For the last few years, I have published seedings before the big races. These seedings also include Winning Odds that show the probability for the top seeds. In this post, I will review the seedings for the significant 2024 races and evaluate how accurately I have predicted the actual winners. This analysis will cover all the Diamond and Gold tier races, where there typically isn’t an “obvious” top-seed athlete expected to win if nothing strange happens.
Women
The table shows the race, the calculated top-seeded female athlete, the winning odds for the top seed in this race, the actual winner of the race, and whether there’s a match between the prediction and the actual winner.
| Race | Top Seed | Winning Odds |
Winner | Correct Prediction |
| Miami T100 | Findlay | 28% | Lee | |
| 70.3 California | Knibb | 76% | Knibb | X |
| Singapore T100 | Gentle | 50% | Gentle | X |
| IM Texas | Matthews | 60% | Matthews | X |
| 70.3 St. George | Findlay | 60% | Findlay | X |
| 70.3 Mallorca | Philipp | 67% | Pallant-Browne | |
| The Championship | Lee | 39% | Lee | X |
| 70.3 Chattanooga | True | 35% | Pallant-Browne | |
| IM Hamburg | Matthews | 57% | Hering | |
| San Francisco T100 | Knibb | 49% | Knibb | X |
| 70.3 Boulder | Salthouse | 82% | Salthouse | X |
| IM Cairns | Simpson | 36% | Berry | |
| 70.3 Mont Tremblant | Findlay | 43% | Findlay | X |
| 70.3 Les Sables D’Olonne | Pierre | 28% | Madsen | |
| Challenge Roth | Haug | 40% | Haug | X |
| IM Vitoria-Gasteiz | Matthews | 42% | Matthews | X |
| IM Lake Placid | Hering | 62% | Lewis | |
| London T100 | Gentle | 33% | Gentle | X |
| 70.3 Tallinn | Matthews | 42% | Pohle | |
| 70.3 Zell am See | Matthews | 38% | Pohle | |
| IM World Championships | Haug | 55% | Philipp | |
| Ibiza T100 | Knibb | 62% | Knibb | X |
| Lake Las Vegas T100 | Knibb | 75% | Knibb | X |
| Dubai T100 | Knibb | 61% | Knibb | X |
| 70.3 Western Australia | Barthelemy | 18% | Sanchez | |
| 70.3 World Championship | Knibb | 74% | Knibb | X |
| 26 races | Average: | 50% | Matches: | 15 |
Men
The table shows the race, the calculated top-seeded male athlete, the winning odds for the top seed in this race, the actual winner of the race, and whether there’s a match between the prediction and the actual winner.
| Race | Top Seed | Winning Odds |
Winner | Correct Prediction |
| Miami T100 | West | 25% | Ditlev | |
| 70.3 California | Long | 43% | Sanders | |
| Singapore T100 | West | 34% | Keulen | |
| IM Texas | Lange | 48% | Lange | X |
| 70.3 St. George | Long | 55% | Long | X |
| 70.3 Mallorca | Iden | 55% | Mann | |
| The Championship | Smith | 23% | Smith | X |
| 70.3 Chattanooga | Laundry | 48% | Hanson | |
| San Francisco T100 | Ditlev | 18% | Van Riel | |
| 70.3 Boulder | Foley | 23% | Foley | X |
| IM Cairns | Currie | 45% | Burton | |
| 70.3 Mont Tremblant | Sanders | 39% | Sanders | X |
| 70.3 Les Sables D’Olonne | Iden | 26% | Mann | |
| Challenge Roth | Ditlev | 51% | Ditlev | X |
| IM Vitoria-Gasteiz | Laidlow | 32% | Benito Lopez | |
| IM Lake Placid | Skipper | 26% | Foley | |
| London T100 | Ditlev | 16% | Laidlow | |
| IM Germany | Lange | 50% | Blummenfelt | |
| 70.3 Tallinn | Bitados | 36% | Bitados | X |
| 70.3 Zell am See | Noodt | 41% | Noodt | X |
| Ibiza T100 | Van Riel | 27% | Van Riel | X |
| Lake Las Vegas T100 | Van Riel | 52% | Geens | |
| IM World Championships | Iden | 47% | Lange | |
| Dubai T100 | Van Riel | 49% | Van Riel | X |
| 70.3 Western Australia | Phillips | 18% | Barnaby | |
| 70.3 World Championship | Wilde | 21% | Geens | |
| 26 races | Average: | 36% | Matches: | 10 |
Analysis
Pulling together the data from the table above, you get the following numbers:
| Races | Avg Odds | Matches | Match % | |
| Women | 26 | 50% | 15 | 58% |
| Men | 26 | 36% | 10 | 38% |
| Both | 52 | 43% | 25 | 48% |
This data indicates a good correlation between the posted odds and the actual outcome of the races (43% odds before the race, 48% actual frequency for the top seed). If anything, my top picks win slightly more often than expected, but the difference is too small to make additional changes to the prediction algorithm. I’ll continue to watch the matches – let’s have another look a year from now!