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Ironman Australia 2015 – Analyzing Results

Course Conditions

This year’s race in Port Macquarie had pretty slow conditions, especially on the run. A low adjustment of -2:35 (mainly caused by a -1:16 run) leads to a new course rating of 4:15. After a few year’s of smaller fields (9 athletes in 2012 and 8 in 2013), this year had a larger field with 16 Pros.

Male Race Results

Paul Ambrose took the lead in the second half of the bike, building a lead of almost 7 minutes into T2. Luke Bell was working hard to close the gap and whittled it down to about a minute with 5k to go. Paul was then able to find another gear and won by just over two minutes while Luke Bell had to settle for second. Brian Fuller finished third, resulting in an all-Australian podium.

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to expected Prize Money
1 Paul Ambrose AUS 00:47:34 04:39:24 03:05:22 08:35:53 -12:50 US$ 10000
2 Luke Bell AUS 00:44:58 04:49:01 03:01:01 08:38:34 -14:46 US$ 5000
3 Brian Fuller AUS 00:48:28 04:49:53 03:08:30 08:49:39 -14:36 US$ 3250
4 Luke Martin AUS 00:50:30 04:54:20 03:08:13 08:56:19 00:32 US$ 2500
5 Nick Baldwin SEY 00:48:24 04:46:59 03:21:11 08:59:44 06:07 US$ 1750
6 Carl Read NZL 00:50:28 05:07:47 02:58:47 09:02:08 04:31 US$ 1250
7 Petr Vabrousek CZE 00:52:43 05:01:17 03:18:07 09:16:07 14:01 US$ 750
8 Dan McGuigan AUS 00:58:38 04:51:16 03:23:50 09:18:50 -40:59 US$ 500
9 Pete Jacobs AUS 00:44:59 04:57:28 03:53:06 09:38:34 49:52  
10 Graham O’Grady NZL 00:44:56 04:59:05 03:51:24 09:38:34 08:22  
11 Matt Randall NZL 00:55:20 04:59:21 03:54:28 09:52:35 00:28  
12 Josef Svoboda CZE 01:09:27 06:07:50 04:16:34 11:42:28 -15:48
  Matt Burton AUS 00:52:37 04:56:32   DNF  
  Peter Robertson AUS 00:48:27 05:05:48   DNF  
  Lachlan Kerin AUS 00:48:21     DNF  

Both Luke Bell (3.665) and Paul Ambrose (2.875) will some more Kona points for a safe July slot. However, Pete Jacobs validated his Automatic Qualifier slot with a 9th place finish in 9:38. He was in the lead until 120k on the bike, but said on Twitter after the race that he ran out of gas at that point. 

Female Race Results

Lisa Marangon was leading the race into T2, but had to end her race early in the run. At that point, Jessica Fleming took the lead, but she was run down by Michelle Bremer who won the race with the fastest marathon. Jessica finished second, while Michelle Gailey took the third place in her come-back race.

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to expected Prize Money
1 Michelle Bremer NZL 00:53:13 05:18:15 03:23:17 09:38:24 -07:28 US$ 10000
2 Jessica Fleming AUS 00:56:26 05:11:50 03:30:35 09:42:18 -10:34 US$ 5000
3 Michelle Gailey AUS 00:52:54 05:24:59 03:28:56 09:50:51 00:01 US$ 3250
4 Marie Sorrell NZL 00:55:52 05:24:53 03:32:24 09:57:06 n/a US$ 2500
5 Caroline Gregory USA 00:53:15 05:44:45 03:35:35 10:16:56 -03:13 US$ 1750
6 Michelle Wu AUS 00:53:18 05:54:08 03:31:52 10:24:49 19:30 US$ 1250
  Lisa Marangon AUS 00:51:59 05:13:34   DNF  
  Christie Sym AUS 00:53:01 05:16:57   DNF  
  Marina Jurjevic AUS 01:00:14     DNF  

At this point, it seems unlikely that any of the female Pro athletes from IM Australia will be able to get a Kona slot.

Number of IMs before Kona

In my post on Why I am #50WomenToKona I mentioned that Kona WPROs raced more often than their male counterparts:

For Kona 2014, the average number of IMs of the male Pros is 2.8, while the female Pros had raced 3.4 IMs.

Some of the feedback I have received indicate that this not widely known, so this post adds some more detail.

First of all, a clear definition of what I mean by “number of IMs before Kona 2014”. Here are the conditions I have used for the averages used in my post:

  • races on or after August 31st 2013 (the date of IM Japan, the start of Kona 2014 qualifying)
  • races before October 11th 2014 (the date of the Kona race)
  • Ironman-distance races (regardless of wether they are “official” Ironman races or races run by other organizations such as Challenge)
  • races that an athlete started (so including finishes as well as DNFs – both are counting towards the “fatigue” an athlete has to deal with before Kona)

Some of these conditions can be fiddled with, but the overall result is still the same – WPRO have raced around 0.5 more IMs than their male counterparts. Here’s a quick comparison of different conditions:

Male Average Female average
IM-distance starts 2.87 3.44
Ironman starts 2.75 3.25
Ironman finishes 2.40 2.94
Ironman finishes up to August 2.40 2.92
Ironman results counting in KPR 2.28 2.79

Staying with my original definition of “IM-distance starts”, here is a look at the distribution of athletes for the number of races before Kona:

IMsBeforeKona

You can clearly see that the main cluster of male athletes has done two or three IMs, while most of the women have done three or four races.

Here is a detailed look at the athletes in each of the groups:

No of Races Male Female
1 Terenzo Bozzone
Richie Cunningham
Jan Frodeno
Paul Matthews
Andy Potts
Timothy Reed
Catriona Morrison
2 Bart Aernouts
Craig Alexander
Igor Amorelli
Kyle Buckingham
Daniel Fontana
Joe Gambles
Ben Hoffman
Jeremy Jurkiewicz
Sebastian Kienle
Timothy O’Donnell
Filip Ospaly
Ivan Rana
Andrew Starykowicz
Boris Stein
Tim Van Berkel
Frederik Van Lierde
Cyril Viennot
Corinne Abraham
Liz Blatchford
Leanda Cave
Daniela Ryf
Caitlin Snow
Kelly Williamson
Heather Wurtele
3 Faris Al-Sultan
Marko Albert
Tyler Butterfield
James Cunnama
Victor Del Corral
Bevan Docherty
Nils Frommhold
Elliot Holtham
Pete Jacobs
Christian Kramer
Eneko Llanos
Chris McDonald
Luke McKenzie
TJ Tollakson
Maik Twelsiek
Marino Vanhoenacker
Michael Weiss
Simone Braendli
Mirinda Carfrae
Linsey Corbin
Mary Beth Ellis
Lucy Gossage
Rachel Joyce
Meredith Kessler
Caroline Steffen
Amanda Stevens
Jodie Swallow
Yvonne Van Vlerken
4 Paul Ambrose
Romain Guillaume
Marek Jaskolka
David Plese
Andreas Raelert
Ronnie Schildknecht
Axel Zeebroek
Natascha Badmann
Gina Crawford
Amber Ferreira
Julia Gajer
Sofie Goos
Asa Lundstroem
Elizabeth Lyles
Kristin Moeller
Kim Schwabenbauer
Beth Shutt
Michelle Vesterby
Bree Wee
5 Christian Brader
Justin Daerr
Daniel Halksworth
Melanie Burke
Katja Konschak
Lisa Roberts
6 Sara Gross
7 Harry Wiltshire Jackie Hering
8 Matthew Russell

Not all of this racing has been motivated by a desire to qualify for Kona – of course there are other reasons for racing such as trying to win an Ironman or to earn some prize money. Looking at those athletes with five or more races, I think that they were motivated more by trying to qualify than by making money: Only Sara Gross has made more than 20,000$ – she made 40,000$ by winning IM Brasil and IM Mt. Tremblant – but she to race Mt. Tremblant in order to qualify.

In summary, the data shows that women Pros raced more often than their male counterparts. The data also indicates that this is a result of the lower number of Kona slots for women and the resulting higher number of points needed to qualify.

Kona Slots and Why I am #50WomenToKona

There has been a lot of discussion on social media about Kona slots and the fact that there are only 35 slots for female Pros and 50 for the men. A lot of people have been arguing for equal WPRO slots in Kona, spearheaded by the #50WomenToKona initiative which has recently solidified into TriEqual (which I am a part of).

While there are a lot of public statements that deserve a longer reply, I would like to use this post to explain my position and the reasoning behind it in a better way than what is possible in the bite-sized format of Twitter.

General Slot Assignment

When space in a race is limited, there has to be some way of choosing the athletes that are allowed to take part in the race. This is especially true for “Championship” type of races such as Kona or ITU championships.

The way I understand it, the ITU has decided to allocate the same number of slots for their championship races to each age group (further breaking it down to x slots per member federation). Ironman has always had a proportional slot assignment: the larger an agegroup in a qualifying race, the more Kona slots will be allocated to it. This also allows the slot assignment to dynamically adapt to changes in the size of agegroups.

In principle, I think that proportional assignment is a rational way to allocate slots. A fixed number of slots leads to agegroups that are “harder” or “easier” to qualify for – the chances to qualify are mainly a function of how large an agegroup is. With proportional slots, the “bigger market” also gets a larger part of the slots and generally the strength and depth of the field in the championship race will be higher.  As long as there is a reasonable number of participants per agegroup in the championship race, there is a low risk of someone failing to qualify that has a shot of placing very well. (For Kona 2014, only the Physically Challenged, WPRO, F-18-24, women older than 60 and men older than 70 had fewer than 40 participants.) Because the Kona agegroup qualifying system guarantees at least one slot per race to each agegroup, it also has a “built in protection” for smaller agegroups.

Why is there so much criticism about the agegroup qualifying system? To me, Ironman is a victim of their own successful expansion: Because Kona is the main selling proposition over Challenge, each new Ironman race requires additional Kona qualifier slots. (The latest new races in Vichy, the Netherlands and Muskoka each have 50 slots.) Obviously, there is limited capability for growing the race in Kona, so adding more races is only possible by taking away slots from existing races. If I remember correctly, around 2005 Frankfurt used to have 150 Kona slots, it is now reduced to 75 slots. The lower number of slots (the recent IM Taiwan only had 25 slots) means that the protection of the smaller agegroups is stronger than with a larger number of slots, and adding new races requires a constant re-juggling of slots. (With the KPR for Pros, adding a new race doesn’t require any changes to the general qualifying system or points-designations.) Also, with fewer slots luck plays a stronger role in qualifying – you have no control over who actually shows up at the race you choose for qualifying. As Ironman will continue to expand, these systems will only get larger over the next years. Therefore, the agegroup qualifying system needs to be updated. Still, proportional slot assignment leads overall to a relatively fair slots distribution and also has a built-in mechanism for adjusting to shifts in the distribution between genders and agegroups.

Why am I #50WomenToKona?

Having said the above, it might come as a bit of a surprise that I support the #50WomenToKona movement that argues for equal female Pro slots in Kona. Here is the tweet that I sent out on March 21st for the first big #50WomenToKona push on social media:

Tweet50WTK

So why do I support  a proportional slot assignment and equal female Pro slots? I think that proportional female Pro slots are an exception to the the general rule. Ironman and their CEO Andrew Messick think that having 35 slots for the Pro women is actually a good deal for them as a purely proportional approach would give them an even lower number of slots. Here is what Andrew said in a recent interview on IMTalk:

Women professional athletes have an easier path to Kona than their male counterparts.

I strongly disagree with Andrew’s statement; instead the KPR system with a lower number of female slots actually leads to severe disadvantages for all Pro women.

Here are a few observations supporting this position:

  • Female Pros need more points for a Kona slot.
    The 2014 July numbers were roughly 4.800 points for the females and 3.500 points for the male. Simplifying things a bit, a male Pro can qualify by racing one Ironman race and a few 70.3s, while a women needs at least two or three full IMs. Also, women are pushed towards the big points races as winning a normal P-2000 Ironman race isn’t even half of what is needed for a Kona slot.
    Although the rules for male and female Pros are the same, the difference in slots essentially creates two different qualifying systems.
  • Because of the different cutoffs resulting from the different number of slots, female Pros have to race more often than male Pros for a Kona slot, usually resulting in higher costs for them that are not necessarily offset by making more prize money.
    For Kona 2014, the average number of IMs of the male Pros is 2.8, while the female Pros had raced 3.4 IMs.
  • As more racing is needed, it is harder to prioritize Kona in order to have a good performance at the World Championships. If women have to race more often, there is less time to properly rest after their last qualifying IM and also have a focused Kona build. Essentially the men’s Kona Pro field is better rested than the women’s field, creating two different Kona races.
    For example Kona 2014 2nd place finisher Ben Hoffmann wouldn’t have qualified as a women, he would have been forced to do another IM instead of being able to prepare for his great Kona performance.
  • Ironman always stresses that they pay equal prize money to men and women. While this is correct, a large part of athlete’s earnings are sponsors payments – and fewer Kona qualifiers means that fewer women have the chance to use this as their “calling card”. Also sponsors typically pay bonuses for Kona qualifying and representing their brands in Kona. Therefore unequal Kona slots create unequal earning opportunities for female Pros.

These differences are a direct result of the unequal number of slots. They affect all professional female athletes – those that qualify for Kona and those who don’t. This is different from qualifying under a proportional system in agegroup ranks: Regardless of the number of slots a female agegrouper can qualify in one Ironman and then focus on their Kona build.

Summary

All of this discussion supports my main point about Kona qualifying: Proportional slot assignment is basically a fair system, but the unequal slots in the KPR create clear inequalities between male and female professionals. Ironman should create equal professional slots as soon as possible in order to avoid these inequalities. They should also be careful not to introduce the same problems when updating their agegroup qualifying system.

TriEqual “Fair Starts Protocol”

On April 29th, TriEqual, the organization dedicated to fairness, development and equality in triathlon proposed the “Fair Starts Protocol” with standardized start gaps to help ensure a clean race for all triathletes. You can learn more on how to support the cause of fair starts and #50WomenToKona on the TriEqual website.

Elements of the “Fair Starts Protocol” are based on my analysis of how the start times impact the mixing of the women’s pro field with MPRO and agegroup fields. Here’s an overview of my longer analysis posts:

The discussion of these races clearly shows the need for a 10 minute gap between MPRO and WPRO and a 25 minute gap to the agegroup men in Ironman races with strong agegroup fields.

I hope that the “Fair Starts Protocol” is adopted on a wide basis, at minimum for big Ironman and 70.3 races such as the world championships and regional championships. I will continue to analyze the adopted start protocols and their impact on how clean the WPRO race was.

Start Gap at 70.3 New Orleans

Three weeks ago, there was a discussion about the start gap between MPRO and WPRO when Angela Naeth received a drafting penalty at 70.3 Oceanside (see my analysis on Oceanside). This weekend, the discussion flared up again after the 70.3 in New Orleans when Lauren Goss posted the following tweet:

LaurenTweet

Here’s a closer look at how the New Orleans race unfolded for the Professional Men (blue) and women (red):

NOLA

You can see that the start gap was at five minutes (as compared to three minutes for Oceanside). Clearly, the front of the women were riding with a number of Pro Men who had a slower swim. 

I’ve made the following recommendations after Oceanside:

  1. Increase the gap between MPRO and WPRO to at least nine minutes. (Logistically, ten minutes might be simpler and would be even safer.)
  2. Any MPRO that is overtaken by a WPRO has to sit up until being cleanly passed and after that keep at least a 20 meter gap, even is that impacts his own race.

From Lauren’s description, it seems obvious that the men that she and Jennifer Spieldenner rode up to were interfering with the women’s race and did not observe my recommendation #2. As for the first suggestion, here’s how the race would have looked with a ten minute gap:

NOLA10

Similar to Oceanside, having a ten minute gap would have avoided any overlap between MPRO and FPRO fields. It would be great to see the recommendations taken up in future races. Even without resorting to more drastic measures such as DQ’ing MPRO that get overtaken by the leading woman, a ten-minute gap would allow the women to have a much cleaner race than what we are often seeing with a smaller gap.

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