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Challenge Wanaka 2015 – Analyzing Results

Wanaka

Course Rating

Dougal Bike

Compared to the regular conditions in Wanaka, the swim and the bike ride were pretty quick and resulted in two new course records: 45:33 by Dylan for the swim and 4:30:51 by Dougal Allen (pictured on the right) for the bike. Maybe the athletes paid for it on the run which was pretty slow. Overall Wanaka continues to be one of the slowest courses on the Pro circuit with a new course rating of -5:30.

Male Race Results

After his  trademark fast swim (even though it was a new course record, it was actually slower than expected!), Dylan McNeice continued to be in the lead for the rest of the race. While he quickly distanced the good swimmers, Dougal Allen made up most of his more than 17 minutes deficit after the swim, and they were within a few seconds of each other after T2. Dylan (pictured on the bottom) then needed a race-best 3-hours-flat marathon to win by less than three minutes over Dougal. Courtney Ogden took the last spot on the podium.

Dylan Run

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to expected
1 Dylan McNeice NZL 00:45:33 04:47:13 03:00:29 08:37:14 -25:45
2 Dougal Allan NZL 01:02:41 04:30:51 03:03:08 08:40:06 -22:17
3 Courtney Ogden AUS 00:50:56 04:50:51 03:02:59 08:49:46 -03:03
4 Carl Read NZL 00:50:32 04:55:21 03:00:59 08:50:47 -20:21
5 Braden Currie NZL 00:50:01 04:57:12 03:05:09 08:56:11 n/a
6 Michael Fox AUS 00:48:18 04:58:47 03:11:38 09:02:58 n/a
7 Chris Sanson NZL 00:56:47 04:53:35 03:08:54 09:03:18 -37:22
8 Luke Martin AUS 00:50:40 04:58:13 03:11:40 09:05:47 00:15
9 Joel Jameson GBR 01:01:38 04:54:32 03:06:58 09:07:14 02:56
10 Petr Vabrousek CZE 00:56:46 05:05:18 03:20:40 09:29:19 17:31
11 Marcus Hultgren SWE 00:56:40 05:12:46 03:17:53 09:31:32 -28:59
12 Matt Burton AUS 00:53:02 04:50:32 03:58:54 09:47:23 55:07
13 Benjamin Williams USA 00:53:08 05:23:34 03:33:30 09:55:12 43:09
14 Thijs Hubber NZL 00:50:48 05:36:58 03:52:14 10:25:28 n/a
Matt Randall NZL 00:58:54 04:56:01 DNF
Keegan Williams NZL 00:50:45 DNF

Womens Podium

Female Race Results

Gina Crawford put on a dominating performance, putting up the race-best times in all three legs, reclaiming the title she lost to Candice Hammond last year and winning Challenge Wanaka for the sixth time. Her PurplePatch training colleague Laura Siddall finished second in her second IM-distance race, with Michelle Bremer taking the third spot. (The photo on the right shows Michelle, Gina and Laura from left to right.)

Simone Maier finished in fourth place just one week after finishing New Zealand’s „Coast to Coast“ race in second place – a performance as remarkable as Braden Currie finishing fifth on the men’s side after winning Coast to Coast the week before.

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to expected
1 Gina Crawford NZL 00:50:55 05:12:39 03:22:25 09:31:51 -04:17
2 Laura Siddall GBR 00:57:13 05:12:44 03:28:43 09:43:46 -11:46
3 Michelle Bremer NZL 00:56:49 05:16:44 03:34:28 09:52:16 -05:52
4 Simone Maier GER 01:05:12 05:26:32 03:29:02 10:05:58 00:10
5 Charisa Wernick USA 00:59:24 05:45:24 03:28:37 10:18:54 08:27
6 Tracy Douglas AUS 01:05:13 05:31:31 03:39:23 10:21:20 04:14
7 Larisa Marsh NZL 00:58:46 05:32:28 04:01:43 10:38:31 23:13
8 Katya Meyers USA 01:06:17 05:31:15 04:14:49 10:56:54 20:14
9 Kristin Lemos USA 00:59:42 06:07:15 03:57:39 11:11:44 1:10:57
Jessica Fleming AUS 00:58:42 05:19:19 DNF
Christie Sym AUS 00:56:31 05:26:51 DNF

Photo Credits: Getty Images, 2015 (through Challenge Wanaka)

Depth in Women’s Field – Changes over the Years

Late last year, I’ve looked at data concerning the depth of the women’s field and comparing that to the depth of the men’s field. (If you haven’t read it yet, please check out my post “Women’s Field as Deep as Men’s?“.) I have to admit that I was a bit surprised that I wasn’t finding any noticeable difference in recent year’s. My first interest into triathlon was in the late 80’s when Paula Newby-Fraser was such a dominating force in the sport that she seemed to win almost at will and if there was only an Erin Baker on a good day who was able to challenge her.

This led me to have a look at some older data – maybe the depth of the women’s field has improved over time? I wasn’t able to produce the same type of graphs that I used in my previous post as I just don’t have the data. However, I was able to find a list of the top 10 finishers on Slowtwitch (Top Ironman Hawaii Finishers Archive) that I used as my basis for a similar analysis. As a measure for the depth of the field I am using the Top 10 degradation, defined as the cumulative time the Top 10 finishers were behind the winner in each year (for example, in 2014 the Top10 men were 1h24min behind the winner, while the women were 2h01min behind). In order to reflect the different winning times for men and women, I’m calculating the percentage of this sum of the winner’s time (still using 2014 data, 17% for the men, 22.4% for the women). Please note that this measure doesn’t reflect the different field sizes (that lead to increased time differences) – meaning that a similar depth of field would have a larger Top 10 degradation for the women.

Here’s the graph showing the development of the Top10 degradation in Kona over the years for the men (blue line) and women (red line):

Top10Analysis

In order to give context to the time periods, I’ve added some of the biggest Kona winners. Here’s my interpretation of this data:

  • Dave Scott was dominating Kona early on, his six wins were between 1980 and 1988. He was head and shoulders above most of the other Kona athletes and the degradation is at the highest level we have for the men.
    At this time, the degradation for the women is actually lower than for the men – but this is probably more a sign that even the women’s  top racers were still finding their way in this new sport.
  • This changes with the start of winning streak by Paula Newby-Fraser (her first Kona win was in 1986, her eighth and last was in 1996), she was dominating at similar levels to Dave Scott.
  • After Dave and Paula, Mark Allen and Natascha Badmann both won six Kona crowns, but they didn’t dominate the fields as much. (This probably makes their winning streaks even more impressive as they managed to win a lot of close races.)
    In the early 2000s, the Top10 degradation numbers were pretty much the same between the men and women.
  • This changed for a while when Chrissie Wellington won her four Kona titles. In 2009 her third win displayed a domination over the rest of the field comparable to what Paula showed.
  • In the last few years, the Top 10 degradation between men and women is back at very similar numbers.

My conclusion of this data: In the early years of our sport, it took some time to develop a decent depth of the field. The men’s field improved first (until the late 80s – at the end of the Dave Scott era), and the women’s field took about ten years longer (until the late 90s – the Natascha Badmann era). Certainly, things have changed a lot since the days of Paula Newby-Fraser – it now takes an absolutely dominating figure such as Chrissie Wellington to „disrupt“ the numbers. Chrissie pushed the women’s field another big step forward, and these days the Top10 degradation indicates no different depth between the men’s and women’s field.

Women For Tri – An Encouraging Start

Ironman and LifeTime Fitness have started the „Women For Tri“ initiative, which was established to grow female participation in triathlon. They have announced an advisory board which met for the first time at the Ironman headquarter in Florida on Wednesday, February 4th.

WomenForTri
(Photo from a Tweet by Christopher Stadler)

There have been quite a few reports of the meeting (for example an article by board member Julia Polloreno on the triathlete website), and a lot of my initial reservations about the initiative have been alleviated:

  1. While the meetings are of course not open to the public, a lot of information about the meeting has been reported. I find it very encouraging that the board seems to be interested in an open discussion of the issues at hand, and isn’t dealing behind closed doors.
  2. While the main mission of the board is to “identify the actual barriers to entry for women in the sport“, they have also discussed the related issue of equal qualifying spots for professional men and women in Kona.

There was a lot of pressure on social media encouraging the board to take up issue #2, and I’m glad that they are engaging in the discussion. I also think that granting equal slots will have a positive effect on improving female participation in general.

In the spirit of public discussion, I’d like to have a closer look at the arguments presented for continuing with the disparate slot count. In her post Julia reports on statements by Ironman CEO Andrew Messick:

His position has been that there are 50 pro men who are competitive enough to factor into the Kona race dynamic and have a legitimate shot at a top finish at the world championship. As an example, he cited pro Ronnie Schildknecht, who was at the bottom of the KPR standings heading into Kona last year but still finished 12th.

While I was happy to see Ronnie qualify and race well in Kona, he is not representative of the male athletes that qualified at the bottom of the KPR: The last 11 qualifiers were Dan Halksworth (DNF), Chris McDonald (DNF), Elliot Holtham (35th), TJ Tollakson (DNF), Harry Wiltshire (29th), Richie Cunningham (DNF), Chris Brader (28th), Justin Daerr (26th), Ronnie Schildknecht (12th), Andreas Raelert (36th and last finisher), and Paul Ambrose (30th). Of course there are some examples of people qualifying at the bottom of the KPR that are still doing well in Kona – the most notable this year was Ben Hoffmann who qualified as 29th male in July (so he wouldn’t have qualified in the women’s field) who finished 2nd in Kona.

The unspoken implication of this argument is that the additional women that would have qualified if there were more slots wouldn’t have played a role in Kona. I don’t agree with that sentiment – so let’s look at some of the women who probably would have qualified with extra slots. The inclusion of Angela Naeth, Amy Marsh, Sophie Goos, Rebekah Keat, Eimear Mullan, or Laura Bennett would clearly have had an impact on the Top 10 finishers this year! A similar example to Ben Hoffman in this year’s men’s field is Rachel Joyce in 2013 when she barely qualified as #34 in the KPR but continued to finish 2nd in Kona.

He says that the pro women’s field isn’t yet deep enough to justify 50 slots.

I have addressed this perception in my recent post „Women’s Field as Deep as Men’s?“. I was able to demonstrate that there is not perceptible difference between the depth of men and women – at least up to #35 where men and women are on a level playing field. ( An analysis up to #50 would require 50 women in Kona.) Repeating that women lack the depth doesn’t make the statement any more convincing.

[G]iven the rigidly static number of available Kona qualifying slots, adding 15 to the pro women’s field would require taking those slots away from other people, potentially the pro men.

This is another argument that is frequently cited: „Kona is full“ (I always hear an undertone of „so there is nothing we can do for the Pro women”). I find that hard to believe:

  • For Kona 2015 qualifying Ironman has added ten more slots by giving the winners of the five Regional Championships a direct Kona slot.
  • Whenever there are new Ironman races, they always come with a sizable number of Kona slots. Most recent examples are IM Muskoka (50 slots), IM Netherlands (50 slots) and IM Vichy (50 slots).
  • Andrew Messick himself has said that it’s not space on the pier that limits the field size in Kona:
    “The big challenge that we have in Kona is not in fact the size of the pier, which is what most people think, but rather the extreme concentration of gifted athletes in that particular race. It creates problems unique to Kona. Last year we had 1,100 athletes get out of the water in a 15-minute period, between 55 minutes and 1:10. That concentration of really strong swimmers, all of whom can ride a bike, is our operational limiter.”
    Adding 15 Pro women won’t have any impact on the congestion in the men’s age group race.
  • Even if the number of slots has reached it’s maximum, Ironman isn’t helpless: It is simply their choice whether to assign 15 slots to the a new race, an existing race or the Pro women. I don’t believe that the only thing on their mind is the less than $10.000 they make from age grouper slots.

Overall, I am encouraged by the first meeting of the „Women for Tri“ board, their discussion and the information that is being shared about it. I hope that the open dialog continues and that there will be changes that help increase participation of women in triathlon while removing unequal treatment of women in our sport.

Challenge Wanaka 2015 (Feb 22nd) – Predictions

Wanaka

Previous Winners

Year Male Winner Time Female Winner Time
2007 Luke Dragstra (CAN) 08:54:17 Belinda Granger (AUS) 09:38:26
2008 Marc Pschebizin (GER) 08:47:49 Gina Crawford (NZL) 09:33:46
2009 Chris McDonald (AUS) 08:37:41 Gina Crawford (NZL) 09:28:27
2010 Richard Ussher (NZL) 08:34:41 Gina Crawford (NZL) 09:28:57
2011 Jamie Whyte (NZL) 09:03:53 Belinda Granger (AUS) 10:26:17
2012 Aaron Farlow (AUS) 08:41:53 Gina Crawford (NZL) 09:44:06
2013 Dylan McNeice (NZL) 08:51:18 Gina Crawford (NZL) 09:24:31
2014 Dylan McNeice (NZL) 08:38:48 Candice Hammond (NZL) 09:33:54

Last Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Dylan McNeice NZL 00:46:25 04:51:26 02:56:58 08:38:48
2 Richard Ussher NZL 00:53:16 04:53:18 02:58:57 08:49:49
3 Dougal Allan NZL 01:03:42 04:45:22 03:01:03 08:54:37

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Candice Hammond NZL 01:03:50 05:09:56 03:15:38 09:33:54
2 Gina Crawford NZL 00:53:20 05:20:18 03:21:51 09:41:08
3 Simone Maier GER 01:05:43 05:21:40 03:15:32 09:48:50

Course Records

Leg Gender Record Athlete Date
Total overall 08:34:41 Richard Ussher 2010-01-16
Swim overall 00:46:25 Dylan McNeice 2014-01-18
Bike overall 04:42:26 Richard Ussher 2010-01-16
Run overall 02:48:04 Marc Pschebizin 2008-01-19
Total female 09:24:31 Gina Crawford 2013-01-19
Swim female 00:50:01 Gina Crawford 2008-01-19
Bike female 05:08:30 Gina Crawford 2013-01-19
Run female 03:08:59 Rebekah Keat 2010-01-16

Course Rating

The Course Rating for Challenge Wanaka is – 04:39.

Race Adjustments for Challenge Wanaka

Year Adjustment Swim Adj. Bike Adj. Run Adj. # of Athletes Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating
2007 03:46 00:37 -07:25 04:57 6 03:46 00:37 -07:25 04:57
2008 -00:03 01:09 -10:25 01:30 10 01:51 00:53 -08:55 03:13
2009 04:05 -03:38 -01:57 05:27 11 02:36 -00:37 -06:36 03:58
2010 00:21 -01:49 -01:14 02:57 13 02:02 -00:55 -05:15 03:43
2011 -26:44 -02:46 -22:35 -03:33 13 -03:43 -01:17 -08:43 02:16
2012 -07:48 -01:13 -07:39 -03:16 15 -04:24 -01:17 -08:32 01:20
2013 -06:43 -05:42 -09:09 02:38 13 -04:44 -01:55 -08:38 01:31
2014 -04:08 -01:06 -03:01 00:29 7 -04:39 -01:49 -07:56 01:24

Male Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Overall
1 6 Courtney Ogden AUS 08:42:18 08:40:44 00:51:52 04:49:27 02:55:58 61
2 1 Dylan McNeice NZL 08:47:07 08:51:11 00:46:00 04:54:40 03:01:27 111
3 4 Matt Burton AUS 08:48:22 08:38:52 00:54:45 04:46:21 03:02:16 (58)
4 2 Dougal Allan NZL 08:57:46 08:50:31 01:04:15 04:48:59 02:59:31 (108)
5 7 Keegan Williams NZL 08:57:49 08:56:06 00:53:34 04:55:19 03:03:55 (130)
6 5 Joel Jameson GBR 08:57:57 08:51:49 00:58:41 04:58:21 02:55:55 115
7 9 Petr Vabrousek CZE 09:01:08 08:58:49 00:56:47 04:57:56 03:01:25 145
8 10 Luke Martin AUS 09:03:03 08:53:05 00:54:05 05:02:07 03:01:51 (125)
9 3 Carl Read NZL 09:04:38 08:59:02 00:54:05 05:05:42 02:59:51 148
10 14 Benjamin Williams USA 09:08:38 08:58:28 00:54:04 05:10:11 02:59:23 (142)
11 16 Eneko Elosegui ESP 09:27:48 09:28:08 00:59:29 04:58:40 03:24:40 263
12 15 Chris Sanson NZL 09:31:18 09:28:17 00:56:56 05:16:25 03:12:57 (264)
13 11 Marcus Hultgren SWE 09:58:28 09:47:29 01:00:46 05:10:48 03:41:55 (345)
14 17 Matt Randall NZL 10:00:18 09:49:17 01:05:35 05:07:47 03:41:56 (351)
8 Braden Currie New n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
12 Ben Logan NZL n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
13 Thijs Hubber New n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
18 Michael Fox Aus n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)

Female Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Overall
1 50 Gina Crawford NZL 09:25:12 09:23:05 00:53:09 05:18:18 03:08:45 16
2 51 Simone Maier GER 09:51:42 09:51:59 01:06:14 05:24:56 03:15:32 83
3 59 Laura Siddall GBR 09:53:06 09:42:13 01:00:36 05:25:59 03:21:31 (60)
4 53 Michelle Bremer NZL 09:54:50 09:44:38 01:00:46 05:24:42 03:24:21 64
5 57 Kristin Lemos USA 09:56:25 09:45:28 01:03:27 05:26:38 03:21:20 (67)
6 60 Charisa Wernick USA 09:59:46 09:56:20 01:00:48 05:35:45 03:18:13 (98)
7 52 Jessica Fleming AUS 10:01:02 09:50:05 01:02:50 05:25:16 03:27:56 (79)
8 54 Christie Sym AUS 10:05:24 09:56:54 01:00:19 05:29:57 03:30:08 (99)
9 58 Tracy Douglas AUS 10:09:53 10:02:56 01:07:12 05:28:00 03:29:41 109
10 55 Larisa Marsh NZL 10:10:47 10:00:44 01:02:30 05:33:23 03:29:53 (103)
11 56 Katya Meyers USA 10:25:21 10:21:41 01:10:24 05:32:07 03:37:50 (148)

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

  • Courtney Ogden: 44% (1-1)
  • Dylan McNeice: 23% (3-1)
  • Matt Burton: 17% (5-1)
  • Joel Jameson: 6% (15-1)
  • Keegan Williams: 4% (23-1)
  • Petr Vabrousek: 3% (35-1)

Female Race Participants

  • Gina Crawford: 73% (1-1)
  • Simone Maier: 13% (7-1)
  • Michelle Bremer: 5% (19-1)
  • Charisa Wernick: 4% (22-1)
  • Laura Siddall: 2% (60-1)

Preliminary Startlists for Challenge Dubai 2015 (February 27th)

Challenge Dubai

Here’s a look at the preliminary startlists for Challenge Dubai (also showing how the participants did in Challenge Bahrain last December). Dubai has a prize purse of $300.000 paying ten deep, with each winner earning $65.000.

Update Feb21st: Unfortunately, there were a few withdrawals from the race – most notably Andreas Dreitz, Jan Frodeno and Mel Hauschildt. But there are also some interesting additions to the field, such as Ivan Rana, Richie Cunningham or Will Clarke.

Male Race Participants

There are quite a lot of notable additions to the Bahrain field, among them are Javier Gomez, Jan Frodeno (who was a DNS last December), Terenzo Bozzone, Luke McKenzie, Andy Potts, and Bart Aeronauts. From the Bahrain Top 10 only Tim Don, Jeff Symonds and Luke Bell are not returning – probably Dubai does not fit well into their season planning.

Bib Name Nation Bahrain Finish
1 Raelert, Michael GER 1
2 Dreitz, Andreas GER 2
3 Reed, Timothy AUS 3
4 Cunnama, James ZAF 6
5 Llanos, Eneko ESP 5
6 Cigana, Massimo ITA 8
7 Van Berkel, Tim AUS 10
8 Gomez, Javier ESP
9 Frodeno, Jan GER  
10 Bozzone, Terenzo NZL
11 McKenzie, Luke AUS
12 Potts, Andy USA
13 Jacobs, Pete AUS 26
14 Aernouts, Bart BEL
15 Griffin, Leon AUS
16 Kahlefeldt, Brad AUS 11
17 Nicholls, Ritchie GBR DNF
18 Petraeus, Rasmus DEN 31
19 Ambrose, Paul GBR
20 Schramm, Till GER 23
21 Weiss, Michael AUT
22 O’Donnell, Timothy USA DNF
23 Bittner, Per GER
24 Passuello, Domenico ITA
25 Hoffman, Ben USA  
26 Fachbach, Markus GER
27 Ospaly, Filip CZE
28 Reichel, Horst GER
29 Wild, Ruedi SUI
30 Butterfield, Tyler BMU DNF
31 Gambles, Joe AUS
32 Clavel, Maurice GER
33 Wurtele, Trevor CAN
34 Molinari, Giulio ITA
35 Sudrie, Sylvain FRA  
36 Baertsch, Mauro SUI 22
37 Banti, Herve MCO
38 Brandt-Joergensen, Niels DEN
39 Cartmell, Fraser GBR
40 Csoke, Balazs HUN
41 Duncan, Robert USA
42 Fernandez, Nicolas FRA
43 Godart, Olivier LUX 19
44 Halksworth, Daniel GBR
45 Hryhoryeu, Mikita POL
46 Jensen, Martin DEN
47 Kastelein, Nick AUS  
48 Knossalla, Matthias GER
49 Kueng, Manuel SUI
50 Lange, Patrick DEU
51 Liebelt, Markus DEU
52 Mcnamee, David GBR
53 Murphy, Michael AUS
54 Nikitin, Evgeniy RUS
55 Oriet, Gilian SUI
56 Plese, David SLO 20
57 Rix, Joshua AUS
58 Ruenz, Michael GER
59 Schreiner, Frank DEU
60 Skipper, Joe GBR
61 Skipworth, Todd AUS
62 Van Berkel, Jan SUI
63 Watson, Eric AUS 18
64 Wojt, Lukasz POL
65 Wyss, Rafael SUI
66 Rana, Ivan ESP
67 Matthews, Paul AUS
68 Cunningham, Richie AUS
69 Del Corral, Victor ESP
110 Amorelli, Victor BRA
111 Steen Ollesen, Allan DEN
112 Franklin, Matt NZL
113 Petersen-Bach, Jens DEN
114 Sowinski, Milosz POL
115 Clarke, Will GBR

Female Race Participants

As for the men, there are great additions to the Bahrain field, Daniela Ryf, Yvonne Van Vlerken, Leanda Cave, Michelle Vesterby, Heather Wurtele, Anja Beranek , Eva Wutti and Svenja Bazlen are some of the added contenders for one of the money spots. From the Bahrain Top 10 Rachel Joyce, Angela Naeth, and Jodie Stimpson are not returning.

Bib Name Nation Bahrain Finish
70 Frederiksen, Helle DEN 1
71 Swallow, Jodie GBR 3
72 Luxford, Annabel AUS 4
73 Hauschildt, Melissa AUS 6
74 Steffen, Caroline SUI 7
75 Pedersen, Camilla DEN 9
76 Kessler, Meredith USA 10
77 Ryf, Daniela SUI
78 Vodickova, Radka CZE DNF
79 Van Vlerken, Yvonne NED
80 Cave, Leanda GBR
81 Vesterby, Michelle DEN
82 Wurtele, Heather CAN
83 Beranek, Anja GER
84 Wutti, Eva AUT
85 Casey, Deirdre IRL 14
86 Lester, Carrie AUS
87 Bazlen, Svenja DEU
88 Blazevic, Svetlana SCG
89 Brandon, Lauren USA
90 Carvallo, Valentina CHI  
91 Cheetham, Susie GBR
92 Duke, Dimity-Lee AUS
93 Ferreira, Caio BRA
94 Hector, Alice GBR
95 Kaye, Alicia USA
96 Nilsson, Jenny SWE
97 Saemmler, Daniela GER
98 Stevens, Alena SVK
99 Reed, Lucie CZE
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