Ironman South Africa 2019 (April 7th) – Seedings

IMSA_LogoUpdates:

  • April 6th: The following athletes have not signed in for the Pro Meeting and are unlikely to race on Sunday: Peru Alfaro and Philipp Lamberty. Johann Ackerman, Marcus Liebelt, Urs Müller and Angela Naeth haven’t even been on the sign-in sheets, so they probably have withdrawn earlier. I have crossed off these athletes in the tables below.
    This would make it 30 male and 12 female Pros racing, resulting in four male slots and 2 female slots. 
  • March 27th: Jan van Berkel announced that he has pinched a nerve and has to cancel his trip to South Africa. Speedy recovery!
  • March 28th: Evert Scheltinga also won’t be racing.

Previous Winners

Year Male Winner Time Female Winner Time
2006 Gerrit Schellens (BEL) 08:36:06 Natascha Badmann (SUI) 09:46:38
2007 Gerrit Schellens (BEL) 08:33:05 Natascha Badmann (SUI) 09:22:01
2008 Stephen Bayliss (GBR) 08:18:23 Bella Bayliss (GBR) 09:27:48
2009 Marino Vanhoenacker (BEL) 08:17:32 Lucie Zelenkova (CZE) 09:16:32
2010 Raynard Tissink (ZAF) 08:23:28 Sonja Tajsich (GER) 09:16:55
2011 Raynard Tissink (ZAF) 08:05:36 Chrissie Wellington (GBR) 08:33:56
2012 Clemente Alonso McKernan (ESP) 08:34:45 Natascha Badmann (SUI) 09:47:10
2013 Ronnie Schildknecht (SUI) 08:11:24 Jessie Donavan (USA) 09:10:58
2014 Nils Frommhold (GER) 08:26:07 Simone Braendli (SUI) 09:31:54
2015 Frederik Van Lierde (BEL) 08:16:35 Jodie Cunnama (GBR) 09:26:56
2016 Ben Hoffman (USA) 08:12:37 Kaisa Sali (FIN) 09:06:50
2017 Ben Hoffman (USA) 07:58:40 Daniela Ryf (SUI) 08:47:02
2018 Kyle Buckingham (ZAF) 08:13:00 Lucy Charles-Barclay (GBR) 08:56:06

Last Race Results

Here’s the link to the analysis of last year’s results.

Male Top 3

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Kyle Buckingham ZAF 00:48:22 04:31:51 02:48:42 08:13:00
2 Josh Amberger AUS 00:46:24 04:31:35 02:53:43 08:16:01
3 Maurice Clavel GER 00:48:21 04:31:56 02:54:01 08:18:51

Female Top 3

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Lucy Charles-Barclay GBR 00:47:32 04:57:21 03:05:45 08:56:06
2 Susie Cheetham GBR 00:55:48 05:01:54 03:00:47 09:02:58
3 Linsey Corbin USA 00:55:48 05:08:14 02:58:16 09:07:10

Course Records

There have been a couple of course changes over the years, especially on the bike. Nonetheless, the following are the fastest times in South Africa:

Leg Gender Record Athlete Date
Total overall 07:58:40 Ben Hoffman 2017-04-02
Swim overall 00:45:22 Anton Storm 2009-04-05
Bike overall 04:19:41 Raynard Tissink 2011-04-10
Run overall 02:42:52 Ben Hoffman 2017-04-02
Total female 08:33:56 Chrissie Wellington 2011-04-10
Swim female 00:47:32 Lucy Charles-Barclay 2018-04-15
Bike female 04:45:23 Chrissie Wellington 2011-04-10
Run female 02:52:54 Chrissie Wellington 2011-04-10

Course Rating

The Course Rating for IM South Africa is 03:26.

Race Adjustments for IM South Africa

Year Adjustment Swim Adj. Bike Adj. Run Adj. # of Finishers Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating
2006 01:34 -03:56 02:49 02:41 28 01:34 -03:56 02:49 02:41
2007 01:16 -08:10 06:34 02:52 33 01:25 -06:03 04:41 02:47
2008 15:32 01:07 10:31 03:54 36 06:07 -03:41 06:38 03:10
2009 17:18 02:43 13:35 01:01 28 08:55 -02:05 08:23 02:37
2010 09:38 -00:12 08:23 01:27 34 09:03 -01:42 08:23 02:23
2011 15:30 00:07 13:51 01:33 36 10:08 -01:24 09:17 02:15
2012 -11:58 -08:14 -06:39 02:54 28 06:58 -02:23 07:01 02:21
2013 06:23 -01:59 07:37 00:45 36 of 44 06:54 -02:20 07:05 02:09
2014 -12:12 -01:03 -08:23 -02:47 29 of 40 04:46 -02:11 05:22 01:36
2015 -13:44 -00:59 -11:06 -01:39 49 of 61 02:55 -02:04 03:44 01:16
2016 03:31 -03:11 06:40 00:03 42 of 53 02:59 -02:10 04:00 01:10
2017 08:21 -00:16 07:41 00:57 43 of 63 03:25 -02:01 04:18 01:09
2018 03:34 -00:07 01:35 02:06 35 of 47 03:26 -01:52 04:06 01:13

Kona slots and Prize Money

IM South Africa has 2m+2f +2u Pro Kona slot(s). Looking at the bib list, it is like that the female Pros will get two Kona slots, while the males will get four. (Final assignment is based on the number of Pros starting the race.) It has a total prize purse of 150.000 US$, paying 10 deep.

Estimated Time Plan and Race Coverage

The following table shows the time plan for the race start and the estimated times for the first athlete in the transition zones or across the finish line. The estimates are based on the start time and my time estimates, these times can change based on how fast or slow the race ends up:

What Est. Racetime Est. Local Time
Male Pro Start 06:30
Female Pro Start 06:35
Age Group Start 06:45
First Male in T1 00:47:46 07:17
First Female in T1 00:49:08 07:24
First Male in T2 05:18:38 11:48
First Female in T2 05:47:29 12:22
Male Winner 08:06:50 14:36
Female Winner 08:53:29 15:28

Port Elizabeth is on South Africa Standard Time, 2 hours ahead of UTC. Here are the conversions to a few other time zones:

  • +8 hours: Melbourne (AEST, DST ends on April 7th), race starts 2:30pm
  • – 1 hour: United Kingdom (BST), race starts at 5:30am
  • no difference: Central Europe (CEST), race starts at 6:30am
  • – 6 hours: US East Coast (EDT), race starts at 12:30am
  • – 9 hours: US West Coast (PDT), race starts at 9:30pm on Saturday

The race will be available on Ironman NOW through Facebook Watch.

Male Race Participants

The strength of the field is 74% of a typical Kona field.

# Bib Name Nat Expected Rating ESwim EBike ET2 ERun Consistency Overall
1 8 Nils Frommhold GER 08:06:50 08:26:04 00:50:04 04:25:13 05:20:17 02:46:33 53% +0% -47% (11) (32)
2 2 Ben Hoffman USA 08:08:02 08:20:48 00:50:23 04:25:56 05:21:19 02:46:43 34% +37% -30% (21) 16
3 12 Patrik Nilsson SWE 08:08:29 08:15:07 00:49:12 04:28:40 05:22:52 02:45:37 47% +20% -33% (11) 6
4 5 Bart Aernouts (AQ) BEL 08:09:03 08:12:50 00:53:43 04:28:11 05:26:54 02:42:09 71% +24% -5% (14) 5
5 6 David McNamee (AQ) GBR 08:10:22 08:15:28 00:49:40 04:30:54 05:25:34 02:44:48 41% +39% -21% (9) 7
6 10 James Cunnama ZAF 08:15:26 08:23:38 00:50:32 04:27:03 05:22:34 02:52:52 53% +20% -27% (29) 27
7 15 Michael Weiss (KQ) AUT 08:16:00 08:23:45 00:55:40 04:22:02 05:22:43 02:53:17 90% +2% -8% (24) 28
8 14 Andreas Dreitz GER 08:16:41 08:21:34 00:51:22 04:22:16 05:18:38 02:58:03 70% +0% -30% (4) 20
9 11 Tim Van Berkel AUS 08:17:52 08:21:27 00:49:57 04:34:01 05:28:58 02:48:54 89% +6% -5% (26) 19
10 7 Tim Don GBR 08:19:19 08:28:54 00:49:48 04:24:50 05:19:37 02:59:42 19% +14% -67% (7) 43
11 1 Kyle Buckingham ZAF 08:19:22 08:27:33 00:50:28 04:31:10 05:26:37 02:52:45 80% +7% -13% (17) 36
12 4 Maurice Clavel GER 08:20:01 08:21:37 00:49:37 04:28:35 05:23:12 02:56:49 79% +0% -21% (4) 21
13 16 Jan van Berkel SUI 08:20:01 08:25:40 00:50:27 04:33:41 05:29:08 02:50:53 69% +20% -10% (20) 30
14 3 Josh Amberger AUS 08:21:31 08:35:16 00:47:46 04:28:28 05:21:14 03:00:17 60% +11% -29% (7) 62
15 19 Alessandro Degasperi ITA 08:23:58 08:31:22 00:51:33 04:38:36 05:35:09 02:48:49 69% +0% -31% (16) 53
16 13 Eneko Llanos (KQ) ESP 08:25:50 08:28:18 00:50:10 04:30:24 05:25:34 03:00:16 79% +0% -21% (36) 39
17 17 Giulio Molinari ITA 08:26:20 08:30:43 00:50:05 04:31:51 05:26:57 02:59:23 84% +0% -16% (8) 50
18 35 Evert Scheltinga NED 08:26:36 08:34:12 00:50:38 04:30:08 05:25:46 03:00:50 78% +0% -22% (8) 59
19 9 Matt Trautman (KQ) ZAF 08:27:07 08:30:00 00:52:20 04:33:50 05:31:10 02:55:57 30% +34% -36% (8) 47
20 18 Johann Ackermann GER 08:31:50 08:40:04 00:49:51 04:33:05 05:27:56 03:03:54 70% +0% -30% (13) 82
21 27 Samuel Huerzeler SUI 08:33:45 08:42:11 00:54:28 04:39:08 05:38:37 02:55:08 79% +21% -0% (14) 89
22 33 Gustavo Rodriguez Iglesias ESP 08:34:03 08:44:45 00:56:30 04:37:29 05:38:59 02:55:04 44% +34% -22% (6) 98
23 36 Markus Thomschke GER 08:34:26 08:37:31 00:53:40 04:36:01 05:34:41 02:59:45 55% +17% -29% (21) 76
24 21 Peru Alfaro San Ildefonso ESP 08:35:45 08:45:05 00:49:42 04:42:19 05:37:01 02:58:44 59% +0% -41% (5) 100
25 23 Reece Barclay GBR 08:40:12 08:56:43 00:49:49 04:42:53 05:37:42 03:02:30 56% +0% -44% (2) (141)
26 29 Markus Liebelt GER 08:41:35 08:55:18 00:54:34 04:35:50 05:35:24 03:06:11 40% +0% -60% (5) (137)
27 22 Victor Arroyo Bugallo ESP 08:44:01 08:52:32 00:59:07 04:46:39 05:50:46 02:53:15 64% +0% -36% (3) 124
28 25 Karl-Johan Danielsson SWE 08:51:18 09:05:28 00:53:16 04:38:20 05:36:36 03:14:42 41% +13% -46% (18) 168
29 31 Sebastian Norberg SWE 08:54:10 09:03:58 00:56:28 04:42:50 05:44:18 03:09:52 41% +21% -38% (5) 165
30 30 Urs Mueller SUI 09:00:55 09:10:52 00:54:36 04:47:54 05:47:30 03:13:25 66% +9% -25% (11) 182
31 24 Vinicius Canhedo BRA 09:07:07 09:22:38 00:54:15 04:57:50 05:57:05 03:10:02 16% +31% -53% (5) (216)
32 32 Jonas Oerarbaeck SWE 09:10:06 09:22:51 01:02:00 04:57:27 06:04:28 03:05:38 63% +0% -37% (3) (218)
33 20 Gerhard De Bruin ZAF 09:14:04 09:26:31 00:56:09 04:52:50 05:53:59 03:20:05 84% +16% -0% (7) 224
34 26 Eneko Elosegui ESP 09:26:26 09:34:16 01:02:41 04:55:21 06:03:02 03:23:24 82% +4% -14% (22) 239
35 28 Philippe Lamberty LUX 10:12:58 10:34:01 00:55:36 04:54:34 05:55:09 04:17:49 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (269)
34 Paul Ruttmann AUT n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated unrated 0% +0% -100% (2) (n/a)
37 Clinton Gravett ZAF n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)

Female Race Participants

The strength of the field is 20% of a typical Kona field.

# Bib Name Nat Expected Rating ESwim EBike ET2 ERun Consistency Overall
1 40 Lucy Charles-Barclay (AQ) GBR 08:53:29 09:00:49 00:49:08 04:53:21 05:47:29 03:06:00 48% +52% -0% (6) 2
2 52 Angela Naeth CAN 09:14:45 09:25:27 01:01:16 04:53:37 05:59:53 03:14:52 3% +72% -25% (11) 33
3 43 Mareen Hufe (KQ) GER 09:16:12 09:19:01 01:00:22 04:55:46 06:01:09 03:15:03 79% +17% -4% (29) 20
4 44 Anja Ippach GER 09:20:21 09:29:34 00:53:53 04:58:20 05:57:13 03:23:08 52% +3% -45% (13) (38)
5 42 Lauren Brandon USA 09:27:21 09:38:17 00:49:48 05:04:24 05:59:12 03:28:09 39% +16% -46% (9) 49
6 41 Gurutze Frades Larralde ESP 09:28:57 09:34:42 01:02:42 05:11:47 06:19:29 03:09:28 84% +9% -7% (13) 43
7 45 Annah Watkinson ZAF 09:37:09 09:49:41 01:01:08 05:15:27 06:21:34 03:15:35 54% +0% -46% (8) 68
8 46 Federica De Nicola ITA 09:42:28 09:50:08 01:02:27 05:09:19 06:16:46 03:25:42 78% +0% -22% (4) 71
9 49 Ashley Paulson USA 09:58:05 10:08:27 01:15:11 05:28:13 06:48:23 03:09:42 66% +12% -23% (10) 94
10 48 Angela Lindberg GER 10:19:05 10:42:54 01:04:56 05:37:01 06:46:57 03:32:08 30% +0% -70% (7) (128)
11 50 Antonina Reznikov ISR 10:21:53 10:41:38 01:13:28 05:31:22 06:49:50 03:32:03 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (127)
47 Tessa Kortekaas NED n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
51 Natalie Seymour GBR n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (1 IM Pro race) (n/a)

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

  • Bart Aernouts: 39% (2-1)
  • Nils Frommhold: 20% (4-1)
  • Ben Hoffman: 11% (8-1)
  • David McNamee: 10% (9-1)
  • James Cunnama: 6% (17-1)
  • Patrik Nilsson: 5% (21-1)
  • Tim Don: 3% (32-1)
  • Michael Weiss: 2% (48-1)

Female Race Participants

  • Lucy Charles-Barclay: 76% (1-1)
  • Mareen Hufe: 13% (7-1)
  • Angela Naeth: 5% (17-1)
  • Anja Ippach: 2% (44-1)
  • Gurutze Frades Larralde: 2% (61-1)

One Response to Ironman South Africa 2019 (April 7th) – Seedings

  1. Martin L. Lorenzo April 7, 2019 at 12:40 am #

    Great stuff

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