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KPR Thoughts – Validation

At a quick glance, the „Kona Pro Ranking“ (or KPR for short) determines just how Professional athletes qualify for Kona. However, the KPR is much more important, it has an impact on races (by determining „important“ races it strongly influences where Professional athletes race), athletes (encouraging, almost forcing them to plan their season in order to qualify) and allocation of prize money (loosely following the points allocation). Therefore, changes to the KPR should be carefully considered – and are also hotly debated.

I want to go through a few of the issues being discussed, trying to summarize where the discussion stands, to give my assessment of likely changes, and also to add some of my own thoughts. Rather than doing this in one large blog post, I will write a number of smaller posts, each focusing on a single issue. Assuming that WTC will not dramatically change the system, my goal is not to discuss all possible ideas, but focus on those that are relatively close to the existing system and therefore have at least a little chance to be considered.

The first issue I want to discuss is validation.

Technically, validation describes the requirement of having to finish one full distance Ironman race outside of Kona in order to be eligible for a Kona slot. Most often, this is discussed in the context of previous champions. They are automatic qualifiers for five years after their win as long as they “validate their entry by completing one full-distance Ironman race, excluding Kona, during the Qualifying Year.” Some of the past champions have voiced concerns about this, most notably Craig Alexander who made it clear that he would prefer to race just one full Ironman per year – in Kona. The recent 70.3 champion and the Hy Vee champion are also automatic qualifiers (but only for the year immediately following their title) and the Kona Top 10 usually have enough points to ensure a points slot.

There have been at least two incidents where athletes clearly just competed to finish and not to place well:

  • Andreas Raelert walked the marathon in IM Regensburg in 2011 with a calf injury.
  • Mirinda Carefrae just completed IM Florida 2013 after her fantastic Kona win. Both Mirinda and husband Tim O’Donnell made it clear that they would take things easy on the run, complete with joking on twitter about what comfort food to consume on the run.
  • There may be a third incident later this year, with Pete Jacobs announcing that he would „just walk“ an Ironman after bowing out of IM Texas not being 100% fit.

My own views on this issue have changed a bit over the years. I think it is obvious that no-one thinks that a recent Kona winner is not „worthy“ of starting in the Kona Pro field. But if Kona winners could just rock up to Kona, they might have an unfair advantage: By not having to race any IMs, they could be more rested than all the other participants that have to struggle for points to make it to Kona. Therefore, I am (a bit reluctantly) agreeing with the concept of validation. However, I’m sure that if everyone is interested, WTC, the local race organizer and sponsors, the athlete and the athlete’s sponsors could produce something that is a worthwhile for everyone involved (joint press releases, athlete’s appearances, sponsor give-aways, promos etc.).

In the recent interview with Bob Babbitt, Andrew Messick said the following about the rules for validation (Andrew said he doesn’t begrudge Mirinda, so this shouldn’t be seen as a personal attack on the athletes):

We have a set of rules, and there are always ways in which motivated people can get around the intent of the rule. Sometimes we tolerate it, and if we find it intolerable, we change the rules.

After Florida I was thinking that WTC would think that enforcing validation isn’t very helpful, and would instead switch to something like „one IM or two 70.3s”. However, now it more sounds as if WTC will further tighten the requirements for validation, probably something like “x% within the winner” or “not more than y minutes slower than the winner”.

My assessment: Validation will continue to be required for all Kona qualifiers. If there are going to be changes, the requirements for validation will be tightened.

Ironman Lanzarote 2014 – Analyzing Results

Race Conditions

Conditions in Lanzarote were pretty normal for this year’s race: hot and windy. This is reflected in a normal swim time, a very slow bike (-18:40, but normal for Lanza) and a run that was a little bit slower than what is usual (-1:27, about three minutes slower than normal).

Male Race Results

Romain Guillaume took control of the race in the bike, and then went ahead and posted a solid sub-three marathon to win the race.

LanzaGuillaume

Miquel Blanchard ran through the field with a 2:48 run split and finished in second place again. Third place went to Bert Jammaer.

There were quite a lot of notable DNFs. Among them are Markus Thomschke, Michael Goehner, Scott Neyedli, and Ronnie Schildknecht — all were hoping to secure KPR points and will have to re-think their qualifying strategy.

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to expected
1 Romain Guillaume FRA 00:47:31 04:56:07 02:57:55 08:47:39 -30:16
2 Miquel Blanchart ESP 00:49:58 05:13:53 02:48:12 08:58:06 -02:49
3 Bert Jammaer BEL 00:47:51 05:02:55 03:03:35 09:00:44 -04:03
4 Joel Jameson GBR 00:57:08 05:03:00 03:01:48 09:08:32 -08:08
5 Henrik Hyldelund DEN 00:47:19 04:57:01 03:18:13 09:09:14 -19:13
6 Christian Brader GER 00:55:42 05:15:47 02:52:51 09:10:57 -08:05
7 Darby Thomas FIN 00:56:17 05:06:03 03:01:59 09:11:38 -04:43
8 Kirill Kotshegarov EST 00:51:58 05:03:35 03:11:30 09:14:28 10:00
9 Ivan Alvarez Gomez ESP 00:55:15 05:22:42 02:54:45 09:19:37 -30:42
10 Patrick Jaberg SUI 00:51:56 05:13:13 03:07:13 09:19:50 -05:49
11 Nicholas Ward Munoz GBR 00:52:03 05:17:05 03:04:36 09:20:59 01:48
12 Jens Kaiser GER 00:55:20 05:04:25 03:16:23 09:23:07 -03:57
13 Andrey Lyatskiy RUS 00:48:54 05:21:41 03:06:06 09:23:56 03:01
14 Roeland Smits NED 00:51:59 05:11:33 03:14:24 09:25:08 -02:32
15 Mike Schifferle SUI 01:06:06 05:09:04 03:01:53 09:28:33 05:26
16 Samuel Huerzeler SUI 00:54:15 05:25:57 03:03:37 09:34:17 n/a
17 Flo Kriegl AUT 00:55:15 05:17:24 03:15:10 09:34:55 11:40
18 Miguel Platero ESP 00:51:55 05:11:07 03:27:21 09:39:27 n/a
19 Dominik Berger AUT 00:47:45 05:13:15 03:29:56 09:39:57 17:31
20 Jose Ortega Serran ESP 00:55:37 05:27:48 03:21:50 09:53:32 -02:13
21 Marcus Hultgren SWE 00:58:02 05:23:18 03:45:36 10:14:49 n/a
22 Ludovic Le Guellec FRA 01:00:43 05:51:37 03:35:44 10:36:03 10:38
23 Teemu Kyllonen FIN 01:01:05 05:42:09 03:48:42 10:44:23 13:49
24 Victor Rodriguez ESP 00:56:22 05:31:29 04:47:30 11:23:37 n/a
25 Jorge Rakos ARG 00:51:54 08:20:15 06:57:36 16:24:24 1:15:10
26 Paul Hawkins GBR 00:47:51 DNF
27 Christian Birngruber AUT 00:52:04 05:07:12 DNF
28 Fernando Cuenllas ESP 00:57:07 05:44:19 DNF
29 Craig Twigg GBR 00:51:57 05:09:09 DNF
30 Markus Thomschke GER 00:52:02 05:06:42 DNF
31 Michael Goehner GER 00:52:05 05:10:33 DNF
32 Sergio Marques POR 00:52:04 05:44:06 DNF
33 Rayco Miguel Marrero ESP 00:52:00 05:08:05 DNF
34 Kasper Ougaard DEN 01:00:05 05:26:39 DNF
35 Joe Skipper GBR 00:53:31 DNF
36 Scott Neyedli GBR 00:49:58 DNF
37 Trevor Delsaut FRA 00:52:00 05:07:25 DNF
38 Ronnie Schildknecht SUI 00:52:02 DNF

Female Race Results

There were two surprise leaders after the bike: Stefanie Adam (in her first race as a Pro) and Susan Blatt posted the best bike splits. Stefanie faded a bit on the run finishing sixth, but Susan held on for second place. She was run down by Lucy Gossage who methodically worked her way to the front.

LanzaLucy

Third place went to Corinne Abraham who had a solid race after her prolonged injury in the second half of 2013.

Last year’s winner Kristin Moeller was too far back after the bike to challenge for the win. The other athlete returning from an injury was Sonja Tajsich who was happy to finish a race, even if it was in eight place – apparently she had some technical problems on the bike.

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to expected
1 Lucy Gossage GBR 00:55:37 05:31:38 03:07:20 09:41:40 -05:04
2 Susan Blatt GER 00:56:28 05:27:07 03:14:24 09:44:59 -15:58
3 Corinne Abraham GBR 00:56:23 05:42:53 03:06:10 09:51:41 -04:18
4 Kristin Moeller GER 01:02:04 05:44:50 03:11:46 10:05:55 09:09
5 Saleta Castro ESP 00:55:16 05:45:33 03:23:38 10:12:35 -26:50
6 Stefanie Adam BEL 00:55:04 05:28:39 03:46:09 10:17:54 n/a
7 Camilla Lindholm SWE 01:08:30 05:46:41 03:20:16 10:23:13 02:21
8 Sonja Tajsich GER 00:59:43 06:03:14 03:24:58 10:35:55 44:29
9 Gurutze Frades Larralde ESP 01:01:43 06:14:45 03:13:00 10:38:18 01:56
10 Eleanor Haresign GBR 00:59:03 05:54:06 03:39:36 10:42:10 n/a
11 Joanna Carritt GBR 01:03:36 05:52:40 03:39:33 10:44:19 02:03
12 Line Margareta Foss NOR 01:28:11 06:09:59 03:47:30 11:40:15 n/a
13 Regula Rohrbach SUI 00:58:48 05:36:44 DNF
14 Christine Waitz GER 01:09:03 06:42:34 DNF
15 Anne Basso FRA 00:57:43 06:38:47 DNF
16 Vanessa Pereira POR 01:05:41 06:23:18 DNF
17 Alena Stevens SVK 01:05:31 05:57:10 DNF
18 Beate Goertz GER 01:07:15 DNF

Photo Credit: Michael Rauschendorfer (Twitter feed of tri2b.com) and Twitter feed of Kevin MacKinnon.

Ironman Texas 2014 – Analyzing Results

Race Conditions

A week before the race it looked as if there would be really hot conditions. However, conditions were not too bad on race day (there was even a wetsuit legal swim) and the race conditions were the fastest we have seen in Texas since it was first held in 2011. All three legs were a little bit quicker than normal, leading to an overall adjustment of 18:30 for 2014 and a new course rating of 12:40.

Male Race Results

Jordan Rapp quickly overcame his normal swim deficit, and was the clear leader into T2. But it was quickly apparent that he was struggling a bit on the run, and Bevan Docherty took the lead and managed to win the race, apparently overcoming the nutrition problems he had in his last races.

TexasBevan

Jordan was even forced off the podium, second place went to Matthew Russell and third to Justin Daerr – two athletes that had really good races and finished with strong 2:52 marathons.

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to expected
1 Bevan Docherty NZL 00:47:55 04:26:59 02:49:17 08:09:37 -11:16
2 Matthew Russell USA 00:55:18 04:21:28 02:52:44 08:14:53 -22:44
3 Justin Daerr USA 00:52:09 04:28:24 02:52:16 08:17:29 -14:14
4 Jordan Rapp USA 00:52:02 04:19:11 03:02:14 08:17:58 05:25
5 Chris McDonald AUS 00:52:05 04:26:29 02:59:06 08:22:51 -05:46
6 Matt Hanson USA 00:53:43 04:46:16 02:41:38 08:25:51 -22:22
7 Clay Emge USA 00:53:52 04:36:51 02:52:22 08:28:52 n/a
8 Brandon Marsh USA 00:46:38 04:28:26 03:10:52 08:31:38 -03:30
9 Balazs Csoke HUN 00:48:01 04:32:39 03:07:11 08:33:06 -15:09
10 James Chesson USA 00:55:22 04:35:25 03:01:57 08:37:12 n/a
11 Timothy Reed AUS 00:48:00 04:32:46 03:16:42 08:42:32 n/a
12 Chad Holderbaum USA 00:55:30 04:37:17 03:06:51 08:44:53 -15:50
13 Stephen Bayliss GBR 00:47:51 04:40:06 03:16:48 08:49:19 18:34
14 Patrick Schuster USA 01:00:05 04:38:34 03:10:14 08:56:00 -55:37
15 Douglas MacLean USA 00:55:27 04:45:20 03:09:21 08:56:46 -07:39
16 Raymond Botelho USA 00:53:53 04:33:46 03:24:16 08:58:07 -25:49
17 Nathan Buttrick USA 01:01:16 04:43:18 03:11:15 09:01:20 -07:27
18 Jozsef Major HUN 00:55:34 04:39:57 03:21:30 09:02:51 31:26
19 Matthew Curbeau USA 00:59:53 04:44:22 03:16:23 09:07:02 -55:21
20 Allan Villanueva MEX 00:55:23 04:57:51 03:29:00 09:28:45 13:24
21 Ed Donner USA 00:59:53 04:56:10 03:34:52 09:36:56 -22:45
22 Peter Kotland USA 00:55:31 05:08:34 03:37:40 09:50:44 17:34
23 Kyle Hughes USA 00:52:14 05:15:35 04:09:00 10:22:57 n/a
24 Jose Jeuland FRA 00:51:54 04:36:11 DNF
25 Bas Diederen NED 00:47:58 04:27:01 DNF
26 Paul Amey GBR 00:52:56 DNF
27 Robert Wade IRL 00:55:58 05:01:26 DNF
28 Jens Petersen-Bach DEN 00:51:53 DNF
29 Chris Boudreaux USA 00:52:11 04:39:04 DNF
30 Thomas Gerlach USA 00:52:05 05:22:27 DNF

Female Race Results

For most of the day, Julia Gajer was in the lead. She forgot to bring her best run and was eventually overtaken by Kelly Williamson who ran a fantastic 2.54 marathon to take the win:

TexasKelly

Amer Ferreira took the final spot on the podium. Bree Wee was a good fourth, and Jennie Hansen had a solid race after all her early season issues. Sarah Piampiano was in the mix, but ran into issues in the last part of the run (injury) and had to walk the last 1.5 miles. My pre-race favorite Eva Wutti struggled in the heat and called it a day after severe cramps on the bike.

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to expected
1 Kelly Williamson USA 00:51:49 05:03:51 02:54:46 08:54:42 -19:50
2 Julia Gajer GER 00:52:36 04:53:43 03:09:34 09:00:51 -03:26
3 Amber Ferreira USA 00:52:58 05:02:16 03:11:24 09:11:48 -31:53
4 Bree Wee USA 00:53:00 05:03:41 03:12:19 09:14:27 -15:33
5 Tamara Kozulina UKR 01:02:31 05:00:46 03:06:40 09:15:19 -13:10
6 Jennie Hansen USA 01:04:58 05:01:48 03:06:45 09:18:51 -00:49
7 Jessica Meyers USA 00:59:45 05:05:11 03:14:21 09:23:33 -30:17
8 Jackie Arendt USA 00:53:48 05:09:34 03:18:44 09:27:05 -12:06
9 Cindy Lewis CAN 00:59:47 05:07:59 03:16:38 09:29:53 -35:00
10 Sarah Piampiano USA 01:02:28 04:53:04 03:37:14 09:38:56 11:40
11 Heather Leiggi USA 00:59:50 05:06:34 03:27:43 09:39:30 -58:44
12 Olesya Prystayko UKR 01:02:33 05:08:57 03:30:08 09:46:21 -04:55
13 Jocelyn Cornman USA 00:59:55 05:22:23 03:22:41 09:50:12 n/a
14 Christina Jackson USA 00:53:24 05:18:10 03:35:35 09:52:45 n/a
15 Christine Fletcher CAN 00:59:59 05:08:03 03:44:45 09:58:54 02:27
16 Rachel Jastrebsky USA 00:59:59 05:25:24 03:28:23 09:59:11 -05:05
17 Amy Javens USA 01:05:29 05:07:01 03:42:11 10:00:12 n/a
18 Sara Gross CAN 00:55:31 05:10:15 03:54:25 10:05:13 18:36
19 Tami Ritchie USA 00:51:57 05:22:58 03:44:51 10:05:55 -22:32
20 Palmira Alvarez MEX 01:18:24 05:25:29 03:48:08 10:39:22 n/a
21 Suzy Serpico USA 00:55:17 05:27:12 04:13:48 10:43:15 27:48
22 Rahel Bellinga NED 01:05:19 05:07:11 DNF
23 Eva Wutti AUT 00:55:28 DNF
24 Kristina Wiegand GER 01:05:12 06:11:30 DNF
25 Ali Black USA 01:08:28 05:17:10 DNF

Photo Credits: Nils Nilsen, taken from the N2PhotoServices Instagram

Ironman Brasil 2014 (May 25th) – Predictions

Update: When writing this post, I had missed that Lisa Ribes is now married and changed her name to Lisa Roberts. I’ve added her rating into the table and used them in calculating the updated odds.

You can submit your top picks on IM Predictions for a chance to win some nice prizes!

Previous Winners

Year Male Winner Time Female Winner Time
2005 Olaf Sabatschus (GER) 08:50:37 Joanna Zeiger (USA) 09:31:43
2006 Oscar Galindez (ARG) 08:15:19 Lisbeth Kristensen (DEN) 09:20:47
2007 Oscar Galindez (ARG) 08:21:09 Nina Kraft (GER) 09:12:40
2008 Eduardo Sturla (ARG) 08:28:24 Fernanda Keller (BRA) 09:42:50
2009 Eduardo Sturla (ARG) 08:13:39 Dede Griesbauer (USA) 09:10:15
2010 Luke McKenzie (AUS) 08:07:38 Tereza Macel (CZE) 09:19:12
2011 Eduardo Sturla (ARG) 08:13:12 Amy Marsh (USA) 09:07:49
2012 Ezequiel Morales (ARG) 08:22:40 Sofie Goos (BEL) 09:17:42
2013 Timothy O’Donnell (USA) 08:01:32 Amanda Stevens (USA) 09:05:53

Last Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Timothy O’Donnell USA 00:44:24 04:22:23 02:50:18 08:01:32
2 Igor Amorelli BRA 00:46:20 04:33:47 02:54:17 08:19:40
3 Stefan Schmid GER 00:50:53 04:32:44 02:56:04 08:25:02

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Amanda Stevens USA 00:48:44 04:51:29 03:20:05 09:05:53
2 Sara Gross CAN 00:52:30 05:01:27 03:09:44 09:08:38
3 Jessie Donavan USA 00:59:49 04:50:29 03:15:07 09:10:29

Course Records

Leg Gender Record Athlete Date
Total overall 08:01:32 Timothy O’Donnell 2013-05-26
Swim overall 00:42:26 Luke McKenzie 2010-05-30
Bike overall 04:22:23 Timothy O’Donnell 2013-05-26
Run overall 02:49:31 Ezequiel Morales 2010-05-30
Total female 09:05:53 Amanda Stevens 2013-05-26
Swim female 00:45:48 Dede Griesbauer 2010-05-30
Bike female 04:48:10 Silvia Felt 2013-05-26
Run female 03:09:44 Sara Gross 2013-05-26

Course Rating

The Course Rating for IM Brasil is 18:00.

Race Adjustments for IM Brasil

Year Adjustment Swim Adj. Bike Adj. Run Adj. # of Athletes Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating
2005 n/a n/a n/a n/a 1 n/a n/a n/a n/a
2006 17:56 01:58 04:03 00:53 21 17:56 01:58 04:03 00:53
2007 14:49 -00:15 07:08 03:08 24 16:22 00:51 05:36 02:00
2008 10:01 -06:37 11:37 01:20 25 14:15 -01:38 07:36 01:47
2009 21:12 -00:29 09:56 03:54 25 15:59 -01:21 08:11 02:19
2010 22:18 04:14 09:56 00:33 36 17:15 -00:14 08:32 01:58
2011 21:15 n/a n/a n/a 26 17:55 -00:14 08:32 01:58
2012 17:16 02:25 21:28 -04:11 23 17:50 00:13 10:41 00:56
2013 19:13 02:39 16:07 04:04 33 18:00 00:33 11:28 01:23

KPR points and Prize Money

IM Brasil has 2000 KPR points for the winner. It has a total prize purse of 75k$.

Male Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating Rank
1 2 Igor Amorelli BRA 08:23:31 08:40:53 00:47:56 04:45:16 03:03:33 46
2 20 Marcel Zamora ESP 08:24:50 08:42:14 00:50:27 04:50:05 02:54:07 (50)
3 31 Santiago Ascenco BRA 08:28:12 08:45:43 00:50:56 04:49:57 03:02:41 58
4 33 Ezequiel Morales ARG 08:36:01 08:53:48 00:52:29 04:56:35 02:59:54 98
5 8 Guilherme Manocchio BRA 08:39:14 08:57:08 00:49:32 05:03:08 03:05:05 111
6 26 Petr Vabrousek CZE 08:40:15 08:58:11 00:54:51 04:52:49 03:03:37 121
7 34 Mario De Elias ARG 08:41:58 08:59:58 00:51:22 04:59:45 03:07:19 125
8 19 Keegan Williams NZL 08:44:33 09:02:38 00:52:32 04:52:59 03:10:42 143
9 15 Timothy Marr USA 08:46:09 09:04:17 00:57:00 05:02:28 03:23:56 (149)
10 29 Michael Davidson ZAF 08:48:03 09:06:15 00:55:05 04:53:52 03:03:33 (159)
11 21 Lucas Cocha ARG 08:48:23 09:06:36 00:49:21 04:59:38 03:16:06 159
12 18 AJ Baucco USA 08:48:50 09:07:04 00:52:35 04:50:32 03:12:34 (162)
13 30 Luiz Francisco Ferreira BRA 08:53:25 09:11:49 00:46:26 05:02:23 03:19:05 179
14 22 Ciro Violin BRA 08:59:13 09:17:48 00:51:11 05:02:35 03:17:58 199
15 24 Harry Wiltshire GBR 08:59:29 09:18:05 00:47:00 04:48:14 03:38:30 201
16 14 Fabio Carvalho BRA 09:00:21 09:18:59 00:52:48 05:23:07 03:12:48 (203)
17 13 Raul Furtado BRA 09:01:05 09:19:44 00:52:57 04:51:48 03:28:52 204
18 10 James Brown GBR 09:09:05 09:28:01 01:01:11 05:00:21 03:14:46 234
19 9 Blake Becker USA 09:11:36 09:30:37 00:53:15 05:01:06 03:32:51 243
20 27 Christian Carletto ARG 09:28:11 09:47:46 00:55:18 05:15:45 03:30:03 309
21 25 Felipe De Oliveira Manente BRA 09:35:28 09:55:19 00:53:27 05:05:10 03:38:44 (331)
22 7 Benjamin Munizaga CHI 09:42:10 10:02:14 00:51:15 05:05:25 03:48:50 (356)
23 16 Richard Wygand BRA 10:19:47 10:41:09 01:04:46 05:29:02 03:58:20 419
24 32 Marcio Roniak BRA 11:22:16 11:45:47 01:12:36 05:45:52 04:32:03 (435)
3 Alexandre Aguiar Moura BRA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
11 Luan Ortiz Silva BRA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
23 Frank Souza BRA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
6 Juraci Moreira Jr. BRA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
28 Santiago Rodriguez URU n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
17 Edmilson Pereira BRA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
4 Roberto Rivera CHL n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
5 Anderson Agenor Santos BRA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
12 Raphael Galvao Menezes dos santos BRA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)

Female Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating Rank
1 53 Jessie Donavan USA 09:17:03 09:36:15 01:07:17 05:06:36 03:15:05 27
2 65 Sofie Goos BEL 09:21:02 09:40:23 00:55:33 05:19:13 03:20:40 35
3 56 Lisa Roberts USA 09:22:05 09:41:27 01:04:29 05:18:15 03:12:24 44
4 58 Lucie Reed CZE 09:27:27 09:47:01 00:51:01 05:20:54 03:29:45 52
5 62 Ariane Monticeli BRA 09:37:31 09:57:26 01:02:44 05:34:34 03:20:32 76
6 59 Vanessa Gianinni BRA 09:39:30 09:59:29 00:55:14 05:27:14 03:26:50 (80)
7 63 Heidi Sessner GER 09:44:28 10:04:37 00:56:44 05:32:42 03:32:04 91
8 52 Sara Gross CAN 09:47:06 10:07:21 00:57:18 05:43:21 03:22:38 92
9 64 Jacqui Gordon USA 09:53:31 10:13:59 01:00:26 05:28:56 03:36:52 105
10 60 Ana Lidia Borba BRA 10:02:29 10:23:15 00:55:25 05:24:28 03:53:25 122
11 57 Mariana Andrade BRA 10:03:15 10:24:03 01:01:08 05:33:58 03:53:13 126
12 61 Federica Frontini URU 10:23:18 10:44:47 01:09:07 05:42:36 03:48:34 (142)
13 55 Conny Dauben GER 10:36:41 10:58:38 01:08:36 05:43:01 03:59:12 146
14 54 Fernanda Garcia BRA 10:50:33 11:12:59 00:57:10 06:00:10 03:55:27 (150)

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

Based on the raw numbers, Marcel Zamora is the favorite – he has won IM France a five times, but he hasn’t raced an Ironman since 2011 and it’s not clear what he is still able to do. He faces a strong contingent of South American athletes such as Ezequiel Morales (winner in 2012), Igor Amorelli (second last year and 13th in Kona), Santiago Ascenso (always racing well in his home race) or Guilherme Manocchio (who placed as high as 2nd in 2011).

  • Marcel Zamora: 43% (1-1)
  • Ezequiel Morales: 22% (3-1)
  • Igor Amorelli: 16% (5-1)
  • Santiago Ascenco: 6% (16-1)
  • Guilherme Manocchio: 5% (18-1)

Female Race Participants

A female Brazilian winner is unlikely – with almost equal chances between American Jessie Donavan (3rd last year and recently 4th in South Africa), Czech/South African Lucie Reed (Zelenkova), Canadian Sara Gross (2nd last year, but coming off a string of DNFs) and Belgian Sofie Goos.

  • Jessie Donavan: 24% (3-1)
  • Lucie Reed: 23% (3-1)
  • Sara Gross: 19% (4-1)
  • Sofie Goos: 18% (4-1)
  • Lisa Roberts: 13% (7-1)

Andrew Messick interview on Competitor Radio

Andrew Messick, the CEO of WTC, recently chatted with Bob Babbitt from Competitor Radio. The Messick/Babbit interview can be found here: http://competitorradio.competitor.com/2014/05/andrew-messick-3/.

Andrew made a few interesting statements regarding Kona and Kona qualification (starting about 23 minutes into the interview). His statements have re-started my thinking about the KPR, but I will need some more time to think through some of the implications. Here, I just wanted to record Andrew’s statements (both for me and others interested in this subject).

The following are all direct quotes by Andrew (all I added was to give some context if necessary).

Regarding the need for previous champions to validate by finishing a full Ironman

There’s two sides: One is „I’m gonna save my legs“. But then they show up and do this race in Germany in July [referring to Challenge Roth]. And so is it really saving your legs? We can’t help but notice that and it detracts pretty dramatically from the credibility of the argument that we’re doing it to save our legs. Roth’s a great race, there’s no doubt about it, and I don’t blame professional athletes for making a living however they want to. But then you need to use a different argument when you’re talking about validation. I can’t begrudge Mirinda for punching her Kona ticket in [Florida] last year. We have a set of rules, and there are always ways in which motivated people can get around the intent of the rule. Sometimes we tolerate it, and if we find it intolerable, we change the rules.

On potential changes to the KPR

We feel that a lot of the KPR elements are correct and accurate. Although, we probably will change – maybe substantially – how the KPR works in 2015. We haven’t made any decision yet, but we have listened to a lot of feedback around depth of payout and dilution of field. With the number of races that we’re adding on our global series, you could argue that it’s outstripping the magnitude of a quality professional athlete pool. And so one of the things we’re having a serious look at is whether we should have fewer races that have points and pro dollars, particularly in North America and have those prize purses be bigger, have points be higher and pay deeper.

The following statements were made in the context of 70.3s, but my understanding is that the number of races and St. George were just an example, and that they are also valid for full-distance races:

Instead of having 30 races [in North America], what if you had six that were like St. George. Bigger prize money, and you pay deeper, so there’s still a compelling earning opportunity for the Pros. And some of the Pros who aren’t necessarily top 5 athletes still get paid, they still get some points, they still have a chance to get to worlds. You could make a pretty compelling case that the caliber of racing and the interest would be better if you repurposed a lot of that prize money towards a smaller number of races and let the big boys duke it out.

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