IM Florida 2012 – Predictions (Main Post)
This weekend we have the first Ironman race after Kona. The race has attracted quite a large Pro field (48 male and 26 female Pros), and some athletes have jumped in to get an early start for Kona 2013 qualification.
If you are looking for additional information on the participants, you can find a full list of their pro results in the detail post.
Update (Oct 31): Thanks to TriLounge, there were a lot of changes in the start list in the last few days. (I had caught Rinnie and MBK, but there was a lot more.) I’ve crossed out a few non starters and added the names and ratings of some additions.
Another Update (Nov 1): James Cunnama will not be racing Florida. He tweeted: “Late entry and even later withdrawal. Following minor illness 10 days ago decided to focus solely on Cozumel Ironman.”
Last Year’s TOP 3
Male Race Results
Rank | Name | Nation | Swim | Bike | Run | Time |
1 | Ronnie Schildknecht | SWI | 00:51:18 | 04:19:55 | 02:43:47 | 07:59:42 |
2 | Maxim Kriat | UKR | 00:51:10 | 04:29:30 | 02:44:35 | 08:10:43 |
3 | Justin Daerr | USA | 00:54:45 | 04:29:52 | 02:48:33 | 08:18:02 |
Female Race Results
Rank | Name | Nation | Swim | Bike | Run | Time |
1 | Jessica Jacobs | USA | 01:02:03 | 04:53:42 | 02:53:26 | 08:55:10 |
2 | Mackenzie Madison | USA | 01:00:19 | 05:00:05 | 03:03:21 | 09:10:21 |
3 | Sofie Goos | BEL | 00:56:45 | 05:04:03 | 03:16:38 | 09:22:21 |
Course Records
Leg | Gender | Record | Athlete | Date |
Total | overall | 07:59:42 | Ronnie Schildknecht | 2011-11-05 |
Swim | overall | 00:44:36 | John Flanagan | 2011-11-05 |
Bike | overall | 04:19:00 | Tom Evans | 2008-11-01 |
Run | overall | 02:42:55 | Mads Vittrup | 2011-11-05 |
Total | female | 08:55:10 | Jessica Jacobs | 2011-11-05 |
Swim | female | 00:50:26 | Tereza Macel | 2007-11-03 |
Bike | female | 04:47:59 | Tyler Stewart | 2007-11-03 |
Run | female | 02:53:26 | Jessica Jacobs | 2011-11-05 |
Course Rating
Course Rating for IM Florida is 14:56.
Race Adjustments for IM Florida
Year | Adjustment | Swim Adj. | # of Athletes | Rating | Swim Rating |
2005 | 10:47 | -01:46 | 30 | 10:47 | -01:46 |
2006 | 09:29 | -03:36 | 41 | 10:08 | -02:41 |
2007 | 17:13 | -00:43 | 69 | 12:30 | -02:02 |
2008 | 20:52 | -01:18 | 46 | 14:35 | -01:51 |
2009 | 12:41 | n/a | 32 | 14:12 | n/a |
2010 | 11:05 | -00:51 | 33 | 13:41 | -01:39 |
2011 | 22:28 | -01:21 | 31 | 14:56 | -01:36 |
Male Race Participants
After coming into form late in the year (as evidenced by winning IM Sweden), Jan Raphael will try to repeat his 2006 win:
Rank | Name | Nation | Expected Time | Rating | Rank |
1 | Jan Raphael | GER | 08:21:20 | 08:35:36 | 29 |
2 | Jens Petersen-Bach | DNK | 08:24:31 | 08:38:52 | 41 |
3 | Kirill Kotshegarov | EST | 08:28:16 | 08:42:44 | 53 |
4 | Georg Potrebitsch | GER | 08:30:47 | 08:45:19 | 69 |
5 | Karl-Johan Danielsson | SWE | 08:33:13 | 08:47:49 | 82 |
6 | Anton Blokhin | UKR | 08:36:46 | 08:51:28 | 102 |
7 | Christophe Bastie | FRA | 08:37:16 | 08:51:59 | 106 |
8 | Jonas Djurback | SWE | 08:38:52 | 08:53:38 | 117 |
9 | Nick Waninger | USA | 08:40:21 | 08:55:09 | 124 |
10 | Petr Vabrousek | CZE | 08:40:24 | 08:55:12 | 125 |
12 | Alexander Grigoryev | RUS | 08:48:18 | 09:03:20 | 169 |
13 | David Naesvik | SWE | 08:49:00 | 09:04:03 | 176 |
14 | Daniel Bretscher | USA | 08:53:04 | 09:08:14 | 209 |
15 | Andreas Fuchs | AUT | 08:54:21 | 09:09:33 | 220 |
16 | Daniel Schmoll | GER | 08:56:02 | 09:11:17 | 234 |
17 | Dan Brown | PHI | 08:58:01 | 09:13:19 | 240 |
19 | Scott Defilippis | USA | 09:00:13 | 09:15:35 | 258 |
20 | Brad Seng | USA | 09:04:03 | 09:19:32 | 291 |
21 | Nikolaus Wihlidal | AUT | 09:05:06 | 09:20:37 | 302 |
22 | Peter Kotland | USA | 09:13:20 | 09:29:05 | 361 |
24 | Thomas Gerlach | USA | 09:15:04 | 09:30:52 | 373 |
25 | Heinrich Sickl | AUT | 09:20:25 | 09:36:22 | 411 |
26 | Timothy Tapply | USA | 09:21:02 | 09:37:00 | 416 |
27 | Blake Becker | USA | 09:26:04 | 09:42:10 | 444 |
28 | Alfred Rahm | GER | 09:27:13 | 09:43:21 | 455 |
29 | Ryan Cain | CAN | 09:29:29 | 09:45:41 | 476 |
30 | Timothy Beardall | AUS | 09:29:32 | 09:45:44 | 477 |
31 | Matjaz Kovac | SVN | 09:36:13 | 09:52:37 | 520 |
32 | Raymond Botelho | USA | 09:36:55 | 09:53:20 | 528 |
33 | Bojan Maric | SCG | 09:55:30 | 10:12:27 | 635 |
34 | Sean Donnelly | GER | 10:01:03 | 10:18:09 | 663 |
35 | Mike Hermanson | USA | 10:09:49 | 10:27:10 | 701 |
36 | Reinaldo Oliveira | BRA | 10:10:51 | 10:28:14 | 703 |
37 | Andrew Hodges | USA | 10:14:35 | 10:32:04 | 713 |
38 | Richard Wygand | BRA | 10:30:26 | 10:48:22 | 763 |
39 | Marek Nemcik | SVK | 11:36:53 | 11:56:43 | 834 |
40 | David Plese | n/a | unrated | n/a | |
41 | Denis Chevrot | n/a | unrated | n/a | |
42 | James Mccurdy | n/a | unrated | n/a | |
43 | Brandon Jessop | USA | n/a | unrated | n/a |
44 | Alun Woodward | n/a | unrated | n/a | |
45 | Jose Rosales-Yepez | n/a | unrated | n/a | |
46 | Erik Strand | SWE | n/a | unrated | n/a |
47 | Rodrigo Faria | n/a | unrated | n/a | |
48 | Gabriel Raff | n/a | unrated | n/a |
The following athletes have been added to the start list:
James Cunnama: 08:38:32- Stefan Riesen: 08:54:32
- Georg Swoboda: 09:03:40
- Andi Fuchs: 09:14:43
- Olly Piggin: 09:18:55
- Kyle Pawlaczyk: 09:36:37
- Andy Starykowicz: unrated
Female Race Participants
The two best rated athletes (Rinnie and MBK) are late additions – they have not made it to the “official” (but probably outdated) start list, but have committed on social media to race in Florida:
Rank | Name | Nation | Expected Time | Rating | Rank |
1 | Mirinda Carfrae | AUS | 08:53:43 | 09:08:54 | 2 |
2 | Meredith Kessler | USA | 09:15:57 | 09:31:46 | 25 |
3 | Carrie Lester | AUS | 09:18:39 | 09:34:33 | 30 |
5 | Heleen Bij De Vaate | NLD | 09:30:51 | 09:47:05 | 61 |
6 | Asa Lundström | SWE | 09:33:14 | 09:49:33 | 71 |
7 | Jessica Jacobs | USA | 09:38:49 | 09:55:17 | 84 |
8 | Jackie Arendt | USA | 09:40:20 | 09:56:51 | 89 |
10 | Jennie Hansen | USA | 09:40:57 | 09:57:29 | 92 |
11 | Kristin Lie | NOR | 09:52:38 | 10:09:30 | 134 |
12 | Yvette Grice | GBR | 09:54:42 | 10:11:37 | 141 |
13 | Rebekka Essmüller | GER | 09:55:53 | 10:12:50 | 142 |
15 | Suzanne Serpico | USA | 09:58:11 | 10:15:12 | 151 |
16 | Stephanie Jones | USA | 10:01:20 | 10:18:26 | 161 |
17 | Kelly Fillnow | USA | 10:03:29 | 10:20:39 | 168 |
18 | Katya Meyers | USA | 10:05:48 | 10:23:02 | 176 |
19 | Ann Ciaverella | 10:39:37 | 10:57:49 | 247 | |
20 | Natasha Van der merwe | n/a | unrated | n/a | |
21 | Missy Kuck | n/a | unrated | n/a | |
22 | Morgin Chaffin | n/a | unrated | n/a | |
24 | Emelie Gunnarsson | n/a | unrated | n/a | |
25 | Heather Leiggi | n/a | unrated | n/a | |
26 | Ashley Clifford | n/a | unrated | n/a |
The following athletes have been added to the start list:
- Yvonne Van Vlerken: 09:18:34
- Jeanne Collonge: 10:02:43
- Eva Nystrom: 10:09:43
- Sandra Soldan: 10:53:58
Winning Odds
Male Race Participants
- Jan Raphael: 54% (1-1)
- Georg Potrebitsch: 16% (5-1)
- Kirill Kotshegarov: 13% (7-1)
- Jonas Djurback: 4% (21-1)
- Christophe Bastie: 4% (26-1)
- Jens Petersen-Bach: 4% (26-1)
- Petr Vabrousek: 2% (64-1)
Female Race Participants
- Mirinda Carfrae: 58% (1-1)
- Jessica Jacobs: 16% (5-1)
- Meredith Kessler: 13% (7-1)
Nina Kraft: 4% (23-1)- Carrie Lester: 4% (26-1)
- Heleen Bij De Vaate: 3% (38-1)