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2014

KPR 2015: Reducing the Number of Scoring IMs

Among the changes to the KPR for 2015 (official text on ironman.com website) is the reduction of number of Ironman races that will count as part of an athlete’s total score for the KPR. In the past (up until 2014), it was possible to use up to five full distance Ironman races for the total score. Starting with the KPR qualifying for Kona 2015, only up to three IMs can be part of the total score. (There can still be up to five scores total, but only up to three can be from IMs, similar to the up to three 70.3 results that can be part of the total.) Here’s a look at the changes in the rankings that this will probably bring. Because the women have fewer slots available, they usually race more often than the men, so I’ll have separate sections for each gender.

Men

Here are the men who qualified for Kona that had more than three IMs in their total KPR score. I have added their total number of Ironman finishes and the number of points they would loose in parentheses.

  • 5 IMs: 2 athletes
    Matt Russell (8-1080), Harry Wiltshire (6-1105)
  • 4 IMs: 5 athletes
    Daniel Halksworth (4-340), David Plese (4-340), Marek Jaskolka (4-405), Christian Brader (4-305), Justin Daerr (4-230)

Under the new rules, these athletes would have had a lower score. If they wanted to make sure to qualify for Kona, they would have had to race 70.3s for some extra points. 

Among the qualified athletes, Axel Zeebroek raced four IMs this season, but his total score only uses three of these, so his total wouldn’t change under the new rule.

In addition there are athletes that finished more than three IMs but didn’t qualify. As the rule change will only affect those that actually might be interested in a Kona slot, I’m only listing those that scored more than 1.000 points:

  • 8 IMs: Petr Vabrousek (3.265)
  • 5 IMs: Jonathon Woods (1.385)
  • 4 IMs: Kyrill Kotshegarev (3.220), Joshua Rix (1.400), Balazs Csoke (2.090), Thomas Darby (1.890)

Women

Here are the women who qualified for Kona that had more than three IMs in their total KPR score. I have added their total number of Ironman finishes and the number of points they would loose in parentheses.

  • 5 IMs: 2 athletes
    Lisa Roberts (5-1125), Jackie Arendt (5-610)
  • 4 IMs: 9 athletes
    Elizabeth Lyles (4-960), Amber Ferreira (4-405), Melanie Burke (5-720), Asa Lundstroem (4-720), Kristin Moeller (4-960), Sophie Goos (4-565), Bree Wee (4-720), Jessie Donavan (4-540), Katja Konschak (5-540)

Under the new rules, these athletes would have had a lower score. If they wanted to make sure to qualify for Kona, they would have had to race 70.3s for some extra points. 

Among the qualified athletes, Beth Shutt raced four IMs this season, but her total score only uses three of these, so his total wouldn’t change under the new rule.

In addition there are athletes that finished more than three IMs but didn’t qualify. As the rule change will only affect those that actually might be interested in a Kona slot, I’m only listing those that scored more than 2.000 points:

  • 5 IMs: Mareen Hufe (5.165)
  • 4 IMs: Ashley Clifford (3.385), Erika Csomor (4.780)

Overall Assessment

Obviously, the impact of the rule change is different for the men and women. 

The impact on the men’s cutoff will be relatively small (only 7 out of 50 qualifying athletes had four or more IMs in their total score). I think that racing under the new rules would have driven them to do more 70.3s, and the changes to their total score would have been in the order of 100 points.

For the women, there is a larger number of athletes that are impacted (11 women out of 35 qualifiers have raced four IMs or more), and the impact on their scores would also have been higher. All of them would have lost 400 points or more, and I’m not sure that they would have been able to fully compensate by racing additional 70.3s. 

To sum up, I think that the men’s cutoff will be lowered by about 100 points and by 400 points for the women by only allowing up to three IM scores.

Of course, there are other changes impacting the cutoff projections. If you want to see my overall projections for the 2015 cutoff and which athletes already have a safe slot, you should subscribe to the 2015 KPR Observer, consisting of an Initial Information Package and ongoing email updates as the season progresses.

Ironman Fortaleza 2014 – Analyzing Results

Course Rating

This was the first race in Fortaleza. The overall impression was a quick bike and relatively slow swims and runs, leading to an adjustment of 8:59, comparable to Switzerland or Cozumel.

Male Race Results

Eneko Llanos was the clear favorite and he was leading the race for a long time. However he struggled a bit on the run, and Guilherme Manocchio was close enough to overtake him about 5k from the finish. Eneko finished in second place, twenty minutes in front of 3rd place Thiago Vinhal.

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to expected
1 Guilherme Manocchio BRA 00:52:20 04:32:09 03:02:22 08:30:15 -28:59
2 Eneko Llanos ESP 00:51:56 04:27:09 03:09:07 08:32:02 12:23
3 Thiago Vinhal BRA 00:51:58 04:56:47 02:58:18 08:52:54 -12:31
4 Stefan Schmid GER 00:57:50 04:36:34 03:17:16 08:58:08 16:45
5 Frank Silvestrin BRA 00:52:15 04:44:30 03:17:31 08:58:54 -13:46
6 Patrick Jaberg SUI 00:57:52 04:39:15 03:18:28 08:59:57 -05:04
7 Ivan Risti ITA 00:51:42 04:56:48 03:08:31 09:01:25 n/a
8 Balazs Csoke HUN 00:49:49 04:39:03 03:29:34 09:02:11 01:04
9 Bryan Rhodes NZL 00:51:46 04:32:47 03:35:39 09:03:24 -16:37
10 Antonio Marcos de Souza BRA 00:52:08 04:53:13 03:17:44 09:07:42 -1:16:19
11 Raul Furtado BRA 00:57:46 04:40:32 03:30:45 09:13:36 -09:23
12 Petr Vabrousek CZE 01:01:10 04:49:04 03:39:48 09:36:46 45:24
13 Luiz Francisco Paiva Ferreira BRA 00:49:47 04:46:38 04:02:08 09:42:42 n/a
14 Jordan Bryden CAN 00:57:35 05:08:43 03:56:42 10:11:36 38:14
15 Fabio Carvalho BRA 00:50:11 05:16:30 04:12:59 10:24:16 1:12:32
Daniel Fontana ITA 00:51:47 04:32:48 DNF
Felipe De Oliveira Manente BRA 00:57:54 04:51:02 DNF
Ciro Violin BRA 00:57:43 04:59:04 DNF
Alexandre Aguiar Moura BRA 01:23:04 06:20:23 DNF

Female Race Results

The winner on the women’s side was Haley Chura who had fantastic day. It was expected that she’d be leading after the swim, but she continued to extend her lead also posting the fastest bike and the second fastest run to win by more than 30 minutes. Ariane Monticeli ran herself into second place, and Jessie Donavan returned to IM racing with a third place finish.

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to expected
1 Haley Chura USA 00:51:52 04:57:46 03:15:59 09:09:20 -32:18
2 Ariane Monticeli BRA 01:12:19 05:11:21 03:14:00 09:41:55 -09:56
3 Jessie Donavan USA 01:17:06 04:59:35 03:31:15 09:51:33 20:08
4 Mette Pettersen Moe NOR 00:57:44 05:06:48 03:50:23 09:58:51 -05:09
5 Caroline Gregory USA 00:53:46 05:25:42 03:44:06 10:06:48 -15:10
6 Mariana Andrade BRA 01:06:38 05:20:05 03:46:30 10:17:56 08:23
7 Ana Lidia Borba BRA 01:03:33 05:34:42 04:01:57 10:44:30 33:21
Erika Csomor HUN 01:13:57 05:53:16 DNF

KPR 2015 – Overview of Changes

In October, WTC announced the rules for Pros that want to qualify for Kona 2015 – the system known as „Kona Pro Ranking” or KPR for short. The official rules can be found on the Ironman website. Compared to 2014, there have been a few changes:

  1. There will be automatic qualifiers for the winners of the five Regional Championships.
    The Asia-Pacific (Melbourne in March) and the European (Frankfurt in July) championships are unchanged. The North American Championship has moved from Mt. Tremblant in August to Texas in May. There will be two additional Regional Championships, one for for Africa (Nelson Mandela Bay/South Africa in March) and another one for Latin America (Florianopolis/Brasil in May).
  2. There won’t be automatic qualifiers for the 70.3 champions (Daniela Ryf and Javier Gomez for 2014) or the HyVee champions (Hunter Kemper and Helle Frederiksen)
  3. The automatic slot for Kona champions are still in the rules, but validation now requires a „competitive finish as determined by Ironman“.
  4. There will still be five results that count for the total score, but now only up to three IMs count.

Changes to the race calendar (fewer races in North America with Pro divisions and KPR points) have been announced, but the changes for 2015 Kona qualifying are pretty small. (For example, the number of full distance IMs is basically unchanged from 2014 to 2015.)

A lot of details are unchanged from 2014, most notably:

  1. The points schemes per race are unchanged (P-8000 for Kona, P-4000 for Regional Championships, P-2000 for other IMs).
  2. The number of points slots are unchanged (50 slots for men and 35 for women).
  3. The dates for assigning slots are unchanged (end of July for the majority of slots, and end of August for the final slots).

2015Title Thumb

Over the next days, I will have a closer look at the impact of the changes. If you’re interested in the KPR, please consider purchasing the 2015 KPR Observer: For 29$ you will receive an „Initial Information Package“ (describing the KPR in detail and my 2015 cutoff estimates) and at least six updates as the season progresses (some more info on the Graph View and Table View can be found here). (If you act soon and purchase before the Observer’s release around mid-November, you can get it for it’s pre-release price of 24$.)

KPR Observer – Preview

The last few days I’ve been busy setting up the 2015 KPR Observer. I still have a few more todos on my list, in the meantime you can still benefit from the reduced pre-order price of 24$!

In order to give you a better idea of the value that I’ll provide with the KPR Observer updates during the season, here’s a look at two documents with different views on the KPR Rankings: the Graphical View for an overview, and the KPR Table for all the details. Together with my commentary on recent developments and a look at the upcoming races, they make following the KPR very easy and will safe you a ton of time!

Graphical View

The graphical view shows a lot of information on a single page. Here is an example of the Men’s Standing in early July (of course, there is a similar page for women’s qualifying):

KPR Men 20140707

Here’s what you can see on this page:

  • Automatic Qualifiers (blue)
    All the „potential“ Automatic Qualifiers are listed, with my assessment of whether they’ll validate and take their slot.
  • Projected Cutoff
    Based on my projections, I give a projection for the July cutoff (and later for the August cutoff as well).
  • Safe (green)
    Based on the cutoff, the athletes that have a safe Kona slot are listed. Some names are in UPPERCASE, these are new in the category. (For example, Jan Frodeno had just finished third in Frankfurt, thereby fulfilling the requirement of racing at least one IM and also scoring enough points.)
  • Bubble (yellow)
    Athletes that are within a few hundred points of the projected cutoff. If they score a couple hundred more points, they should be able to move into safe territory, but without any points might  come up just short. (In fact, all athletes on the bubble made it to Kona after scoring some more points.)
  • Close (orange)
    These athletes are within a thousand points of the cutoff, but do not have enough points for a slot at this point.
  • Potential (brown)
    These athletes are even further back, but are on the start list for one of the remaining IMs, and could secure a slot with a good performance. (For example, Kyle Buckingham got a slot by winning IM Lake Placid.)
  • Not interested (red)
    These athletes may be placed well in the rankings, but have said that they are not interested in a Kona slot. Therefore, they probably won’t validate their slot or further improve their score.

On the bottom there is some background information how far the season has progressed (date, last race, number of completed IMs etc.).

KPR Table

The KPR Table shows similar information, but goes into much more details. Again, here is a look at the men’s standings in early July:

KPRTable

The Table is delivered as Excel spreadsheets (one for the men and one for the women, plus another sheet showing the Points schemes). Some details on the columns in this sheet:

  • Rank
    For the ranking, I am not counting Automatic Qualifiers (marked “AQ”) and those not interested in a slot (denoted by a “-“), so #40 (for the men) will actually be the last one in a position to receive a July slot.
  • Validated
    This column indicates whether an athlete has already fulfilled the minimum requirement of finishing at least on IM outside of Kona to be eligible for a Kona slot.
  • Races
    In this column I show how many races an athlete already has on his scorecard and which score would drop off the scorecard once another good result is added.
  • Kona
    This is my assessment of the athlete’s chances to get a Kona slot, going from a green up arrow showing a safe slot down to a red down arrow meaning that a Kona slot is very unlikely.
  • Comments
    Some more information about the athlete, e.g. known race plans.
  • Races1-5, Points1-5
    Shows where the athlete scored how many points (only those races that are part of the athlete’s total).

If you purchase the KPR Observer, you’ll receive this information at least six times (and more likely, ten times) as the season progresses, therefore aways staying up to date on recent developments. You still have a few day left to benefit from it’s reduced pre-release price of 24$ at https://gum.co/2015KPR.

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