As always, you can find additional information on the participants in the detail post.
Previous Results
With a course rating of 7:03, South Africa is one of the medium quick courses, comparable to IM France or IM Arizona. However, the adjustment has seen quite a lot of movement, so conditions on race day are going to have an influence on how quick the race is going to be. Last years winners were Raynard Tissink in 8:05:36 (in front of Andi Böcherer and James Cunnama) and Chrissie Wellington in a super-quick 8:33:56 (followed by Rachel Joyce and Diana Riesler).
Male Participants
The top three from last year are back:
| Rank |
Name |
Nation |
Expected Time |
Rating |
Rank |
1 |
Raynard Tissink |
ZAF |
08:27:00 |
08:33:42 |
20 |
| 2 |
Andi Boecherer |
GER |
08:34:49 |
08:41:38 |
37 |
| 3 |
Cyril Viennot |
FRA |
08:36:30 |
08:43:20 |
45 |
| 4 |
Guilherme Manocchio |
BRA |
08:36:47 |
08:43:37 |
46 |
| 5 |
Clemente Alonso-McKernan |
ESP |
08:38:53 |
08:45:45 |
58 |
| 6 |
Mike Aigroz |
SWI |
08:39:00 |
08:45:52 |
59 |
| 7 |
Markus Fachbach |
GER |
08:39:11 |
08:46:03 |
61 |
8 |
James Cunnama |
ZAF |
08:40:30 |
08:47:23 |
71 |
| 9 |
Georg Swoboda |
AUT |
08:43:56 |
08:50:52 |
91 |
| 10 |
Petr Vabrousek |
CZE |
08:50:08 |
08:57:09 |
119 |
| 11 |
Alejandro Santamaria |
ESP |
08:51:38 |
08:58:40 |
127 |
| 12 |
Jonathan Hotchkiss |
GBR |
08:52:57 |
09:00:00 |
135 |
| 13 |
Trevor Delsaut |
FRA |
08:56:33 |
09:03:39 |
156 |
| 14 |
Joseph Spindler |
GER |
08:57:52 |
09:04:59 |
161 |
| 15 |
Andrey Lyatskiy |
RUS |
09:00:05 |
09:07:14 |
178 |
| 16 |
Bruno Clerbout |
BEL |
09:03:50 |
09:11:02 |
205 |
| 17 |
Michael Wetzel |
GER |
09:08:45 |
09:16:00 |
234 |
| 18 |
Kent Horner |
ZAF |
09:10:45 |
09:18:02 |
260 |
| 19 |
Ivan Albano |
BRA |
09:12:50 |
09:20:09 |
282 |
| 20 |
Craig Twigg |
GBR |
09:44:18 |
09:52:02 |
507 |
| 21 |
Freddy Lampret |
ZAF |
10:17:50 |
10:26:00 |
708 |
These three athletes also top the odds:
- Raynard Tissink: 39%
- Andi Boecherer: 35%
- James Cunnama: 11%
- Mike Aigroz: 8%
Statistically, in addition to Tissink, Böcherer and Cunname only last year’s Hawaii TOP 10 athlete Mike Aigroz has a realistic chance of winning – all the other well rated athletes do not have enough results under their belt. However, any of these athlete may be able to surprise if they manage to race as well as they did last time – the ratings are close enough to promise an exciting race!
Update: Apparently, Ray Tissink has entered the race, but is not really aiming for a top finish. (He tweeted “let’s make it 100% clear, I’m not racing [for a fast time]. Going to have fun and experience what everybody else in the event does.”) Apparently, he is taking some time off Ironman, but is “not retired yet. Taking some time to get my head straight after a disappointing year. Will be back at IMSA next year.”
Update: Not only is Raynard Tissink out of contention, but James Cunnama has withdrawn and will not start. With these two changes, the odds change to
- Andi Böcherer 51%
- Markus Fachbach 14%
- Mike Aigroz 14%
- Guilherme Manocchio 10%
Female Participants
While the men’s race looks quite close, the field on the women’s side is not as deep:
| Rank |
Name |
Nation |
Expected Time |
Rating |
Rank |
| 1 |
Natascha Badmann |
SWI |
09:25:51 |
09:33:20 |
22 |
| 2 |
Virginia Berasategui |
ESP |
09:30:37 |
09:38:10 |
35 |
| 3 |
Diana Riesler |
GER |
09:32:42 |
09:40:16 |
40 |
| 4 |
Susan Dietrich |
GER |
09:33:38 |
09:41:13 |
42 |
| 5 |
Jacqui Gordon |
USA |
10:02:56 |
10:10:54 |
126 |
| 6 |
Anne Basso |
FRA |
10:17:18 |
10:25:28 |
176 |
| 7 |
Claire Horner |
ZAF |
10:31:11 |
10:39:32 |
206 |
| 8 |
Caroline Koll |
ZAF |
10:36:43 |
10:45:08 |
216 |
9 |
Jodie Swallow |
GBR |
n/a |
unrated |
n/a |
Natascha Badmann still has the best rating of the field, but if she won it would be quite a surprise. Here’s a look at the odds for the race:
- Virginia Berasategui: 41%
- Natascha Badmann: 27%
- Diana Riesler: 22%
- Susan Dietrich: 6.%
- Jacqui Gordon: 4%
Jodie Swallow is still on the start list, but she’s got a stress fracture in her foot and will not be able to start. (On her blog, she said that she has “to postpone Ironman South Africa victory until next year”.) My best wishes for a quick recovery!