Ironman Louisville 2014 (Aug 24th) – Predictions

Previous Winners

Year Male Winner Time Female Winner Time
2007 Chris McDonald (AUS) 08:38:40 Heather Gollnick (USA) 09:23:25
2008 Maximilian Longree (GER) 08:34:00 Mariska Kramer-Postma (NED) 09:54:19
2009 Victor Zyemtsev (USA) 08:25:27 Nina Kraft (GER) 09:20:21
2010 Paul Ambrose (GBR) 08:29:59 Rebekah Keat (AUS) 09:33:15
2011 Chris McDonald (AUS) 08:27:36 Nina Kraft (GER) 09:38:14
2012 Patrick Evoe (USA) 08:42:44 Bree Wee (USA) 09:36:27
2013 Chris McDonald (AUS) 08:21:34 Kate Bevilaqua (AUS) 09:29:02

Last Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Chris McDonald AUS 00:48:56 04:29:14 02:57:56 08:21:34
2 Patrick Evoe USA 00:51:57 04:36:29 03:00:48 08:34:16
3 Thomas Gerlach USA 00:51:52 04:36:28 03:07:12 08:41:11

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Kate Bevilaqua AUS 00:49:03 05:13:32 03:20:29 09:29:02
2 Brooke Brown CAN 00:59:59 05:13:15 03:15:39 09:33:46
3 Whitney Garcia USA 00:55:00 05:08:09 03:24:30 09:34:21

Course Records

Leg Gender Record Athlete Date
Total overall 08:21:34 Chris McDonald 2013-08-25
Swim overall 00:44:54 John Flanagan 2009-08-28
Bike overall 04:29:14 Chris McDonald 2013-08-25
Run overall 02:43:48 Victor Zyemtsev 2009-08-28
Total female 09:20:21 Nina Kraft 2009-08-28
Swim female 00:48:44 Svetlana Blazevic 2013-08-25
Bike female 05:02:24 Lisbeth Kristensen 2009-08-28
Run female 03:05:07 Kim Loeffler 2009-08-28

Course Rating

The Course Rating for IM Louisville is 02:49.

Race Adjustments for IM Louisville

Year Adjustment Swim Adj. Bike Adj. Run Adj. # of Athletes Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating
2007 -01:56 00:23 00:20 -06:28 21 -01:56 00:23 00:20 -06:28
2008 -09:48 -02:23 01:54 -11:23 26 -05:52 -01:00 01:07 -08:55
2009 05:40 -01:46 02:02 04:00 33 -02:01 -01:15 01:25 -04:37
2010 -04:21 -01:05 03:17 -08:23 18 -02:36 -01:13 01:53 -05:33
2011 10:47 01:01 05:26 02:04 16 00:04 -00:46 02:36 -04:02
2012 04:48 -02:33 04:47 -03:55 12 00:52 -01:04 02:58 -04:01
2013 14:30 04:10 05:03 02:43 17 02:49 -00:19 03:16 -03:03

KPR points and Prize Money

IM Louisville has 2000 KPR points for the winner. It has a total prize purse of 25k$.

Male Race Participants

Rank Name Nation Expected Time Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating Rank
1 Chris McDonald AUS 08:42:29 08:45:13 00:52:44 04:42:32 03:03:09 59
2 Patrick Evoe USA 08:53:12 08:55:59 00:55:24 04:46:47 03:06:42 111
3 Jason Shortis AUS 08:55:31 08:58:19 00:54:33 04:53:41 03:02:36 119
4 Thomas Gerlach USA 08:58:22 09:01:11 00:54:17 04:45:18 03:14:51 136
5 Guy Crawford NZL 09:02:52 09:05:42 00:49:15 04:48:05 03:26:56 157
6 Clay Emge USA 09:06:35 09:09:27 00:54:22 04:58:59 03:01:48 (172)
7 Jared Milam USA 09:15:38 09:18:32 00:54:13 05:05:02 03:13:36 201
8 Blake Becker USA 09:27:38 09:30:36 00:53:14 05:01:05 03:32:44 249
9 Raymond Botelho USA 09:29:55 09:32:54 00:54:27 04:56:06 03:34:10 261
10 Patrick Schuster USA 09:37:08 09:40:09 01:04:44 05:01:47 03:30:24 283
11 Jim Lubinski USA 09:38:52 09:41:54 01:02:45 05:15:18 03:17:53 289
12 Mike Hermanson USA 09:48:20 09:51:25 00:54:49 05:09:37 03:31:14 (337)
13 Aubrey Aldy USA 09:50:38 09:53:43 01:05:30 05:23:25 03:11:07 345
14 Tom Wood USA 09:55:37 09:58:44 00:57:33 05:20:24 03:19:25 (366)
15 Peter Kotland USA 10:00:44 10:03:53 00:57:43 05:19:02 03:38:04 377
Adam Kosmicki n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
Brent Mcburney USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
Michael Starkey n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
Christopher Sweet n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)

Female Race Participants

Rank Name Nation Expected Time Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating Rank
1 Leanda Cave GBR 09:24:03 09:27:00 00:50:47 05:11:05 03:19:56 14
2 Nina Kraft GER 09:42:19 09:45:22 00:51:32 05:22:51 03:22:17 53
3 Jackie Arendt USA 09:51:05 09:54:10 00:55:16 05:27:52 03:22:05 77
4 Beth Shutt USA 09:52:58 09:56:04 00:59:52 05:24:08 03:23:54 81
5 Kate Bevilaqua AUS 10:05:35 10:08:45 00:57:15 05:28:02 03:38:10 103
6 Cindy Lewis CAN 10:14:27 10:17:40 01:03:07 05:33:33 03:32:52 124
7 Molly Roohi USA 10:16:30 10:19:43 01:06:16 05:33:46 03:26:58 129
8 Heather Leiggi USA 10:20:06 10:23:21 01:02:10 05:25:26 03:43:52 (133)
9 Rachel Jastrebsky USA 10:20:32 10:23:47 01:01:40 05:34:56 03:38:48 133
10 Caroline Gregory USA 10:26:22 10:29:39 00:57:10 05:47:25 03:38:44 139
11 Amy Javens USA 10:29:55 10:33:13 01:06:07 05:23:30 03:46:06 (142)
12 Alyssa Godesky USA 10:41:43 10:45:04 01:03:40 05:39:54 03:53:40 154
Shannon Florea n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
Katherine Bruck-Lagala USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

  • Chris McDonald: 55% (1-1)
  • Patrick Evoe: 21% (4-1)
  • Jason Shortis: 16% (5-1)
  • Thomas Gerlach: 4% (23-1)
  • Guy Crawford: 2% (55-1)
  • Clay Emge: 2% (57-1)

Female Race Participants

If Leanda Cave would be starting (which is very doubtful after her win in Sweden), she’d be the clear favorite (62%). Leaving her aside, the odds look quite different:

  • Kate Bevilaqua: 38% (2-1)
  • Jackie Arendt: 29% (2-1)
  • Nina Kraft: 14% (6-1)
  • Beth Shutt: 12% (7-1)

KPR Situation

On the men’s side, there is only Chris McDonald (currently at 3.023 points with 8 points potentially discarded from his total) with and Guy Crawford (at 1.435 points and 45 points to be discarded) that have a chance for an August slot. While Chris’s chances are quite realistic (in order to reach my projected cutoff of 4.400 points he would need a first or second, and maybe a third might be enough), Guy would need a win and a lot of help from other athletes. (After Mont Tremblant, Guy is no longer in a position to qualify.)

On the women’s side we have Leanda Cave (probably not starting after winning in Sweden), Jackie Arendt (at 3.750 with 180 points to be discarded) and Beth Shutt who has also entered IM Mont Tremblant (I will update after her result there after she scored enough points in Mont Tremblant, she no longer plans to start in Louisville). At this point (before Mont Tremblant), the projected cutoff for the women is at 5.600 points, so Jackie would need a win to be safe. After Mont Tremblant, Jackie would need a first or second place finish to secure a Kona slot.

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