Ironman Lanzarote 2016 (May 21st) – Predictions
Update May 13th: According to her blog, Jeanne Collonge won’t be able to race, she’s targeting IM France now. Also there are a number of athletes on the startlist for IM Texas, so we may see some late withdrawals in the days before the race.
Update May 18th: According BMC-Etixx Sports Director Ben De Wolf Romain Guillaume won’t start in Lanzarote but is focusing on IM Cairns instead.
Previous Winners
| Year | Male Winner | Time | Female Winner | Time |
| 2005 | Ain-Alar Juhanson (EST) | 08:55:38 | Virginia Berasategui (ESP) | 10:09:40 |
| 2006 | Ain-Alar Juhanson (EST) | 08:54:14 | Karin Thuerig (SUI) | 09:52:45 |
| 2007 | Eneko Llanos (ESP) | 08:49:39 | Tiina Boman (FIN) | 09:58:42 |
| 2008 | Bert Jammaer (BEL) | 08:59:40 | Bella Bayliss (GBR) | 10:02:30 |
| 2009 | Bert Jammaer (BEL) | 08:54:03 | Bella Bayliss (GBR) | 09:54:58 |
| 2010 | Eneko Llanos (ESP) | 08:37:43 | Catriona Morrison (GBR) | 10:03:53 |
| 2011 | Timo Bracht (GER) | 08:30:34 | Rachel Joyce (GBR) | 09:28:12 |
| 2012 | Victor Del Corral (ESP) | 08:44:39 | Michelle Vesterby (DEN) | 09:58:06 |
| 2013 | Faris Al-Sultan (GER) | 08:42:40 | Kristin Moeller (GER) | 09:37:34 |
| 2014 | Romain Guillaume (FRA) | 08:47:39 | Lucy Gossage (GBR) | 09:41:40 |
| 2015 | Alessandro Degasperi (ITA) | 08:56:49 | Diana Riesler (GER) | 09:56:03 |
Last Year’s TOP 3
Male Race Results
| Rank | Name | Nation | Swim | Bike | Run | Time |
| 1 | Alessandro Degasperi | ITA | 00:51:10 | 05:12:12 | 02:47:15 | 08:56:49 |
| 2 | Christian Kramer | GER | 00:48:20 | 05:05:51 | 02:59:14 | 08:59:30 |
| 3 | Mauro Baertsch | SUI | 00:52:04 | 05:10:48 | 02:54:13 | 09:04:45 |
Female Race Results
| Rank | Name | Nation | Swim | Bike | Run | Time |
| 1 | Diana Riesler | GER | 00:55:40 | 05:37:11 | 03:16:20 | 09:56:03 |
| 2 | Michaela Herlbauer | AUT | 00:53:21 | 05:58:16 | 03:15:05 | 10:13:49 |
| 3 | Caroline Livesey | GBR | 00:58:47 | 05:59:25 | 03:25:52 | 10:31:56 |
Course Records
| Leg | Gender | Record | Athlete | Date |
| Total | overall | 08:30:34 | Timo Bracht | 2011-05-21 |
| Swim | overall | 00:46:15 | Luc Van Lierde | 2006-05-20 |
| Bike | overall | 04:40:58 | Maik Twelsiek | 2010-05-22 |
| Run | overall | 02:44:29 | Gerrit Schellens | 2005-06-04 |
| Total | female | 09:28:12 | Rachel Joyce | 2011-05-21 |
| Swim | female | 00:50:40 | Hillary Biscay | 2010-05-22 |
| Bike | female | 05:26:23 | Tara Norton | 2010-05-22 |
| Run | female | 02:58:37 | Kristin Moeller | 2013-05-18 |
It’s quite unusual that an overall course record race isn’t showing up in any of the individual legs. This shows that – even more than in other races – the winner in Lanzarote has to have a balanced race across all three legs.
Course Rating
The Course Rating for IM Lanzarote is – 14:36.
Race Adjustments for IM Lanzarote
| Year | Adjustment | Swim Adj. | Bike Adj. | Run Adj. | # of Finishers | Rating | Swim Rating | Bike Rating | Run Rating |
| 2006 | -07:10 | 02:21 | -20:46 | 01:20 | 45 | -07:10 | 02:21 | -20:46 | 01:20 |
| 2007 | -12:01 | -01:04 | -09:17 | -04:09 | 40 | -09:36 | 00:39 | -15:02 | -01:24 |
| 2008 | -13:09 | 00:47 | -18:11 | 04:48 | 47 | -10:47 | 00:41 | -16:05 | 00:40 |
| 2009 | -09:01 | -00:08 | -14:46 | 03:52 | 44 | -10:20 | 00:29 | -15:45 | 01:28 |
| 2010 | -07:07 | 01:33 | -09:39 | 00:08 | 34 | -09:42 | 00:42 | -14:32 | 01:12 |
| 2011 | -08:23 | 02:22 | -16:18 | 05:15 | 23 | -09:29 | 00:59 | -14:50 | 01:52 |
| 2012 | -17:54 | 00:53 | -17:29 | 04:32 | 22 | -10:41 | 00:58 | -15:12 | 02:15 |
| 2013 | -19:06 | 00:22 | -19:39 | 03:19 | 19 of 31 | -11:44 | 00:53 | -15:46 | 02:23 |
| 2014 | -23:49 | 00:50 | -18:18 | -01:38 | 37 of 56 | -13:04 | 00:53 | -16:03 | 01:56 |
| 2015 | -28:18 | 01:14 | -31:00 | 00:13 | 29 of 44 | -14:36 | 00:55 | -17:32 | 01:46 |
KPR points and Prize Money
IM Lanzarote is a P-2000 race. It has a total prize purse of 25.000 US$.
Male Race Participants
| Rank | Bib | Name | Nation | Expected Time | Rating | Exp. Swim | Exp. Bike | Exp. Run | Consistency | Overall |
| 1 | 1 | Jan Frodeno | GER | 08:21:26 | 08:07:22 | 00:45:38 | 04:44:00 | 02:46:47 | 71% +29% -0% (4) | 1 |
| 2 | 3 | Timo Bracht | GER | 08:35:27 | 08:22:49 | 00:48:12 | 04:52:21 | 02:49:54 | 79% +10% -10% (25) | 8 |
| 3 | 5 | Ivan Rana | ESP | 08:39:56 | 08:24:55 | 00:47:12 | 04:59:39 | 02:48:05 | 83% +10% -6% (9) | 11 |
| 4 | 6 | Jesse Thomas | USA | 08:43:12 | 08:39:40 | 00:49:51 | 04:53:16 | 02:55:05 | n/a (1 IM Pro race) | (55) |
| 5 | 7 | David McNamee | GBR | 08:45:23 | 08:27:09 | 00:47:15 | 05:03:52 | 02:49:16 | 100% +0% -0% (3) | 15 |
| 6 | 4 | Miquel Blanchart Tinto | ESP | 08:50:32 | 08:37:51 | 00:48:02 | 05:08:23 | 02:49:07 | 90% +10% -0% (11) | 46 |
| 8 | 22 | Esben Hovgaard | DEN | 08:52:23 | 08:49:38 | 00:52:09 | 04:58:13 | 02:57:01 | 54% +39% -7% (8) | 84 |
| 9 | 50 | Marc Duelsen | GER | 08:54:23 | 08:46:17 | 00:51:37 | 04:58:12 | 02:59:35 | 60% +0% -40% (6) | (75) |
| 10 | 47 | Johann Ackermann | GER | 08:55:25 | 08:53:25 | 00:48:13 | 04:57:14 | 03:04:58 | 36% +0% -64% (5) | (98) |
| 11 | 8 | Stephen Bayliss | GBR | 09:00:56 | 08:51:07 | 00:46:58 | 05:05:00 | 03:03:58 | 40% +4% -56% (45) | 88 |
| 12 | 35 | Erik-Simon Strijk | NED | 09:01:58 | 08:53:11 | 00:51:48 | 05:02:42 | 03:02:28 | 89% +11% -0% (5) | 96 |
| 13 | 9 | Nicholas Ward Munoz | GBR | 09:05:47 | 08:54:53 | 00:53:13 | 05:10:15 | 02:57:19 | 45% +16% -39% (16) | (102) |
| 14 | 45 | Harry Wiltshire | GBR | 09:07:50 | 08:53:24 | 00:47:08 | 05:08:47 | 03:06:56 | 26% +32% -42% (14) | 97 |
| 15 | 24 | Karl-Johan Danielsson | SWE | 09:08:15 | 09:03:40 | 00:50:14 | 04:55:07 | 03:17:55 | 16% +40% -44% (8) | 133 |
| 16 | 44 | Graeme Stewart | GBR | 09:11:38 | 09:01:49 | 00:54:18 | 05:05:37 | 03:06:43 | 56% +20% -25% (10) | 124 |
| 17 | 34 | Carlos Lopez Diaz | ESP | 09:11:47 | 09:00:05 | 00:46:48 | 05:09:23 | 03:10:37 | 38% +19% -44% (5) | 119 |
| 18 | 39 | Andrey Lyatskiy | RUS | 09:15:33 | 09:01:02 | 00:48:23 | 05:14:42 | 03:07:29 | 83% +5% -11% (25) | 121 |
| 19 | 36 | Mikita Hryhoryeu | POL | 09:16:41 | 09:12:56 | 00:50:11 | 05:18:33 | 03:02:58 | n/a (1 IM Pro race) | (177) |
| 20 | 48 | Marcel Bischof | GER | 09:21:51 | 09:17:21 | 00:55:51 | 05:13:16 | 03:07:44 | 77% +23% -0% (12) | 190 |
| 21 | 43 | Harry Springall | GBR | 09:22:34 | 09:18:46 | 00:53:33 | 05:02:53 | 03:21:09 | n/a (1 IM Pro race) | (194) |
| 22 | 49 | Roman Deisenhofer | GER | 09:24:53 | 09:15:28 | 00:52:25 | 05:09:18 | 03:18:11 | 59% +41% -0% (3) | 186 |
| 23 | 30 | Eneko Elosegui | ESP | 09:32:34 | 09:34:05 | 00:56:42 | 05:08:07 | 03:22:45 | 50% +48% -2% (13) | (230) |
| 24 | 21 | Till Schramm | GER | 09:34:15 | 09:38:23 | 00:56:11 | 05:11:38 | 03:21:26 | 9% +14% -77% (5) | 242 |
| 25 | 46 | Craig Twigg | GBR | 09:40:05 | 09:53:38 | 00:51:57 | 05:05:19 | 03:37:49 | 3% +21% -76% (12) | 263 |
| 26 | 23 | Marcus Hultgren | SWE | 09:43:23 | 09:35:12 | 00:56:58 | 05:24:10 | 03:17:15 | 64% +36% -0% (3) | 234 |
| 27 | 32 | Enric Gussinyer | ESP | 09:46:21 | 09:31:00 | 00:50:55 | 05:17:01 | 03:33:24 | 86% +0% -14% (6) | 223 |
| 28 | 26 | Michael Louys | BEL | 09:46:54 | 09:42:38 | 01:00:58 | 05:20:22 | 03:20:34 | 42% +19% -39% (6) | 247 |
| 29 | 29 | John Manuel Galindo Rooney | ESP | 09:47:41 | 09:43:39 | 00:51:33 | 05:23:47 | 03:27:22 | 37% +63% -0% (2) | (250) |
| 30 | 41 | Gilian Oriet | SUI | 10:02:59 | 10:05:22 | 00:56:53 | 05:29:07 | 03:31:59 | 12% +14% -74% (8) | (275) |
| 31 | 51 | Armin Atzlinger | AUT | 10:08:16 | 10:04:10 | 00:53:53 | 05:38:17 | 03:31:06 | n/a (1 IM Pro race) | (275) |
| 32 | 52 | Christopher Baird | USA | 11:52:35 | 11:47:47 | 01:03:06 | 06:54:19 | 03:50:10 | n/a (1 IM Pro race) | (300) |
| 33 | 38 | Marek Nemcik | SVK | 12:04:20 | 12:16:25 | 01:11:17 | 06:12:24 | 04:35:39 | 32% +23% -45% (32) | 301 |
| 25 | Jim Thijs | BEL | n/a | unrated | unrated | unrated | unrated | n/a (no IM Pro race) | (n/a) | |
| 27 | Diego Van Looy | BEL | n/a | unrated | unrated | unrated | unrated | n/a (no IM Pro race) | (n/a) | |
| 28 | Rob Bobbaers | BEL | n/a | unrated | unrated | unrated | unrated | n/a (no IM Pro race) | (n/a) | |
| 31 | Francisco Fernandez Cortes | ESP | n/a | unrated | unrated | unrated | unrated | n/a (no IM Pro race) | (n/a) | |
| 33 | Rayco Marrero Avero | ESP | n/a | unrated | unrated | unrated | unrated | n/a (1 IM Pro race) | (n/a) | |
| 37 | Alen Kralj | SVN | n/a | unrated | unrated | unrated | unrated | n/a (no IM Pro race) | (n/a) | |
| 40 | Frederic Garcia | FRA | n/a | unrated | unrated | unrated | unrated | n/a (1 IM Pro race) | (n/a) | |
| 42 | Dominic Rohan-Gates | GBR | n/a | unrated | unrated | unrated | unrated | 0% +0% -100% (2) | (n/a) |
Female Race Participants
| Rank | Bib | Name | Nation | Expected Time | Rating | Exp. Swim | Exp. Bike | Exp. Run | Consistency | Overall |
| 1 | 10 | Diana Riesler | GER | 09:39:22 | 09:26:27 | 00:56:36 | 05:20:49 | 03:16:57 | 55% +17% -28% (17) | 22 |
| 2 | 17 | Alexandra Tondeur | BEL | 10:03:56 | 09:59:52 | 00:56:57 | 05:45:30 | 03:16:29 | n/a (1 IM Pro race) | (90) |
| 4 | 13 | Saleta Castro Nogueira | ESP | 10:10:37 | 10:11:01 | 00:54:22 | 05:46:04 | 03:25:11 | 53% +47% -0% (8) | 110 |
| 5 | 11 | Caroline Livesey | GBR | 10:14:26 | 10:06:27 | 00:59:57 | 05:43:45 | 03:25:44 | 70% +0% -30% (4) | 101 |
| 6 | 15 | Tine Holst | DEN | 10:15:55 | 10:06:09 | 01:04:09 | 05:39:07 | 03:27:39 | 89% +11% -0% (10) | 100 |
| 7 | 20 | Jocelyn Mccauley | USA | 10:20:49 | 10:22:47 | 00:58:21 | 05:50:13 | 03:27:16 | 41% +0% -59% (4) | (139) |
| 8 | 18 | Nicole Woysch | GER | 10:34:38 | 10:48:03 | 00:57:23 | 05:48:58 | 03:43:17 | 26% +4% -70% (20) | (177) |
| 9 | 19 | Alyssa Godesky | USA | 10:35:03 | 10:29:50 | 01:00:55 | 05:56:47 | 03:32:21 | 54% +23% -23% (10) | 160 |
| 10 | 12 | Anne Jensen | DEN | 10:36:48 | 10:30:47 | 01:08:01 | 05:42:00 | 03:41:47 | 65% +0% -35% (3) | 164 |
| 16 | Lucy Charles | GBR | n/a | unrated | unrated | unrated | unrated | n/a (no IM Pro race) | (n/a) |
Winning Odds
Male Race Participants
Based on the raw numbers, current Kona champion Jan Frodeno is the clear favorite to win the race – he’s got the best swim, bike and run ratings of the whole field. But he’s had a calf injury that forced him to skip IM South Africa and his main focus for Lanzarote will be to validate his automatic qualifier Kona slot, so maybe there is a chance for the other athletes. Timo Bracht would be the favorite in almost any other field, he’s focused on getting the points he needs to qualify for Kona – for him that would mean a Top 3. (Timo currently has 2.320 points.) David McNamee (3.310), Ivan Rana (3.025) and Jesse Thomas (2.545) need to finish just outside the Top 3 to secure a July slot, while Romain Guillaume (1.470) would have to win to punch his Kona ticket.
- Jan Frodeno: 43% (1-1)
- Timo Bracht: 34% (2-1)
- Ivan Rana: 11% (8-1)
- Romain Guillaume: 3% (29-1)
- Jesse Thomas: 3% (32-1)
- David McNamee: 2% (39-1)
Female Race Participants
2015 Lanzarote champion Diana Riesler is the clear favorite to defend her title – and she will need the points to have a shot at July qualifying after her DNF in Kona. The athlete with the most KPR points is Tine Holst (3.185), she’ll need at least a Top3 for a July slot. The next best in the KPR are Alexandra Tondeur (2.630), Saleta Castro (1.375) and Caroline Livesay (1.150) who need a great performance in Lanzarote to keep their Kona chances alive.
- Diana Riesler: 72% (1-1)
- Jeanne Collonge: 8% (12-1)
- Saleta Castro Nogueira: 7% (13-1)
- Tine Holst: 5% (18-1)
- Caroline Livesey: 4% (22-1)
- Alexandra Tondeur: 2% (44-1)
With Lucy Charles there is an interesting new Pro female in the field. Lucy was the fastest female amateur in Kona 2015, and her swim time of 52:20 was a whopping 2:44 than Jodie Swallow’s best Pro swim time. While we can expect Lucy to lead after the swim, she’ll need to step up her bike and run (5:38 and 3:44 in Kona) to hold on to the lead. But she’ll be a factor in the Top 5 for sure, and maybe even for the podium.
Even though I don’t drink any beer myself, I know that beer is taken very seriously in Texas. In addition to “Shiner Bock” there are a lot of micro-breweries putting out their product, and while the alcohol content of around 8% makes the calorie count pretty high, a lot of triathletes enjoy a nice beer after a hard training session .. or just to relax.
After that career highlight Nils was very motivated for the rest of the season, but he wasn’t able to have a good race after Roth. He raced the 70.3 Championships in Zell am See and was in the second group on the bike. But when he tried to split the group on a climb, he ran out of steam, wasn’t able to put together a decent run and dropped back to 22nd place. To prepare for Kona he went to the heat of The Woodlands, Texas, with his coach Wolfram Bott and a number of other athletes. He felt the training went well and was looking forward to race well in Kona. He was in a good position after the swim but had a flat early in the bike. After a quick fix he tried to race back to the main group but just wasted a lot of energy without making up much ground. He fell back even further on the climb to Hawi, but still went on to finish the race in 29th place.
Update May 8th: