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Ironman Barcelona 2014 (Oct 5th) – Predictions

In late 2013, WTC bought the race organizer of Challenge Barcelona, so the race became an Ironman race. From what I know, most of the details of the race (most notably the course) will be the same as in the past. The data for the previous years (winners, course ratings etc.) is from when the race was still a Challenge race, but it should be a good indication of what to expect.

Previous Winners

Year Male Winner Time Female Winner Time
2009 Marcel Zamora (ESP) 08:15:37 Sofie Goos (BEL) 09:08:01
2010 Jimmy Johnsen (DEN) 08:19:43 Lucie Reed (CZE) 09:13:47
2011 Clemente Alonso-McKernan (ESP) 08:15:25 Gabriele Vergano (ITA) 09:12:55
2012 Bas Diederen (NED) 08:20:07 Lucy Gossage (GBR) 08:58:43
2013 Sergio Marques (POR) 08:05:21 Eva Wutti (AUT) 08:51:01

Last Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Sergio Marques POR 00:56:59 04:25:39 02:40:44 08:05:21
2 Tom Lowe GBR 00:59:22 04:23:11 02:43:15 08:07:50
3 Konstantin Bachor GER 00:52:25 04:14:16 03:02:54 08:11:23

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Eva Wutti AUT 01:02:39 04:46:37 02:59:45 08:51:01
2 Lucie Reed CZE 00:56:07 04:51:25 03:08:00 08:57:34
3 Tiina Boman FIN 01:06:31 05:02:31 03:12:13 09:23:16

Course Records

Leg Gender Record Athlete Date
Total overall 08:05:21 Sergio Marques 2013-10-06
Swim overall 00:47:50 Carlos Lopez Diaz 2012-09-30
Bike overall 04:14:16 Konstantin Bachor 2013-10-06
Run overall 02:40:44 Sergio Marques 2013-10-06
Total female 08:51:01 Eva Wutti 2013-10-06
Swim female 00:52:48 Lucie Reed 2010-10-03
Bike female 04:46:33 Mirjam Weerd 2012-09-30
Run female 02:59:45 Eva Wutti 2013-10-06

Course Rating

The Course Rating for Challenge Barcelona is 25:34.

Race Adjustments for Challenge Barcelona

Year Adjustment Swim Adj. Bike Adj. Run Adj. # of Athletes Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating
2009 23:53 -00:58 19:53 02:38 32 23:53 -00:58 19:53 02:38
2010 21:02 -00:59 18:59 01:04 26 22:28 -00:59 19:26 01:51
2011 13:38 -00:36 15:26 -02:24 24 19:31 -00:51 18:06 00:26
2012 31:32 -00:55 12:51 06:11 27 22:31 -00:52 16:47 01:52
2013 37:44 -04:41 14:07 11:13 39 25:34 -01:38 16:15 03:44

Male Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating Rank
1 2 Clemente Alonso-McKernan ESP 08:09:49 08:34:09 00:47:33 04:44:36 02:51:56 21
2 3 Bas Diederen NED 08:20:35 08:45:27 00:48:19 04:47:14 02:58:52 49
3 66 Jens Petersen-Bach DEN 08:22:04 08:47:01 00:51:22 04:46:59 02:53:49 53
4 5 Konstantin Bachor GER 08:22:34 08:47:32 00:49:42 04:30:16 03:11:12 54
5 4 Horst Reichel GER 08:25:25 08:50:32 00:48:29 04:45:26 03:07:56 63
6 12 Herve Faure FRA 08:27:07 08:52:19 00:51:26 04:51:56 03:02:46 (69)
7 15 Jarmo Hast FIN 08:28:46 08:54:03 00:50:13 04:52:26 03:02:47 75
8 6 Miquel Blanchart ESP 08:29:18 08:54:37 00:49:26 04:53:24 02:53:43 78
9 9 Dejan Patrcevic CRO 08:29:40 08:55:00 00:52:16 04:59:20 02:55:12 80
10 17 Denis Chevrot FRA 08:30:30 08:55:52 00:47:51 04:55:33 02:57:45 84
11 32 Matt Trautman ZAF 08:31:18 08:56:42 00:48:15 04:37:31 02:59:18 (88)
12 7 Michael Goehner GER 08:31:57 08:57:23 00:54:12 04:48:01 03:05:30 93
13 13 Simon Billeau FRA 08:32:40 08:58:09 00:52:25 04:44:21 03:17:58 (96)
14 10 Joe Skipper GBR 08:33:26 08:58:57 00:53:00 04:45:43 02:59:02 100
15 56 Domenico Passuello ITA 08:34:55 09:00:30 00:55:11 04:44:35 03:06:07 103
16 1 Sergio Marques POR 08:34:56 09:00:31 00:54:54 05:00:49 02:58:44 105
17 64 Anton Blokhin UKR 08:35:05 09:00:41 00:48:56 04:50:39 03:04:06 107
18 59 Petr Vabrousek CZE 08:35:14 09:00:50 00:55:11 04:52:36 03:03:34 108
19 63 Christophe Bastie FRA 08:36:14 09:01:53 00:53:59 04:46:50 03:11:27 111
20 27 Nicholas Ward Munoz GBR 08:37:25 09:03:08 00:55:27 04:59:13 02:59:25 116
21 53 Sylvain Rota FRA 08:37:48 09:03:32 00:51:39 04:43:05 03:12:45 117
22 26 Markus Thomschke GER 08:38:33 09:04:19 00:53:28 04:44:51 03:09:13 119
23 65 Andrey Lyatskiy RUS 08:40:33 09:06:25 00:48:37 04:55:52 03:11:33 132
24 11 Georg Swoboda AUT 08:41:03 09:06:57 00:56:08 04:39:42 03:14:20 135
25 61 Graeme Stewart GBR 08:42:33 09:08:31 00:53:39 04:52:43 03:04:59 143
26 58 Mike Schifferle SUI 08:43:53 09:09:55 01:00:35 04:52:02 03:06:39 147
27 8 Alberto Casadei ITA 08:46:13 09:12:22 00:46:58 04:47:27 03:06:31 (158)
28 40 Gergö Molnar HUN 08:48:37 09:14:53 00:48:37 04:55:16 03:05:05 (166)
29 54 Gudmund Snilstveit NOR 08:49:12 09:15:30 00:56:55 04:45:12 03:20:03 (167)
30 20 Andres Castillo COL 08:49:39 09:15:58 00:47:38 04:57:46 03:21:35 172
31 14 Ivan Alvarez Gomez ESP 08:53:35 09:20:06 00:56:35 05:04:39 03:01:38 190
32 69 Andreas Borch DEN 08:53:57 09:20:29 00:48:59 04:53:47 03:22:23 (192)
33 35 Vincent Riess AUT 08:55:14 09:21:50 00:54:17 06:00:32 03:00:10 195
34 44 Jens Kaiser GER 08:55:37 09:22:14 00:58:00 04:51:13 03:14:20 197
35 47 Kent Horner ZAF 08:56:09 09:22:48 00:49:18 04:57:03 03:24:09 (199)
36 16 Andreas Niedrig GER 08:58:38 09:25:24 00:47:36 04:51:34 03:38:38 206
37 49 Herve Banti MCO 08:59:11 09:25:59 00:52:09 05:06:20 03:19:55 (207)
38 50 Mark Oude Bennink NED 08:59:40 09:26:29 00:49:03 04:50:15 03:17:52 (209)
39 60 Marcel Bischof GER 09:03:20 09:30:20 00:57:34 04:58:14 03:20:40 (223)
40 18 Darren Jenkins AUS 09:03:21 09:30:21 01:03:40 05:01:31 03:00:01 (223)
41 30 Hendrik-Jan Verhaegen BEL 09:07:14 09:34:26 00:55:57 04:51:59 03:13:18 (236)
42 38 Christian Nilsson NOR 09:09:17 09:36:35 01:00:13 04:47:23 03:17:11 (245)
43 25 Enric Gussinyer ESP 09:11:09 09:38:32 00:52:21 04:55:21 03:31:08 253
44 33 Oliver Simon GBR 09:12:02 09:39:28 00:49:08 04:58:36 03:35:56 259
45 55 Richard Whitfield GBR 09:12:32 09:39:59 00:56:16 04:53:47 03:15:16 (261)
46 51 Matic Modic SLO 09:13:05 09:40:34 00:56:09 05:01:21 03:14:26 (262)
47 19 Antonio Jesus Aguilar Conejo ESP 09:17:41 09:45:24 01:01:22 05:08:56 03:01:18 (278)
48 28 Anders Wagner DEN 09:19:45 09:47:34 01:03:28 05:06:03 03:09:02 (285)
49 62 Jose Ortega Serran ESP 09:20:35 09:48:26 00:56:42 05:02:31 03:20:11 (289)
50 24 Mauro Baertsch SUI 09:21:13 09:49:06 00:52:37 05:34:30 02:52:06 (292)
51 23 Steve Clark GBR 09:22:29 09:50:26 00:58:07 05:03:39 03:21:18 298
52 21 Luca De Paolis ITA 09:31:00 09:59:22 00:59:58 05:00:55 03:37:08 332
53 42 Martin Kleinl AUT 09:32:10 10:00:36 01:01:13 04:52:47 03:32:17 (341)
54 31 Petr Vales CZE 09:45:39 10:14:45 01:03:22 05:16:39 03:23:43 (376)
55 45 Alejandro Jimenez valverde ESP 09:46:38 10:15:47 00:57:43 05:07:09 03:33:10 (376)
56 39 Evgeniy Nikitin RUS 09:48:48 10:18:04 00:51:30 05:15:45 03:56:12 379
57 57 Fernando Cuenllas ESP 09:51:43 10:21:07 00:55:14 05:10:04 03:48:29 (388)
58 29 Remmert Wielinga NED 10:02:51 10:32:48 01:17:55 04:52:31 03:49:37 (417)
59 46 Nicolas Houyoux BEL 10:33:58 11:05:28 00:58:01 05:31:29 03:56:43 (444)
60 67 Florian Kratz GER 10:42:17 11:14:12 01:04:24 05:54:34 03:52:39 (445)
61 43 Maksim Kalinin RUS 10:42:57 11:14:54 01:11:14 05:35:42 03:47:25 (445)
62 68 Marek Nemcik SVK 11:33:05 12:07:31 01:11:27 05:55:14 04:38:04 450
22 Roman Deisenhofer GER n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
34 Christoph Schlagbauer AUT n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
36 Jose Luis Rakos ARG n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
37 Nicolas Pizzol FRA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
41 Mikolaj Luft POL n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
48 Eduardo Crooke Gonzalez ESP n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
52 Ouilleres Gwenael FRA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)

Female Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating Rank
1 97 Erika Csomor HUN 09:08:26 09:35:41 00:58:19 05:14:20 03:13:42 21
2 72 Anja Beranek GER 09:10:31 09:37:52 00:52:51 05:08:06 03:22:46 (25)
3 99 Camilla Pedersen DEN 09:13:55 09:41:26 00:50:53 05:09:12 03:21:40 (32)
4 70 Eva Wutti AUT 09:14:25 09:41:58 00:56:40 05:03:26 03:12:47 (33)
5 93 Mareen Hufe GER 09:16:59 09:44:40 01:00:30 05:08:04 03:26:28 39
6 73 Daniela Saemmler GER 09:22:20 09:50:17 00:54:31 05:12:42 03:25:03 50
7 71 Lucie Reed CZE 09:22:51 09:50:49 00:51:08 05:20:53 03:29:16 52
8 85 Regula Rohrbach SUI 09:33:52 10:02:23 00:56:50 05:08:59 03:36:00 77
9 77 Elisabeth Gruber AUT 09:34:46 10:03:20 01:00:24 05:18:33 03:16:46 (79)
10 102 Camilla Lindholm SWE 09:36:23 10:05:01 01:08:25 05:19:52 03:16:32 82
11 74 Beate Goertz GER 09:39:48 10:08:37 01:04:49 05:12:56 03:27:52 87
12 82 Carolin Lehrieder GER 09:43:37 10:12:37 00:56:56 05:29:53 03:15:02 (94)
13 75 Evi Neuscheler GER 09:45:53 10:15:00 01:03:06 05:15:52 03:27:30 (98)
14 88 Jacqui Gordon USA 09:49:40 10:18:58 01:00:31 05:27:28 03:39:03 99
15 90 Monique Grossrieder SUI 09:52:24 10:21:50 01:04:34 05:32:59 03:23:51 105
16 101 Tine Holst DEN 09:53:29 10:22:58 01:08:01 05:17:49 03:37:36 107
17 80 Joanna Carritt GBR 09:53:40 10:23:10 01:02:36 05:30:35 03:36:00 108
18 98 Kristin Lie NOR 09:53:43 10:23:13 01:12:49 05:21:17 03:31:07 109
19 89 Katharina Grohmann GER 09:55:27 10:25:02 01:14:22 05:26:24 03:21:45 116
20 76 Nina Pekerman ISR 09:55:55 10:25:32 00:59:00 05:32:15 03:37:16 (118)
21 96 Nicole Woysch GER 09:58:32 10:28:17 00:58:35 05:30:28 03:47:30 124
22 78 Emma Graaf SWE 10:04:05 10:34:06 00:59:07 05:31:26 03:43:21 129
23 91 Lena Holmgren SWE 10:10:30 10:40:50 01:04:04 05:35:51 03:28:32 (137)
24 87 Amy Forshaw GBR 10:14:51 10:45:24 01:03:41 05:38:14 03:33:21 140
25 100 Eleanor Haresign GBR 10:17:28 10:48:09 00:59:53 05:31:43 03:37:56 (142)
26 84 Kathrin Walther GER 10:17:56 10:48:38 01:00:04 05:35:30 03:48:29 142
27 81 Vanessa Pereira POR 10:19:44 10:50:32 01:02:05 05:39:42 03:43:12 143
28 79 Rahel Bellinga NED 10:20:31 10:51:21 01:01:57 05:15:26 04:01:04 (145)
29 92 Angela Kuehnlein GER 10:25:45 10:56:51 01:02:37 05:30:54 03:51:24 (148)
30 95 Line Foss NOR 10:45:12 11:17:16 01:27:11 05:31:34 03:45:27 (154)
31 86 Anna Rovira garrido ESP 10:45:42 11:17:47 01:17:35 05:29:09 03:50:24 (155)
83 Susie Hignett GBR n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
94 Darbi Roberts USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

Clemente appears to be the clear favorite, but there is a big group of athletes that will look for a great autumn performance:

  • Clemente Alonso-McKernan: 39% (2-1)
  • Horst Reichel: 30% (2-1)
  • Bas Diederen: 17% (5-1)
  • Markus Thomschke: 3% (30-1)
  • Michael Goehner: 3% (36-1)
  • Jens Petersen-Bach: 2% (55-1)
  • Konstantin Bachor: 2% (65-1)

Female Race Participants

The women’s field is a great mixture of young & fast athletes (Eva and Camilla who had some problems and DNF’d in Frankfurt) and solid established athletes such as Erika or Lucie:

  • Eva Wutti: 37% (2-1)
  • Camilla Pedersen: 31% (2-1)
  • Anja Beranek: 19% (4-1)
  • Erika Csomor: 5% (19-1)
  • Lucie Reed: 3% (36-1)

Ironman Chattanooga 2014 (Sept 28th) – Predictions

This is the first race on this course.

After the cancellation of IM Tahoe, I expect a few late additions to the list – apparently WTC is allowing some transfers to Chattanooga. I haven’t seen an updated list yet, but at least Trevor Wurtele, Malaika Homo and Uli Bromme have tweeted that they are going to start. (Other possible starters are Derek Garcia, Trevor Delsaut, and Anne Basso.)

Update Sept 25th: The start list has been updated: There are a few additions from the canceled IM Lake Tahoe and also some DNSs. I have added the additions to the table and updated the odds, and crossed out the DNSs.

KPR points and Prize Money

IM Chattanooga has 2000 KPR points for the winner. It has a total prize purse of 25k$.

Male Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating Rank
1 2 Pedro Gomes POR n/a 08:48:07 00:50:29 04:44:56 03:04:59 57
2 6 Swen Sundberg GER n/a 08:51:56 00:52:16 04:45:13 03:08:18 68
3 8 Per Bittner GER n/a 08:53:29 00:49:21 04:47:55 03:07:22 71
4 21 Daniel Bretscher USA n/a 08:54:28 00:51:02 04:46:26 03:01:00 77
(5) 78 Trevor Delsaut FRA n/a 08:56:38 00:53:58 04:53:18 02:59:24 87
(5) 48 Trevor Wurtele CAN n/a 08:57:29 00:53:31 04:46:15 03:09:07 94
5 1 Patrick Evoe USA n/a 08:58:03 00:55:37 04:46:17 03:06:44 95
6 20 Matt Hanson USA n/a 08:58:30 00:54:56 04:56:28 02:50:58 97
7 4 Thomas Gerlach USA n/a 09:04:54 00:54:20 04:45:36 03:14:21 124
8 17 Guilherme Manocchio BRA n/a 09:08:10 unrated unrated unrated 138
9 3 Matt Lieto USA n/a 09:08:23 00:51:35 04:48:06 03:17:18 142
10 47 Mathias Hecht SUI n/a 09:09:31 00:50:05 04:57:00 03:16:09 (146)
11 40 Jonathan Shearon USA n/a 09:10:12 00:53:26 04:47:26 03:12:33 151
12 9 Andrew Drobeck USA n/a 09:13:24 01:06:11 04:45:21 02:51:34 (160)
13 22 Gergö Molnar HUN n/a 09:14:53 00:48:37 04:55:16 03:05:05 (166)
(14) 49 Derek Garcia USA n/a 09:15:45 00:53:21 04:47:21 03:16:32 169
14 34 AJ Baucco USA n/a 09:16:17 00:00:00 04:56:27 03:10:58 175
15 26 Chris Boudreaux USA n/a 09:18:55 00:51:49 04:53:50 03:11:45 188
16 18 Chad Holderbaum USA n/a 09:20:45 00:54:57 04:54:16 03:13:37 192
17 35 Ryan Rau USA n/a 09:30:29 00:58:43 05:10:51 03:03:48 224
18 15 Douglas MacLean USA n/a 09:32:25 00:58:18 05:04:04 03:09:43 227
19 10 Rene Vallant AUT n/a 09:32:35 00:55:03 04:51:08 03:31:55 (228)
20 5 Mike Hermanson USA n/a 09:33:12 00:53:53 05:05:11 03:17:56 232
21 11 Blake Becker USA n/a 09:36:47 00:53:00 05:02:23 03:34:02 249
22 12 Devon Palmer USA n/a 09:39:34 00:53:08 04:52:58 03:34:22 (263)
23 27 Raymond Botelho USA n/a 09:47:57 00:55:00 04:59:06 03:36:32 291
24 42 Kyle Pawlaczyk USA n/a 09:49:30 00:56:06 05:14:35 03:26:42 297
25 25 Jim Lamastra USA n/a 09:51:41 00:51:28 04:57:56 03:46:02 307
26 43 Tom Wood USA n/a 09:51:52 00:54:44 05:13:53 03:18:07 (308)
27 31 Jim Lubinski USA n/a 09:52:29 01:02:45 05:15:18 03:17:57 312
28 14 Matthew Curbeau USA n/a 10:02:25 01:02:11 05:03:00 03:34:10 (349)
29 28 Jeff Paul USA n/a 10:04:02 01:03:43 05:07:41 03:27:11 352
30 23 Aubrey Aldy USA n/a 10:05:54 01:05:30 05:23:26 03:11:12 358
31 19 Peter Kotland CZE n/a 10:11:14 00:57:40 05:18:22 03:36:47 368
32 46 Paul Eicher USA n/a 10:13:02 00:52:31 05:00:04 03:54:00 (374)
33 37 Robbie Wade IRL n/a 10:25:23 00:58:18 05:09:16 03:47:38 (407)
34 33 Ryan Borger USA n/a 10:35:11 00:57:07 05:23:50 03:35:36 (422)
7 Brent McMahon CAN n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
13 Andrew Fast USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
16 Darrel Williams USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
24 Eric Limkemann USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
29 Josh Beck USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
30 Jonathan Fecik USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
32 Matt Shanks USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
36 Adam Otstot USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
38 Steve Rosinski USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
39 Nicholas Brodnicki USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
41 Adam Kosmicki USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
44 Matt Ison USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
45 Karol Kristov EST n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
50 Barrett Brandon USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)

Female Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating Rank
1 68 Jennie Hansen USA n/a 09:46:35 01:04:09 05:21:41 03:11:59 43
2 51 Nina Kraft GER n/a 09:52:30 00:51:37 05:22:45 03:20:51 59
3 52 Jackie Arendt USA n/a 09:57:49 00:55:03 05:28:05 03:23:24 68
4 53 Angela Naeth CAN n/a 09:59:24 00:58:18 05:04:56 03:31:15 (72)
5 54 Mackenzie Madison USA n/a 10:03:33 00:59:47 05:20:22 03:22:04 80
(6) 76 Malaika Homo USA n/a 10:04:34 00:53:04 05:22:42 03:34:52 (82)
6 75 Laurel Wassner USA n/a 10:08:53 00:53:32 05:35:25 03:11:54 (89)
7 66 Whitney Garcia USA n/a 10:09:08 00:59:23 05:22:05 03:27:16 89
8 67 Christine Hammond USA n/a 10:09:13 00:54:40 05:25:56 03:33:41 90
9 58 Brooke Brown CAN n/a 10:19:21 01:05:11 05:21:48 03:20:19 (101)
(10) 76 Anne Basso FRA n/a 10:21:47 00:57:28 05:31:08 03:38:08 104
10 71 Cindy Lewis CAN n/a 10:27:35 01:02:31 05:34:03 03:33:41 124
11 64 Kelly Fillnow USA n/a 10:28:26 01:06:35 05:33:39 03:28:10 126
12 61 Anna Cleaver NZL n/a 10:31:27 00:53:02 05:38:57 03:24:37 (127)
13 62 Jocelyn Cornman USA n/a 10:32:53 01:00:31 05:39:51 03:26:44 (130)
14 70 Heather Leiggi USA n/a 10:39:19 01:02:47 05:28:46 03:46:15 (135)
15 60 Morgan Chaffin USA n/a 10:40:41 00:57:55 05:29:58 03:54:30 (136)
16 59 Kate Bruck USA n/a 10:40:49 01:05:55 05:39:05 03:24:20 (138)
17 73 Kathryn Thomas USA n/a 10:45:33 00:53:19 05:26:04 03:51:00 (142)
18 72 Tami Ritchie USA n/a 10:53:02 00:51:59 05:54:34 03:48:59 147
19 56 Ali Black USA n/a 11:02:37 01:03:22 05:33:25 03:49:11 (153)
74 Rebeccah Wassner USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
57 Ruth Brennan Morrey USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
69 Hannah Lawrence NZL n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
55 Kaitlin Anelauskas USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
63 Janet Edwards USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
65 Shannon Florea USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

  • Daniel Bretscher: 33% (2-1)
  • Pedro Gomes: 25% (3-1)
  • Mathias Hecht: 22% (4-1)
  • Per Bittner: 7% (14-1)
  • Swen Sundberg: 4% (25-1)
  • Patrick Evoe: 4% (27-1)
  • Matt Hanson: 2% (45-1)
  • Guilherme Manocchio: 2% (51-1)
  • Daniel Bretscher: 32% (2-1)
  • Pedro Gomes: 25% (3-1)
  • Trevor Wurtele: 18% (5-1)
  • Trevor Delsaut: 9% (10-1)
  • Per Bittner: 7% (14-1)
  • Patrick Evoe: 3% (31-1)
  • Swen Sundberg: 3% (35-1)
  • Matt Hanson: 2% (58-1)
  • Guilherme Manocchio: 2% (60-1)

Female Race Participants

  • Nina Kraft: 39% (2-1)
  • Jennie Hansen: 30% (2-1)
  • Angela Naeth: 10% (9-1)
  • Jackie Arendt: 5% (17-1)
  • Laurel Wassner: 5% (18-1)
  • Brooke Brown: 4% (26-1)
  • Mackenzie Madison: 4% (27-1)
  • Nina Kraft: 38% (2-1)
  • Jennie Hansen: 31% (2-1)
  • Angela Naeth: 10% (9-1)
  • Jackie Arendt: 5% (20-1)
  • Laurel Wassner: 4% (23-1)
  • Mackenzie Madison: 3% (28-1)
  • Brooke Brown: 3% (33-1)
  • Malaika Homo: 3% (38-1)

Ironman Mallorca 2014 (Sept 27th) – Predictions

IM Mallorca is a new race for this year, therefore there can’t be a course rating or time predictions.

KPR points and Prize Money

IM Mallorca has 2000 KPR points for the winner. It has a total prize purse of 25k$.

Male Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating Rank
1 1 Timo Bracht GER n/a 08:23:26 00:49:13 04:35:50 02:51:25 4
2 2 Ronnie Schildknecht SUI n/a 08:30:14 00:51:13 04:36:43 02:55:42 13
3 4 Bert Jammaer BEL n/a 08:47:58 00:49:01 04:45:10 03:04:44 56
4 37 Miquel Blanchart ESP n/a 08:54:37 00:49:26 04:53:24 02:53:43 78
5 42 Michael Goehner GER n/a 08:57:23 00:54:12 04:48:01 03:05:30 93
6 54 Alessandro Degasperi ITA n/a 08:58:53 00:51:15 04:42:02 02:58:55 (99)
7 5 Joe Skipper GBR n/a 08:58:57 00:53:00 04:45:43 02:59:02 100
8 46 Domenico Passuello ITA n/a 09:00:30 00:55:11 04:44:35 03:06:07 103
9 53 Mike Aigroz SUI n/a 09:00:54 00:49:36 04:47:10 03:17:49 109
10 16 Nicholas Ward Munoz GBR n/a 09:03:08 00:55:27 04:59:13 02:59:25 116
11 48 Nick Baldwin SEY n/a 09:04:52 00:53:13 04:45:45 03:05:41 123
12 9 Pontus Lindberg SWE n/a 09:04:57 00:52:42 04:51:03 03:02:36 125
13 11 Dominik Berger AUT n/a 09:08:12 00:48:22 04:51:30 03:19:04 140
14 7 Mike Schifferle SUI n/a 09:09:55 01:00:35 04:52:02 03:06:39 147
15 26 Alejandro Santamaria ESP n/a 09:09:55 00:55:21 04:57:30 03:04:39 (147)
16 10 Daniel Niederreiter AUT n/a 09:10:15 00:51:56 04:56:24 03:11:06 152
17 27 Jacob Frandsen DEN n/a 09:11:06 00:54:40 04:44:06 03:14:24 (154)
18 13 Patrick Jaberg SUI n/a 09:14:21 00:52:42 04:52:06 03:12:45 163
19 43 Karl-Johan Danielsson SWE n/a 09:15:17 00:48:43 04:45:48 03:24:30 166
20 49 Fabio Carvalho BRA n/a 09:17:49 00:52:47 05:22:33 03:12:39 (185)
21 38 Niclas Bock GER n/a 09:21:22 00:50:54 04:39:27 03:16:20 (194)
22 39 Kent Horner ZAF n/a 09:22:48 00:49:18 04:57:03 03:24:09 (199)
23 15 Tomas Mika CZE n/a 09:27:00 00:55:00 05:06:25 03:04:40 (214)
24 24 Samuel Huerzeler SUI n/a 09:29:46 00:53:59 05:01:24 03:04:29 (223)
25 36 Marcel Bischof GER n/a 09:30:20 00:57:34 04:58:14 03:20:40 (224)
26 55 Edo Van der Meer NED n/a 09:33:01 00:48:02 04:51:40 03:38:07 (230)
27 8 Henrik Oftedal NOR n/a 09:35:29 01:01:12 04:49:20 03:22:19 (242)
28 33 Manuel Wyss SUI n/a 09:37:26 00:53:03 05:16:43 03:14:01 (251)
29 12 Ivan Jezko SVK n/a 09:41:02 00:58:30 04:59:38 03:22:48 266
30 32 Carlos Lopez Diaz ESP n/a 09:42:59 00:47:30 04:53:40 03:29:00 (274)
31 6 Brendan Naef CAN n/a 09:49:14 00:57:26 05:12:35 03:21:36 295
32 34 Daniel Mueller GER n/a 09:51:15 00:51:46 05:08:47 03:39:28 (305)
33 50 Alfred Rahm GER n/a 09:53:11 01:02:15 05:08:34 03:24:07 316
34 29 Gerald Ratschke AUT n/a 09:53:28 01:05:18 05:11:12 03:11:12 (318)
35 22 Martin Kleinl AUT n/a 10:00:36 01:01:13 04:52:47 03:32:17 (344)
36 17 Michael Louys BEL n/a 10:00:43 01:01:58 04:59:58 03:29:00 (346)
37 19 Nis Lind DEN n/a 10:12:18 01:00:08 05:05:26 03:42:35 371
38 56 Manuel Kueng SUI n/a 10:13:20 00:46:50 05:01:45 03:57:26 (374)
39 31 Anders Lawaetz DEN n/a 10:20:23 01:02:49 05:06:52 03:40:28 (387)
40 14 Ludovic Le Guellec FRA n/a 10:20:52 01:00:56 05:24:57 03:33:59 389
41 51 Vincent Depuiset FRA n/a 10:26:36 01:08:36 05:09:55 03:31:35 (410)
42 57 Alberto Codinach ESP n/a 10:27:49 00:55:33 04:58:20 03:58:33 (413)
43 30 Teemu Kyllonen FIN n/a 10:28:20 01:00:45 05:14:39 03:48:03 414
44 52 Ignacio Rubio Gomez ESP n/a 11:43:11 00:52:04 05:42:22 04:26:04 (452)
3 Tim Don GBR n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
18 Richard Allen GBR n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
20 DJ Snyder USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
21 Miguel Fidalgo ESP n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
23 Christoph Schlagbauer AUT n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
25 Andreas Thissen GER n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
28 Jens Frommhold GER n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
35 Armin Atzlinger AUT n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
40 Matthias Knossalla GER n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
41 Jose Luis Rakos ARG n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
44 Nick Dunn GBR n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
45 Niels Brandt-Joergensen DEN n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
47 Bekim Christensen DEN n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)

Female Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating Rank
1 79 Sonja Tajsich GER n/a 09:32:36 01:01:35 05:11:54 03:10:09 17
2 82 Eimear Mullan IRL n/a 09:58:40 01:00:13 05:23:39 03:14:13 69
3 80 Camilla Lindholm SWE n/a 10:05:01 01:08:25 05:19:52 03:16:32 83
4 64 Dede Griesbauer USA n/a 10:05:27 00:51:38 05:17:10 03:46:45 85
5 61 Astrid Ganzow GER n/a 10:07:54 00:58:32 05:09:46 03:32:19 (88)
6 63 Natascha Schmitt GER n/a 10:20:13 00:53:41 05:33:35 03:28:52 (102)
7 67 Maria Lemeseva RUS n/a 10:21:01 01:07:08 05:30:01 03:22:07 104
8 78 Tine Holst DEN n/a 10:22:58 01:08:01 05:17:49 03:37:36 108
9 62 Saleta Castro ESP n/a 10:23:21 00:56:19 05:28:10 03:39:55 112
10 65 Karina Ottosen DEN n/a 10:23:28 00:58:36 05:34:10 03:32:29 113
11 74 Linda Schuecker GER n/a 10:27:05 01:03:09 05:25:15 03:41:52 122
12 66 Nicole Woysch GER n/a 10:28:17 00:58:35 05:30:28 03:47:30 125
13 75 Helena Herrero Gomez ESP n/a 10:42:51 01:02:19 05:42:08 03:17:15 (138)
14 71 Anna Halasz HUN n/a 10:51:02 01:07:59 05:26:22 03:45:51 (146)
15 70 Zsuzsanna Harsanyi HUN n/a 11:04:26 01:03:54 06:00:45 03:48:07 (154)
16 81 Conny Dauben GER n/a 11:07:19 01:08:35 05:42:59 03:58:56 (154)
17 73 Kristina Wiegand GER n/a 11:58:27 01:06:58 06:18:20 04:24:23 157
68 Bianca Steurer AUT n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
69 Jenny Schulz GER n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
77 Mette Pettersen Moe NOR n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
76 Nina Kuhn GER n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
72 Kamila Polak AUT n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

Timo Bracht is the clear front runner (especially considering that #2-seeded Ronnie Schildknecht will probably be a DNS with his Kona start):

  • Timo Bracht: 54% (1-1)
  • Ronnie Schildknecht: 32% (2-1)
  • Mike Aigroz: 7% (14-1)
  • Michael Goehner: 2% (49-1)
  • Bert Jammaer: 2% (55-1)
An interesting IM rookie will be Tim Don – recently 3rd in the 70.3 Championships.

Female Race Participants

On the women’s side, Sonja Tajsich is looking for a good finish to a long season with lots of ups and downs:

  • Sonja Tajsich: 42% (1-1)
  • Eimear Mullan: 28% (3-1)
  • Natascha Schmitt: 11% (8-1)
  • Camilla Lindholm: 8% (11-1)
  • Dede Griesbauer: 3% (28-1)
  • Astrid Ganzow: 2% (45-1)

Interview with Luke McKenzie on Kona 2014

Luke McKenzie was one of the big surprises in Kona 2013. Since then, he hasn’t had another really great result: He validated his Kona slot in Melbourne with a 13th place finish after some helmet strap issues, then finished Roth in 10th place. On the personal side, he and his partner Beth Gerdes became parents to their daughter Wynne who will be just over four months old when daddy has to race in Kona. Beth helped me get Luke’s perspective on Kona 2014 for my upcoming Kona Rating Report (pre-order here).

Luke McKenzie

Thorsten: How was your season so far?

Luke: Honestly I had two very disappointing Iron-distance races. I felt really well prepared for both, but neither panned out as I expected. In Roth, I had to make the decision to “shut it down” in the run and saved my legs. I felt as though I recovered really quickly from Roth.
Those are behind me as I head into Kona. I think the proof is there that I’ve been in contention the last three years in Hawaii so it’s definitely a race that suits me and my strengths. I also have the 110% physical and mental focus on Hawaii all year long that I never quite get for other races- which can be both a weakness and an asset.

T: How is your preparation different for Kona? 

L: My preparation for Kona is a bit more consistent each year than my prep is throughout the rest of the year and it’s the one race that I truly get excited to train for each and every day. I base myself in Bend, OR for 6 weeks each summer to really focus in on training and nothing else and I know this sets me up well. I also arrive on the Big Island 3 to 4 weeks ahead of the race, which also seems to be an important key for me.

T: From your perspective, what makes the Kona race or course special?

L: That’s what excites me personally about Kona. I feel like I thrive in the harsh conditions that the island brings and I actually hope for the toughest, windiest, hottest day possible out there. I train my body and my mind to welcome whatever the day brings and the tougher the better.

T: What would be a good result for you this year?

L: A great result for me would be Top 5, but realistically I think that after having the race I did last year, I see the potential that I can win it. I think Hawaii is its own beast and hard to compare to other races when it comes to ratings and results.

T: Who is the most underrated athlete?

L: I’d go with Jan Frodeno and myself of course. On the women’s side, I think Heather Wuertle will do better than her prediction – she seems in form for at least a top 10.

(Photo Credit: Jay Prasuhn)

Interview with Julia Gajer on Kona 2014

Here is the next Kona interview that will also be part of my upcoming Kona Rating Report (you can already pre-order): This one is with Julia Gajer, another German athlete that might surprise a lot of people with a good Kona result.

Julia Gajer

Thorsten: Can you give some background on how you got started in Triathlons?

Julia: I got late into the sport and did my first triathlon in 2008 (Olympic distance). I grew up being a swimmer but didn’t have the talent to qualify for German or International Championships. During my time at university (I studied Pharmacy) I was really tired of swimming and therefore had about to years of not doing any sports before I started to run by myself just once or twice a week. In 2008 when I started my PhD, I bought a bike and raced my first three triathlons (two olympic, one half), which I all won. From that point on I was infected with the triathlon virus. In 2009/10 I raced Olympic distance races in the Baden-Württemberg Liga, some half distances (IM 70.3 Wiesbaden 2010, 5th place) and Powerman Zofingen 2009 (4th place), while working full time in a lab on my PhD thesis. In 2011 I became part of the Team Erdinger Alkoholfrei Junior team, which helped me quite a lot to develop as an athlete. We got the chance to train with the professional team and pick up a lot of stuff. In 2011 I did my first long distance race in Roth in which I finished 2nd. At the end of 2011 I was able to successfully complete my PhD, turned full-time Pro and became a member of the Team Erdinger Alkoholfrei Professional team.

T: How was your season so far?

J: I’m pretty happy with my season so far as my first goal for this year was to get a Kona slot. Eventhough I didn’t have a dream race (putting together a great bike and run) so far at the long distance events I raced, I really feel that I got stronger in all three disciplines this year. At the half distance race in Kraichgau, you could get a glimpse of what is possible when I perform well during the whole race. Therefore, I’m working quite hard right now to put it all together in Kona.

T: You’ve probably heard a lot of stories about Kona and what makes it special. Have you been able to see the course yourself?

J: I was able to fly over to watch the race and explore the course in 2012. From the first glimpse at the television, it doesn’t look too hard. But if you are on the course yourself it really is tough and honest. A real World Championship course. The heat and the wind make it even more challenging, especially on the run. That’s why I think that you really need to be ready to race Kona. When I flew over in 2012, my plan was to qualify for 2013, but when I watched the race and trained on the course, I felt that my mind and body were not yet ready for the race, that’s why I waited another year.
There are some things that make Kona special: the conditions and the great depth of the field. For me it is really an honor and it gives me a lot of extra motivation to race the best athletes in one race.

T: How do you prepare for Kona and how is that different from a “regular” IM?

J: I prepare at home as I have really good training possibilities here and feel most comfortable sleeping in my own bed. I fly to Kona two weeks before the race to allow enough time to adapt to the time shift and climate.
My coach and I created a special preparation for each of my long distance races. There are some basic sessions that you always do, but apart from that we’ve developed a specific preparation for each race. So I don’t really have a typical preparation that I can compare to my Kona prep.

T: What are your expectations for Kona?

J: If I can put it all together, a Top 10 result is possible, this would be a great result for my first Kona race.

T: Julia, have a great first race in Kona!

(Photo Credit: Privatbrauerei ERDINGER Weißbräu)

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