IM Coeur d’Alene 2011 Predictions (Main Post)

As per usual, you can find additional information on the participants in the detail post.

Previous Results

Coeur d’Alene, with a course rating of 4:12, is just a few minutes quicker than IM Hawaii (-0:24) and about as fast as IM Australia (4:24).

Last year’s race was won by Andy Potts (8:24) and Linsey Corbin (9:17).

Male Participants

For this year, the “German Cycling Machine” Mail Twelsiek seems to be ready for his next IM win:

Rank Name Nation Expected Time Rating Rank
1 Maik Twelsiek GER 08:31:03 08:40:42 28
2 Oliver Piggin NZL 08:59:36 09:09:48 152
3 Joe McDaniel USA 09:03:04 09:13:20 176
4 Raul Furtado BRA 09:09:36 09:19:59 232
5 Billy Edwards USA 09:20:30 09:31:05 299
6 Tim Snow USA 09:21:25 09:32:01 305
7 Cesar Valera VEN 09:31:05 09:41:52 379
8 Lewis Elliot USA 09:32:35 09:43:24 384
9 Brendan Halpin USA 09:33:45 09:44:35 392
10 Blake Becker USA 09:37:04 09:47:58 416
11 Kyle Pawlaczyk USA 09:39:01 09:49:57 428
12 Juan Carlos Ramirez USA 09:50:53 10:02:03 510
13 Heath Thurston USA 09:55:04 10:06:18 530
14 Adam Jensen USA 09:58:09 10:09:27 553
15 Arland Macasieb PHL 10:02:43 10:14:06 576
16 Scott Tremblay CAN n/a unrated n/a
17 Matt Burgess NZL n/a unrated n/a
18 Brian Hadley USA n/a unrated n/a

He has to be called the clear favorite and the only “almost rock star” in the race, but I’m sure that one of the other athletes will try to give him a good run for the money.

Update (6/22): Literally within minutes of me posting my predictions, Crowie announced on his blog that he will also race CdA. If he is properly recovered from his injury, that makes him the favorite for the race. One other question is if he’s racing just to finish and secure his Kona spot, or i he is going to go all out for another IM win. If he’s on form, I’m predicting an 8:12 for him (more in the updated details post).

Female Participants

On the female side, there is another clear favorite:

Rank Name Nation Expected Time Rating Rank
1 Julie Dibens USA 09:02:46 09:13:01 2
2 Kelly Williamson USA 09:28:04 09:38:48 23
3 Meredith Kessler USA 09:30:41 09:41:28 33
4 Mackenzie Madison USA 09:31:08 09:41:55 35
5 Caitlin Snow USA 09:34:52 09:45:44 42
6 Alison Fitch AUS 09:41:34 09:52:33 55
7 Desiree Ficker USA 10:10:49 10:22:21 141
8 Haley Cooper USA 10:10:56 10:22:28 142
9 Kelzie Beebe USA 10:15:59 10:27:37 162
10 Lianne Evans USA 10:16:07 10:27:45 162
11 Elly Franks AUS 10:20:08 10:31:51 170
12 Teri Albertazzi USA 10:28:03 10:39:55 188
13 Caroline Gregory USA n/a unrated n/a

“Dibs” just has one Ironman race so far (last year’s third place in IM Hawaii), and if she can even remotely repeat her Kona performance, she should win just as convincingly as Maik on the male side. Behind her we have 4 to 6 contenders for a podium spot – depending if you want to count Ali Fitch (with her comeback race after a prolonged injury) and Desiree Ficker (apparently trying to get back into Triathlon, but sometimes a hit and miss athlete).

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