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Challenge Taiwan 2014 – Analyzing Results

Race Conditions

Conditions in Taiwan were pretty quick this year: The adjustment of 20:06 was about as fast as IM Melbourne, mainly on the strength of a relatively fast bike.

Male Race Results

As usual, Dylan McNeice stormed ahead on the swim and bike. The race got exciting on the run, when Fredrik Croneborg and Jason Shortis almost caught him towards the end: The Top 3 were within less than two minutes.

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to expected
1 Dylan McNeice NZL 00:46:11 04:29:02 03:03:40 08:23:44 -04:54
2 Fredrik Croneborg SWE 00:52:26 04:31:33 02:56:09 08:24:22 -07:49
3 Jason Shortis AUS 00:55:37 04:26:56 02:57:39 08:25:32 -08:54
4 Till Schramm GER 00:55:28 04:27:01 03:06:10 08:33:24 -20:57
5 Nick Baldwin SEY 00:55:02 04:27:32 03:11:12 08:38:56 06:05
6 Eneko Elosegui ESP 00:55:29 04:27:06 03:24:28 08:51:41 -21:31
7 Petr Vabrousek CZE 00:55:34 04:42:19 03:11:29 08:55:03 17:24
8 Mao Yung Yang TWN 00:52:28 04:53:10 03:23:50 09:16:07 n/a
9 Eric Watson AUS 00:49:38 04:51:41 03:39:27 09:27:48 n/a
10 Brad Wauer AUS 00:52:31 04:49:21 04:05:16 09:52:24 n/a
11 Guy Crawford NZL 00:49:53 04:53:34 DNF
12 Matt Burton AUS 00:55:30 DNF
13 Andrej Vistica CRO 00:55:43 04:41:49 DNF

Female Race Results

Britta Martin had a good day, being „in the green“ for all three legs, and finished almost 30 minutes ahead of Iron-rookie Jessica Fleming. Belinda Granger ended her IM career with finish #50 and the last spot on the podium.

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to expected
1 Britta Martin NZL 00:58:21 04:54:37 03:04:16 09:02:23 -17:19
2 Jessica Fleming AUS 01:02:28 04:57:36 03:26:30 09:31:25 n/a
3 Belinda Granger AUS 00:55:29 05:04:46 03:40:11 09:45:06 26:04
4 Kathrin Walther GER 01:02:25 05:20:16 03:45:04 10:13:16 -08:36
5 Stef Puszka AUS 01:04:13 05:29:50 03:33:37 10:13:42 n/a
6 Hillary Biscay USA 00:53:23 05:49:29 04:13:06 11:11:23 1:26:22
7 Jodie Scott AUS 00:57:41 05:38:01 05:05:18 11:50:09 1:35:17
8 Kate Bevilaqua AUS 00:54:23 04:58:45 DNF
9 Yasuko Miyazaki JPN 01:03:08 DNF

IM Texas 2014 – Unofficial Startlist

Note: The official start list is now out, and I have put up my predictions post: Ironman Texas 2014 (May 17th) – Predictions.

Update Apr 20th: I was pointed to a list of starters on the Ironman Texas website that also contains the Pros. (Thanks, Brenda!) I expect to see a few changes until the final Pro list is released, but it is a good starting point. I’ve added some additional information and updates from other sources.

I’ve asked around to figure out which Pros will be starting at IM Texas in mid-May. There isn’t an official start list yet as the Pro registration deadline is late April. Thanks to all those who responded, here is my „unofficial list“. (Please note that this information is not always „first hand“ so there may be some changes to the list.)

Any additional information is appreciated!

Male Participants

 

  • Paul Amey
  • Blake Becker
  • Chris Bodreaux (not on official list)
  • Nathan Buttrick
  • Balazs Csokes (not on official list)
  • James Cunnama
  • Matthew Curbeau
  • Justin Daerr
  • Bas Diederen
  • Ed Donner
  • Andy Gardner
  • Chris Gebhardt
  • Thomas Gerlach
  • Matt Hanson
  • Chris Hauth
  • Chad Holderbaum
  • Pete Jacobs
  • Jose Jeuland
  • Peter Kotland
  • Mark Livesey
  • Jim Lubinski (not on official list)
  • Douglas MacLean
  • Jozsef Major
  • Brandon Marsh
  • Chris McDonald  (not on official list)
  • Diego Montecelli
  • Jordan Rapp
  • Matthew Russell
  • Sean Sullivan
  • Swen Sundberg
  • Robert Wade

 

Female Participants

 

  • Rahel Bellinga
  • Jocelyn Cornman
  • Amber Ferreira
  • Julia Gajer (not on official list)
  • April Gellatly
  • Jennie Hansen
  • Christina Jackson
  • Rachel Jastrebsky
  • Amy Javens
  • Heather Jorris
  • Heather Leiggi
  • Cindy Lewis
  • Lindsay Ludlow
  • Jessica Meyers
  • Sarah Piampiano
  • Olesya Prystayko
  • Tami Ritchie
  • Suzy Serpico
  • Beth Shutt
  • Bree Wee
  • Kristina Wiegand
  • Kelly Williamson
  • Eva Wutti

Not racing

These are athletes that have been named to race Texas, but have confirmed on Twitter that they actually won’t:

  • Kim Schwabenbauer (on the list, but not starting)

Ironman Australia 2014 (May 4th) – Predictions

Please let me know your top picks on IM-Predictions! We’re already at round #5 for this season, but there will be a lot more chances to score more points until Kona!

Previous Winners

Year Male Winner Time Female Winner Time
2005 Chris McCormack (AUS) 08:25:44 Lisa Bentley (CAN) 09:13:20
2006 Chris McCormack (AUS) 08:20:42 Lisa Bentley (CAN) 09:19:44
2007 Patrick Vernay (NCL) 08:21:49 Rebekah Keat (AUS) 09:12:59
2008 Patrick Vernay (NCL) 08:31:32 Chrissie Wellington (GBR) 09:03:54
2009 Patrick Vernay (NCL) 08:24:53 Chrissie Wellington (GBR) 08:57:10
2010 Patrick Vernay (NCL) 08:23:54 Carrie Lester (AUS) 09:23:46
2011 Pete Jacobs (AUS) 08:29:28 Caroline Steffen (SUI) 09:29:54
2012 Paul Ambrose (GBR) 08:17:38 Michelle Gailey (AUS) 09:34:57
2013 Luke Bell (AUS) 08:30:23 Rebecca Hoschke (AUS) 09:34:55

Last Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Luke Bell AUS 00:47:25 04:46:02 02:53:48 08:30:23
2 Patrick Evoe USA 00:53:20 04:51:16 02:54:58 08:42:58
3 Luke Whitmore AUS 00:52:49 05:08:23 02:58:37 09:03:30

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Rebecca Hoschke AUS 00:57:05 05:15:01 03:18:46 09:34:55
2 Ange Castle AUS 01:01:19 05:12:06 03:23:19 09:41:38
3 Nicole Ward AUS 00:54:24 05:38:08 03:16:38 09:52:31

Course Records

Leg Gender Record Athlete Date
Total overall 08:17:38 Paul Ambrose 2012-04-29
Swim overall 00:44:32 Adrian Cominotto 2010-03-28
Bike overall 04:31:25 Paul Ambrose 2012-04-29
Run overall 02:47:20 Tim Van Berkel 2012-04-29
Total female 08:57:10 Chrissie Wellington 2009-04-05
Swim female 00:48:42 Melissa Ashton 2006-05-11
Bike female 05:00:57 Carrie Lester 2010-03-28
Run female 03:01:06 Lisa Bentley 2006-05-11

Course Rating

The Course Rating for IM Australia is 04:51.

Race Adjustments for IM Australia

Year Adjustment Swim Adj. Bike Adj. Run Adj. # of Athletes Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating
2005 n/a n/a n/a n/a 0 n/a n/a n/a n/a
2006 01:48 02:09 -07:42 00:32 16 01:48 02:09 -07:42 00:32
2007 04:10 01:52 -04:43 01:16 24 02:59 02:01 -06:13 00:54
2008 00:09 -00:01 -03:03 00:57 20 02:02 01:20 -05:09 00:55
2009 02:25 -00:18 -04:23 02:39 24 02:08 00:56 -04:58 01:21
2010 07:54 04:53 03:21 00:12 14 03:17 01:43 -03:18 01:07
2011 02:18 02:14 -02:29 01:54 13 03:07 01:48 -03:10 01:15
2012 06:09 02:21 01:08 04:11 9 03:33 01:53 -02:33 01:40
2013 14:00 01:35 -03:28 08:01 8 04:51 01:51 -02:40 02:28

KPR points and Prize Money

IM Australia has 2000 KPR points for the winner. It has a total prize purse of 40k$.

There are not too many athletes that are racing with a focus on KPR points. Luke Bell and Peter Robertson are probably the only two athletes that were seriously making plans to race Kona this year, but both are only at around 1.000 points and would need a win (and some more points from 70.3 races) to have a chance for a July cutoff.

On the women’s side, Mel Hauschildt is an automatic qualifier as the 70.3 champion, so she just has to validate her slot by finishing. Lisa Marangon (currently at 2.860) is the best placed athlete in the KPR, she would also need a win to make it to Kona.

Male Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating Rank
1 5 Denis Chevrot FRA 08:34:17 08:38:57 00:47:28 04:45:44 02:55:01 (38)
2 4 Peter Robertson AUS 08:39:22 08:44:05 00:45:57 04:37:01 03:03:53 (54)
3 9 Nick Baldwin SEY 08:47:23 08:52:10 00:53:11 04:48:30 03:03:24 87
4 1 Luke Bell AUS 08:48:05 08:52:53 00:48:19 04:44:11 03:15:29 94
5 8 Jason Shortis AUS 08:48:27 08:53:15 00:54:00 04:51:08 03:01:47 97
6 2 Paul Ambrose GBR 08:51:27 08:56:16 00:49:02 04:44:42 03:18:14 109
7 3 Matty White AUS 08:53:32 08:58:23 00:51:53 04:50:33 03:12:46 122
8 6 Luke Whitmore AUS 08:57:51 09:02:44 00:54:14 05:01:13 03:01:17 144
9 7 Elliot Holtham CAN 08:59:34 09:04:28 00:53:04 04:49:19 03:09:31 (150)
10 10 Simon Cochrane NZL 09:05:08 09:10:05 00:53:01 05:03:05 03:07:52 169
11 12 Jon Woods NZL 09:42:56 09:48:13 00:56:27 05:05:25 03:35:51 308
12 13 Dan Brown PHI 09:58:01 10:03:27 01:03:20 05:39:36 03:50:01 360
11 Darren Jenkins USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)

Female Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating Rank
1 22 Michelle Gailey AUS 09:42:11 09:47:28 00:54:18 05:36:34 03:18:37 54
2 23 Lisa Marangon AUS 09:49:56 09:55:17 00:54:33 05:17:58 03:37:51 68
3 24 Melanie Burke NZL 09:51:43 09:57:05 01:07:51 05:22:07 03:23:31 74
4 21 Hillary Biscay USA 10:04:31 10:10:00 00:52:18 05:34:25 03:36:49 98
5 25 Tamsyn Hayes NZL 10:04:49 10:10:18 00:58:51 05:20:39 03:42:43 100
6 26 Dimity-Lee Duke AUS 10:38:12 10:44:00 01:05:11 05:36:51 03:48:06 (142)
7 27 Megumi Shigaki JPN 11:00:23 11:06:23 00:59:36 05:43:30 04:15:22 149
20 Melissa Hauschildt AUS n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

Defending champion Luke Bell has had a good 2013 season (wins in Australia and Mont Tremblant) that don’t end well: A frustrating 31st in Kona, then a DNF in Western Australia and a knee injury. He’s hopefully fully recovered, but not the top pick. This spot goes to Paul Ambrose but he also has few DNFs lately. Other contenders are „newcomers“ (to the IM distance) Denis Chevrot, Peter Robertson and Nick Baldwin, and the „old hands“ Jason Shortis and Matty White.

  • Paul Ambrose: 35% (2-1)
  • Luke Bell: 22% (4-1)
  • Denis Chevrot: 18% (5-1)
  • Peter Robertson: 8% (12-1)
  • Jason Shortis: 7% (12-1)
  • Matty White: 7% (13-1)
  • Nick Baldwin: 2% (44-1)

Female Race Participants

The „headliner“ in the women’s race is Mel Hauschildt. She is racing her first Ironman, so it is hard to estimate how her performance will turn out. She has taken some time top get ready for the race, so if nothing bad happens during the race, she should win comfortably as I can see no one that could challenge her on a good bike and run day. (I’m putting her chances for a win at 50%, not based on previous IM results but based on how good of an athlete she as proven to be on the shorter distances.) However, if she does run into problems, there are a number of athletes more than eager to win an Ironman race.

  • Melissa Hauschildt: 50% (1-1)
  • Michelle Gailey: 22% (4-1)
  • Lisa Marangon: 18% (5-1)
  • Melanie Burke: 5% (19-1)
  • Hillary Biscay: 4% (24-1)

Challenge Taiwan 2014 (April 19th) – Predictions

Previous Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Dylan McNeice NZL 00:47:00 04:29:35 02:54:54 08:16:21
2 Georg Potrebitsch GER 00:52:19 04:28:40 03:01:46 08:27:06
3 Fredrik Croneborg SWE 00:56:20 04:34:57 02:52:33 08:28:28

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Belinda Granger AUS 01:01:16 04:55:34 03:21:10 09:23:15
2 Hillary Biscay USA 00:54:53 05:09:54 03:27:18 09:37:40
3 Kate Bevilaqua AUS 00:56:26 05:24:00 03:39:14 10:05:09

Course Records

Leg Gender Record Athlete Date
Total overall 08:16:21 Dylan McNeice 2013-05-04
Swim overall 00:47:00 Dylan McNeice 2013-05-04
Bike overall 04:28:40 Georg Potrebitsch 2013-05-04
Bike overall 04:28:40 Todd Skipworth 2013-05-04
Run overall 02:52:33 Fredrik Croneborg 2013-05-04
Total female 09:23:15 Belinda Granger 2013-05-04
Swim female 00:54:53 Hillary Biscay 2013-05-04
Bike female 04:55:34 Belinda Granger 2013-05-04
Run female 03:21:10 Belinda Granger 2013-05-04

Course Rating

The Course Rating for Challenge Taiwan is 09:36.

Race Adjustments for Challenge Taiwan

Year Adjustment Swim Adj. Bike Adj. Run Adj. # of Athletes Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating
2013 09:36 -04:41 12:29 05:45 12 09:36 -04:41 12:29 05:45

Male Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating Rank
1 1 Dylan McNeice NZL 08:38:00 08:47:23 00:44:58 04:51:08 03:06:43 65
2 5 Andrej Vistica CRO 08:39:31 08:48:56 00:53:50 04:43:34 03:03:09 73
3 2 Fredrik Croneborg SWE 08:41:30 08:50:57 00:52:09 04:56:10 02:59:00 81
4 6 Nick Baldwin SEY 08:42:42 08:52:10 00:53:11 04:48:30 03:03:24 89
5 7 Matt Burton AUS 08:43:14 08:52:43 00:54:22 04:38:56 03:07:31 (95)
6 13 Jason Shortis AUS 08:43:46 08:53:15 00:54:00 04:51:08 03:01:47 99
7 9 Petr Vabrousek CZE 08:48:00 08:57:34 00:54:52 04:52:49 03:03:21 116
8 3 Guy Crawford NZL 08:50:51 09:00:28 00:48:47 04:45:04 03:24:56 132
9 4 Matt Burgess NZL 09:09:44 09:19:41 00:49:56 04:49:27 03:24:39 (204)
10 12 Jaroslav Kovacic SLO 09:22:15 09:32:26 00:50:03 05:04:49 03:20:01 (247)
11 11 Eneko Elosegui ESP 09:22:47 09:32:59 00:59:52 05:00:10 03:25:28 248
12 14 Till Schramm GER 10:02:32 10:13:27 00:55:15 04:51:52 04:06:26 (384)
8 Mao Yung yang TWN n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
10 Brad Wauer AUS n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)

Female Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating Rank
1 52 Gina Crawford NZL 09:15:58 09:26:02 00:51:55 05:14:00 03:13:13 10
2 56 Britta Martin NZL 09:29:34 09:39:53 01:00:30 05:12:08 03:18:38 34
3 50 Belinda Granger AUS 09:30:28 09:40:48 00:54:05 05:10:52 03:30:12 37
4 61 Simone Maier GER 09:44:56 09:55:32 01:04:19 05:21:49 03:19:05 69
5 58 Kate Bevilaqua AUS 09:52:29 10:03:13 00:56:42 05:24:46 03:36:06 90
6 55 Yvette Grice GBR 09:53:06 10:03:51 00:55:41 05:36:08 03:24:01 92
7 51 Hillary Biscay USA 09:59:09 10:10:00 00:52:18 05:34:25 03:36:49 98
8 59 Yasuko Miyazaki JPN 10:23:32 10:34:50 01:00:29 05:54:05 03:38:53 135
9 53 Jodie Scott AUS 10:29:53 10:41:18 00:56:44 05:39:59 03:57:53 (140)
10 54 Kathrin Walther GER 10:33:13 10:44:41 00:59:10 05:37:54 03:52:20 (142)
60 Stef Puszka AUS n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
57 Jessica Fleming AUS n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

  • Dylan McNeice: 36% (2-1)
  • Fredrik Croneborg: 24% (3-1)
  • Jason Shortis: 12% (8-1)
  • Andrej Vistica: 12% (8-1)
  • Petr Vabrousek: 6% (16-1)
  • Matt Burton: 4% (22-1)
  • Nick Baldwin: 4% (24-1)
  • Guy Crawford: 2% (41-1)

Female Race Participants

  • Gina Crawford: 60% (1-1)
  • Britta Martin: 19% (4-1)
  • Belinda Granger: 15% (6-1)
  • Kate Bevilaqua: 2% (40-1)
  • Yvette Grice: 2% (60-1)

2014 KPR Observer

KPRTitle The Kona Pro Ranking is the system used to determine which Professional triathletes qualify for the Ironman World Championships in Kona. To make the KPR easier to follow and understand, I’ve set up the „2014 KPR Observer“. It consists of an Initial Information Package on the KPR in general and my projections for the cutoffs. During the season, I will send out EMail updates about who is already in, who is close to qualifying, how many slots are still open and updated estimates of where the cutoffs will occur.

More details can be found on the sales page at https://gum.co/2014KPR or in my info post on the KPR Observer.

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