Ironman Copenhagen 2018 (Aug 19th) – Seedings

IM Copenhagen is one of the final races before the August cutoff for Kona Pro Qualifying. I have analyzed the situation for August Pro qualifying – who is currently in, who can still make it?

Previous Winners

Year	Male Winner	Time	Female Winner	Time
2010	Tim Van Berkel (AUS)	08:07:39	Rebekah Keat (AUS)	08:54:36
2011	Tim Van Berkel (AUS)	08:11:15	Rebekah Keat (AUS)	08:52:42
2012	Aaron Farlow (AUS)	08:20:09	Camilla Pedersen (DEN)	09:12:27
2013	Jens Petersen-Bach (DEN)	08:12:41	Eva Wutti (AUT)	08:37:36
2014	Henrik Hyldelund (DEN)	08:03:39	Daniela Ryf (SUI)	08:53:33
2015	Guilherme Manocchio (BRA)	08:14:56	Michelle Vesterby (DEN)	08:59:49
2016	Patrik Nilsson (SWE)	07:49:18
2017			Michelle Vesterby (DEN)	09:00:19

Last TOP 3

Here are the links to the full result analysis from 2017 (WPRO) and from 2016 which was the last men’s Pro race.

Female Race Results

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Time
1	Michelle Vesterby	DEN	00:53:02	04:48:02	03:15:05	09:00:19
2	Corinne Abraham	GBR	01:00:21	04:53:20	03:09:51	09:08:06
3	Sofie Goos	BEL	01:00:15	05:00:41	03:11:14	09:17:17

Male Race Results 2016

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Time
1	Patrik Nilsson	SWE	00:47:53	04:14:15	02:43:14	07:49:18
2	Will Clarke	GBR	00:47:46	04:24:33	02:43:16	07:59:31
3	Fabio Carvalho	BRA	00:47:51	04:14:50	02:59:35	08:07:10

Course Records

Leg	Gender	Record	Athlete	Date
Total	overall	07:49:18	Patrik Nilsson	2016-08-21
Swim	overall	00:45:22	Stephen Bayliss	2011-08-01
Bike	overall	04:13:57	Andreas Raelert	2016-08-21
Run	overall	02:38:58	Mads Vittrup	2011-08-01
Total	female	08:37:36	Eva Wutti	2013-08-18
Swim	female	00:48:29	Ann Lønnberg	2011-08-01
Bike	female	04:39:58	Eva Wutti	2013-08-18
Run	female	03:00:51	Eva Wutti	2013-08-18

Course Rating

The Course Rating for IM Copenhagen is 20:11.

Race Adjustments for IM Copenhagen

Year	Adjustment	Swim Adj.	Bike Adj.	Run Adj.	# of Finishers	Rating	Swim Rating	Bike Rating	Run Rating
2010	32:51	01:36	09:50	10:46	24	32:51	01:36	09:50	10:46
2011	27:13	03:10	12:54	06:04	28	30:02	02:23	11:22	08:25
2012	17:57	02:36	12:46	03:30	19	26:00	02:27	11:50	06:47
2013	27:32	01:24	17:07	05:30	30	26:23	02:12	13:09	06:28
2014	15:53	01:54	10:06	01:43	27 of 35	24:17	02:08	12:32	05:31
2015	14:04	01:27	15:23	01:47	26 of 30	22:35	02:01	13:01	04:53
2016	10:41	01:26	20:10	-00:48	21 of 28	20:53	01:56	14:02	04:05
2017	15:20	-00:30	15:59	04:48	7 of 8	20:11	01:38	14:17	04:10

KPR points and Prize Money

IM Copenhagen is an MPRO-only, P-2000 race. It has a total prize purse of 40.000 US$, paying 10 deep.

Male Race Participants

The strength of the field is 20% of a typical Kona field.

#	Bib	Name	Nat	Expected	Rating	ESwim	EBike	ET2	ERun	Consistency	Overall
1	22	Tim Don	GBR	07:54:16	08:18:42	00:46:12	04:14:21	05:05:32	02:48:44	43% +33% -24% (5)	(11)
2	2	Boris Stein	GER	08:02:54	08:20:56	00:51:31	04:16:20	05:12:51	02:50:03	80% +20% -0% (9)	16
3	1	Clemente Alonso McKernan	ESP	08:03:45	08:25:02	00:46:45	04:24:47	05:16:32	02:47:13	58% +7% -35% (16)	24
4	53	Jesper Svensson	SWE	08:04:12	08:35:40	00:45:23	04:20:37	05:11:00	02:53:12	n/a (1 IM Pro race)	(66)
5	57	Cameron Wurf	AUS	08:06:54	08:26:29	00:49:36	04:09:19	05:03:56	03:02:58	72% +22% -6% (14)	29
6	23	Marc Duelsen	GER	08:10:32	08:30:54	00:49:24	04:24:24	05:18:47	02:51:45	93% +0% -7% (13)	49
7	51	Stefan Schmid	GER	08:10:55	08:30:33	00:50:47	04:25:31	05:21:18	02:49:37	62% +17% -21% (17)	46
8	3	Cyril Viennot	FRA	08:10:58	08:28:47	00:49:25	04:26:51	05:21:17	02:49:41	59% +6% -35% (23)	41
9	7	Jens Petersen-Bach	DEN	08:13:31	08:35:33	00:49:01	04:31:38	05:25:40	02:47:51	56% +10% -34% (22)	64
10	11	Johann Ackermann	GER	08:13:58	08:43:43	00:46:50	04:20:33	05:12:24	03:01:34	64% +0% -36% (12)	86
11	32	Kristian Hoegenhaug	DEN	08:14:14	08:42:30	00:53:21	04:19:35	05:17:55	02:56:19	100% +0% -0% (2)	(83)
12	5	Giulio Molinari	ITA	08:15:08	08:32:04	00:47:08	04:23:25	05:15:33	02:59:35	100% +0% -0% (5)	57
13	34	Philipp Koutny	SUI	08:16:07	08:43:14	00:49:00	04:24:23	05:18:22	02:57:45	47% +14% -40% (11)	85
14	9	Thiago Vinhal	BRA	08:17:36	08:38:04	00:47:57	04:33:22	05:26:20	02:51:16	65% +30% -4% (16)	76
15	26	Markus Fachbach	GER	08:18:15	08:46:33	00:48:32	04:27:17	05:20:49	02:57:26	47% +0% -53% (23)	92
16	55	Andrej Vistica	CRO	08:18:39	08:37:32	00:53:05	04:30:02	05:28:08	02:50:31	93% +0% -7% (17)	75
17	12	Michael Patrick Alonso Mckernan	ESP	08:21:09	08:54:35	00:52:53	04:21:15	05:19:09	03:02:00	-0% +42% -58% (3)	(130)
18	41	Sebastian Neef	GER	08:21:26	09:01:32	00:50:23	04:21:50	05:17:14	03:04:12	15% +24% -61% (4)	(156)
19	6	Esben Hovgaard	DEN	08:21:41	08:54:45	00:51:09	04:29:26	05:25:35	02:56:06	44% +22% -35% (13)	131
20	27	Chris Fischer	DEN	08:22:41	08:46:02	00:52:54	04:30:31	05:28:26	02:54:15	69% +4% -26% (10)	90
21	13	Victor Arroyo Bugallo	ESP	08:23:15	08:55:58	00:54:35	04:34:19	05:33:54	02:49:21	n/a (1 IM Pro race)	(137)
22	8	Daniil Sapunov	UKR	08:24:57	08:48:36	00:47:11	04:35:46	05:27:57	02:57:00	76% +5% -18% (12)	101
23	30	Pedro Gomes	POR	08:27:19	08:50:32	00:50:42	04:37:25	05:33:06	02:54:13	50% +0% -50% (33)	110
24	48	Michael Ruenz	GER	08:27:29	08:55:59	00:54:46	04:36:10	05:35:56	02:51:33	61% +0% -39% (14)	137
25	43	Andreas Niedrig	GER	08:30:48	09:15:35	00:46:30	04:23:27	05:14:57	03:15:51	28% +19% -53% (15)	(196)
26	35	Markus Liebelt	GER	08:34:19	09:20:09	00:53:24	04:28:26	05:26:50	03:07:29	23% +0% -77% (3)	(206)
27	44	Sebastian Norberg	SWE	08:35:00	09:05:46	00:54:07	04:33:33	05:32:40	03:02:20	35% +39% -26% (3)	(167)
28	4	Nick Baldwin	SEY	08:35:34	09:01:29	00:51:51	04:34:30	05:31:22	03:04:12	65% +0% -35% (22)	155
29	38	Philipp Mock	GER	08:37:20	09:08:30	00:56:55	04:26:03	05:27:58	03:09:22	100% +0% -0% (2)	(176)
30	29	Jacob Frandsen	DEN	08:41:31	09:06:52	00:54:47	04:31:11	05:30:58	03:10:33	85% +0% -15% (5)	(168)
31	10	Jonas Oerarbaeck	SWE	08:44:36	09:24:17	00:58:40	04:41:30	05:45:10	02:59:26	39% +0% -61% (2)	(225)
32	50	Mike Schifferle	SUI	08:45:11	09:19:47	00:58:28	04:37:30	05:40:58	03:04:13	78% +6% -16% (74)	202
33	40	Urs Mueller	SUI	08:45:17	09:14:19	00:51:14	04:35:53	05:32:07	03:13:10	51% +13% -36% (9)	192
34	54	Sanne Swolfs	BEL	08:46:13	09:20:25	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	52% +0% -48% (2)	(207)
35	16	Morten Banke	DEN	08:46:32	09:20:46	00:57:10	04:42:49	05:44:59	03:01:33	n/a (1 IM Pro race)	(210)
36	39	Vincent Morizot	FRA	08:52:21	09:26:56	00:52:00	04:33:38	05:30:38	03:21:43	n/a (1 IM Pro race)	(229)
37	45	Stefan Overmars	NED	08:56:02	09:25:38	00:53:12	04:36:58	05:35:10	03:20:52	71% +0% -29% (4)	(226)
38	36	Michael Louys	BEL	08:57:43	09:42:37	01:00:44	04:42:07	05:47:51	03:09:52	33% +5% -62% (14)	(254)
39	28	Rasmus Fitzner	DEN	08:57:54	09:32:52	00:53:54	04:49:25	05:48:18	03:09:36	40% +0% -60% (3)	(239)
40	20	Bekim Christensen	DEN	08:58:44	09:31:46	01:00:02	04:37:41	05:42:42	03:16:02	20% +19% -61% (7)	235
41	56	Frederik Waer	BEL	09:00:06	09:35:12	01:05:54	04:47:05	05:58:00	03:02:06	n/a (1 IM Pro race)	(247)
42	25	Olivier Esser	BEL	09:03:35	09:27:53	00:52:45	04:48:53	05:46:38	03:16:57	75% +0% -25% (4)	231
43	19	Vinicius Canhedo	BRA	09:03:57	09:50:57	00:49:43	04:45:53	05:40:36	03:23:21	24% +0% -76% (4)	(264)
44	15	Mads Bang Jensen	DEN	09:04:48	09:46:33	00:54:07	04:49:40	05:48:48	03:16:00	45% +55% -0% (2)	(260)
45	37	Dennis Matzen	DEN	09:08:33	09:44:12	00:54:32	04:53:16	05:52:48	03:15:45	n/a (1 IM Pro race)	(258)
46	18	Anthony Cadario	FRA	09:11:31	09:47:21	00:54:47	04:57:37	05:57:24	03:14:07	n/a (1 IM Pro race)	(260)
47	24	Patrik Ericsson	SWE	09:14:40	09:50:42	00:48:19	04:32:09	05:25:28	03:49:12	62% +0% -38% (2)	(263)
48	14	Dirk Baelus	BEL	09:18:09	09:43:04	00:55:49	04:51:34	05:52:24	03:25:45	71% +0% -29% (5)	255
49	47	Lukas Polan	CZE	09:21:23	09:53:51	01:00:02	04:59:51	06:04:53	03:16:30	50% +13% -36% (17)	265
50	33	Aleksander Kochetkov	LTU	10:30:57	11:11:58	01:07:00	05:26:56	06:38:56	03:52:01	n/a (1 IM Pro race)	(290)
	42	Marek Nemcik	SVK	10:55:50	unrated	01:10:39	05:21:55	06:37:34	04:18:16	35% +20% -45% (47)	n/a
	17	Mihai Baractaru	ROM	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	n/a (1 IM Pro race)	(n/a)
	31	Kristian Hindkjaer	DEN	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	n/a (no IM Pro race)	(n/a)
	49	Imanol Sagarzazu	ESP	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	n/a (1 IM Pro race)	(n/a)
	52	Thomas Hansen	DEN	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	n/a (no IM Pro race)	(n/a)

There are quite a few athletes who have already secured their Kona slots and are unlikely to race (e.g. Philipp Koutny, Marc Duelsen, Thiago Vinhal). Cameron Wurf and Jens Petersen-Bach are also safe but it’s unclear if they want to race another Ironman before Kona.

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

• Clemente Alonso McKernan: 36% (2-1)
• Tim Don: 33% (2-1)
• Boris Stein: 12% (7-1)
• Cameron Wurf: 5% (21-1)
• Marc Duelsen: 4% (25-1)
• Stefan Schmid: 3% (33-1)
• Jens Petersen-Bach: 3% (38-1)
• Jesper Svensson: 2% (39-1)