seconds of each other. On the run, Angela was running just a little bit faster than Leanda and won the race by roughly three minutes.

TexasAngela

Leanda finished second and also went sub-9. Rachel finished in third place with a decent 3:14 run.

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to expected Prize Money
1 Angela Naeth CAN 00:59:35 04:41:38 03:09:13 08:55:19 -24:55 US$ 30000
2 Leanda Cave GBR 00:53:13 04:47:43 03:12:02 08:58:12 -17:44 US$ 15000
3 Rachel Joyce GBR 00:53:08 04:52:35 03:14:00 09:05:02 06:42 US$ 8000
4 Kelly Williamson USA 00:55:17 05:06:43 03:01:02 09:08:34 -13:55 US$ 6500
5 Corinne Abraham GBR 01:03:24 04:40:39 03:22:45 09:12:20 -03:06 US$ 5000
6 Sarah Piampiano USA 01:04:04 04:49:52 03:13:54 09:13:47 -21:00 US$ 3500
7 Heather Wurtele CAN 00:56:15 04:51:35 03:21:55 09:15:11 -07:07 US$ 2500
8 Katy Blakemore USA 00:53:13 04:54:51 03:24:22 09:18:02 -10:58 US$ 2000
9 Rebecca Preston AUS 00:59:45 04:58:36 03:22:11 09:26:23 -03:30 US$ 1500
10 Sofie Goos BEL 00:59:37 04:55:50 03:26:44 09:27:58 00:11 US$ 1000
11 Heather Jackson USA 00:59:39 04:55:08 03:42:49 09:43:27 34:47
12 Tami Ritchie USA 00:54:17 05:19:29 03:25:53 09:46:56 -40:56
13 Jocelyn Mccauley USA 00:59:48 05:02:21 03:39:52 09:49:06 -00:04
14 Katharina Grohmann GER 01:15:59 05:12:42 03:20:42 09:54:40 -00:05
15 Jessica Meyers USA 00:59:03 05:02:49 03:48:13 09:55:46 09:02
16 Olesya Prystayko UKR 01:06:21 05:32:56 04:13:38 10:59:26 57:21
17 Caroline Martineau CAN 01:09:11 05:43:51 04:43:52 11:46:22 n/a
Bree Wee USA 00:56:16 04:58:34 DNF
Kaitlin Anelauskas USA 00:55:57 05:06:53 DNF
Natasha Van der Merwe USA 01:03:14 07:30:40 DNF
Corrie Kristick USA 00:55:22 DNF
Keiko Tanaka JPN 00:55:59 DNF
Tamara Kozulina UKR 01:03:27 DNF
Camilla Lindholm SWE 01:26:10 DNF

As the winner, Angela Naeth gets an automatic Kona slot, similar for Leanda Cave as the 2012 Kona champion. From a points perspective, Rachel Joyce (11.100) and Heather Wurtele (7.280) are clearly ahead of the projected cutoff. Corinne Abraham (4.725) and Kelly Williamson (4.540) still need a few more points, potentially from 70.3s. Heather Jackson (3.800) and Sarah Piampiano (3.395) have to consider racing another IM if they want to qualify.

Photo Credit: Kelly Burns Gallager, follow Kelly on Twitter 

Introducing Susie Cheetham

There are a few female Pro athletes that already have enough points to be able to book their flight in early May for the Ironman World Championships in October. Most of them are big names such as Mirinda Carfrae, Jodie Swallow, Caroline Steffen or Meredith Kessler. In addition there is one name that only a few people will know: Susie Cheetham. In his 2013 article about Susie on Tri247.com, John Levison calls her “perhaps be the best British long course athlete you’ve not heard of. Yet.” Not that much has changed until this season: With 5.650 points from 70.3 World Championships, 70.3 South Africa and two third places at IM Barcelona and IM South Africa, she is well above last year’s qualifying threshold of 4.800 points while still flying under the radar. I wanted to learn a bit more about Susie, her background and her plans for this year.

Getting Started with Triathlon

Growing up in England, Susie was a runner: “I started running when I was thirteen. Running doesn’t take that long to train for; I trained once a week until I was about fifteen, at fifteen I started training twice a week. And then at sixteen I think I fancied one of the guys at the track so I ran a little more. I really improved, I won the English national’s schools in the 3000 meters on the track and was second in the 1500. I got selected for British juniors for the world championship. Three or four weeks before I was supposed to go I had a stress fracture in my sacrum – at 17 it is quite a wake-up call to have a stress fracture at the bottom of your spine.”
Similar to a lot of runners that increase their mileage when growing up, she was injured a lot. “I had calf injuries quite a lot and I think the final stroke was my Achilles. I had far too many injuries and spent half my time aqua jogging or feeling sorry for myself that I couldn’t be training or racing.” Even with her injuries, she was part of the British U23 team that won the gold medal in the 2007 European Cross Country Championships and posted a 10k PR of 33:55 at the 2009 BUPA Great Ireland Run. “I could have carried on, but I was having problems with my Achilles and also started working full time as a Brand Manager at Volac, a dairy nutrition company which supplies whey protein to the sports nutrition market. So it came quite naturally that I put it on the back burner for a bit. I was still running and started cycling a bit, partly for cross training and partly to spend time with my (now) husband Rob who was training for an Ironman.  I couldn’t believe the amount of training he was doing.  I was competing internationally and he was ‘giving Ironman a go’, yet he was training double the hours I was. I still think the amount that we train is ridiculous, but I love it.”
Fellow Pro and friend Lucy Gossage still remembers riding with Susie in 2010 when Lucy was training for her 9:53 at Ironman Germany as an age grouper: “I first met Susie when I was becoming a good age grouper and she was an amazing runner doing a bit of riding – I remember on our first ride together being a bit put out that she could stay with the group quite easily, even on the hills! I think it’s indisputable that she has a huge amount of natural talent but she also has an incredible drive, determination and I think far more self belief than me.”
In 2011, Susie was ready to tackle her first serious race: “In mid 2011, I figured I had done enough ‘cross training’ to give a Half Ironman a go and did fairly well.  I did Antwerp 70.3 in July, loved it and won my age group. Although it’s not a comparable race I would have come 6th pro.”

Transitioning to Pro

After her great result in Antwerp, Susie immediately took her Pro card. “There is no age group system in running, so you either run as a fun runner or you’re serious, and I wanted to be serious about it. I didn’t realize you could be serious about it and not be a pro. Also in running, even in elite, prize money is not a given, missing out on it meant I raced my next race (70.3 South Africa, 2012) as a pro. In hindsight, if I had understood the age group system I may have stuck at it a bit longer as I developed as a triathlete.”
One area where she felt she had to improve was her swim – her swim time in Antwerp 70.3 was 30:23, more than five minutes behind the leaders. “I had no background in swimming. I grew up on the coast so I always swam, but I never swam in a lane until 2011. Going into Antwerp, I used to swim a kilometer and a half just to make sure I could do the swim. I didn’t do any reps, I just swam to make sure I could do 1900 meters. After Antwerp I realized I wanted to take this more seriously. I’m quite fortunate, my husband is a very good swimming teacher; he’s done amazingly with me. He broke everything down; he probably has four or five things that he looks at. He effectively just simplified it for me, just basic things such as not crossing over my arms, not dropping my elbow, and he has been working on those ever since. I’m still working on my swim and continue to make big improvements, but it hasn’t shown in any of my long races yet, which is really frustrating.”
Lucy thinks a lot of Susie’s development has to do with Rob: “They come as a pair and you can’t talk about Suse without crediting Rob too. He’s her other half in every sense of the word.”
Even after turning Pro, Susie continued to work as a Brand Manager and helped to launch Upbeat, a fresh whey protein drink that is available in all the major UK supermarkets. “The next three years I worked full time and competed as a Pro – those years were tough! I was regularly training at 5am and 9pm so I can definitely relate to any age groupers that take the sport seriously with a full time job.” She still managed to place on a few podiums and won her first Professional race, 70.3 Aix en Provence in 2013.

2014 Season

2014 saw some big changes for her: “I’ve been with Rob for the last eleven years, we got married in April and I went part time at work.” She now splits her time between Cambridge where she works and Oxford where her husband works. “We have a house in Cambridge that we own; actually I rent one of the rooms to Lucy [Gossage]. We don’t train together that much; when I’m in Cambridge I’m working, so she’s training during the day – but we’ve been on a lot of training camps together.” Here is Lucy’s view: “Susie and I have become very good friends, though our training together always seems to be thwarted by one of us getting ill and injured.”
Working part time allowed Susie to step up her training, winning the 70.3 Norway.

SusieHaugesund
Susie breaking the winner’s tape in Haugesund.

In September 2014 she also participated in the 70.3 World Championship in Mont Tremblant, Canada, and finished a respectable twelfth place in the Pro category.
By that time, she had already registered for her first full-distance Ironman race, Ironman Barcelona in October. “I had decided at the beginning of the year I might try an Ironman, but definitely at the end of the year. I’m not going to lie, anyone close to me will know I was terrified about my first Ironman.” Then why did she do it? “I remember when I got into running I was terrified of going down to the track and running club. I was 13 and it’s such a big life lesson for me: Do the things you are uncomfortable with and actually you’ll benefit in the long run.”
Even with a full Ironman on the calendar, her 2014 season was focused on 70.3s. “I did the Ironman off the back of a season of 70.3s racing and training just to see what it was all about and see if I had any potential at the distance.  After the 70.3 World Champs I had about two weeks of training to get some miles under my belt. I remember a horrible ride in Canada after Mount Tremblant; it was horrible weather and I wanted to do 180 kilometers. It was cold, I didn’t have the proper kit and my husband was following in the car. I was beginning to question whether I wanted to do an Ironman, but it wasn’t too bad in the end.”
Even though she had never run a marathon, she felt a lot more confident about her run capabilities. “One of my favourite sessions are some longer runs.  Every couple of weeks I try to do a longer run at a progressive pace, first hour is fairly steady and the second hour is building the pace up to 70.3 pace. I just love running; that certainly wasn’t a struggle.”

First Ironman: Barcelona 2014

In October, Susie finished her first Ironman in Barcelona. “I didn’t have many expectations except double the distance must mean double the pain. I knew I was fit but I also knew I probably hadn’t done the volume I would have liked to. Going into the race with no preconceptions meant there wasn’t too much that surprised me. Tamsin Lewis did her first Ironman just before me and she said that it’s not as bad as people say; it’s all in the last hour, maybe two hours that it hurts. What I found really mentally taxing was that the bike course is three laps; so the first lap was fine, the second lap was mainly fine, but by the time the third lap came, it was just really mentally taxing to be going past athletes at the back of the field. They are not the worst because you can just pass them, but when you start passing male age groupers, they have got big egos, it’s quite stressful because then they overtake you again after you’ve overtaken them. You even get that with some of the pro men as well; there was one pro man that came absolutely pelting on the first lap of the bike, and then on the second lap of the bike I thought I was catching one of the girls but it was him; and as soon as I overtook him he overtook me and then he put the power down. Funnily enough he died on the run. I got really frustrated and I was quite upset with all the drafting after the race. Thankfully I surprised myself in the sense that it didn’t hurt as much as I thought. I suppose if anything, the whole race flew by and I hadn’t expected that.” She finished in third place with a quick time of 9:03, one of the fastest debuts by a British woman.

SusiePodium
Susie on the podium in Barcelona, soaking winner Eva Wutti.

Next Ironman: SouthAfrica 2015

Going into IM Barcelona, Susie hadn’t given qualifying for Kona much thought. “I knew a decent result combined with my points from Mt. Tremblant would put me in a good position to qualify for Kona. But at the same time I had never done an Ironman and it seemed like a very long day ahead of me.  I wasn’t even sure if I would want to do another Ironman again, let alone Kona!” After her great result in Barcelona, she decided to tackle Kona qualifying in earnest. “My Barcelona build up and race was very much experimental and a bonus.  For Ironman South Africa I was committed to the goal of qualifying for Kona. Do well in South Africa and the pressure is off, don’t do so well and I’d have to think up a new plan to qualify under pressure!”
How did she go into the race compared to Barcelona? “My approach to IM South Africa couldn’t have been further from my approach to Barcelona. I had South Africa 70.3 (in January 2015) and Ironman South Africa (in late March) on my race calendar from November 2014 so I was able to focus on it and build up to it as a priority race.  My sessions were tailored to Ironman from February after the 70.3 in January. This time if I didn’t do well there were no excuses of lack of prep!”
“As a Regional Championship race the build up for South Africa was slightly different as the field was so much stronger.  Both Eva Wutti and Camila Pedersen who had beaten me in Barcelona were racing in addition to about another eight or so who I felt on a good day could contend for a top ten at Kona. As nobody expected me to be on the podium my build up was probably easier than the other girls as I didn’t have many commitments the days before the race. I knew my training had been going well, but I wasn’t sure exactly how that would play out on race day.”
She was able to deliver another great performance at IM South Africa – all day she was racing very smart.

SusieFalco
Susie on her cool Falco beam bike.

She came off the bike in sixth place and then had a great run. “When I heard that Lucy [Gossage] was in second, I was in fourth at the time, and I thought ‚Lucy can’t get on the podium and not me.‘ And then I was running and she saw that I was gaining on her and then she ran harder. I think we both ran each other onto the podium.” With the fastest run of the day (3:03, almost six minutes faster than her marathon in Barcelona) she was able to run herself onto the podium with a time of 9:33, in a stronger field and on a much slower course than in Barcelona. With 2.890 KPR points for her third place, she was able to increase her total score to 5.650 points – in safe territory for a Kona slot.

Working towards Kona

Susie won’t be racing another Ironman before Kona. “I don’t know how some athletes do so many Ironmans.  They’re brutal and although I’ve loved them it’s taken me some time to recover.  I will focus on shorter races through the summer. At the moment I will definitely do 70.3 Staffordshire (June 14) and hope to defend my title at 70.3 Norway (July 5). I plan to race the 70.3 Championships (Aug 30) assuming it fits with where I am for Kona prep.  It’s in Austria so I’d love to do it. Then I’m going to Kona two weeks before; I’ve just booked my flights.”
“I’m not sure at the moment how to prepare for Kona (Oct 10). In terms of training I will most likely follow a similar plan as the run up to South Africa building in some learning points from the build up and race.  The UK’s climate isn’t exactly well known for its heat and humidity so I will definitely be taking some time to train somewhere hot and humid.”
What expectations does she have for Kona? “I’ve always raced well in the heat and I think the course suits me, but predicting my end result is too difficult. What everyone tells me is it takes a long time to learn to race well in Kona. Think Chris McCormack and all these amazing people that have done incredibly well at Kona, it took them a good few years to really get it right.”
A lot of people also say that the race is much more mentally taxing as there is a big strong field that will be close together for most of the day. “I remember at Mount Tremblant, I came out in quite a big group after the swim, it makes it really hard to find a space where you are comfortable and you are not surging to get past ten girls. It will be interesting to see how that affects the race dynamics.”
Any plans for 2016? “Ask me at the end of October. I don’t really know at the moment. For this year, my goal was to qualify to go to Kona and see how I get on.”

Looking Forward

What will Susie be able to do in Kona? As always with Kona, it’s almost impossible to tell. She is aware of this herself: “From what I hear about Kona it’s such an unpredictable race even for athletes that have already raced Kona.” She has a few things going in her favor: She has raced well in the heat, and her run strength will be an important asset to do well in Kona. Tri247’s John Levison agrees: “She is not a front pack swimmer, so that will perhaps be magnified a little in Kona, but she is solid and not ‘weak’ – so will likely have some good company with her. Kona is always a lottery – but if I look at 2014 and see [slower swim] splits for [front finishers] Julia Gajer (6th), Liz Lyles (7th), Corinne Abraham (11th, and not really a good day for her), then a Top10 doesn’t seem impossible if she can be strong across the board. Her South Africa run (faster than Lucy) was very impressive, and suggests she’s got increased strength, fitness and confidence since Barcelona.” Lucy is also quite optimistic for Susie’s potential in Kona: “Susie’s very very strong on the flat on the bike and now she’s cracked her run I definitely think she’s got a chance of a top 10 in Kona this year. In the future who knows – I think it depends how much her run can improve. Definitely top 5 one day if she doesn’t get injured. I’ll be watching from the oncology clinic when she does!”
I’m a bit more cautious about Susie’s chances in Kona 2015. Her slower swim will probably leave her a few minutes behind: Based on her swim times so far (58:43 in Barcelona and 57:52 in South Africa) I expect her to swim at slightly over one hour in the slower Kona conditions. She’ll loose some more time on the bike, and even with a 5:15 (she rode a 5:25:54 in South Africa) she’ll be outside of the Top20 into T2. Having only raced in the smaller and less competitive fields in Barcelona and South Africa, this will be a new situation for her, and it’s impossible to tell how she’ll be able to deal with it. If she runs at the level she has shown, she’ll run under 3:10 and should finish around twentieth place with a total time of 9:30. In Kona a few minutes can make a big difference, so with a few more improvements in the remaining five months to Kona and maybe a good day in October, she could finish between tenth and fifteenth place. Anything beyond that is probably not realistic for her first Kona appearance.

A big thank you to Susie for taking the time to answer my questions through email and Skype. All photos have been provided by her.

Ironman Texas 2015 (May 16th) – Predictions

Let us know your top picks for IM Texas at IM Predictions!

IMTexasUpdate: Unfortunately, Linsey Corbin had to withdraw a second time within a few days before a Regional Championship. Other DNS are Trevor Delsaut and Danielle Mack.

Previous Winners

Year Male Winner Time Female Winner Time
2011 Eneko Llanos (ESP) 08:08:20 Catriona Morrison (GBR) 08:57:51
2012 Jordan Rapp (USA) 08:10:44 Mary Beth Ellis (USA) 08:54:58
2013 Paul Amey (GBR) 08:25:06 Rachel Joyce (GBR) 08:49:14
2014 Bevan Docherty (NZL) 08:09:37 Kelly Williamson (USA) 08:54:42

Last Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Bevan Docherty NZL 00:47:55 04:26:59 02:49:17 08:09:37
2 Matthew Russell USA 00:55:18 04:21:28 02:52:44 08:14:53
3 Justin Daerr USA 00:52:09 04:28:24 02:52:16 08:17:29

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Kelly Williamson USA 00:51:49 05:03:51 02:54:46 08:54:42
2 Julia Gajer GER 00:52:36 04:53:43 03:09:34 09:00:51
3 Amber Ferreira USA 00:52:58 05:02:16 03:11:24 09:11:48

In 2012, Haley Chura swam a 50:22 when she was still an agegrouper.

Course Records

Leg Gender Record Athlete Date
Total overall 08:08:20 Eneko Llanos 2011-05-21
Swim overall 00:46:20 John Flanagan 2011-05-21
Bike overall 04:18:17 Mathias Hecht 2012-05-19
Run overall 02:41:38 Matt Hanson 2014-05-17
Total female 08:49:14 Rachel Joyce 2013-05-18
Swim female 00:51:49 Kelly Williamson 2014-05-17
Bike female 04:42:29 Rachel Joyce 2013-05-18
Run female 02:51:46 Caitlin Snow 2012-05-19

Course Rating

The Course Rating for IM Texas is 11:58, mainly because of a fast bike leg.

Race Adjustments for IM Texas

Year Adjustment Swim Adj. Bike Adj. Run Adj. # of Athletes Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating
2011 11:49 -02:46 16:30 -01:41 38 11:49 -02:46 16:30 -01:41
2012 12:31 -01:24 13:44 02:53 23 12:10 -02:05 15:07 00:36
2013 06:58 -01:46 14:28 02:24 24 10:26 -01:59 14:54 01:12
2014 16:33 00:33 15:59 03:53 36 11:58 -01:21 15:10 01:52

KPR points and Prize Money

IM Texas is a P-4000 race. It has a total prize purse of 150.000 US$. As a Regional Championship, the Pro winners receive an automatic Kona slot.

Male Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Overall
1 1 Jordan Rapp USA 08:12:26 08:26:02 00:53:08 04:17:01 02:57:18 11
2 6 Andreas Raelert GER 08:14:14 08:26:06 00:50:18 04:25:13 02:53:42 12
3 2 Faris Al-Sultan GER 08:16:09 08:33:53 00:49:19 04:23:00 02:58:49 (30)
4 4 Ben Hoffman USA 08:18:33 08:31:06 00:50:39 04:26:44 02:56:10 21
5 8 Ronnie Schildknecht SUI 08:18:53 08:26:54 00:53:00 04:25:44 02:55:08 14
6 3 Justin Daerr USA 08:23:25 08:43:24 00:54:11 04:28:54 02:55:20 56
7 9 Victor Del Corral ESP 08:25:07 08:34:21 00:56:51 04:31:26 02:51:50 32
8 22 Jeremy Jurkiewicz FRA 08:26:58 08:34:31 00:49:08 04:37:41 02:55:09 34
9 5 Chris McDonald AUS 08:28:29 08:49:52 00:54:17 04:28:09 03:01:02 84
10 24 David Plese SLO 08:28:35 08:38:56 00:54:41 04:30:34 02:58:19 45
11 11 Pedro Gomes POR 08:29:53 08:53:39 00:51:39 04:30:25 03:02:49 101
12 19 Matt Hanson USA 08:31:28 08:48:04 00:55:53 04:42:25 02:48:10 77
13 7 Matthew Russell USA 08:31:58 08:50:50 00:59:26 04:29:10 02:58:22 88
14 27 Jonathan Shearon USA 08:33:44 08:54:33 00:54:36 04:29:22 03:04:46 108
15 28 Joe Skipper GBR 08:34:39 08:47:31 00:55:38 04:37:39 02:56:22 74
16 14 Barrett Brandon USA 08:34:42 08:56:56 00:50:58 04:38:05 03:00:39 (119)
17 18 Trevor Delsaut FRA 08:36:03 08:53:56 00:55:17 04:37:34 02:58:12 103
18 20 Jarmo Hast FIN 08:37:09 08:52:34 00:52:22 04:39:42 03:00:05 97
19 26 Mike Schifferle SUI 08:48:30 09:03:40 01:02:14 04:35:28 03:05:47 148
20 21 Chad Holderbaum USA 08:50:13 09:13:43 00:56:26 04:38:26 03:10:21 191
21 29 Todd Skipworth AUS 08:54:04 09:16:33 00:47:24 04:40:45 03:20:56 (201)
22 12 Blake Becker USA 08:59:06 09:31:47 00:54:36 04:46:06 03:13:23 265
23 17 Matthew Curbeau USA 09:05:25 09:30:56 01:00:24 04:43:52 03:16:09 260
24 13 Raymond Botelho USA 09:07:15 09:41:21 00:55:58 04:38:20 03:27:58 302
25 32 Patrick Schuster USA 09:07:27 09:41:26 01:04:24 04:40:11 03:17:52 304
26 31 Patrick Wheeler USA 09:08:31 09:24:57 00:57:54 04:54:48 03:10:48 245
27 23 Peter Kotland CZE 09:48:10 10:04:49 00:59:09 05:03:09 03:40:52 386
10 Lionel Sanders CAN n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
15 Patrice Brisindi CAN n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
16 Timothy Clarke USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
25 Mario Radevic DEU n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
30 Jorge Vazquez MEX n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)

Female Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Overall
1 41 Rachel Joyce GBR 08:49:28 09:07:01 00:53:20 04:44:47 03:06:21 3
2 40 Kelly Williamson USA 09:07:38 09:31:13 00:53:50 05:09:21 02:59:27 27
3 46 Linsey Corbin USA 09:08:08 09:20:20 00:59:22 04:56:30 03:07:16 12
4 43 Corinne Abraham GBR 09:09:04 09:24:14 01:00:45 04:58:01 03:05:18 17
5 42 Leanda Cave GBR 09:10:26 09:22:15 00:52:19 04:56:51 03:16:15 14
6 47 Heather Jackson USA 09:11:03 09:34:51 00:59:54 04:43:59 03:22:09 (34)
7 49 Angela Naeth CAN 09:15:06 09:34:26 01:00:20 04:47:09 03:22:36 32
8 51 Sofie Goos BEL 09:18:19 09:36:50 00:57:32 04:58:40 03:17:07 38
9 60 Danielle Mack USA 09:20:43 09:56:23 01:04:40 04:58:48 03:12:15 81
10 44 Heather Wurtele CAN 09:21:55 09:31:08 00:57:05 04:59:19 03:20:31 26
11 45 Bree Wee USA 09:25:15 09:41:32 00:55:39 05:04:37 03:19:59 46
12 57 Katy Blakemore USA 09:25:35 09:43:40 00:54:34 05:08:15 03:17:47 50
13 59 Tamara Kozulina UKR 09:26:01 09:42:57 01:04:45 05:04:05 03:12:12 48
14 54 Sarah Piampiano USA 09:27:55 09:43:36 01:03:40 04:56:28 03:22:47 49
15 53 Rebecca Preston AUS 09:27:57 09:50:32 00:57:36 05:07:26 03:17:54 (64)
16 48 Camilla Lindholm SWE 09:37:52 10:01:07 01:11:21 05:01:57 03:19:34 89
17 63 Jessica Meyers USA 09:38:27 10:02:11 01:02:16 05:10:42 03:20:29 91
18 66 Keiko Tanaka JPN 09:43:51 10:00:13 00:57:24 05:15:40 03:25:47 85
19 55 Kaitlin Anelauskas USA 09:45:45 10:11:03 00:55:54 05:32:33 03:12:18 (111)
20 62 Jocelyn Mccauley USA 09:51:09 10:16:41 01:02:39 05:22:33 03:20:56 (122)
21 56 Anne Basso FRA 09:52:13 10:34:12 00:59:52 05:14:44 03:32:37 155
22 58 Katharina Grohmann GER 09:53:03 10:10:15 01:16:13 05:10:03 03:21:47 109
23 65 Olesya Prystayko UKR 09:55:38 10:18:43 01:03:13 05:11:21 03:36:04 128
24 67 Natasha Van der Merwe USA 10:08:59 10:37:50 01:04:50 05:12:14 03:46:55 158
25 52 Corrie Kristick USA 10:26:56 10:54:01 00:53:22 05:06:29 04:22:05 (167)
26 64 Samantha Morrison USA 12:39:38 13:12:27 00:54:51 05:35:47 06:04:00 (174)
61 Caroline Martineau CAN n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

It’s almost impossible to picks a favorite for this race, though Jordan Rapp has made clear that he is focusing on this race. Ben Hoffmann has already validated his Kona slot and may not be at his absolute best. Andreas Raelert has been struggling for a few years, but appears to be healthy and focused. In addition to these three, no one would be surprised if Faris Al-Sultan, Justin Daerr, Ronnie Schildknecht or Victor Del Corral would win this races.

  • Jordan Rapp: 31% (2-1)
  • Ben Hoffman: 17% (5-1)
  • Andreas Raelert: 14% (6-1)
  • Faris Al-Sultan: 11% (8-1)
  • Justin Daerr: 9% (10-1)
  • Ronnie Schildknecht: 7% (13-1)
  • Victor Del Corral: 4% (26-1)
In addition are IM winners Chris McDonald, Matthew Russell, Lionel Sanders (even if his win was the non-swim-IM Florida) and Matt Hanson.

Female Race Participants

As seems to be getting the norm in the Regional Championships, the women’s field seems to be even deeper than the men’s field. Based on the data, Rachel Joyce is a step above the rest of the field, but she will probably be more focused on a good race in October than improving her course record from 2012. Corinne Abraham has shown great potential, winning two Regional Championships in the last two years. Linsey Corbin was ready to race IM South Africa but caught an infection shortly before the race. (She’s had some more bad luck before Texas and had to withdraw once again.) Leanda Cave hasn’t raced an IM this early in the season – she is usually strong in October/November. Defending Champion Kelly Williamson will be looking to repeat her fantastic performance from a year ago. Angela Naeth has taken last season to “learn IM racing” – ending the year with winning IM Chattanooga.

  • Rachel Joyce: 64% (1-1)
  • Corinne Abraham: 11% (8-1)
  • Linsey Corbin: 6% (16-1)
  • Leanda Cave: 6% (16-1)
  • Kelly Williamson: 5% (19-1)
  • Angela Naeth: 3% (31-1)

In addition to these athletes there are Heather Jackson, Sofie Goos, Danielle Mack (nee Kehoe), Bree Wee, Sarah Piampiano and especially Heather Wurtele that would love to play a big role in this race.

Ironman Australia 2015 – Analyzing Results

Course Conditions

This year’s race in Port Macquarie had pretty slow conditions, especially on the run. A low adjustment of -2:35 (mainly caused by a -1:16 run) leads to a new course rating of 4:15. After a few year’s of smaller fields (9 athletes in 2012 and 8 in 2013), this year had a larger field with 16 Pros.

Male Race Results

Paul Ambrose took the lead in the second half of the bike, building a lead of almost 7 minutes into T2. Luke Bell was working hard to close the gap and whittled it down to about a minute with 5k to go. Paul was then able to find another gear and won by just over two minutes while Luke Bell had to settle for second. Brian Fuller finished third, resulting in an all-Australian podium.

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to expected Prize Money
1 Paul Ambrose AUS 00:47:34 04:39:24 03:05:22 08:35:53 -12:50 US$ 10000
2 Luke Bell AUS 00:44:58 04:49:01 03:01:01 08:38:34 -14:46 US$ 5000
3 Brian Fuller AUS 00:48:28 04:49:53 03:08:30 08:49:39 -14:36 US$ 3250
4 Luke Martin AUS 00:50:30 04:54:20 03:08:13 08:56:19 00:32 US$ 2500
5 Nick Baldwin SEY 00:48:24 04:46:59 03:21:11 08:59:44 06:07 US$ 1750
6 Carl Read NZL 00:50:28 05:07:47 02:58:47 09:02:08 04:31 US$ 1250
7 Petr Vabrousek CZE 00:52:43 05:01:17 03:18:07 09:16:07 14:01 US$ 750
8 Dan McGuigan AUS 00:58:38 04:51:16 03:23:50 09:18:50 -40:59 US$ 500
9 Pete Jacobs AUS 00:44:59 04:57:28 03:53:06 09:38:34 49:52  
10 Graham O’Grady NZL 00:44:56 04:59:05 03:51:24 09:38:34 08:22  
11 Matt Randall NZL 00:55:20 04:59:21 03:54:28 09:52:35 00:28  
12 Josef Svoboda CZE 01:09:27 06:07:50 04:16:34 11:42:28 -15:48
  Matt Burton AUS 00:52:37 04:56:32   DNF  
  Peter Robertson AUS 00:48:27 05:05:48   DNF  
  Lachlan Kerin AUS 00:48:21     DNF  

Both Luke Bell (3.665) and Paul Ambrose (2.875) will some more Kona points for a safe July slot. However, Pete Jacobs validated his Automatic Qualifier slot with a 9th place finish in 9:38. He was in the lead until 120k on the bike, but said on Twitter after the race that he ran out of gas at that point. 

Female Race Results

Lisa Marangon was leading the race into T2, but had to end her race early in the run. At that point, Jessica Fleming took the lead, but she was run down by Michelle Bremer who won the race with the fastest marathon. Jessica finished second, while Michelle Gailey took the third place in her come-back race.

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to expected Prize Money
1 Michelle Bremer NZL 00:53:13 05:18:15 03:23:17 09:38:24 -07:28 US$ 10000
2 Jessica Fleming AUS 00:56:26 05:11:50 03:30:35 09:42:18 -10:34 US$ 5000
3 Michelle Gailey AUS 00:52:54 05:24:59 03:28:56 09:50:51 00:01 US$ 3250
4 Marie Sorrell NZL 00:55:52 05:24:53 03:32:24 09:57:06 n/a US$ 2500
5 Caroline Gregory USA 00:53:15 05:44:45 03:35:35 10:16:56 -03:13 US$ 1750
6 Michelle Wu AUS 00:53:18 05:54:08 03:31:52 10:24:49 19:30 US$ 1250
  Lisa Marangon AUS 00:51:59 05:13:34   DNF  
  Christie Sym AUS 00:53:01 05:16:57   DNF  
  Marina Jurjevic AUS 01:00:14     DNF  

At this point, it seems unlikely that any of the female Pro athletes from IM Australia will be able to get a Kona slot.

Number of IMs before Kona

In my post on Why I am #50WomenToKona I mentioned that Kona WPROs raced more often than their male counterparts:

For Kona 2014, the average number of IMs of the male Pros is 2.8, while the female Pros had raced 3.4 IMs.

Some of the feedback I have received indicate that this not widely known, so this post adds some more detail.

First of all, a clear definition of what I mean by “number of IMs before Kona 2014”. Here are the conditions I have used for the averages used in my post:

  • races on or after August 31st 2013 (the date of IM Japan, the start of Kona 2014 qualifying)
  • races before October 11th 2014 (the date of the Kona race)
  • Ironman-distance races (regardless of wether they are “official” Ironman races or races run by other organizations such as Challenge)
  • races that an athlete started (so including finishes as well as DNFs – both are counting towards the “fatigue” an athlete has to deal with before Kona)

Some of these conditions can be fiddled with, but the overall result is still the same – WPRO have raced around 0.5 more IMs than their male counterparts. Here’s a quick comparison of different conditions:

Male Average Female average
IM-distance starts 2.87 3.44
Ironman starts 2.75 3.25
Ironman finishes 2.40 2.94
Ironman finishes up to August 2.40 2.92
Ironman results counting in KPR 2.28 2.79

Staying with my original definition of “IM-distance starts”, here is a look at the distribution of athletes for the number of races before Kona:

IMsBeforeKona

You can clearly see that the main cluster of male athletes has done two or three IMs, while most of the women have done three or four races.

Here is a detailed look at the athletes in each of the groups:

No of Races Male Female
1 Terenzo Bozzone
Richie Cunningham
Jan Frodeno
Paul Matthews
Andy Potts
Timothy Reed
Catriona Morrison
2 Bart Aernouts
Craig Alexander
Igor Amorelli
Kyle Buckingham
Daniel Fontana
Joe Gambles
Ben Hoffman
Jeremy Jurkiewicz
Sebastian Kienle
Timothy O’Donnell
Filip Ospaly
Ivan Rana
Andrew Starykowicz
Boris Stein
Tim Van Berkel
Frederik Van Lierde
Cyril Viennot
Corinne Abraham
Liz Blatchford
Leanda Cave
Daniela Ryf
Caitlin Snow
Kelly Williamson
Heather Wurtele
3 Faris Al-Sultan
Marko Albert
Tyler Butterfield
James Cunnama
Victor Del Corral
Bevan Docherty
Nils Frommhold
Elliot Holtham
Pete Jacobs
Christian Kramer
Eneko Llanos
Chris McDonald
Luke McKenzie
TJ Tollakson
Maik Twelsiek
Marino Vanhoenacker
Michael Weiss
Simone Braendli
Mirinda Carfrae
Linsey Corbin
Mary Beth Ellis
Lucy Gossage
Rachel Joyce
Meredith Kessler
Caroline Steffen
Amanda Stevens
Jodie Swallow
Yvonne Van Vlerken
4 Paul Ambrose
Romain Guillaume
Marek Jaskolka
David Plese
Andreas Raelert
Ronnie Schildknecht
Axel Zeebroek
Natascha Badmann
Gina Crawford
Amber Ferreira
Julia Gajer
Sofie Goos
Asa Lundstroem
Elizabeth Lyles
Kristin Moeller
Kim Schwabenbauer
Beth Shutt
Michelle Vesterby
Bree Wee
5 Christian Brader
Justin Daerr
Daniel Halksworth
Melanie Burke
Katja Konschak
Lisa Roberts
6 Sara Gross
7 Harry Wiltshire Jackie Hering
8 Matthew Russell

Not all of this racing has been motivated by a desire to qualify for Kona – of course there are other reasons for racing such as trying to win an Ironman or to earn some prize money. Looking at those athletes with five or more races, I think that they were motivated more by trying to qualify than by making money: Only Sara Gross has made more than 20,000$ – she made 40,000$ by winning IM Brasil and IM Mt. Tremblant – but she to race Mt. Tremblant in order to qualify.

In summary, the data shows that women Pros raced more often than their male counterparts. The data also indicates that this is a result of the lower number of Kona slots for women and the resulting higher number of points needed to qualify.

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