Ironman Hawaii 2016 – Race Updates

Note: This post will be updated as the race progresses with my synopsis of the current situation and some preliminary analysis.

Preliminary Women’s Race Analysis (Race Time 9:50)

After the initial result analysis this year’s Kona race was relatively fast, an adjustment of -2:42 is the fastest since 2013 and about 2 minutes quicker than typical for Kona, mainly because the swim was fast. (This may change a bit when I include all race results that haven’t yet been when running this analysis.)

We’ve seen two course records: Daniela Ryf posted a new overall record (beating Rinny’s time from 2013), and Patrick Lange posted a new run course record (beating the old Mark Allen time form 1989).

Preliminary Men’s Race Analysis (Race Time 8:45)

Updated at Race Time 10:00

Women in T2 (Race Time 6:30)

Here are the fastest female bike times:

1. Daniela Ryf (SUI) 4:52:26
2. Heather Jackson (USA) 5:00:31
3. Anja Beranek (GER) 5:00:42
4. Melissa Hauschildt (AUS) 5:05:21
5. Lucy Gossage (GBR) 5:06:01
6. Annabel Luxford (AUS) 5:06:46
7. Sarah Piampiano (USA) 5:07:29
8. Mary Beth Ellis (USA) 5:07:30
9. Meredith Kessler (USA) 5:07:45
10. Kaisa Lehtonen (FIN) 5:08:54

Men in T2 (Race Time 5:50)

With the first men in T2, here are the ten fastest bike times:

1. Boris Stein (GER) 4:23:04
2. Sebastian Kienle (GER) 4:23:55
3. Michael Weiss (AUT) 4:25:51
4. Lionel Sanders (CAN) 4:26:35
5. Luke McKenzie (AUS) 4:27:55
6. Ben Hoffman (USA) 4:28:06
7. Andi Boecherer (GER) 4:28:07
8. Jan Frodeno (GER) 4:29:00
9. Timothy O’Donnell (USA) 4:29:10
10. Eneko Llanos (ESP) 4:30:48

Women’s Turn at Hawi (Race Time 4:00)

While there is a big front group on the men’s side, it’s no surprise that in the women’s race Daniela Ryf has managed to build a lead of about three minutes. It’s a surprise that German Anja Beranek has been able to stay with her, but she needs a good position in T2 as Daniela can run 20 minutes into Anja.

The first chase group consisting of Mary Beth Ellis, Meredith Kessler, Jodie Swallow, Michelle Vesterby and Annabel Luxford sitting about three minutes back. None of them have been running really well, it’s unlikely that they can close the gap to Daniela on the marathon.

Rinny is now about 9:30 back from Daniela – it was four minutes after the swim, so Dani’s lead could grow to around 14 minutes in T2 if things continue to develop in the same way. Some strong athletes are now riding in front of Rinny: Van Vlerken and Hauschildt are 8:30 behind Daniela, both have only lost 2:30 to Daniela on the bike and are steadily improving their position in the field.

Men’s Turn at Hawi (Race Time 3:30)

By now most of the slower swimmers but strong bike riders have made a lot of the deficit they had after the swim. There is a large group of 12 athletes at the front that is about to get shattered on the way back into T2.

Among these are

• The Germans Jan Frodeno, Andi Böcherer, Sebastian Kienle and Boris Stein (especially Boris is in a much better position than last year when he finished 10th)
• The Americans Tim O’Donnell, Andy Potts and Ben Hoffmann
• Australians Luke McKenzie and Tim Berkel
• Spaniard Eneko Llanos and Brasilian Igor Amorelli

The Austrian Michael Weiss (back to IM racing after serving a two-year doping penalty) is probably more focused on chasing the bike course record – his run is usually not strong enough for a Top 10 finish.

It’s probably more interesting to follow strong runner such as David McNamee (2:26 back), Bart Aernouts (2:54) or Lionel Sanders who has closed down the gap from 8 minutes after the swim to 3:01 at the turn. Brent McMahon is more than 6 minutes back after serving a penalty, last year’s second Andi Raelert has also had a penalty.

Women’s Swim (Race Time: 2:20)

Athletes that had better than expected swims (and by how much):

• Laurel Wassner 2:43 faster
• Tine Holst 1:33
• Katja Konschak 1:27
• Sarah Piampiano 1:24
• Julia Gajer 1:11

Slower than expected were

• Kaisa Lehtonen 2:58 slower
• Linsey Corbin 2:52
• Jodie Swallow 2:46
• Daniela Saemmler 2:09
• Susie Cheetham 1:40
• Melissa Hauschildt 1:26
• Meredith Kessler 1:18

Men’s Swim (Race Time: 2:00)

The swim analysis has taken some time as the tracker has taken some time to update with the swim data. The times have been faster than in previous years: The swim rating of the Kona course is -4:30, the preliminary adjustment comes in at only -1:28, so roughly 3 minutes faster than what is normal for Kona.

Some athletes that had great swim results (faster than expected):

• Matt Russell 5:31 faster
• James Cunnama 2:17
• Rudi Wild 2:08
• Ben Hoffman 1:34
• Joe Skipper 1:29
• Boris Stein 1:25
• Jordan Rapp 1:08
• Andi Raelert 0:50

Slower than expected were

• Markus Thomschke 2:09 slower
• Will Clarke 1:34
• Per Bittner 1:25