Ironman Louisville 2014 (Aug 24th) – Predictions

Previous Winners

Year	Male Winner	Time	Female Winner	Time
2007	Chris McDonald (AUS)	08:38:40	Heather Gollnick (USA)	09:23:25
2008	Maximilian Longree (GER)	08:34:00	Mariska Kramer-Postma (NED)	09:54:19
2009	Victor Zyemtsev (USA)	08:25:27	Nina Kraft (GER)	09:20:21
2010	Paul Ambrose (GBR)	08:29:59	Rebekah Keat (AUS)	09:33:15
2011	Chris McDonald (AUS)	08:27:36	Nina Kraft (GER)	09:38:14
2012	Patrick Evoe (USA)	08:42:44	Bree Wee (USA)	09:36:27
2013	Chris McDonald (AUS)	08:21:34	Kate Bevilaqua (AUS)	09:29:02

Last Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Time
1	Chris McDonald	AUS	00:48:56	04:29:14	02:57:56	08:21:34
2	Patrick Evoe	USA	00:51:57	04:36:29	03:00:48	08:34:16
3	Thomas Gerlach	USA	00:51:52	04:36:28	03:07:12	08:41:11

Female Race Results

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Time
1	Kate Bevilaqua	AUS	00:49:03	05:13:32	03:20:29	09:29:02
2	Brooke Brown	CAN	00:59:59	05:13:15	03:15:39	09:33:46
3	Whitney Garcia	USA	00:55:00	05:08:09	03:24:30	09:34:21

Course Records

Leg	Gender	Record	Athlete	Date
Total	overall	08:21:34	Chris McDonald	2013-08-25
Swim	overall	00:44:54	John Flanagan	2009-08-28
Bike	overall	04:29:14	Chris McDonald	2013-08-25
Run	overall	02:43:48	Victor Zyemtsev	2009-08-28
Total	female	09:20:21	Nina Kraft	2009-08-28
Swim	female	00:48:44	Svetlana Blazevic	2013-08-25
Bike	female	05:02:24	Lisbeth Kristensen	2009-08-28
Run	female	03:05:07	Kim Loeffler	2009-08-28

Course Rating

The Course Rating for IM Louisville is 02:49.

Race Adjustments for IM Louisville

Year	Adjustment	Swim Adj.	Bike Adj.	Run Adj.	# of Athletes	Rating	Swim Rating	Bike Rating	Run Rating
2007	-01:56	00:23	00:20	-06:28	21	-01:56	00:23	00:20	-06:28
2008	-09:48	-02:23	01:54	-11:23	26	-05:52	-01:00	01:07	-08:55
2009	05:40	-01:46	02:02	04:00	33	-02:01	-01:15	01:25	-04:37
2010	-04:21	-01:05	03:17	-08:23	18	-02:36	-01:13	01:53	-05:33
2011	10:47	01:01	05:26	02:04	16	00:04	-00:46	02:36	-04:02
2012	04:48	-02:33	04:47	-03:55	12	00:52	-01:04	02:58	-04:01
2013	14:30	04:10	05:03	02:43	17	02:49	-00:19	03:16	-03:03

KPR points and Prize Money

IM Louisville has 2000 KPR points for the winner. It has a total prize purse of 25k$.

Male Race Participants

Rank	Name	Nation	Expected Time	Rating	Swim Rating	Bike Rating	Run Rating	Rank
1	Chris McDonald	AUS	08:42:29	08:45:13	00:52:44	04:42:32	03:03:09	59
2	Patrick Evoe	USA	08:53:12	08:55:59	00:55:24	04:46:47	03:06:42	111
3	Jason Shortis	AUS	08:55:31	08:58:19	00:54:33	04:53:41	03:02:36	119
4	Thomas Gerlach	USA	08:58:22	09:01:11	00:54:17	04:45:18	03:14:51	136
5	Guy Crawford	NZL	09:02:52	09:05:42	00:49:15	04:48:05	03:26:56	157
6	Clay Emge	USA	09:06:35	09:09:27	00:54:22	04:58:59	03:01:48	(172)
7	Jared Milam	USA	09:15:38	09:18:32	00:54:13	05:05:02	03:13:36	201
8	Blake Becker	USA	09:27:38	09:30:36	00:53:14	05:01:05	03:32:44	249
9	Raymond Botelho	USA	09:29:55	09:32:54	00:54:27	04:56:06	03:34:10	261
10	Patrick Schuster	USA	09:37:08	09:40:09	01:04:44	05:01:47	03:30:24	283
11	Jim Lubinski	USA	09:38:52	09:41:54	01:02:45	05:15:18	03:17:53	289
12	Mike Hermanson	USA	09:48:20	09:51:25	00:54:49	05:09:37	03:31:14	(337)
13	Aubrey Aldy	USA	09:50:38	09:53:43	01:05:30	05:23:25	03:11:07	345
14	Tom Wood	USA	09:55:37	09:58:44	00:57:33	05:20:24	03:19:25	(366)
15	Peter Kotland	USA	10:00:44	10:03:53	00:57:43	05:19:02	03:38:04	377
	Adam Kosmicki		n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)
	Brent Mcburney	USA	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)
	Michael Starkey		n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)
	Christopher Sweet		n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)

Female Race Participants

Rank	Name	Nation	Expected Time	Rating	Swim Rating	Bike Rating	Run Rating	Rank
1	Leanda Cave	GBR	09:24:03	09:27:00	00:50:47	05:11:05	03:19:56	14
2	Nina Kraft	GER	09:42:19	09:45:22	00:51:32	05:22:51	03:22:17	53
3	Jackie Arendt	USA	09:51:05	09:54:10	00:55:16	05:27:52	03:22:05	77
4	Beth Shutt	USA	09:52:58	09:56:04	00:59:52	05:24:08	03:23:54	81
5	Kate Bevilaqua	AUS	10:05:35	10:08:45	00:57:15	05:28:02	03:38:10	103
6	Cindy Lewis	CAN	10:14:27	10:17:40	01:03:07	05:33:33	03:32:52	124
7	Molly Roohi	USA	10:16:30	10:19:43	01:06:16	05:33:46	03:26:58	129
8	Heather Leiggi	USA	10:20:06	10:23:21	01:02:10	05:25:26	03:43:52	(133)
9	Rachel Jastrebsky	USA	10:20:32	10:23:47	01:01:40	05:34:56	03:38:48	133
10	Caroline Gregory	USA	10:26:22	10:29:39	00:57:10	05:47:25	03:38:44	139
11	Amy Javens	USA	10:29:55	10:33:13	01:06:07	05:23:30	03:46:06	(142)
12	Alyssa Godesky	USA	10:41:43	10:45:04	01:03:40	05:39:54	03:53:40	154
	Shannon Florea		n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)
	Katherine Bruck-Lagala	USA	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

• Chris McDonald: 55% (1-1)
• Patrick Evoe: 21% (4-1)
• Jason Shortis: 16% (5-1)
• Thomas Gerlach: 4% (23-1)
• Guy Crawford: 2% (55-1)
• Clay Emge: 2% (57-1)

Female Race Participants

If Leanda Cave would be starting (which is very doubtful after her win in Sweden), she’d be the clear favorite (62%). Leaving her aside, the odds look quite different:

• Kate Bevilaqua: 38% (2-1)
• Jackie Arendt: 29% (2-1)
• Nina Kraft: 14% (6-1)
• Beth Shutt: 12% (7-1)

KPR Situation

On the men’s side, there is only Chris McDonald (currently at 3.023 points with 8 points potentially discarded from his total) with and Guy Crawford (at 1.435 points and 45 points to be discarded) that have a chance for an August slot. While Chris’s chances are quite realistic (in order to reach my projected cutoff of 4.400 points he would need a first or second, and maybe a third might be enough), Guy would need a win and a lot of help from other athletes. (After Mont Tremblant, Guy is no longer in a position to qualify.)

On the women’s side we have Leanda Cave (probably not starting after winning in Sweden), Jackie Arendt (at 3.750 with 180 points to be discarded) and Beth Shutt who has also entered IM Mont Tremblant (I will update after her result there after she scored enough points in Mont Tremblant, she no longer plans to start in Louisville). At this point (before Mont Tremblant), the projected cutoff for the women is at 5.600 points, so Jackie would need a win to be safe. After Mont Tremblant, Jackie would need a first or second place finish to secure a Kona slot.