Ironman New Zealand 2016 (March 5th) – Predictions

Update Feb 29th: There have been a few changes to the latest startlist: Per Bittner, Johan Borg and Mackenzie Madison won’t be racing.

Previous Winners

Year	Male Winner	Time	Female Winner	Time
2005	Cameron Brown (NZL)	08:20:15	Joanna Lawn (NZL)	09:30:14
2007	Cameron Brown (NZL)	08:26:33	Joanna Lawn (NZL)	09:20:02
2008	Cameron Brown (NZL)	08:24:49	Joanna Lawn (NZL)	09:16:00
2009	Cameron Brown (NZL)	08:18:05	Gina Crawford (NZL)	09:18:26
2010	Cameron Brown (NZL)	08:21:52	Joanna Lawn (NZL)	09:14:35
2011	Cameron Brown (NZL)	08:31:07	Samantha Warriner (NZL)	09:28:24
2013	Bevan Docherty (NZL)	08:15:35	Meredith Kessler (USA)	09:17:10
2014	Marko Albert (EST)	08:17:33	Meredith Kessler (USA)	09:08:46
2015	Cameron Brown (NZL)	08:22:13	Meredith Kessler (USA)	09:05:45

Last Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Time
1	Cameron Brown	NZL	00:50:02	04:37:39	02:49:08	08:22:13
2	Terenzo Bozzone	NZL	00:47:04	04:41:08	02:55:51	08:28:53
3	Dylan McNeice	NZL	00:44:26	04:53:27	02:54:24	08:38:05

Female Race Results

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Time
1	Meredith Kessler	USA	00:49:36	05:04:29	03:07:18	09:05:45
2	Gina Crawford	NZL	00:51:25	05:16:55	03:11:13	09:26:11
3	Melanie Burke	NZL	01:02:46	05:12:19	03:20:29	09:41:51

Course Records

Leg	Gender	Record	Athlete	Date
Total	overall	08:15:35	Bevan Docherty	2013-03-02
Swim	overall	00:44:26	Dylan McNeice	2015-03-07
Bike	overall	04:35:06	Bevan Docherty	2013-03-02
Run	overall	02:43:10	Cameron Brown	2009-03-07
Total	female	09:05:45	Meredith Kessler	2015-03-07
Swim	female	00:46:30	Monica Byrn	2005-05-03
Bike	female	05:01:17	Emi Shiono	2008-03-01
Run	female	03:01:06	Mirinda Carfrae	2011-03-05

Course Rating

The Course Rating for IM New Zealand is 05:09.

Race Adjustments for IM New Zealand

Year	Adjustment	Swim Adj.	Bike Adj.	Run Adj.	# of Finishers	Rating	Swim Rating	Bike Rating	Run Rating
2007	08:39	00:56	-00:21	06:30	24	08:39	00:56	-00:21	06:30
2008	09:27	01:37	02:46	04:33	36	09:03	01:16	01:13	05:31
2009	08:06	-00:01	03:19	03:03	38	08:44	00:51	01:55	04:42
2010	06:18	01:04	04:33	03:28	22	08:07	00:54	02:34	04:23
2011	-02:24	00:31	00:28	-00:58	24	06:01	00:49	02:09	03:19
2013	00:41	00:44	04:11	01:23	24	05:08	00:49	02:29	03:00
2014	03:02	01:04	00:00	02:29	31 of 41	04:50	00:51	02:08	02:55
2015	07:25	01:11	04:04	05:10	22 of 27	05:09	00:53	02:23	03:12

KPR points and Prize Money

IM New Zealand is a P-2000 race. It has a total prize purse of 75.000 US$.

Male Race Participants

Rank	Bib	Name	Nation	Expected Time	Rating	Exp. Swim	Exp. Bike	Exp. Run	Overall
1	1	Cameron Brown	NZL	08:24:03	08:35:34	00:49:51	04:39:23	02:49:50	33
2	9	Dougal Allan	NZL	08:26:33	08:35:30	00:58:20	04:27:54	02:55:19	32
3	4	Cyril Viennot	FRA	08:27:19	08:33:47	00:49:36	04:38:58	02:53:46	26
4	2	Terenzo Bozzone	NZL	08:29:35	08:34:44	00:46:52	04:41:53	02:55:50	29
5	7	Paul Matthews	AUS	08:30:01	08:38:31	00:46:04	04:40:03	02:58:54	45
6	21	Callum Millward	NZL	08:30:28	08:45:56	00:47:47	04:43:17	02:54:24	(69)
7	29	Joe Skipper	GBR	08:32:45	08:41:33	00:53:12	04:37:33	02:56:59	54
8	5	Matt Hanson	USA	08:33:21	08:43:16	00:53:17	04:46:54	02:48:09	59
9	18	Clayton Fettell	AUS	08:34:27	08:50:43	00:44:51	04:38:18	03:06:17	(86)
10	6	Per Bittner	GER	08:36:59	08:42:16	00:48:53	04:42:03	03:01:03	56
11	26	Matthew Russell	USA	08:38:32	08:47:17	00:56:25	04:41:41	02:55:26	74
12	3	Dylan McNeice	NZL	08:41:49	08:50:22	00:44:50	04:49:25	03:02:33	84
13	8	Alex Reithmeier	AUS	08:44:01	08:58:17	00:50:06	04:45:48	03:03:07	(115)
14	11	Simon Billeau	FRA	08:50:51	09:04:36	00:53:47	04:41:29	03:10:34	145
15	30	Swen Sundberg	GER	08:52:32	08:53:36	00:52:20	04:47:44	03:07:29	98
16	22	David Naesvik	SWE	08:53:21	09:02:17	00:54:36	04:44:53	03:08:51	132
17	31	Tohara Kaito	JPN	08:55:54	09:15:40	00:52:44	04:58:59	02:59:11	194
18	16	Simon Cochrane	NZL	08:56:16	09:08:48	00:50:38	04:55:54	03:04:43	162
19	17	Guy Crawford	NZL	08:57:05	09:17:44	00:48:23	04:43:03	03:20:39	206
20	27	Chris Sanson	NZL	08:59:02	09:12:38	00:56:00	04:54:56	03:03:06	180
21	20	Cedric Lassonde	FRA	09:05:01	09:11:20	00:55:03	04:52:39	03:12:19	174
22	12	Johan Borg	AUS	09:06:44	09:29:12	00:55:30	04:56:33	03:09:40	244
23	15	Sam Clark	NZL	09:11:20	09:27:50	00:56:40	05:00:24	03:09:15	(242)
24	19	Darren Jenkins	AUS	09:13:59	09:19:11	01:04:37	05:01:41	03:02:40	210
25	32	Brad Williams	USA	09:25:25	09:44:49	00:56:09	05:01:26	03:22:50	307
26	25	Matt Randall	NZL	09:50:23	10:07:55	00:58:41	04:58:33	03:48:09	(389)
27	23	Young Hwan Oh	KOR	10:39:31	11:05:14	01:01:59	05:24:08	04:08:24	(478)
28	14	Daniel Brown	AUS	10:50:23	11:30:56	01:03:42	05:36:34	04:05:07	(483)
	10	Antony Costes	FRA	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)
	13	Mark Bowstead	NZL	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)
	24	Michael Poole	AUS	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)

Female Race Participants

Rank	Bib	Name	Nation	Exp. Time	Rating	Exp. Swim	Exp. Bike	Exp. Run	Overall
1	40	Meredith Kessler	USA	09:06:48	09:19:19	00:48:32	05:03:07	03:10:09	14
2	41	Gina Crawford	NZL	09:16:48	09:35:11	00:51:15	05:11:16	03:09:17	37
3	47	Lucy Gossage	GBR	09:17:24	09:18:22	00:57:54	05:07:08	03:07:22	12
4	46	Carrie Lester	AUS	09:21:50	09:31:25	00:53:32	05:09:30	03:13:47	26
5	43	Amanda Stevens	USA	09:25:12	09:31:17	00:50:34	05:13:43	03:15:55	25
6	54	Candice Hammond	NZL	09:28:16	09:42:57	01:00:27	05:12:06	03:10:43	(49)
7	45	Mareen Hufe	GER	09:30:26	09:36:30	00:59:44	05:04:32	03:21:10	39
8	62	Laura Siddall	GBR	09:30:37	09:49:44	00:56:47	05:07:04	03:21:46	63
9	55	Jennie Hansen	USA	09:36:33	09:45:53	01:03:08	05:19:01	03:09:24	(52)
10	44	Michelle Bremer	NZL	09:38:56	09:47:26	00:57:11	05:15:41	03:21:04	57
11	57	Lisa Marangon	AUS	09:41:07	10:02:39	00:53:23	05:11:51	03:30:53	(90)
12	48	Mackenzie Madison	USA	09:41:10	09:49:27	00:57:50	05:18:16	03:20:04	61
13	42	Melanie Burke	NZL	09:42:07	09:49:31	01:04:39	05:13:55	03:18:33	62
14	49	Kate Bevilaqua	AUS	09:45:17	09:58:50	00:54:49	05:19:49	03:25:39	85
15	63	Keiko Tanaka	JPN	09:55:03	10:06:12	00:54:34	05:29:32	03:25:57	99
16	59	Jocelyn Mccauley	USA	09:55:34	10:16:37	00:58:50	05:30:45	03:21:00	(121)
17	51	Anna Cleaver	NZL	09:58:43	10:22:15	00:52:37	05:26:00	03:35:06	138
18	58	Caroline Martineau	CAN	10:09:37	10:23:21	01:02:17	05:31:17	03:31:03	143
19	56	Marina Jurjevic	AUS	10:09:57	10:21:59	01:05:30	05:21:37	03:37:50	(136)
20	53	Kristy Hallett	AUS	10:12:28	10:27:15	01:02:03	05:24:26	03:40:59	158
	50	Lauren Brandon	USA	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)
	52	Larisa Cochrane	NZL	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)
	60	Tracy Morrison	AUS	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)
	61	Vanessa Murray	NZL	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

If there is a favorite among the strong field, it has to be Cameron Brown who has won this race 11(!) times. It is hard to choose a second tier, based on the previous results my picks are Cyril Viennot (5th and 6th in Kona), Matt Hanson (winner of IM Texas but crashed in Kona) and Dougal Allen (recent winner of Challenge Wanaka). Paul Matthews has been struggling a bit in his last races and will be looking for a good start to 2016 racing. Even the athletes with comparatively small statistical odds are very good athletes: Matthew Russell (always with a strong run split), Joe Skipper and Dylan McNeice (looking for a good result after Wanaka), or Terenzo Bozzone (always about to break through over the IM distance).

• Cameron Brown: 21% (4-1)
• Cyril Viennot: 19% (4-1)
• Matt Hanson: 15% (5-1)
• Dougal Allan: 15% (6-1)
• Paul Matthews: 9% (11-1)
• Matthew Russell: 5% (17-1)
• Joe Skipper: 5% (21-1)
• Dylan McNeice: 3% (31-1)
• Terenzo Bozzone: 3% (33-1)

Female Race Participants

3-time defending Champion Meredith Kessler is the clear favorite on the female side, but with competition such as Carrie Lester (winner of Chattanooga), Gina Crawford (another athlete looking for redemption after a DNF in Wanaka) or Lucy Gossage (winner of IM UK and 10th in Kona) Meredith’s top spot is far from assured.

• Meredith Kessler: 59% (1-1)
• Carrie Lester: 14% (6-1)
• Gina Crawford: 10% (9-1)
• Lucy Gossage: 8% (11-1)

Lauren Brandon could be an interesting IM rookie, with her strong swim and bike she’ll be near the front at least until the early parts of the run.