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IM Cozumel 2012 – Predictions

This weekend’s IM Cozumel continues the recent trend of large and strong fields for the post-Kona races. As usual, it was tricky to build a list of participants: I was working off the official list (regardless of how current it is) and added some athletes that have said they will start in Cozumel. On the men’s side we have top-rated athletes such as Dirk Bockel and Timo Bracht, and some future hopefuls such as James Cunnama, while the women’s side features Kona racers Amy Marsh and Michelle Vesterby looking for their next Ironman win. Last week there were a few late withdrawals for Arizona, it remains to be seen if this happens again for Cozumel.

Update: Amy Marsh will not be racing, she withdrew after Kona.

Update 2: I’ve received tweets about some more top racers starting in Cozumel:

  • Mary Beth Ellis (thanks to James Cunnama and Michelle Vesterby and Mary Beth for confirming she’ll start)
  • Sonja Tajsich (again, thanks to Michelle Vesterby)
  • Ivan Rana (thanks to Pablo Fuente)

I’ve added to the list of athletes (with their ratings) and also updated the odds.

Update 3: Ronnie Schildknecht announced on his blog that he won’t start.

Update 4: Yvonne van Vlerken will also start – what can she do only three weeks after winning IM Florida? (Thanks to Michelle Vesterby for pointing out that she was missing in all the published lists, but had committed to racing long ago.)

Previous Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Michael Lovato USA 00:48:47 04:19:17 03:01:41 08:23:52
2 Patrick Evoe USA 00:53:02 04:24:09 02:59:23 08:30:36
3 Alejandro Santamaria ESP 00:54:12 04:32:57 02:52:00 08:32:50

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Simone Braendli SWI 00:48:57 04:45:20 03:25:10 09:14:08
2 Sonja Tajsich GER 01:02:32 05:13:08 03:02:54 09:23:15
3 Sophie De Groote BEL 00:54:46 04:57:45 03:18:25 09:26:07

Course Records

Leg Gender Record Athlete Date
Total overall 08:15:57 Andy Potts 2010-11-28
Swim overall 00:44:39 Uzziel Valderrabano 2009-11-29
Bike overall 04:19:17 Michael Lovato 2011-11-27
Run overall 02:52:00 Alejandro Santamaria 2011-11-27
Total female 09:07:08 Yvonne Van Vlerken 2010-11-28
Swim female 00:46:39 Bree Wee 2009-11-29
Bike female 04:45:20 Simone Braendli 2011-11-27
Run female 03:02:54 Sonja Tajsich 2011-11-27

Course Rating

Course Rating for IM Cozumel is 09:40.

Race Adjustments for IM Cozumel

Year Adjustment # of Athletes Rating
2009 12:23 27 12:23
2010 10:01 34 11:12
2011 06:36 41 09:40

KPR points and Price Money

IM Cozumel has 2000 KPR points for the winner. It has a total price purse of 75k$.

Male Race Participants

Rank Name Nation Expected Time Rating Rank
1 Timo Bracht GER 08:12:21 08:21:20 6
2 Dirk Bockel LUX 08:13:57 08:22:57 7
3 Ronnie Schildknecht SWI 08:20:27 08:29:35 16
4 James Cunnama ZAF 08:28:09 08:37:25 36
5 Eduardo Sturla ARG 08:33:34 08:42:56 52
6 Luke McKenzie AUS 08:34:32 08:43:55 58
7 Igor Amorelli BRA 08:35:02 08:44:25 60
8 Jimmy Johnsen DNK 08:35:25 08:44:49 63
9 Uwe Widmann GER 08:35:55 08:45:19 68
10 Patrick Evoe USA 08:41:14 08:50:44 97
11 Bert Jammaer BEL 08:41:50 08:51:21 101
12 Anton Blokhin UKR 08:42:59 08:52:31 106
13 Sylvain Rota FRA 08:43:26 08:52:59 108
14 Stefan Schmid GER 08:46:44 08:56:20 129
15 Brandon Marsh USA 08:49:42 08:59:22 145
16 Alexander Grigoryev RUS 08:52:59 09:02:42 168
17 Luke Dragstra CAN 08:57:37 09:07:25 195
18 Scott Defilippis USA 08:58:37 09:08:26 209
19 Zach Ruble USA 08:58:40 09:08:29 210
20 Andres Castillo Latorre COL 08:59:41 09:09:31 222
21 Horst Reichel GER 08:59:50 09:09:41 226
22 Nikolaus Wihlidal AUT 09:09:22 09:19:23 287
23 Allan Villanueva 09:10:14 09:20:16 295
24 Hiroyuki Nishiuchi JPN 09:17:50 09:28:00 354
25 Rene Vallant AUT 09:18:37 09:28:48 358
26 Jesse Vondracek USA 09:22:07 09:32:22 383
27 Teemu Kyllonen GBR 09:24:21 09:34:38 401
28 Blake Becker USA 09:33:51 09:44:19 465
29 Logan Franks USA 09:37:50 09:48:22 490
30 Ivan Tejero Vazquez ESP 09:51:38 10:02:25 580
31 Bojan Maric SCG 10:02:22 10:13:21 639
32 Olivier Cardoen BEL n/a unrated n/a
33 Patrick Donovan USA n/a unrated n/a

Also starting:

  • Ivan Rana (ESP) – unrated, but has just won the 70.3 in Lanzarote

Female Race Participants

Rank Name Nation Expected Time Rating Rank
1 Amy Marsh USA 09:15:41 09:25:49 14
2 Elizabeth Lyles USA 09:19:12 09:29:24 19
3 Michelle Vesterby DNK 09:22:00 09:32:15 25
4 Sophie De Groote BEL 09:22:46 09:33:02 27
5 Kathleen Calkins USA 09:25:33 09:35:52 34
6 Carrie Lester AUS 09:25:42 09:36:01 35
7 Jessie Donavan USA 09:33:35 09:44:03 53
8 Beth Walsh USA 09:35:58 09:46:28 58
9 Michaela Rudolf AUT 09:41:02 09:51:38 75
10 Sara Gross CAN 09:44:02 09:54:41 83
11 Jackie Arendt USA 09:47:01 09:57:43 92
12 Heidi Sessner GER 09:51:06 10:01:53 106
13 Eimear Mullan IRL 09:53:29 10:04:18 116
14 Paolina Allan CAN 09:55:06 10:05:57 122
15 Barbara Tesar AUT 09:56:50 10:07:43 129
16 Stephanie Jones USA 09:58:00 10:08:54 136
17 Francesca Tibaldi ITA 09:58:06 10:09:00 137
18 Jacqui Gordon USA 09:59:19 10:10:15 140
19 Anne Basso FRA 10:10:33 10:21:41 175
20 Stephanie Ossenbrink CAN 10:12:04 10:23:14 181
21 Maki Nishiuchi JPN 10:13:12 10:24:23 182
22 Annett Kamenz GER 10:14:35 10:25:47 184
23 April Lea Gellatly USA 10:16:18 10:27:32 191
24 Fernanda Keller BRA 10:23:11 10:34:33 203
25 Leslie Lamacchia USA 10:27:11 10:38:37 213
26 Kristin Baker CAN 10:36:15 10:47:51 232
27 Amanda McKenzie AUS 11:00:59 11:13:02 261
28 Saki Kubota JAP 11:13:19 11:25:36 268
29 Amanda Felder Derkacs USA n/a unrated n/a
30 Tenille Hoogland CAN n/a unrated n/a
31 Ayesha Rollinson CAN n/a unrated n/a

Also starting:

  • Mary Beth Ellis (USA), rated 9:14:45
  • Sonja Tajsich (GER), rated 9:22:16
  • Yvonne Van Vlerken (AUT), rated 9:17:11

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

  • Timo Bracht: 40% (1-1)
  • James Cunnama: 34% (2-1)
  • Dirk Bockel: 20% (4-1)
  • Luke McKenzie: 2% (48-1)

Female Race Participants

  • Mary Beth Ellis: 42% (1-1)
  • Yvonne Van Vlerken: 33% (2-1)
  • Sonja Tajsich: 19% (4-1)
  • Carrie Lester: 2% (50-1)
  • Elizabeth Lyles: 2% (52-1)

Ironman Arizona 2012 – Analyzing Results

The conditions in Arizona were close to what we’ve seen in the past: A race adjustment of 10:40 is very close to the new course rating of 8:47.

Male Race Results

The surprise of the day was German Nils Frommhold, winning his first IM in impressive fashion. He was leading after the swim, stayed close to the front on the bike (where Andy Starykowicz posted another bike course record), and then finished with the race-best run. Paul Matthews (in his second IM) had a great run as well, but couldn’t close the gap. TJ Tollakson lead the run for some time, but his 2:56 marathon was not enough to take the win.

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Actual Time Expected Time
1 Nils Frommhold GER 00:48:19 04:22:45 02:48:06 08:03:13 n/a
2 Paul Matthews AUS 00:48:27 04:24:31 02:48:27 08:04:58 08:05:20
3 TJ Tollakson USA 00:48:34 04:19:03 02:56:01 08:07:36 08:34:20
4 Tyler Butterfield BMU 00:52:28 04:26:02 02:52:02 08:14:41 09:24:31
5 Jarmo Hast FIN 00:51:36 04:32:03 02:48:36 08:16:09 09:00:04
6 Ian Mikelson USA 00:48:41 04:24:07 03:02:32 08:19:38 08:57:34
7 Andrew Starykowicz USA 00:48:42 04:16:31 03:10:50 08:20:36 08:13:58
8 Matthew Russell USA 01:05:41 04:25:46 02:54:18 08:30:50 08:50:09
9 Christian Ritter GER 00:48:31 04:34:40 03:07:54 08:35:08 08:38:43
10 Thomas Gerlach USA 00:54:29 04:28:54 03:08:49 08:36:05 09:14:44
11 Justin Daerr USA 00:54:25 04:35:09 03:01:51 08:37:41 08:38:47
12 Marek Jaskolka GER 00:48:33 04:50:03 02:55:13 08:38:26 n/a
13 Jan Van Berkel SUI 00:48:30 04:24:31 03:23:45 08:40:23 08:27:43
14 Mathias Hecht SWI 00:48:34 04:41:08 03:05:46 08:41:15 08:28:35
15 Kevin Taddonio USA 01:03:28 04:28:51 03:03:55 08:41:34 08:51:00
16 Nicolas Hemet FIN 00:57:16 04:33:42 03:06:45 08:41:58 n/a
17 Gabriele Mazzetta ITA 00:52:19 04:37:29 03:07:41 08:42:40 08:58:31
18 Adam O’Meara CAN 00:52:47 04:43:15 03:02:03 08:43:20 09:19:47
19 Kevin Everett USA 00:48:26 04:24:19 03:28:38 08:45:17 09:15:31
20 Jozsef Major HUN 00:56:04 04:26:44 03:18:26 08:46:25 08:35:08
21 Paul Amey GBR 00:48:47 04:23:48 03:33:10 08:49:54 08:26:03
22 Daniel Mueller GER 00:48:37 04:45:15 03:17:27 08:55:35 09:23:18
23 Derek Garcia USA 00:55:39 04:35:02 03:21:39 08:56:06 n/a
24 Michael Wetzel GER 00:57:10 04:52:00 03:07:16 09:00:52 08:57:11
25 Timothy Beardall AUS 01:03:19 04:26:04 03:33:10 09:06:59 09:59:18
26 Adam Bohach USA 00:57:10 04:53:50 03:12:52 09:08:36 n/a
27 Chris Glibert USA 01:04:08 05:03:01 03:09:11 09:20:32 n/a
28 Dan Brown PHI 01:06:04 00:00:00 09:40:56 09:40:56 08:50:44
29 Arland Macasieb PHL 01:05:27 05:02:06 03:34:07 09:48:25 09:59:49
30 Manuel Wyss SWI 00:55:53 05:02:19 03:51:14 09:54:23 09:21:29
31 Jeff Paul USA 01:03:41 04:59:42 04:05:41 10:16:42 09:27:58
32 Monte Still USA 00:55:47 05:24:39 03:51:52 10:23:19 n/a
33 Matjaz Kovac SVN 01:02:58 05:30:54 03:43:17 10:23:48 09:40:43
34 Richard Wygand BRA 01:05:55 05:14:30 04:14:56 10:42:00 10:35:54
35 Ryan Kelly USA 01:02:53 05:12:55 04:23:53 10:44:16 10:24:51
36 Jason Watson USA 00:59:45 05:03:37 04:41:20 10:50:15 n/a
37 Stephan Vuckovic GER 00:52:41 04:43:44 07:44:49 13:26:08 08:31:38

Female Race Results

On the female side, Linsey Corbin finally managed to win the race after three second places in a row. She had to run down Meredith Kessler who followed up her 4th place in Florida with a second place in Arizona only two weeks later. Leanda Cave was true to her word, was never in contention and just validated her Kona slot by finishing in 6th place.

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Actual Time Expected Time
1 Linsey Corbin USA 00:59:11 04:51:34 03:05:54 09:01:41 09:14:28
2 Meredith Kessler USA 00:50:17 04:53:41 03:18:12 09:06:41 09:20:25
3 Corinne Abraham GBR 01:04:59 04:54:05 03:11:44 09:15:10 09:24:27
4 Sara Gross CAN 00:59:42 05:06:23 03:07:06 09:18:04 09:42:56
5 Mirjam Weerd NLD 00:55:16 04:57:14 03:26:13 09:24:27 09:31:33
6 Leanda Cave GBR 00:54:54 05:04:11 03:20:53 09:24:51 09:13:34
7 Haley Chura USA 00:50:16 05:00:02 03:33:20 09:28:22 n/a
8 Malaika Homo USA 00:55:18 05:03:43 03:25:18 09:28:40 10:01:22
9 Charisa Wernick USA 01:01:32 05:05:44 03:18:24 09:30:27 09:46:42
10 Kim Schwabenbauer USA 01:06:53 05:00:52 03:18:05 09:30:54 n/a
11 Amber Ferreira USA 00:56:53 05:07:50 03:24:54 09:34:51 10:23:12
12 Nina Pekerman ISR 01:02:13 05:12:54 03:22:37 09:43:50 09:58:55
13 Kristin Lie NOR 01:17:08 04:58:42 03:26:25 09:47:27 09:53:18
14 Jessica Smith USA 00:55:09 05:10:43 03:39:28 09:50:12 09:37:59
15 Beth Shutt USA 01:03:27 05:04:02 03:41:44 09:54:01 10:11:04
16 Trish Deim USA 01:05:59 05:00:56 03:45:13 09:57:05 10:18:37
17 Cindy Lewis CAN 01:07:21 05:15:03 03:28:49 09:57:08 10:14:47
18 Jackie Pearce CAN 01:06:53 05:16:28 03:30:58 10:00:10 10:18:12
19 Kelly Fillnow USA 01:11:24 05:15:18 03:28:28 10:00:25 10:08:08
20 Erin Young USA 00:59:30 05:22:57 03:33:51 10:02:37 10:40:24
21 Leslie Lamacchia USA 01:12:45 05:14:47 03:52:39 10:26:24 10:26:00
22 Uli Bromme USA 01:09:56 05:09:22 04:03:58 10:28:42 09:46:22
23 Kathrin Mannweiler GER 01:05:11 05:14:58 04:11:21 10:36:16 11:01:18

Updated TOP10 Ratings and Course Ratings

After the Kona and Florida races (and some minor adjustments in my methodology), I’ve updated the TOP10 Ratings and Course Ratings pages. I will probably post a longer analysis in my planned end-of-year rating report, but here are some highlights:

  • Andreas Raelert is back in the #1 spot. (He slipped to #2 after Crowie’s great race in Melbourne and his sub-par race in Frankfurt, but the Kona results moved him back to the top.)
  • On the women’s side, Chrissie got dropped from the rankings (no race for more than a year). My new #1 is Rinnie, even if she is only slightly ahead of Mary Beth Ellis and Caroline Steffen.
  • On the course ratings side, I still have to do some catching up for the summer races, but IM Sweden is currently the fastest course (although with just one race so far we may see some changes next year).

Any suggestions and observations are welcome!

SwimRatings – How did I calculate them?

My latest blog post on the development of Heather Wurtele’s swim times has generated some interest. Rather than explaining how I calculated the Swim Ratings in comments or private emails, I’ve decided to write a longer, technical blog post explaining the algorithm I’m using. Here are the steps to process new results:

  1. Calculate the race adjustment
  2. Adjust the individual times
  3. Calculate the new rating

Each of these steps is explained in more detail in the following sections. As an example, I’m using Heather’s results from IM Lake Placid 2011 in order not to overwhelm you with lots and lots of results. (Lake Placid had 24 Pros, her later races had way more.) The description also applies to my calculations for any of the legs in a triathlon or the total time, but as the question was specific to swim results, I’ll use the swim times as an example.

Calculate the race adjustment

The goal of the race adjustment is to figure out if the race was slow or fast, taking things into account like how accurate the course was measured or how conducive the conditions on race day were for fast times. In order to calculate this number, let’s have a look at the actual results (Pros, both men and women) first:

Swim

The next step is adding in the existing swim rating. (Some athletes haven’t got a swim rating yet, these can’t be used for the adjustment calculation.) Then I can calculate the difference between the rating and the actual swim time and calculate the difference in percent of the rating. Here’s the data after resorting the table based on the percentage:

SwimDiffs

Only two athletes were able to beat their swim rating (compared to 16 that took longer), so you can already see that the swim was “slow”. There are a few statistical tricks to come up with a “fair” overall adjustment, such as using the average (-4,23%) or the median (-4,33%). What I’ve found works best is to use a percentage of athletes closest to the median. This way larger variations than what we have in this data set (aka. “explosions” on the run) do not play such a big role. Here I end up with a swim adjustment of -4,51%. 

Adjust the individual times

Once we have calculated the race adjustment, we can apply this adjustment to the individual times:

Adjusted

Basically we have removed all course and condition factors from the time and have arrived at a “neutral” swim time that is comparable between races held on different courses and in different years.

Calculate the new rating

Now that we have calculated an adjusted swim time for each athlete’s results, we can pull all of these individual results into a swim rating. To continue with the example, here are Heather’s swim results and adjusted swim times up to Lake Placid 2011:

HeatherSwims

(We can also see that the results Heather based her original assessment on – St. George 2010 – was by far her best swim result.)

The simplest solution is to just take the average of all the results. But then an old result has the same influence as a new result – which doesn’t help much in assessing the current capabilities of a developing athlete or an athlete way past his prime. Therefore, I’m assigning each result a weight based on how old the result is – the older the result, the lower the weight is. I’ve found a value of 0.75 per year works well at reflecting current capabilities without making the ratings change too much. For Heather’s results, the difference between an average and my method is small (54:21 vs. 54:22) but there are examples where the difference is meaningful.

Summary

I hope that I was able to explain in detail how I came up with the swim numbers that form the basis of my blog post comparing the different swim results. The calculation itself is pretty complicated and takes a lot of factors and situations into account. This has the disadvantage of making it almost impossible to calculate the numbers by hand, but so far I have not seen a better system. I accept that these numbers might not be “true” and cannot reflect the assessment of an athlete by a trainer who sees the athlete much more often than the few times per year an athlete can race in an Ironman. But a race is where “the rubber meets the road” and where an athlete has to show what all the hard training has been worth. The numbers just indicate whether there was an improvement or not and cannot judge the reasons behind it. Also, I can’t assess the future improvements of an athlete or the quality of a training program. I certainly wish Heather some improvements in her swim time (and overall results), and I’m sure she is busy planning with Paulo on how to improve.

IM Arizona 2012 – Predictions (Main Post)

If you are looking for additional information on the participants, you can find a full list of their pro results in the detail post.

Previous Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Eneko Llanos ESP 00:48:47 04:20:54 02:46:09 07:59:38
2 Paul Amey GBR 00:48:47 04:22:37 02:45:55 08:01:29
3 Victor Zyemtsev USA 00:52:17 04:35:02 02:43:30 08:14:36

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Leanda Cave GBR 00:52:08 04:51:06 02:58:51 08:49:00
2 Linsey Corbin USA 00:57:00 04:50:11 03:02:27 08:54:33
3 Meredith Kessler USA 00:51:46 04:53:36 03:10:18 09:00:14

Course Records

Leg Gender Record Athlete Date
Total overall 07:59:38 Eneko Llanos 2011-11-19
Swim overall 00:46:02 Kieran Doe 2008-11-23
Bike overall 04:20:54 Eneko Llanos 2011-11-19
Run overall 02:43:30 Victor Zyemtsev 2011-11-19
Total female 08:36:13 Chrissie Wellington 2010-11-21
Swim female 00:48:13 Leanda Cave 2008-11-23
Bike female 04:47:06 Chrissie Wellington 2010-11-21
Run female 02:52:56 Chrissie Wellington 2010-11-21

Course Rating

Course Rating for IM Arizona is 08:10.

Race Adjustments for IM Arizona

Year Adjustment Swim Adj. # of Athletes Rating Swim Rating
2005 n/a n/a 0 n/a n/a
2006 04:19 -00:55 29 04:19 -00:55
2007 05:26 -01:11 27 04:52 -01:03
2008 05:01 -01:04 38 04:55 -01:03
2008 07:52 00:39 54 05:39 -00:38
2009 10:38 -01:32 37 06:39 -00:49
2010 10:59 -01:13 46 07:22 -00:53
2011 12:58 -01:07 58 08:10 -00:55

Male Race Participants

I can almost copy what I’ve written about the field for IM Florida: A large field, but no real rockstars. We still have a few well known names that could easily contend for the top 10 in Kona 2013, such as Tom Lowe, James Cunnama or Mathias Hecht. Add in a couple of other strong, but maybe not quite as experienced athletes such as Richie Cunningham or Jan Van Berkel in their second IMs or TJ Tollakson, Matty Reed or Justin Daerr that may just take the next step forward. (Update: I thought James was considering Arizona, but he’s racing in Cozumel. My bad.)

Again, similar to Florida, there may be quite a few changes in the start list, with more athletes entering late and some others withdrawing.

Rank Name Nation Expected Time Rating Rank
1 Richie Cunningham USA 08:25:26 08:33:12 24
2 Tom Lowe GBR 08:26:14 08:34:01 27
3 Jan Van Berkel SUI 08:30:30 08:38:21 39
4 James Cunnama ZAF 08:30:41 08:38:32 40
5 Mathias Hecht SWI 08:31:02 08:38:53 42
6 Stephan Vuckovic GER 08:34:15 08:42:09 49
7 TJ Tollakson USA 08:36:30 08:44:26 62
8 Georg Potrebitsch GER 08:37:22 08:45:19 68
9 Torsten Abel GER 08:37:54 08:45:52 73
10 Matty Reed USA 08:38:53 08:46:51 79
11 Justin Daerr USA 08:40:55 08:48:55 88
12 Fraser Cartmell GBR 08:48:36 08:56:43 133
13 Swen Sundberg GER 08:48:38 08:56:45 134
14 Matthew Russell USA 08:52:18 09:00:29 153
15 Kevin Taddonio USA 08:52:45 09:00:56 156
16 Domenico Passuello ITA 08:54:10 09:02:23 166
17 Luke Dragstra NZL 08:58:14 09:06:30 191
18 Ian Mikelson USA 08:59:37 09:07:55 207
19 Michael Wetzel GER 09:00:02 09:08:20 211
20 Jarmo Hast FIN 09:02:05 09:10:25 231
21 Markus Ressler AUT 09:03:55 09:12:17 237
22 Dan Brown PHI 09:04:57 09:13:19 241
23 Bryan Rhodes NZL 09:06:42 09:15:06 254
24 Jared Milam USA 09:07:46 09:16:11 264
25 Thomas Gerlach USA 09:16:11 09:24:44 328
26 Kyle Marcotte CAN 09:18:07 09:26:42 346
27 Brendan Halpin USA 09:20:36 09:29:13 364
28 Anthony Toth CAN 09:21:44 09:30:22 370
29 Adam O’Meara CAN 09:22:25 09:31:04 376
30 Manuel Wyss SWI 09:22:59 09:31:38 385
31 Lewis Elliot USA 09:25:25 09:34:06 399
32 Daniel Mueller GER 09:26:12 09:34:54 407
33 Tyler Butterfield BMU 09:26:38 09:35:20 410
34 Jeff Paul 09:29:51 09:38:36 423
35 Yeun Sik Ham KOR 09:32:31 09:41:19 439
36 Blake Becker USA 09:34:49 09:43:39 458
37 Matjaz Kovac SVN 09:43:30 09:52:28 522
38 Jozef Vrabel SVK 09:45:47 09:54:47 538
39 Heath Thurston USA 09:54:43 10:03:51 593
40 Timothy Beardall AUS 10:00:15 10:09:28 627
41 Nils Frommhold n/a unrated n/a
42 Richard Allen GBR n/a unrated n/a
43 Nicolas Hemet n/a unrated n/a
44 Jose Rosales-Yepez USA n/a unrated n/a
45 Adam Bohach n/a unrated n/a
46 Jason Watson n/a unrated n/a
47 Derek Garcia n/a unrated n/a
48 Christopher Ganter n/a unrated n/a
49 Alun Woodward GBR n/a unrated n/a
50 Marek Jaskolka n/a unrated n/a
51 Anu Vaidyanathan IND n/a unrated n/a

Update: There are a few well know athletes that are not on the start list but have announced that they will start in Arizona:

  • Jordan Rapp (rated 8:27:33) (Update3: The Rappstar isn’t starting after all: He crashed on a bike ride, separated his shoulder and dislocated a finger. More on his blog.
  • Andy Potts (rated 8:28:13) (Update2: Pottsy tweeted that he ended his season after the Austin 70.3.) 

Female Race Participants

On the women’s side, Kona winner Leanda Cave looks to become the second person securing a Kona spot (after Rinnie validated in Florida). She did the same Kona – Arizona couple last year, and what success it was (both in 2011 and 2012)! But with some of the other athletes in the race (most notably Linsey, Meredith and Kelly), she has to be in top form to repeat her 2011 win.

Rank Name Nation Expected Time Rating Rank
1 Leanda Cave GBR 09:15:26 09:23:58 11
2 Linsey Corbin USA 09:16:34 09:25:07 13
3 Meredith Kessler USA 09:22:23 09:31:02 21
4 Kelly Williamson USA 09:22:51 09:31:30 23
5 Corinne Abraham GBR 09:27:48 09:36:32 35
6 Mirjam Weerd NLD 09:33:56 09:42:45 49
7 Jessica Smith USA 09:39:40 09:48:34 67
8 Tamara Kozulina UKR 09:39:42 09:48:37 67
9 Sarah Piampiano USA 09:44:38 09:53:37 82
10 Sara Gross CAN 09:45:45 09:54:45 85
11 Uli Bromme USA 09:48:21 09:57:23 93
12 Charisa Wernick USA 09:49:20 09:58:23 96
13 Janelle Morrison CAN 09:49:27 09:58:31 97
14 Kristin Lie NOR 09:55:49 10:04:58 121
15 Jacqui Gordon USA 10:00:31 10:09:45 140
16 Nina Pekerman ISR 10:01:55 10:11:10 145
17 Malaika Homo USA 10:05:09 10:14:27 150
18 Natasha Van der Merwe USA 10:08:48 10:18:09 163
19 Beth Shutt USA 10:13:19 10:22:45 179
20 Cindy Lewis 10:16:33 10:26:02 185
21 Trish Deim USA 10:21:05 10:30:38 196
22 Amber Ferreira USA 10:25:12 10:34:48 204
23 Leslie Lamacchia USA 10:28:08 10:37:47 211
24 Erin Young 10:39:51 10:49:41 235
25 Kathrin Mannweiler GER 11:03:53 11:14:05 261
26 Kim Schwabenbauer n/a unrated n/a

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants (updated)

The addition of Pottsy and Rappstar completely change the odds:

Jordan Rapp: 47% (1-1)

TJ Tollakson: 12% (7-1)

Tom Lowe: 11% (8-1)

Mathias Hecht: 11% (8-1)

Torsten Abel: 9% (10-1)

Georg Potrebitsch: 3% (38-1)

Female Race Participants

Leanda Cave: 44% (1-1)

Linsey Corbin: 29% (3-1)

Meredith Kessler: 15% (6-1)

Kelly Williamson: 7% (14-1)

Mirjam Weerd: 4% (26-1)

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