Archive | IM Cairns

Ironman Cairns 2019 – Analyzing Results

IMCairnsLogoCourse Conditions

With the low number of Pro athletes this year, it’s a bit tricky to say, but it seems that the conditions were quite slow this year. There were reports of lots of wind on the bike, and it seems that it also took some energy from fast runs.

Even so, there were a few new course records on the female side: Teresa Adam improved on her winning time from last year by roughly five minutes, and Kristin Liepold set a new marathon CR with a 2:54:04 (improving on Beth McKenzie’s 2:55:23 from last year).

Kona Qualifying

As IM Cairns is the Regional Championship for the Asia/Pacific region, there were six Kona Pro slots available. With 9 men and 10 women starting the race, the slots were split down the middle – 3 for the men and 3 for the women.

Unless one of the men decline their slot, the slots will go to the Top 3: Braden Currie, Tim Berkel and David Dellow. On the female side, there will be some rolldown as Sarah Crowley was already qualified. Two of these slots will fo to Kaisa Sali and Kristin Liepold. The last one is tricky and we’ll have to wait for the rolldown meeting: Winner Teresa Adam would normally be expected to go to Kona, but she declined her slot in New Zealand. If she declines again, the slot would roll down to Els Visser. (Update June 10th: Els Visser has posted on Instagram that she has received a Kona slot.)

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to exp. Prize Money
1 Braden Currie NZL 00:47:29 04:28:59 02:44:33 08:04:19 -13:52 US$ 30,000
2 Tim Van Berkel AUS 00:50:03 04:45:22 02:45:03 08:23:48 02:24 US$ 15,000
3 David Dellow AUS 00:49:38 04:45:45 02:53:11 08:32:11 08:02 US$ 8,000
4 Matt Burton AUS 00:52:54 04:32:38 03:10:01 08:39:24 09:50 US$ 6,500
5 Blake Kappler AUS 00:51:56 04:43:25 03:10:01 08:49:12 01:15 US$ 5,000
6 Jarrod Harvey AUS 00:52:33 04:51:43 03:23:56 09:11:35 04:29 US$ 3,500
7 Justin Wendemuth AUS 01:00:31 04:59:56 03:20:15 09:25:21 n/a US$ 2,500
8 Mike Phillips NZL 00:47:35 05:41:00 04:06:19 10:39:51 1:22:44 US$ 2,000
Luke Bell AUS 00:47:36 DNF

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to exp. Prize Money
1 Teresa Adam NZL 00:50:11 04:51:48 03:02:56 08:48:33 -23:43 US$ 30,000
2 Sarah Crowley AUS 00:51:19 04:50:48 03:08:03 08:53:37 -16:25 US$ 15,000
3 Kaisa Sali FIN 00:56:00 04:54:18 03:00:03 08:53:51 -10:51 US$ 8,000
4 Kristin Liepold GER 01:05:37 04:58:41 02:54:04 09:02:09 -40:08 US$ 6,500
5 Els Visser NED 00:59:27 04:59:25 03:12:44 09:14:29 -29:16 US$ 5,000
6 Kelsey Withrow USA 00:55:50 05:16:41 03:29:06 09:46:48 01:56 US$ 3,500
7 Jessica Mitchell AUS 01:05:40 05:18:35 03:34:26 10:04:03 -02:33 US$ 2,500
Sarah True USA 00:50:12 04:51:58 DNF
Melanie Burke NZL 01:05:39 05:05:38 DNF
Chloe Lane AUS 00:55:53 DNF

Ironman Cairns 2019 (June 9th) – Seedings

IMCairnsLogo

Previous Winners

Year Male Winner Time Female Winner Time
2011 Chris McCormack (AUS) 08:15:56 Rebekah Keat (AUS) 09:26:31
2012 David Dellow (AUS) 08:15:04 Carrie Lester (AUS) 09:21:00
2013 Luke McKenzie (AUS) 08:17:43 Liz Blatchford (AUS) 09:19:51
2014 Cameron Brown (NZL) 08:20:15 Liz Blatchford (AUS) 09:16:58
2015 Luke McKenzie (AUS) 08:18:01 Liz Blatchford (AUS) 09:11:49
2016 Tim Van Berkel (AUS) 08:15:03 Jodie Cunnama (GBR) 09:06:18
2017 Josh Amberger (AUS) 08:02:17 Sarah Crowley (AUS) 08:58:14
2018 Braden Currie (NZL) 07:54:58 Teresa Adam (NZL) 08:53:16

Last Race’s TOP 3

Here’s the link to last year’s full results and analysis.

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Braden Currie NZL 00:46:45 04:24:52 02:39:59 07:54:58
2 Javier Gomez ESP 00:46:41 04:25:08 02:41:02 07:56:38
3 Terenzo Bozzone NZL 00:48:43 04:22:30 02:45:59 08:00:06

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Teresa Adam NZL 00:50:41 04:50:12 03:08:44 08:53:16
2 Mirinda Carfrae AUS 01:01:05 04:50:30 03:03:19 08:59:17
3 Beth McKenzie USA 01:01:38 05:01:26 02:55:23 09:03:10

Course Records

Leg Gender Record Athlete Date
Total overall 07:54:58 Braden Currie 2018-06-10
Swim overall 00:43:48 Clayton Fettell 2011-06-05
Bike overall 04:15:13 Cameron Wurf 2017-06-11
Run overall 02:39:59 Braden Currie 2018-06-10
Total female 08:53:16 Teresa Adam 2018-06-10
Swim female 00:48:39 Lauren Brandon 2018-06-10
Bike female 04:50:00 Sarah Crowley 2017-06-11
Run female 02:55:23 Beth McKenzie 2018-06-10

Course Rating

The Course Rating for IM Cairns is 06:15.

Race Adjustments for IM Cairns

Year Adjustment Swim Adj. Bike Adj. Run Adj. # of Finishers Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating
2011 06:26 01:37 03:27 01:22 16 06:26 01:37 03:27 01:22
2012 06:48 -00:36 08:46 -01:21 22 06:37 00:30 06:07 00:00
2013 02:58 -01:20 09:25 -05:07 16 05:24 -00:06 07:13 -01:42
2014 04:15 -02:15 03:45 02:45 16 of 21 05:07 -00:39 06:21 -00:36
2015 06:13 01:46 04:22 00:05 16 of 19 05:20 -00:10 05:57 -00:27
2016 -02:45 -01:09 -01:39 00:03 28 of 36 03:59 -00:19 04:42 -00:23
2017 12:13 -01:40 12:00 01:53 29 of 40 05:10 -00:31 05:44 -00:03
2018 13:54 -00:14 12:52 01:17 26 of 33 06:15 -00:29 06:37 00:07

Kona slots and Prize Money

IM Cairns has 2m+2f +2u Pro Kona slot(s). It has a total prize purse of 150.000 US$, paying 10 deep. With the current number, an even split of Kona slots seems likely (i.e. 3 slots for the male Pros and 3 for females).

Male Race Participants

The strength of the field is 29% of a typical Kona field.

# Bib Name Nat Expected Rating ESwim EBike ET2 ERun Consistency Overall
1 1 Braden Currie NZL 08:06:06 08:18:14 00:47:35 04:28:01 05:20:36 02:45:30 52% +23% -24% (8) 12
2 2 Terenzo Bozzone (KQ) NZL 08:07:27 08:20:30 00:48:35 04:24:06 05:17:40 02:49:47 61% +14% -25% (19) 20
3 4 Mike Phillips (KQ) NZL 08:12:01 08:19:09 00:49:08 04:27:48 05:21:56 02:50:05 75% +10% -15% (7) 13
4 3 Tim Van Berkel AUS 08:15:24 08:26:28 00:48:39 04:30:31 05:24:10 02:51:14 87% +7% -6% (25) 35
5 5 Matt Burton AUS 08:15:41 08:34:43 00:52:48 04:22:09 05:19:57 02:55:44 15% +49% -36% (11) 59
6 6 David Dellow AUS 08:15:59 08:29:15 00:47:57 04:30:35 05:23:31 02:52:28 58% +1% -41% (19) (49)
7 9 Igor Amorelli BRA 08:26:51 08:37:25 00:48:02 04:28:40 05:21:43 03:05:08 58% +7% -35% (20) 71
8 8 Thiago Vinhal BRA 08:33:31 08:41:17 00:49:54 04:43:31 05:38:25 02:55:06 54% +25% -21% (17) 85
9 7 Luke Bell AUS 08:37:45 08:48:25 00:48:19 04:34:21 05:27:40 03:10:05 29% +5% -65% (35) (106)
10 10 Blake Kappler AUS 08:44:29 09:04:00 00:51:46 04:34:43 05:31:29 03:13:00 56% +0% -44% (2) (165)
11 12 Jarrod Harvey * AUS 09:03:31 09:23:44 00:55:16 04:51:41 05:51:57 03:11:34 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (219)
11 Alister Foot AUS n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
14 Justin Wendemuth AUS n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (1 IM Pro race) (n/a)

Note: Athletes with a ‘*’ are also registered for another race within 8 days.

Female Race Participants

The strength of the field is 16% of a typical Kona field.

# Bib Name Nat Expected Rating ESwim EBike ET2 ERun Consistency Overall
1 22 Sarah True USA 08:50:33 09:02:47 00:51:36 04:59:05 05:55:41 02:54:52 47% +53% -0% (2) (3)
2 23 Kaisa Sali FIN 08:59:46 09:04:45 00:57:05 04:54:31 05:56:37 03:03:09 100% +0% -0% (9) 4
3 21 Sarah Crowley (KQ) AUS 09:01:15 09:10:05 00:54:50 04:54:02 05:53:52 03:07:23 40% +60% -0% (8) 6
4 20 Teresa Adam NZL 09:04:40 09:12:19 00:50:45 04:58:03 05:53:48 03:10:52 100% +0% -0% (4) 8
5 26 Melanie Burke NZL 09:25:46 09:37:26 01:05:00 05:00:58 06:10:58 03:14:48 85% +14% -2% (17) 49
6 25 Kelsey Withrow USA 09:28:10 09:50:46 00:53:32 05:11:29 06:10:02 03:18:08 58% +42% -0% (3) 69
7 24 Kristin Liepold GER 09:30:21 09:42:20 01:04:12 05:17:10 06:26:22 03:03:59 83% +4% -13% (26) 57
8 32 Els Visser NED 09:32:29 09:49:39 00:57:53 04:58:51 06:01:44 03:30:45 76% +24% -0% (4) 67
9 27 Jessica Mitchell AUS 09:51:55 10:12:44 01:03:53 05:15:49 06:24:43 03:27:12 75% +13% -13% (10) 100
10 29 Chloe Lane AUS 09:58:30 10:20:45 00:58:57 05:17:07 06:21:05 03:37:25 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (111)
11 31 Kierra Sansome AUS 10:38:54 11:02:40 01:05:16 05:52:48 07:03:03 03:35:51 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (132)

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

  • Terenzo Bozzone: 39% (2-1)
  • Braden Currie: 36% (2-1)
  • Mike Phillips: 12% (7-1)
  • Tim Van Berkel: 5% (17-1)
  • David Dellow: 3% (30-1)
  • Matt Burton: 3% (31-1)

Female Race Participants

  • Sarah True: 35% (2-1)
  • Sarah Crowley: 30% (2-1)
  • Kaisa Sali: 19% (4-1)
  • Teresa Adam: 16% (5-1)

Ironman Cairns 2019 (June 9th) – Entry List

Updates:

  • May 4th: Added Els Visser (WPRO) and Igor Amorelli, Jarrod Harvey, Thiago Vinhal (MPRO)
  • May 8th: Linsey Corbin indicated she no longer plans to race, I have crossed her name off the list.

Kona Slots and Prize Money

IM Cairns has 2m+2f +2u Pro Kona slots. It has a total prize purse of 150.000 US$, paying 10 deep.

Male Race Participants

Name Nation
Igor Amorelli BRA
Terenzo Bozzone (KQ) NZL
Matt Burton AUS
Braden Currie NZL
Alister Foot AUS
Jarrod Harvey AUS
Blake Kappler AUS
Tim Van Berkel AUS
Thiago Vinhal BRA
Justin Wendemuth AUS

Female Race Participants

Name Nation
Linsey Corbin (KQ) USA
Sarah Crowley (KQ) AUS
Claire Davis AUS
Chloe Lane AUS
Kristin Liepold GER
Kierra Sansome AUS
Sarah True USA
Els Visser NED
Kelsey Withrow USA

Ironman Cairns 2018 – Analyzing Results

IMCairnsLogoCourse Conditions

The racing in Cairns was fast and furious across the board, and the conditions favored quick times especially on the bike (even though no new bike course records were set). An adjustment of 13:54 is the fastest I have seen on this course. 

There were a number of new course records: Winners Teresa Adam and Braden Currie set new overall records (improving the times set by Sarah Crowley and Josh Amberger just one year ago). Lauren Brandon claimed another swim course record, and there were also run course records by Beth McKenzie (first sub-3 run in Cairns) and Braden Currie (with the first sub-2:40). 

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to exp. Prize Money KPR Points
1 Braden Currie NZL 00:46:45 04:24:52 02:39:59 07:54:58 -22:33 US$ 30,000 4000
2 Javier Gomez ESP 00:46:41 04:25:08 02:41:02 07:56:38 n/a US$ 15,000 3400
3 Terenzo Bozzone NZL 00:48:43 04:22:30 02:45:59 08:00:06 -06:26 US$ 8,000 2890
4 Timothy O’Donnell USA 00:46:42 04:24:58 02:46:00 08:00:54 -08:50 US$ 6,500 2455
5 Denis Chevrot FRA 00:48:46 04:22:17 02:52:59 08:07:25 -14:09 US$ 5,000 2090
6 Kyle Buckingham ZAF 00:48:52 04:22:47 02:57:31 08:12:38 -02:57 US$ 3,500 1670
7 Tim Van Berkel AUS 00:48:47 04:25:38 02:57:28 08:15:11 07:04 US$ 2,500 1335
8 Tim Reed AUS 00:48:49 04:22:46 03:02:46 08:17:48 -00:12 US$ 2,000 1070
9 David Plese SLO 00:55:02 04:26:51 02:51:36 08:18:35 01:24 US$ 1,500 855
10 Callum Millward NZL 00:48:53 04:35:56 02:51:34 08:19:51 -01:42 US$ 1,000 685
11 Daniil Sapunov UKR 00:48:51 04:38:15 03:09:51 08:40:43 11:00   515
12 Balazs Csoke HUN 00:48:50 04:50:34 03:04:22 08:48:02 -07:38   385
13 Casey Munro AUS 00:46:48 04:49:20 03:07:59 08:48:18 14:44   290
14 Jason Hall NZL 00:53:04 05:01:34 02:58:14 08:57:04 n/a   215
15 David Mainwaring AUS 00:53:07 04:58:36 03:33:02 09:28:54 n/a   160
16 Lachlan Kerin AUS 00:48:42 04:42:20 04:08:58 09:45:32 41:23   120
17 Ryan Palazzi AUS 00:53:01 04:55:04 04:26:54 10:19:24 1:05:32   90
  Clayton Fettell AUS 00:46:42 04:34:33   DNF      
  Bryce McMaster NZL 00:55:59 05:50:57   DNF      
  Luke McKenzie AUS 00:48:46     DNF      
  Mike Phillips NZL 00:52:35     DNF      
  Blake Kappler AUS 00:54:39     DNF      
  Leigh Stabryla AUS 01:03:16     DNF      

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to exp. Prize Money KPR Points
1 Teresa Adam NZL 00:50:41 04:50:12 03:08:44 08:53:16 -08:25 US$ 30,000 4000
2 Mirinda Carfrae AUS 01:01:05 04:50:30 03:03:19 08:59:17 09:23 US$ 15,000 3400
3 Beth McKenzie USA 01:01:38 05:01:26 02:55:23 09:03:10 -10:54 US$ 8,000 2890
4 Gurutze Frades Larralde ESP 01:01:36 05:01:34 03:02:58 09:09:52 -15:41 US$ 6,500 2455
5 Melanie Burke NZL 01:01:39 04:56:49 03:10:06 09:12:31 -21:27 US$ 5,000 2090
6 Asa Lundstroem SWE 01:01:35 05:01:46 03:12:05 09:18:57 06:19 US$ 3,500 1670
7 Lauren Brandon USA 00:48:39 04:57:38 03:30:21 09:20:28 -01:39 US$ 2,500 1335
8 Amanda Wilson AUS 01:01:13 05:14:03 03:21:10 09:40:51 n/a US$ 2,000 1070
9 Sue Huse CAN 01:06:41 05:35:10 03:20:05 10:06:48 44:46 US$ 1,500 855
  Anja Beranek GER 00:55:51 05:01:12   DNF      

Kona Qualifying

Here’s the athletes that have significantly improved their chances for a July slot:

  • Automatic Qualifiers: Teresa Adam, Braden Currie, Mirinda Carfrae (Kona winner, now validated)
  • Safe: Gurutze Frades, Javier Gomez, Tim O’Donnell
  • Bubble (might be enough): Tim Reed, Callum Millard, Denis Chevrot (all of them already have four races in their total, so it’ll be hard for them to improve without doing another Ironman)
  • Close (more points needed): Melanie Burke, Asa Lundstroem

In addition to these, Terenzo Bozzone, Tim Van Berkel, and Kyle Buckingham already had secured their slots before Cairns.

Ironman Cairns 2018 (June 10th) – Seedings

Previous Winners

Year Male Winner Time Female Winner Time
2011 Chris McCormack (AUS) 08:15:56 Rebekah Keat (AUS) 09:26:31
2012 David Dellow (AUS) 08:15:04 Carrie Lester (AUS) 09:21:00
2013 Luke McKenzie (AUS) 08:17:43 Liz Blatchford (AUS) 09:19:51
2014 Cameron Brown (NZL) 08:20:15 Liz Blatchford (AUS) 09:16:58
2015 Luke McKenzie (AUS) 08:18:01 Liz Blatchford (AUS) 09:11:49
2016 Tim Van Berkel (AUS) 08:15:03 Jodie Cunnama (GBR) 09:06:18
2017 Josh Amberger (AUS) 08:02:17 Sarah Crowley (AUS) 08:58:14

Last Year’s TOP 3

Here’s the link to the full results and my analysis of IM Cairns 2017.

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Josh Amberger AUS 00:47:15 04:17:29 02:53:26 08:02:17
2 Joe Gambles AUS 00:50:02 04:25:19 02:44:30 08:04:03
3 Braden Currie NZL 00:49:46 04:26:12 02:47:56 08:07:46

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Sarah Crowley AUS 00:57:06 04:50:00 03:06:01 08:58:14
2 Sarah Piampiano USA 01:05:38 04:52:58 03:02:49 09:08:20
3 Kristin Moeller GER 01:05:22 05:00:50 03:03:29 09:14:08

Course Records

Leg Gender Record Athlete Date
Total overall 08:02:17 Josh Amberger 2017-06-11
Swim overall 00:43:48 Clayton Fettell 2011-06-05
Bike overall 04:15:13 Cameron Wurf 2017-06-11
Run overall 02:44:24 Tim Van Berkel 2013-06-01
Total female 08:58:14 Sarah Crowley 2017-06-11
Swim female 00:49:06 Jodie Cunnama 2016-06-12
Bike female 04:50:00 Sarah Crowley 2017-06-11
Run female 03:02:01 Linsey Corbin 2016-06-12

Course Rating

The Course Rating for IM Cairns is 05:10.

Race Adjustments for IM Cairns

Year Adjustment Swim Adj. Bike Adj. Run Adj. # of Finishers Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating
2011 06:26 01:41 03:54 01:36 16 06:26 01:41 03:54 01:36
2012 06:49 -00:44 08:11 -01:50 22 06:37 00:28 06:02 -00:07
2013 02:58 -01:34 08:26 -05:54 16 05:24 -00:12 06:50 -02:03
2014 04:15 -02:18 03:33 02:35 16 of 21 05:07 -00:44 06:01 -00:53
2015 06:14 01:44 04:18 00:00 16 of 19 05:20 -00:14 05:40 -00:43
2016 -02:45 -00:12 03:18 03:15 28 of 36 03:59 -00:14 05:17 -00:03
2017 12:14 -01:01 15:23 04:00 29 of 40 05:10 -00:21 06:43 00:32

KPR points and Prize Money

IM Cairns is a P-4000 race. It has a total prize purse of 150.000 US$, paying 10 deep.

Male Race Participants

The strength of the field is 35% of a typical Kona field.

# Bib Name Nat Expected Rating ESwim EBike ET2 ERun Consistency Overall
1 4 Terenzo Bozzone NZL 08:10:58 08:18:54 00:48:34 04:25:11 05:18:45 02:52:13 61% +27% -13% (16) 13
2 6 Tim Van Berkel AUS 08:14:05 08:20:52 00:48:20 04:31:19 05:24:39 02:49:26 84% +9% -7% (24) 16
3 5 Timothy O’Donnell USA 08:14:08 08:22:07 00:47:51 04:26:35 05:19:26 02:54:42 48% +31% -21% (16) 20
4 11 David Dellow AUS 08:17:00 08:29:15 00:47:58 04:31:25 05:24:23 02:52:37 58% +1% -41% (19) 41
5 15 Mike Phillips * NZL 08:17:15 08:27:21 00:50:01 04:27:44 05:22:45 02:54:30 66% +34% -0% (3) 33
6 3 Braden Currie NZL 08:17:59 08:34:51 00:48:16 04:32:53 05:26:10 02:51:49 27% +18% -55% (5) 63
7 2 Luke McKenzie AUS 08:20:08 08:28:06 00:48:33 04:26:20 05:19:54 03:00:14 61% +11% -27% (31) 36
8 10 Cameron Wurf AUS 08:22:23 08:30:41 00:50:10 04:17:58 05:13:08 03:09:15 53% +36% -10% (10) 50
9 8 Kyle Buckingham ZAF 08:23:17 08:28:16 00:50:00 04:34:08 05:29:08 02:54:09 71% +10% -19% (15) 37
10 19 Michael Fox AUS 08:24:40 08:42:16 00:48:12 04:35:06 05:28:19 02:56:21 66% +9% -25% (7) 84
11 9 Eneko Llanos ESP 08:26:04 08:29:59 00:49:18 04:29:00 05:23:18 03:02:46 87% +0% -13% (34) 45
12 7 Tim Reed AUS 08:26:19 08:30:49 00:49:07 04:33:32 05:27:40 02:58:39 54% +19% -27% (7) 52
13 22 David Plese SLO 08:27:48 08:30:01 00:53:30 04:35:01 05:33:30 02:54:18 79% +7% -13% (24) 46
14 14 Callum Millward NZL 08:28:58 08:34:25 00:49:45 04:36:14 05:30:59 02:57:59 77% +0% -23% (10) 62
15 17 Denis Chevrot FRA 08:30:17 08:39:15 00:47:52 04:38:29 05:31:22 02:58:55 65% +4% -32% (14) 78
16 28 Thiago Vinhal BRA 08:32:14 08:45:36 00:49:15 04:42:28 05:36:43 02:55:31 47% +47% -6% (14) 92
17 12 Daniil Sapunov * UKR 08:33:30 08:48:22 00:48:58 04:42:32 05:36:31 02:56:59 68% +7% -25% (10) 108
18 16 Clayton Fettell AUS 08:36:53 08:42:17 00:46:14 04:32:18 05:23:31 03:13:22 60% +10% -30% (12) 85
19 27 Casey Munro AUS 08:42:16 09:25:12 00:47:30 04:35:52 05:28:22 03:13:54 11% +0% -89% (8) (225)
20 18 Balazs Csoke HUN 08:59:51 09:18:39 00:48:31 04:53:50 05:47:21 03:12:30 30% +8% -63% (29) 205
21 24 Lachlan Kerin AUS 09:08:21 09:41:56 00:53:13 04:50:29 05:48:43 03:19:38 7% +23% -70% (5) (263)
22 21 Leigh Stabryla AUS 09:08:59 09:27:39 00:50:03 05:11:47 06:06:50 03:02:09 37% +0% -63% (5) 232
23 29 Ryan Palazzi AUS 09:24:22 09:58:53 00:50:48 04:49:21 05:45:09 03:39:13 26% +0% -74% (3) (278)
24 26 Bryce McMaster NZL 10:34:26 11:11:42 00:52:52 05:49:14 06:47:06 03:47:20 33% +0% -67% (2) (300)
25 30 Aleksander Kochetkov * LTU 10:49:11 11:11:58 01:09:44 05:37:00 06:51:44 03:57:27 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (300)
1 Javier Gomez ESP n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
20 Jason Hall NZL n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
23 Blake Kappler AUS n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
25 David Mainwaring AUS n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)

Note: Athletes with a ‘*’ are also registered for another race within 8 days.

Female Race Participants

The strength of the field is 26% of a typical Kona field.

Sarah Crowley is already training in Switzerland and will race IM Frankfurt to validate her Kona slot.

# Bib Name Nat Expected Rating ESwim EBike ET2 ERun Consistency Overall
1 32 Mirinda Carfrae AUS 08:57:08 09:01:36 00:56:09 05:00:53 06:02:02 02:55:06 59% +12% -29% (15) (2)
2 31 Sarah Crowley AUS 09:05:00 09:17:13 00:55:31 04:56:03 05:56:34 03:08:26 35% +65% -0% (6) 9
3 40 Teresa Adam NZL 09:12:51 09:32:15 00:50:49 05:04:05 05:59:54 03:12:57 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (36)
4 39 Beth McKenzie USA 09:16:21 09:28:03 01:00:34 05:09:53 06:15:27 03:00:54 38% +50% -11% (13) (32)
5 37 Anja Beranek GER 09:18:33 09:23:56 00:52:35 04:56:31 05:54:06 03:24:27 68% +4% -27% (12) 23
6 33 Asa Lundstroem SWE 09:21:44 09:27:02 01:01:51 05:01:08 06:07:59 03:13:45 98% +2% -0% (18) 29
7 34 Lauren Brandon USA 09:32:02 09:36:33 00:48:19 05:03:33 05:56:52 03:35:10 46% +0% -54% (6) 41
8 36 Gurutze Frades Larralde ESP 09:32:22 09:39:43 01:01:29 05:11:57 06:18:26 03:13:56 76% +14% -10% (11) 50
9 38 Sue Huse CAN 09:35:00 09:55:10 unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (1 IM Pro race) (79)
10 35 Melanie Burke NZL 09:36:57 09:48:12 01:04:44 05:08:33 06:18:16 03:18:41 86% +8% -6% (12) 63
11 41 Jessica Mitchell AUS 09:47:21 10:11:29 01:04:06 05:13:21 06:22:26 03:24:55 68% +32% -0% (6) 107
12 42 Alise Selsmark * AUS 09:50:44 10:11:27 00:54:29 05:25:04 06:24:33 03:26:11 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (107)
43 Amanda Wilson AUS n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)

Note: Athletes with a ‘*’ are also registered for another race within 8 days.

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

  • Terenzo Bozzone: 41% (1-1)
  • Tim Van Berkel: 17% (5-1)
  • Timothy O’Donnell: 14% (6-1)
  • Luke McKenzie: 8% (11-1)
  • Mike Phillips: 6% (15-1)
  • Braden Currie: 4% (22-1)
  • David Dellow: 4% (23-1)

In addition to these established athletes, there is Javier Gomez who will race in his first Ironman-distance race who has also to be considered for the win. (I have tried to come up with a data-based guess for a possible Cairns finish time for him in my post “Trying to Predict Ironman Times from 70.3 Ratings“. The result was a range of times between 8:00 and 8:30.)

Female Race Participants

  • Mirinda Carfrae: 40% (1-1)
  • Sarah Crowley: 39% (2-1)
  • Beth McKenzie: 13% (6-1)
  • Asa Lundstroem: 4% (27-1)
  • Anja Beranek: 2% (43-1)

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