Update (April 2nd): Jens Petersen-Bach is not starting. He has had some knee problems which are gone now. He will be starting the season in Texas. (Thanks to Michelle Vesterby for telling me about Jens’ withdrawal, and to Jens for replying to my question about it.)
Update (April 3rd): In addition to Jens, Dianne McEwan also won’t be starting.
Update (April 4th): The start list on Ironman.com has some additional names. The most interesting among these is Bertrand Billard, who is the current ITU long distance world champion. Because of bad weather, the race was shortened and a Duathlon, so it’ll be interesting to see his debut over the full IM distance. Also on the list are Dirk Bockel (who is definitely not starting), Marek Jaskolka and Thomas Darby.
With Ironman South Africa we have another early season Ironman race coming up. In addition to the „local“ triathletes, the race is interesting for a lot of European athletes: There is almost no time difference to South Africa, and it is a popular training destination.
Luke Dragstra and I are setting up pages for most Ironman races this season – use this page on IM-Predictions.com to submit your picks for South Africa. We have also released the second episode of our IM-Predictions podcast discussing the pro fields at IM Los Cabos and IM South Africa.
Previous Year’s TOP 3
Male Race Results
Ronnie Schildknecht may not be a household name, but he has won IM Switzerland a million times – and he also won South Africa 2013:
| Rank | Name | Nation | Swim | Bike | Run | Time |
| 1 | Ronnie Schildknecht | SUI | 00:52:48 | 04:22:01 | 02:53:03 | 08:11:24 |
| 2 | Cyril Viennot | FRA | 00:52:18 | 04:35:17 | 02:48:35 | 08:19:51 |
| 3 | Bas Diederen | NED | 00:49:27 | 04:38:15 | 02:48:48 | 08:20:09 |
Female Race Results
It looked as if Jodie Swallow could win her Ironman debut race, but when she struggled on the run she was run down by Jessie Donavan:
| Rank | Name | Nation | Swim | Bike | Run | Time |
| 1 | Jessie Donavan | USA | 01:07:11 | 04:50:27 | 03:09:11 | 09:10:58 |
| 2 | Jodie Swallow | GBR | 00:49:56 | 04:46:05 | 03:36:44 | 09:17:00 |
| 3 | Lucie Reed | CZE | 00:52:17 | 05:11:31 | 03:18:59 | 09:27:07 |
Course Records
| Leg | Gender | Record | Athlete | Date |
| Total | overall | 08:05:36 | Raynard Tissink | 2011-04-10 |
| Swim | overall | 00:45:22 | Anton Storm | 2009-04-05 |
| Bike | overall | 04:19:41 | Raynard Tissink | 2011-04-10 |
| Run | overall | 02:45:48 | Gerrit Schellens | 2007-03-18 |
| Total | female | 08:33:56 | Chrissie Wellington | 2011-04-10 |
| Swim | female | 00:47:40 | Lucie Reed | 2009-04-05 |
| Bike | female | 04:45:23 | Chrissie Wellington | 2011-04-10 |
| Run | female | 02:52:54 | Chrissie Wellington | 2011-04-10 |
Course Rating
The Course Rating for IM South Africa is 05:18. Conditions can be quite variable: In 2012 there was a lot of wind, leading to a choppy swim and slow bike times. If the conditions are good, South Africa is a pretty quick course.
This year, there are some significant course changes. Switching from a two-loop to a single loop will make it a bit easier for the top swimmers. But the biggest change is the bike course: It used to be relatively flat three laps (400m vertical), now it’s a two loops (with 1.600m vertical). (Thanks to Michelle Vesterby, Faris Al-Sultan and Vincent Nortier for the information.)
Race Adjustments for IM South Africa
| Year | Adjustment | Swim Adj. | Bike Adj. | Run Adj. | # of Athletes | Rating | Swim Rating | Bike Rating | Run Rating |
| 2006 | -01:15 | -05:30 | -06:48 | 00:06 | 10 | -01:15 | -05:30 | -06:48 | 00:06 |
| 2007 | -04:20 | -09:38 | 01:08 | -01:14 | 20 | -02:48 | -07:34 | -02:50 | -00:34 |
| 2008 | 17:01 | 00:25 | 10:18 | 01:58 | 29 | 03:49 | -04:54 | 01:33 | 00:17 |
| 2009 | 12:56 | 01:20 | 10:01 | -00:57 | 24 | 06:05 | -03:21 | 03:40 | -00:02 |
| 2010 | 09:06 | -00:56 | 07:36 | 01:46 | 28 | 06:42 | -02:52 | 04:27 | 00:20 |
| 2011 | 12:29 | -00:25 | 12:11 | 01:40 | 33 | 07:39 | -02:27 | 05:44 | 00:33 |
| 2012 | -14:14 | -09:04 | -09:56 | 02:49 | 23 | 04:32 | -03:24 | 03:30 | 00:53 |
| 2013 | 10:42 | -01:51 | 09:22 | 02:31 | 28 | 05:18 | -03:12 | 04:14 | 01:05 |
KPR points and Prize Money
IM South Africa has 2000 KPR points for the winner. It has a total prize purse of 75k$.
Male Race Participants
| Rank | Bib | Name | Nation | Expected Time | Rating | Swim Rating | Bike Rating | Run Rating | Rank |
| 1 | 4 | Faris Al-Sultan | GER | 08:20:21 | 08:25:19 | 00:47:35 | 04:34:11 | 02:58:51 | 7 |
| 2 | 13 | Nils Frommhold | GER | 08:21:50 | 08:26:49 | 00:46:36 | 04:37:13 | 02:50:15 | (11) |
| 3 | 1 | Ronnie Schildknecht | SUI | 08:28:47 | 08:33:50 | 00:51:40 | 04:38:29 | 02:58:14 | 22 |
| 4 | 2 | James Cunnama | ZAF | 08:28:58 | 08:34:01 | 00:50:03 | 04:42:00 | 02:58:07 | 23 |
| 6 | 5 | Miquel Blanchart | ESP | 08:32:43 | 08:37:48 | 00:48:39 | 04:48:18 | 02:54:18 | 34 |
| 7 | 3 | Bas Diederen | NED | 08:32:44 | 08:37:49 | 00:47:55 | 04:47:59 | 02:55:31 | 35 |
| 8 | 14 | Pedro Gomes | POR | 08:41:32 | 08:46:42 | 00:50:23 | 04:45:14 | 03:06:18 | 61 |
| 9 | 19 | Georg Potrebitsch | GER | 08:42:53 | 08:48:04 | 00:48:57 | 04:45:40 | 03:08:04 | 69 |
| 10 | 6 | Anton Blokhin | UKR | 08:47:28 | 08:52:42 | 00:48:56 | 04:52:07 | 03:04:20 | 92 |
| (11) | Marek Jaskolka | POL | 08:53:23 | 08:58:40 | 00:47:25 | 04:54:31 | 03:02:18 | (124) | |
| 11 | 16 | Andrey Lyatskiy | RUS | 08:56:28 | 09:01:47 | 00:48:28 | 04:57:01 | 03:10:53 | 139 |
| 12 | 12 | Karol Dzalaj | SVK | 09:02:22 | 09:07:45 | 00:53:19 | 04:50:22 | 03:18:14 | 157 |
| 13 | 9 | Michael Davidson | ZAF | 09:03:34 | 09:08:57 | 00:53:29 | 04:53:17 | 03:05:38 | (164) |
| 14 | 15 | Kent Horner | ZAF | 09:04:58 | 09:10:22 | 00:48:49 | 04:54:07 | 03:22:05 | 167 |
| 15 | 24 | Rafael Wyss | SUI | 09:05:33 | 09:10:58 | 00:59:35 | 04:55:43 | 03:07:15 | (171) |
| 16 | 22 | Edo Van der Meer | NED | 09:13:10 | 09:18:39 | 00:47:33 | 04:48:48 | 03:36:21 | (194) |
| 17 | 21 | Craig Twigg | GBR | 09:31:39 | 09:37:19 | 00:52:14 | 04:56:01 | 03:39:59 | 255 |
| 18 | 8 | Martin Cain | GBR | 09:41:25 | 09:47:11 | 00:58:39 | 05:13:11 | 03:29:05 | 293 |
| 19 | 11 | Luca De Paolis | ITA | 09:41:54 | 09:47:40 | 01:01:09 | 04:56:51 | 03:35:39 | (296) |
| 20 | 17 | Marek Nemcik | SVK | 11:49:59 | 11:57:01 | 01:11:37 | 05:57:01 | 04:38:36 | 420 |
| 10 | Gerhard De Bruin | ZAF | n/a | unrated | unrated | unrated | unrated | (n/a) | |
| 7 | Kyle Buckingham | ZAF | n/a | unrated | unrated | unrated | unrated | (n/a) | |
| 23 | Bradley Venter | ZAF | n/a | unrated | unrated | unrated | unrated | (n/a) | |
| 20 | Matt Trautman | ZAF | n/a | unrated | unrated | unrated | unrated | (n/a) | |
| Bertrand Billard | FRA | n/a | unrated | unrated | unrated | unrated | (n/a) | ||
| Thomas Darby | FIN | n/a | unrated | unrated | unrated | unrated | (n/a) |
Female Race Participants
| Rank | Bib | Name | Nation | Expected Time | Rating | Swim Rating | Bike Rating | Run Rating | Rank |
| 1 | 26 | Jodie Swallow | GBR | 09:19:30 | 09:25:03 | 00:48:41 | 05:02:52 | 03:27:21 | 9 |
| 2 | 41 | Michelle Vesterby | DEN | 09:22:23 | 09:27:58 | 00:52:05 | 05:09:20 | 03:21:19 | 13 |
| 3 | 30 | Natascha Badmann | SUI | 09:22:35 | 09:28:10 | 01:00:58 | 05:03:44 | 03:15:17 | 14 |
| 4 | 33 | Lucy Gossage | GBR | 09:23:14 | 09:28:49 | 00:57:19 | 05:08:33 | 03:11:17 | 15 |
| 5 | 31 | Erika Csomor | HUN | 09:25:50 | 09:31:27 | 00:57:47 | 05:15:27 | 03:12:02 | 20 |
| 6 | 25 | Jessie Donavan | USA | 09:30:15 | 09:35:54 | 01:07:18 | 05:07:18 | 03:14:41 | 27 |
| 7 | 28 | Simone Braendli | SUI | 09:35:27 | 09:41:09 | 00:51:50 | 05:16:41 | 03:27:05 | 39 |
| 8 | 27 | Lucie Reed | CZE | 09:35:30 | 09:41:12 | 00:50:31 | 05:17:43 | 03:27:40 | 40 |
| 9 | 38 | Edith Niederfriniger | ITA | 09:42:42 | 09:48:29 | 00:54:42 | 05:26:58 | 03:21:09 | (55) |
| 11 | 39 | Karina Ottosen | DEN | 09:54:56 | 10:00:50 | 00:58:48 | 05:28:31 | 03:27:04 | (85) |
| 12 | 37 | Katja Konschak | GER | 09:56:24 | 10:02:19 | 00:52:22 | 05:29:39 | 03:30:12 | 88 |
| 13 | 34 | Monique Grossrieder | SUI | 10:11:44 | 10:17:48 | 01:04:44 | 05:34:07 | 03:27:16 | 113 |
| 14 | 35 | Claire Horner | ZAF | 10:42:02 | 10:48:24 | 01:01:43 | 05:37:25 | 03:59:15 | 138 |
| 15 | 36 | Caroline Koll | ZAF | 10:55:03 | 11:01:33 | 00:59:09 | 05:58:36 | 03:59:37 | 143 |
| 40 | Linda Scattolin | ITA | n/a | unrated | unrated | unrated | unrated | (n/a) | |
| 32 | Astrid Ganzow | GER | n/a | unrated | unrated | unrated | unrated | (n/a) |
Winning Odds
Male Race Participants
Ronnie Schildknecht is back to defend his title from last year. His 2013 win gives him great odds. Nils Frommhold has won his IM debut in Arizona with a great time, but he was injured for most of the 2013 season. Faris Al-Sultan is racing as well, and even if his statistical odds are not that great, he is rarely beaten outside of Kona. James Cunnama will try to win his home race – after his great 2013 season he can focus his early season on South Africa. Another athlete of note is South African Kyle Buckingham, who’s doing his first Pro race after being the fastest age grouper in Kona 2013.
- Ronnie Schildknecht: 38% (2-1)
- Nils Frommhold: 18% (4-1)
- Faris Al-Sultan: 15% (6-1)
- James Cunnama: 13% (7-1)
- Bas Diederen: 7% (13-1)
- Jens Petersen-Bach: 4% (27-1)
- Miquel Blanchart: 2% (42-1)
Female Race Participants
Jessie Donavan is back to defend her title, but Jodie Swallow has gained more experience doing Ironman races and was steadily improving. Michelle Vesterby is another top athlete who excels in tight racing conditions. Lucy Gossage also had a great 2013 season (ending with wins at both IM UK and Wales), has taken some time to finish her doctorate and can focus on Ironman racing for a bit. Then you also have the veterans Erika Csomor (always a threat on the run) and Natascha Badmann (eager to race after missing IM Melbourne when she was hit by a car while training).
- Jessie Donavan: 20% (4-1)
- Jodie Swallow: 20% (4-1)
- Michelle Vesterby: 17% (5-1)
- Lucy Gossage: 14% (6-1)
- Erika Csomor: 11% (8-1)
- Natascha Badmann: 11% (8-1)
- Lucie Reed: 3% (34-1)