Ironman Japan 2014 (Aug 24th) – Predictions

Previous Winners

Year Male Winner Time Female Winner Time
2013 Martin Jensen (DEN) 08:47:53 Shiao-yu Li (TWN) 10:12:42

Last Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Martin Jensen DEN 00:49:22 04:52:28 03:01:09 08:47:53
2 Petr Vabrousek CZE 00:55:06 05:12:10 03:05:57 09:19:52
3 Tohara Kaito JAP 09:27:30

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Shiao-yu Li TWN 01:12:47 05:39:36 03:13:20 10:12:42
2 Michelle Wu AUS 00:57:45 05:57:07 03:16:06 10:19:24
3 Emi Sakai JPN 01:05:45 05:39:01 03:33:12 10:24:19

Course Records

Leg Gender Record Athlete Date
Total overall 08:47:53 Martin Jensen 2013-08-31
Swim overall 00:49:22 Martin Jensen 2013-08-31
Bike overall 04:52:28 Martin Jensen 2013-08-31
Run overall 03:01:09 Martin Jensen 2013-08-31
Total female 10:12:42 Shiao-yu Li 2013-08-31
Swim female 00:57:45 Michelle Wu 2013-08-31
Bike female 05:39:01 Emi Sakai 2013-08-31
Run female 03:13:20 Shiao-yu Li 2013-08-31

Course Rating

The Course Rating for IM Japan is – 16:00.

Race Adjustments for IM Japan

Year Adjustment Swim Adj. Bike Adj. Run Adj. # of Athletes Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating
2013 -16:00 -00:23 -19:40 -07:51 11 -16:00 -00:23 -19:40 -07:51

Male Race Participants

Rank Name Nation Expected Time Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating Rank
1 Michael Rünz GER 09:03:08 08:47:30 00:52:07 04:47:56 02:51:21 (66)
2 Byung Hoon Park KOR 09:21:37 09:05:28 01:02:58 04:47:56 03:02:50 153
3 Brian Fuller AUS 09:23:16 09:07:04 00:51:16 04:57:33 03:14:24 (165)
4 Jose Jeuland FRA 09:27:54 09:11:34 00:52:57 05:03:18 03:05:53 184
5 Harry Wiltshire GBR 09:33:47 09:17:17 00:47:45 04:55:22 03:30:48 197
6 Kuniaki Takahama JPN 09:36:17 09:19:42 00:49:02 05:24:47 03:02:26 (207)
7 Tohara Kaito JAP 09:38:23 09:21:45 unrated unrated unrated (211)
8 Masayuki Matsumaru JPN 09:41:46 09:25:02 00:55:23 05:02:25 03:21:00 (223)
9 Daiki Masuda JPN 09:49:10 09:32:13 00:55:30 05:08:10 03:32:57 257
10 Tadashi Iida JPN 09:52:43 09:35:40 00:54:29 05:12:50 03:06:05 268
11 Jon Woods NZL 10:03:49 09:46:27 00:56:29 05:06:59 03:33:13 313
12 Timothy Beardall AUS 10:19:50 10:02:00 01:00:42 04:55:35 04:00:06 (371)
13 Yu Shinozaki JPN 11:02:44 10:43:40 00:55:47 05:09:27 04:23:54 (444)
Cedric Lassonde FRA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)

Female Race Participants

Rank Name Nation Expected Time Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating Rank
1 Jessica Fleming AUS 10:22:21 10:04:27 01:01:23 05:08:37 03:25:39 (97)
2 Keiko Tanaka JPN 10:26:10 10:08:09 00:55:50 05:28:50 03:32:19 100
3 Emi Sakai JPN 10:40:08 10:21:43 01:05:32 05:23:06 03:40:45 131
4 Shiao-yu Li TWN 10:49:56 10:31:14 01:08:55 05:34:33 03:26:15 (141)
5 Leslie Lamacchia USA 11:01:03 10:42:02 01:07:24 05:41:35 03:44:06 152
6 Megumi Shigaki JPN 11:02:55 10:43:51 00:59:27 05:37:47 03:59:57 153
Mami Ishii JPN n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
Hiromi Matsumaru JPN n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
Yoriko Obayashi JPN n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

  • Harry Wiltshire: 38% (2-1)
  • Michael Rünz: 19% (4-1)
  • Jose Jeuland: 18% (5-1)
  • Brian Fuller: 11% (8-1)
  • Tohara Kaito: 5% (20-1)
  • Daiki Masuda: 4% (23-1)
  • Byung Hoon Park: 3% (29-1)

Female Race Participants

  • Emi Sakai: 30% (2-1)
  • Shiao-yu Li: 26% (3-1)
  • Keiko Tanaka: 19% (4-1)
  • Jessica Fleming: 14% (6-1)
  • Megumi Shigaki: 8% (12-1)
  • Leslie Lamacchia: 3% (30-1)

KPR Situation

The most interesting KPR fact is that IM Japan will be in this year’s qualifying cycle twice: It is both the first race (on August 31st, 2013) and also one of the last.

With regards to Kona qualifying, only Harry Wiltshire (2.800 points after Sweden) and last year’s female winner Shiao-yu Li (2.620) have has some theoretical chances to move into the Kona ranks.

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