Challenge Roth

Today all the Challenge Roth starters checked in their bikes in the first transition zone. All day it was hot and sunny – tomorrows conditions are expected to be similar, maybe with a chance for thunderstorm in the afternoon.

Bib Number 1 was one of the first athletes to check in. Timo Bracht will be racing his final Challenge Roth on Sunday, but it won’t be a farewell tour. “I don’t want to high-five people other than on the finish line” he said.

The slight favorite appears to be Bib #3, Nils Frommhold. He won Challenge Roth 2015 and this season was already second at IM South Africa:

Terence Boyzone is #5, he has been nursing a slight running injury and was hoping for a flat run – only to find out the new run course has quite a few ups and downs. He’s still optimistic for a good race tomorrow:

Bart Aernouts is a bit further behind on the startlist – he races with bib #14. He’s happy to have his bike with him, it was lost for two days before finally showing up in Roth on late Thursday evening:

Daniela Ryf (Bib 51) is the clear favorite on the female side, but she has also carried an injury that impacted her Roth prep. Even if she can’t chase Chrissie’s record, she should still be able to win comfortably:

Heather Wurtele is racing with bib #52, her Cervelo P5X received some extra attention to properly fit in the bike racks:

Yvonne Van Vlerken (bib #53) is a crowd favorite, this year she’s not quite sure what she can do having crashed three weeks before in Challenge Heilbronn and is still sporting bandages on both her elbows:

Laura Siddall (#54) has made huge steps forward even after her fourth place in Roth last year. She’s been racing a lot but looks forward to have another crack at a fast time in Roth:

You can follow the race through Challenge Roth’s homepage, there is going to be live streams in German and English.

This year’s Roth races promise to be exciting: A strong men’s field with a number of potential winners, and a female field dominated by Daniela Ryf. Hopefully Daniela will be healthy and fit enough to try to make a go at Chrissie Wellington’s fastest time on the Ironman distance as she announced in May. I have written about some of her Advantages and Hurdles for Triathlete (“Can Ryf Break Wellington’s Iron-Distance World Record?“, check out the post here).

Previous Winners

Year	Male Winner	Time	Female Winner	Time
2005	Chris McCormack (AUS)	07:58:45	Belinda Granger (AUS)	09:14:06
2006	Chris McCormack (AUS)	08:00:52	Joanna Lawn (NZL)	09:01:17
2007	Chris McCormack (AUS)	07:54:23	Yvonne Van Vlerken (NED)	08:51:55
2008	Patrick Vernay (NCL)	08:09:34	Yvonne Van Vlerken (NED)	08:45:48
2009	Michael Goehner (GER)	07:55:53	Chrissie Wellington (GBR)	08:31:59
2010	Rasmus Henning (DEN)	07:52:36	Chrissie Wellington (GBR)	08:19:13
2011	Andreas Raelert (GER)	07:41:33	Chrissie Wellington (GBR)	08:18:13
2012	James Cunnama (ZAF)	07:59:59	Rachel Joyce (GBR)	08:45:04
2013	Dirk Bockel (LUX)	07:52:01	Caroline Steffen (SUI)	08:40:35
2014	Timo Bracht (GER)	07:56:00	Mirinda Carfrae (AUS)	08:38:53
2015	Nils Frommhold (GER)	07:51:28	Yvonne Van Vlerken (NED)	08:50:53
2016	Jan Frodeno (GER)	07:35:39	Daniela Ryf (SUI)	08:22:04

Last Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Time
1	Jan Frodeno	GER	00:45:22	04:08:07	02:39:18	07:35:39
2	Joe Skipper	GBR	00:52:36	04:21:12	02:38:52	07:56:23
3	Nils Frommhold	GER	00:46:59	04:17:34	02:48:50	07:57:49

Female Race Results

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Time
1	Daniela Ryf	SUI	00:49:10	04:31:29	02:57:40	08:22:04
2	Carrie Lester	AUS	00:52:23	04:42:50	03:03:38	08:42:13
3	Yvonne Van Vlerken	NED	00:55:14	04:40:29	03:10:58	08:49:35

Course Records

Leg	Gender	Record	Athlete	Date
Total	overall	07:35:39	Jan Frodeno	2016-07-17
Swim	overall	00:45:22	Jan Frodeno	2016-07-17
Bike	overall	04:08:07	Jan Frodeno	2016-07-17
Run	overall	02:38:52	Joe Skipper	2016-07-17
Total	female	08:18:13	Chrissie Wellington	2011-07-10
Swim	female	00:47:27	Ute Mueckel	2005-06-24
Bike	female	04:31:29	Daniela Ryf	2016-07-17
Run	female	02:44:35	Chrissie Wellington	2011-07-10

Course Rating

The Course Rating for Challenge Roth is 21:22.

Race Adjustments for Challenge Roth

Year	Adjustment	Swim Adj.	Bike Adj.	Run Adj.	# of Finishers	Rating	Swim Rating	Bike Rating	Run Rating
2005	23:16	01:15	13:16	09:25	28	23:16	01:15	13:16	09:25
2006	18:53	01:44	08:33	04:19	41	21:04	01:30	10:54	06:52
2007	29:57	01:18	12:15	08:14	35	24:02	01:26	11:21	07:19
2008	25:59	02:33	09:07	08:30	40	24:31	01:43	10:48	07:37
2009	29:11	02:32	17:28	05:18	43	25:27	01:52	12:08	07:09
2010	20:31	01:04	06:51	04:27	43	24:38	01:44	11:15	06:42
2011	24:18	02:05	17:28	05:32	38	24:35	01:47	12:08	06:32
2012	14:09	02:41	06:42	04:12	50	23:17	01:54	11:28	06:15
2013	22:46	01:01	15:15	04:13	41	23:13	01:48	11:53	06:01
2014	08:34	00:24	14:38	-02:43	37	21:46	01:40	12:09	05:09
2015	19:22	01:35	12:35	04:24	44 of 56	21:32	01:39	12:12	05:05
2016	19:24	01:23	17:02	02:43	39 of 43	21:22	01:38	12:36	04:53

Prize Money

Challenge Roth has a total prize purse of 75.000 EUR.

Estimated Time Plan

The following table shows the time plan for the race start and the estimated times for the first athlete in the transition zones or across the finish line. The estimates are based on the start time and my time estimates, these times can change based on how fast or slow the race ends up:

What	Est. Racetime	Est. Local Time
Male Pro Start		06:30
Female Pro Start		06:35
Age Group Wave Start		06:40 – 07:55
First Male in T1	00:44:29	07:14
First Female in T1	00:49:23	07:24
First Male in T2	05:06:30	11:36
First Female in T2	05:31:27	12:06
Male Winner	07:52:39	14:22
Female Winner	08:25:54	15:00

Roth is on Central European Summer Time, 2 hours ahead of UTC. Here are conversions to a few other time zones:

• + 8 hours: Sydney (AEST), race starts at 14:30
• – 1 hour: United Kingdom (BST), race starts at 5:30
• – 6 hours: US East Coast (EDT), race starts at 12:30am
• – 9 hours: US West Coast (PDT), race starts at 9:30pm on Saturday

There is going to be a German and English language live stream on the Challenge Roth homepage.

Male Race Participants

The strength of the field is 14% of a typical Kona field.

Rank	Bib	Name	Nation	Expected Time	Rating	Exp. Swim	Exp. Bike	Exp. T2	Exp. Run	Consistency	Overall
1	3	Nils Frommhold	GER	07:52:39	08:16:05	00:46:37	04:14:53	05:06:30	02:46:09	88% +0% -12% (9)	3
2	1	Timo Bracht	GER	07:58:52	08:27:24	00:47:31	04:22:18	05:14:48	02:44:04	80% +14% -6% (28)	25
3	14	Bart Aernouts	BEL	08:00:31	08:20:16	00:50:22	04:21:13	05:16:35	02:43:56	89% +0% -11% (11)	9
4	5	Terenzo Bozzone	NZL	08:01:19	08:24:42	00:45:27	04:19:20	05:09:47	02:51:32	54% +21% -26% (13)	20
5	2	Joe Skipper	GBR	08:02:43	08:36:53	00:52:04	04:23:05	05:20:08	02:42:35	36% +21% -43% (16)	59
6	10	Brad Kahlefeldt	AUS	08:08:34	08:30:57	00:44:29	04:30:18	05:19:47	02:48:47	68% +0% -32% (3)	(33)
7	9	Dougal Allan	NZL	08:09:44	08:34:10	00:55:17	04:17:10	05:17:27	02:52:17	85% +7% -8% (9)	44
8	8	Per Bittner	GER	08:15:24	08:44:57	00:47:49	04:27:52	05:20:41	02:54:43	49% +8% -43% (23)	83
9	6	Fabian Rahn	GER	08:18:54	08:53:51	00:55:00	04:34:17	05:34:16	02:44:38	n/a (1 IM Pro race)	(113)
10	13	Chris Fischer	DEN	08:19:17	08:45:15	00:53:12	04:30:52	05:29:04	02:50:13	71% +11% -18% (7)	87
11	12	Herve Faure	FRA	08:24:33	08:51:59	00:49:34	04:32:00	05:26:34	02:57:59	45% +0% -55% (8)	(107)
12	45	Dirk Wijnalda	NED	08:25:00	08:53:02	00:54:17	04:34:46	05:34:04	02:50:56	86% +6% -8% (21)	110
13	15	Christian Brader	GER	08:27:04	08:49:28	00:53:39	04:36:44	05:35:23	02:51:41	83% +4% -13% (36)	100
14	21	Matthias Knossalla	GER	08:28:09	09:10:06	01:02:19	04:25:06	05:32:24	02:55:45	16% +39% -44% (3)	(167)
15	17	Roman Deisenhofer	GER	08:28:56	08:57:34	00:50:09	04:29:23	05:24:32	03:04:24	48% +52% -0% (7)	128
16	18	Jose Estrangeiro	POR	08:29:50	09:04:11	00:48:07	04:37:32	05:30:39	02:59:11	n/a (1 IM Pro race)	(155)
17	41	Jens Frommhold	GER	08:29:54	09:00:45	00:54:11	04:30:25	05:29:36	03:00:18	20% +36% -44% (4)	140
18	31	Guillaume Lecallier	FRA	08:32:45	09:07:19	00:54:22	04:32:33	05:31:54	03:00:51	n/a (1 IM Pro race)	(163)
19	44	Jaroslav Kovacic	SLO	08:33:50	09:04:23	00:47:39	04:43:22	05:36:01	02:57:49	22% +78% -0% (3)	(156)
20	100	Sergio Marques	POR	08:34:10	09:02:19	00:53:29	04:42:07	05:40:36	02:53:34	56% +4% -40% (38)	145
21	101	Darby Thomas	FIN	08:34:15	09:03:16	00:56:59	04:33:49	05:35:48	02:58:27	53% +0% -47% (10)	151
22	3451	Teemu Lemmettylae	FIN	08:36:55	08:59:51	00:55:31	04:39:51	05:40:22	02:56:33	90% +9% -1% (14)	(138)
23	46	Tuukka Miettinen	FIN	08:37:40	09:13:10	00:54:17	04:42:06	05:41:23	02:56:17	50% +13% -37% (9)	(176)
24	11	Sebastian Neef	GER	08:43:26	09:18:43	00:49:43	04:34:58	05:29:41	03:13:45	n/a (1 IM Pro race)	(190)
25	23	Thomas Naasz	NED	08:43:52	09:21:29	00:54:30	04:43:14	05:42:44	03:01:08	69% +31% -0% (6)	197
26	16	Till Schramm	GER	08:49:22	09:21:25	00:53:38	04:40:26	05:39:04	03:10:18	53% +22% -25% (9)	196
27	20	Henry Beck	GER	08:49:41	09:50:38	00:48:08	04:34:05	05:27:13	03:22:28	21% +36% -43% (3)	(260)
28	3456	Sean Donnelly *	GER	08:51:50	09:51:55	00:46:23	04:37:41	05:29:05	03:22:45	12% +14% -74% (3)	(262)
29	22	Andi Fuchs	AUT	08:53:52	09:24:11	00:54:47	04:42:23	05:42:10	03:11:42	100% +0% -0% (2)	(203)
30	32	Christian Jais	GER	08:55:47	09:34:50	00:54:27	04:37:33	05:37:00	03:18:47	37% +63% -0% (2)	(235)
31	29	Stefan Overmars	NED	08:56:30	09:27:15	00:53:44	04:36:27	05:35:12	03:21:18	100% +0% -0% (2)	(218)
32	34	Michael Louys	BEL	08:58:04	09:44:20	01:01:06	04:42:33	05:48:39	03:09:25	45% +7% -48% (12)	(252)
33	39	Young Hwan Oh	KOR	09:03:02	09:30:06	01:00:49	04:52:37	05:58:27	03:04:35	61% +24% -16% (8)	226
34	27	Moises Vidal Gil	ESP	09:11:12	09:42:31	00:55:43	05:03:05	06:03:47	03:07:25	100% +0% -0% (2)	(248)
35	35	Rafael Gomes	POR	09:13:22	09:46:34	00:53:47	05:02:13	06:01:00	03:12:22	100% +0% -0% (2)	(257)
36	40	Travis Hawkins	USA	09:14:35	09:40:40	00:59:59	04:51:55	05:56:54	03:17:41	100% +0% -0% (3)	244
37	38	Peter Kotland	CZE	09:21:05	09:50:49	00:57:06	04:53:16	05:55:21	03:25:44	69% +19% -12% (24)	261
38	25	Nathan Miller	AUS	10:04:50	10:45:36	00:51:54	05:20:58	06:17:51	03:46:59	n/a (1 IM Pro race)	(293)
	4	Maurice Clavel	GER	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	n/a (no IM Pro race)	(n/a)
	19	Markus Hoermann	GER	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	n/a (no IM Pro race)	(n/a)
	24	Michael Smith Larsen	DEN	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	n/a (no IM Pro race)	(n/a)
	26	Marcus Woellner	GER	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	n/a (no IM Pro race)	(n/a)
	28	Ilkka Utriainen	FIN	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	n/a (no IM Pro race)	(n/a)
	36	Jon Albizuri Izaguirre	SPA	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	n/a (no IM Pro race)	(n/a)
	37	Simon Schwarz	GER	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	n/a (no IM Pro race)	(n/a)

Note:Athletes with a ‘*’ are also registered for another race within 8 days.

Female Race Participants

The strength of the field is 21% of a typical Kona field.

Rank	Bib	Name	Nation	Expected Time	Rating	Exp. Swim	Exp. Bike	Exp. T2	Exp. Run	Consistency	Overall
1	51	Daniela Ryf	SUI	08:25:54	08:42:49	00:49:23	04:37:04	05:31:27	02:54:27	88% +0% -12% (10)	1
2	53	Yvonne Van Vlerken	NED	08:50:25	09:22:11	00:55:19	04:44:15	05:44:35	03:05:50	76% +0% -24% (30)	18
3	54	Laura Siddall	GBR	08:57:41	09:32:10	00:55:14	04:49:46	05:50:00	03:07:41	68% +26% -6% (11)	35
4	52	Heather Wurtele	CAN	09:06:56	09:28:48	00:53:02	04:56:10	05:54:12	03:12:44	77% +1% -22% (21)	30
5	3457	Lisa Roberts *	USA	09:09:24	09:30:36	01:02:05	05:03:28	06:10:33	02:58:51	75% +8% -18% (17)	33
6	55	Ruth Brennan Morrey	USA	09:09:40	09:35:17	01:03:49	05:01:36	06:10:24	02:59:16	76% +0% -24% (4)	37
7	56	Annah Watkinson	ZAF	09:14:27	09:42:12	00:56:47	04:58:23	06:00:11	03:14:16	76% +0% -24% (5)	49
8	58	Martina Dogana	ITA	09:24:46	09:49:53	00:57:06	05:11:15	06:13:22	03:11:24	62% +0% -38% (13)	62
9	59	Corina Hengartner	SUI	09:34:33	10:07:17	01:00:04	05:06:58	06:12:03	03:22:30	68% +18% -14% (5)	93
10	3452	Anne Jensen	DEN	09:50:13	10:29:32	01:05:09	05:06:34	06:16:43	03:33:30	44% +21% -35% (6)	(134)
11	60	Steph Corker	CAN	09:52:19	10:32:15	00:59:45	05:22:48	06:27:32	03:24:47	n/a (1 IM Pro race)	(141)
12	57	Vanessa Pereira	POR	09:56:40	10:36:13	01:01:00	05:21:38	06:27:38	03:29:02	52% +0% -48% (12)	145
	61	Ana Revilla	ESP	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	n/a (no IM Pro race)	(n/a)

Note:Athletes with a ‘*’ are also registered for another race within 8 days.

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

• Nils Frommhold: 45% (1-1)
• Terenzo Bozzone: 15% (6-1)
• Timo Bracht: 15% (6-1)
• Joe Skipper: 12% (8-1)
• Bart Aernouts: 11% (8-1)

Female Race Participants

• Daniela Ryf: 78% (1-1)
• Yvonne Van Vlerken: 15% (6-1)
• Laura Siddall: 6% (17-1)

Challenge Roth makes it a bit hard to determine which Pros are race as they have listed all Pros within their agegroup. Nonetheless, here is my best effort at determining the Pro athletes in their startlist and their preliminary bibs.

Male Race Participants

Bib	Name	Nation
1	Timo Bracht	GER
2	Joe Skipper	GBR
3	Nils Frommhold	GER
4	Maurice Clavel	GER
5	Terenzo Bozzone	NZL
6	Fabian Rahn	GER
8	Per Bittner	GER
9	Dougal Allan	NZL
10	Brad Kahlefeldt	AUS
11	Sebastian Neef	GER
12	Herve Faure	FRA
13	Chris Fischer	DEN
14	Bart Aernouts	BEL
15	Christian Brader	GER
16	Till Schramm	GER
17	Roman Deisenhofer	GER
18	Jose Estrangeiro	POR
19	Markus Hoermann	GER
20	Henry Beck	GER
21	Matthias Knossalla	GER
22	Andi Fuchs	AUT
23	Thomas Naasz	NED
25	Nathan Miller	AUS
26	Marcus Woellner	GER
27	Moises Vidal Gil	ESP
31	Guillaume Lecallier	FRA
32	Christian Jais	GER
34	Michael Louys	BEL
35	Rafael Gomes	POR
38	Peter Kotland	CZE
39	Young Hwan Oh	KOR
40	Travis Hawkins	USA
41	Jens Frommhold	GER
44	Jaroslav Kovacic	SLO
45	Dirk Wijnalda	NED
46	Tuukka Miettinen	FIN

Female Race Participants

Bib	Name	Nation
51	Daniela Ryf	SUI
52	Heather Wurtele	CAN
53	Yvonne Van Vlerken	NED
54	Laura Siddall	GBR
55	Ruth Brennan Morrey	USA
56	Annah Watkinson	ZAF
57	Vanessa Pereira	POR
58	Martina Dogana	ITA
59	Corina Hengartner	SUI
60	Steph Corker	CAN