Ironman Germany 2016 (July 3rd) – Predictions

IMFraLogoUpdate June 28th: Miranda Carfrae has won IM Austria, so she is unlikely to race in Frankfurt.

Update June 28th: For the interesting back story of Caroline Livesey, please have a look at my profile on her.

Update July 1st: After the Pro Meeting, it’s clear that a number of athletes from the original startlist won’t be racing. I’ve crossed out all of those who have not signed in.

Previous Winners

Year Male Winner Time Female Winner Time
2005 Normann Stadler (GER) 08:20:50 Lisa Bentley (CAN) 09:15:31
2006 Cameron Brown (NZL) 08:13:40 Andrea Steinbecher (GER) 09:16:17
2007 Timo Bracht (GER) 08:09:15 Nicole Leder (GER) 09:04:11
2008 Chris McCormack (AUS) 07:59:55 Chrissie Wellington (GBR) 08:51:24
2009 Timo Bracht (GER) 07:59:15 Sandra Wallenhorst (GER) 08:58:08
2010 Andreas Raelert (GER) 08:05:15 Sandra Wallenhorst (GER) 09:04:27
2011 Faris Al-Sultan (GER) 08:13:50 Caroline Steffen (SUI) 09:12:13
2012 Marino Vanhoenacker (BEL) 08:03:31 Caroline Steffen (SUI) 08:52:33
2013 Eneko Llanos (ESP) 07:59:58 Camilla Pedersen (DEN) 08:56:01
2014 Sebastian Kienle (GER) 07:55:14 Corinne Abraham (GBR) 08:52:40
2015 Jan Frodeno (GER) 07:49:48 Daniela Ryf (SUI) 08:51:00

Last Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Jan Frodeno GER 00:46:02 04:08:43 02:50:49 07:49:48
2 Sebastian Kienle GER 00:50:03 04:11:07 02:56:44 08:01:39
3 Andi Boecherer GER 00:46:56 04:14:05 02:58:14 08:03:49

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Daniela Ryf SUI 00:52:46 04:47:50 03:06:06 08:51:00
2 Julia Gajer GER 00:52:47 04:55:22 03:09:04 09:01:58
3 Caroline Steffen SUI 00:52:42 04:58:52 03:16:26 09:11:55

Course Records

Leg Gender Record Athlete Date
Total overall 07:49:48 Jan Frodeno 2015-07-05
Swim overall 00:42:17 Jan Sibbersen 2004-07-12
Bike overall 04:08:43 Jan Frodeno 2015-07-05
Run overall 02:42:33 Timo Bracht 2008-07-06
Total female 08:51:00 Daniela Ryf 2015-07-05
Swim female 00:45:04 Amanda Stevens 2012-07-08
Bike female 04:44:25 Natascha Badmann 2014-07-06
Run female 02:57:13 Kristin Moeller 2013-07-07

Course Rating

The Course Rating for IM Germany is 11:53.

Race Adjustments for IM Germany

Year Adjustment Swim Adj. Bike Adj. Run Adj. # of Finishers Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating
2005 -03:26 00:41 04:40 -04:09 21 -03:26 00:41 04:40 -04:09
2006 12:14 n/a n/a n/a 21 04:24 00:41 04:40 -04:09
2007 20:42 01:41 14:05 04:59 35 09:50 01:11 09:23 00:25
2008 23:08 04:28 08:29 06:33 21 of 28 13:10 02:17 09:05 02:28
2009 17:33 02:56 13:26 -00:13 19 of 25 14:02 02:27 10:10 01:48
2010 08:27 00:46 04:58 01:02 30 13:06 02:07 09:08 01:38
2011 08:18 01:28 05:50 01:11 41 12:25 02:00 08:35 01:34
2012 09:31 03:13 04:27 00:45 37 12:03 02:11 07:59 01:27
2013 16:32 02:16 09:16 05:09 69 12:33 02:11 08:09 01:55
2014 12:34 01:59 13:41 01:46 39 of 56 12:33 02:10 08:46 01:54
2015 05:12 -00:29 08:34 -02:32 32 of 44 11:53 01:54 08:45 01:27

KPR points and Prize Money

IM Germany is a P-4000 race and the winners receive an Automatic Qualifier slot. It has a total prize purse of 150.000 US$.

Female Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Consistency Overall
1 1 Daniela Ryf SUI 08:46:44 08:59:41 00:50:15 04:47:35 03:03:55 100% +0% -0% (5) 1
2 2 Mirinda Carfrae AUS 08:54:21 09:08:15 00:53:21 05:00:05 02:55:55 32% +20% -49% (13) (3)
3 32 Melissa Hauschildt AUS 09:05:44 09:32:16 00:53:28 04:57:45 03:09:32 39% +61% -0% (2) (35)
4 8 Diana Riesler GER 09:14:17 09:31:45 00:55:37 04:54:17 03:19:22 46% +14% -40% (18) 32
5 4 Kristin Moeller GER 09:16:01 09:35:55 01:00:27 05:09:43 03:00:51 83% +15% -2% (17) 40
6 23 Astrid Stienen GER 09:22:04 09:46:33 00:56:11 05:00:11 03:20:42 54% +15% -31% (8) 62
7 6 Daniela Saemmler GER 09:23:10 09:40:22 00:53:09 05:04:09 03:20:52 85% +0% -15% (7) 49
8 33 Emma Bilham SUI 09:23:55 09:48:12 00:52:41 05:09:03 03:17:11 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (65)
9 25 Katja Konschak GER 09:29:51 09:59:46 00:50:08 05:19:26 03:15:17 51% +25% -24% (15) 89
10 5 Natascha Schmitt GER 09:31:11 10:11:37 00:51:41 05:19:17 03:15:14 36% +16% -48% (5) 111
11 12 Dimity-Lee Duke AUS 09:36:13 09:45:48 00:58:44 05:12:05 03:20:23 76% +24% -0% (9) 61
12 22 Bianca Steurer AUT 09:36:29 09:53:23 00:56:02 05:15:36 03:19:51 74% +26% -0% (4) 77
13 27 Carolin Lehrieder GER 09:36:31 09:57:37 00:52:54 05:16:08 03:22:28 30% +23% -46% (6) 84
14 24 Verena Walter GER 09:38:18 10:02:37 00:57:21 05:09:29 03:26:28 53% +29% -18% (5) 94
15 7 Evi Neuscheler GER 09:38:32 09:55:05 01:01:03 05:05:03 03:27:25 60% +40% -0% (3) (80)
16 10 Saleta Castro Nogueira ESP 09:43:39 10:17:00 00:53:41 05:19:02 03:25:56 39% +35% -26% (9) 119
17 14 Katharina Grohmann GER 09:44:32 10:05:32 01:07:59 05:12:03 03:19:30 100% +0% -0% (11) 100
18 19 Caroline Livesey GBR 09:48:44 10:08:45 00:58:33 05:15:25 03:29:45 61% +0% -39% (6) 106
19 26 Mariana Andrade BRA 09:50:16 10:17:33 00:58:04 05:14:04 03:33:08 14% +49% -37% (11) 124
20 13 Christine Fletcher CAN 09:57:34 10:10:32 00:56:42 05:19:25 03:36:27 92% +8% -0% (20) 109
21 17 Petra Krejcova CZE 09:59:14 10:25:02 01:00:50 05:33:11 03:20:12 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (151)
22 9 Celia Kuch GER 10:01:26 10:19:42 01:01:38 05:18:07 03:36:41 79% +21% -0% (17) 132
23 16 Helena Herrero Gomez ESP 10:06:14 10:30:23 00:58:33 05:42:18 03:20:23 25% +0% -75% (5) 160
24 29 Nicole Woysch GER 10:07:46 10:54:33 00:55:54 05:16:16 03:50:36 22% +3% -75% (21) (174)
25 28 Nina Kuhn GER 10:09:26 10:35:41 00:59:08 05:28:28 03:36:50 62% +0% -38% (2) (167)
26 18 Angela Kuehnlein GER 10:11:22 10:29:50 01:00:19 05:31:55 03:34:08 34% +27% -39% (5) 158
15 Lotty Harari PAN n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)

Male Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Consistency Overall
1 51 Sebastian Kienle GER 08:00:16 08:14:29 00:48:15 04:14:21 02:52:41 85% +12% -3% (11) 3
2 53 Andi Boecherer GER 08:05:01 08:32:01 00:45:14 04:16:44 02:58:04 58% +39% -3% (12) 27
3 55 Bas Diederen NED 08:08:01 08:30:09 00:45:55 04:23:46 02:53:19 42% +10% -48% (15) 22
4 60 Clemente Alonso McKernan ESP 08:10:13 08:30:56 00:45:24 04:30:23 02:49:27 56% +14% -31% (13) (24)
5 56 Timothy O’Donnell USA 08:11:14 08:27:01 00:45:57 04:27:30 02:52:47 14% +63% -23% (11) 16
6 112 Eneko Llanos ESP 08:12:39 08:23:10 00:46:14 04:22:39 02:58:46 90% +0% -10% (24) 8
7 90 Michael Weiss AUT 08:18:24 08:32:17 00:52:25 04:23:07 02:57:52 89% +11% -0% (13) 28
8 72 Christian Kramer GER 08:20:53 08:38:43 00:45:49 04:30:47 02:59:17 72% +6% -22% (17) 53
9 62 Denis Chevrot FRA 08:23:32 08:36:57 00:45:20 04:36:20 02:56:52 32% +12% -55% (8) 46
10 69 Joe Gambles AUS 08:23:57 08:40:16 00:46:53 04:32:54 02:59:10 44% +7% -50% (7) (56)
11 59 Marko Albert EST 08:25:34 08:36:12 00:45:25 04:33:42 03:01:27 91% +6% -3% (14) 42
12 97 Victor Del Corral ESP 08:26:28 08:34:42 00:53:44 04:36:06 02:51:38 70% +0% -30% (13) 39
13 115 Igor Amorelli BRA 08:27:12 08:46:09 00:46:03 04:33:37 03:02:31 41% +15% -44% (9) 74
14 58 Johann Ackermann GER 08:27:16 08:58:33 00:47:05 04:30:52 03:04:19 26% +0% -74% (6) (115)
15 94 Marc Duelsen GER 08:27:31 08:46:01 00:50:09 04:32:57 02:59:25 60% +0% -40% (6) (72)
16 116 Jeremy Jurkiewicz FRA 08:29:41 08:45:10 00:45:58 04:41:34 02:57:09 62% +0% -38% (11) (70)
17 61 Alberto Casadei ITA 08:31:58 08:48:52 00:45:53 04:42:46 02:58:19 38% +16% -46% (7) 83
18 96 Anton Blokhin UKR 08:35:14 08:57:29 00:47:13 04:39:45 03:03:16 56% +3% -42% (19) 112
19 67 Herve Faure FRA 08:35:46 08:50:23 00:49:29 04:38:02 03:03:15 45% +0% -55% (8) (88)
20 70 Esben Hovgaard DEN 08:36:37 08:55:54 00:51:54 04:36:51 03:02:52 35% +25% -40% (9) 105
21 85 Pascal Ramali GER 08:36:51 09:04:29 00:56:57 04:31:01 03:03:52 49% +0% -51% (2) (146)
22 117 Markus Thomschke GER 08:37:14 08:57:39 00:51:25 04:32:26 03:08:22 62% +12% -26% (15) 113
23 87 Sylvain Sudrie FRA 08:41:00 09:03:26 00:48:03 04:41:30 03:06:26 53% +0% -47% (2) (138)
24 109 Gudmund Snilstveit NOR 08:41:33 08:59:30 00:54:57 04:34:15 03:07:21 61% +28% -11% (7) 122
25 111 Christian Brader GER 08:41:36 08:54:08 00:54:20 04:43:57 02:58:19 84% +6% -10% (32) 97
26 104 Roman Deisenhofer GER 08:43:12 09:05:52 00:51:16 04:37:03 03:09:53 38% +62% -0% (4) 152
27 120 Bertrand Billard FRA 08:44:43 09:09:16 00:47:37 04:35:24 03:16:42 9% +17% -73% (7) 163
28 78 Matic Modic SLO 08:44:54 09:04:24 00:53:13 04:42:02 03:04:39 47% +39% -13% (6) 144
29 95 Mike Schifferle SUI 08:45:13 09:02:15 00:57:54 04:39:38 03:02:41 84% +12% -4% (54) 130
30 68 Marton Flander HUN 08:45:59 09:08:38 00:47:32 04:55:17 02:58:10 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (161)
31 80 Julian Mutterer GER 08:47:05 09:09:47 00:50:07 04:48:11 03:03:47 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (166)
32 86 Daniil Sapunov UKR 08:49:05 09:11:52 00:46:52 04:50:28 03:06:45 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (175)
33 121 Ivan Risti ITA 08:51:27 09:06:43 00:47:39 04:47:41 03:11:07 77% +0% -23% (5) 154
34 114 Will Clarke GBR 08:52:22 09:20:51 00:48:30 04:40:17 03:18:36 37% +0% -63% (2) (198)
35 79 Gergö Molnar HUN 08:53:51 09:08:36 00:48:27 04:47:39 03:12:45 58% +0% -42% (6) 160
36 92 Denis Sketako SLO 08:57:28 09:17:42 00:56:11 04:44:23 03:11:54 100% +0% -0% (2) (194)
37 119 Michael Davidson ZAF 08:58:39 09:13:32 00:54:43 04:50:54 03:08:01 54% +0% -46% (4) 179
38 65 Hywel Davies GBR 09:08:26 09:24:30 00:57:44 04:51:17 03:14:24 95% +5% -0% (6) (206)
39 75 Felipe De Oliveira Manente BRA 09:11:33 09:37:20 00:51:38 04:55:42 03:19:14 18% +7% -75% (8) 241
40 71 Ivan Jezko SVK 09:12:21 09:43:49 00:57:39 04:52:49 03:16:53 39% +33% -28% (9) 254
41 74 Michael Louys BEL 09:15:03 09:35:44 00:59:56 04:49:47 03:20:20 55% +15% -30% (7) 238
42 110 Thomas Bosch GER 09:18:47 09:42:50 00:57:32 04:59:28 03:16:47 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (252)
43 82 Young Hwan Oh KOR 09:20:37 09:57:49 00:59:20 04:59:04 03:17:12 22% +32% -46% (4) (272)
44 118 Eneko Elosegui ESP 09:20:54 09:38:41 00:56:10 04:47:39 03:32:06 73% +25% -1% (14) 246
45 84 Alfred Rahm GER 09:27:15 09:50:54 01:02:06 04:58:10 03:21:59 60% +1% -40% (17) 263
46 113 Lukas Polan CZE 09:30:04 09:56:55 01:00:12 04:59:39 03:25:12 30% +15% -55% (9) 271
47 73 Ludovic Le Guellec FRA 09:32:29 10:13:14 00:59:17 05:13:05 03:15:07 56% +5% -39% (18) 285
48 107 David Jilek CZE 09:33:15 09:53:28 00:57:29 04:57:06 03:33:39 74% +0% -26% (5) 266
49 83 Gilian Oriet SUI 09:37:53 09:54:53 00:55:39 05:01:05 03:36:09 26% +12% -62% (9) 268
50 66 Vincent Depuiset FRA 09:38:52 09:59:28 01:06:36 05:05:10 03:22:06 66% +15% -19% (7) 276
51 91 Remmert Wielinga NED 10:00:03 10:52:28 01:10:06 04:57:28 03:47:29 7% +11% -82% (6) (298)
52 89 Michal Volejnik CZE 10:54:41 11:22:52 01:01:30 05:16:11 04:32:00 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (303)
53 81 Marek Nemcik SVK 11:26:49 12:04:43 01:09:16 05:38:51 04:33:42 39% +20% -41% (33) 303
63 Maciej Chmura POL n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
77 Rayco Marrero Avero ESP n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (1 IM Pro race) (n/a)
88 Kevin Thewes GER n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
98 Olivier Esser BEL n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
99 David Krupicka CZE n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
105 Alexander Schilling GER n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
106 Youri Severin NED n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
108 Petr Bednar CZE n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
122 Timo Moeschk GER n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)

KPR Situation

Female Race Participants

Similar to Sebi, all Daniela needs to make it to Kona is to finish an Ironman. As there are only 28 July slots for the women, they need about 4.500 points to qualify.

Emma Bilham (3.515) and Bianca Steuerer (3.235) are the best placed athletes, they should be okay with a sixth place. Dimity-Lee Duke already has five results, so even with her 3.330 points she needs to finish fifth – as do Kristin Möller and Diana Riesler. Daniela Sämmler (2.400) and Verena Walter (2.510) are looking for a fourth place. The next group needs a podium finish – Mariana Andrade, Katharina Grohmann, Caroline Livesey, Natascha Schmitt and Astrid Stienen all have between 2.100 and 1.500 points.

Male Race Participants

Before Frankfurt, a lot of athletes are looking to score well in order to get the points needed to qualify. Eneko Llanos is the only athlete who is already safe for Kona, he wants to race Frankfurt to work on his race plan. Sebastian Kienle, Tim O’Donnell and probably Andi Boecherer just need an Ironman finish in order to be eligible for a July slot.

Next up is a group of athletes that are close to the projected cutoff of 3.500 points: Michael Weiss (3.470) and Markus Thomschke (3.130) are closest but already have five results. Similar to Marko Albert (3.095) they should be okay with a 9th place (855 points). The French group of Jeremy Jurkiewicz, Bertrand Billard and Denis Chevrot are around 2.400 points, they have to look for a seventh place (1.335 points). There is another group around 2.000 points (Christian Kramer who also has five results already, Victor Del Corral, Joe Gambles, Clemente Alsonso) they probably need a 6th or better (1.670).

Winning Odds

Female Race Participants

Mirinda Carfrae is on the startlist, but probably only as a backup for Austria the week before. Therefore a showdown with Kona champion Daniela Ryf will likely have to wait until October. Even with Rinny on the start line, Dani is the clear favorite and if she is anywhere close to last year’s form, there is no doubt that she will continue her winning streak. If anyone is going to challenge her, it could be Mel Hauschildt. She has been injured for some time, she is rumored to be in a really good bike shape and hopefully she’ll be able to run well on race day.

After last year’s second place by Julia Gajer, a lot of German women are eying the podium: Diana Riesler didn’t have a good race at Lanzarote, Kristin Möller still needs more points after a fifth place in Brasil, Astrid Stienen has had a long focused build towards Frankfurt this year and Daniela Sämmler wants to show that her win at IM Mallorca was just a step on her way to Kona.

  • Daniela Ryf: 45% (1-1)
  • Mirinda Carfrae: 30% (2-1)
  • Diana Riesler: 8% (11-1)
  • Melissa Hauschildt: 8% (12-1)

Male Race Participants

Sebastian Kienle, 2014 winner of IM Frankfurt and IM Hawaii, is back in Frankfurt to reclaim the first of the titles he lost to Jan Frodeno last year. Sebi is the favorite going into the race but he faces strong competition. Last year Andi Boecherer had a great race to finish in third, this year his prep races have been going well and he seems to be ready to challenge Sebi. Tim O’Donnell is an interesting addition to the field – after his second place in Kona he wants to show he can race well against the Germans in their home country. Bas Diederen has raced well in Frankfurt a number of times, and the 2013 champion Eneko Llanos has hopefully figured out his stomach issues on the run. I’m be pretty sure that it’s going to take at least a sub-8 finish to win the race – even if Frodo’s course record from last year will be hard to beat.

  • Sebastian Kienle: 45% (1-1)
  • Andi Boecherer: 18% (4-1)
  • Clemente Alonso McKernan: 12% (8-1)
  • Bas Diederen: 8% (11-1)
  • Timothy O’Donnell: 7% (14-1)
  • Eneko Llanos: 3% (30-1)
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