Ironman South Africa 2019 (April 7th) – Seedings

Updates:

• April 6th: The following athletes have not signed in for the Pro Meeting and are unlikely to race on Sunday: Peru Alfaro and Philipp Lamberty. Johann Ackerman, Marcus Liebelt, Urs Müller and Angela Naeth haven’t even been on the sign-in sheets, so they probably have withdrawn earlier. I have crossed off these athletes in the tables below.
  This would make it 30 male and 12 female Pros racing, resulting in four male slots and 2 female slots. 
• March 27th: Jan van Berkel announced that he has pinched a nerve and has to cancel his trip to South Africa. Speedy recovery!
• March 28th: Evert Scheltinga also won’t be racing.

Previous Winners

Year	Male Winner	Time	Female Winner	Time
2006	Gerrit Schellens (BEL)	08:36:06	Natascha Badmann (SUI)	09:46:38
2007	Gerrit Schellens (BEL)	08:33:05	Natascha Badmann (SUI)	09:22:01
2008	Stephen Bayliss (GBR)	08:18:23	Bella Bayliss (GBR)	09:27:48
2009	Marino Vanhoenacker (BEL)	08:17:32	Lucie Zelenkova (CZE)	09:16:32
2010	Raynard Tissink (ZAF)	08:23:28	Sonja Tajsich (GER)	09:16:55
2011	Raynard Tissink (ZAF)	08:05:36	Chrissie Wellington (GBR)	08:33:56
2012	Clemente Alonso McKernan (ESP)	08:34:45	Natascha Badmann (SUI)	09:47:10
2013	Ronnie Schildknecht (SUI)	08:11:24	Jessie Donavan (USA)	09:10:58
2014	Nils Frommhold (GER)	08:26:07	Simone Braendli (SUI)	09:31:54
2015	Frederik Van Lierde (BEL)	08:16:35	Jodie Cunnama (GBR)	09:26:56
2016	Ben Hoffman (USA)	08:12:37	Kaisa Sali (FIN)	09:06:50
2017	Ben Hoffman (USA)	07:58:40	Daniela Ryf (SUI)	08:47:02
2018	Kyle Buckingham (ZAF)	08:13:00	Lucy Charles-Barclay (GBR)	08:56:06

Last Race Results

Here’s the link to the analysis of last year’s results.

Male Top 3

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Time
1	Kyle Buckingham	ZAF	00:48:22	04:31:51	02:48:42	08:13:00
2	Josh Amberger	AUS	00:46:24	04:31:35	02:53:43	08:16:01
3	Maurice Clavel	GER	00:48:21	04:31:56	02:54:01	08:18:51

Female Top 3

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Time
1	Lucy Charles-Barclay	GBR	00:47:32	04:57:21	03:05:45	08:56:06
2	Susie Cheetham	GBR	00:55:48	05:01:54	03:00:47	09:02:58
3	Linsey Corbin	USA	00:55:48	05:08:14	02:58:16	09:07:10

Course Records

There have been a couple of course changes over the years, especially on the bike. Nonetheless, the following are the fastest times in South Africa:

Leg	Gender	Record	Athlete	Date
Total	overall	07:58:40	Ben Hoffman	2017-04-02
Swim	overall	00:45:22	Anton Storm	2009-04-05
Bike	overall	04:19:41	Raynard Tissink	2011-04-10
Run	overall	02:42:52	Ben Hoffman	2017-04-02
Total	female	08:33:56	Chrissie Wellington	2011-04-10
Swim	female	00:47:32	Lucy Charles-Barclay	2018-04-15
Bike	female	04:45:23	Chrissie Wellington	2011-04-10
Run	female	02:52:54	Chrissie Wellington	2011-04-10

Course Rating

The Course Rating for IM South Africa is 03:26.

Race Adjustments for IM South Africa

Year	Adjustment	Swim Adj.	Bike Adj.	Run Adj.	# of Finishers	Rating	Swim Rating	Bike Rating	Run Rating
2006	01:34	-03:56	02:49	02:41	28	01:34	-03:56	02:49	02:41
2007	01:16	-08:10	06:34	02:52	33	01:25	-06:03	04:41	02:47
2008	15:32	01:07	10:31	03:54	36	06:07	-03:41	06:38	03:10
2009	17:18	02:43	13:35	01:01	28	08:55	-02:05	08:23	02:37
2010	09:38	-00:12	08:23	01:27	34	09:03	-01:42	08:23	02:23
2011	15:30	00:07	13:51	01:33	36	10:08	-01:24	09:17	02:15
2012	-11:58	-08:14	-06:39	02:54	28	06:58	-02:23	07:01	02:21
2013	06:23	-01:59	07:37	00:45	36 of 44	06:54	-02:20	07:05	02:09
2014	-12:12	-01:03	-08:23	-02:47	29 of 40	04:46	-02:11	05:22	01:36
2015	-13:44	-00:59	-11:06	-01:39	49 of 61	02:55	-02:04	03:44	01:16
2016	03:31	-03:11	06:40	00:03	42 of 53	02:59	-02:10	04:00	01:10
2017	08:21	-00:16	07:41	00:57	43 of 63	03:25	-02:01	04:18	01:09
2018	03:34	-00:07	01:35	02:06	35 of 47	03:26	-01:52	04:06	01:13

Kona slots and Prize Money

IM South Africa has 2m+2f +2u Pro Kona slot(s). Looking at the bib list, it is like that the female Pros will get two Kona slots, while the males will get four. (Final assignment is based on the number of Pros starting the race.) It has a total prize purse of 150.000 US$, paying 10 deep.

Estimated Time Plan and Race Coverage

The following table shows the time plan for the race start and the estimated times for the first athlete in the transition zones or across the finish line. The estimates are based on the start time and my time estimates, these times can change based on how fast or slow the race ends up:

What	Est. Racetime	Est. Local Time
Male Pro Start		06:30
Female Pro Start		06:35
Age Group Start		06:45
First Male in T1	00:47:46	07:17
First Female in T1	00:49:08	07:24
First Male in T2	05:18:38	11:48
First Female in T2	05:47:29	12:22
Male Winner	08:06:50	14:36
Female Winner	08:53:29	15:28

Port Elizabeth is on South Africa Standard Time, 2 hours ahead of UTC. Here are the conversions to a few other time zones:

• +8 hours: Melbourne (AEST, DST ends on April 7th), race starts 2:30pm
• – 1 hour: United Kingdom (BST), race starts at 5:30am
• no difference: Central Europe (CEST), race starts at 6:30am
• – 6 hours: US East Coast (EDT), race starts at 12:30am
• – 9 hours: US West Coast (PDT), race starts at 9:30pm on Saturday

The race will be available on Ironman NOW through Facebook Watch.

Male Race Participants

The strength of the field is 74% of a typical Kona field.

#	Bib	Name	Nat	Expected	Rating	ESwim	EBike	ET2	ERun	Consistency	Overall
1	8	Nils Frommhold	GER	08:06:50	08:26:04	00:50:04	04:25:13	05:20:17	02:46:33	53% +0% -47% (11)	(32)
2	2	Ben Hoffman	USA	08:08:02	08:20:48	00:50:23	04:25:56	05:21:19	02:46:43	34% +37% -30% (21)	16
3	12	Patrik Nilsson	SWE	08:08:29	08:15:07	00:49:12	04:28:40	05:22:52	02:45:37	47% +20% -33% (11)	6
4	5	Bart Aernouts (AQ)	BEL	08:09:03	08:12:50	00:53:43	04:28:11	05:26:54	02:42:09	71% +24% -5% (14)	5
5	6	David McNamee (AQ)	GBR	08:10:22	08:15:28	00:49:40	04:30:54	05:25:34	02:44:48	41% +39% -21% (9)	7
6	10	James Cunnama	ZAF	08:15:26	08:23:38	00:50:32	04:27:03	05:22:34	02:52:52	53% +20% -27% (29)	27
7	15	Michael Weiss (KQ)	AUT	08:16:00	08:23:45	00:55:40	04:22:02	05:22:43	02:53:17	90% +2% -8% (24)	28
8	14	Andreas Dreitz	GER	08:16:41	08:21:34	00:51:22	04:22:16	05:18:38	02:58:03	70% +0% -30% (4)	20
9	11	Tim Van Berkel	AUS	08:17:52	08:21:27	00:49:57	04:34:01	05:28:58	02:48:54	89% +6% -5% (26)	19
10	7	Tim Don	GBR	08:19:19	08:28:54	00:49:48	04:24:50	05:19:37	02:59:42	19% +14% -67% (7)	43
11	1	Kyle Buckingham	ZAF	08:19:22	08:27:33	00:50:28	04:31:10	05:26:37	02:52:45	80% +7% -13% (17)	36
12	4	Maurice Clavel	GER	08:20:01	08:21:37	00:49:37	04:28:35	05:23:12	02:56:49	79% +0% -21% (4)	21
13	16	Jan van Berkel	SUI	08:20:01	08:25:40	00:50:27	04:33:41	05:29:08	02:50:53	69% +20% -10% (20)	30
14	3	Josh Amberger	AUS	08:21:31	08:35:16	00:47:46	04:28:28	05:21:14	03:00:17	60% +11% -29% (7)	62
15	19	Alessandro Degasperi	ITA	08:23:58	08:31:22	00:51:33	04:38:36	05:35:09	02:48:49	69% +0% -31% (16)	53
16	13	Eneko Llanos (KQ)	ESP	08:25:50	08:28:18	00:50:10	04:30:24	05:25:34	03:00:16	79% +0% -21% (36)	39
17	17	Giulio Molinari	ITA	08:26:20	08:30:43	00:50:05	04:31:51	05:26:57	02:59:23	84% +0% -16% (8)	50
18	35	Evert Scheltinga	NED	08:26:36	08:34:12	00:50:38	04:30:08	05:25:46	03:00:50	78% +0% -22% (8)	59
19	9	Matt Trautman (KQ)	ZAF	08:27:07	08:30:00	00:52:20	04:33:50	05:31:10	02:55:57	30% +34% -36% (8)	47
20	18	Johann Ackermann	GER	08:31:50	08:40:04	00:49:51	04:33:05	05:27:56	03:03:54	70% +0% -30% (13)	82
21	27	Samuel Huerzeler	SUI	08:33:45	08:42:11	00:54:28	04:39:08	05:38:37	02:55:08	79% +21% -0% (14)	89
22	33	Gustavo Rodriguez Iglesias	ESP	08:34:03	08:44:45	00:56:30	04:37:29	05:38:59	02:55:04	44% +34% -22% (6)	98
23	36	Markus Thomschke	GER	08:34:26	08:37:31	00:53:40	04:36:01	05:34:41	02:59:45	55% +17% -29% (21)	76
24	21	Peru Alfaro San Ildefonso	ESP	08:35:45	08:45:05	00:49:42	04:42:19	05:37:01	02:58:44	59% +0% -41% (5)	100
25	23	Reece Barclay	GBR	08:40:12	08:56:43	00:49:49	04:42:53	05:37:42	03:02:30	56% +0% -44% (2)	(141)
26	29	Markus Liebelt	GER	08:41:35	08:55:18	00:54:34	04:35:50	05:35:24	03:06:11	40% +0% -60% (5)	(137)
27	22	Victor Arroyo Bugallo	ESP	08:44:01	08:52:32	00:59:07	04:46:39	05:50:46	02:53:15	64% +0% -36% (3)	124
28	25	Karl-Johan Danielsson	SWE	08:51:18	09:05:28	00:53:16	04:38:20	05:36:36	03:14:42	41% +13% -46% (18)	168
29	31	Sebastian Norberg	SWE	08:54:10	09:03:58	00:56:28	04:42:50	05:44:18	03:09:52	41% +21% -38% (5)	165
30	30	Urs Mueller	SUI	09:00:55	09:10:52	00:54:36	04:47:54	05:47:30	03:13:25	66% +9% -25% (11)	182
31	24	Vinicius Canhedo	BRA	09:07:07	09:22:38	00:54:15	04:57:50	05:57:05	03:10:02	16% +31% -53% (5)	(216)
32	32	Jonas Oerarbaeck	SWE	09:10:06	09:22:51	01:02:00	04:57:27	06:04:28	03:05:38	63% +0% -37% (3)	(218)
33	20	Gerhard De Bruin	ZAF	09:14:04	09:26:31	00:56:09	04:52:50	05:53:59	03:20:05	84% +16% -0% (7)	224
34	26	Eneko Elosegui	ESP	09:26:26	09:34:16	01:02:41	04:55:21	06:03:02	03:23:24	82% +4% -14% (22)	239
35	28	Philippe Lamberty	LUX	10:12:58	10:34:01	00:55:36	04:54:34	05:55:09	04:17:49	n/a (1 IM Pro race)	(269)
	34	Paul Ruttmann	AUT	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	0% +0% -100% (2)	(n/a)
	37	Clinton Gravett	ZAF	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	n/a (no IM Pro race)	(n/a)

Female Race Participants

The strength of the field is 20% of a typical Kona field.

#	Bib	Name	Nat	Expected	Rating	ESwim	EBike	ET2	ERun	Consistency	Overall
1	40	Lucy Charles-Barclay (AQ)	GBR	08:53:29	09:00:49	00:49:08	04:53:21	05:47:29	03:06:00	48% +52% -0% (6)	2
2	52	Angela Naeth	CAN	09:14:45	09:25:27	01:01:16	04:53:37	05:59:53	03:14:52	3% +72% -25% (11)	33
3	43	Mareen Hufe (KQ)	GER	09:16:12	09:19:01	01:00:22	04:55:46	06:01:09	03:15:03	79% +17% -4% (29)	20
4	44	Anja Ippach	GER	09:20:21	09:29:34	00:53:53	04:58:20	05:57:13	03:23:08	52% +3% -45% (13)	(38)
5	42	Lauren Brandon	USA	09:27:21	09:38:17	00:49:48	05:04:24	05:59:12	03:28:09	39% +16% -46% (9)	49
6	41	Gurutze Frades Larralde	ESP	09:28:57	09:34:42	01:02:42	05:11:47	06:19:29	03:09:28	84% +9% -7% (13)	43
7	45	Annah Watkinson	ZAF	09:37:09	09:49:41	01:01:08	05:15:27	06:21:34	03:15:35	54% +0% -46% (8)	68
8	46	Federica De Nicola	ITA	09:42:28	09:50:08	01:02:27	05:09:19	06:16:46	03:25:42	78% +0% -22% (4)	71
9	49	Ashley Paulson	USA	09:58:05	10:08:27	01:15:11	05:28:13	06:48:23	03:09:42	66% +12% -23% (10)	94
10	48	Angela Lindberg	GER	10:19:05	10:42:54	01:04:56	05:37:01	06:46:57	03:32:08	30% +0% -70% (7)	(128)
11	50	Antonina Reznikov	ISR	10:21:53	10:41:38	01:13:28	05:31:22	06:49:50	03:32:03	n/a (1 IM Pro race)	(127)
	47	Tessa Kortekaas	NED	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	n/a (no IM Pro race)	(n/a)
	51	Natalie Seymour	GBR	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	n/a (1 IM Pro race)	(n/a)

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

• Bart Aernouts: 39% (2-1)
• Nils Frommhold: 20% (4-1)
• Ben Hoffman: 11% (8-1)
• David McNamee: 10% (9-1)
• James Cunnama: 6% (17-1)
• Patrik Nilsson: 5% (21-1)
• Tim Don: 3% (32-1)
• Michael Weiss: 2% (48-1)

Female Race Participants

• Lucy Charles-Barclay: 76% (1-1)
• Mareen Hufe: 13% (7-1)
• Angela Naeth: 5% (17-1)
• Anja Ippach: 2% (44-1)
• Gurutze Frades Larralde: 2% (61-1)