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Ironman Melbourne 2014 (March 23rd) – Predictions

Update (March 19th): There have been a few withdrawals (thanks to Asa Lundstrom and Tammy Barker for sending me updates): Most notably, Cam Brown and Natascha Badmann are not starting. Also, Matt Burgess, Tom Rodgers and Kym Jaenke are out. 

With IM Melbourne, the first of the Regional Championships in the 2014 Qualifying cycle is coming. The opportunity to win 4.000 KPR points has attracted a lot of athletes looking to get a good part of the points need to qualify.

I also have a couple of other interesting side-projects going on around IM Melbourne: Luke Dragstra and I have set up IM-Predicitions.com, where you can submit your picks for IM Melbourne, and maybe even win a nice prize. We also have the companion IM-Predictions podcast discussing the pro field in IM Melbourne.

Previous Year’s TOP 3

If the times from last year’s race look a bit strange, that’s because the swim was shortened to about 1.7k because of rough conditions. The shortened swim also helped to “speed up“ the bike and run times.

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Eneko Llanos ESP 00:20:30 04:28:50 02:43:35 07:36:08
2 Marino Vanhoenacker BEL 00:21:45 04:22:32 02:51:28 07:38:59
3 Craig Alexander AUS 00:20:33 04:29:03 02:46:44 07:39:37

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Corinne Abraham GBR 00:28:23 04:42:09 02:56:50 08:10:56
2 Yvonne Van Vlerken NED 00:27:09 04:55:01 03:00:46 08:26:40
3 Caroline Steffen SUI 00:24:34 04:53:17 03:09:23 08:31:22

Course Records

Because of the shortened swim, I discarded all 2013 results for course records, leaving only the first edition of the race from 2012. Even these times are a bit suspicious, at a minimum the run was a bit short.

Leg Gender Record Athlete Date
Total overall 07:57:44 Craig Alexander 2012-03-24
Swim overall 00:47:13 Marko Albert 2012-03-24
Bike overall 04:24:43 Craig Alexander 2012-03-24
Run overall 02:38:46 Craig Alexander 2012-03-24
Total female 08:34:51 Caroline Steffen 2012-03-24
Swim female 00:52:34 Rachel Joyce 2012-03-24
Bike female 04:35:29 Caroline Steffen 2012-03-24
Run female 02:58:29 Mirinda Carfrae 2012-03-24

Course Rating

The Course Rating for IM Melbourne is 10:46. (As noted above, the course rating is based just on the 2012 results and may not be a good basis for the predicting the 2014 times.)

Race Adjustments for IM Melbourne

Year Adjustment Swim Adj. Bike Adj. Run Adj. # of Athletes Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating
2012 10:46 -01:21 10:45 03:50 41 10:46 -01:21 10:45 03:50

KPR points and Prize Money

IM Melbourne has 4000 KPR points for the winner. It has a total prize purse of 125k$. It is the first of the Regional Championships in the 2014, attracting an interesting field.

Male Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating Rank
1 36 Paul Matthews AUS 08:12:15 08:22:15 00:46:30 04:38:36 02:50:41 (2)
2 2 Craig Alexander AUS 08:12:45 08:22:46 00:47:51 04:38:39 02:52:18 3
3 1 Marino Vanhoenacker BEL 08:14:47 08:24:51 00:48:42 04:32:00 02:59:10 6
4 5 Dirk Bockel LUX 08:16:17 08:26:22 00:47:28 04:36:42 02:58:30 10
5 4 Cameron Brown NZL 08:18:30 08:28:38 00:49:23 04:41:18 02:53:36 12
6 6 David Dellow AUS 08:20:12 08:30:22 00:47:23 04:41:51 02:57:44 15
7 45 Michael Weiss AUT 08:20:16 08:30:26 00:54:52 04:30:19 02:58:48 (16)
8 3 Luke McKenzie AUS 08:28:47 08:39:08 00:47:21 04:37:35 03:09:48 42
9 21 Mike Aigroz SUI 08:30:49 08:41:12 00:48:49 04:42:14 03:05:12 47
10 10 Christian Kramer GER 08:32:48 08:43:13 00:47:45 04:45:22 03:02:52 52
11 23 Paul Amey GBR 08:35:31 08:46:00 00:50:21 04:49:19 03:01:49 59
12 32 Mathias Hecht SUI 08:36:46 08:47:16 00:48:08 04:45:25 03:08:17 (65)
13 8 Jimmy Johnsen DEN 08:36:47 08:47:17 00:50:19 04:52:30 02:58:49 66
14 9 Daniel Halksworth GBR 08:39:19 08:49:52 00:47:30 04:47:25 03:07:48 77
15 22 Paul Ambrose GBR 08:40:22 08:50:57 00:48:33 04:41:53 03:16:16 81
16 44 Swen Sundberg GER 08:41:31 08:52:07 00:52:19 04:45:20 03:10:18 87
17 30 Philip Graves GBR 08:42:16 08:52:53 00:47:33 04:42:48 03:17:06 93
18 31 Jarmo Hast FIN 08:42:55 08:53:33 00:50:27 04:56:03 03:00:49 97
19 7 Axel Zeebroek BEL 08:44:24 08:55:04 00:47:24 04:45:56 03:15:10 102
20 33 Todd Israel AUS 08:45:27 08:56:08 00:49:55 04:53:32 03:08:52 106
21 39 Joshua Rix AUS 08:49:09 08:59:54 00:49:43 04:45:18 03:21:16 123
22 27 Guy Crawford NZL 08:49:42 09:00:28 00:48:47 04:45:04 03:24:56 130
23 42 Sylvain Rota FRA 08:52:18 09:03:07 00:51:37 04:43:16 03:20:12 (142)
24 34 Christian Kemp AUS 08:53:04 09:03:54 00:48:02 04:52:45 03:05:59 (145)
25 46 Luke Whitmore AUS 08:56:02 09:06:56 00:53:48 05:04:30 03:03:22 155
26 28 Balazs Csoke HUN 08:57:16 09:08:11 00:48:35 04:54:43 03:20:25 160
27 38 David Naesvik SWE 09:00:55 09:11:55 00:55:15 04:50:18 03:19:27 174
28 48 Paul Wisniewski POL 09:07:34 09:18:42 00:49:45 04:45:00 03:40:54 (195)
29 29 Adam Gordon NZL 09:07:59 09:19:07 00:52:32 04:56:07 03:11:50 (195)
30 26 Matt Burgess NZL 09:08:32 09:19:41 00:49:56 04:49:27 03:24:39 (196)
31 43 Benjamin Sanson FRA 09:13:46 09:25:01 00:47:01 06:12:23 03:41:03 (211)
32 47 Harry Wiltshire GBR 09:27:42 09:39:14 00:47:34 04:51:08 03:54:34 262
33 25 Dan Brown PHI 09:40:20 09:52:08 unrated unrated unrated (311)
34 35 Arland Macasieb PHI 10:01:22 10:13:36 01:02:41 05:30:18 03:39:06 369
37 Casey Munro AUS n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
41 Tom Rodgers AUS n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
40 Peter Robertson AUS n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
24 Courtney Atkinson AUS n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)

Female Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating Rank
1 11 Caroline Steffen SUI 09:01:28 09:12:28 00:51:46 04:59:39 03:14:44 176
2 12 Mary Beth Ellis USA 09:11:36 09:22:49 00:51:41 05:10:42 03:14:49 202
3 14 Natascha Badmann SUI 09:16:51 09:28:10 01:00:58 05:03:44 03:15:17 224
4 13 Rebekah Keat AUS 09:20:03 09:31:26 00:53:27 05:15:35 03:17:14 235
5 20 Kim Schwabenbauer USA 09:29:17 09:40:51 01:02:21 05:17:23 03:16:51 268
6 18 Mareen Hufe GER 09:29:52 09:41:27 01:00:37 05:08:20 03:26:40 273
7 15 Asa Lundstroem SWE 09:32:39 09:44:18 01:00:00 05:15:36 03:20:48 280
8 16 Rebecca Hoschke AUS 09:39:41 09:51:28 01:01:17 05:19:25 03:21:42 307
9 17 Stephanie Jones USA 09:41:50 09:53:40 01:05:44 05:19:59 03:20:42 316
10 49 Kate Bevilaqua AUS 09:45:21 09:57:15 00:56:08 05:21:33 03:33:58 327
11 19 Angela Naeth CAN 09:49:04 10:01:03 00:57:57 05:10:53 03:26:23 (344)
12 55 Keiko Tanaka JPN 09:53:18 10:05:22 00:54:38 05:30:13 03:27:09 (353)
13 51 Michelle Duffield AUS 10:02:07 10:14:21 01:00:00 05:33:00 03:27:55 (373)
14 53 Tine Holst DEN 10:02:19 10:14:34 01:07:21 05:20:18 03:37:26 374
15 52 Kristy Hallett AUS 10:38:32 10:51:31 01:01:45 05:35:06 03:52:43 (411)
54 Kym Jaenke AUS n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
50 Tracy Douglas AUS n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

There is a very interesting mix of athletes on the start list, all of them with some issue. Paul Matthews has the best rating, but his two results are from 2012 and he hasn’t finished an IM since then. Crowie is probably the biggest name, but he has already said goodbye to IM racing after Kona. Marino Vanhoenacker and Dirk Bockel ended their 2013 seasons with frustrating DNFs in Cozumel and Kona. Cameron Brown has just raced New Zealand.

  • Craig Alexander: 36% (2-1)
  • Marino Vanhoenacker: 19% (4-1)
  • Dirk Bockel: 14% (6-1)
  • Cameron Brown: 10% (9-1)
  • David Dellow: 6% (16-1)
  • Paul Matthews: 5% (17-1)
  • Luke McKenzie: 5% (20-1)

Female Race Participants

  • Caroline Steffen: 61% (1-1)
  • Mary Beth Ellis: 24% (3-1)
  • Rebekah Keat: 8% (12-1)
  • Natascha Badmann: 4% (22-1)

Who do you think is going to win?

At IM-Predicitions.com you can submit your own picks for IM Melbourne, and maybe even win a nice prize!

Interested in more information?

My friend Luke Dragstra and I also have a new podcast called IM-Predictions discussing the pro field in Ironman-distance races. The first episode is focused on IM Melbourne and has just been released!

Abu Dhabi Long Distance 2014 (March 15th) – Startlist

Abu Dhabi is one of the better known long triathlons that don’t use the “standard” Ironman distance of 3.8k/2.4mi swim, 180k/112mi bike and a marathon (42.2k or 26.2 mi). I want to post a bit more on non-IM long distance races, but I will just post the start list and my Ironman-distance based ranking and ratings. However, with the different lengths I won’t include the results in athlete’s or course’s ratings, I can’t calculate odds and I also won’t be able to predict finishing times. (So instead of „predictions“ I’ll call these posts just „start lists“.)

The Abu Dhabi Long Distance race is held over distances of 3k swim, 200k bike and 20k run – basically the swim is almost the same as an Ironman, the bike a bit longer, and the run significantly shorter. This allows for a much shorter recovery than an IM, and as it’s pretty early in the Northern Hemisphere season, it can be used as a great early race or fitness test. It also offers good prize money: 40.000 US$ for each of the winners and 125k total purse. In addition, the organizers probably help with travel costs and accommodation, and as a consequence the race usually attracts a very good field.

Previous Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Frederik Van Lierde BEL  00:35:21  04:48:13  01:12:47 06:41:02
2 Eneko Llanos ESP  00:35:27  04:48:21  01:16:14 06:45:02
3 Tyler Butterfield BMU  00:36:58  04:48:16  01:17:47 06:47:49

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Melissa Hauschildt AUS  00:41:17  05:17:45  01:16:42 07:20:29
2 Caroline Steffen SUI  00:38:20  05:19:07  01:21:00 07:23:53
3 Michelle Vesterby DEN  00:38:19  05:21:06  01:22:27 07:27:52

Male Race Participants

Rank Name Nation Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating Rank
1 Eneko Llanos ESP 08:21:43 00:47:42 04:36:52 02:52:01 1
2 Frederik Van Lierde BEL 08:24:36 00:47:46 04:35:41 02:55:42 5
3 Tyler Butterfield BMU 08:32:54 00:49:37 04:43:29 02:56:37 18
4 James Cunnama ZAF 08:34:01 00:50:03 04:42:00 02:58:07 23
5 Bas Diederen NED 08:37:49 00:47:55 04:47:59 02:55:31 35
6 Bert Jammaer BEL 08:46:26 00:49:09 04:46:10 03:05:32 60
7 Per Bittner GER 08:51:07 00:49:58 04:52:41 03:02:03 84
8 Bart Colpaert BEL 08:51:28 00:46:55 04:46:42 03:05:39 (85)
9 Henrik Hyldelund DEN 09:09:49 00:47:32 04:47:42 03:19:20 (165)
10 Edo Van der Meer NED 09:18:39 00:47:33 04:48:48 03:36:21 (194)
11 Andi Fuchs AUT 09:19:40 00:57:16 04:50:54 03:13:09 (196)
  Sylvain Sudrie FRA unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)

Female Race Participants

Rank Name Nation Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating Rank
1 Caroline Steffen SUI 09:12:28 00:51:46 04:59:39 03:14:44 2
2 Yvonne Van Vlerken NED 09:14:27 00:57:43 05:01:34 03:08:46 4
3 Jodie Swallow GBR 09:25:03 00:48:41 05:02:52 03:27:21 9
4 Michelle Vesterby DEN 09:27:58 00:52:05 05:09:20 03:21:19 13
5 Svetlana Blazevic SCG 10:14:15 00:52:20 05:31:28 03:43:04 105
6 Gurutze Frades Larralde ESP 10:14:43 01:02:57 05:28:28 03:24:24 (109)
7 Maria Lemeseva RUS 10:26:18 01:06:57 05:33:04 03:31:49 (128)
  Alena Stevens SVK unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
  Melissa Hauschildt AUS unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)

01:12:47

Ironman New Zealand 2014 – Analyzing Results

Race Conditions

Conditions in New Zealand were pretty typical – the adjustment of 4:56 was very close to the course rating of 4:59. If anything, the bike was a little bit slower and the run a little bit faster.

Male Race Results

Before the race, almost all prediction had a New Zealand victory. However, it was Marko Albert who took the win.

Marko_NZ

Marko was leading after the swim, and then pulled away from the big lead group, posting the fastest bike by four minutes. Marko had a six minute lead after the bike and posted the second fastest marathon to win his first Ironman. Cameron Brown posted the fastest run, managed to eat a bit into Marko’s lead and pull away from all the other contenders. The podium was rounded out by Terenzo Bozzone, who had a solid Ironman day.

Bevan Docherty had another frustrating DNF with stomach problems, it’ll be interesting to see how he and Romain Guillaume are going to adjust their Kona qualifying plans.

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to expected
1 Marko Albert EST 00:46:10 04:36:42 02:50:05 08:17:33 -18:15
2 Cameron Brown NZL 00:48:25 04:40:39 02:47:45 08:21:55 -02:29
3 Terenzo Bozzone NZL 00:46:16 04:43:12 02:54:55 08:28:56 -01:44
4 Tim Van Berkel AUS 00:48:00 04:41:28 02:55:44 08:29:53 -05:37
5 Tom Lowe GBR 00:54:52 04:41:08 02:50:20 08:31:56 02:20
6 Daniel Halksworth GBR 00:46:17 04:43:33 03:06:29 08:41:49 -03:55
7 Guy Crawford NZL 00:47:57 04:41:34 03:09:43 08:44:03 -16:30
8 Philip Graves GBR 00:46:20 04:42:36 03:18:26 08:52:34 07:54
9 Petr Vabrousek CZE 00:54:50 04:59:13 03:01:06 09:01:20 09:26
10 Simon Cochrane NZL 00:51:50 05:04:03 03:03:42 09:05:15 -05:20
11 Johan Borg AUS 00:54:37 05:01:11 03:04:50 09:06:25 -13:10
12 Daiki Masuda JPN 00:54:38 05:01:39 03:08:58 09:10:32 -33:40
13 Shanon Stallard NZL 00:54:45 05:05:40 03:05:16 09:11:51 -27:01
14 Brodie Madgwick NZL 00:51:53 05:04:05 03:15:15 09:17:15 n/a
15 Jon Woods NZL 00:54:47 05:06:18 03:21:07 09:27:39 -20:04
16 Chris Sanson NZL 00:54:46 05:19:14 03:18:02 09:40:04 25:13
17 Harry Wiltshire GBR 00:46:16 04:43:30 04:12:12 09:46:34 18:30
18 Damien Decas FRA 00:50:04 05:10:02 03:56:04 10:03:24 n/a
19 Romain Guillaume FRA 00:46:27 04:42:29 DNF
20 Bryan Rhodes NZL 00:47:50 DNF
21 Balazs Csoke HUN 00:46:22 DNF
22 Bevan Docherty NZL 00:46:16 04:43:19 DNF

Female Race Results

Meredith Kessler was the defending champion, and she also won the 2014 title in impressive, course-record setting fashion.

Meredit_NZ

MBK almost posted a new swim record (unaided by male swimmers, the women started a minute after the men) and then had the fastest bike leg even with two minutes lost to some mechanical problems. Meredith also had the fastest marathon – interestingly in exactly the same time as second place Gina Crawford. Gina pretty much sealed her Kona spot, and if she manages to progress as she did in the few weeks after Challenge Wanaka, watch out for her in Kona! Third place went to Wanaka winner Candice Hammond.

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to expected
1 Meredith Kessler USA 00:46:47 05:08:30 03:08:06 09:08:46 -13:55
2 Gina Crawford NZL 00:51:20 05:10:05 03:08:06 09:15:53 -05:33
3 Candice Hammond NZL 00:59:25 05:15:01 03:10:44 09:30:04 -03:22
4 Bree Wee USA 00:53:46 05:23:46 03:14:34 09:39:15 -05:18
5 Michelle Bremer NZL 00:59:12 05:21:58 03:18:27 09:45:34 06:42
6 Kate Bevilaqua AUS 00:54:10 05:23:53 03:23:27 09:47:18 -11:17
7 Larisa Marsh NZL 00:59:16 05:22:23 03:22:55 09:49:49 n/a
8 Melanie Burke NZL 01:06:43 05:25:45 03:13:29 09:51:41 -05:58
9 Mareen Hufe GER 00:59:28 05:16:51 03:32:32 09:55:30 22:44
10 Keiko Tanaka JAP 00:53:51 05:32:58 03:27:07 09:59:45 01:02
11 Erin Furness NZL 00:59:25 05:33:18 03:24:38 10:02:51 -07:58
12 Celia Kuch GER 01:03:39 05:32:38 03:36:59 10:19:40 11:41
13 Meghan Newcomer USA 00:56:32 05:43:32 03:37:16 10:22:36 02:22
14 Jodie Scott AUS 00:57:23 DNF
15 Emi Sakai JPN 01:09:18 05:45:15 DNF
16 Julia Grant NZL 00:57:26 05:50:37 DNF
17 Megumi Shigaki JPN 00:59:23 05:44:46 DNF
18 Janine Sax NZL 00:59:23 DNF
19 Anna Cleaver NZL 00:46:57 05:39:27 DNF

Photo Credit: Delly Carry (via Ironman.com)

“2014 KPR Observer” – Newsletter with up-to-date KPR information

DraftTitle LowRes

The Kona Pro Ranking (or KPR for short) is the system used to determine which Professional triathletes qualify for the Ironman World Championships in Kona. Once you have a closer look, it is not too hard to understand how the system works. However, the rankings change almost on a weekly basis, it takes a lot of work to keep up, and it’s not clear what the results will mean for the number of points required to qualify.

To make the KPR easier to follow and understand, I’m setting up the „2014 KPR Observer“ as a paid service. It consists of an Initial Information Package with a description of how the KPR works, my base predictions for the men’s and women’s cutoff, and graphs and descriptions of the KPR standings after the first 2014 races. You’ll receive the Initial Information Package at the time of purchase. As the season progresses, there will be EMail updates about who is already in, who is close to qualifying, how many slots are still open and updated cutoff estimates.

The KPR Observer is available in three different levels, starting at 24$. More details can be found on the sales page at https://gum.co/2014KPR.

Updated TOP 10 Ratings

I’ve just updated the Top 10 Ratings page (which also contains the top rated athletes in each of the disciplines, and all Ironman-distance results of the athletes). Please note that this is an updated version of the data in my 2013 TriRating Report, since releasing the report I’ve been working a bit more on my rating algorithm.

TOP 10 Rated Male Athletes

Rank Name Nation Rating Last Race # Races
1 Eneko Llanos ESP 08:21:43 IM Hawaii on 2013-10-12 18
2 Timo Bracht GER 08:22:39 IM Hawaii on 2013-10-12 20
3 Craig Alexander AUS 08:22:46 IM Hawaii on 2013-10-12 10
4 Sebastian Kienle GER 08:24:13 IM Hawaii on 2013-10-12 7
5 Frederik Van Lierde BEL 08:24:36 IM Hawaii on 2013-10-12 12
6 Marino Vanhoenacker BEL 08:24:51 IM Germany on 2013-07-07 14
7 Faris Al-Sultan GER 08:25:19 IM Hawaii on 2013-10-12 17
8 Bart Aernouts BEL 08:25:26 IM Hawaii on 2013-10-12 4
9 Andreas Raelert GER 08:26:05 IM Western Australia on 2013-12-08 11
10 Dirk Bockel LUX 08:26:22 IM Hawaii on 2013-10-12 9

Llanos Run

2013 was clearly a transition year at the top of the male athletes. Only one athlete in the top 10 (Kona winner Frederik Van Lierde) has had a great year and managed to improve his rating.

My new #1 rated athlete is Eneko Llanos. He’s managed to win two regional championships (Melbourne and Frankfurt) and also had a decent finish to the season (11th in Kona and 3rd in Cozumel), already securing his Kona slot for 2014. It’ll be interesting to see if he focuses his 2014 season on another (final?) shot at winning Kona.

Timo Bracht in 2nd and Craig Alexander in 3rd are athletes close the end of their career. Timo is a very consistent performer – the last time he was out of the top 10 in Kona was in 2008 when he was DQ’d after reaching the finish in 5th place. Craig has said good-bye to Ironman racing after his disappointing 21st place in Kona.

Sebastian Kienle didn’t have a great start to 2013 but managed to turn things around in time for the big races. He was injured and sick for most of the first half of the year, and considering his preparation had a great race in Frankfurt (9th place in a stacked field). Then he defended his 70.3 title in Las Vegas and finished on the Kona podium.

VanLierde Run

As already mentioned, Frederik Van Lierde is the only top 10 athlete who improved his rating with two great wins in France and Kona. It will be interesting to see how he deals with the added pressure in 2014, but I’m sure with the help of his coach Luc Van Lierde he’ll prepare well.

Marino Vanhoenacker (6th), Andreas Raelert (9th) and Dirk Bockel (10th) have to think hard about their plans for 2014. They’ve struggled with injuries, didn’t score any Kona points, and finished the year with frustrating DNFs (Marino in Cozumel and Andreas in Western Australia) or didn’t recover in time for another IM (Dirk with a slight hip injury). Maybe they should regroup in 2014 before re-focusing on Kona in 2015.

Faris Al-Sultan (7th) seems to always be in the mix in Kona, but then can’t quite hold on to his great position on the run. However, he seems to still enjoy racing, and he’s still good enough to win almost any Ironman race. But with the attractive races in the European summer I just can’t see him focus 100% on Kona and risk a full season for another shot at winning Kona.

Bart Aernouts in 8th place has developed into the top Ironman runner: He’s posted the fastest run times in Kona for two years, and also had a great 2:37 at IM France. He continues to improve year by year, and should be a podium contender in Kona 2014.

Compared to last year, a few athletes have dropped from the Top 10:

  • Chris McCormack (still in 11th place) probably missed his last shot at a good Kona result when he was forced to withdraw from Kona 2013 with Epstein-Barr virus. I’d be surprised to still see him race at a Top-10-level in 2014.
  • David Dellow (now in 15th place) had some bad luck, catching an infection just before Kona. He has recovered and already scored some Kona points by finishing 3rd in Western Australia.
  • Cam Brown is now in 13th place. He was finally beaten by Bevan Docherty in IM New Zealand, then had a disappointing run at Challenge Roth. It’ll be interesting to see how his 2014 season will be, he’s already had some good results in 70.3s.

TOP 10 Rated Female Athletes

Rank Name Nation Rating Last Race # Races
1 Mirinda Carfrae AUS 09:10:46 IM Florida on 2013-11-02 9
2 Caroline Steffen SUI 09:12:28 IM Hawaii on 2013-10-12 15
3 Rachel Joyce GBR 09:12:35 IM Hawaii on 2013-10-12 13
4 Yvonne Van Vlerken NED 09:14:27 IM Florida on 2013-11-02 13
5 Liz Blatchford GBR 09:17:09 IM Hawaii on 2013-10-12 3
6 Mary Beth Ellis USA 09:22:49 IM Hawaii on 2013-10-12 10
7 Julia Gajer GER 09:22:49 IM Arizona on 2013-11-17 5
8 Linsey Corbin USA 09:24:12 IM Hawaii on 2013-10-12 15
9 Jodie Swallow GBR 09:25:03 IM Hawaii on 2013-10-12 3
10 Gina Crawford NZL 09:25:27 IM Hawaii on 2013-10-12 21

Rinny Run

In the women’s ranking, we have a clear #1 athlete: No one can argue that Mirinda Carfrae is currently the best female Pro. She was leading the rankings last year, and she convincingly confirmed the top spot by winning Kona in a fantastic way.

I’m not sure how Caroline Steffen judges her year. She’s posted great results (winning Roth and MetaMan), but couldn’t deliver the Kona performance she was hoping for and had to fight very hard for “only” a 5th place finish. There will be some changes to her 2014 season after leaving Team TBB and Brett Sutton. She has just announced that she’ll be coached by Chris McCormack.

My new #3 is Rachel Joyce. She managed her season very well, with two great results in Texas and Kona, and a slight injury in between. She used her fitness to win in Cozumel, so she already secured her Kona slot for 2014. She’s been making steady progress from year to year, but there is not much more room!

Yvonne Van Vlerken remains in 4th place, but while in 2012 that ranking was mainly based on a great Florida race, she’s had a solid year of good results (and no DNFs) in 2013. In all her long-distance races she was in contention for the win, and – also having secured her Kona slot already – she seems to have a solid base for a great 2014 season. 

With Liz Blatchford (5th), Julia Gajer (7th) and Jodie Swallow (9th) we have three athletes new to long-distance racing. Liz switched over from short-course racing, qualified late for Kona and then snagged the final spot on the podium. Julia had raced very fast in Roth in the past years, in 2013 she also raced two Ironman races, winning her first IM title in Arizona. Jodie seems to have finally overcome her struggles and is healthy enough for long-distance training and racing. After three increasingly better IMs she struggled with racing in the Kona heat.

Mary Beth Ellis (6th) had a pretty good year until she broke her collarbone close to Kona. She couldn’t fully recover, and had to DNF. While she continues to race for Team TBB, she has switched coaches to Siri Lindley – I hope that this will help her find an extra gear in Kona.

Linsey Corbin (8th) was pretty much a “no show” in 2013. She struggled with injuries, but managed to pull off a miraculous 10th place in Kona on a long run of just 9 miles. She scrapped plans of racing another Ironman in 2013, so it looks as if she wants to take the time to properly heal this time, and then come back strong for 2014.

Gina Crawford (10th) has had 6 Ironman-distance finishes in 2013 and continues to post one solid result after another. She has signed with Matt Dixon of Purplepatch in her quest for a top Kona result.

Athletes that have dropped out of the top 10:

  • Last year’s Kona winner Leanda Cave (now in 11th) was dealing with injuries all year. She finally pulled the pin on a frustrating season, but it remains to be seen if she still has the fire in her to come back in 2014. As a former Kona winner, she just has to validate her Kona slot by completing an Ironman race, and this means she can be a bit more relaxed in planning her season.
  • Sonja Tajsich (unrated after a string of injury-related DNFs)
  • Amy Marsh (now #22 after two races where she struggled on the run)
  • Rebekah Keat (now #18 after a Kona DNF – she was racing very well in 70.3s towards the end of 2013, but doesn’t seem interested to race IMs right now)
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