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Ironman Arizona 2014 (Nov 16th) – Predictions

Arizona

Updates

Since initially publishing my predictions, there have been a few changes:

  • Eva Wutti announced she won’t be racing.
  • Matt Russell plans to just do the swim/bike (“most likely” were his words) and properly prepare for Cozumel.
  • After finishing 3rd in Florida, Ashley Clifford won’t be racing Arizona.
  • After winning Florida, Lionel Sanders also ended his season.

Previous Winners

Year Male Winner Time Female Winner Time
2005 Faris Al-Sultan (GER) 08:25:42 Kate Major (AUS) 09:44:02
2006 Michael Lovato (USA) 08:20:56 Michellie Jones (AUS) 09:12:53
2007 Rutger Beke (BEL) 08:21:14 Heather Gollnick (USA) 09:36:40
2008 Jozsef Major (HUN) 08:34:19 Erika Csomor (HUN) 09:14:49
2008 Andreas Raelert (GER) 08:14:16 Heleen Bij De Vaate (NED) 09:21:06
2009 Jordan Rapp (USA) 08:13:35 Samantha McGlone (CAN) 09:09:19
2010 Timo Bracht (GER) 08:07:16 Chrissie Wellington (GBR) 08:36:13
2011 Eneko Llanos (ESP) 07:59:38 Leanda Cave (GBR) 08:49:00
2012 Nils Frommhold (GER) 08:03:13 Linsey Corbin (USA) 09:01:41
2013 Victor Del Corral (ESP) 08:02:00 Julia Gajer (GER) 08:52:49

Last Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Victor Del Corral ESP 00:54:03 04:20:11 02:43:58 08:02:00
2 Jordan Rapp USA 00:52:45 04:14:44 02:54:54 08:06:13
3 Jens Petersen-Bach DEN 00:52:10 04:22:23 02:49:39 08:07:53

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Julia Gajer GER 00:53:24 04:51:46 03:02:02 08:52:49
2 Meredith Kessler USA 00:50:14 04:45:33 03:16:05 08:55:47
3 Michelle Vesterby DEN 00:53:30 04:42:57 03:16:43 08:57:24

Course Records

Leg Gender Record Athlete Date
Total overall 07:59:38 Eneko Llanos 2011-11-19
Swim overall 00:46:02 Kieran Doe 2008-11-23
Bike overall 04:14:44 Jordan Rapp 2013-11-17
Run overall 02:43:30 Victor Zyemtsev 2011-11-19
Total female 08:36:13 Chrissie Wellington 2010-11-21
Swim female 00:48:13 Leanda Cave 2008-11-23
Bike female 04:42:57 Michelle Vesterby 2013-11-17
Run female 02:52:56 Chrissie Wellington 2010-11-21

Course Rating

The Course Rating for IM Arizona is 14:09.

Race Adjustments for IM Arizona

Year Adjustment Swim Adj. Bike Adj. Run Adj. # of Athletes Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating
2006 05:53 -00:36 04:34 -00:24 29 05:53 -00:36 04:34 -00:24
2007 02:55 -00:35 01:13 01:35 26 04:24 -00:36 02:53 00:36
2008 04:58 00:04 04:21 -00:51 38 04:35 -00:22 03:22 00:07
2008 10:55 01:10 09:07 01:58 51 06:10 00:01 04:49 00:35
2009 18:02 -01:00 12:13 02:33 37 08:33 -00:12 06:17 00:58
2010 13:36 -00:22 09:06 01:47 46 09:23 -00:13 06:46 01:06
2011 23:10 -00:56 15:27 02:15 55 11:21 -00:19 08:00 01:16
2012 18:17 -01:58 16:28 02:29 50 12:13 -00:32 09:04 01:25
2013 29:35 -00:21 19:57 03:50 58 14:09 -00:31 10:16 01:41

KPR points and Prize Money

IM Arizona has 2000 KPR points for the winner. It has a total prize purse of 75k$.

Male Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Overall
1 6 Paul Matthews AUS 08:13:20 08:25:44 00:46:50 04:29:08 02:52:21 6
2 1 Jordan Rapp USA 08:18:13 08:31:51 00:52:46 04:23:29 02:56:59 15
3 3 Timothy O’Donnell USA 08:24:13 08:48:18 00:47:41 04:31:28 03:00:04 52
4 14 Clemente Alonso McKernan ESP 08:24:52 08:34:29 00:48:47 04:37:51 02:53:14 18
5 2 Victor Zyemtsev USA 08:27:43 08:41:57 00:51:05 04:39:37 02:52:01 35
6 33 Jens Petersen-Bach DEN 08:28:07 08:52:24 00:52:27 04:37:03 02:53:37 65
7 36 Horst Reichel GER 08:28:30 08:55:52 00:49:17 04:34:12 03:00:00 84
8 11 Pedro Gomes POR 08:29:57 08:53:26 00:50:25 04:33:53 03:00:39 71
9 4 Maik Twelsiek GER 08:30:11 08:41:16 00:50:37 04:25:52 03:08:42 33
10 49 Stephan Vuckovic GER 08:30:23 08:48:02 00:50:27 04:37:35 02:57:21 (52)
11 5 Kyle Buckingham ZAF 08:31:54 08:42:30 00:50:50 04:32:48 03:03:16 37
12 22 Marc Duelsen GER 08:32:57 09:02:49 00:53:20 04:33:50 03:00:47 (111)
13 24 Markus Fachbach GER 08:33:28 08:44:11 00:50:38 04:36:58 03:00:51 44
14 40 Matthew Russell USA 08:36:50 08:56:25 00:59:35 04:33:53 02:58:22 90
15 39 Michael Ruenz GER 08:36:53 08:58:00 00:54:12 04:42:51 02:54:50 (97)
16 13 Christophe Bastie FRA 08:42:35 08:59:24 00:54:20 04:34:22 03:08:53 100
17 12 Thomas Gerlach USA 08:44:49 09:04:58 00:54:34 04:34:30 03:10:45 119
18 10 Joe Umphenour USA 08:45:07 09:02:44 00:48:24 04:41:58 03:09:45 110
19 43 Jonathan Shearon USA 08:46:09 09:15:55 00:54:34 04:38:50 03:07:46 165
20 51 Nicholas Ward Munoz GBR 08:46:22 09:08:39 00:55:06 04:47:54 02:58:21 137
21 19 Mike Caiazzo USA 08:48:35 08:57:26 00:56:53 04:50:00 02:56:43 (96)
22 20 Scott Defilippis USA 08:50:50 09:15:55 00:56:47 04:50:56 02:58:07 165
23 41 Mike Schifferle SUI 08:53:17 09:11:40 01:01:20 04:42:08 03:04:49 149
24 28 Jared Milam USA 08:54:17 09:27:03 00:55:03 04:48:40 03:05:34 215
25 18 Chris Boudreaux USA 08:54:21 09:18:54 00:52:45 04:44:59 03:11:38 183
26 16 Blake Becker USA 08:58:00 09:36:47 00:53:17 04:47:38 03:12:04 255
27 25 Derek Garcia USA 08:58:21 09:17:21 00:54:18 04:40:24 03:18:39 175
28 56 Steven Zawaski USA 08:58:52 09:24:29 00:58:23 04:50:18 03:05:11 (207)
29 26 Chad Holderbaum USA 08:59:04 09:16:56 00:55:41 04:45:53 03:12:30 172
30 35 Ryan Rau USA 09:02:23 09:30:29 00:57:43 04:58:15 03:01:25 226
31 45 Anthony Toth CAN 09:03:03 09:34:19 00:58:08 04:51:14 03:08:41 242
32 17 Patrick Bless GER 09:03:45 09:17:51 00:55:51 04:56:07 03:06:48 (179)
33 46 Edo Van der Meer NED 09:04:31 09:38:45 00:48:39 04:41:09 03:29:42 (262)
34 52 Patrick Wheeler USA 09:06:25 09:29:48 00:57:40 04:56:29 03:07:17 225
35 23 Lewis Elliot USA 09:07:08 09:34:59 00:54:32 04:42:09 03:25:27 246
36 27 Jim Lamastra USA 09:11:36 09:41:22 00:53:09 04:46:07 03:27:20 273
37 44 Oliver Simon GBR 09:11:43 09:39:28 00:49:33 04:45:20 03:31:50 264
38 42 Patrick Schuster USA 09:13:25 09:37:02 01:04:15 04:47:05 03:17:05 257
39 53 Richard Whitfield GBR 09:13:42 09:40:02 00:58:23 04:51:25 03:18:54 (267)
40 48 Jesse Vondracek USA 09:16:36 09:43:47 00:56:25 04:59:23 03:15:47 286
41 47 Hendrik-Jan Verhaegen BEL 09:16:59 09:44:02 00:58:10 04:52:29 03:21:20 (288)
42 32 Devon Palmer USA 09:22:36 09:46:10 00:53:27 04:44:15 03:39:54 293
43 55 Dantley Young USA 09:34:19 10:18:47 01:03:59 04:58:44 03:26:36 (394)
44 50 Robbie Wade IRL 09:54:03 10:31:39 00:59:28 05:01:37 03:47:58 (430)
45 21 Vincent Depuiset FRA 09:55:40 10:18:01 01:10:45 05:11:12 03:28:43 (391)
46 54 Richard Wygand BRA 10:16:05 10:46:59 01:07:13 05:15:25 03:48:27 448
47 29 Jimi Minnema USA 10:20:19 10:53:02 01:04:42 05:20:41 03:49:56 (452)
48 31 Marek Nemcik SVK 11:25:22 12:11:24 01:12:05 05:39:27 04:28:51 468
7 Brent McMahon CAN n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
8 David Kahn USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
9 Lionel Sanders CAN n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
15 Randy Arriola USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
30 CW Moran USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
34 Botond Racz HUN n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
37 Eric Reid USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
38 Dominic Rohan-Gates GBR n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)

Female Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Overall
1 65 Meredith Kessler USA 09:09:19 09:34:13 00:50:09 04:57:30 03:16:40 22
2 68 Eva Wutti AUT 09:11:13 09:27:12 00:58:37 04:55:30 03:12:07 12
3 93 Amanda Stevens USA 09:21:16 09:41:59 00:50:01 05:01:28 03:24:47 35
4 67 Lisa Huetthaler AUT 09:21:26 09:46:25 00:56:39 04:57:10 03:22:37 (47)
5 79 Danielle Kehoe USA 09:25:51 10:00:39 01:03:51 05:04:14 03:12:45 77
6 84 Carrie Lester AUS 09:32:20 09:42:19 00:56:34 05:06:45 03:24:00 38
7 72 Kathleen Calkins USA 09:32:56 09:54:04 00:58:02 05:10:09 03:19:46 57
8 73 Ashley Clifford USA 09:35:15 09:47:47 00:55:29 05:23:21 03:11:25 48
9 66 Uli Bromme USA 09:35:33 09:59:36 01:03:14 05:05:56 03:21:24 74
10 70 Katy Blakemore USA 09:41:46 09:57:27 00:53:44 05:23:09 03:19:52 65
11 85 Mackenzie Madison USA 09:41:59 10:03:31 01:02:15 05:12:25 03:22:20 81
12 76 Malaika Homo USA 09:43:14 10:07:12 00:54:18 05:14:18 03:29:38 86
13 82 Carolin Lehrieder GER 09:44:51 10:18:47 00:58:32 05:24:23 03:16:55 (106)
14 74 Sarah Graves USA 09:51:50 10:19:58 01:12:08 05:16:10 03:18:32 (109)
15 75 Christine Hammond USA 09:53:42 10:11:39 00:55:41 05:18:48 03:34:13 95
16 91 Jessica Smith USA 09:56:40 10:25:34 00:55:05 05:17:00 03:39:36 120
17 92 Jacqui Gordon USA 10:02:50 10:18:52 01:01:32 05:17:53 03:38:26 106
18 88 Olesya Prystayko UKR 10:05:29 10:24:29 01:02:30 05:20:18 03:37:41 117
19 86 Katya Meyers USA 10:06:40 10:24:34 01:09:07 05:14:11 03:38:22 (118)
20 77 Christina Jackson USA 10:06:44 10:35:35 00:54:58 05:26:47 03:39:59 (140)
21 71 Kate Bruck USA 10:08:43 10:40:50 01:07:22 05:31:20 03:25:01 (146)
22 81 Angela Kuehnlein GER 10:27:08 10:56:57 01:04:15 05:24:43 03:53:10 (157)
23 83 Jennifer Lentzke CAN 10:40:35 11:02:13 01:14:17 05:33:38 03:47:40 (160)
24 87 Jenni Plane USA 12:36:30 13:04:37 01:05:17 06:29:51 04:56:21 (166)
69 Heather Jackson USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
78 Sarah Jarvis USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
80 Corrie Kristick USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
89 Maggie Rusch USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
90 Laura Siddall GBR n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

There are two main groups contending for the Arizona win: On the one hand you have athletes such as Jordan Rapp that have focused on this race, on the other hand there athletes that have raced in Kona and are looking for more points (e.g. Paul Matthews) or redemption for a sub-par race (e.g. Tim O’Donnell):

  • Paul Matthews: 26% (3-1)
  • Jordan Rapp: 20% (4-1)
  • Timothy O’Donnell: 19% (4-1)
  • Horst Reichel: 17% (5-1)
  • Clemente Alonso McKernan: 7% (14-1)
  • Victor Zyemtsev: 4% (25-1)
  • Jens Petersen-Bach: 3% (32-1)
  • Kyle Buckingham: 2% (49-1)
There are also some „new“ Ironman athletes: Lionel Sanders has just won in the no-swim Florida (not sure if he’ll back up he won’t be starting in Arizona), and Brent McMahon will race his first IM.

Female Race Participants

On the women’s side, Meredith Kessler is the clear favorite – hopefully her Kona troubles (DNF after vomiting on the bike) won’t occur again. Eva Wutti is a fast IM athlete but she’s either on (going sub-9) or off (DNF). (Eva announced she won’t be starting.) Still, Eva is was probably the only athlete that can challenge MBK for the win she’s been looking for in the last years. (Meredith has been 4-3-2-2 the last four years – she seems to be due for an Arizona win!)

  • Meredith Kessler: 56% (1-1)
  • Eva Wutti: 23% (3-1)
  • Amanda Stevens: 10% (9-1)
  • Danielle Kehoe: 5% (21-1)
  • Lisa Huetthaler: 2% (50-1)
  • Carrie Lester: 2% (64-1)

Heather Jackson is on the start list as well – she was aiming for Kona this year but had to postpone her IM debut (originally planned for CdA in the June) with injury problems. Hopefully she can have her debut IM in 2014 after all!

Related posts:

  1. Ironman Arizona 2016 (Nov 20th) – Predictions
  2. Ironman Arizona 2015 (Nov 15th) – Predictions
  3. Ironman Mont Tremblant 2015 (Aug 16th) – Predictions
  4. Ironman Texas 2015 (May 16th) – Predictions
  5. Ironman Florida 2014 (Nov 1st) – Predictions
  6. Ironman Sweden 2014 (August 16th) – Predictions
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