Challenge Roth 2017 – Analyzing Results

(Updated July 11th with DNFs and a discussion of the Race Conditions.)

Course Conditions

The prevailing impression from Roth seems to be that the race was slower in past years, and that especially the new run course was harder than the old one, leading to slower times. However, this perception is not backed up by my data analysis, the adjustment for this year was about five minutes slower than last year, but all three legs were just a little bit slower.

In addition we have seen a number of fast times:

• Bart Aernouts posted his first sub-8 finish, and he ran the marathon almost exactly at the time I predicted (predicted 2:43:56, actual time 2:44:10).
• Even though Daniela’s race was hyped as “world record attempt” and she was well short of her time from last year, it is still a fantastic result considering her injury in the first half of the year. (After the awards she smiled that she still has a lot of upside for Kona.) Her 8:40 finish is the fastest finish of 2017 by quite a large margin (she also has the second fastest – 8:47 from South Africa), and her 4:37 bike split is the fastest of the year and the fifth fastest ever on the IM distance.
• Laura Siddall posted three PBs in Roth: Her fastest bike split, her fastest run split and her fastest overall time.
• Lisa Roberts showed that you can run fast on the new run course: Her 2:56 marathon lead to her first sub-9 finish and is the second fastest marathon of the year so far. (Kelly Williamson was just five seconds faster at IM Texas.)

Male Race Results

Bart Aernouts had another great race after IM Lanzarote and won the race on the back of the fastest marathon of the day:

Second place – as last year – went to Joe Skipper. He once again ran through the field but couldn’t quite match Bart’s pace:

Maurice Clavel was showing a courageous first long-distance race. After Nils Frommhold had to end his race after a crash on the bike course, he found himself in the lead, which he was able to hold until the later parts of the marathon. Still, he was happy with his third place finish and celebrated on the finish line:

Finishing fourth, Timo Bracht said good-bye to Roth with a hard earned finish:

Female Race Results

It was clear that Daniela would be next to impossible to beat unless her injury had left her severely unfit. She worked hard for a good time posting the fastest swim and bike split, but said she struggled a bit in the second half of the marathon. She still won with a fast time of 8:40 and with more than ten minutes to spare:

Laura Siddall improved on her fourth place finish from last year, but continued her string of second place finishes:

Third place was the surprise of the day: Lisa Roberts was a late entry and flew under the radar for the swim and bike, but she ended up with the only sub-3 marathon of the day, the fastest by nine minutes: