December 2011

Race Conditions

This year was one of the slower races for Western Australia – the adjustment was 7:30 compared to the new course rating of 11:16 (down from 11:54), so it was about four minutes slower than the average of the last years.

Male Results

Timo Bracht had to come up with another strong run to catch a courageous Clayton Fettel:

Rank	Name	Nation	Actual Time	Expected Time
1	Timo Bracht	GER	08:12:39	08:17:14
2	Clayton Fettell	AUS	08:19:02	08:37:14
3	Jason Shortis	AUS	08:27:31	08:50:51
4	Joshua Rix		08:30:59	09:14:24
5	Aaron Farlow	AUS	08:34:09	08:31:27
6	Petr Vabrousek	CZE	08:35:08	08:51:14
7	Mitchell Anderson	AUS	08:35:57	08:37:58
8	Simon Billeau	FRA	08:38:06	08:48:05
9	Luke Whitmore	AUS	08:54:35	08:59:20
10	Maik Twelsiek	GER	08:56:10	08:32:29
11	Luke McKenzie	AUS	09:03:44	08:35:03
12	Leon Griffin	AUS	09:03:49	08:32:23
13	Guy Crawford	AUS	09:10:50	08:55:10
14	Shinya Suganuma	JPN	09:19:15	09:10:15
15	Mike Gee		09:22:49	n/a
16	Dion Harrison	GBR	09:57:07	09:21:10
17	Hirotsugu Kuwabara	JAP	10:47:05	10:03:18

Maik Twelsiek and Luke McKenzie were predicted to go quite a bit faster, but they already lined up their “validation” IM, so now they can – as well as  Timo Bracht – focus on their Kona 2012 prep.

Female Results

On the female side, IM rookie Michelle Bremer won her first IM. Pre-race favorite Kristin Moeller was 40 minutes slower than expected, so she dropped out of the prize money spots:

Rank	Name	Nation	Actual Time	Expected Time
1	Michelle Bremer	NZL	09:25:38	n/a
2	Michelle Mitchell	AUS	09:28:07	09:37:28
3	Carrie Lester	AUS	09:32:44	09:36:25
4	Elly Franks	AUS	09:37:51	10:21:46
5	Hillary Biscay	USA	09:39:41	10:08:20
6	Kate Bevilaqua	AUS	09:43:37	09:49:58
7	Yvette Grice	GBR	09:53:33	10:12:04
8	Emi Shiono	JPN	10:00:23	10:00:23
9	Kristin Moeller	GER	10:07:05	09:26:48
10	Suzanne Blackborrow		10:31:51	n/a

The final race of the Ironman 2011 season is coming up this weekend: Ironman Western Australia.

Previous Results

Western Australia is one of the quicker courses with the same course rating as IM Germany (11:54). Last year’s winners were Courtney Ogden (8:14) and Kate Bevilaqua (9:19).

Male Participants

Defending champion Courtney Ogden faces some very strong competition for his title – he has only the 8th best rating! (Still, he has the second highest odds for winning.) The favorite has to be Timo Bracht – apparently he is repeating his last season with an early qualifier to secure his spot for Kona:

Rank	Name	Nation	Expected Time	Rating	Rank
1	Timo Bracht	GER	08:13:08	08:24:14	7
2	Aaron Farlow	AUS	08:27:14	08:38:39	28
3	Leon Griffin	AUS	08:28:09	08:39:36	31
4	Maik Twelsiek	GER	08:28:15	08:39:42	33
5	Luke McKenzie	AUS	08:30:48	08:42:18	40
6	Clayton Fettell	AUS	08:32:58	08:44:31	47
7	Mitchell Anderson	AUS	08:33:41	08:45:15	54
8	Courtney Ogden	AUS	08:34:32	08:46:07	59
9	Simon Billeau	FRA	08:43:43	08:55:31	113
10	Jason Shortis	AUS	08:46:28	08:58:19	125
11	Petr Vabrousek	CZE	08:46:51	08:58:43	128
12	Guy Crawford	AUS	08:50:45	09:02:42	150
13	Luke Whitmore	AUS	08:54:52	09:06:55	175
14	Shinya Suganuma	JPN	09:05:43	09:18:00	257
15	Chris Dmitrieff	AUS	09:05:53	09:18:11	257
16	Dion Harrison	GBR	09:16:32	09:29:04	345
17	James Bowstead	NZL	09:24:40	09:37:23	401
18	Hirotsugu Kuwabara	JAP	09:58:19	10:11:47	627

The odds for winning are as follows:

• Timo Bracht: 60%
• Courtney Ogden: 14%
• Luke McKenzie: 9%
• Mitchell Anderson: 7%
• Jason Shortis: 4%
• Maik Twelsiek: 3%
• Aaron Farlow: 2%

Female Participants

Similar story on the women’s side: The defending champ (Kate Bevilaqua, ranked 4th) faces strong competition, even if the females athletes before her are not that well known:

Rank	Name	Nation	Expected Time	Rating	Rank
1	Kristin Moeller	GER	09:22:07	09:34:47	22
2	Carrie Lester	AUS	09:31:40	09:44:32	46
3	Michelle Mitchell	AUS	09:32:42	09:45:36	48
4	Kate Bevilaqua	AUS	09:45:05	09:58:16	78
5	Emi Shiono	JPN	09:55:25	10:08:50	110
6	Hillary Biscay	USA	10:03:19	10:16:54	145
7	Yvette Grice	GBR	10:07:01	10:20:41	157
8	Elly Franks	AUS	10:16:38	10:30:31	183
9	Jodie Scott	AUS	10:27:01	10:41:08	207
10	Michelle Bremer	NZL	n/a	unrated	n/a

The odds for winning are as follows (again the defending champ looks better in the odds than in the ratings):

• Kristin Moeller: 35%
• Kate Bevilaqua: 22%
• Michelle Mitchell: 18%
• Carrie Lester: 16%
• Emi Shiono: 4%
• Yvette Grice: 3%
• Hillary Biscay: 2%