Thanks to the support of VeloDynamics, I was again be able to offer my “Live Predictions” during the race. The page is still up at http://kona.trirating.com, and is probably the easiest way to look at the actual splits with capabilities for sorting the data. Please check it out!
I will likely analyze the race in more detail in future posts, today I just want to put up my base analysis looking at how fast (or slow?) Kona was in 2014, and how each of the athletes performed relative to their previous results.
Race Conditions
Even if this year’s race was a bit slower than last year (adjustments 2014: 1:11 vs. 2013: 3:53), it was still a relatively quick race for Kona (course rating -3:42). The swim and bike were typically slow for Kona, but conditions on the run appeared to be quite good. It sounded to me that athletes had to respect the tough Kona conditions – and there were some big explosions for those who didn’t or couldn’t: In addition to the DNFs, there were six athletes that were more than an hour slower than expected.
Male Race Results
| Rank | Name | Nation | Swim | Bike | Run | Time | Diff to expected |
| 1 | Sebastian Kienle | GER | 00:54:38 | 04:20:46 | 02:54:36 | 08:14:18 | -08:46 |
| 2 | Ben Hoffman | USA | 00:51:20 | 04:32:20 | 02:51:25 | 08:19:23 | -17:40 |
| 3 | Jan Frodeno | GER | 00:50:56 | 04:37:19 | 02:47:46 | 08:20:32 | -22:44 |
| 4 | Andy Potts | USA | 00:50:56 | 04:36:56 | 02:48:18 | 08:21:38 | -10:31 |
| 5 | Cyril Viennot | FRA | 00:54:32 | 04:31:18 | 02:51:55 | 08:22:19 | -17:13 |
| 6 | Nils Frommhold | GER | 00:51:14 | 04:34:11 | 02:52:45 | 08:22:29 | -00:47 |
| 7 | Tim Van Berkel | AUS | 00:51:21 | 04:36:45 | 02:50:53 | 08:23:26 | -20:22 |
| 8 | Frederik Van Lierde | BEL | 00:51:03 | 04:32:17 | 02:56:21 | 08:24:11 | 00:05 |
| 9 | Bart Aernouts | BEL | 00:55:43 | 04:37:47 | 02:50:12 | 08:28:28 | -01:02 |
| 10 | Romain Guillaume | FRA | 00:51:08 | 04:34:23 | 02:59:58 | 08:30:15 | -22:35 |
| 11 | Maik Twelsiek | GER | 00:54:38 | 04:24:03 | 03:07:20 | 08:31:06 | -10:07 |
| 12 | Ronnie Schildknecht | SUI | 00:55:39 | 04:38:09 | 02:54:54 | 08:33:35 | 04:26 |
| 13 | Craig Alexander | AUS | 00:51:50 | 04:41:39 | 02:58:58 | 08:36:25 | 14:18 |
| 14 | Paul Matthews | AUS | 00:51:08 | 04:38:43 | 03:03:09 | 08:37:17 | 14:17 |
| 15 | Luke McKenzie | AUS | 00:54:36 | 04:36:44 | 03:02:12 | 08:38:12 | -03:21 |
| 16 | Michael Weiss | AUT | 01:00:52 | 04:33:55 | 02:58:35 | 08:38:27 | 06:25 |
| 17 | Ivan Rana | ESP | 00:51:56 | 04:58:10 | 02:44:38 | 08:38:59 | 08:24 |
| 18 | Jeremy Jurkiewicz | FRA | 00:51:49 | 04:50:27 | 02:53:06 | 08:39:46 | 01:18 |
| 19 | Marko Albert | EST | 00:51:01 | 04:39:18 | 03:05:18 | 08:40:02 | 01:47 |
| 20 | Boris Stein | GER | 01:01:52 | 04:36:43 | 02:57:54 | 08:40:42 | -17:56 |
| 21 | Timothy Reed | AUS | 00:51:25 | 04:38:21 | 03:10:07 | 08:44:45 | -34:26 |
| 22 | Marek Jaskolka | POL | 00:54:36 | 04:53:02 | 02:56:12 | 08:48:27 | -11:06 |
| 23 | Matthew Russell | USA | 01:00:52 | 04:39:17 | 03:04:06 | 08:49:03 | -06:41 |
| 24 | Kyle Buckingham | ZAF | 00:54:33 | 04:44:38 | 03:06:01 | 08:50:28 | 03:44 |
| 25 | Igor Amorelli | BRA | 00:51:00 | 04:41:26 | 03:15:47 | 08:52:37 | 11:07 |
| 26 | Justin Daerr | USA | 00:57:32 | 04:50:25 | 03:01:58 | 08:54:01 | 09:10 |
| 27 | Joe Gambles | AUS | 00:52:04 | 04:51:55 | 03:05:45 | 08:55:15 | 21:33 |
| 28 | Christian Brader | GER | 01:02:28 | 04:59:30 | 02:50:38 | 08:57:56 | -01:27 |
| 29 | Harry Wiltshire | GBR | 00:51:19 | 04:58:57 | 03:05:36 | 09:00:00 | -12:48 |
| 30 | Paul Ambrose | GBR | 00:52:15 | 04:50:29 | 03:15:43 | 09:02:58 | 12:35 |
| 31 | Filip Ospaly | CZE | 00:51:06 | 04:59:00 | 03:16:08 | 09:10:57 | 17:06 |
| 32 | Timothy O’Donnell | USA | 00:51:04 | 04:37:02 | 03:52:30 | 09:25:13 | 49:09 |
| 33 | Daniel Fontana | ITA | 00:51:23 | 05:02:03 | 03:39:02 | 09:37:44 | 1:00:01 |
| 34 | Marino Vanhoenacker | BEL | 00:55:31 | 04:24:59 | 04:31:02 | 09:55:19 | 1:31:37 |
| 35 | Elliot Holtham | CAN | 00:55:36 | 05:17:39 | 03:51:07 | 10:10:59 | 1:04:22 |
| 36 | Andreas Raelert | GER | 00:51:27 | 04:36:42 | 05:16:44 | 10:49:09 | 1:27:15 |
| Daniel Halksworth | GBR | 00:51:05 | 04:37:06 | DNF | |||
| Christian Kramer | GER | 00:51:11 | 04:41:23 | DNF | |||
| TJ Tollakson | USA | 00:54:30 | 04:42:34 | DNF | |||
| James Cunnama | ZAF | 00:54:37 | 04:47:04 | DNF | |||
| Eneko Llanos | ESP | 00:52:14 | 04:50:27 | DNF | |||
| Andrew Starykowicz | USA | 00:51:17 | 04:52:59 | DNF | |||
| Richie Cunningham | AUS | 00:51:37 | 04:55:09 | DNF | |||
| Chris McDonald | AUS | 01:00:52 | 04:46:29 | DNF | |||
| Victor Del Corral | ESP | 01:06:14 | 04:55:34 | DNF | |||
| David Plese | SLO | 00:55:41 | 05:06:59 | DNF | |||
| Pete Jacobs | AUS | 00:51:05 | 09:58:40 | DNF | |||
| Bevan Docherty | NZL | 00:51:20 | DNF | ||||
| Terenzo Bozzone | NZL | 00:51:24 | DNF | ||||
| Faris Al-Sultan | GER | 00:54:05 | DNF | ||||
| Tyler Butterfield | BMU | 00:54:35 | DNF | ||||
| Axel Zeebroek | BEL | 00:55:26 | DNF |
Female Race Results
| Rank | Name | Nation | Swim | Bike | Run | Time | Diff to expected |
| 1 | Mirinda Carfrae | AUS | 01:00:14 | 05:05:48 | 02:50:26 | 09:00:55 | -06:05 |
| 2 | Daniela Ryf | SUI | 00:56:55 | 04:54:33 | 03:07:00 | 09:02:57 | -26:44 |
| 3 | Rachel Joyce | GBR | 00:56:47 | 04:56:49 | 03:06:27 | 09:04:23 | -05:42 |
| 4 | Jodie Swallow | GBR | 00:54:28 | 05:02:46 | 03:08:45 | 09:10:19 | -15:06 |
| 5 | Caroline Steffen | SUI | 00:56:53 | 05:02:03 | 03:08:43 | 09:12:43 | 00:50 |
| 6 | Julia Gajer | GER | 01:00:17 | 05:06:13 | 03:04:39 | 09:16:58 | -09:50 |
| 7 | Elizabeth Lyles | USA | 01:00:19 | 05:10:15 | 03:03:24 | 09:18:11 | -14:57 |
| 8 | Gina Crawford | NZL | 00:55:04 | 05:17:30 | 03:01:49 | 09:19:21 | -07:20 |
| 9 | Mary Beth Ellis | USA | 00:54:56 | 05:00:04 | 03:21:24 | 09:20:46 | 00:54 |
| 10 | Liz Blatchford | GBR | 00:54:59 | 05:13:30 | 03:10:16 | 09:23:34 | 02:45 |
| 11 | Corinne Abraham | GBR | 01:06:26 | 05:11:45 | 03:02:47 | 09:25:04 | -12:08 |
| 12 | Linsey Corbin | USA | 01:06:19 | 05:15:21 | 02:58:58 | 09:25:38 | 02:30 |
| 13 | Simone Braendli | SUI | 00:56:46 | 05:16:06 | 03:14:43 | 09:32:33 | -03:42 |
| 14 | Michelle Vesterby | DEN | 00:56:49 | 05:12:12 | 03:20:24 | 09:34:14 | 04:37 |
| 15 | Heather Wurtele | CAN | 01:00:11 | 05:03:43 | 03:25:09 | 09:34:18 | 01:06 |
| 16 | Bree Wee | USA | 00:57:21 | 05:16:42 | 03:16:01 | 09:34:37 | -13:58 |
| 17 | Asa Lundstroem | SWE | 01:06:43 | 05:11:42 | 03:13:33 | 09:36:22 | -12:42 |
| 18 | Leanda Cave | GBR | 00:55:49 | 05:14:11 | 03:21:26 | 09:36:23 | 11:12 |
| 19 | Kelly Williamson | USA | 01:00:09 | 05:33:50 | 03:03:03 | 09:41:18 | 06:05 |
| 20 | Lisa Roberts | USA | 01:16:17 | 05:19:09 | 03:02:48 | 09:44:51 | -02:52 |
| 21 | Amber Ferreira | USA | 01:00:22 | 05:17:54 | 03:22:04 | 09:45:41 | -12:55 |
| 22 | Caitlin Snow | USA | 01:00:12 | 05:25:42 | 03:16:54 | 09:48:14 | 19:59 |
| 23 | Amanda Stevens | USA | 00:54:25 | 05:15:57 | 03:34:26 | 09:49:40 | 05:06 |
| 24 | Natascha Badmann | SUI | 01:06:39 | 05:12:08 | 03:25:06 | 09:50:37 | 19:51 |
| 25 | Kristin Moeller | GER | 01:15:23 | 05:24:50 | 03:07:39 | 09:52:02 | 13:59 |
| 26 | Melanie Burke | NZL | 01:20:31 | 05:09:22 | 03:19:03 | 09:54:04 | -04:41 |
| 27 | Beth Shutt | USA | 01:06:16 | 05:25:06 | 03:23:01 | 09:59:49 | -03:18 |
| 28 | Sofie Goos | BEL | 01:06:24 | 05:25:26 | 03:39:45 | 10:16:31 | 39:08 |
| 29 | Jackie Arendt | USA | 01:00:15 | 05:33:41 | 03:40:48 | 10:20:54 | 24:25 |
| 30 | Katja Konschak | GER | 00:57:09 | 05:39:08 | 03:59:28 | 10:42:55 | 40:23 |
| 31 | Kim Schwabenbauer | USA | 01:11:38 | 05:32:17 | 04:29:38 | 11:19:18 | 1:33:57 |
| 32 | Lucy Gossage | GBR | 01:06:36 | 05:17:55 | 05:02:44 | 11:32:12 | 1:55:01 |
| Meredith Kessler | USA | 00:54:29 | 05:11:04 | DNF | |||
| Yvonne Van Vlerken | NED | 01:06:33 | 05:05:17 | DNF | |||
| Catriona Morrison | GBR | 01:00:11 | 05:19:19 | DNF | |||
| Sara Gross | CAN | 01:00:20 | 05:29:50 | DNF |
Thorsten, really appreciate all the work and analysis you do. Did any of the German media report why Faris DNF’d in Kona? None of the US media reports have any information. Thanks.
From what I heard, he was tired after his season and didn’t feel he had enough in the tank for a reasonable chance for a Top 10.
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