Ironman Melbourne 2015 (March 22nd) – Predictions

If you want to, you can submit your picks for IM Melbourne on IM-Predictions.com and see how you do against all our other players!

Previous Winners

Year	Male Winner	Time	Female Winner	Time
2012	Craig Alexander (AUS)	07:57:44	Caroline Steffen (SUI)	08:34:51
2013*	Eneko Llanos (ESP)	07:36:08	Corinne Abraham (GBR)	08:10:56
2014	Dirk Bockel (LUX)	08:01:02	Caroline Steffen (SUI)	08:57:57

*) shortened swim

Last Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Time
1	Dirk Bockel	LUX	00:45:35	04:23:05	02:48:35	08:01:02
2	Paul Matthews	AUS	00:45:34	04:29:02	02:44:09	08:02:14
3	David Dellow	AUS	00:45:44	04:21:35	02:51:41	08:03:07

Female Race Results

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Time
1	Caroline Steffen	SUI	00:52:03	04:56:38	03:04:44	08:57:57
2	Mary Beth Ellis	USA	00:50:00	04:59:36	03:08:48	09:02:15
3	Kim Schwabenbauer	USA	01:03:32	05:00:13	03:01:34	09:10:06

Course Records

Leg	Gender	Record	Athlete	Date
Total	overall	07:57:44	Craig Alexander	2012-03-24
Swim	overall	00:45:23	Benjamin Sanson	2014-03-23
Bike	overall	04:20:50	Michael Weiss	2014-03-23
Run	overall	02:38:46	Craig Alexander	2012-03-24
Total	female	08:34:51	Caroline Steffen	2012-03-24
Swim	female	00:50:00	Mary Beth Ellis	2014-03-23
Bike	female	04:35:29	Caroline Steffen	2012-03-24
Run	female	02:58:29	Mirinda Carfrae	2012-03-24

Course Rating

The Course Rating for IM Melbourne is 12:07.

Race Adjustments for IM Melbourne

Year	Adjustment	Swim Adj.	Bike Adj.	Run Adj.	# of Athletes	Rating	Swim Rating	Bike Rating	Run Rating
2012	09:11	-01:22	10:34	04:05	41	09:11	-01:22	10:34	04:05
2014	15:02	00:05	08:34	07:02	37	12:07	-00:38	09:34	05:33

KPR points and Prize Money

IM Melbourne has 4000 KPR points for the winner. It has a total prize purse of 150k$. As a Regional Championship the Melbourne winners will receive an Automatic Qualifier spot for Kona 2015. Melbourne will also be the first race that will have mandatory GPS tracking for the Professional athletes – hopefully this will help to provide good coverage for the race!

Male Race Participants

Rank	Bib	Name	Nation	Expected Time	Rating	Exp. Swim	Exp. Bike	Exp. Run	Overall
1	1	Nils Frommhold	GER	08:07:33	08:14:10	00:48:26	04:23:57	02:50:10	2
2	13	Christian Kramer	GER	08:17:58	08:40:33	00:47:57	04:33:14	02:51:46	48
3	2	Tim Van Berkel	AUS	08:20:36	08:33:20	00:50:07	04:35:39	02:49:50	24
4	4	Marko Albert	EST	08:21:57	08:34:23	00:47:31	04:34:59	02:54:26	28
5	5	Peter Robertson	AUS	08:22:37	08:43:18	00:47:15	04:31:40	02:58:42	(55)
6	3	Luke Bell	AUS	08:23:30	09:07:54	00:48:02	04:31:54	02:58:34	(156)
7	8	Jeff Symonds	CAN	08:26:06	08:38:28	00:51:59	04:41:10	02:47:56	37
8	9	Jens Petersen-Bach	DEN	08:26:50	08:46:49	00:52:32	04:39:02	02:50:17	67
9	6	Jan Raphael	GER	08:27:06	08:36:59	00:49:42	04:36:58	02:55:27	34
10	7	Per Bittner	GER	08:33:51	08:45:33	00:50:46	04:39:57	02:58:09	59
11	15	Casey Munro	AUS	08:34:42	09:05:09	00:46:36	04:29:49	03:13:17	(147)
12	19	Joshua Rix	AUS	08:42:46	09:08:29	00:50:38	04:37:33	03:09:35	164
13	10	Nick Baldwin	SEY	08:42:57	09:01:01	00:54:43	04:40:25	03:02:49	131
14	21	Jan Van Berkel	SUI	08:44:18	08:57:19	00:49:26	04:35:20	03:14:32	117
15	20	Todd Skipworth	AUS	08:48:11	09:16:41	00:47:04	04:34:44	03:21:23	(199)
16	11	Simon Billeau	FRA	08:48:49	09:08:05	00:53:21	04:35:25	03:15:04	(160)
17	18	Brendan Naef	CAN	09:22:00	09:42:30	00:58:41	05:02:31	03:15:48	306
	12	Brad Kahlefeldt	AUS	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)
	14	Lachlan Kern	AUS	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)
	16	Callum Millward	NZL	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)
	17	Dan McGuigan	AUS	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)

Female Race Participants

Rank	Bib	Name	Nation	Expected Time	Rating	Exp. Swim	Exp. Bike	Exp. Run	Overall
1	32	Mirinda Carfrae	AUS	08:49:02	08:56:08	00:55:32	04:58:08	02:50:22	1
2	31	Caroline Steffen	SUI	08:51:34	09:10:02	00:52:36	04:49:38	03:04:20	4
3	33	Yvonne Van Vlerken	NED	09:05:22	09:13:42	00:59:26	04:53:32	03:07:24	5
4	38	Mareen Hufe	GER	09:19:36	09:36:43	01:00:40	04:55:40	03:18:16	39
5	35	Asa Lundstroem	SWE	09:21:22	09:34:57	01:00:45	05:03:43	03:11:54	34
6	47	Emma Pooley	GBR	09:27:02	09:51:42	01:03:32	04:57:41	03:20:48	(67)
7	37	Beth Gerdes	USA	09:28:24	09:51:25	01:03:51	05:17:32	03:02:01	66
8	36	Bree Wee	USA	09:28:42	09:42:10	00:55:20	05:11:42	03:16:39	47
9	44	Stephanie Jones	USA	09:29:58	10:08:58	01:06:20	05:06:59	03:11:38	(109)
10	42	Ashley Clifford	USA	09:30:38	09:41:34	00:55:30	05:23:19	03:06:49	46
11	34	Melissa Hauschildt	AUS	09:32:37	09:57:31	00:55:36	05:11:58	03:20:03	(85)
12	40	Laura Bennett	USA	09:34:54	09:59:55	00:53:38	05:06:14	03:30:02	(90)
13	41	Kym Coogan	AUS	09:42:59	10:08:20	00:58:18	05:10:51	03:28:50	(107)
14	43	Kristy Hallett	AUS	10:02:16	10:31:21	01:04:31	05:15:04	03:37:41	154
15	48	Natasha Van der Merwe	USA	10:09:30	10:31:31	01:04:04	05:19:34	03:40:52	155
	39	Annabel Luxford	AUS	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)
	45	Marina Jurjevic	AUS	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)
	46	Jessica Mitchell	AUS	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

My favorites are two Germans, Nils Frommhold (6th in Kona 2014) and Christian Kramer (who went sub-8 in Austria 2014). Marko Albert is another strong European athlete, while the home country hopes ride on Tim Van Berkel (7th in Kona 2014), Luke Bell (hopefully fully recovered after an injury-ridden 2014 season) and Peter Robertson (who had to miss Kona with a broken collarbone):

• Nils Frommhold: 40% (2-1)
• Christian Kramer: 22% (4-1)
• Tim Van Berkel: 12% (8-1)
• Marko Albert: 10% (9-1)
• Luke Bell: 9% (10-1)

Female Race Participants

The female fields is about as large as the men’s field – and probably even deeper. My top seeded athlete is Mirinda Carfrae returning to race in her home country, but it remains to be seen in what shape she’ll race. (Her previous spring races were more focused on validating her Kona slot in a decent way.) Last year’s winners Caroline Steffen would like to repeat and show that she is still a strong Kona contender. Yvonne Van Vlerken still needs a solid performance to ensure a return to the big island.

• Mirinda Carfrae: 56% (1-1)
• Caroline Steffen: 33% (2-1)
• Yvonne Van Vlerken: 6% (15-1)

Behind these three top athletes, there is a strong group of athletes looking for a podium spot or a good number of KPR points: I’m sure that Mareen Hufe, Asa Lundstroem, Emma Pooley, Beth Gerdes, Bree Wee, Ashley Clifford, Mel Hauschildt, Laura Bennett and Annabel Luxford will make the women’s race interesting to follow.