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IM Sweden 2013 – Analyzing Results

Race Conditions

Last year, the first edition of the Kalmar race as an Ironman saw the fastest adjustment I ever calculated for a race (28:44). This year, the numbers were a bit more normal (adjustment of 12:40), pretty much comparable to what we saw this year for IM Germany. The swim and run were similar to last year, and the main difference was the bike adjustment – either the conditions were very favorable last year or this year’s course was more accurate.

Male Race Results

Pedro Gomes had a great race and performed better than his ratings in all disciplines:

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to expected
1 Pedro Gomes POR 00:48:31 04:33:42 02:54:08 08:19:30 -16:37
2 David Plese SVN 00:53:56 04:35:49 02:48:40 08:22:01 -06:01
3 Anton Blokhin UKR 00:48:36 04:39:39 02:54:28 08:26:09 -08:00
4 Jarmo Hast FIN 00:50:03 04:51:24 02:50:43 08:35:40 04:36
5 Christophe Bastie FRA 00:53:35 04:36:11 03:04:00 08:37:12 -01:10
6 David Naesvik SWE 00:54:25 04:35:31 03:05:20 08:38:38 -16:22
7 Andrey Lyatskiy RUS 00:48:39 04:49:09 02:59:39 08:41:11 -08:29
8 Pontus Lindberg SWE 00:51:23 04:45:14 03:03:22 08:43:24 n/a
9 Manuel Wyss SWI 00:53:08 04:55:26 02:57:50 08:50:15 -34:17
10 Greg Close USA 00:58:22 04:52:28 03:01:31 08:56:39 -02:24
11 Steven Osborne GBR 00:58:10 05:01:07 02:54:38 08:58:16 -38:37
12 Harri Sokk EST 01:01:17 04:40:13 03:11:09 08:58:30 n/a
13 Karl-Johan Danielsson SWE 00:48:38 04:34:57 03:33:12 09:00:14 25:10
14 Ivan Alvarez Gomez ESP 00:58:18 04:57:52 03:05:00 09:05:17 -02:28
15 Fredrik Carlen SWE 00:53:30 04:50:40 03:18:00 09:05:39 -03:59
16 Morten Truelsen DEN 01:02:05 04:48:58 03:15:33 09:10:27 n/a
17 Josef Krivanek CZE 00:57:37 04:58:08 03:30:22 09:30:09 -17:35
18 Jojje Borssen SWE 01:02:24 04:57:36 03:37:38 09:42:25 n/a
19 Andrej Palinsky SVK 01:12:53 05:02:48 03:47:27 10:09:54 -33:07
20 Marek Nemcik SVK 01:15:58 05:42:29 05:16:50 12:25:03 49:08

Female Race Results

On the female side, Jodie Swallow managed to break her string of 2nd place finishes by biking a bit slower than she did in South Africa and Germany and then holding strong on the run (posting the best splits in each of the legs, and even leading the men’s race after the swim):

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to expected
1 Jodie Swallow GBR 00:48:30 04:55:39 03:06:41 08:54:01 -11:28
2 Eva Nystroem SWE 01:02:27 04:59:15 03:13:01 09:17:56 -05:51
3 Britta Martin NZL 00:58:13 05:07:15 03:12:57 09:22:18 -02:34
4 Louise Rundqvist SWE 01:05:59 05:18:25 03:20:41 09:48:39 n/a
5 Jana Candrova CZE 01:06:06 05:27:22 03:28:32 10:06:06 -00:09
6 Maria Lemeseva RUS 01:08:57 05:27:03 03:26:47 10:07:14 15:21
7 Helene Pallesen DEN 01:12:04 05:32:29 03:18:54 10:07:32 05:20
8 Simona Vykoukalova CZE 01:07:52 05:31:24 03:26:28 10:10:25 -06:55
9 Emma Graaf SWE 00:58:08 05:27:08 03:43:41 10:14:13 n/a
10 Conny Dauben GER 01:10:03 05:24:32 04:01:27 10:41:08 -00:12

IM Copenhagen 2013 – Predictions

Update: Dianne McEwan contacted me on twitter to say that she won’t start in Copenhagen but is aiming for Challenge Vichy.

Previous Year’s TOP 3

Last year “IM Copenhagen” was still “Challenge Copenhagen” until the race organizer was bought by WTC and the race transferred to the IM series. As far as I know, the course has not been changed so the ratings from the races since 2010 are still valid.

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Aaron Farlow AUS 00:47:01 04:26:43 03:03:00 08:20:09
2 Mads Vittrup DEN 00:51:17 04:41:06 02:45:02 08:24:57
3 Jimmy Johnsen DEN 00:48:08 04:39:59 02:54:18 08:25:15

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Camilla Pedersen DEN 00:48:57 04:59:05 03:21:12 09:12:27
2 Lisbeth Kristensen DEN 00:51:18 05:01:35 03:18:03 09:15:24
3 Katja Konschak GER 00:51:13 05:15:06 03:07:49 09:19:54

Course Records

Leg Gender Record Athlete Date
Total overall 08:07:39 Tim Berkel 2010-08-01
Swim overall 00:45:22 Stephen Bayliss 2011-08-01
Bike overall 04:26:43 Aaron Farlow 2012-08-11
Run overall 02:38:58 Mads Vittrup 2011-08-01
Total female 08:52:42 Rebekah Keat 2011-08-01
Swim female 00:48:29 Ann Lønnberg 2011-08-01
Bike female 04:48:04 Rebekah Keat 2010-08-01
Run female 03:05:02 Rebekah Keat 2011-08-01

Course Rating

The Course Rating for Challenge Copenhagen is 21:15. Behind IM Sweden (which is held on the same weekend) it is the second-fastest course in my database. (However, Sweden has only been held once as an IM, and the rating is still unstable.)

Race Adjustments for Challenge Copenhagen

Year Adjustment Swim Adj. Bike Adj. Run Adj. # of Athletes Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating
2010 26:48 01:30 09:24 12:10 18 26:48 01:30 09:24 12:10
2011 24:01 03:13 11:30 08:43 19 25:24 02:22 10:27 10:26
2012 12:57 02:18 09:09 05:57 16 21:15 02:20 10:01 08:57

KPR points and Price Money

Challenge Copenhagen has 1000 KPR points for the winner. It has a total price purse of 50k€ (officially it’s 375.000 Danish Kronor, or about 65.000 US $).

Male Race Participants

Rank Name Nation Expected Time Rating Rank Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating
1 Jens Petersen-Bach DEN 08:16:03 08:36:23 35 00:52:11 04:48:33 02:56:17
2 Dejan Patrcevic CRO 08:28:31 08:49:21 98 00:51:43 05:00:00 02:54:32
3 Esben Hovgaard DEN 08:31:51 08:52:49 111 00:53:20 04:49:51 03:07:33
4 Nick Baldwin SEY 08:32:30 08:53:30 115 00:52:35 04:54:54 03:06:08
5 Jacob Frandsen DEN 08:34:00 08:55:04 126 00:55:18 04:45:11 03:11:42
6 Jens Groenbek DEN 08:34:31 08:55:36 130 00:52:29 04:48:30 03:12:11
7 Keegan Williams NZL 08:38:01 08:59:15 149 00:52:24 04:50:31 03:07:22
8 Jens Kaiser GER 08:41:35 09:02:57 175 00:58:09 04:50:00 03:11:26
9 Andreas Borch DEN 08:47:49 09:09:27 212 00:48:59 04:53:29 03:22:41
10 Egoitz Zalakain ESP 08:54:15 09:16:09 254 00:56:03 04:59:21 03:10:11
11 Axel Reiser NZL 08:57:04 09:19:04 274 00:55:00 05:06:15 03:19:19
12 Chris Goodfellow GBR 08:59:06 09:21:11 293 00:54:24 04:54:37 03:29:20
13 Michal Kulich SVK 09:01:35 09:23:47 308 01:00:49 05:11:07 03:06:01
14 Steven Janse BEL 09:11:45 09:34:22 366 00:57:54 05:15:30 03:25:07
15 Christof Schmidt GER 09:13:15 09:35:55 375 unrated unrated unrated
16 Ludovic Le Guellec FRA 09:35:05 09:58:39 504 00:58:42 05:17:49 03:37:23
17 Marc-Andre Hages GER 09:44:34 10:08:31 551 00:54:07 05:12:32 03:58:08
Henrik Hyldelund DEN n/a unrated n/a unrated unrated unrated
Michael Louys BEL n/a unrated n/a unrated unrated unrated
Andreas Helbo beck DEN n/a unrated n/a unrated unrated unrated
Nis Lind DEN n/a unrated n/a unrated unrated unrated
Anders Wagner DEN n/a unrated n/a unrated unrated unrated
Kasper Ougaard DEN n/a unrated n/a unrated unrated unrated
Stefan Eichheimer GER n/a unrated n/a unrated unrated unrated

Female Race Participants

Rank Name Nation Expected Time Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating Rank
1 Daniela Saemmler GER 09:08:33 09:31:02 00:54:11 05:11:32 03:21:39 23
2 Lucie Reed CZE 09:17:20 09:40:10 00:50:05 05:17:33 03:29:11 49
3 Lisbeth Kristensen DEN 09:19:52 09:42:49 00:54:34 05:14:24 03:28:16 54
4 Dianne McEwan ZAF 09:24:25 09:47:33 00:56:12 05:26:44 03:21:05 70
5 Camilla Lindholm SWE 09:29:53 09:53:14 01:07:51 05:20:23 03:18:12 86
6 Julia Grant NZL 09:30:43 09:54:06 00:56:24 05:15:36 03:29:36 89
7 Monique Grossrieder SWI 09:35:24 09:58:59 01:04:13 05:25:55 03:28:20 103
8 Dana Wagner GER 09:35:33 09:59:08 01:01:09 05:25:37 03:35:01 103
9 Tine Holst DEN 09:49:57 10:14:08 01:08:42 05:21:31 03:38:56 146
10 Tamsyn Hayes NZL 09:51:07 10:15:20 00:58:51 05:20:55 03:48:49 153
Kerstin Kiis DEN n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a
Steffi Steinberg GER n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a
Eva Wutti AUT n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a
Lionele Baroux FRA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

Even though Jens Petersen-Bach has the better rating, my simulation shows a slight advantage for Dejan Patrcevic as he has some more experience and has had a great race in Copenhagen in 2011.

  • Dejan Patrcevic: 44% (1-1)
  • Jens Petersen-Bach: 34% (2-1)
  • Keegan Williams: 7% (13-1)
  • Esben Hovgaard: 7% (14-1)
  • Jens Groenbek: 4% (22-1)

Female Race Participants

The top 3 rated athletes have the best odds but in a different order. Again, experience and a great race in Copenhagen (Lisbeth was second in 2012) leads to the best odds:

  • Lisbeth Kristensen: 50% (1-1)
  • Lucie Reed: 23% (3-1)
  • Daniela Saemmler: 18% (5-1)
  • Camilla Lindholm: 5% (20-1)
  • Dianne Mcewan: 2% (42-1)

Results for Jens Petersen-Bach (DEN)

Race Date Swim Bike Run Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Florida 2012-11-03 00:54:00 04:24:24 02:54:29 08:18:25 08:33:25 08:36:23 6
IM Melbourne 2012-03-24 00:55:20 04:35:56 02:55:10 08:30:10 08:37:28 08:37:47 14
Challenge Barcelona 2011-10-02 00:52:49 04:40:25 02:53:21 08:30:01 08:39:03 08:38:00 5
Challenge Barcelona 2010-10-03 00:52:13 04:30:52 02:55:44 08:22:57 08:36:36 08:36:36 5

Results for Dejan Patrcevic (CRO)

Race Date Swim Bike Run Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
Challenge Barcelona 2011-10-02 00:52:46 04:33:29 02:54:00 08:23:10 08:32:04 08:49:21 3
Challenge Copenhagen 2011-08-01 00:49:32 04:34:47 02:43:59 08:12:18 08:34:12 08:53:33 3
IM Austria 2010-07-04 00:52:03 05:27:52 02:57:38 09:23:02 09:34:18 08:59:25 25
IM Hawaii 2009-10-10 00:53:26 05:02:50 02:59:38 08:59:53 08:47:45 08:49:27 29
IM UK 2009-08-02 00:54:03 05:11:47 02:49:21 09:00:21 09:01:44 08:49:58 4
IM Austria 2009-07-05 00:00:00 04:44:41 02:52:46 08:29:45 08:44:14 08:45:17 8
IM Hawaii 2008-10-11 00:56:02 05:02:31 02:50:59 08:54:19 08:47:12 08:45:57 23
IM Austria 2008-07-13 00:49:00 04:42:35 02:48:03 08:28:04 08:44:37 08:44:37 5

Results for Esben Hovgaard (DEN)

Race Date Swim Bike Run Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Lanzarote 2012-05-19 00:54:41 05:20:06 03:16:06 09:37:33 09:19:49 08:52:49 11
IM Melbourne 2012-03-24 00:55:34 04:35:33 03:03:49 08:38:51 08:46:16 08:44:13 16
Challenge Copenhagen 2011-08-01 00:49:34 04:35:45 02:52:31 08:21:07 08:43:24 08:43:20 5
IM Lanzarote 2011-05-21 00:49:57 05:04:40 02:54:00 08:54:37 08:44:13 08:43:18 3
IM Florida 2010-11-06 00:51:34 04:32:55 03:01:44 08:31:29 08:42:13 08:42:13 8

Results for Nick Baldwin (SEY)

Race Date Swim Bike Run Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM South Africa 2013-04-14 00:54:24 04:45:32 03:03:58 08:48:01 08:53:30 08:53:30 11

Results for Jacob Frandsen (DEN)

Race Date Swim Bike Run Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
Challenge Barcelona 2012-09-30 00:56:05 04:26:25 03:09:14 08:34:30 08:53:43 08:55:04 11
Challenge Copenhagen 2012-08-11 00:53:27 04:42:51 03:04:00 08:43:54 08:56:28 08:56:28 6

Results for Jens Groenbek (DEN)

Race Date Swim Bike Run Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Sweden 2012-08-18 00:50:28 04:34:36 02:57:40 08:25:26 08:52:18 08:55:36 12
IM Melbourne 2012-03-24 00:55:25 04:35:50 03:25:27 09:00:36 09:08:20 08:57:20 24
Challenge Copenhagen 2010-08-01 00:50:24 04:30:25 02:53:47 08:17:34 08:42:15 08:47:29 3
Challenge Barcelona 2009-10-04 00:55:25 04:31:26 03:02:50 08:34:24 08:54:06 08:54:06 8

Results for Keegan Williams (NZL)

Race Date Swim Bike Run Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Brasil 2013-05-26 00:48:49 04:38:35 03:24:36 08:57:42 09:15:11 08:59:15 15
IM New Zealand 2013-03-02 00:51:46 04:48:40 03:04:50 08:50:22 08:53:54 08:56:49 7
Challenge Wanaka 2013-01-19 00:59:09 04:56:01 03:00:21 08:59:50 08:54:44 08:57:19 4
Challenge Copenhagen 2012-08-11 00:51:00 04:43:29 02:58:12 08:36:05 08:48:28 08:57:48 4
Challenge Roth 2011-07-10 00:51:32 04:26:23 02:54:52 08:16:01 08:37:21 08:59:41 3
IM Brasil 2011-05-29 08:37:20 08:59:12 09:03:33 6
IM New Zealand 2011-03-05 00:50:25 04:48:37 03:05:27 08:49:34 08:46:24 09:04:26 4
Challenge Wanaka 2011-01-15 10:49:47 10:14:31 09:08:37 7
Challenge Copenhagen 2010-08-01 00:50:35 04:32:19 02:46:32 08:12:52 08:37:19 08:49:41 2
IM New Zealand 2010-03-06 00:50:11 04:49:09 02:55:44 08:40:11 08:46:18 08:53:50 4
Challenge Wanaka 2010-01-16 08:41:19 08:41:11 08:57:04 3
IM Switzerland 2009-07-12 00:56:46 04:55:58 03:05:01 09:00:46 09:12:55 09:08:13 14
Challenge Wanaka 2008-01-19 09:05:55 09:01:01 09:01:01 5

Results for Jens Kaiser (GER)

Race Date Swim Bike Run Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM UK 2013-08-04 00:53:43 05:06:13 03:07:48 09:12:33 09:06:45 09:02:57 7
Challenge Henley 2012-09-16 00:57:46 04:46:58 03:13:27 09:02:41 09:10:29 09:00:25 10
IM Regensburg 2012-06-17 00:57:00 04:43:28 02:58:48 08:43:57 08:49:37 08:49:37 4

Results for Andreas Borch (DEN)

Race Date Swim Bike Run Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
Challenge Roth 2013-07-14 00:49:03 04:45:20 03:25:23 09:04:01 09:23:40 09:09:27 20
Challenge Barcelona 2012-09-30 00:49:52 04:36:37 03:07:35 08:36:37 08:55:55 09:04:01 12
Challenge Copenhagen 2012-08-11 00:46:56 04:45:48 03:15:13 08:55:23 09:08:14 09:07:35 9
Challenge Roth 2011-07-10 00:46:39 04:31:29 03:04:43 08:25:38 08:47:23 09:07:06 9
IM Austria 2009-07-05 00:47:39 04:44:46 03:42:42 09:20:25 09:36:20 09:29:41 22
Challenge Roth 2007-06-24 00:49:47 04:48:29 03:14:38 08:55:51 09:17:46 09:17:46 18

Results for Egoitz Zalakain (ESP)

Race Date Swim Bike Run Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
Challenge Roth 2013-07-14 00:54:52 04:38:45 03:16:43 08:53:52 09:13:09 09:16:09 17
Challenge Henley 2012-09-16 00:55:51 05:02:47 02:54:58 08:58:09 09:05:53 09:17:06 8
Challenge Copenhagen 2012-08-11 00:53:22 04:46:26 03:01:40 08:45:27 08:58:03 09:20:48 7
Challenge Copenhagen 2011-08-01 00:54:53 04:42:42 02:45:41 08:26:52 08:49:25 09:31:32 6
Challenge Copenhagen 2010-08-01 00:54:45 04:47:43 03:07:02 08:52:53 09:19:20 09:54:18 12
IM France 2009-06-28 00:59:17 05:17:17 04:24:06 10:47:45 10:55:12 10:18:10 19
IM UK 2007-08-19 00:53:12 05:25:38 03:05:59 09:29:29 09:38:36 09:41:22 18
IM France 2006-06-24 00:51:39 05:20:25 03:13:43 09:32:58 09:45:13 09:45:13 13

Results for Axel Reiser (NZL)

Race Date Swim Bike Run Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
Challenge Wanaka 2013-01-19 01:02:18 05:17:19 03:19:56 09:44:28 09:38:57 09:19:04 7
Challenge Wanaka 2011-01-15 09:35:29 09:04:15 09:06:54 6
Challenge Wanaka 2009-01-01 09:02:32 09:08:34 09:08:18 6
IM Hawaii 2007-10-13 00:58:12 05:01:32 03:12:00 09:17:42 09:15:28 09:08:11 40
Challenge Roth 2007-06-24 00:51:46 04:46:12 03:11:13 08:52:35 09:14:21 09:05:14 17
IM New Zealand 2007-03-03 00:53:37 04:59:56 03:10:32 09:09:47 09:14:29 08:59:53 9
IM Korea 2006-08-27 08:39:12 08:42:58 08:42:58 6

Results for Chris Goodfellow (GBR)

Race Date Swim Bike Run Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
Challenge Roth 2013-07-14 00:54:47 04:48:37 03:45:30 09:32:28 09:53:09 09:21:11 25
Challenge Henley 2012-09-16 00:54:46 04:50:18 03:03:49 08:53:50 09:01:30 09:00:38 7
Challenge Copenhagen 2012-08-11 00:51:13 04:41:00 03:10:34 08:47:06 08:59:45 08:59:45 8

Results for Michal Kulich (SVK)

Race Date Swim Bike Run Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Austria 2013-06-30 00:56:34 04:55:50 02:58:47 08:58:44 09:21:56 09:23:47 27
IM Wales 2011-09-11 00:55:32 05:51:20 03:04:33 10:04:44 09:31:48 09:25:22 14
IM Austria 2011-07-03 00:56:47 04:52:23 02:56:41 08:53:43 09:18:34 09:18:34 14

Results for Steven Janse (BEL)

Race Date Swim Bike Run Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Austria 2007-07-08 00:55:37 05:01:37 03:21:48 09:24:10 09:34:22 09:34:22 18

Results for Christof Schmidt (GER)

Race Date Swim Bike Run Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Switzerland 2010-07-25 09:07:09 09:14:31 09:35:55 17
IM UK 2008-09-07 00:56:20 05:19:14 03:21:12 09:43:21 09:40:08 09:52:51 11
IM Wisconsin 2007-09-09 01:03:52 05:08:02 03:46:41 10:06:47 10:04:38 10:03:42 21
IM Canada 2005-08-29 01:00:51 05:03:54 03:45:12 10:00:51 10:02:03 10:02:03 23

Results for Ludovic Le Guellec (FRA)

Race Date Swim Bike Run Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Germany 2013-07-07 00:57:04 05:12:36 03:57:42 10:12:58 10:29:30 09:58:39 42
IM Austria 2013-06-30 00:52:00 04:59:23 03:18:31 09:15:55 09:39:52 09:49:03 28
IM Switzerland 2012-07-15 01:02:33 05:15:01 03:18:12 09:39:28 09:45:45 09:53:10 18
IM France 2012-06-24 00:59:41 05:25:09 03:34:12 10:05:28 10:07:31 09:57:00 15
IM Lanzarote 2012-05-19 00:57:17 05:35:47 03:22:13 10:04:45 09:46:10 09:46:10 13

Results for Marc-Andre Hages (GER)

Race Date Swim Bike Run Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Germany 2013-07-07 00:51:57 05:05:03 04:12:02 10:14:25 10:30:59 10:08:31 44
IM Germany 2011-07-24 00:53:02 05:03:48 03:21:25 09:22:20 09:29:06 09:29:06 22

Results for Henrik Hyldelund (DEN)

Race Date Swim Bike Run Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race

Results for Michael Louys (BEL)

Race Date Swim Bike Run Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race

Results for Andreas Helbo beck (DEN)

Race Date Swim Bike Run Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race

Results for Nis Lind (DEN)

Race Date Swim Bike Run Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race

Results for Anders Wagner (DEN)

Race Date Swim Bike Run Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race

Results for Kasper Ougaard (DEN)

Race Date Swim Bike Run Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race

Results for Stefan Eichheimer (GER)

Race Date Swim Bike Run Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race

Results for Daniela Saemmler (GER)

Race Date Swim Bike Run Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Germany 2013-07-07 00:51:29 05:02:37 03:16:32 09:14:51 09:29:49 09:31:02 9
Challenge Barcelona 2012-09-30 00:55:58 04:57:22 03:16:23 09:11:55 09:32:32 09:32:32 3

Results for Lucie Reed (CZE)

Race Date Swim Bike Run Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM France 2013-06-23 00:51:29 05:33:45 03:26:40 09:57:44 10:04:29 09:40:10 5
IM South Africa 2013-04-14 00:52:17 05:11:31 03:18:59 09:27:07 09:33:00 09:35:16 3
Challenge Roth 2012-07-08 00:47:31 05:05:30 03:30:24 09:26:20 09:39:57 09:35:48 8
IM Germany 2011-07-24 00:47:59 05:06:20 03:15:31 09:13:46 09:20:26 09:34:51 2
IM Brasil 2011-05-29 09:14:23 09:37:49 09:37:56 2
Challenge Barcelona 2010-10-03 00:52:48 04:47:29 03:29:29 09:13:47 09:28:49 09:37:57 1
IM Hawaii 2009-10-10 00:50:58 05:24:21 03:45:06 10:04:42 09:51:06 09:40:26 22
IM Austria 2009-07-05 00:47:32 04:58:05 03:17:25 09:07:24 09:22:57 09:37:42 3
IM South Africa 2009-04-05 00:47:40 04:58:42 03:26:17 09:16:32 09:32:15 09:42:19 1
IM Austria 2008-07-13 00:48:33 05:04:04 03:15:27 09:13:17 09:31:19 09:46:27 5
IM South Africa 2008-04-13 00:50:00 05:07:29 03:34:08 09:34:09 09:46:52 09:54:01 3
Challenge Roth 2006-06-24 00:48:02 05:14:49 03:25:04 09:32:05 09:45:16 10:00:16 5
IM South Africa 2006-03-18 10:19:32 10:16:28 10:16:28 4

Results for Lisbeth Kristensen (DEN)

Race Date Swim Bike Run Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
Challenge Barcelona 2012-09-30 00:56:06 04:55:00 03:20:13 09:14:14 09:34:56 09:42:49 5
Challenge Copenhagen 2012-08-11 00:51:18 05:01:35 03:18:03 09:15:24 09:28:43 09:44:30 2
IM Louisville 2010-08-29 00:56:11 05:22:31 03:46:45 10:12:06 10:07:49 09:48:35 4
Challenge Wanaka 2010-01-16 10:03:09 10:03:00 09:45:15 3
IM Hawaii 2009-10-10 01:00:09 05:38:57 03:35:59 10:20:16 10:06:19 09:42:15 31
IM Louisville 2009-08-28 00:56:41 05:02:24 03:19:29 09:23:57 09:26:10 09:37:47 2
IM Switzerland 2009-07-12 00:56:09 05:11:28 03:15:18 09:25:37 09:38:19 09:40:19 3
IM New Zealand 2009-03-07 00:54:39 05:04:29 03:28:40 09:32:51 09:40:55 09:40:52 4
IM Louisville 2008-08-27 00:55:10 05:17:07 03:40:32 09:58:36 09:48:48 09:40:50 3
IM Western Australia 2006-12-03 00:53:31 04:50:49 03:25:40 09:10:00 09:25:51 09:37:50 1
IM Hawaii 2006-10-21 00:59:47 05:01:39 03:34:04 09:39:56 09:34:41 09:41:24 11
IM Germany 2006-07-23 09:24:32 09:36:59 09:44:08 3
IM Brasil 2006-05-28 00:51:44 04:58:40 03:30:23 09:20:47 09:36:20 09:48:28 1
IM Arizona 2005-04-09 00:55:52 05:27:00 03:37:34 10:05:17 10:05:17 10:05:17 5

Results for Dianne Mcewan (ZAF)

Race Date Swim Bike Run Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM South Africa 2013-04-14 00:57:52 05:16:43 03:18:57 09:37:45 09:43:45 09:47:33 6
IM South Africa 2012-04-22 01:07:41 05:37:37 03:18:14 10:07:55 09:52:35 09:52:35 4

Results for Camilla Lindholm (SWE)

Race Date Swim Bike Run Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Austria 2013-06-30 00:59:13 05:07:12 03:04:08 09:16:18 09:40:16 09:53:14 5
Challenge Copenhagen 2010-08-01 01:05:52 05:05:42 03:11:41 09:26:55 09:55:03 10:02:25 3
IM Switzerland 2009-07-12 01:08:05 05:06:15 03:20:56 09:38:12 09:51:11 10:05:39 7
IM Arizona 2008-11-23 01:12:05 05:15:13 03:18:41 09:50:23 10:01:31 10:12:39 8
IM Brasil 2008-05-25 01:21:38 05:16:35 10:14:01 10:14:01 10:23:34 10:20:10 4
IM South Africa 2007-03-18 01:25:47 05:29:41 03:30:56 10:26:26 10:15:23 10:15:23 7

Results for Julia Grant (NZL)

Race Date Swim Bike Run Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
Challenge Wanaka 2012-01-21 00:57:35 05:24:19 03:31:27 10:01:49 09:54:06 09:54:06 5

Results for Monique Grossrieder (SWI)

Race Date Swim Bike Run Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Switzerland 2013-07-28 01:10:13 05:25:01 03:34:59 10:14:34 10:03:09 09:58:59 11
IM South Africa 2013-04-14 01:07:08 05:13:23 03:23:11 09:48:22 09:54:28 09:54:28 7

Results for Dana Wagner (GER)

Race Date Swim Bike Run Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Western Australia 2012-12-09 01:04:18 05:26:39 05:42:42 12:20:42 12:38:12 09:59:08 9
IM Sweden 2012-08-18 00:58:55 04:48:47 03:31:30 09:22:32 09:52:26 09:59:08 2
IM Austria 2012-07-01 01:03:32 05:09:49 03:27:02 09:46:10 09:53:43 10:02:45 4
IM Melbourne 2012-03-24 01:04:51 05:21:09 03:32:33 10:03:52 10:12:30 10:12:30 15

Results for Tine Holst (DEN)

Race Date Swim Bike Run Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
Challenge Barcelona 2012-09-30 01:10:08 04:59:16 03:33:51 09:46:10 10:08:04 10:14:08 10
IM Lanzarote 2012-05-19 01:07:26 05:50:57 03:33:33 10:40:32 10:20:52 10:20:52 6

Results for Tamsyn Hayes (NZL)

Race Date Swim Bike Run Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
Challenge Wanaka 2013-01-19 01:06:44 05:29:15 03:39:54 10:21:04 10:15:12 10:15:20 5
Challenge Copenhagen 2012-08-11 00:57:47 05:15:53 04:07:51 10:26:01 10:41:02 10:15:23 8
Challenge Roth 2012-07-08 00:54:13 05:14:02 03:29:34 09:41:06 09:55:04 10:01:20 14
Challenge Wanaka 2012-01-21 01:00:06 05:23:19 03:44:29 10:16:23 10:08:29 10:08:29 7

Results for Kerstin Kiis (DEN)

Race Date Swim Bike Run Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race

Results for Steffi Steinberg (GER)

Race Date Swim Bike Run Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race

Results for Eva Wutti (AUT)

Race Date Swim Bike Run Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race

Results for Lionele Baroux (FRA)

Race Date Swim Bike Run Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race

IM Mont Tremblant 2013 – Predictions

Update: Leslie LaMacchia notified me on Twitter (thanks!) that Daniel Fontana will try to get some more KPR points, and that Clemente Alonso and Logan Franks will not be racing. I’ve added Daniel who is the new front-runner (the athlete with the best rating, even if my odds favor Victor Zyemtsev) and crossed out Logan and Clemente. 

 

Previous Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Romain Guillaume FRA 00:51:22 04:35:17 03:09:09 08:40:48
2 Alejandro Santamaria ESP 00:57:17 04:52:23 02:52:35 08:46:58
3 Matthew Russell USA 01:02:34 04:47:11 02:53:29 08:48:12

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Jessie Donavan USA 01:07:33 05:06:31 03:11:35 09:30:46
2 Uli Bromme USA 01:04:38 05:14:35 03:17:32 09:42:45
3 Rachel Kiers CAN 01:01:40 05:08:46 03:33:55 09:49:49

Course Records

Leg Gender Record Athlete Date
Total overall 08:40:48 Romain Guillaume 2012-08-18
Swim overall 00:51:22 Romain Guillaume 2012-08-18
Bike overall 04:35:17 Romain Guillaume 2012-08-18
Run overall 02:52:35 Alejandro Santamaria 2012-08-18
Total female 09:30:46 Jessie Donavan 2012-08-18
Swim female 00:57:10 Marie Danais 2012-08-18
Bike female 05:06:31 Jessie Donavan 2012-08-18
Run female 03:11:35 Jessie Donavan 2012-08-18

Course Rating

The Course Rating for IM Mont Tremblant is 10:49.

Race Adjustments for IM Mont Tremblant

Year Adjustment Swim Adj. Bike Adj. Run Adj. # of Athletes Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating
2012 10:49 -01:08 05:52 07:25 12 10:49 -01:08 05:52 07:25

KPR points and Price Money

IM Mont Tremblant has 4000 KPR points for the winner. It has a total price purse of 125k$.

Male Race Participants

Last year’s winner, Romain Guillaume is back to defend his title, but he is only seeded #17 as there are a lot of other, faster athletes:

Rank Name Nation Expected Time Rating Rank Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating
1 Clemente Alonso-McKernan ESP 08:22:20 08:32:37 20 00:47:40 04:46:51 02:52:06
(1) Daniel Fontana ITA 08:25:21 08:35:41 32 00:48:32 04:42:43 03:00:31
2 Paul Amey GBR 08:29:37 08:40:02 47 00:49:50 04:44:55 03:03:23
3 Victor Zyemtsev USA 08:30:50 08:41:17 54 00:50:26 04:46:36 03:00:01
4 Jozsef Major HUN 08:36:04 08:46:37 77 00:57:28 04:42:23 03:01:23
5 Stefan Schmid GER 08:36:36 08:47:10 79 00:53:43 04:47:33 03:03:08
6 Matty Reed USA 08:36:52 08:47:26 82 00:47:25 04:48:29 03:07:07
7 Luke Bell AUS 08:37:10 08:47:45 82 00:47:57 04:41:28 03:15:36
8 Bert Jammaer BEL 08:37:52 08:48:28 90 00:49:34 04:46:50 03:06:32
9 Paul Ambrose GBR 08:38:37 08:49:14 93 00:48:24 04:39:03 03:15:08
10 Daniel Halksworth GBR 08:38:44 08:49:21 98 00:47:36 04:48:19 03:08:08
11 Alejandro Santamaria ESP 08:40:42 08:51:21 107 00:54:37 04:53:11 03:00:24
12 Swen Sundberg GER 08:43:15 08:53:57 116 00:52:08 04:44:19 03:17:16
13 Trevor Delsaut FRA 08:44:19 08:55:02 125 00:54:57 04:52:58 03:00:50
14 Brandon Marsh USA 08:45:20 08:56:05 133 00:47:27 04:50:04 03:12:17
15 Dominik Berger AUT 08:51:39 09:02:32 171 00:48:28 04:51:42 03:21:21
16 Mike Schifferle SUI 08:52:27 09:03:20 177 01:00:26 04:51:24 03:06:49
17 Romain Guillaume FRA 08:55:49 09:06:47 195 00:49:07 04:44:13 03:21:02
18 Nigel Gray CAN 08:58:05 09:09:05 209 00:55:29 04:50:27 03:18:36
19 Simon Cochrane NZL 09:00:58 09:12:02 229 00:52:43 05:05:00 03:09:32
20 Bryan Rhodes NZL 09:07:45 09:18:57 273 00:47:48 04:56:02 03:23:40
21 Logan Franks USA 09:36:23 09:48:10 450 01:02:00 05:08:02 03:27:56
22 Jerome Bresson CAN 09:48:03 10:00:05 511 01:02:44 05:00:12 03:48:37
23 Arland Macasieb PHL 09:56:43 10:08:55 552 01:02:43 05:20:01 03:38:54
24 Brendan Naef CAN 11:29:58 11:44:05 696 00:57:24 05:09:08 05:39:20
Greg Kopecky USA n/a unrated n/a unrated unrated unrated
Michael Louys BEL n/a unrated n/a unrated unrated unrated
Adam Jones CAN n/a unrated n/a unrated unrated unrated
Sean Bechtel CAN n/a unrated n/a unrated unrated unrated

Female Race Participants

Rank Name Nation Expected Time Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating Rank
1 Mary Beth Ellis USA 09:04:49 09:15:58 00:51:13 05:08:31 03:12:52 7
2 Rebekah Keat AUS 09:13:26 09:24:45 00:52:37 05:12:20 03:15:10 14
3 Erika Csomor HUN 09:17:48 09:29:13 00:57:34 05:14:53 03:12:20 21
4 Joanna Lawn NZL 09:22:14 09:33:44 00:53:58 05:15:06 03:20:25 31
5 Jessie Donavan USA 09:23:40 09:35:12 01:07:11 05:08:19 03:17:15 35
6 Jennie Hansen USA 09:27:53 09:39:30 01:05:50 05:16:13 03:11:54 46
7 Kim Schwabenbauer USA 09:29:53 09:41:32 01:03:21 05:17:29 03:21:31 53
8 Haley Chura USA 09:29:56 09:41:35 00:48:31 05:19:33 03:34:26 53
9 Sarah Piampiano USA 09:36:07 09:47:54 01:00:50 05:23:48 03:22:43 71
10 Bree Wee USA 09:37:07 09:48:55 00:53:25 05:17:13 03:31:02 73
11 Keiko Tanaka JAP 09:37:10 09:48:58 00:54:21 05:26:56 03:23:47 74
12 Christine Anderson USA 09:47:20 09:59:21 00:54:45 05:28:21 03:33:11 104
13 Jessica Smith USA 09:53:48 10:05:57 00:53:38 05:25:50 03:45:08 124
14 Hillary Biscay USA 09:57:15 10:09:28 00:52:21 05:33:53 03:37:41 134
15 Olesya Prystayko UKR 09:57:31 10:09:44 00:58:38 05:27:14 03:40:30 135
16 Nina Pekerman ISR 09:59:26 10:11:42 00:58:33 05:31:02 03:37:21 141
17 April Gellatly USA 10:02:01 10:14:20 00:56:48 05:29:44 03:40:56 148
18 Marie Danais CAN 10:23:35 10:36:20 00:57:17 05:43:58 03:45:50 198
19 Annie Gervais CAN 10:28:07 10:40:58 01:06:29 05:28:53 03:57:14 207
Molly Roohi USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a
Morgin Chaffin USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a
Amanda Kourtz USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

  • Clemente Alonso-McKernan: 25% (3-1)
  • Victor Zyemtsev: 17% (5-1)
  • Paul Ambrose: 17% (5-1)
  • Paul Amey: 16% (5-1)
  • Luke Bell: 13% (6-1)
  • Bert Jammaer: 2% (42-1)
  • Jozsef Major: 2% (43-1)
  • Trevor Delsaut: 2% (49-1)
  • Victor Zyemtsev: 24% (3-1)
  • Paul Ambrose: 20% (4-1)
  • Paul Amey: 17% (5-1)
  • Luke Bell: 16% (5-1)
  • Daniel Fontana: 10% (9-1)
  • Bert Jammaer: 3% (36-1)
  • Jozsef Major: 3% (36-1)
  • Trevor Delsaut: 3% (37-1)

Female Race Participants

  • Mary Beth Ellis: 53% (1-1)
  • Rebekah Keat: 18% (4-1)
  • Erika Csomor: 14% (6-1)
  • Jessie Donavan: 7% (12-1)
  • Joanna Lawn: 5% (18-1)

IM Sweden 2013 – Predictions

Previous Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Jan Raphael GER 00:48:32 04:26:32 02:45:44 08:04:01
2 Dorian Wagner GER 00:48:38 04:26:31 02:49:49 08:08:06
3 Horst Reichel GER 00:48:16 04:27:09 02:51:00 08:10:12

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Asa Lundström SWE 01:00:17 04:51:45 03:18:19 09:13:27
2 Dana Wagner GER 00:58:55 04:48:47 03:31:30 09:22:32
3 Emi Sakai JPN 01:04:48 04:53:38 03:31:05 09:34:36

Course Records

Last year was the first time that Kalmar was an official Ironman, so all the course records are from 2012:

Leg Gender Record Athlete Date
Total overall 08:04:01 Jan Raphael 2012-08-18
Swim overall 00:48:15 Andi Boecherer 2012-08-18
Bike overall 04:24:20 Karl-Johan Danielsson 2012-08-18
Run overall 02:45:44 Jan Raphael 2012-08-18
Total female 09:13:27 Asa Lundström 2012-08-18
Swim female 00:55:03 Rebekka Essmüller 2012-08-18
Bike female 04:48:42 Helene Malmkvist 2012-08-18
Run female 03:18:19 Asa Lundström 2012-08-18

Course Rating

So far, IM Sweden is the fastest course in my database with a Course Rating of 28:42.

Race Adjustments for IM Sweden

Year Adjustment Swim Adj. Bike Adj. Run Adj. # of Athletes Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating
2012 28:42 00:10 21:54 07:53 25 28:42 00:10 21:54 07:53

Based on the numbers, I have some doubts that the bike course was accurate in 2012 – it’ll be interesting to see if the times are going to be as fast again this year. (Therefore, the predicted times – based on the 2012 course – should be taken with a grain of salt.)

KPR points and Price Money

IM Sweden has 2000 KPR points for the winner. It has a total price purse of 50k$.

Male Race Participants

Rank Name Nation Expected Time Rating Rank Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating
1 David Plese SVN 08:12:08 08:39:46 46 00:54:30 04:42:45 03:00:56
2 Jarmo Hast FIN 08:15:20 08:43:08 65 00:49:59 04:50:23 03:00:03
3 Anton Blokhin UKR 08:18:00 08:45:57 73 00:48:31 04:50:46 03:03:30
4 Karl-Johan Danielsson SWE 08:19:39 08:47:42 82 00:48:53 04:44:38 03:12:06
5 Pedro Gomes POR 08:19:43 08:47:46 84 00:52:44 04:52:47 03:09:15
6 Christophe Bastie FRA 08:22:12 08:50:23 104 00:53:19 04:44:31 03:08:16
7 Jonas Djurback SWE 08:25:24 08:53:46 116 00:49:35 04:52:39 03:07:10
8 Andrey Lyatskiy RUS 08:33:04 09:01:52 164 00:48:28 04:58:43 03:12:40
9 Andi Fuchs AUT 08:36:34 09:05:34 187 00:57:17 04:50:38 03:14:26
10 David Naesvik SWE 08:37:59 09:07:04 196 00:54:53 04:48:32 03:20:10
11 Rinalds Sluckis LAT 08:38:42 09:07:49 200 00:55:54 04:50:39 03:17:55
12 Greg Close USA 08:42:18 09:11:37 227 00:56:47 05:01:56 03:13:00
13 Paul Hawkins GBR 08:50:16 09:20:02 279 00:58:30 05:28:51 03:20:23
14 Jonas Colting SWE 08:50:33 09:20:20 283 00:50:00 04:53:24 03:29:55
15 Ivan Alvarez Gomez ESP 08:50:43 09:20:31 288 00:56:07 05:10:58 03:12:41
16 Fredrik Carlen SWE 08:52:30 09:22:24 301 00:54:56 04:58:27 03:23:01
17 Joni Pinosto FIN 08:59:33 09:29:50 334 00:57:56 05:02:32 03:23:28
18 Stefano Paoli ITA 09:06:00 09:36:39 380 00:53:55 04:57:40 03:41:33
19 Manuel Wyss SWI 09:06:08 09:36:48 382 00:53:08 05:13:21 03:24:03
20 Martin Cain GBR 09:09:58 09:40:50 402 00:57:56 05:08:22 03:27:22
21 Steven Osborne GBR 09:18:09 09:49:29 458 00:57:55 05:29:45 03:19:29
22 Heinrich Sickl AUT 09:19:11 09:50:34 462 00:56:02 05:05:16 03:35:53
23 Ludovic Le Guellec FRA 09:26:50 09:58:39 504 00:58:42 05:17:49 03:37:23
24 Josef Krivanek CZE 09:29:06 10:01:03 516 01:00:30 05:13:59 03:42:18
25 Hirotsugu Kuwabara JAP 09:35:43 10:08:02 550 00:51:59 05:22:54 03:48:58
26 Ivan Kharin RUS 09:43:24 10:16:09 583 01:08:16 05:09:48 03:28:51
27 Ari Saukko FIN 09:50:49 10:23:59 615 00:58:03 05:04:26 04:16:32
28 Andrej Palinsky SVK 10:22:21 10:57:17 672 01:15:47 05:17:46 04:16:49
29 Marek Nemcik SVK 11:15:21 11:53:16 697 01:11:15 05:57:22 04:37:21
Morten Truelsen n/a unrated n/a unrated unrated unrated
Yves Moubayed GER n/a unrated n/a unrated unrated unrated
Lennart Moberg SWE n/a unrated n/a unrated unrated unrated
Stefan Eichheimer GER n/a unrated n/a unrated unrated unrated
Jonas Bergkvist SWE n/a unrated n/a unrated unrated unrated
Pontus Lindberg SWE n/a unrated n/a unrated unrated unrated
Jojje Borssén n/a unrated n/a unrated unrated unrated
Harri Sokk n/a unrated n/a unrated unrated unrated
Andreas Linden SWE n/a unrated n/a unrated unrated unrated

Female Race Participants

I’m not sure if Jodie Swallow is going to race in Sweden or if she entered in case she needs more Kona points. If she does race, she is the clear favorite.

Rank Name Nation Expected Time Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating Rank
1 Jodie Swallow GBR 08:48:12 09:17:51 00:48:07 04:57:34 03:30:52 10
2 Daniela Saemmler GER 09:00:41 09:31:02 00:54:11 05:11:32 03:21:39 23
3 Eva Nystroem Swe 09:06:03 09:36:42 01:01:46 05:11:08 03:21:46 39
4 Britta Martin NZL 09:07:12 09:37:55 01:00:47 05:10:43 03:19:20 41
5 Camilla Lindholm SWE 09:21:42 09:53:14 01:07:51 05:20:23 03:18:12 86
6 Stephanie Jones USA 09:25:07 09:56:50 01:05:44 05:19:50 03:25:51 97
7 Dana Wagner GER 09:27:17 09:59:08 01:01:09 05:25:37 03:35:01 103
8 Kristin Lie NOR 09:32:30 10:04:38 01:11:11 05:17:17 03:31:02 120
9 Maria Lemeseva RUS 09:33:35 10:05:47 01:05:04 05:29:11 03:28:01 122
10 Helene Pallesen DEN 09:43:39 10:16:25 01:09:01 05:41:14 03:22:06 158
11 Jana Candrova CZE 09:47:31 10:20:30 01:03:33 unrated 03:38:13 171
12 Simona Vykoukalova CZE 09:58:03 10:31:37 01:08:26 05:41:29 03:36:23 192
13 Conny Dauben GER 10:21:28 10:56:21 01:08:22 05:45:02 03:59:31 227
14 Zsuzsanna Harsanyi HUN 10:26:56 11:02:08 01:04:07 05:58:48 03:51:28 234
Louise Rundqvist n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a
Emma Graaf n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a
Steffi Steinberg GER n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

  • Jarmo Hast: 26% (3-1)
  • Pedro Gomes: 19% (4-1)
  • David Plese: 16% (5-1)
  • Anton Blokhin: 15% (5-1)
  • Jonas Djurback: 14% (6-1)
  • Christophe Bastie: 9% (10-1)

Female Race Participants

  • Jodie Swallow: 37% (2-1)
  • Britta Martin: 28% (3-1)
  • Eva Nystroem: 14% (6-1)
  • Daniela Saemmler: 10% (9-1)
  • Stephanie Jones: 7% (14-1)
  • Camilla Lindholm: 4% (23-1)
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