November 2015

Announcing the 2016 KPR Observer

December 10, 2016

The Kona Pro Ranking (or KPR for short) is the system used to determine which Professional triathletes qualify for the Ironman World Championships in Kona.

My 2016 KPR Observer makes understanding and following the KPR rankings easy. It consists of an Initial Information Package about the KPR and ongoing updates via EMail during the season.

The Initial Information Package (delivered right after the release planned for November 20th) contains:

a description of how the KPR works in qualifying Pros for Kona
base predictions of the men’s and women’s cutoff
graphs and descriptions of the current KPR standings

During the season, there will be at least six EMail Updates (and probably ten) about the KPR Standings, who is already in, who is close to qualifying, how many slots are still open and updated estimates of where the cutoffs will occur.

Fraser Fraser Cartmell, Kona Pro qualifier in 2015, subscribed to last year’s KPR Observer:

Thanks for the support along the way on my Kona ’15 journey and your help discussing the KPR – it was appreciated!

If you want to qualify as a Pro, coach a Pro athlete, write about professional Ironman racing or are otherwise interested in the KPR, this is must-read information!

Matthew Here’s what Matthew Rose of Dynamo Multisport, coach to Kona 2015 Pro qualifier Haley Chura, says about my work:

I view your work as ‘Enterprise type’ quality research, it’s the best in the triathlon business. I wish I could actually pay you on par with the value you provide!

The time you’ll save with the KPR Observer is easily worth the price of 39$ for the full season.

Order today at https://gum.co/2016KPR or click on the button below:

Get 2016 KPR Observer

Ironman Malaysia 2015 (Nov 14th) – Predictions

February 26, 2017

Previous Winners

Year	Male Winner	Time	Female Winner	Time
2006	Jason Shortis (AUS)	08:36:33	Sonja Tajsich (GER)	10:08:13
2007	Xavier Le Floch (FRA)	08:43:52	Nicole Leder (GER)	09:42:33
2008	Faris Al-Sultan (GER)	08:34:42	Belinda Granger (AUS)	09:29:21
2009	Luke McKenzie (AUS)	08:26:48	Belinda Granger (AUS)	09:21:10
2010	Marino Vanhoenacker (BEL)	08:22:31	Belinda Granger (AUS)	09:23:33
2014	Patrik Nilsson (SWE)	08:41:53	Diana Riesler (GER)	09:26:38

Last Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Time
1	Patrik Nilsson	SWE	00:49:49	04:40:31	03:05:37	08:41:53
2	Fredrik Croneborg	SWE	00:53:34	04:49:56	03:10:00	08:58:45
3	Karol Dzalaj	SVK	00:56:05	04:47:03	03:26:21	09:15:00

Female Race Results

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Time
1	Diana Riesler	GER	00:59:11	04:58:44	03:23:11	09:26:38
2	Keiko Tanaka	JPN	00:56:51	05:28:43	03:29:23	10:00:13
3	Dimity-Lee Duke	AUS	01:04:11	05:25:17	03:26:33	10:02:03

Course Records

Leg	Gender	Record	Athlete	Date
Total	overall	08:10:35	Bryan Rhodes	2002-01-27
Swim	overall	00:46:19	Dylan McNeice	2014-09-27
Bike	overall	04:21:01	Marino Vanhoenacker	2010-02-27
Run	overall	02:56:27	Jason Shortis	2006-02-26
Total	female	09:21:10	Belinda Granger	2009-02-28
Swim	female	00:50:45	Nina Kraft	2007-02-28
Bike	female	04:48:08	Belinda Granger	2009-02-28
Run	female	03:17:36	Nicole Leder	2007-02-28

Course Rating

The Course Rating for IM Malaysia is – 19:30.

Race Adjustments for IM Malaysia

Year	Adjustment	Swim Adj.	Bike Adj.	Run Adj.	# of Athletes	Rating	Swim Rating	Bike Rating	Run Rating
2014	-19:30	-02:07	-01:26	-12:09	19	-19:30	-02:07	-01:26	-12:09

KPR points and Prize Money

IM Malaysia is a P-2000 race. It has a total prize purse of 40.000 US$.

Male Race Participants

Rank	Bib	Name	Nation	Expected Time	Rating	Exp. Swim	Exp. Bike	Exp. Run	Overall
1	20	Kirill Kotshegarov	EST	08:58:00	08:44:46	00:56:16	04:43:40	03:13:04	66
2	1	Romain Guillaume	FRA	08:58:59	08:42:30	00:50:41	04:42:16	03:21:02	59
3	15	Alberto Casadei	ITA	08:59:32	08:54:10	00:49:33	04:53:01	03:11:58	106
4	28	Jens Petersen-Bach	DEN	09:00:44	08:47:32	00:53:42	04:52:27	03:09:35	79
5	2	Fredrik Croneborg	SWE	09:02:11	08:43:23	00:54:09	04:53:15	03:09:46	60
6	11	Mike Aigroz	SUI	09:04:52	08:46:15	00:50:58	04:49:14	03:19:40	72
7	5	Paul Ambrose	AUS	09:05:34	08:49:42	00:52:22	04:46:30	03:21:42	85
8	13	Mauro Baertsch	SUI	09:09:18	08:58:50	00:55:52	04:54:40	03:13:46	125
9	12	Christian Brader	GER	09:14:30	08:54:12	00:59:27	04:56:58	03:13:05	107
10	29	Carl Read	NZL	09:15:07	09:01:25	00:54:40	05:01:55	03:13:32	136
11	7	Harry Wiltshire	GBR	09:17:22	09:07:17	00:50:12	04:55:56	03:26:15	161
12	18	Todd Israel	AUS	09:17:31	09:02:48	00:53:33	04:59:11	03:19:48	143
13	10	Balazs Csoke	HUN	09:19:03	08:59:38	00:50:18	04:55:00	03:28:45	130
14	9	Elliot Holtham	CAN	09:23:04	09:13:19	00:55:47	04:58:59	03:23:18	190
15	37	Thiago Vinhal	BRA	09:23:06	09:10:19	00:51:36	05:15:15	03:11:14	179
16	34	Petr Vabrousek	CZE	09:23:51	09:00:19	00:58:47	04:59:20	03:20:44	131
17	8	Cedric Lassonde	FRA	09:24:56	09:05:36	00:58:20	04:57:12	03:24:23	158
18	14	Guy Crawford	NZL	09:25:23	09:09:40	00:51:03	04:48:26	03:40:54	174
19	31	Peter Seidel	GER	09:28:53	09:23:33	00:56:31	04:48:35	03:38:47	(236)
20	4	Chris Legh	AUS	09:33:03	09:11:47	00:58:25	04:59:55	03:29:43	(186)
21	27	Steven Osborne	GBR	09:34:34	09:33:50	00:59:08	05:17:03	03:13:22	277
22	36	Brad Williams	USA	09:35:09	09:26:16	00:59:33	05:02:22	03:28:14	(243)
23	6	Tohara Kaito	JPN	09:35:50	09:26:05	00:56:44	05:17:16	03:16:50	242
24	32	Yu Shinozaki	JPN	09:48:04	09:58:58	00:58:18	04:56:08	03:48:37	363
25	22	Michael Louys	BEL	09:48:11	09:31:46	01:04:44	05:05:22	03:33:06	265
26	21	Freddy Lampret	ZAF	09:49:01	10:03:07	00:55:20	05:18:09	03:30:31	(373)
27	35	Hendrik-Jan Verhaegen	BEL	09:49:35	09:31:17	00:59:56	05:07:35	03:37:03	263
28	3	Markus Mlinar	AUT	09:50:33	09:50:10	00:58:13	05:07:59	03:39:21	(334)
29	24	Hiroyuki Nishiuchi	JPN	09:52:46	09:29:10	00:51:28	05:26:04	03:30:13	(250)
30	16	Vincent Depuiset	FRA	10:10:13	09:53:24	01:11:59	05:17:07	03:36:07	348
31	26	Gilian Oriet	SUI	10:29:44	10:32:28	01:01:55	05:09:40	04:13:09	(457)
32	25	Young Hwan Oh	KOR	11:08:39	10:58:20	01:05:30	05:28:41	04:29:29	(474)
33	33	Josef Svoboda	CZE	12:05:59	11:59:40	01:15:28	06:06:17	04:39:13	481
34	23	Marek Nemcik	SVK	12:09:45	12:01:04	01:15:24	05:52:43	04:56:39	482
	17	Frederic Garcia	FRA	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)
	19	Yvan Jarrige	FRA	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)
	30	Daniil Sapunov	UKR	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)

Female Race Participants

Rank	Bib	Name	Nation	Exp. Time	Rating	Exp. Swim	Exp. Bike	Exp. Run	Overall
1	41	Diana Riesler	GER	09:38:43	09:38:25	00:59:51	05:03:49	03:30:03	41
2	52	~~Haley Chura~~	~~USA~~	~~09:54:00~~	~~09:43:05~~	~~00:51:20~~	~~05:22:15~~	~~03:35:25~~	50
3	47	Kristin Moeller	GER	09:55:58	09:33:36	01:06:36	05:26:34	03:17:47	31
4	42	Natascha Badmann	SUI	09:57:59	09:38:56	01:04:34	05:10:00	03:38:25	43
5	65	Rebecca Preston	AUS	09:59:08	09:36:55	01:00:17	05:21:15	03:32:36	38
6	43	Bree Wee	USA	10:04:33	09:42:51	00:56:55	05:23:48	03:38:50	48
7	51	Jeanne Collonge	FRA	10:09:04	10:01:57	01:00:32	05:20:33	03:42:59	92
8	44	Keiko Tanaka	JPN	10:10:11	10:18:24	00:57:34	05:31:51	03:35:47	132
9	66	Tineke Van den Berg	NED	10:11:07	09:55:37	01:08:14	05:17:05	03:40:48	80
10	50	Karen Thibodeau	CAN	10:11:45	09:53:01	00:56:35	05:32:01	03:38:09	76
11	54	Jessica Fleming	AUS	10:11:53	09:51:33	01:03:34	05:18:02	03:45:18	73
12	46	Sarah Crowley	AUS	10:11:54	10:02:27	01:01:00	05:29:02	03:36:52	(94)
13	56	Gurutze Frades Larralde	ESP	10:16:53	10:03:59	01:05:02	05:36:04	03:30:47	97
14	67	Kathrin Walther	GER	10:17:40	10:10:08	01:03:09	05:20:49	03:48:42	111
15	62	Caroline Livesey	GBR	10:19:08	09:58:38	01:03:53	05:27:43	03:42:32	85
16	49	Monique Grossrieder	SUI	10:22:26	10:07:33	01:07:32	05:31:51	03:38:02	(108)
17	45	Kate Bevilaqua	AUS	10:22:27	10:00:13	00:58:35	05:29:26	03:49:27	89
18	57	Katharina Grohmann	GER	10:24:14	10:06:50	01:14:26	05:29:20	03:35:28	106
19	59	Anna Halasz	HUN	10:25:05	10:17:33	01:10:42	05:24:00	03:45:23	(129)
20	63	Jocelyn Mccauley	USA	10:26:20	10:10:33	01:02:09	05:34:12	03:44:58	(112)
21	48	Saleta Castro	ESP	10:29:57	10:16:10	00:59:02	05:35:49	03:50:06	127
22	53	Michelle Duffield	AUS	10:30:29	10:15:21	01:04:14	05:36:40	03:44:35	125
23	58	Emma Graaf	SWE	10:36:53	10:18:29	01:02:34	05:34:10	03:55:10	133
24	64	Maki Nishiuchi	JPN	10:39:21	10:23:56	00:57:02	05:35:20	04:01:59	151
25	61	Angela Kuehnlein	GER	11:00:29	10:50:15	01:06:20	05:42:25	04:06:44	(176)
26	60	Mami Ishii	JPN	13:11:33	12:59:19	01:04:55	06:05:28	05:56:10	(181)
	55	Carole Fuchs	THA	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

The race is pretty open on the male side: Krill Kotshegarov, Alberto Casadei, Frederik Croneborg and Romain Guillaume have very similar chances, and there a number of other athletes that aren’t expected to be too far off:

Kirill Kotshegarov: 25% (3-1)
Alberto Casadei: 18% (5-1)
Fredrik Croneborg: 16% (5-1)
Romain Guillaume: 14% (6-1)
Paul Ambrose: 9% (11-1)
Jens Petersen-Bach: 8% (11-1)
Mike Aigroz: 4% (23-1)
Mauro Baertsch: 3% (35-1)
Carl Read: 2% (47-1)

Female Race Participants

Last year’s winner Diana Riesler is the clear favorite for this year as well – provided she has recovered from her DNF in Kona. Haley Chura is still struggling with the injuries she suffered when hit by a car, she was a DNF in Kona and ~~unlikely~~ isn’t able to start in Malaysia. Then there are a number of athletes looking for KPR points in order to qualify for Kona 2016: Kristin Möller and Bree Wee almost qualified in 2015, and Natascha Badmann took some time to recover from her injuries but has already returned to racing with a podium in Vichy.

Diana Riesler: 59% (1-1)
~~Haley Chura: 13% (7-1)~~
Kristin Moeller: 8% (11-1)
Natascha Badmann: 7% (13-1)
Rebecca Preston: 7% (14-1)
Jeanne Collonge: 3% (31-1)
Bree Wee: 2% (59-1)

Ironman Arizona 2015 (Nov 15th) – Predictions

February 26, 2017

IMAZLogo Update November 11th: The following athletes have been deleted the latest start list from Ironman:

Peter Kotland
Heather Jackson, Dede Griesgrauer, Danielle Mack

Pedro Gomes has announced on Twitter and his blog that he won’t start.

Previous Winners

Year	Male Winner	Time	Female Winner	Time
2005	Faris Al-Sultan (GER)	08:25:42	Kate Major (AUS)	09:44:02
2006	Michael Lovato (USA)	08:20:56	Michellie Jones (AUS)	09:12:53
2007	Rutger Beke (BEL)	08:21:14	Heather Gollnick (USA)	09:36:40
2008	Jozsef Major (HUN)	08:34:19	Erika Csomor (HUN)	09:14:49
2008	Andreas Raelert (GER)	08:14:16	Heleen Bij De Vaate (NED)	09:21:06
2009	Jordan Rapp (USA)	08:13:35	Samantha McGlone (CAN)	09:09:19
2010	Timo Bracht (GER)	08:07:16	Chrissie Wellington (GBR)	08:36:13
2011	Eneko Llanos (ESP)	07:59:38	Leanda Cave (GBR)	08:49:00
2012	Nils Frommhold (GER)	08:03:13	Linsey Corbin (USA)	09:01:41
2013	Victor Del Corral (ESP)	08:02:00	Julia Gajer (GER)	08:52:49
2014	Brent McMahon (CAN)	07:55:48	Meredith Kessler (USA)	08:50:41

Last Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Time
1	Brent McMahon	CAN	00:47:25	04:21:24	02:43:29	07:55:48
2	Clemente Alonso McKernan	ESP	00:48:05	04:20:44	02:47:30	08:00:42
3	Jordan Rapp	USA	00:51:13	04:14:03	02:54:08	08:03:14

Female Race Results

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Time
1	Meredith Kessler	USA	00:50:22	04:48:06	03:07:56	08:50:41
2	Lisa Huetthaler	AUT	00:59:05	04:50:17	03:05:48	08:58:46
3	Heather Jackson	USA	00:58:57	04:47:07	03:18:51	09:08:57

Course Records

Leg	Gender	Record	Athlete	Date
Total	overall	07:55:48	Brent McMahon	2014-11-16
Swim	overall	00:46:02	Kieran Doe	2008-11-23
Bike	overall	04:14:03	Jordan Rapp	2014-11-16
Run	overall	02:43:29	Brent McMahon	2014-11-16
Total	female	08:36:13	Chrissie Wellington	2010-11-21
Swim	female	00:48:13	Leanda Cave	2008-11-23
Bike	female	04:42:57	Michelle Vesterby	2013-11-17
Run	female	02:52:56	Chrissie Wellington	2010-11-21

Course Rating

The Course Rating for IM Arizona is 11:37.

Race Adjustments for IM Arizona

Year	Adjustment	Swim Adj.	Bike Adj.	Run Adj.	# of Athletes	Rating	Swim Rating	Bike Rating	Run Rating
2006	05:53	-00:36	04:34	-00:24	29	05:53	-00:36	04:34	-00:24
2007	02:55	-00:35	01:13	01:35	26	04:24	-00:36	02:53	00:36
2008	04:58	00:04	04:21	-00:50	38	04:35	-00:22	03:22	00:07
2008	10:53	01:10	09:07	01:59	51	06:10	00:01	04:49	00:35
2009	17:44	-01:00	12:12	02:35	37	08:28	-00:12	06:17	00:59
2010	13:23	-00:23	09:06	01:47	46	09:18	-00:13	06:45	01:07
2011	15:03	-00:56	15:27	02:14	55	10:07	-00:20	08:00	01:17
2012	14:16	-01:58	16:28	02:33	50	10:38	-00:32	09:04	01:26
2013	22:15	-00:21	19:57	03:47	58	11:56	-00:31	10:16	01:42
2014	08:52	-01:09	08:37	02:33	40	11:37	-00:35	10:06	01:47

KPR points and Prize Money

IM Arizona is a P-2000 race. It has a total prize purse of 100.000 US$.

Male Race Participants

Rank	Bib	Name	Nation	Expected Time	Rating	Exp. Swim	Exp. Bike	Exp. Run	Overall
1	1	Brent McMahon	CAN	08:01:10	08:13:51	00:47:17	04:20:50	02:48:03	2
2	2	Jordan Rapp	USA	08:10:21	08:27:40	00:51:34	04:18:20	02:55:27	15
3	3	Maik Twelsiek	GER	08:19:33	08:38:30	00:50:41	04:18:44	03:05:07	42
4	31	Marc Duelsen	GER	08:20:44	08:45:39	00:53:13	04:25:56	02:56:35	71
5	4	TJ Tollakson	USA	08:21:18	08:37:50	00:49:15	04:24:57	03:02:07	39
6	9	Andrew Starykowicz	USA	08:25:10	08:39:54	00:48:13	04:17:42	03:14:15	47
7	13	~~Pedro Gomes~~	~~POR~~	~~08:26:28~~	~~08:41:25~~	~~00:51:02~~	~~04:34:28~~	~~02:55:58~~	56
8	11	Lionel Sanders	CAN	08:26:36	08:35:29	00:56:42	04:28:08	02:56:46	32
9	7	Marko Albert	EST	08:27:48	08:35:42	00:47:32	04:34:52	03:00:24	33
10	54	Jonathan Shearon	USA	08:27:53	09:00:42	00:53:01	04:28:33	03:01:20	134
11	8	David Plese	SLO	08:30:29	08:39:16	00:53:10	04:35:31	02:56:48	46
12	5	Matthew Russell	USA	08:33:28	08:50:06	00:58:29	04:32:40	02:57:19	86
13	35	Miguel Fidalgo Rossell	ESP	08:35:39	08:57:30	00:49:04	04:47:12	02:54:23	(118)
14	36	Thomas Gerlach	USA	08:36:44	08:55:43	00:53:57	04:30:58	03:06:50	114
15	14	Sergio Marques	POR	08:37:51	08:54:42	00:55:05	04:44:37	02:53:09	112
16	22	Christian Brader	GER	08:39:48	08:54:12	00:57:05	04:40:41	02:57:02	107
17	6	Jozsef Major	HUN	08:39:49	08:53:17	00:57:32	04:30:53	03:06:25	101
18	60	Dirk Wijnalda	NED	08:41:50	09:01:28	00:57:46	04:42:11	02:56:53	137
19	41	Matic Modic	SLO	08:42:02	09:04:49	00:55:00	04:39:54	03:02:08	155
20	56	Joe Umphenour	USA	08:42:29	08:58:11	00:47:43	04:39:23	03:10:24	120
21	15	Mike Schifferle	SUI	08:44:14	09:01:06	01:00:15	04:37:12	03:01:47	135
22	43	David Naesvik	SWE	08:47:27	09:03:12	00:55:56	04:36:07	03:10:24	146
23	39	Daniel Herlbauer	AUT	08:48:41	09:11:57	00:54:01	04:40:57	03:08:43	(186)
24	16	Christopher Bagg	USA	08:49:12	09:20:27	00:54:06	04:40:47	03:09:18	222
25	18	Marcel Bischof	GER	08:55:06	09:17:08	00:57:05	04:45:08	03:07:53	208
26	26	James Chesson	USA	08:58:19	09:17:25	00:58:09	04:47:57	03:07:13	210
27	17	Blake Becker	USA	08:58:37	09:40:02	00:53:09	04:45:56	03:14:32	300
28	21	Raymond Botelho	USA	09:00:09	09:29:29	00:54:11	04:35:58	03:24:59	253
29	58	Jesse Vondracek	USA	09:00:41	09:30:04	00:54:39	04:53:42	03:07:21	256
30	33	Lewis Elliot	USA	09:03:49	09:37:27	00:54:13	04:40:44	03:23:52	(289)
31	49	Felipe De Oliveira Manente	BRA	09:03:50	09:21:06	00:53:43	04:54:57	03:10:10	225
32	45	Colin Laughery	USA	09:05:16	09:28:27	00:59:04	04:50:35	03:10:37	(249)
33	51	Bryan McCrystal	IRL	09:06:56	09:23:20	01:04:13	04:34:30	03:23:14	(234)
34	46	James Lubinski	USA	09:07:13	09:31:08	01:02:37	04:50:22	03:09:15	262
35	48	Douglas MacLean	USA	09:07:48	09:25:21	00:58:18	04:55:34	03:08:56	240
36	55	Michael Starkey	USA	09:08:55	09:27:10	00:59:52	04:51:26	03:12:38	244
37	19	Patrick Bless	GER	09:15:59	09:29:44	00:58:00	04:59:19	03:13:40	254
38	24	Jordan Bryden	CAN	09:16:26	09:50:12	00:49:55	05:01:46	03:19:46	334
39	27	Emanuele Ciotti	ITA	09:21:09	09:41:55	00:52:46	04:57:37	03:25:46	(305)
40	37	Dylan Gleeson	CAN	09:28:55	09:53:07	00:56:26	04:41:07	03:46:21	(347)
41	61	Dantley Young	USA	09:33:54	10:04:30	01:06:25	05:04:25	03:18:04	379
42	42	~~Peter Kotland~~	~~CZE~~	~~09:37:19~~	~~09:57:03~~	~~00:59:27~~	~~04:58:01~~	~~03:34:51~~	~~357~~
43	38	Elmar Heger	GER	09:41:16	10:14:31	00:57:42	04:55:01	03:43:33	409
44	53	Mario Radevic	GER	09:53:35	10:27:54	01:03:08	05:02:24	03:43:03	(452)
45	52	Gilian Oriet	SUI	09:54:42	10:32:28	00:59:51	04:55:42	03:54:10	(457)
46	47	Arland Macasieb	PHI	09:58:23	10:33:30	01:05:08	05:11:39	03:36:36	(461)
47	20	Karl Bordine	USA	10:07:41	10:33:32	00:59:22	04:39:51	04:23:28	(461)
48	28	Reinaldo De Oliveira	BRA	10:09:56	10:34:26	01:02:38	05:14:24	03:47:55	(461)
49	34	Andrew Fast	USA	10:10:42	10:31:43	00:58:41	05:05:45	04:01:16	(456)
50	23	Patrice Brisindi	CAN	10:12:15	10:38:17	00:57:34	05:16:06	03:53:36	(464)
51	50	Brent Mcburney	USA	10:27:32	10:54:13	01:00:32	05:03:52	04:18:08	(474)
52	59	Jason Watson	USA	10:43:28	11:15:41	00:59:27	05:21:58	04:17:03	479
53	85	Terry Casey	USA	10:44:20	11:11:44	00:59:03	05:23:42	04:16:36	(478)
54	10	Drew Scott	USA	11:04:19	11:32:34	00:49:49	04:34:33	05:34:57	(481)
	12	Kevin Collington	USA	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)
	25	Nicholas Chase	USA	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)
	29	Ivan Dominguez	USA	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)
	30	Nathan Dressel	USA	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)
	32	Robert Duncan	USA	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)
	40	Tyler Jordan	USA	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)
	44	Derek Lantz	CAN	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)
	57	Jorge Vazquez	MEX	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)

Female Race Participants

Rank	Bib	Name	Nation	Exp. Time	Rating	Exp. Swim	Exp. Bike	Exp. Run	Overall
1	70	Meredith Kessler	USA	08:58:15	09:25:43	00:49:56	04:51:30	03:11:50	19
2	71	Julia Gajer	GER	09:03:33	09:20:48	00:53:41	04:59:47	03:05:05	14
3	72	Michelle Vesterby	DEN	09:04:49	09:21:08	00:52:03	04:53:59	03:13:47	15
4	73	~~Heather Jackson~~	~~USA~~	~~09:07:38~~	~~09:23:29~~	~~00:58:51~~	~~04:52:27~~	~~03:11:20~~	16
5	75	Amanda Stevens	USA	09:15:13	09:39:10	00:50:56	05:00:18	03:18:58	44
6	77	Lisa Roberts	USA	09:16:09	09:31:47	01:04:22	05:03:20	03:03:27	27
7	~~100~~	~~Danielle Mack~~	~~USA~~	~~09:19:01~~	~~09:45:08~~	~~01:02:51~~	~~04:59:53~~	~~03:11:17~~	53
8	99	Camilla Lindholm	SWE	09:24:27	09:49:46	01:07:44	04:59:09	03:12:34	66
9	74	Melanie McQuaid	CAN	09:24:31	09:48:32	00:58:53	04:59:36	03:21:02	(62)
10	101	Mackenzie Madison	USA	09:25:48	09:56:47	00:59:16	05:03:22	03:18:10	82
11	87	Amber Ferreira	USA	09:30:38	09:49:34	00:56:13	05:08:08	03:21:17	64
12	76	~~Dede Griesbauer~~	~~USA~~	~~09:33:19~~	~~09:50:28~~	~~00:53:26~~	~~05:04:16~~	~~03:30:37~~	70
13	108	Laurel Wassner	USA	09:36:00	09:50:24	00:54:41	05:19:20	03:16:59	69
14	105	Darbi Roberts	USA	09:36:19	10:06:51	00:53:30	05:04:33	03:33:17	(107)
15	93	Christina Jackson	USA	09:41:28	10:03:20	00:52:26	05:05:50	03:38:11	95
16	86	Anna Cleaver	NZL	09:43:26	10:13:31	00:53:01	05:13:55	03:31:30	(119)
17	95	Jessica Meyers	USA	09:46:50	10:04:22	01:00:14	05:15:17	03:26:19	98
18	88	Christine Fletcher	CAN	09:54:27	10:12:22	00:58:56	05:15:49	03:34:42	116
19	90	Sarah Graves	USA	09:57:30	10:15:05	01:13:00	05:17:34	03:21:57	124
20	104	Tami Ritchie	USA	10:01:36	10:31:44	00:53:28	05:33:35	03:29:32	166
21	94	Sarah Jarvis	USA	10:06:48	10:30:22	01:00:30	05:14:48	03:46:30	(165)
22	82	Neilia Bliss	USA	10:15:38	10:41:50	01:02:44	05:28:54	03:39:00	(172)
23	102	Caroline Martineau	CAN	10:18:27	11:01:25	01:05:38	05:17:47	03:50:01	(178)
24	79	Rahel Bellinga	NED	10:24:35	10:40:26	01:03:34	05:09:05	04:06:56	(170)
25	97	Leslie Lamacchia	USA	10:31:40	10:57:18	01:08:39	05:30:55	03:47:06	(177)
26	89	Richele Frank	CAN	10:32:53	10:59:48	01:12:18	05:21:07	03:54:29	(177)
27	81	Ali Black	USA	10:36:19	10:57:27	01:03:43	05:25:49	04:01:47	(177)
28	78	Jennifer Lentzke	CAN	10:38:20	11:02:34	01:13:54	05:32:32	03:46:53	(178)
29	84	Katy Cargiulo	USA	10:46:20	11:13:49	01:00:38	06:01:46	03:38:56	(180)
30	96	Kathryn King	GBR	10:47:49	11:15:22	01:10:52	05:47:19	03:44:38	(180)
31	83	Cori Burnett	USA	11:03:54	11:32:08	00:57:40	05:54:28	04:06:46	(180)
	80	Hayley Benson	USA	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)
	91	Sarah Haskins	USA	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)
	98	Kara Lapoint	USA	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)
	103	Carrie Mccoy	USA	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)
	106	Frankie Sanjana	GBR	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)
	107	Lauren Thompson	USA	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)
	109	Kelsey Withrow	USA	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

Defending Champion Brent McMahon is the favorite for this year as well. His strongest competition comes from last year’s third place Jordan Rapp. Brent and Jordan have both raced Kona five weeks before Arizona. There are a number of strong swim/bike athletes (Maik Twelsiek who had the fastest bike split in Kona, TJ Tollakson or Andrew Starykowicz who has the fastest Ironman and 70.3 bike times) and it will be interesting to see who will still be able to have a decent run after what I expect to be a very fast and hard bike leg.

Brent McMahon: 37% (2-1)
Jordan Rapp: 27% (3-1)
Maik Twelsiek: 12% (7-1)
TJ Tollakson: 6% (16-1)
Andrew Starykowicz: 6% (17-1)
Marc Duelsen: 4% (26-1)
Jonathan Shearon: 2% (56-1)
Pedro Gomes: 2% (59-1)

Drew Scott is seeded last in my predictions, but that is a result of his 5:28 marathon from IM France. His swim and bike should be good enough to see him close to the front for a good part of the race – hopefully he’ll be able to have a better run this time!

Female Race Participants

The female race has a very interesting mix of athletes who had a good race in Kona and want to do one more decent race with the fitness they have built up (e.g. 4th Michelle Vesterby or 5th Heather Jackson), athletes that didn’t have a good race in Hawaii (e.g. defending Arizona Champion Meredith Kessler who walked most of the Kona marathon and Julia Gajer or Amanda Stevens who DNF’d), and athletes that want to get started on 2016 qualifying (such as Lisa Roberts, Danielle Mack, Camilla Lindholm or Melanie McQuaid). There is an outside chance for Heather Jackson, but I expect the race to be decided between the 2013 podium when Julia won in front of Meredith and Michelle.

Meredith Kessler: 37% (2-1)
Julia Gajer: 29% (2-1)
Michelle Vesterby: 21% (4-1)
~~Heather Jackson: 8% (11-1)~~
~~Danielle Mack: 2% (61-1)~~

An interesting addition to the field is Sarah Haskins who is coming into her first Ironman race with three 70.3 wins.