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Ironman Hawaii 2015: Analyzing Results

Race Conditions

I have posted some initial analysis during the race, this post is based on the final results, taking all Pro finishers into account:

  • The 2015 race was considerably slower than last year – the tough conditions lead to an adjustment of -11:30, more than seven minutes slower than last year.
  • While the swim was about as slow as last year, the bike was a bit faster. Having followed the race I think that athletes were going a bit harder than normal, rather than the conditions being more favorable.
  • The main difference to the last years was on the run: An adjustment of -5:36 shows that times were around six minutes slower. This is reflected in the fastest run times of 2:49:52 by David McNamee and 3:06:25 by Liz Blatchford.

The harder run also lead to a large number of DNFs: While last year’s DNF rates were 20% (2013) and 23% (2014), this year there were 32% of Pro athletes that did not finish (30 out of 94 Pro starters).

Male Race Results

Jan Frodeno was the clear favorite, and he was close to the front for the whole day. There was a brief period when Tim O’Donnell was trying to get away on the bike, but he closed the gap with Sebastian Kienle into T2 and quickly pulled away on the run. His lead was never big enough to be comfortable, but in the end Frodo won by just over three minutes. Second place went to Andreas Raelert who had the best run of the top finishers – good to see him back on the podium after struggling for the last two years! “TO” earned third place and top US finisher after being active for most of the bike and then digging deep on the run.

Defending Champion Sebastian Kienle had a good swim and a good bike ride, but never managed to build a gap and then struggled a bit on the run, eventually dropping back to 8th place.

KonaMenPodium

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to expected Prize Money
1 Jan Frodeno GER 00:50:50 04:27:27 02:52:21 08:14:40 -04:10 US$ 120000
2 Andreas Raelert GER 00:52:24 04:30:52 02:50:02 08:17:43 -12:56 US$ 60000
3 Timothy O’Donnell USA 00:52:24 04:26:13 02:55:46 08:18:50 -23:41 US$ 40000
4 Andy Potts USA 00:50:56 04:32:41 02:53:45 08:21:25 -13:53 US$ 22500
5 Tyler Butterfield BMU 00:52:33 04:29:35 02:56:19 08:23:09 -18:44 US$ 19000
6 Cyril Viennot FRA 00:52:35 04:34:27 02:53:05 08:25:05 -21:47 US$ 16000
7 Eneko Llanos ESP 00:52:36 04:26:56 03:04:10 08:28:10 -06:26 US$ 14000
8 Sebastian Kienle GER 00:52:36 04:25:53 03:06:08 08:29:43 03:07 US$ 12500
9 Brent McMahon CAN 00:52:26 04:27:51 03:06:02 08:30:13 08:47 US$ 11000
10 Boris Stein GER 00:57:27 04:30:48 02:58:48 08:31:43 -13:20 US$ 10000
11 David McNamee GBR 00:52:31 04:45:49 02:49:52 08:32:27 -07:44
12 Ivan Rana ESP 00:52:25 04:45:42 02:51:56 08:34:27 -01:24
13 Joe Skipper GBR 00:57:31 04:28:34 03:04:09 08:36:02 -13:09
14 Lionel Sanders CAN 01:01:10 04:35:17 02:54:41 08:36:26 -15:30
15 Tim Don GBR 00:52:23 04:38:36 03:01:51 08:39:05 -08:40
16 Michael Weiss AUT 01:01:13 04:28:34 03:09:19 08:44:30 08:00
17 Miquel Blanchart Tinto ESP 00:52:43 04:53:46 02:54:28 08:45:21 -03:30
18 Pedro Gomes POR 00:56:37 04:47:55 02:57:19 08:46:14 -07:17
19 Romain Guillaume FRA 00:52:21 04:31:12 03:18:19 08:46:56 -07:40
20 Andi Boecherer GER 00:52:39 04:27:58 03:22:36 08:49:20 08:01
21 Jordan Rapp USA 00:57:00 04:39:22 03:08:35 08:50:21 13:28
22 Maik Twelsiek GER 00:57:01 04:25:10 03:25:15 08:52:11 02:37
23 Jeff Symonds CAN 00:52:41 05:04:05 02:50:15 08:52:18 11:51
24 Fredrik Croneborg SWE 00:56:44 04:45:16 03:11:25 08:58:46 04:38
25 Frederik Van Lierde BEL 00:52:28 04:27:18 03:39:03 09:03:25 34:03
26 Guilherme Manocchio BRA 00:56:47 04:47:15 03:14:55 09:04:19 09:01
27 Ben Hoffman USA 00:52:29 04:28:51 03:39:33 09:05:22 20:55
28 Justin Daerr USA 00:56:55 04:52:17 03:19:30 09:13:58 19:21
29 Nils Frommhold GER 00:52:20 04:42:06 03:37:08 09:16:44 49:42
30 Kyle Buckingham ZAF 00:56:40 04:47:52 03:36:27 09:26:16 40:59
31 Daniel Bretscher USA 00:57:07 05:04:37 03:20:33 09:27:12 33:10
32 Jan Van Berkel SUI 00:53:35 04:50:03 03:39:56 09:27:59 33:03
33 Igor Amorelli BRA 00:52:30 04:34:56 04:01:57 09:34:17 47:19
34 Christian Kramer GER 00:52:21 04:43:43 03:57:27 09:40:44 55:43
35 Dylan McNeice NZL 00:50:45 04:55:20 04:07:21 09:58:17 59:36
36 Tim Van Berkel AUS 00:52:30 04:35:34 04:25:09 09:58:18 1:14:08
37 Matt Chrabot USA 01:01:04 04:53:22 04:05:25 10:07:02 1:20:47
38 Fraser Cartmell GBR 00:52:26 05:12:57 03:56:33 10:07:08 1:09:50
Marino Vanhoenacker BEL 00:56:41 04:27:26 DNF
Bart Aernouts BEL 00:57:19 04:37:01 DNF
Matt Trautman ZAF 00:56:55 04:40:26 DNF
Callum Millward NZL 00:52:38 04:45:41 DNF
Jeremy Jurkiewicz FRA 00:52:23 04:46:58 DNF
Ronnie Schildknecht SUI 00:57:21 04:43:55 DNF
Luke Bell AUS 00:52:37 04:49:31 DNF
Brad Kahlefeldt AUS 00:52:24 04:58:54 DNF
Viktor Zyemtsev USA 00:56:58 04:59:59 DNF
Bas Diederen NED 00:52:31 05:07:31 DNF
Clemente Alonso McKernan ESP 00:52:32 05:44:31 DNF
Luke McKenzie AUS 00:52:28 DNF
Denis Chevrot FRA 00:52:28 DNF
Paul Ambrose AUS 00:52:32 DNF
Cameron Brown NZL 00:57:09 DNF
Matt Hanson USA 01:01:11 DNF

Female Race Results

Daniela Ryf was the clear favorite after her amazing last two years of long distance racing. Similar to last year she took control of the bike after half the distance and built a gap to the rest of the field. Others tried to limit the distance to her but then struggled on the run. Daniela, however, was strong enough to post the third fastest marathon (by 12 seconds) and the only sub-9  finish of the day, winning by 13 minutes. Rachel Joyce had the best run of the women trying to limit the gap to Daniela on the bike – a satisfying end to a season where she struggled with a run injury for a while. Liz Blatchford had the best run of the day and ran herself onto the podium.

Defending Champion Mirinda Carfrae struggled with back issues, after she lost some time on the swim and some more in the first half of the bike, she ended her title defense at the turnaround in Hawi. She made it back to Kona in time to cheer for husband TO on the run.

KonaFemalePodium

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to expected Prize Money
1 Daniela Ryf SUI 00:56:14 04:50:46 03:06:37 08:57:57 -16:44 US$ 120000
2 Rachel Joyce GBR 00:56:11 05:01:29 03:08:42 09:10:59 -08:43 US$ 60000
3 Liz Blatchford AUS 00:56:13 05:07:25 03:06:25 09:14:52 -14:04 US$ 40000
4 Michelle Vesterby DEN 00:56:11 05:00:41 03:17:14 09:18:50 -16:18 US$ 22500
5 Heather Jackson USA 01:04:36 05:04:43 03:07:53 09:21:45 -19:00 US$ 19000
6 Susie Cheetham GBR 00:57:39 05:14:33 03:06:55 09:23:50 -07:37 US$ 16000
7 Sarah Piampiano USA 01:10:01 05:02:28 03:06:33 09:24:32 -24:48 US$ 14000
8 Camilla Pedersen DEN 00:56:14 04:59:17 03:25:23 09:25:41 -05:32 US$ 12500
9 Caroline Steffen SUI 00:56:16 05:10:53 03:15:27 09:27:54 04:45 US$ 11000
10 Lucy Gossage GBR 01:05:08 05:02:40 03:15:51 09:28:36 -01:46 US$ 10000
11 Asa Lundstroem SWE 01:05:18 05:04:37 03:16:05 09:30:43 -15:44
12 Annabel Luxford AUS 00:56:08 05:04:00 03:27:50 09:32:43 -02:14
13 Mary Beth Ellis USA 00:56:16 04:59:29 03:33:37 09:33:34 04:18
14 Elizabeth Lyles USA 01:00:04 05:16:12 03:14:06 09:35:07 -05:08
15 Beth Gerdes USA 01:05:18 05:11:45 03:16:49 09:39:14 -09:54
16 Eva Wutti AUT 01:05:22 05:22:38 03:10:18 09:43:25 20:08
17 Britta Martin NZL 01:05:20 05:18:07 03:18:51 09:47:31 04:07
18 Kelly Williamson USA 00:59:54 05:35:52 03:10:12 09:51:01 09:26
19 Caitlin Snow USA 01:01:16 05:28:06 03:24:44 10:00:15 14:48
20 Dimity-Lee Duke AUS 01:05:22 05:24:04 03:27:44 10:02:57 05:02
21 Mareen Hufe GER 01:05:12 04:59:15 03:55:52 10:05:01 16:07
22 Dede Griesbauer USA 00:56:39 05:11:08 03:56:34 10:09:49 07:35
23 Ruth Brennan Morrey USA 01:16:52 05:19:24 03:39:57 10:22:57 42:45
24 Laurel Wassner USA 00:57:42 05:36:59 03:51:30 10:33:49 37:48
25 Ariane Monticeli BRA 01:05:12 05:15:19 05:16:01 11:41:53 1:43:44
26 Meredith Kessler USA 00:56:13 05:37:39 05:44:57 12:26:22 1:50:05
Jodie Swallow GBR 00:55:04 04:58:48 DNF
Angela Naeth CAN 01:02:28 04:54:54 DNF
Gina Crawford NZL 00:56:18 05:21:52 DNF
Diana Riesler GER 01:04:20 05:14:59 DNF
Julia Gajer GER 00:57:38 05:42:55 DNF
Shiao-yu Li TWN 01:16:26 05:25:41 DNF
Astrid Stienen GER 01:09:53 05:44:15 DNF
Leanda Cave GBR 00:56:07 DNF
Haley Chura USA 00:56:22 DNF
Amanda Stevens USA 00:57:42 DNF
Heather Wurtele CAN 00:59:57 DNF
Mirinda Carfrae AUS 01:00:55 DNF
Tine Deckers BEL 01:05:12 DNF
Sofie Goos BEL 01:05:15 DNF

Photo Credit: Ironman

Kona 2015: Preliminary Bike Analysis (Women)

With the Top 16 of the women in, here are a few observations about the women’s bike leg:

  • The bike for the women has been very fast, most of the women raced considerable faster than their expected time.
  • Best relative performances have been by Mareen Hufe (6:45 faster) and Michelle Vesterby (7:18 faster).
  • Only Carolin Steffen has been considerably slower than what I would have expected based on her previous times (11 minutes slower). Susie Cheetham was slower by four minutes, but is still in a good position for a Top 10 finish.

Top 10 Projection

Here are the current projections for Top 10 on the female side (with Angela Naeth a DNF):

  1. Daniela Ryf SUI 09:02:12
  2. Rachel Joyce GBR 09:10:21
  3. Jodie Swallow GBR 09:13:37
  4. Liz Blatchford AUS 09:19:07
  5. Mary Beth Ellis USA 09:20:08
  6. Camilla Pedersen DEN 09:20:51
  7. Michelle Vesterby DEN 09:20:53
  8. Lucy Gossage GBR 09:23:35
  9. Caroline Steffen SUI 09:24:06
  10. Susie Cheetham GBR 09:27:34

Bike Analysis

Rank  Name Nation Bike Bike Diff
1 Daniela Ryf  SUI 04:50:46  -04:37 
2 Angela Naeth  CAN 04:54:54  -04:10 
3 Jodie Swallow  GBR 04:58:48  -04:05 
4 Mareen Hufe  GER 04:59:15  -06:45 
5 Camilla Pedersen  DEN 04:59:17  -05:55 
6 Mary Beth Ellis  USA 04:59:29  -04:43 
7 Michelle Vesterby  DEN 05:00:41  -07:18 
8 Rachel Joyce GBR 05:01:29 -01:32
9 Lucy Gossage  GBR 05:02:40  -04:07 
10 Annabel Luxford AUS 05:04:00 02:46
11 Heather Jackson USA 05:04:43 01:03
12 Liz Blatchford  AUS 05:07:25  -03:39 
13 Caroline Steffen  SUI 05:10:53  11:01 
14 Dede Griesbauer  USA 05:11:08  -05:53 
15 Susie Cheetham  GBR 05:14:33  04:42 
16 Elizabeth Lyles USA 05:18:32 02:22

Kona 2015: Preliminary Bike Analysis (Men)

After the first men are in, here are some observations:

  • Similar to the swim, conditions were pretty typical for Kona – meaning that a course record is probably not in the cards.
  • So far Maik Twelsiek posted the fastest bike split in 4:25:10, nearly 6 minutes than expected
  • Sebastian Kienle rode a bit quicker than Jan Frodeno, but was still 1:30 slower than expected.
  • Jan Frodeno was more than two minutes quicker than expected, he is projected to be the winner this year. But of course the marathon still has to be run!
  • Tim O’Donnell and Joe Skipper were 13:42 and 10:36 quicker than expected – hopefully they can still have a good run!

Projected Top 10

  1. Jan Frodeno GER 08:12:50
  2. Brent McMahon CAN 08:15:42
  3. Frederik Van Lierde BEL 08:18:44
  4. Sebastian Kienle GER 08:19:12
  5. Andreas Raelert GER 08:19:39
  6. Timothy O’Donnell USA 08:21:14
  7. Andy Potts USA 08:21:35
  8. Eneko Llanos ESP 08:24:02
  9. Ben Hoffman USA 08:24:09
  10. Marino Vanhoenacker BEL 08:25:27

Bike Analysis

Rank  Name Nation Bike Bike Diff
1 Maik Twelsiek  GER 04:25:10  -05:42 
2 Sebastian Kienle GER 04:25:53 01:32
3 Timothy O’Donnell  USA 04:26:13  -13:42 
4 Eneko Llanos  ESP 04:26:56  -05:51 
5 Frederik Van Lierde BEL 04:27:18 -02:49
6 Marino Vanhoenacker BEL 04:27:26 00:57
7 Jan Frodeno GER 04:27:27 -02:20
8 Brent McMahon CAN 04:27:51 -02:20
9 Andi Boecherer  GER 04:27:58  -03:27 
10 Joe Skipper  GBR 04:28:34  -10:36 
11 Michael Weiss AUT 04:28:34 00:53
12 Ben Hoffman  USA 04:28:51  -06:49 
13 Tyler Butterfield  BMU 04:29:35  -06:42 
14 Boris Stein  GER 04:30:48  -05:10 
15 Andreas Raelert  GER 04:30:52  -04:35 
16 Romain Guillaume  FRA 04:31:12  -08:18 
17 Andy Potts  USA 04:32:41  -04:35 
18 Cyril Viennot  FRA 04:34:27  -05:54 
19 Igor Amorelli  BRA 04:34:56  -05:51 
20 Lionel Sanders CAN 04:35:17 -00:02

Kona 2015: Preliminary Swim Analysis

After the swim I did a quick analysis of the data. Here are a few quick points:

  • The swim in Kona is always slow, this year it was maybe just a little bit slower than in the last years. The 2014 adjustment was -4:46, this year’s preliminary adjustment -4:58, 12 seconds slower.
  • In the mens’s race we saw fast swims by Romain Guillaume (58 seconds faster than expected), Ben Hoffman (1:21), Paul Ambrose (1:20), Tim Berkel (1:47).
    But Sebastian Kienle had the best swim relative to expectations, 3 minutes quicker than expected!
  • Slow men’s swims were by Dylan McNeice (even though he won the swim, he was 1:02 slower than expected), Brad Kahlefeldt (1:39), Brent McMahon (1:03),
    Two strong bikers also didn’t really have a good swim: Marino Vanhoenacker (2:37) and Maik Twelsiek (2:09)
  • In the female race there were fast swims by Annabel Luxford (53 seconds faster than expected), Caroline Steffen (47 sec), Dede Griesbauer (46 sec) , Susie Cheetham (3:50) and Liz Lyles (2:25).
  • Similar to Dylan on the men’s side, Jodie Swallow won the swim but was slower than expected (by 1:31). Meredith Kessler (1:05), Haley Chura (2:17) and Amanda Stevens (2:43) also don’t have the swims they were probably looking for.

Preliminary Swim Analysis Men

Rank  Name Nation Swim Swim Diff
1  Dylan McNeice  NZL 00:50:48  01:02 
2  Jan Frodeno GER 00:50:50 -00:07
3  Andy Potts  USA 00:50:56 00:20
4  Christian Kramer  GER 00:52:21 -00:06
5  Nils Frommhold GER 00:52:23 00:21
6  Tim Don GBR 00:52:25 00:11
7  Romain Guillaume  FRA 00:52:25  -00:58 
8  Jeremy Jurkiewicz FRA 00:52:26 00:07
9  Timothy O’Donnell  USA 00:52:27 00:33
10  Andreas Raelert  GER 00:52:27 -00:34
11  Brad Kahlefeldt  AUS 00:52:27  01:39 
12  Fraser Cartmell  GBR 00:52:28 -00:28
13  Denis Chevrot FRA 00:52:28 00:31
14  Frederik Van Lierde  BEL 00:52:28 00:07
15  Ivan Rana ESP 00:52:28 00:00
16  Brent McMahon  CAN 00:52:28  01:03 
17  Luke McKenzie  AUS 00:52:30 -00:36
18  David McNamee GBR 00:52:31 00:16
19  Ben Hoffman  USA 00:52:32  -01:21 
20  Paul Ambrose AUS 00:52:32  -01:20 
21  Igor Amorelli BRA 00:52:33 00:18
22  Tim Van Berkel  AUS 00:52:33  -01:47 
23  Bas Diederen NED 00:52:35 00:19
24  Tyler Butterfield  BMU 00:52:36  -01:06 
25  Miquel Blanchart Tinto ESP 00:52:36  -01:00 
26  Sebastian Kienle  GER 00:52:36  -03:00

Swim Analysis

Rank  Name Nation Swim Swim Diff
1  Jodie Swallow  GBR 00:55:04  01:31 
2  Leanda Cave  GBR 00:56:08 00:24
3  Annabel Luxford AUS 00:56:11  -00:53 
4  Michelle Vesterby  DEN 00:56:14 -00:44
5  Rachel Joyce  GBR 00:56:14 -00:10
6  Mary Beth Ellis USA 00:56:16 00:21
7  Liz Blatchford AUS 00:56:16 00:05
8  Daniela Ryf SUI 00:56:17 -00:36
9  Camilla Pedersen DEN 00:56:17 00:12
10  Meredith Kessler  USA 00:56:17  01:05 
11  Caroline Steffen  SUI 00:56:19  -00:47 
12  Gina Crawford  NZL 00:56:21 -00:38
13  Haley Chura  USA 00:56:25  02:17 
14  Dede Griesbauer  USA 00:56:42  -00:46 
15  Julia Gajer GER 00:57:39 -00:31
16  Susie Cheetham GBR 00:57:43  -03:50 
17  Laurel Wassner USA 00:57:45  -00:56 
18  Amanda Stevens  USA 00:57:45  02:43 
19  Kelly Williamson  USA 00:59:58  01:42 
20  Heather Wurtele CAN 01:00:01 00:07
21  Elizabeth Lyles  USA 01:00:07  -02:25 
22  Mirinda Carfrae  AUS 01:00:58 00:36

Kona 2015 Profile: Jan Frodeno (GER)

FrodoPointsFrodoBib

Career Highlights

  • Olympic Champion 2008
  • 70.3 World Champion 2015

2015 Season

  • 1st 70.3 California, 70.3 Barcelona
  • 1st IM Frankfurt 7:49:48
  • 1st 70.3 Champs

FrodoFRARun

In his 2014 Ironman races, “Frodo” was forced to deal with problems: Three flats in Frankfurt led to a wheel change and lots of lost time, another flat in Kona was quickly fixed but he incurred a penalty when he went back on the course in the middle of a group. But at IM Frankfurt 2015 everything came together for him. He also showed how to beat Sebi: Frodo had the fastest swim and then hammered a new 4:08 bike course record. Sebi was one minute faster than his old bike CR, but he still lost three minutes to Frodo who sealed up the race with a 2:50 marathon, winning by almost 12 minutes.

Frodo continued his domination by winning the 70.3 Championships in Zell am See – again reaching T2 in front of Sebi and building a dominating lead in the first half of the run.

If Frodo is anywhere close to his summer shape, he’ll be hard to beat in Kona with his strength in all three legs and the flexibility that gives him. But there are very few cases of athletes doing well in a summer IM and also in Kona.

(Photo: Frodo leaving T2 at IM Germany, Credit: TriRating)

This is an excerpt from my free “Kona Rating Report” – 150+ pages with tons of information about the Kona Pro races!

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