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Ironman Austria 2016 – Analyzing Results

Race Conditions

Austria is a fast course, and the bike and run times were as quick as any year. However, the swim was very slow this year (adjustment of -3:27 compared to swim rating of 1:54 before this year’s race) – about five minutes slower than normal! The non-wetsuit conditions may have had an influence, but five minutes seems a pretty large difference for that.

After the slower swim, Mirinda Carfrae made the most of the fast “on land” conditions – she missed the bike course record by only four minutes, then set a new run record of 2:49:06 and also a new overall course record of 8:41:17.

Male Race Results

The pre-race favorite, Marino Vanhoenacker had another great race in Austria – he remains unbeaten in Klagenfurt as the eight times winner.

Marino Austria Bike

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to expected Prize Money
1 Marino Vanhoenacker BEL 00:52:38 04:19:56 02:47:13 08:04:18 -04:43 US$ 14000
2 Viktor Zyemtsev USA 00:52:49 04:32:36 02:39:57 08:09:54 -15:07 US$ 7000
3 Alessandro Degasperi ITA 00:52:39 04:32:39 02:42:58 08:13:53 -05:38 US$ 4500
4 Michael Weiss AUT 00:56:16 04:21:04 02:51:57 08:14:45 -01:40 US$ 3000
5 Bart Aernouts BEL 00:56:48 04:28:27 02:46:42 08:16:32 01:45 US$ 2500
6 Paul Reitmayr AUT 00:52:42 04:24:08 02:58:34 08:19:52 n/a US$ 2000
7 Denis Sketako SLO 00:56:08 04:29:29 02:54:20 08:24:23 -31:19 US$ 1500
8 Matic Modic SLO 00:56:55 04:41:32 02:46:11 08:29:39 -18:14 US$ 1250
9 Pavel Simko SVK 00:55:27 04:33:04 03:04:37 08:38:14 n/a US$ 1000
10 Bart Borghs BEL 01:04:51 04:48:08 02:53:29 08:52:00 n/a US$ 750
11 Thiago Vinhal BRA 00:52:34 04:56:36 02:59:31 08:54:21 08:25
12 Lluis Vila aguilar ESP 01:01:24 04:50:10 03:02:00 08:58:18 n/a
13 Michael Louys BEL 01:08:23 04:40:08 03:07:12 09:02:02 -16:10
14 Christoph Schlagbauer AUT 01:01:19 04:47:28 03:12:03 09:05:40 -1:18:49
15 Harri Sokk EST 01:01:08 04:47:06 03:11:58 09:06:39 -05:38
16 Joan Capdevila ESP 01:01:38 04:51:40 03:06:12 09:07:15 n/a
17 David Jilek CZE 01:01:25 04:47:17 03:13:27 09:07:53 -21:55
18 Xavier Torrades ESP 00:52:44 04:37:31 03:34:42 09:09:41 26:51
19 Nicholas Chase USA 00:55:48 04:50:35 03:21:38 09:13:19 n/a
20 Vincent Riess AUT 00:55:23 04:53:16 03:23:43 09:19:03 28:04
21 Juha Laitinen FIN 01:08:29 04:56:26 03:07:01 09:19:05 -39:16
22 Gergö Molnar HUN 00:52:45 04:46:05 03:37:37 09:21:31 30:36
23 Gili Oriol ESP 01:01:29 05:01:35 03:19:38 09:29:04 -16:46
24 Stephan Trettin GER 01:05:50 04:48:37 03:32:55 09:32:22 -25:40
25 Ludovic Le Guellec FRA 01:02:30 05:20:18 03:23:16 09:54:29 00:19
26 Reinaldo De Oliveira BRA 01:03:49 05:09:41 03:43:08 10:05:05 -03:55
27 Maximilian Gruber AUT 01:16:24 05:16:33 03:33:18 10:13:22 n/a
28 Markus Mlinar AUT 01:05:19 04:57:08 04:18:59 10:27:56 1:12:10
29 David Krupicka CZE 01:09:00 05:09:49 04:02:32 10:28:58 n/a
30 Michal Jalovecky CZE 01:08:55 05:45:42 03:29:41 10:30:45 04:53
31 Josef Svoboda CZE 01:23:00 05:22:29 03:47:30 10:44:12 -58:01
32 Marek Nemcik SVK 01:16:12 05:46:03 04:04:33 11:15:12 -27:36
Antony Costes FRA 00:52:36 04:24:20 DNF
Christian Birngruber AUT 00:56:13 04:28:42 DNF
Paul Ruttmann AUT 01:01:33 04:36:48 DNF
Andreas Fuchs AUT 01:04:39 04:48:52 DNF
Martin Kleinl AUT 01:09:18 04:45:29 DNF
Freddy Lampret ZAF 00:55:36 05:00:38 DNF
Ivan Jezko SVK 01:05:02 04:52:47 DNF
Albert Garces ESP 01:11:03 05:03:11 DNF
Oliver Simon GBR 00:56:19 DNF
Alen Kralj SVN 01:02:11 DNF
Santiago Abad de Agueda ESP 01:05:20 DNF

A few Kona slots are safe after Austria: Bart Aernouts, Alessandro Degasperri and Michael Weiss should have enough points for a July slot.

Female Race Results

Rinny Austria FinishKaren Thibodeau was first out of the water, but Miranda Carfrae wasn’t too far behind. She had a great bike ride: the fastest of the day and in fact all of 2016 so far, only four minutes off the course record held by Diana Riesler from 2011. She then had one of the runs she is famous for: Her 2:49:06 marathon is of course a new record, the fastest of the year and a personal best for her. Only Chrissie Wellington has run faster than her with a 2:44:35 (Roth 2011) and a 2:48:54 (Roth 2010). Ronny’s total time of 8:41:17 is of course the fastest time of this year, a new course record and the 11th fastest time over the IM-distance. Rinny made a big statement that she’s still a force to reckon with in Kona and obviously very happy with her race.

With Michi Herlbauer (also going sub-9!) and Lisi Gruber two Austrians picked up the other podium spots.

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to expected Prize Money
1 Mirinda Carfrae AUS 00:59:15 04:47:38 02:49:06 08:41:17 -14:32 US$ 14000
2 Michaela Herlbauer AUT 00:59:14 04:53:47 02:59:22 08:57:23 -25:40 US$ 7000
3 Elisabeth Gruber AUT 01:06:31 05:03:23 03:01:57 09:17:20 -03:58 US$ 4500
4 Amber Ferreira USA 01:01:39 04:59:05 03:26:28 09:34:51 -02:37 US$ 3000
5 Michaela Rudolf AUT 01:08:41 05:05:40 03:23:43 09:43:59 -00:48 US$ 2500
6 Karen Thibodeau CAN 00:57:32 05:15:58 03:25:41 09:44:43 04:37 US$ 2000
7 Jana Candrova CZE 01:12:51 05:14:52 03:34:09 10:08:36 -10:07 US$ 1500

Among the Austria finishers, only Mirinda Carfrae can plan for Kona: She validated her Automatic Qualifier slot.

(Photo Credit: Getty Images for Ironman)

Ironman Germany 2016 (July 3rd) – Predictions

IMFraLogoUpdate June 28th: Miranda Carfrae has won IM Austria, so she is unlikely to race in Frankfurt.

Update June 28th: For the interesting back story of Caroline Livesey, please have a look at my profile on her.

Update July 1st: After the Pro Meeting, it’s clear that a number of athletes from the original startlist won’t be racing. I’ve crossed out all of those who have not signed in.

Previous Winners

Year Male Winner Time Female Winner Time
2005 Normann Stadler (GER) 08:20:50 Lisa Bentley (CAN) 09:15:31
2006 Cameron Brown (NZL) 08:13:40 Andrea Steinbecher (GER) 09:16:17
2007 Timo Bracht (GER) 08:09:15 Nicole Leder (GER) 09:04:11
2008 Chris McCormack (AUS) 07:59:55 Chrissie Wellington (GBR) 08:51:24
2009 Timo Bracht (GER) 07:59:15 Sandra Wallenhorst (GER) 08:58:08
2010 Andreas Raelert (GER) 08:05:15 Sandra Wallenhorst (GER) 09:04:27
2011 Faris Al-Sultan (GER) 08:13:50 Caroline Steffen (SUI) 09:12:13
2012 Marino Vanhoenacker (BEL) 08:03:31 Caroline Steffen (SUI) 08:52:33
2013 Eneko Llanos (ESP) 07:59:58 Camilla Pedersen (DEN) 08:56:01
2014 Sebastian Kienle (GER) 07:55:14 Corinne Abraham (GBR) 08:52:40
2015 Jan Frodeno (GER) 07:49:48 Daniela Ryf (SUI) 08:51:00

Last Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Jan Frodeno GER 00:46:02 04:08:43 02:50:49 07:49:48
2 Sebastian Kienle GER 00:50:03 04:11:07 02:56:44 08:01:39
3 Andi Boecherer GER 00:46:56 04:14:05 02:58:14 08:03:49

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Daniela Ryf SUI 00:52:46 04:47:50 03:06:06 08:51:00
2 Julia Gajer GER 00:52:47 04:55:22 03:09:04 09:01:58
3 Caroline Steffen SUI 00:52:42 04:58:52 03:16:26 09:11:55

Course Records

Leg Gender Record Athlete Date
Total overall 07:49:48 Jan Frodeno 2015-07-05
Swim overall 00:42:17 Jan Sibbersen 2004-07-12
Bike overall 04:08:43 Jan Frodeno 2015-07-05
Run overall 02:42:33 Timo Bracht 2008-07-06
Total female 08:51:00 Daniela Ryf 2015-07-05
Swim female 00:45:04 Amanda Stevens 2012-07-08
Bike female 04:44:25 Natascha Badmann 2014-07-06
Run female 02:57:13 Kristin Moeller 2013-07-07

Course Rating

The Course Rating for IM Germany is 11:53.

Race Adjustments for IM Germany

Year Adjustment Swim Adj. Bike Adj. Run Adj. # of Finishers Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating
2005 -03:26 00:41 04:40 -04:09 21 -03:26 00:41 04:40 -04:09
2006 12:14 n/a n/a n/a 21 04:24 00:41 04:40 -04:09
2007 20:42 01:41 14:05 04:59 35 09:50 01:11 09:23 00:25
2008 23:08 04:28 08:29 06:33 21 of 28 13:10 02:17 09:05 02:28
2009 17:33 02:56 13:26 -00:13 19 of 25 14:02 02:27 10:10 01:48
2010 08:27 00:46 04:58 01:02 30 13:06 02:07 09:08 01:38
2011 08:18 01:28 05:50 01:11 41 12:25 02:00 08:35 01:34
2012 09:31 03:13 04:27 00:45 37 12:03 02:11 07:59 01:27
2013 16:32 02:16 09:16 05:09 69 12:33 02:11 08:09 01:55
2014 12:34 01:59 13:41 01:46 39 of 56 12:33 02:10 08:46 01:54
2015 05:12 -00:29 08:34 -02:32 32 of 44 11:53 01:54 08:45 01:27

KPR points and Prize Money

IM Germany is a P-4000 race and the winners receive an Automatic Qualifier slot. It has a total prize purse of 150.000 US$.

Female Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Consistency Overall
1 1 Daniela Ryf SUI 08:46:44 08:59:41 00:50:15 04:47:35 03:03:55 100% +0% -0% (5) 1
2 2 Mirinda Carfrae AUS 08:54:21 09:08:15 00:53:21 05:00:05 02:55:55 32% +20% -49% (13) (3)
3 32 Melissa Hauschildt AUS 09:05:44 09:32:16 00:53:28 04:57:45 03:09:32 39% +61% -0% (2) (35)
4 8 Diana Riesler GER 09:14:17 09:31:45 00:55:37 04:54:17 03:19:22 46% +14% -40% (18) 32
5 4 Kristin Moeller GER 09:16:01 09:35:55 01:00:27 05:09:43 03:00:51 83% +15% -2% (17) 40
6 23 Astrid Stienen GER 09:22:04 09:46:33 00:56:11 05:00:11 03:20:42 54% +15% -31% (8) 62
7 6 Daniela Saemmler GER 09:23:10 09:40:22 00:53:09 05:04:09 03:20:52 85% +0% -15% (7) 49
8 33 Emma Bilham SUI 09:23:55 09:48:12 00:52:41 05:09:03 03:17:11 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (65)
9 25 Katja Konschak GER 09:29:51 09:59:46 00:50:08 05:19:26 03:15:17 51% +25% -24% (15) 89
10 5 Natascha Schmitt GER 09:31:11 10:11:37 00:51:41 05:19:17 03:15:14 36% +16% -48% (5) 111
11 12 Dimity-Lee Duke AUS 09:36:13 09:45:48 00:58:44 05:12:05 03:20:23 76% +24% -0% (9) 61
12 22 Bianca Steurer AUT 09:36:29 09:53:23 00:56:02 05:15:36 03:19:51 74% +26% -0% (4) 77
13 27 Carolin Lehrieder GER 09:36:31 09:57:37 00:52:54 05:16:08 03:22:28 30% +23% -46% (6) 84
14 24 Verena Walter GER 09:38:18 10:02:37 00:57:21 05:09:29 03:26:28 53% +29% -18% (5) 94
15 7 Evi Neuscheler GER 09:38:32 09:55:05 01:01:03 05:05:03 03:27:25 60% +40% -0% (3) (80)
16 10 Saleta Castro Nogueira ESP 09:43:39 10:17:00 00:53:41 05:19:02 03:25:56 39% +35% -26% (9) 119
17 14 Katharina Grohmann GER 09:44:32 10:05:32 01:07:59 05:12:03 03:19:30 100% +0% -0% (11) 100
18 19 Caroline Livesey GBR 09:48:44 10:08:45 00:58:33 05:15:25 03:29:45 61% +0% -39% (6) 106
19 26 Mariana Andrade BRA 09:50:16 10:17:33 00:58:04 05:14:04 03:33:08 14% +49% -37% (11) 124
20 13 Christine Fletcher CAN 09:57:34 10:10:32 00:56:42 05:19:25 03:36:27 92% +8% -0% (20) 109
21 17 Petra Krejcova CZE 09:59:14 10:25:02 01:00:50 05:33:11 03:20:12 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (151)
22 9 Celia Kuch GER 10:01:26 10:19:42 01:01:38 05:18:07 03:36:41 79% +21% -0% (17) 132
23 16 Helena Herrero Gomez ESP 10:06:14 10:30:23 00:58:33 05:42:18 03:20:23 25% +0% -75% (5) 160
24 29 Nicole Woysch GER 10:07:46 10:54:33 00:55:54 05:16:16 03:50:36 22% +3% -75% (21) (174)
25 28 Nina Kuhn GER 10:09:26 10:35:41 00:59:08 05:28:28 03:36:50 62% +0% -38% (2) (167)
26 18 Angela Kuehnlein GER 10:11:22 10:29:50 01:00:19 05:31:55 03:34:08 34% +27% -39% (5) 158
15 Lotty Harari PAN n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)

Male Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Consistency Overall
1 51 Sebastian Kienle GER 08:00:16 08:14:29 00:48:15 04:14:21 02:52:41 85% +12% -3% (11) 3
2 53 Andi Boecherer GER 08:05:01 08:32:01 00:45:14 04:16:44 02:58:04 58% +39% -3% (12) 27
3 55 Bas Diederen NED 08:08:01 08:30:09 00:45:55 04:23:46 02:53:19 42% +10% -48% (15) 22
4 60 Clemente Alonso McKernan ESP 08:10:13 08:30:56 00:45:24 04:30:23 02:49:27 56% +14% -31% (13) (24)
5 56 Timothy O’Donnell USA 08:11:14 08:27:01 00:45:57 04:27:30 02:52:47 14% +63% -23% (11) 16
6 112 Eneko Llanos ESP 08:12:39 08:23:10 00:46:14 04:22:39 02:58:46 90% +0% -10% (24) 8
7 90 Michael Weiss AUT 08:18:24 08:32:17 00:52:25 04:23:07 02:57:52 89% +11% -0% (13) 28
8 72 Christian Kramer GER 08:20:53 08:38:43 00:45:49 04:30:47 02:59:17 72% +6% -22% (17) 53
9 62 Denis Chevrot FRA 08:23:32 08:36:57 00:45:20 04:36:20 02:56:52 32% +12% -55% (8) 46
10 69 Joe Gambles AUS 08:23:57 08:40:16 00:46:53 04:32:54 02:59:10 44% +7% -50% (7) (56)
11 59 Marko Albert EST 08:25:34 08:36:12 00:45:25 04:33:42 03:01:27 91% +6% -3% (14) 42
12 97 Victor Del Corral ESP 08:26:28 08:34:42 00:53:44 04:36:06 02:51:38 70% +0% -30% (13) 39
13 115 Igor Amorelli BRA 08:27:12 08:46:09 00:46:03 04:33:37 03:02:31 41% +15% -44% (9) 74
14 58 Johann Ackermann GER 08:27:16 08:58:33 00:47:05 04:30:52 03:04:19 26% +0% -74% (6) (115)
15 94 Marc Duelsen GER 08:27:31 08:46:01 00:50:09 04:32:57 02:59:25 60% +0% -40% (6) (72)
16 116 Jeremy Jurkiewicz FRA 08:29:41 08:45:10 00:45:58 04:41:34 02:57:09 62% +0% -38% (11) (70)
17 61 Alberto Casadei ITA 08:31:58 08:48:52 00:45:53 04:42:46 02:58:19 38% +16% -46% (7) 83
18 96 Anton Blokhin UKR 08:35:14 08:57:29 00:47:13 04:39:45 03:03:16 56% +3% -42% (19) 112
19 67 Herve Faure FRA 08:35:46 08:50:23 00:49:29 04:38:02 03:03:15 45% +0% -55% (8) (88)
20 70 Esben Hovgaard DEN 08:36:37 08:55:54 00:51:54 04:36:51 03:02:52 35% +25% -40% (9) 105
21 85 Pascal Ramali GER 08:36:51 09:04:29 00:56:57 04:31:01 03:03:52 49% +0% -51% (2) (146)
22 117 Markus Thomschke GER 08:37:14 08:57:39 00:51:25 04:32:26 03:08:22 62% +12% -26% (15) 113
23 87 Sylvain Sudrie FRA 08:41:00 09:03:26 00:48:03 04:41:30 03:06:26 53% +0% -47% (2) (138)
24 109 Gudmund Snilstveit NOR 08:41:33 08:59:30 00:54:57 04:34:15 03:07:21 61% +28% -11% (7) 122
25 111 Christian Brader GER 08:41:36 08:54:08 00:54:20 04:43:57 02:58:19 84% +6% -10% (32) 97
26 104 Roman Deisenhofer GER 08:43:12 09:05:52 00:51:16 04:37:03 03:09:53 38% +62% -0% (4) 152
27 120 Bertrand Billard FRA 08:44:43 09:09:16 00:47:37 04:35:24 03:16:42 9% +17% -73% (7) 163
28 78 Matic Modic SLO 08:44:54 09:04:24 00:53:13 04:42:02 03:04:39 47% +39% -13% (6) 144
29 95 Mike Schifferle SUI 08:45:13 09:02:15 00:57:54 04:39:38 03:02:41 84% +12% -4% (54) 130
30 68 Marton Flander HUN 08:45:59 09:08:38 00:47:32 04:55:17 02:58:10 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (161)
31 80 Julian Mutterer GER 08:47:05 09:09:47 00:50:07 04:48:11 03:03:47 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (166)
32 86 Daniil Sapunov UKR 08:49:05 09:11:52 00:46:52 04:50:28 03:06:45 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (175)
33 121 Ivan Risti ITA 08:51:27 09:06:43 00:47:39 04:47:41 03:11:07 77% +0% -23% (5) 154
34 114 Will Clarke GBR 08:52:22 09:20:51 00:48:30 04:40:17 03:18:36 37% +0% -63% (2) (198)
35 79 Gergö Molnar HUN 08:53:51 09:08:36 00:48:27 04:47:39 03:12:45 58% +0% -42% (6) 160
36 92 Denis Sketako SLO 08:57:28 09:17:42 00:56:11 04:44:23 03:11:54 100% +0% -0% (2) (194)
37 119 Michael Davidson ZAF 08:58:39 09:13:32 00:54:43 04:50:54 03:08:01 54% +0% -46% (4) 179
38 65 Hywel Davies GBR 09:08:26 09:24:30 00:57:44 04:51:17 03:14:24 95% +5% -0% (6) (206)
39 75 Felipe De Oliveira Manente BRA 09:11:33 09:37:20 00:51:38 04:55:42 03:19:14 18% +7% -75% (8) 241
40 71 Ivan Jezko SVK 09:12:21 09:43:49 00:57:39 04:52:49 03:16:53 39% +33% -28% (9) 254
41 74 Michael Louys BEL 09:15:03 09:35:44 00:59:56 04:49:47 03:20:20 55% +15% -30% (7) 238
42 110 Thomas Bosch GER 09:18:47 09:42:50 00:57:32 04:59:28 03:16:47 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (252)
43 82 Young Hwan Oh KOR 09:20:37 09:57:49 00:59:20 04:59:04 03:17:12 22% +32% -46% (4) (272)
44 118 Eneko Elosegui ESP 09:20:54 09:38:41 00:56:10 04:47:39 03:32:06 73% +25% -1% (14) 246
45 84 Alfred Rahm GER 09:27:15 09:50:54 01:02:06 04:58:10 03:21:59 60% +1% -40% (17) 263
46 113 Lukas Polan CZE 09:30:04 09:56:55 01:00:12 04:59:39 03:25:12 30% +15% -55% (9) 271
47 73 Ludovic Le Guellec FRA 09:32:29 10:13:14 00:59:17 05:13:05 03:15:07 56% +5% -39% (18) 285
48 107 David Jilek CZE 09:33:15 09:53:28 00:57:29 04:57:06 03:33:39 74% +0% -26% (5) 266
49 83 Gilian Oriet SUI 09:37:53 09:54:53 00:55:39 05:01:05 03:36:09 26% +12% -62% (9) 268
50 66 Vincent Depuiset FRA 09:38:52 09:59:28 01:06:36 05:05:10 03:22:06 66% +15% -19% (7) 276
51 91 Remmert Wielinga NED 10:00:03 10:52:28 01:10:06 04:57:28 03:47:29 7% +11% -82% (6) (298)
52 89 Michal Volejnik CZE 10:54:41 11:22:52 01:01:30 05:16:11 04:32:00 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (303)
53 81 Marek Nemcik SVK 11:26:49 12:04:43 01:09:16 05:38:51 04:33:42 39% +20% -41% (33) 303
63 Maciej Chmura POL n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
77 Rayco Marrero Avero ESP n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (1 IM Pro race) (n/a)
88 Kevin Thewes GER n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
98 Olivier Esser BEL n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
99 David Krupicka CZE n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
105 Alexander Schilling GER n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
106 Youri Severin NED n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
108 Petr Bednar CZE n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
122 Timo Moeschk GER n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)

KPR Situation

Female Race Participants

Similar to Sebi, all Daniela needs to make it to Kona is to finish an Ironman. As there are only 28 July slots for the women, they need about 4.500 points to qualify.

Emma Bilham (3.515) and Bianca Steuerer (3.235) are the best placed athletes, they should be okay with a sixth place. Dimity-Lee Duke already has five results, so even with her 3.330 points she needs to finish fifth – as do Kristin Möller and Diana Riesler. Daniela Sämmler (2.400) and Verena Walter (2.510) are looking for a fourth place. The next group needs a podium finish – Mariana Andrade, Katharina Grohmann, Caroline Livesey, Natascha Schmitt and Astrid Stienen all have between 2.100 and 1.500 points.

Male Race Participants

Before Frankfurt, a lot of athletes are looking to score well in order to get the points needed to qualify. Eneko Llanos is the only athlete who is already safe for Kona, he wants to race Frankfurt to work on his race plan. Sebastian Kienle, Tim O’Donnell and probably Andi Boecherer just need an Ironman finish in order to be eligible for a July slot.

Next up is a group of athletes that are close to the projected cutoff of 3.500 points: Michael Weiss (3.470) and Markus Thomschke (3.130) are closest but already have five results. Similar to Marko Albert (3.095) they should be okay with a 9th place (855 points). The French group of Jeremy Jurkiewicz, Bertrand Billard and Denis Chevrot are around 2.400 points, they have to look for a seventh place (1.335 points). There is another group around 2.000 points (Christian Kramer who also has five results already, Victor Del Corral, Joe Gambles, Clemente Alsonso) they probably need a 6th or better (1.670).

Winning Odds

Female Race Participants

Mirinda Carfrae is on the startlist, but probably only as a backup for Austria the week before. Therefore a showdown with Kona champion Daniela Ryf will likely have to wait until October. Even with Rinny on the start line, Dani is the clear favorite and if she is anywhere close to last year’s form, there is no doubt that she will continue her winning streak. If anyone is going to challenge her, it could be Mel Hauschildt. She has been injured for some time, she is rumored to be in a really good bike shape and hopefully she’ll be able to run well on race day.

After last year’s second place by Julia Gajer, a lot of German women are eying the podium: Diana Riesler didn’t have a good race at Lanzarote, Kristin Möller still needs more points after a fifth place in Brasil, Astrid Stienen has had a long focused build towards Frankfurt this year and Daniela Sämmler wants to show that her win at IM Mallorca was just a step on her way to Kona.

  • Daniela Ryf: 45% (1-1)
  • Mirinda Carfrae: 30% (2-1)
  • Diana Riesler: 8% (11-1)
  • Melissa Hauschildt: 8% (12-1)

Male Race Participants

Sebastian Kienle, 2014 winner of IM Frankfurt and IM Hawaii, is back in Frankfurt to reclaim the first of the titles he lost to Jan Frodeno last year. Sebi is the favorite going into the race but he faces strong competition. Last year Andi Boecherer had a great race to finish in third, this year his prep races have been going well and he seems to be ready to challenge Sebi. Tim O’Donnell is an interesting addition to the field – after his second place in Kona he wants to show he can race well against the Germans in their home country. Bas Diederen has raced well in Frankfurt a number of times, and the 2013 champion Eneko Llanos has hopefully figured out his stomach issues on the run. I’m be pretty sure that it’s going to take at least a sub-8 finish to win the race – even if Frodo’s course record from last year will be hard to beat.

  • Sebastian Kienle: 45% (1-1)
  • Andi Boecherer: 18% (4-1)
  • Clemente Alonso McKernan: 12% (8-1)
  • Bas Diederen: 8% (11-1)
  • Timothy O’Donnell: 7% (14-1)
  • Eneko Llanos: 3% (30-1)

Ironman Austria (June 26th) – Predictions

IMAustriaLogoUpdate June 16th: Shortly after the startlist was published, Natascha Badmann told the organizers she won’t be racing as she is still recovering from a crash at 70.3 Pescara.

Previous Winners

Year Male Winner Time Female Winner Time
2005 Raynard Tissink (ZAF) 08:14:37 Katherine Allen (AUT) 09:07:04
2006 Marino Vanhoenacker (BEL) 08:07:59 Rebecca Preston (AUS) 09:12:09
2007 Marino Vanhoenacker (BEL) 08:06:39 Edith Niederfriniger (ITA) 09:08:45
2008 Marino Vanhoenacker (BEL) 08:06:11 Sandra Wallenhorst (GER) 08:47:26
2009 Marino Vanhoenacker (BEL) 08:01:38 Bella Bayliss (GBR) 08:50:13
2010 Marino Vanhoenacker (BEL) 07:52:05 Eva Dollinger (AUT) 09:18:50
2011 Marino Vanhoenacker (BEL) 07:45:58 Mary Beth Ellis (USA) 08:43:34
2012 Faris Al-Sultan (GER) 08:11:31 Linsey Corbin (USA) 09:09:58
2013 Andreas Raelert (GER) 07:59:51 Erika Csomor (HUN) 08:59:31
2014 Ivan Rana (ESP) 07:48:43 Linsey Corbin (USA) 08:42:42
2015 Marino Vanhoenacker (BEL) 07:48:45 Eva Wutti (AUT) 08:45:37

Last Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Marino Vanhoenacker BEL 00:46:40 04:11:47 02:45:53 07:48:45
2 Michael Weiss AUT 00:51:52 04:20:57 02:48:18 08:06:59
3 Ivan Rana ESP 00:46:36 04:32:55 02:44:27 08:08:25

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Eva Wutti AUT 00:52:39 04:53:57 02:54:42 08:45:37
2 Lisa Huetthaler AUT 00:52:45 04:53:41 03:11:43 09:02:46
3 Sarah Piampiano USA 00:56:59 05:00:09 03:00:12 09:03:10

Course Records

Leg Gender Record Athlete Date
Total overall 07:45:58 Marino Vanhoenacker 2011-07-03
Swim overall 00:42:54 Bart Colpaert 2013-06-30
Bike overall 04:11:47 Marino Vanhoenacker 2015-06-28
Run overall 02:39:24 Marino Vanhoenacker 2011-07-03
Total female 08:42:42 Linsey Corbin 2014-06-29
Swim female 00:45:51 Simone Braendli 2014-06-29
Bike female 04:43:50 Diana Riesler 2011-07-03
Run female 02:54:42 Eva Wutti 2015-06-28

Course Rating

The Course Rating for IM Austria is 18:45.

Race Adjustments for IM Austria

Year Adjustment Swim Adj. Bike Adj. Run Adj. # of Finishers Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating
2006 16:23 02:21 05:39 03:10 39 16:23 02:21 05:39 03:10
2007 14:39 02:24 15:21 02:20 32 15:31 02:22 10:30 02:45
2008 22:57 02:15 14:00 05:55 39 18:00 02:20 11:40 03:48
2009 22:11 01:16 14:53 03:56 37 19:02 02:04 12:28 03:50
2010 17:33 00:53 10:38 02:04 36 18:44 01:50 12:06 03:29
2011 26:23 02:07 14:54 09:46 31 20:01 01:53 12:34 04:32
2012 06:40 -03:09 12:13 -00:11 30 18:07 01:10 12:31 03:51
2013 23:40 05:41 12:33 05:39 60 18:48 01:43 12:31 04:05
2014 20:04 03:01 10:57 07:44 56 of 65 18:57 01:52 12:21 04:29
2015 16:59 02:15 10:10 06:10 32 of 46 18:45 01:54 12:08 04:39

KPR points and Prize Money

IM Austria is a P-2000 race. It has a total prize purse of 75.000 US$.

Male Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Consistency Overall
1 1 Marino Vanhoenacker BEL 07:52:13 08:24:35 00:46:54 04:12:30 02:47:50 46% +18% -37% (21) 10
2 8 Michael Weiss AUT 08:07:27 08:32:17 00:51:52 04:17:59 02:52:36 89% +11% -0% (13) 28
3 3 Bart Aernouts BEL 08:12:17 08:30:40 00:50:07 04:28:40 02:48:30 75% +0% -25% (8) (23)
4 6 Alessandro Degasperi ITA 08:17:17 08:35:24 00:50:11 04:34:42 02:47:25 81% +0% -19% (6) 41
5 4 David Plese SLO 08:17:56 08:41:23 00:50:33 04:30:16 02:52:07 73% +5% -22% (16) 59
6 2 Viktor Zyemtsev USA 08:19:42 08:40:52 00:49:25 04:35:19 02:49:58 74% +0% -26% (18) 57
7 53 Daniel Fontana ITA 08:19:49 08:49:07 00:47:06 04:31:54 02:55:50 42% +0% -58% (11) (84)
8 56 Michael Raelert GER 08:20:46 08:47:46 00:46:08 04:33:07 02:56:31 11% +20% -69% (4) (77)
9 10 Alberto Casadei ITA 08:23:56 08:48:52 00:45:34 04:37:36 02:55:46 38% +16% -46% (7) 83
10 54 Mike Aigroz SUI 08:25:25 08:50:54 00:46:38 04:33:56 02:59:50 51% +3% -46% (21) 90
11 21 Matthias Knossalla GER 08:32:21 09:03:09 01:01:53 04:27:15 02:58:13 29% +71% -0% (2) (137)
12 5 Mauro Baertsch SUI 08:33:15 08:58:46 00:51:43 04:38:41 02:57:51 45% +32% -23% (9) 117
13 47 Harry Wiltshire GBR 08:34:20 08:53:05 00:46:14 04:39:14 03:03:52 26% +32% -42% (14) 95
14 44 Matic Modic SLO 08:35:24 09:04:24 00:52:32 04:37:37 03:00:15 47% +39% -13% (6) 144
15 13 Vincent Riess AUT 08:35:32 09:19:38 00:52:32 04:47:33 02:50:27 11% +0% -89% (5) (196)
16 9 Thiago Vinhal BRA 08:37:26 09:02:59 00:46:50 04:50:27 02:55:09 85% +0% -15% (10) 134
17 29 Gergö Molnar HUN 08:38:17 09:08:36 00:47:24 04:42:16 03:03:36 58% +0% -42% (6) 160
18 57 Daniel Herlbauer AUT 08:39:51 09:19:49 00:51:27 04:38:18 03:05:06 41% +0% -59% (4) (197)
19 27 Xavier Torrades ESP 08:41:18 09:05:35 00:47:36 04:45:17 03:03:26 100% +0% -0% (2) (152)
20 30 Jose Luis Villanueva ESP 08:42:11 09:08:28 00:56:38 04:45:41 02:54:51 38% +8% -54% (13) (159)
21 11 Christian Birngruber AUT 08:43:59 09:13:35 00:50:06 04:36:43 03:12:10 74% +0% -26% (3) (180)
22 14 Andreas Fuchs AUT 08:44:34 09:17:11 00:53:45 04:31:12 03:14:37 76% +0% -24% (9) (192)
23 32 Freddy Lampret ZAF 08:47:46 09:36:27 00:50:36 04:39:29 03:12:41 1% +46% -52% (8) 239
24 43 Antony Costes FRA 08:50:06 09:25:10 00:47:16 04:32:21 03:25:29 47% +0% -53% (2) (207)
25 48 Denis Sketako SLO 08:51:14 09:17:42 00:56:49 04:40:04 03:09:21 100% +0% -0% (2) (194)
26 45 Nicolas Hemet FRA 08:52:57 09:14:25 00:53:46 04:43:44 03:10:27 42% +0% -58% (6) 183
27 35 Oliver Simon GBR 09:03:20 09:33:09 00:47:20 04:44:33 03:26:27 67% +0% -33% (11) 229
28 38 Felipe De Oliveira Manente BRA 09:04:23 09:37:20 00:51:36 04:52:03 03:15:45 18% +7% -75% (8) 241
29 31 Ivan Jezko SVK 09:06:23 09:43:49 00:57:33 04:50:48 03:13:02 39% +33% -28% (9) 254
30 20 Michael Louys BEL 09:09:35 09:35:44 01:00:14 04:47:30 03:16:51 55% +15% -30% (7) 238
31 40 Harri Sokk EST 09:10:08 09:29:51 00:56:42 04:38:11 03:30:15 100% +0% -0% (3) 220
32 17 Markus Mlinar AUT 09:12:27 09:58:31 00:53:47 04:52:07 03:21:33 24% +0% -76% (3) (274)
33 58 Martin Kleinl AUT 09:13:15 09:47:35 00:59:11 04:41:42 03:27:23 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (259)
34 50 David Jilek CZE 09:14:48 09:53:28 00:56:21 04:50:02 03:23:25 74% +0% -26% (5) 266
35 16 Armin Atzlinger AUT 09:17:12 09:46:48 00:55:08 05:06:47 03:10:17 100% +0% -0% (2) (258)
36 55 Lukas Polan CZE 09:19:15 09:56:55 01:00:12 04:56:16 03:17:47 30% +15% -55% (9) 271
37 28 Gili Oriol ESP 09:21:37 10:10:17 00:53:28 04:48:56 03:34:14 49% +51% -0% (2) (284)
38 49 Juha Laitinen FIN 09:31:15 10:16:40 01:02:47 05:02:47 03:20:42 9% +30% -61% (6) 287
39 24 Ludovic Le Guellec FRA 09:34:21 10:13:14 00:58:49 05:09:22 03:21:09 56% +5% -39% (18) 285
40 26 Stephan Trettin GER 09:55:14 10:29:02 00:59:08 05:04:46 03:46:20 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (290)
41 37 Reinaldo De Oliveira BRA 09:58:56 10:41:03 00:59:38 05:10:54 03:43:24 10% +0% -90% (6) (294)
42 42 Michal Jalovecky CZE 10:12:28 10:46:02 00:59:35 05:41:35 03:26:19 67% +0% -33% (3) 296
43 22 Santiago Abad de Agueda ESP 10:15:14 10:50:10 01:01:16 05:13:57 03:55:02 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (298)
44 15 Christoph Schlagbauer AUT 10:20:27 10:55:41 00:57:21 04:50:40 04:27:26 58% +0% -42% (2) (299)
45 34 Josef Svoboda CZE 11:01:30 12:09:58 01:09:18 05:38:35 04:08:37 39% +12% -49% (13) 304
46 33 Marek Nemcik SVK 11:16:19 12:04:43 01:08:28 05:34:07 04:28:43 39% +20% -41% (33) 303
7 Paul Reitmayr AUT n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
12 Paul Ruttmann AUT n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
18 Lluis Vila aguilar ESP n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
19 Maximilian Gruber AUT n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
23 Bart Borghs BEL n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
25 Joan Capdevila ESP n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
36 Albert Garces ESP n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
39 Nicholas Chase USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
41 Pavel Simko SVK n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
46 Alen Kralj SVN n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
51 David Krupicka CZE n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)

As it’s getting closer to the July cutoff, there are a number of athletes looking to secure KPR points to qualify in the July cutoff (projected cutoff at 3.500 points):

  • Bart Aernouts has enough points (4.325) but needs an Ironman finish.
  • Mauro Bartsch should already be safe for Kona (4.025 points).
  • With David Plese (3415), Alessandro Degasperi (3320), Michael Weiss (3415) and Antony Costes (3120) there are four athletes “on the bubble”, if they can add a few more points they should be able to secure a July slot. A result somewhere between 7th = 405 points and 19th = 120 should be enough for them.
  • Harry Wiltshire (2875) and Mike Aigroz (2480) need to finish in the Top3 to secure enough points.
  • Michael Raelert (3220) had to cancel his start at IM France because of an injury, so it’s unclear if he’ll be able to race. He needs an Ironman finish to be eligible for a Kona slot, and a Top7 result should be enough for him to qualify.

Female Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Consistency Overall
1 61 Mirinda Carfrae AUS 08:47:25 09:08:15 00:53:18 04:56:19 02:52:48 32% +20% -49% (13) (3)
2 63 Michaela Herlbauer AUT 09:08:32 09:40:32 00:52:33 05:02:54 03:08:05 48% +0% -52% (4) 50
3 65 Elisabeth Gruber AUT 09:11:12 09:39:12 00:59:11 05:01:14 03:05:47 100% +0% -0% (5) 45
4 62 Natascha Badmann SUI 09:17:50 09:39:17 00:59:40 04:55:43 03:17:27 42% +0% -58% (17) 46
5 70 Gurutze Frades Larralde ESP 09:22:22 09:51:50 00:59:30 05:11:08 03:06:43 47% +53% -0% (6) 72
6 68 Amber Ferreira USA 09:28:08 09:55:55 00:54:26 05:08:44 03:19:58 40% +31% -30% (13) 82
7 64 Bianca Steurer AUT 09:29:26 09:53:23 00:55:25 05:12:12 03:16:49 74% +26% -0% (4) 77
8 73 Karen Thibodeau CAN 09:35:41 09:58:48 00:52:10 05:17:57 03:20:34 59% +0% -41% (10) 87
9 66 Michaela Rudolf AUT 09:36:50 10:03:31 01:01:57 05:04:34 03:25:19 100% +0% -0% (6) 95
10 67 Angela Kuehnlein GER 10:03:25 10:29:50 01:00:17 05:27:47 03:30:21 34% +27% -39% (5) 158
11 69 Jana Candrova CZE 10:06:00 10:38:19 01:02:22 05:24:16 03:34:21 54% +4% -42% (13) 169
12 71 Frankie Sanjana GBR 10:28:14 11:03:55 01:03:48 05:29:25 03:50:01 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (177)

Because the women have fewer slots, they will have to score about 4.500 points for a July slot. There are not too many athletes in the female field concerned about qualifying:

  • Mirinda Carfrae just needs a “competitive finish” to validate her Automatic Qualifier slot.
  • Bianca Steuer has 3235 points, she needs a Top3 result to get to the cutoff.

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

Seven-time winner and course record holder Marino Vanhoenacker is back to defend his title, he has made it clear that his focus for this year is on a good Austria result. If he is on form, he’ll be hard to beat. If Marino runs into problems, watch out for Bart Aernouts. Bart is a fantastic runner who has been struggling a bit to put together a good Ironman result for some time. He has posted one of the fastest runs with a 2:37 marathon at IM France 2013 when he had an epic battle with Fredrik Van Lierde.

  • Marino Vanhoenacker: 64% (1-1)
  • Michael Weiss: 16% (5-1)
  • Bart Aernouts: 7% (13-1)
  • Daniel Fontana: 4% (22-1)

Female Race Participants

There can’t be any doubt that Miranda Carfrae is the clear favorite on the women’s side. Outside of Kona she hasn’t always had the best results, but after her DNF in Kona last year I would guess that she wants to show to Daniela Ryf that she is still someone to be concerned about. The big question is how big of a statement Rinny can make – a few potential goals for her:

  • Austria Course Record: 8:42:42 by Linsey Corbin 2014
  • Rinny’s PR (also Australian Record): 8:38:53 at Roth 2014
  • Fastest “WTC IM”: Chrissie Wellington 8:33:56 South Africa 2011
  • Fastest Ironman-distance: Chrissie Wellington 8:18:13 Roth 2011

Here are the odds for the female race:

  • Mirinda Carfrae: 61% (1-1)
  • Elisabeth Gruber: 14% (6-1)
  • Michaela Herlbauer: 10% (9-1)
  • Natascha Badmann: 7% (14-1)
  • Amber Ferreira: 4% (21-1)

Challenge Denmark – Analyzing Results

Race Conditions

Similar to last year, Challenge Denmark was a quick race with the new course rating of 20:09, mainly because of a fast bike course.

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to expected Prize Money
1 Chris Fischer DEN 00:50:52 04:25:00 02:53:54 08:14:25 -06:56 EUR 6000
2 Matthias Knossalla GER 00:59:30 04:18:24 02:55:28 08:19:04 -27:48 EUR 3900
3 Anders Christensen DEN 00:50:45 04:31:45 03:02:09 08:29:25 00:44 EUR 2750
4 David Naesvik SWE 00:50:57 04:29:57 03:07:54 08:33:30 00:08 EUR 1900
5 Lars Vold NOR 00:50:50 04:36:17 03:03:00 08:34:33 n/a EUR 1500
6 Graeme Stewart GBR 00:49:14 04:46:57 02:59:17 08:40:49 -00:44 EUR 1200
7 Thijs Koelen NED 00:50:58 04:42:34 03:15:33 08:53:45 14:45 EUR 1000

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to expected Prize Money
1 Mirjam Weerd NED 00:49:13 04:57:24 03:16:56 09:08:56 -07:38 EUR 6000
2 Anne Jensen DEN 01:02:42 04:53:43 03:31:20 09:34:44 -21:10 EUR 3900
3 Frankie Sanjana GBR 01:01:23 05:21:13 03:47:54 10:16:12 n/a EUR 2750
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