IM Melbourne 2013 – Analyzing Results

RaceConditions

The first of the Regional Championships in Melbourne started a bit later than planned: Strong winds made the Ocean very choppy, and it was decided to delay the start and shorten the swim, officially to a 1.9k swim but apparently even shorter. (Probably more out of a concern for the slower age groupers than the Pros, as it would have been very tricky logistically to shorten the swim only for the Pros.) Some comments I heard indicated that the swim was still pretty “special” with very high waves.

The shortened swim makes it tricky to do a proper statistical analysis of the race. I have run my usual programs and present the results in this post:

• The swim produced an adjustment factor of 120%, i.e. you’d have to more than double the times to get close to an Ironman swim time. (This implies a swim course of about 1.7k).
• The bike and swim adjustments are still a bit faster than “the average course”, but pretty much in line with typical adjustments. As conditions were not that favorable (strong winds etc.), this either means that the bike was a bit short or that the athletes were able to bike quicker after the shorter swim. The run was severely short last year, this year the times indicate that the length was okay.

All in all, there are enough factors for me to decide not to include the Melbourne results in my ratings system. I’m showing them here nonetheless in my usual fashion, but one shouldn’t draw too many discrete conclusions from them.

Male Race Results

Almost all pre-race predictions (including mine) saw a close race between Marino and Crowie. On race day however, Eneko Llanos put together the best race, winning with the fastest run split of the day. Marino had the fastest bike split and ran a very respectable 2:51 marathon – good enough to hold off Crowie who ran out of steam running down Marino. Jordan Rapp was placed a good forth, but way back from the podium. Veteran Chris Legh and up-and-comer Per Bittner were next two – not too many had these athletes on their list.

Female Race Results

On the female side, Corinne Abraham stunned everyone, delivering the best bike and run splits. Clearly, she’d have been able to go sub-9 if the swim wasn’t shortened. The shorter swim played into the card of Yvonne Van Vlerken who managed to limit the losses on the swim and bike and was able to run down Caroline who paced third. I hope Caroline saves her best performance of her 2013 season for Kona! Veterans Natascha Badmann (who was in the lead for some time on the bike) and Gina Crawford (already her third long-distance race of the year!) were next.