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IM France 2012 – Analyzing Results

Race Conditions

Conditions on race day were typical for France – a race adjustment of 7:40 was almost exactly in line with the new course rating of 7:47. Even if the conditions were not super-fast, the two winners set new course records.

Male Results

Frederik van Lierde successfully defended his title, leading almost from start to finish:

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Actual Time Expected Time
1 Frederik Van Lierde BEL 00:47:22 04:35:42 02:53:39 08:21:51 08:27:13
2 Paul Amey GBR 00:48:46 04:55:50 02:52:15 08:42:48 08:26:47
3 Francois Chabaud FRA 00:48:53 04:48:21 03:02:02 08:45:23 08:38:57
4 Bruno Clerbout BEL 00:51:34 05:01:10 02:48:16 08:46:54 09:03:19
5 Sergio Marques PRT 00:55:26 05:02:02 02:45:39 08:48:55 08:57:24
6 Jose Jeuland FRA 00:50:35 05:02:23 02:54:30 08:53:52 09:12:54
7 Axel Zeebroek BEL 00:47:24 04:56:43 03:06:52 08:56:43 08:45:47
8 Trevor Delsaut FRA 00:55:29 05:06:51 02:54:45 09:02:59 08:54:51
9 Mike Schifferle SWI 01:00:11 04:57:22 02:58:22 09:07:08 09:03:39
10 Jonas Djurback SWE 00:50:30 05:02:36 03:10:39 09:09:28 n/a
11 Marcel Bischof GER 00:57:16 04:59:23 03:12:07 09:14:56 09:28:49
12 Anthony Pannier FRA 00:47:22 04:50:06 03:35:43 09:19:09 n/a
13 Rafael Gomes POR 00:55:25 05:22:48 03:15:08 09:39:50 n/a
14 Pierre Dorez FRA 00:52:31 04:52:05 03:55:32 09:46:09 n/a
15 Ludovic Le Guellec FRA 00:59:41 05:25:09 03:34:12 10:05:28 09:51:02
16 Ulrik Schaarup DEN 00:59:48 05:02:58 04:54:07 11:03:36 n/a

Late entry Paul Amey used his good marathon to run by Francois Chabaud to secure the second place.

Female Results

Tine Deckers took control of the race on the bike, and then went on to post a strong marathon to win in a convincing fashion:

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Actual Time Expected Time
1 Tine Deckers BEL 00:57:18 05:10:03 03:02:31 09:16:05 09:28:51
2 Gina Crawford NZL 00:52:10 05:20:04 03:07:14 09:26:25 09:27:25
3 Kristin Moeller GER 01:02:47 05:27:58 03:00:29 09:37:07 09:43:09
4 Tamara Kozulina UKR 01:00:33 05:30:15 03:09:51 09:47:34 09:45:15
5 Martina Dogana ITA 00:59:42 05:38:54 03:10:33 09:55:09 09:46:13
6 Beth Walsh USA 00:59:48 05:44:05 03:08:32 09:58:26 n/a
7 Anne Basso FRA 00:55:18 05:39:06 03:48:16 10:29:12 10:16:54

Gina Crawford had a solid race and finished second, Kristin Moeller needed the best marathon to run into third place.

Working on my next Rating Report …

I’ve started to work on my next Rating Report which will have a look at affairs before the first wave of Kona qualifiers is decided at the end of July. If you have any specific issues you’d like to have analyzed, please let me know. In order to be notified as soon as the report is available, please subscribe to my mailing list using the form in the right-hand column. I’ve been quite busy lately, but I plan to have it out before the end of June.

IM France 2012 – Predictions (Main Post)

If you are looking for additional information on the participants, you can find a full list of their pro results in the detail post.

Previous Results

IM France is one of the classic races – even if it used to be called “Niece” and was contested on the “Niece distance” (4-120-30). For quite a while now the race has be re-branded as IM France and is an iron-distance race. Especially the bike course is quite hard, the total course is “medium fast” – with a course rating of 7:14 it is similar to IM Arizona.

Last year’s race was won by Frederik Van Lierde (8:39) and Sylvia Felt (9:34). The course records are held by Marcel Zamora (8:25:28) and Tine Deckers (9:21:29).

Male Participants

Last year’s winner is back to defend his title:

Rank Name Nation Expected Time Rating Rank
1 Frederik Van Lierde BEL 08:27:06 08:34:32 23
2 Marcel Zamora ESP 08:36:31 08:44:05 46
3 Francois Chabaud FRA 08:38:50 08:46:26 62
4 Herve Faure FRA 08:44:30 08:52:11 96
5 Axel Zeebroek BEL 08:45:40 08:53:22 101
6 Trevor Delsaut FRA 08:54:44 09:02:34 148
7 Sergio Marques PRT 08:57:17 09:05:09 162
8 Domenico Passuello ITA 08:57:23 09:05:16 163
9 Sebastian Pedraza ITA 09:01:45 09:09:41 193
10 Bruno Clerbout BEL 09:03:11 09:11:09 205
11 Mike Schifferle SWI 09:03:31 09:11:29 209
12 Jose Jeuland FRA 09:12:46 09:20:52 292
13 Nicholas Peter Munoz ESP 09:15:58 09:24:07 308
14 Scott Defilippis USA 09:16:10 09:24:19 313
15 Marcel Bischof GER 09:28:41 09:37:01 406
16 Ludovic Le Guellec FRA 09:50:53 09:59:33 558
17 Christophe Hamard   10:10:14 10:19:11 674
18 Anthony Pannier   n/a unrated n/a
19 Cedric Lassonde FRA n/a unrated n/a
20 Pierre Dorez   n/a unrated n/a
21 Zoltan Senczyszyn   n/a unrated n/a
22 David Vazquez ESP n/a unrated n/a
23 Ivan Kharin   n/a unrated n/a
24 Lance Armstrong   n/a unrated n/a
25 Ulrik Schaarup   n/a unrated n/a
26 Rafael Gomes   n/a unrated n/a

Freddy also has the best winning chances:

  • Frederik Van Lierde: 50%
  • Marcel Zamora: 20%
  • Francois Chabaud: 18%
  • Axel Zeebroek: 5%

The other main contender might be Lance Armstrong. He hasn’t finished any full IMs yet, so I can’t predict his performance based on past results. At least at the time of writing (Monday evening before the race), it was very doubtful if Lance would be able to start based on the investigation by USADA.

Female Participants

On the women’s side, course record holder Tine Deckers will try to repeat her 2010 win, but she only has the second best rating in the field:

Rank Name Nation Expected Time Rating Rank
1 Gina Crawford NZL 09:27:17 09:35:36 23
2 Tine Deckers BEL 09:28:43 09:37:03 30
3 Kristin Moeller GER 09:43:00 09:51:33 65
4 Tamara Kozulina UKR 09:45:07 09:53:41 70
5 Martina Dogana ITA 09:46:05 09:54:40 72
6 Suzanne Blackborrow AUS 10:11:28 10:20:26 158
7 Anne Basso FRA 10:16:46 10:25:48 176

Here are the winning odds:

  • Gina Crawford: 48%
  • Tine Deckers: 25%
  • Kristin Moeller: 14%
  • Tamara Kozulina: 10%

Since coming back to racing after having a child, Gina has posted solid results, so I consider her the favorite for the race.

IM Regensburg 2012 – Analyzing Results

Race Conditions

With an adjustment of 8:06 conditions on race day were typical for Regensburg (new course rating of 9:25). Moving the date from August to June didn’t seem to have a big impact: From what I heard it was getting pretty warm during the run, but otherwise you had pretty good racing conditions.

Male Results

Dirk Bockel won is first Ironman, setting a new course record:

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Actual Time Expected Time
1 Dirk Bockel LUX 00:45:03 04:31:08 02:51:56 08:11:59 08:18:09
2 Michael Raelert GER 00:45:01 04:35:32 02:54:40 08:18:53 n/a
3 Mike Schifferle SWI 01:00:24 04:40:13 02:50:52 08:36:53 09:05:10
4 Jens Kaiser GER 00:57:00 04:43:28 02:58:48 08:43:57 n/a
5 Petr Vabrousek CZE 00:51:03 04:50:06 03:02:06 08:47:53 08:49:14
6 Daniel Halksworth GBR 00:45:05 04:52:18 03:08:59 08:50:38 n/a
7 Andreas Wolpert GER 00:54:35 04:50:15 03:05:22 08:55:25 09:09:17
8 Tomas Mika CZE 00:50:19 05:10:58 03:09:06 09:14:48 n/a
9 Jarda Brynda CZE 00:50:20 05:09:31 03:21:35 09:26:24 09:00:43
10 Matjaz Kovac SVN 00:53:35 05:08:07 03:42:23 09:50:00 09:41:28
11 Florian Kratz GER 01:01:22 05:25:02 03:52:42 10:23:38 n/a
12 Marek Nemcik SVK 01:08:01 05:38:10 04:05:48 10:58:33 12:10:56

Michael Raelert finished his first Ironman and seemed to race pretty smart: He set a new swim course record and started the bike pretty strongly. But when Dirk Bockel took the lead around the 160km mark, he continued to race within himself, still posting a sub-3h marathon. Both Dirk and Michael solidified their standings in the KPR and are pretty much guaranteed a Kona slot. And both of them are solid TOP10 contenders for Kona – maybe even more …

Female Results

On the women’s side, Heidi Sessner (probably better know under her maiden name of Heidi Jesberger) also won her first IM:

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Actual Time Expected Time
1 Heidi Sessner GER 00:53:22 05:16:55 03:29:15 09:43:52 09:56:49
2 Ute Streiter AUT 01:03:55 05:30:42 03:42:03 10:22:43 10:22:53

I’m surprised that there were only two female pros racing .. this would have been a good opportunity to score some KPR points or earn a bit of price money.

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