Ironman Japan 2014 (Aug 24th) – Predictions

Previous Winners

Year	Male Winner	Time	Female Winner	Time
2013	Martin Jensen (DEN)	08:47:53	Shiao-yu Li (TWN)	10:12:42

Last Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Time
1	Martin Jensen	DEN	00:49:22	04:52:28	03:01:09	08:47:53
2	Petr Vabrousek	CZE	00:55:06	05:12:10	03:05:57	09:19:52
3	Tohara Kaito	JAP				09:27:30

Female Race Results

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Time
1	Shiao-yu Li	TWN	01:12:47	05:39:36	03:13:20	10:12:42
2	Michelle Wu	AUS	00:57:45	05:57:07	03:16:06	10:19:24
3	Emi Sakai	JPN	01:05:45	05:39:01	03:33:12	10:24:19

Course Records

Leg	Gender	Record	Athlete	Date
Total	overall	08:47:53	Martin Jensen	2013-08-31
Swim	overall	00:49:22	Martin Jensen	2013-08-31
Bike	overall	04:52:28	Martin Jensen	2013-08-31
Run	overall	03:01:09	Martin Jensen	2013-08-31
Total	female	10:12:42	Shiao-yu Li	2013-08-31
Swim	female	00:57:45	Michelle Wu	2013-08-31
Bike	female	05:39:01	Emi Sakai	2013-08-31
Run	female	03:13:20	Shiao-yu Li	2013-08-31

Course Rating

The Course Rating for IM Japan is – 16:00.

Race Adjustments for IM Japan

Year	Adjustment	Swim Adj.	Bike Adj.	Run Adj.	# of Athletes	Rating	Swim Rating	Bike Rating	Run Rating
2013	-16:00	-00:23	-19:40	-07:51	11	-16:00	-00:23	-19:40	-07:51

Male Race Participants

Rank	Name	Nation	Expected Time	Rating	Swim Rating	Bike Rating	Run Rating	Rank
1	Michael Rünz	GER	09:03:08	08:47:30	00:52:07	04:47:56	02:51:21	(66)
2	Byung Hoon Park	KOR	09:21:37	09:05:28	01:02:58	04:47:56	03:02:50	153
3	Brian Fuller	AUS	09:23:16	09:07:04	00:51:16	04:57:33	03:14:24	(165)
4	Jose Jeuland	FRA	09:27:54	09:11:34	00:52:57	05:03:18	03:05:53	184
5	Harry Wiltshire	GBR	09:33:47	09:17:17	00:47:45	04:55:22	03:30:48	197
6	Kuniaki Takahama	JPN	09:36:17	09:19:42	00:49:02	05:24:47	03:02:26	(207)
7	Tohara Kaito	JAP	09:38:23	09:21:45	unrated	unrated	unrated	(211)
8	Masayuki Matsumaru	JPN	09:41:46	09:25:02	00:55:23	05:02:25	03:21:00	(223)
9	Daiki Masuda	JPN	09:49:10	09:32:13	00:55:30	05:08:10	03:32:57	257
10	Tadashi Iida	JPN	09:52:43	09:35:40	00:54:29	05:12:50	03:06:05	268
11	Jon Woods	NZL	10:03:49	09:46:27	00:56:29	05:06:59	03:33:13	313
12	Timothy Beardall	AUS	10:19:50	10:02:00	01:00:42	04:55:35	04:00:06	(371)
13	Yu Shinozaki	JPN	11:02:44	10:43:40	00:55:47	05:09:27	04:23:54	(444)
	Cedric Lassonde	FRA	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)

Female Race Participants

Rank	Name	Nation	Expected Time	Rating	Swim Rating	Bike Rating	Run Rating	Rank
1	Jessica Fleming	AUS	10:22:21	10:04:27	01:01:23	05:08:37	03:25:39	(97)
2	Keiko Tanaka	JPN	10:26:10	10:08:09	00:55:50	05:28:50	03:32:19	100
3	Emi Sakai	JPN	10:40:08	10:21:43	01:05:32	05:23:06	03:40:45	131
4	Shiao-yu Li	TWN	10:49:56	10:31:14	01:08:55	05:34:33	03:26:15	(141)
5	Leslie Lamacchia	USA	11:01:03	10:42:02	01:07:24	05:41:35	03:44:06	152
6	Megumi Shigaki	JPN	11:02:55	10:43:51	00:59:27	05:37:47	03:59:57	153
	Mami Ishii	JPN	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)
	Hiromi Matsumaru	JPN	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)
	Yoriko Obayashi	JPN	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

• Harry Wiltshire: 38% (2-1)
• Michael Rünz: 19% (4-1)
• Jose Jeuland: 18% (5-1)
• Brian Fuller: 11% (8-1)
• Tohara Kaito: 5% (20-1)
• Daiki Masuda: 4% (23-1)
• Byung Hoon Park: 3% (29-1)

Female Race Participants

• Emi Sakai: 30% (2-1)
• Shiao-yu Li: 26% (3-1)
• Keiko Tanaka: 19% (4-1)
• Jessica Fleming: 14% (6-1)
• Megumi Shigaki: 8% (12-1)
• Leslie Lamacchia: 3% (30-1)

KPR Situation

The most interesting KPR fact is that IM Japan will be in this year’s qualifying cycle twice: It is both the first race (on August 31st, 2013) and also one of the last.

With regards to Kona qualifying, only Harry Wiltshire (2.800 points after Sweden) and last year’s female winner Shiao-yu Li (2.620) have has some theoretical chances to move into the Kona ranks.