Ironman Hawaii 2016 – Male Pro Predictions

This is an excerpt of the data in my 2016 Kona Rating Report. (Find out more in this info post, you can download the report here).

Male Race Participants

Here are my predictions for the male Kona field.

One important disclaimer: This is a statistical analysis, but “past performance is not an indicator of future performance” – at least not down to the last few important seconds or minute or two. The results for an “experiment of one” (such as the Kona 2016 race) are usually different to averages: People have a great day or a crappy one, some weird things may happen (such as a mechanical or a penalty) or athletes may decide to “go for it” and blow up on the run. So my data is just an indication of what may happen and the race still has to be raced. In addition, the focus shouldn’t be on absolute times but on the comparison between different athletes – e.g. not that my expected swim time for Frodo is exactly 49:56 (the actual time can be influcenced by a lot of factors) but that he should be about three and a half minutes faster than Sebi. Also the data shows how close the racing in Kona is expected to be – there are less ten minutes between for example 8th seeded Andi Boecherer and 33rd seeded Fabio Carvalho. Ten minutes is easily the difference between a good day and a bad day. At least for me, the data and predictions make it easier during the race to spot things that are different from what’s normal for each of the athletes and make following the coverage more interesting.

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Rating Swim Bike Run
1 1 Jan Frodeno GER 08:09:06 08:07:15 00:49:56 04:26:24 02:47:46
2 2 Sebastian Kienle GER 08:17:57 08:12:23 00:53:33 04:22:35 02:56:50
3 9 Andreas Raelert GER 08:18:26 08:22:24 00:51:59 04:30:51 02:50:36
4 3 Brent McMahon CAN 08:20:51 08:12:59 00:51:20 04:29:46 02:54:46
5 4 Andy Potts USA 08:21:54 08:23:08 00:50:18 04:34:03 02:52:34
6 8 Timothy O’Donnell USA 08:22:11 08:36:59 00:51:15 04:30:40 02:55:16
7 20 Patrick Lange GER 08:22:25 08:22:32 00:52:26 04:37:02 02:47:57
8 16 Andi Boecherer GER 08:25:29 08:26:08 00:51:03 04:25:59 03:03:27
9 6 Eneko Llanos ESP 08:26:15 08:22:51 00:51:42 04:28:46 03:00:48
10 12 Frederik Van Lierde BEL 08:26:19 08:22:37 00:51:31 04:29:28 03:00:20
11 10 Tyler Butterfield BMU 08:26:49 08:35:36 00:52:09 04:31:45 02:57:55
12 31 Timo Bracht GER 08:27:20 08:24:07 00:53:07 04:34:51 02:54:22
13 18 Cyril Viennot FRA 08:27:57 08:32:30 00:53:47 04:35:05 02:54:05
14 5 Tim Van Berkel AUS 08:28:17 08:28:55 00:51:18 04:37:26 02:54:32
15 39 Will Clarke GBR 08:28:56 08:34:13 00:53:14 04:42:20 02:48:22
16 44 Ivan Rana ESP 08:29:27 08:25:23 00:51:25 04:43:17 02:49:44
17 29 Luke McKenzie AUS 08:30:12 08:34:07 00:51:59 04:28:58 03:04:14
18 11 Pete Jacobs AUS 08:30:26 08:48:31 00:50:22 04:35:36 02:59:28
19 19 David Dellow AUS 08:30:45 08:25:20 00:50:56 04:38:07 02:56:42
20 27 Bart Aernouts BEL 08:30:47 08:26:01 00:56:20 04:37:43 02:51:44
21 14 Boris Stein GER 08:31:03 08:29:44 00:57:38 04:33:01 02:55:24
22 33 Jesse Thomas USA 08:31:32 08:32:00 00:55:07 04:37:37 02:53:48
23 40 Ronnie Schildknecht SUI 08:31:32 08:27:26 00:56:00 04:36:03 02:54:29
24 32 David McNamee GBR 08:31:33 08:26:14 00:51:40 04:44:52 02:50:01
25 46 Joe Skipper GBR 08:31:42 08:35:40 00:57:57 04:33:30 02:55:15
26 59 Callum Millward NZL 08:32:02 08:31:20 00:52:13 04:40:05 02:54:44
27 24 James Cunnama ZAF 08:32:55 08:33:58 00:53:13 04:37:48 02:56:54
28 37 Michael Weiss AUT 08:33:06 08:32:02 00:58:40 04:28:45 03:00:41
29 21 Ben Hoffman USA 08:33:35 08:33:32 00:52:06 04:33:53 03:02:36
30 51 Jordan Rapp USA 08:34:17 08:28:38 00:56:12 04:34:23 02:58:43
31 7 Lionel Sanders CAN 08:34:22 08:31:14 01:00:11 04:35:12 02:53:59
32 15 Tim Don GBR 08:34:32 08:27:38 00:51:42 04:40:01 02:57:48
33 53 Fabio Carvalho BRA 08:35:07 08:50:15 00:52:15 04:37:27 03:00:25
34 26 Terenzo Bozzone NZL 08:36:14 08:33:13 00:51:43 04:39:02 03:00:29
35 25 Kevin Collington USA 08:36:40 08:39:16 00:52:20 04:42:18 02:57:02
36 22 Marko Albert EST 08:37:21 08:34:34 00:50:28 04:38:30 03:03:24
37 41 Paul Matthews AUS 08:37:45 08:31:16 00:50:57 04:39:49 03:01:58
38 28 Stefan Schmid GER 08:37:51 08:37:07 00:56:40 04:38:00 02:58:11
39 23 Tim Reed AUS 08:38:34 08:36:15 00:52:06 04:37:34 03:03:54
40 35 Alessandro Degasperi ITA 08:38:36 08:34:13 00:55:30 04:45:12 02:52:54
41 36 Ruedi Wild SUI 08:39:06 08:41:57 00:54:14 04:46:02 02:53:50
42 54 Denis Chevrot FRA 08:39:45 08:35:50 00:50:42 04:45:39 02:58:23
43 49 Christian Kramer GER 08:40:21 08:37:27 00:51:15 04:39:44 03:04:22
44 48 Igor Amorelli BRA 08:40:54 08:40:16 00:51:20 04:35:31 03:09:03
45 38 Pedro Gomes POR 08:41:23 08:39:41 00:55:33 04:44:31 02:56:19
46 17 Matthew Russell USA 08:42:34 08:51:18 01:01:45 04:38:51 02:56:58
47 42 Kirill Kotshegarov EST 08:44:48 08:46:51 00:57:58 04:38:40 03:03:09
48 34 David Plese SLO 08:44:55 08:41:10 00:56:38 04:43:57 02:59:20
49 56 Trevor Wurtele CAN 08:45:30 08:44:48 00:56:50 04:40:57 03:02:44
50 47 Kyle Buckingham ZAF 08:45:50 08:38:31 00:53:26 04:39:21 03:08:03
51 57 Per Bittner GER 08:46:00 08:42:03 00:53:35 04:42:44 03:04:41
52 58 Jens Petersen-Bach DEN 08:46:22 08:41:56 00:55:11 04:48:46 02:57:24
53 55 Jan Van Berkel SUI 08:49:20 08:45:24 00:53:03 04:41:00 03:10:17
54 50 Andrej Vistica CRO 08:49:21 08:45:32 00:58:18 04:44:17 03:01:46
55 52 Harry Wiltshire GBR 08:52:20 08:49:16 00:51:07 04:50:03 03:06:11
56 30 Markus Thomschke GER 08:53:42 08:55:13 00:57:40 04:39:39 03:11:23
57 45 Bertrand Billard FRA 08:54:40 08:57:11 00:54:10 04:44:55 03:10:34
58 43 Mauro Baertsch SUI 08:55:03 08:56:38 00:58:14 04:50:08 03:01:41

Heatmap

Here is another way of looking at the data in the table: Instead of showing predicted times I have converted them into zero to five starts for each of the legs and overall and showing them as a “heat map”. A darker red corresponds to more stars, white is equal to no stars.

MenPoints

One Response to Ironman Hawaii 2016 – Male Pro Predictions

  1. Sam October 3, 2016 at 4:35 pm #

    Great article Thorsten.

    Do you know where I Could stake a bet on the race Saturday? I am from the UK.

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