Ironman Copenhagen 2018 (Aug 19th) – Seedings

IMCPHIM Copenhagen is one of the final races before the August cutoff for Kona Pro Qualifying. I have analyzed the situation for August Pro qualifying – who is currently in, who can still make it?

Previous Winners

Year Male Winner Time Female Winner Time
2010 Tim Van Berkel (AUS) 08:07:39 Rebekah Keat (AUS) 08:54:36
2011 Tim Van Berkel (AUS) 08:11:15 Rebekah Keat (AUS) 08:52:42
2012 Aaron Farlow (AUS) 08:20:09 Camilla Pedersen (DEN) 09:12:27
2013 Jens Petersen-Bach (DEN) 08:12:41 Eva Wutti (AUT) 08:37:36
2014 Henrik Hyldelund (DEN) 08:03:39 Daniela Ryf (SUI) 08:53:33
2015 Guilherme Manocchio (BRA) 08:14:56 Michelle Vesterby (DEN) 08:59:49
2016 Patrik Nilsson (SWE) 07:49:18
2017 Michelle Vesterby (DEN) 09:00:19

Last TOP 3

Here are the links to the full result analysis from 2017 (WPRO) and from 2016 which was the last men’s Pro race.

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Michelle Vesterby DEN 00:53:02 04:48:02 03:15:05 09:00:19
2 Corinne Abraham GBR 01:00:21 04:53:20 03:09:51 09:08:06
3 Sofie Goos BEL 01:00:15 05:00:41 03:11:14 09:17:17

Male Race Results 2016

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Patrik Nilsson SWE 00:47:53 04:14:15 02:43:14 07:49:18
2 Will Clarke GBR 00:47:46 04:24:33 02:43:16 07:59:31
3 Fabio Carvalho BRA 00:47:51 04:14:50 02:59:35 08:07:10

Course Records

Leg Gender Record Athlete Date
Total overall 07:49:18 Patrik Nilsson 2016-08-21
Swim overall 00:45:22 Stephen Bayliss 2011-08-01
Bike overall 04:13:57 Andreas Raelert 2016-08-21
Run overall 02:38:58 Mads Vittrup 2011-08-01
Total female 08:37:36 Eva Wutti 2013-08-18
Swim female 00:48:29 Ann Lønnberg 2011-08-01
Bike female 04:39:58 Eva Wutti 2013-08-18
Run female 03:00:51 Eva Wutti 2013-08-18

Course Rating

The Course Rating for IM Copenhagen is 20:11.

Race Adjustments for IM Copenhagen

Year Adjustment Swim Adj. Bike Adj. Run Adj. # of Finishers Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating
2010 32:51 01:36 09:50 10:46 24 32:51 01:36 09:50 10:46
2011 27:13 03:10 12:54 06:04 28 30:02 02:23 11:22 08:25
2012 17:57 02:36 12:46 03:30 19 26:00 02:27 11:50 06:47
2013 27:32 01:24 17:07 05:30 30 26:23 02:12 13:09 06:28
2014 15:53 01:54 10:06 01:43 27 of 35 24:17 02:08 12:32 05:31
2015 14:04 01:27 15:23 01:47 26 of 30 22:35 02:01 13:01 04:53
2016 10:41 01:26 20:10 -00:48 21 of 28 20:53 01:56 14:02 04:05
2017 15:20 -00:30 15:59 04:48 7 of 8 20:11 01:38 14:17 04:10

KPR points and Prize Money

IM Copenhagen is an MPRO-only, P-2000 race. It has a total prize purse of 40.000 US$, paying 10 deep.

Male Race Participants

The strength of the field is 20% of a typical Kona field.

# Bib Name Nat Expected Rating ESwim EBike ET2 ERun Consistency Overall
1 22 Tim Don GBR 07:54:16 08:18:42 00:46:12 04:14:21 05:05:32 02:48:44 43% +33% -24% (5) (11)
2 2 Boris Stein GER 08:02:54 08:20:56 00:51:31 04:16:20 05:12:51 02:50:03 80% +20% -0% (9) 16
3 1 Clemente Alonso McKernan ESP 08:03:45 08:25:02 00:46:45 04:24:47 05:16:32 02:47:13 58% +7% -35% (16) 24
4 53 Jesper Svensson SWE 08:04:12 08:35:40 00:45:23 04:20:37 05:11:00 02:53:12 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (66)
5 57 Cameron Wurf AUS 08:06:54 08:26:29 00:49:36 04:09:19 05:03:56 03:02:58 72% +22% -6% (14) 29
6 23 Marc Duelsen GER 08:10:32 08:30:54 00:49:24 04:24:24 05:18:47 02:51:45 93% +0% -7% (13) 49
7 51 Stefan Schmid GER 08:10:55 08:30:33 00:50:47 04:25:31 05:21:18 02:49:37 62% +17% -21% (17) 46
8 3 Cyril Viennot FRA 08:10:58 08:28:47 00:49:25 04:26:51 05:21:17 02:49:41 59% +6% -35% (23) 41
9 7 Jens Petersen-Bach DEN 08:13:31 08:35:33 00:49:01 04:31:38 05:25:40 02:47:51 56% +10% -34% (22) 64
10 11 Johann Ackermann GER 08:13:58 08:43:43 00:46:50 04:20:33 05:12:24 03:01:34 64% +0% -36% (12) 86
11 32 Kristian Hoegenhaug DEN 08:14:14 08:42:30 00:53:21 04:19:35 05:17:55 02:56:19 100% +0% -0% (2) (83)
12 5 Giulio Molinari ITA 08:15:08 08:32:04 00:47:08 04:23:25 05:15:33 02:59:35 100% +0% -0% (5) 57
13 34 Philipp Koutny SUI 08:16:07 08:43:14 00:49:00 04:24:23 05:18:22 02:57:45 47% +14% -40% (11) 85
14 9 Thiago Vinhal BRA 08:17:36 08:38:04 00:47:57 04:33:22 05:26:20 02:51:16 65% +30% -4% (16) 76
15 26 Markus Fachbach GER 08:18:15 08:46:33 00:48:32 04:27:17 05:20:49 02:57:26 47% +0% -53% (23) 92
16 55 Andrej Vistica CRO 08:18:39 08:37:32 00:53:05 04:30:02 05:28:08 02:50:31 93% +0% -7% (17) 75
17 12 Michael Patrick Alonso Mckernan ESP 08:21:09 08:54:35 00:52:53 04:21:15 05:19:09 03:02:00 -0% +42% -58% (3) (130)
18 41 Sebastian Neef GER 08:21:26 09:01:32 00:50:23 04:21:50 05:17:14 03:04:12 15% +24% -61% (4) (156)
19 6 Esben Hovgaard DEN 08:21:41 08:54:45 00:51:09 04:29:26 05:25:35 02:56:06 44% +22% -35% (13) 131
20 27 Chris Fischer DEN 08:22:41 08:46:02 00:52:54 04:30:31 05:28:26 02:54:15 69% +4% -26% (10) 90
21 13 Victor Arroyo Bugallo ESP 08:23:15 08:55:58 00:54:35 04:34:19 05:33:54 02:49:21 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (137)
22 8 Daniil Sapunov UKR 08:24:57 08:48:36 00:47:11 04:35:46 05:27:57 02:57:00 76% +5% -18% (12) 101
23 30 Pedro Gomes POR 08:27:19 08:50:32 00:50:42 04:37:25 05:33:06 02:54:13 50% +0% -50% (33) 110
24 48 Michael Ruenz GER 08:27:29 08:55:59 00:54:46 04:36:10 05:35:56 02:51:33 61% +0% -39% (14) 137
25 43 Andreas Niedrig GER 08:30:48 09:15:35 00:46:30 04:23:27 05:14:57 03:15:51 28% +19% -53% (15) (196)
26 35 Markus Liebelt GER 08:34:19 09:20:09 00:53:24 04:28:26 05:26:50 03:07:29 23% +0% -77% (3) (206)
27 44 Sebastian Norberg SWE 08:35:00 09:05:46 00:54:07 04:33:33 05:32:40 03:02:20 35% +39% -26% (3) (167)
28 4 Nick Baldwin SEY 08:35:34 09:01:29 00:51:51 04:34:30 05:31:22 03:04:12 65% +0% -35% (22) 155
29 38 Philipp Mock GER 08:37:20 09:08:30 00:56:55 04:26:03 05:27:58 03:09:22 100% +0% -0% (2) (176)
30 29 Jacob Frandsen DEN 08:41:31 09:06:52 00:54:47 04:31:11 05:30:58 03:10:33 85% +0% -15% (5) (168)
31 10 Jonas Oerarbaeck SWE 08:44:36 09:24:17 00:58:40 04:41:30 05:45:10 02:59:26 39% +0% -61% (2) (225)
32 50 Mike Schifferle SUI 08:45:11 09:19:47 00:58:28 04:37:30 05:40:58 03:04:13 78% +6% -16% (74) 202
33 40 Urs Mueller SUI 08:45:17 09:14:19 00:51:14 04:35:53 05:32:07 03:13:10 51% +13% -36% (9) 192
34 54 Sanne Swolfs BEL 08:46:13 09:20:25 unrated unrated unrated unrated 52% +0% -48% (2) (207)
35 16 Morten Banke DEN 08:46:32 09:20:46 00:57:10 04:42:49 05:44:59 03:01:33 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (210)
36 39 Vincent Morizot FRA 08:52:21 09:26:56 00:52:00 04:33:38 05:30:38 03:21:43 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (229)
37 45 Stefan Overmars NED 08:56:02 09:25:38 00:53:12 04:36:58 05:35:10 03:20:52 71% +0% -29% (4) (226)
38 36 Michael Louys BEL 08:57:43 09:42:37 01:00:44 04:42:07 05:47:51 03:09:52 33% +5% -62% (14) (254)
39 28 Rasmus Fitzner DEN 08:57:54 09:32:52 00:53:54 04:49:25 05:48:18 03:09:36 40% +0% -60% (3) (239)
40 20 Bekim Christensen DEN 08:58:44 09:31:46 01:00:02 04:37:41 05:42:42 03:16:02 20% +19% -61% (7) 235
41 56 Frederik Waer BEL 09:00:06 09:35:12 01:05:54 04:47:05 05:58:00 03:02:06 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (247)
42 25 Olivier Esser BEL 09:03:35 09:27:53 00:52:45 04:48:53 05:46:38 03:16:57 75% +0% -25% (4) 231
43 19 Vinicius Canhedo BRA 09:03:57 09:50:57 00:49:43 04:45:53 05:40:36 03:23:21 24% +0% -76% (4) (264)
44 15 Mads Bang Jensen DEN 09:04:48 09:46:33 00:54:07 04:49:40 05:48:48 03:16:00 45% +55% -0% (2) (260)
45 37 Dennis Matzen DEN 09:08:33 09:44:12 00:54:32 04:53:16 05:52:48 03:15:45 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (258)
46 18 Anthony Cadario FRA 09:11:31 09:47:21 00:54:47 04:57:37 05:57:24 03:14:07 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (260)
47 24 Patrik Ericsson SWE 09:14:40 09:50:42 00:48:19 04:32:09 05:25:28 03:49:12 62% +0% -38% (2) (263)
48 14 Dirk Baelus BEL 09:18:09 09:43:04 00:55:49 04:51:34 05:52:24 03:25:45 71% +0% -29% (5) 255
49 47 Lukas Polan CZE 09:21:23 09:53:51 01:00:02 04:59:51 06:04:53 03:16:30 50% +13% -36% (17) 265
50 33 Aleksander Kochetkov LTU 10:30:57 11:11:58 01:07:00 05:26:56 06:38:56 03:52:01 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (290)
42 Marek Nemcik SVK 10:55:50 unrated 01:10:39 05:21:55 06:37:34 04:18:16 35% +20% -45% (47) n/a
17 Mihai Baractaru ROM n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (1 IM Pro race) (n/a)
31 Kristian Hindkjaer DEN n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
49 Imanol Sagarzazu ESP n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (1 IM Pro race) (n/a)
52 Thomas Hansen DEN n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)

There are quite a few athletes who have already secured their Kona slots and are unlikely to race (e.g. Philipp Koutny, Marc Duelsen, Thiago Vinhal). Cameron Wurf and Jens Petersen-Bach are also safe but it’s unclear if they want to race another Ironman before Kona.

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

  • Clemente Alonso McKernan: 36% (2-1)
  • Tim Don: 33% (2-1)
  • Boris Stein: 12% (7-1)
  • Cameron Wurf: 5% (21-1)
  • Marc Duelsen: 4% (25-1)
  • Stefan Schmid: 3% (33-1)
  • Jens Petersen-Bach: 3% (38-1)
  • Jesper Svensson: 2% (39-1)

Trackbacks/Pingbacks

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