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Kona 2015 Profile: Beth Gerdes (USA)

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Career Highlights

  • Ironman Winner (Switzerland)

2015 Season

  • 5th IM Malaysia 10:15:19
  • 4th IM Western Australia 9:04:38
  • 5th IM Melbourne 9:05:08
  • DNF IM Cairns
  • 1st IM Switzerland 9:21:05
  • 2nd 70.3 Philippines
  • 6th 70.3 Sunshine Coast

The last few years have been a total whirlwind for Beth: Starting a new relationship with an Australian Pro triathlete training in California who “happened” to live next door, wondering why she was vomiting at IM Wisconsin 2013, supporting her new boyfriend who finished 2nd in Kona, finding out she was pregnant, having her baby daughter Wynne at the end of May ’14 and getting back into Ironman racing in September. And that was just the start of her crazy busy 2015 racing season!

Roughly four months after giving birth to Wynne, Beth raced IM Malaysia, finishing 5th. In December she raced IM Western Australia, finishing fourth with a sub-3h marathon. In March she finished 5th at IM Melbourne, posting her first sub-5h IM bike leg. Even with a few more points from 70.3 racing, she didn’t have enough points to qualify. She lined up with Luke at IM Cairns only to DNF early on the bike when her bike kit didn’t include a valve extender and she couldn’t put air in her tires after fixing a flat. (She couldn’t be too mad at her bike mechanic – Luke had a great day and won the men’s race.) It was mid-June, Beth still need more points to qualify and time was running out. After a bit of back and forth, she settled on racing IM Switzerland, probably needing a second place finish for a Kona slot. She came off the bike in third place, quickly overtook Mareen Hufe (who “only” needed third to qualify) but was still more than ten minutes behind Mary Beth Ellis at the half-marathon mark. That quickly changed when MBE struggled and Beth ran a phenomenal 3:01 marathon (within a minute of the run course record). Beth took the lead at 36k and went on for her first Ironman win – and finally a safe position for a Kona slot. Of course this was the highlight of her season so far: “Winning Ironman Switzerland was my first Ironman win, so of course it was special. It was also unexpected, which made it even more of a personal highlight.”

BethWynne

Still, she didn’t take things easy to focus on Kona: In addition to racing two more 70.3s she and Luke bought a house in Noosa to use as a training base. “I am still in the groove and excited for Kona. I keep seeing progress with my training and racing, so that keeps me motivated. But I am absolutely ready for a break after Hawaii. I think Kona will be my last Ironman for the year, but I guess you never know.” Ask any question about Kona and you can tell how much she is looking forward to the race: “I’m excited to race the Top 40 women in the world in Ironman. Kona is the only time you can do that and truly see where you rank in the world-wide scheme of things. I think the pro race experience will be completely different from the age group race. Sitting on the sidelines the past two years, I have a good idea about how the race can unfold, and I’m excited to be a part of it. So even though much of the race and course is known to me, it will feel completely new and I’m not sure how it will unfold on the day.”

For a good Kona result, Beth needs to limit the time she looses to the rest of the field on the swim. “I need to get into a solid swim pack that swims around 1 hour. If I come out of the water with this group of girls, I can set myself up for a really good day. I love non-wetsuit swims without surf/beach entry, so Kona is a great course for me and I believe I can make it happen. I’m swimming 25-30k of long course meters per week with an elite squad which is giving me some uncharted swim fitness. I also thrive on the Kona atmosphere. Whether I’m racing or not, the Big Island during Ironman week is my happiest place on earth.” With her run strength she’ll be able to plow through most of the Kona field. If she manages to come off the bike not much more than 20 minutes behind the leaders, I’m sure we’ll see her run into the Top 10.

(Photo: Beth getting some extra motivation by daughter Wynne on the run at 70.3 Sunshine Coast. Supplied by Beth.)

This is an excerpt from my free “Kona Rating Report” – 150+ pages with tons of information about the Kona Pro races!

Ironman Barcelona 2015 – Analyzing Results

Race Conditions

The race in Barcelona was the fastest I have analyzed – an adjustment of 34:39 makes it more than 30 minutes faster than times in Kona, and about 15 minutes quicker than Roth or Austria this year. As usual most of this time is “made” on the bike, but the run was also very quick. 

The fast conditions helped to set a completely new set of course records – swim, bike, run & overall for men and women!

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to expected Prize Money
1 David Plese SLO 00:50:39 04:25:28 02:43:38 08:02:20 -06:42 US$ 10000
2 Anton Blokhin UKR 00:47:45 04:19:06 02:56:18 08:05:50 -11:14 US$ 5000
3 Per Bittner GER 00:47:44 04:19:28 02:56:37 08:06:23 -03:58 US$ 3250
4 Mauro Baertsch SUI 00:51:12 04:26:28 02:49:53 08:10:25 -13:53 US$ 2500
5 Tim Brydenbach BEL 00:47:34 04:23:41 02:56:30 08:10:34 08:54 US$ 1750
6 Marek Jaskolka POL 00:47:36 04:30:00 02:54:16 08:14:37 01:42 US$ 1250
7 Dirk Wijnalda NED 00:56:59 04:26:04 02:48:37 08:14:51 -11:02 US$ 750
8 Sergio Marques POR 00:54:51 04:28:19 02:49:31 08:15:28 -08:09 US$ 500
9 Michael Ruenz GER 00:56:55 04:22:34 02:52:49 08:15:36 00:18  
10 Xavier Torrades ESP 00:50:26 04:27:10 03:00:30 08:20:45 -01:21  
11 Josep Vinolas ESP 00:56:29 04:26:39 02:56:38 08:22:51 -36:26  
12 Andreas Niedrig GER 00:47:46 04:17:46 03:14:59 08:23:28 -11:09  
13 Jens Frommhold GER 00:56:58 04:26:37 02:57:28 08:23:43 n/a  
14 Mikita Hryhoryeu POL 00:50:43 04:32:45 02:57:32 08:23:48 n/a  
15 Roman Deisenhofer GER 00:53:15 04:27:06 03:02:07 08:24:57 -17:45  
16 Petr Vabrousek CZE 00:56:41 04:26:44 03:01:13 08:27:35 -00:11  
17 Denis Sketako SLO 00:56:45 04:24:38 03:03:43 08:27:50 -14:25  
18 Mikolaj Luft POL 00:50:02 04:27:09 03:07:52 08:28:09 n/a  
19 Oliver Simon GBR 00:47:32 04:24:34 03:19:28 08:34:17 -16:50  
20 Allan Hovda NOR 01:03:30 04:30:32 02:59:17 08:36:08 -14:50  
21 Hannes Cool BEL 00:47:42 04:23:39 03:27:00 08:41:09 06:22  
22 Bryan McCrystal IRL 01:02:47 04:17:11 03:18:30 08:41:29 09:52  
23 Luca De Paolis ITA 01:00:05 04:33:36 03:08:10 08:45:51 -16:25  
24 Emanuele Ciotti ITA 00:50:47 04:37:58 03:15:33 08:47:54 -17:49  
25 Michael Louys BEL 01:02:11 04:31:15 03:16:34 08:53:27 02:14  
26 Gili Oriol ESP 00:54:40 04:28:36 03:27:35 08:54:00 -1:00:36  
27 Philip Mosley GBR 00:57:08 04:46:21 03:08:35 08:55:22 n/a  
28 Enric Gussinyer ESP 00:50:53 04:31:56 03:29:47 08:56:04 07:32  
29 Rafael Espinar Puig ESP 01:03:08 04:50:09 03:05:09 09:02:54 01:06  
30 Lukas Polan CZE 01:01:18 04:47:47 03:13:43 09:06:01 -11:48  
31 Vincent Depuiset FRA 01:11:42 04:40:42 03:10:17 09:06:48 -07:00  
32 Ivan Kharin RUS 00:59:48 04:50:56 03:20:04 09:13:41 -04:52  
33 Ludovic Le Guellec FRA 00:59:25 04:59:44 03:21:35 09:23:51 -07:26  
34 David Rovira Donate ESP 00:57:12 04:55:09 03:48:45 09:45:31 n/a  
35 Javier Castro Romero ESP 01:11:14 04:51:19 03:38:23 09:45:31 n/a  
36 Valentin Zasypkin RUS 01:13:07 04:53:16 03:37:16 09:48:03 -52:31  
37 Roman Krutina CZE 00:56:43 04:45:03 04:10:49 09:56:38 36:29  
38 Simon Brierley SEY 00:58:01 04:48:09 04:10:08 09:59:32 -03:51  
39 Michal Jalovecky CZE 01:05:04 05:18:52 03:32:42 10:00:12 -00:44  
40 Magnus Magnoy SWE 01:02:10 04:50:05 04:11:07 10:07:03 53:45  
41 Marek Nemcik SVK 01:14:18 05:03:02 04:27:25 10:49:49 -24:46  
  Ruedi Wild SUI 00:47:40 04:24:07   DNF  
  Albert Molins ESP 00:50:43 04:27:05   DNF  
  Sebastian Bleisteiner GER 00:47:34 04:30:37   DNF  
  Matteo Fontana ITA 00:59:21 04:22:37   DNF  
  Benoit Bigot FRA 00:47:38 04:38:59   DNF  
  Gilian Oriet SUI 00:57:09 04:44:52   DNF  
  Ivan Jezko SVK 01:00:10 04:43:30   DNF  
  Jose Luis Villanueva ESP 00:59:43 04:50:35   DNF  
  Harry Wiltshire GBR 00:47:31     DNF  
  Ritchie Nicholls GBR 00:47:42     DNF  
  Chris McDonald AUS 00:53:09     DNF  
  David Jilek CZE 01:03:58     DNF  
  Remmert Wielinga NED 01:08:06     DNF  

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to expected Prize Money
1 Yvonne Van Vlerken NED 00:59:57 04:41:28 03:02:48 08:46:44 05:19 US$ 10000
2 Kaisa Lehtonen FIN 00:53:22 04:46:41 03:05:34 08:48:40 n/a US$ 5000
3 Elisabeth Gruber AUT 01:00:19 04:48:34 03:02:12 08:54:03 -06:20 US$ 3250
4 Eimear Mullan IRL 01:00:11 04:48:44 03:04:55 08:56:51 -09:52 US$ 2500
5 Martina Dogana ITA 01:00:01 04:49:03 03:13:40 09:05:30 -06:18 US$ 1750
6 Vanessa Raw GBR 00:53:30 04:51:47 03:28:29 09:17:14 n/a US$ 1250
7 Anna Rovira Garrido ESP 01:14:48 04:56:29 03:26:33 09:41:05 -10:42 US$ 750
  Natascha Badmann SUI 01:04:41 04:40:22   DNF  
  Michaela Renner-Schneck GER 00:59:53 05:02:50   DNF  
  Vanessa Pereira POR 01:04:27 05:09:13   DNF  
  Michelle Vella Wood MLT 01:09:15 05:12:55   DNF  

Kona 2015 “Heatmaps”

In my Kona Rating Report I’m using a “star system” to show athletes chances to place well overall and how strong they are in each of the disciplines on a scale of zero to five symbols. The number of symbols is based on the ratings, the more symbols the better.

Here is compact way to look at the data, giving you a chance to view the whole field in one “heatmap”. In these graphs, a darker red corresponds to more stars, white is equal to no stars.

Female Pros

Women Pro Heatwave

(Click on the image for full-resolution.)

The best athletes in each leg and overall are:

  • Swim: Jodie Swallow, Meredith Kessler, Amanda Stevens, Haley Chura
  • Bike: Caroline Steffen, Rachel Joyce, Daniela Ryf, Angela Naeth
  • Run: Mirinda Carfrae
  • Overall: Mirinda Carfrae, Rachel Joyce, Daniela Ryf

Male Pros

Men Pro Heatmap

(Click on the image for full-resolution.)

The best athletes in each leg and overall are:

  • Swim: Jan Frodeno, Andy Potts, Timothy O’Donnell, Andi Boecherer, Dylan McNeice, Matt Chrabot
  • Bike: Andi Boecherer, Marino Vanhoenacker, Sebastian Kienle, Maik Twelsiek
  • Run: Jan Frodeno, Brent McMahon, Jeff Symonds, Bart Aernouts, Ivan Rana, Matt Hanson
  • Overall: Jan Frodeno, Frederik Van Lierde, Sebastian Kienle

Kona 2015 Odds – Female Pros

RinnyFinish2014

Female Winners

There is a similar story to men’s battle between Sebi and Frodo on the women’s side: Last year’s champion Mirinda Carfrae had her typical quiet year, but she is always ready to race in October. Based on her previous Kona races, she is still the statistical favorite. But Rinny will be challenged by Frankfurt winner and 70.3 Champion Daniela Ryf who has continued her amazing development from last year. Rachel Joyce is relatively close to these two but hasn’t had a great season so far. The low numbers of the Long Shots show how dominant the chances of the main contenders are.

Favorites

  • Mirinda Carfrae 38% (2-1)
  • Daniela Ryf 22% (3-1)

In the Mix

  • Rachel Joyce 17% (5-1)

Long Shots

  • Caroline Steffen 4% (27-1)
  • Eva Wutti 3% (29-1)
  • Leanda Cave 2% (52-1)

Female TOP 3

For the women, there are good chances for the same podium as last year: Rinny, Rachel and Daniela are safe podium bets. But repeat podiums in Kona are very race – there have only been two ever: 2002 to 2004 saw Natascha, Lori Bowden and Nina Kraft in different order on the podium. Therefore we can expect at least one other athlete on this year’s podium. The likeliest candidates are Kona rookies Eva Wutti and Angela Naeth, and the more experienced Meredith Kessler, Leanda Cave, Caroline Steffen or Jodie Swallow.

Safe Bets

  • Mirinda Carfrae 46% (1-1)
  • Rachel Joyce 46% (1-1)
  • Daniela Ryf 44% (1-1)

Knocking on the Door

  • Eva Wutti 25% (3-1)
  • Meredith Kessler 18% (4-1)
  • Leanda Cave 17% (5-1)
  • Caroline Steffen 16% (5-1)
  • Jodie Swallow 15% (6-1)
  • Angela Naeth 14% (6-1)

Outside Chances

  • Julia Gajer 11% (8-1)
  • Haley Chura 9% (10-1)
  • Liz Blatchford 3% (29-1)
  • Mary Beth Ellis 2% (39-1)

(Photo: Rinny close the finish line in 2014. Credit: Jay Prasuhn)

This is an excerpt from my free “Kona Rating Report” – 150+ pages with tons of information about the Kona Pro races!

Kona 2015 Odds – Male Pros

Male Winners

FrodoSebi703

This year will be quite interesting as it is very hard to pick a clear favorite based purely on numbers. For Kona the previous year’s winner will always be in the mix. Defending champion Sebastian Kienle has shown some good races this year, so there is every reason to expect him close to the front again. But he is overshadowed by last year’s third, Jan Frodeno. Jan had a dominant race in Frankfurt, improving Sebi’s course record from last year and also winning the 70.3 Champs.

Based on the data the next athlete to consider is Marino Vanhoenacker. He still has to show that he can have one more great race in Kona. Frederik Van Lierde, the 2013 Champion, will be in the mix as well. Nils Frommhold seems to be ready to take another step forward after his 6th place last year and winning Challenge Roth in the summer.

Favorites

  • Jan Frodeno 22% (3-1)
  • Sebastian Kienle 19% (4-1)

In the Mix

  • Marino Vanhoenacker 16% (5-1)
  • Frederik Van Lierde 12% (7-1)
  • Nils Frommhold 10% (9-1)

Long Shots

  • Brent McMahon 4% (26-1)
  • Ivan Rana 3% (28-1)
  • Andi Boecherer 3% (36-1)
  • Andy Potts 2% (50-1)

Male TOP 3

Sebi and Frodo are also my safe bets for a podium, but the third spot is pretty open. If Marino has a good race he has a good shot at the podium, but Frederik will make it hard. With Nils Frommhold and Andi Böcherer there are two more German podium contenders – we may easily end up with a German podium! Andy Potts is the big American hope for a podium spot.

Safe Bets

  • Sebastian Kienle 51% (1-1)
  • Jan Frodeno 44% (2-1)

Knocking on the Door

  • Marino Vanhoenacker 34% (2-1)
  • Nils Frommhold 29% (3-1)
  • Frederik Van Lierde 28% (3-1)
  • Andi Böcherer 27% (3-1)
  • Andy Potts 17% (5-1)

Outside Chances

  • Clemente Alonso 13% (7-1)
  • Brent MacMahon 13% (7-1)
  • Ivan Rana 8% (12-1)
  • Ronnie Schildknecht 8% (12-1)
  • Bas Diederen 6% (17-1)
  • Andreas Raelert 6% (17-1)
  • Jordan Rapp 4% (24-1)
  • Timothy O’Donnell 4% (27-1)
  • Ben Hoffmann 3% (31-3)

(Photo: Sebi and Frodo after the 70.3 Championships in Zell am See, Credit: Joern Pollex/Getty Images for Ironman)

This is an excerpt from my free “Kona Rating Report” – 150+ pages with tons of information about the Kona Pro races!

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