Skip to content

Thorsten

Ironman Brasil 2014 (May 25th) – Predictions

Update: When writing this post, I had missed that Lisa Ribes is now married and changed her name to Lisa Roberts. I’ve added her rating into the table and used them in calculating the updated odds.

You can submit your top picks on IM Predictions for a chance to win some nice prizes!

Previous Winners

Year Male Winner Time Female Winner Time
2005 Olaf Sabatschus (GER) 08:50:37 Joanna Zeiger (USA) 09:31:43
2006 Oscar Galindez (ARG) 08:15:19 Lisbeth Kristensen (DEN) 09:20:47
2007 Oscar Galindez (ARG) 08:21:09 Nina Kraft (GER) 09:12:40
2008 Eduardo Sturla (ARG) 08:28:24 Fernanda Keller (BRA) 09:42:50
2009 Eduardo Sturla (ARG) 08:13:39 Dede Griesbauer (USA) 09:10:15
2010 Luke McKenzie (AUS) 08:07:38 Tereza Macel (CZE) 09:19:12
2011 Eduardo Sturla (ARG) 08:13:12 Amy Marsh (USA) 09:07:49
2012 Ezequiel Morales (ARG) 08:22:40 Sofie Goos (BEL) 09:17:42
2013 Timothy O’Donnell (USA) 08:01:32 Amanda Stevens (USA) 09:05:53

Last Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Timothy O’Donnell USA 00:44:24 04:22:23 02:50:18 08:01:32
2 Igor Amorelli BRA 00:46:20 04:33:47 02:54:17 08:19:40
3 Stefan Schmid GER 00:50:53 04:32:44 02:56:04 08:25:02

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Amanda Stevens USA 00:48:44 04:51:29 03:20:05 09:05:53
2 Sara Gross CAN 00:52:30 05:01:27 03:09:44 09:08:38
3 Jessie Donavan USA 00:59:49 04:50:29 03:15:07 09:10:29

Course Records

Leg Gender Record Athlete Date
Total overall 08:01:32 Timothy O’Donnell 2013-05-26
Swim overall 00:42:26 Luke McKenzie 2010-05-30
Bike overall 04:22:23 Timothy O’Donnell 2013-05-26
Run overall 02:49:31 Ezequiel Morales 2010-05-30
Total female 09:05:53 Amanda Stevens 2013-05-26
Swim female 00:45:48 Dede Griesbauer 2010-05-30
Bike female 04:48:10 Silvia Felt 2013-05-26
Run female 03:09:44 Sara Gross 2013-05-26

Course Rating

The Course Rating for IM Brasil is 18:00.

Race Adjustments for IM Brasil

Year Adjustment Swim Adj. Bike Adj. Run Adj. # of Athletes Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating
2005 n/a n/a n/a n/a 1 n/a n/a n/a n/a
2006 17:56 01:58 04:03 00:53 21 17:56 01:58 04:03 00:53
2007 14:49 -00:15 07:08 03:08 24 16:22 00:51 05:36 02:00
2008 10:01 -06:37 11:37 01:20 25 14:15 -01:38 07:36 01:47
2009 21:12 -00:29 09:56 03:54 25 15:59 -01:21 08:11 02:19
2010 22:18 04:14 09:56 00:33 36 17:15 -00:14 08:32 01:58
2011 21:15 n/a n/a n/a 26 17:55 -00:14 08:32 01:58
2012 17:16 02:25 21:28 -04:11 23 17:50 00:13 10:41 00:56
2013 19:13 02:39 16:07 04:04 33 18:00 00:33 11:28 01:23

KPR points and Prize Money

IM Brasil has 2000 KPR points for the winner. It has a total prize purse of 75k$.

Male Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating Rank
1 2 Igor Amorelli BRA 08:23:31 08:40:53 00:47:56 04:45:16 03:03:33 46
2 20 Marcel Zamora ESP 08:24:50 08:42:14 00:50:27 04:50:05 02:54:07 (50)
3 31 Santiago Ascenco BRA 08:28:12 08:45:43 00:50:56 04:49:57 03:02:41 58
4 33 Ezequiel Morales ARG 08:36:01 08:53:48 00:52:29 04:56:35 02:59:54 98
5 8 Guilherme Manocchio BRA 08:39:14 08:57:08 00:49:32 05:03:08 03:05:05 111
6 26 Petr Vabrousek CZE 08:40:15 08:58:11 00:54:51 04:52:49 03:03:37 121
7 34 Mario De Elias ARG 08:41:58 08:59:58 00:51:22 04:59:45 03:07:19 125
8 19 Keegan Williams NZL 08:44:33 09:02:38 00:52:32 04:52:59 03:10:42 143
9 15 Timothy Marr USA 08:46:09 09:04:17 00:57:00 05:02:28 03:23:56 (149)
10 29 Michael Davidson ZAF 08:48:03 09:06:15 00:55:05 04:53:52 03:03:33 (159)
11 21 Lucas Cocha ARG 08:48:23 09:06:36 00:49:21 04:59:38 03:16:06 159
12 18 AJ Baucco USA 08:48:50 09:07:04 00:52:35 04:50:32 03:12:34 (162)
13 30 Luiz Francisco Ferreira BRA 08:53:25 09:11:49 00:46:26 05:02:23 03:19:05 179
14 22 Ciro Violin BRA 08:59:13 09:17:48 00:51:11 05:02:35 03:17:58 199
15 24 Harry Wiltshire GBR 08:59:29 09:18:05 00:47:00 04:48:14 03:38:30 201
16 14 Fabio Carvalho BRA 09:00:21 09:18:59 00:52:48 05:23:07 03:12:48 (203)
17 13 Raul Furtado BRA 09:01:05 09:19:44 00:52:57 04:51:48 03:28:52 204
18 10 James Brown GBR 09:09:05 09:28:01 01:01:11 05:00:21 03:14:46 234
19 9 Blake Becker USA 09:11:36 09:30:37 00:53:15 05:01:06 03:32:51 243
20 27 Christian Carletto ARG 09:28:11 09:47:46 00:55:18 05:15:45 03:30:03 309
21 25 Felipe De Oliveira Manente BRA 09:35:28 09:55:19 00:53:27 05:05:10 03:38:44 (331)
22 7 Benjamin Munizaga CHI 09:42:10 10:02:14 00:51:15 05:05:25 03:48:50 (356)
23 16 Richard Wygand BRA 10:19:47 10:41:09 01:04:46 05:29:02 03:58:20 419
24 32 Marcio Roniak BRA 11:22:16 11:45:47 01:12:36 05:45:52 04:32:03 (435)
3 Alexandre Aguiar Moura BRA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
11 Luan Ortiz Silva BRA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
23 Frank Souza BRA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
6 Juraci Moreira Jr. BRA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
28 Santiago Rodriguez URU n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
17 Edmilson Pereira BRA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
4 Roberto Rivera CHL n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
5 Anderson Agenor Santos BRA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
12 Raphael Galvao Menezes dos santos BRA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)

Female Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating Rank
1 53 Jessie Donavan USA 09:17:03 09:36:15 01:07:17 05:06:36 03:15:05 27
2 65 Sofie Goos BEL 09:21:02 09:40:23 00:55:33 05:19:13 03:20:40 35
3 56 Lisa Roberts USA 09:22:05 09:41:27 01:04:29 05:18:15 03:12:24 44
4 58 Lucie Reed CZE 09:27:27 09:47:01 00:51:01 05:20:54 03:29:45 52
5 62 Ariane Monticeli BRA 09:37:31 09:57:26 01:02:44 05:34:34 03:20:32 76
6 59 Vanessa Gianinni BRA 09:39:30 09:59:29 00:55:14 05:27:14 03:26:50 (80)
7 63 Heidi Sessner GER 09:44:28 10:04:37 00:56:44 05:32:42 03:32:04 91
8 52 Sara Gross CAN 09:47:06 10:07:21 00:57:18 05:43:21 03:22:38 92
9 64 Jacqui Gordon USA 09:53:31 10:13:59 01:00:26 05:28:56 03:36:52 105
10 60 Ana Lidia Borba BRA 10:02:29 10:23:15 00:55:25 05:24:28 03:53:25 122
11 57 Mariana Andrade BRA 10:03:15 10:24:03 01:01:08 05:33:58 03:53:13 126
12 61 Federica Frontini URU 10:23:18 10:44:47 01:09:07 05:42:36 03:48:34 (142)
13 55 Conny Dauben GER 10:36:41 10:58:38 01:08:36 05:43:01 03:59:12 146
14 54 Fernanda Garcia BRA 10:50:33 11:12:59 00:57:10 06:00:10 03:55:27 (150)

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

Based on the raw numbers, Marcel Zamora is the favorite – he has won IM France a five times, but he hasn’t raced an Ironman since 2011 and it’s not clear what he is still able to do. He faces a strong contingent of South American athletes such as Ezequiel Morales (winner in 2012), Igor Amorelli (second last year and 13th in Kona), Santiago Ascenso (always racing well in his home race) or Guilherme Manocchio (who placed as high as 2nd in 2011).

  • Marcel Zamora: 43% (1-1)
  • Ezequiel Morales: 22% (3-1)
  • Igor Amorelli: 16% (5-1)
  • Santiago Ascenco: 6% (16-1)
  • Guilherme Manocchio: 5% (18-1)

Female Race Participants

A female Brazilian winner is unlikely – with almost equal chances between American Jessie Donavan (3rd last year and recently 4th in South Africa), Czech/South African Lucie Reed (Zelenkova), Canadian Sara Gross (2nd last year, but coming off a string of DNFs) and Belgian Sofie Goos.

  • Jessie Donavan: 24% (3-1)
  • Lucie Reed: 23% (3-1)
  • Sara Gross: 19% (4-1)
  • Sofie Goos: 18% (4-1)
  • Lisa Roberts: 13% (7-1)

Andrew Messick interview on Competitor Radio

Andrew Messick, the CEO of WTC, recently chatted with Bob Babbitt from Competitor Radio. The Messick/Babbit interview can be found here: http://competitorradio.competitor.com/2014/05/andrew-messick-3/.

Andrew made a few interesting statements regarding Kona and Kona qualification (starting about 23 minutes into the interview). His statements have re-started my thinking about the KPR, but I will need some more time to think through some of the implications. Here, I just wanted to record Andrew’s statements (both for me and others interested in this subject).

The following are all direct quotes by Andrew (all I added was to give some context if necessary).

Regarding the need for previous champions to validate by finishing a full Ironman

There’s two sides: One is „I’m gonna save my legs“. But then they show up and do this race in Germany in July [referring to Challenge Roth]. And so is it really saving your legs? We can’t help but notice that and it detracts pretty dramatically from the credibility of the argument that we’re doing it to save our legs. Roth’s a great race, there’s no doubt about it, and I don’t blame professional athletes for making a living however they want to. But then you need to use a different argument when you’re talking about validation. I can’t begrudge Mirinda for punching her Kona ticket in [Florida] last year. We have a set of rules, and there are always ways in which motivated people can get around the intent of the rule. Sometimes we tolerate it, and if we find it intolerable, we change the rules.

On potential changes to the KPR

We feel that a lot of the KPR elements are correct and accurate. Although, we probably will change – maybe substantially – how the KPR works in 2015. We haven’t made any decision yet, but we have listened to a lot of feedback around depth of payout and dilution of field. With the number of races that we’re adding on our global series, you could argue that it’s outstripping the magnitude of a quality professional athlete pool. And so one of the things we’re having a serious look at is whether we should have fewer races that have points and pro dollars, particularly in North America and have those prize purses be bigger, have points be higher and pay deeper.

The following statements were made in the context of 70.3s, but my understanding is that the number of races and St. George were just an example, and that they are also valid for full-distance races:

Instead of having 30 races [in North America], what if you had six that were like St. George. Bigger prize money, and you pay deeper, so there’s still a compelling earning opportunity for the Pros. And some of the Pros who aren’t necessarily top 5 athletes still get paid, they still get some points, they still have a chance to get to worlds. You could make a pretty compelling case that the caliber of racing and the interest would be better if you repurposed a lot of that prize money towards a smaller number of races and let the big boys duke it out.

Ironman Lanzarote 2014 (May 17th) – Predictions

Have some fun predicting the Lanzarote podium at IM Predictions – and you may even win a nice prize!

Previous Winners

Year Male Winner Time Female Winner Time
2005 Ain-Alar Juhanson (EST) 08:55:38 Virginia Berasategui (ESP) 10:09:40
2006 Ain-Alar Juhanson (EST) 08:54:14 Karin Thuerig (SUI) 09:52:45
2007 Eneko Llanos (ESP) 08:49:39 Tiina Boman (FIN) 09:58:42
2008 Bert Jammaer (BEL) 08:59:40 Bella Bayliss (GBR) 10:02:30
2009 Bert Jammaer (BEL) 08:54:03 Bella Bayliss (GBR) 09:54:58
2010 Eneko Llanos (ESP) 08:37:43 Catriona Morrison (GBR) 10:03:53
2011 Timo Bracht (GER) 08:30:34 Rachel Joyce (GBR) 09:28:12
2012 Victor Del Corral (ESP) 08:44:39 Michelle Vesterby (DEN) 09:58:06
2013 Faris Al-Sultan (GER) 08:42:40 Kristin Moeller (GER) 09:37:34

Last Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Faris Al-Sultan GER 00:47:48 04:53:03 02:55:03 08:42:40
2 Miquel Blanchart ESP 00:47:55 05:04:03 02:54:20 08:52:08
3 Kirill Kotshegarov EST 00:51:42 05:06:34 02:58:58 09:04:09

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Kristin Moeller GER 01:00:03 05:31:47 02:58:37 09:37:34
2 Heleen Bij De Vaate NED 01:05:41 05:39:08 03:17:28 10:09:31
3 Saleta Castro ESP 00:54:46 05:55:26 03:16:37 10:14:27

Course Records

Leg Gender Record Athlete Date
Total overall 08:30:34 Timo Bracht 2011-05-21
Swim overall 00:46:15 Luc Van Lierde 2006-05-20
Bike overall 04:40:58 Maik Twelsiek 2010-05-22
Run overall 02:44:29 Gerrit Schellens 2005-06-04
Total female 09:28:12 Rachel Joyce 2011-05-21
Swim female 00:50:40 Hillary Biscay 2010-05-22
Bike female 05:26:23 Tara Norton 2010-05-22
Run female 02:58:37 Kristin Moeller 2013-05-18

Course Rating

Traditionally, Lanzarote is one of the slowest Ironman races with a Course Rating of – 11:14, mainly because of a hilly and windy bike course.

Race Adjustments for IM Lanzarote

Year Adjustment Swim Adj. Bike Adj. Run Adj. # of Athletes Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating
2005 n/a n/a n/a n/a 0 n/a n/a n/a n/a
2006 -06:54 02:14 -22:36 01:38 26 -06:54 02:14 -22:36 01:38
2007 -11:54 -01:07 -10:01 -04:27 31 -09:24 00:33 -16:19 -01:25
2008 -13:01 00:44 -18:42 05:10 37 -10:36 00:37 -17:07 00:47
2009 -08:22 -00:10 -14:39 03:52 40 -10:03 00:25 -16:30 01:33
2010 -07:04 01:30 -09:59 00:27 32 -09:27 00:38 -15:12 01:20
2011 -08:08 02:20 -16:39 04:53 20 -09:14 00:55 -15:26 01:55
2012 -16:14 00:51 -17:46 04:05 16 -10:14 00:55 -15:46 02:14
2013 -18:18 00:20 -19:54 03:32 18 -11:14 00:50 -16:17 02:24

KPR points and Prize Money

IM Lanzarote has 2000 KPR points for the winner. It has a total prize purse of 25k$.

Male Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating Rank
1 7 Ronnie Schildknecht SUI 08:49:46 08:38:58 00:52:11 04:41:16 03:00:01 38
2 2 Miquel Blanchart ESP 08:53:33 08:42:40 00:48:35 04:51:02 02:55:35 51
3 14 Michael Goehner GER 08:55:41 08:44:46 00:53:08 04:42:21 03:01:57 56
4 3 Kirill Kotshegarov EST 08:56:35 08:45:39 00:52:19 04:40:10 03:04:08 57
5 5 Bert Jammaer BEL 08:57:23 08:46:26 00:49:09 04:46:10 03:05:32 61
6 20 Herve Faure FRA 08:58:04 08:47:06 00:50:55 04:49:00 03:00:56 (64)
7 8 Scott Neyedli GBR 09:02:06 08:51:03 00:50:29 04:51:03 03:01:02 82
8 17 Markus Thomschke GER 09:04:19 08:53:13 00:53:46 04:44:11 03:08:26 97
9 41 Darby Thomas FIN 09:08:49 08:57:38 00:57:22 04:45:05 02:59:38 (115)
10 12 Sergio Marques POR 09:08:57 08:57:45 00:54:59 05:01:35 02:58:24 117
11 15 Joel Jameson GBR 09:09:15 08:58:03 00:56:32 04:56:04 02:57:27 120
12 6 Romain Guillaume FRA 09:11:15 09:00:01 00:49:30 04:46:17 03:18:47 126
13 13 Nicholas Ward Munoz GBR 09:11:24 09:00:09 00:56:14 04:59:41 02:58:19 128
14 40 Christian Brader GER 09:11:35 09:00:20 00:56:24 04:52:43 03:07:12 130
15 38 Andrey Lyatskiy RUS 09:13:04 09:01:47 00:48:28 04:57:01 03:10:53 141
16 60 Trevor Delsaut FRA 09:13:48 09:02:30 00:55:48 04:57:21 03:03:27 142
17 42 Dominik Berger AUT 09:14:03 09:02:45 00:48:21 04:51:41 03:18:24 144
18 44 Flo Kriegl AUT 09:15:04 09:03:45 00:54:10 04:50:38 03:06:18 (146)
19 55 Mike Schifferle SUI 09:15:09 09:03:50 01:00:15 04:50:59 03:06:04 147
20 11 Patrick Jaberg SUI 09:18:02 09:06:39 00:52:43 04:51:49 03:14:13 160
21 18 Jens Kaiser GER 09:19:22 09:07:58 00:58:07 04:49:55 03:11:14 163
22 57 Roeland Smits NED 09:19:55 09:08:30 00:53:27 04:51:31 03:06:39 (167)
23 16 Henrik Hyldelund DEN 09:21:16 09:09:49 00:47:32 04:47:42 03:19:20 (171)
24 56 Paul Hawkins GBR 09:33:11 09:21:30 00:58:33 05:28:51 03:20:29 (209)
25 37 Craig Twigg GBR 09:44:25 09:32:30 00:52:32 04:53:06 03:37:46 248
26 48 Jose Ortega Serran ESP 09:47:36 09:35:37 00:57:12 04:55:08 03:20:00 (260)
27 47 Jorge Rakos ARG 09:47:49 09:35:50 00:50:39 05:18:24 03:17:32 (262)
28 49 Kasper Ougaard DEN 09:55:42 09:43:33 01:02:02 04:57:28 03:26:39 (290)
29 52 Martin Cain GBR 10:09:05 09:56:40 00:58:54 05:15:52 03:33:06 337
30 59 Teemu Kyllonen FIN 10:21:22 10:08:42 01:00:13 05:12:07 03:46:04 367
31 43 Fernando Cuenllas ESP 10:21:31 10:08:51 00:54:41 05:06:57 03:46:19 (369)
39 Christian Birngruber AUT n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
58 Samuel Huerzeler SUI n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
53 Michael Louys BEL n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
19 Rayco miguel Marrero ESP n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
54 Miguel Platero ESP n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
61 Victor Rodriguez ESP n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
51 Marcus Hultgren SWE n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
46 Iván Álvarez Gómez ESP n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)

Female Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating Rank
1 9 Lucy Gossage GBR 09:38:48 09:27:00 00:57:31 05:07:36 03:10:37 13
2 10 Sonja Tajsich GER 09:41:43 09:29:51 01:03:11 05:13:05 03:07:46 (16)
3 21 Natascha Badmann SUI 09:45:48 09:33:51 01:01:35 05:06:46 03:17:14 22
4 31 Corinne Abraham GBR 09:47:54 09:35:55 01:01:57 05:18:26 03:11:43 (26)
5 1 Kristin Moeller GER 09:48:13 09:36:13 01:03:46 05:20:45 03:06:22 26
6 23 Susan Blatt GER 09:53:12 09:41:06 00:57:19 05:14:04 03:23:46 37
7 22 Regula Rohrbach SUI 10:02:19 09:50:02 00:56:59 05:07:18 03:35:11 61
8 25 Camilla Lindholm SWE 10:12:12 09:59:43 01:08:44 05:23:08 03:17:18 82
9 29 Beate Goertz GER 10:12:26 09:59:57 01:05:06 05:05:26 03:25:20 (83)
10 34 Karina Ottosen DEN 10:26:55 10:14:08 00:58:36 05:34:09 03:32:28 106
11 33 Gurutze Frades Larralde ESP 10:27:31 10:14:43 01:02:57 05:28:28 03:24:24 (110)
12 4 Saleta Castro ESP 10:31:31 10:18:38 00:56:23 05:29:26 03:44:38 115
13 26 Joanna Carritt GBR 10:33:19 10:20:24 01:02:32 05:31:10 03:35:42 117
14 28 Anne Basso FRA 10:37:00 10:24:01 00:59:14 05:37:22 03:45:17 125
15 30 Christine Waitz GER 10:43:54 10:30:46 01:03:25 05:41:20 03:39:49 (133)
16 24 Vanessa Pereira POR 10:46:36 10:33:25 01:02:12 05:36:51 03:35:22 (133)
32 Eleanor Haresign GBR n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
27 Alena Stevens SVK n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
36 Stefanie Adam BEL n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
35 Line margareta Foss NOR n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

If he is back in form after his DNF in South Africa, Ronnie Schildknecht is the clear favorite for the race:

  • Ronnie Schildknecht: 60% (1-1)
  • Markus Thomschke: 8% (12-1)
  • Miquel Blanchart: 7% (14-1)
  • Trevor Delsaut: 5% (20-1)
  • Michael Goehner: 5% (21-1)
  • Sergio Marques: 3% (28-1)
  • Bert Jammaer: 3% (30-1)
  • Scott Neyedli: 2% (44-1)
  • Henrik Hyldelund: 2% (49-1)

Female Race Participants

On the women’s side, there are at least five athletes with a good chance to win the race. The statistics clearly favor Sonja and Kristin, but Lucy Gossage seems to be the athlete with the biggest momentum:

  • Sonja Tajsich: 34% (2-1)
  • Kristin Moeller: 31% (2-1)
  • Lucy Gossage: 18% (5-1)
  • Natascha Badmann: 12% (8-1)
  • Corinne Abraham: 2% (56-1)

Ironman Texas 2014 (May 17th) – Predictions

Have some fun predicting the Texas podium at IM Predictions – and you may even win a nice prize!

Previous Winners

Year Male Winner Time Female Winner Time
2011 Eneko Llanos (ESP) 08:08:20 Catriona Morrison (GBR) 08:57:51
2012 Jordan Rapp (USA) 08:10:44 Mary Beth Ellis (USA) 08:54:58
2013 Paul Amey (GBR) 08:25:06 Rachel Joyce (GBR) 08:49:14

Last Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Paul Amey GBR 00:54:54 04:29:07 02:56:18 08:25:06
2 James Cunnama ZAF 00:50:17 04:32:55 03:00:25 08:27:35
3 Ian Mikelson USA 00:51:55 04:32:01 03:01:59 08:30:06

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Rachel Joyce GBR 00:54:02 04:42:29 03:07:27 08:49:14
2 Jennie Hansen USA 01:07:22 05:01:06 03:10:51 09:25:35
3 Kim Schwabenbauer USA 01:04:16 05:03:42 03:19:15 09:33:01

Course Records

Leg Gender Record Athlete Date
Total overall 08:08:20 Eneko Llanos 2011-05-21
Swim overall 00:46:20 John Flanagan 2011-05-21
Bike overall 04:18:17 Mathias Hecht 2012-05-19
Run overall 02:46:55 Jordan Rapp 2012-05-19
Total female 08:49:14 Rachel Joyce 2013-05-18
Swim female 00:53:12 Kelly Williamson 2011-05-21
Bike female 04:42:29 Rachel Joyce 2013-05-18
Run female 02:51:46 Caitlin Snow 2012-05-19

Course Rating

The Course Rating for IM Texas is 10:43.

Race Adjustments for IM Texas

Year Adjustment Swim Adj. Bike Adj. Run Adj. # of Athletes Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating
2011 09:31 -02:42 16:27 -01:17 38 09:31 -02:42 16:27 -01:17
2012 14:53 -01:22 13:46 03:00 23 12:12 -02:02 15:06 00:52
2013 07:45 -01:44 14:28 02:26 24 10:43 -01:56 14:53 01:23

KPR points and Prize Money

IM Texas has 2000 KPR points for the winner. It has a total prize purse of 75k$.

Male Race Participants

The field has a lot of North American names – most of them looking to get their Kona plans sorted. Jordan Rapp still needs about 1.800 points to qualify, so he has to finish at least on the podium. Bas Diederen only has 960 points from South Africa – a long way to go. Jens Petersen-Bach is probably just looking for a good race after his long-term injury has flared up again over the winter. Bevan Docherty still has to figure out things after a few disappointing recent DNFs. Chris McDonald finished strong in 2013, and a good result in Texas would secure a Kona slot for him. Then there are a lot of more good, solid athletes: Last years winner Paul Amey, Texan Brandon Marsh (1st out of the water in Kona), Matthew Russel who always has one of the best run splits, super-swimmer Balasz Csoke (who lives close to the race site) and more that I can’t mention here: A good, deep field, with a lot of people that might be able to surprise with a podium result.

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating Rank
1 2 Jordan Rapp USA 08:19:30 08:29:37 00:52:18 04:34:38 02:57:16 17
2 11 Bas Diederen NED 08:21:09 08:31:18 00:47:22 04:41:32 02:55:17 19
3 17 Jens Petersen-Bach DEN 08:27:20 08:37:36 00:51:44 04:46:19 02:54:00 33
4 5 Bevan Docherty NZL 08:27:24 08:37:40 00:47:16 04:44:22 02:54:33 (34)
5 32 Jeff Symonds CAN 08:33:11 08:43:34 00:51:05 04:41:47 02:54:23 (54)
6 6 Chris McDonald AUS 08:35:25 08:45:51 00:52:46 04:42:48 03:03:15 59
7 4 Justin Daerr USA 08:38:16 08:48:46 00:53:52 04:46:49 03:02:33 70
8 26 Stephen Bayliss GBR 08:38:23 08:48:53 00:47:49 04:49:40 03:04:47 71
9 7 Jozsef Major HUN 08:39:30 08:50:01 00:57:36 04:42:16 03:03:59 77
10 3 Swen Sundberg GER 08:40:23 08:50:55 00:52:17 04:45:24 03:08:32 80
11 1 Paul Amey GBR 08:40:43 08:51:16 00:50:51 04:52:13 03:03:38 84
12 9 Brandon Marsh USA 08:42:06 08:52:40 00:47:33 04:48:03 03:09:36 93
13 8 Matthew Russell USA 08:43:58 08:54:35 01:00:58 04:47:39 02:58:39 104
14 21 Thomas Gerlach USA 08:49:36 09:00:19 00:54:53 04:45:02 03:14:09 129
15 16 Matt Hanson USA 08:54:43 09:05:33 00:56:08 04:58:04 02:54:42 (153)
16 14 Balazs Csoke HUN 08:55:00 09:05:50 00:48:05 04:51:11 03:21:49 156
17 20 Jose Jeuland FRA 08:58:16 09:09:10 00:52:32 05:00:06 03:08:03 170
18 18 Chris Boudreaux USA 09:04:06 09:15:07 00:52:20 04:59:41 03:12:13 192
19 19 Chad Holderbaum USA 09:07:37 09:18:42 00:54:57 04:54:29 03:13:57 (203)
20 25 Douglas MacLean USA 09:11:39 09:22:49 00:59:15 05:04:23 03:09:43 211
21 23 Nathan Buttrick USA 09:16:04 09:27:20 01:00:33 05:00:46 03:05:50 (233)
22 33 Allan Villanueva MEX 09:23:25 09:34:50 00:53:50 05:07:58 03:29:22 257
23 30 Jim Lubinski USA 09:29:57 09:41:29 01:02:47 05:14:58 03:18:58 281
24 31 Raymond Botelho USA 09:30:50 09:42:23 00:54:56 04:58:22 03:40:07 283
25 12 Peter Kotland USA 09:41:38 09:53:25 00:57:37 05:17:39 03:30:36 327
26 24 Patrick Schuster USA 09:57:53 10:09:59 01:07:16 05:06:53 03:43:59 (371)
27 13 Ed Donner USA 10:07:09 10:19:27 00:58:08 05:11:24 03:52:53 (395)
28 28 Matthew Curbeau USA 10:08:48 10:21:08 01:03:57 05:06:51 03:48:44 (398)
29 Robert Wade IRL n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
22 James Chesson USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
15 Clay Emge USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
10 Timothy Reed AUS n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
27 Kyle Hughes USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)

Female Race Participants

The women’s field is headed by two European athletes: Eva Wutti (two sub-9 finishes in her two IM-distance races at IM Copenhagen and Challenge Barcelone) and Julia Gajer (with three sub-9 finishes in Roth, and recent winner of IM Arizona. They face a large number of solid North American athletes: Kelly Williamson (going back to long distance), Jennie Hansen (forced to take a break by some lingering illness, but hopefully back in full swing), Sarah Piampiano (looking to qualify for Kona), go-till-you’re-broke Bree Wee. As for the men, the list of potential podium finishers goes on and on.

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating Rank
1 50 Eva Wutti AUT 09:06:56 09:18:00 00:55:34 04:57:37 03:08:59 (7)
2 43 Julia Gajer GER 09:11:39 09:22:49 00:52:45 05:17:04 03:08:17 8
3 41 Kelly Williamson USA 09:21:29 09:32:51 00:51:54 05:26:31 03:10:05 (19)
4 47 Jennie Hansen USA 09:27:20 09:38:49 01:04:26 05:15:37 03:12:04 34
5 44 Sarah Piampiano USA 09:35:27 09:47:06 01:01:08 05:19:28 03:21:20 53
6 56 Tamara Kozulina UKR 09:35:51 09:47:31 01:00:34 05:22:35 03:17:50 (56)
7 42 Bree Wee USA 09:37:19 09:49:00 00:54:07 05:18:53 03:28:20 57
8 45 Jackie Arendt USA 09:46:44 09:58:37 00:55:49 05:31:45 03:22:21 78
9 64 Amber Ferreira USA 09:50:38 10:02:36 00:55:22 05:32:06 03:30:14 88
10 51 Sara Gross CAN 09:55:18 10:07:21 00:57:18 05:43:21 03:22:38 92
11 46 Karen Thibodeau CAN 09:57:59 10:10:05 00:55:01 05:27:51 03:24:58 (97)
12 49 April Gellatly USA 09:58:52 10:11:00 00:56:27 05:28:39 03:38:02 99
13 52 Olesya Prystayko UKR 09:59:14 10:11:22 01:00:03 05:27:46 03:38:04 100
14 65 Jessica Meyers USA 10:00:59 10:13:09 00:59:16 05:25:14 03:29:34 (104)
15 67 Jacqui Gordon USA 10:01:48 10:13:59 01:00:26 05:28:56 03:36:52 105
16 55 Christine Fletcher CAN 10:04:43 10:16:58 00:58:55 05:28:20 03:42:03 112
17 61 Cindy Lewis CAN 10:12:01 10:24:25 01:03:46 05:35:35 03:35:50 128
18 53 Rachel Jastrebsky USA 10:12:24 10:24:48 01:01:05 05:29:24 03:38:03 (129)
19 48 Suzy Serpico USA 10:24:51 10:37:30 00:54:28 05:24:44 03:55:09 (136)
20 70 Rahel Bellinga NED 10:28:38 10:41:22 01:02:12 05:15:53 03:58:08 (142)
21 69 Lindsay Ludlow USA 10:32:17 10:45:05 01:04:54 05:38:02 03:36:47 (142)
22 60 Tami Ritchie USA 10:36:20 10:49:13 00:51:56 06:06:49 03:44:46 143
23 66 Heather Leiggi USA 10:45:02 10:58:06 01:04:54 05:29:13 04:02:45 (146)
24 68 Kristina Wiegand GER 11:27:59 11:41:55 01:06:18 06:14:48 04:21:50 151
59 Amy Javens USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
62 Ali Black USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
63 Christina Jackson USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
54 Corrie Kristick USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
58 Palmira Alvarez MEX n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
57 Jocelyn Cornman USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

If Bevan manages to finish the race, he should deliver a great result (only one IM finish so far – his record-breaking win at IM New Zealand in 2013). If you feel that he hasn’t managed to control his problems, Jordan Rapp is the clear favorite for the race:

  • Bevan Docherty: 54% (1-1)
  • Jordan Rapp: 26% (3-1)
  • Bas Diederen: 9% (11-1)
  • Paul Amey: 6% (14-1)

Female Race Participants

On the women’s side, it’s too close to call between the two European athletes:

  • Eva Wutti: 32% (2-1)
  • Julia Gajer: 31% (2-1)
  • Kelly Williamson: 16% (5-1)
  • Jennie Hansen: 10% (9-1)
  • Sara Gross: 5% (20-1)
  • Tamara Kozulina: 2% (46-1)
  • Sarah Piampiano: 2% (48-1)

Ironman Australia 2014 – Analyzing Results

Race Conditions

Conditions in Australia were similar to last year: an adjustment of 12:47, mainly because of a pretty fast run (8:31).

Male Race Results

The main story in the men’s field has to be Luke Bell’s DNF. He was leading the field by a large margin after the bike, but had to call it a day even before the 20k mark. He wasn’t completely recovered from a knee injury earlier in the year and tweeted his analysis that „3 wks of running just not enough“. If his knee is basically okay and just needs a bit more time, my guess is that he’ll race a September Ironman (defend his title in Mont Tremblant?) or start to rack up points for Kona 2015 with a late season Ironman.

After Luke was out of the race, Elliot Holtham quickly took the place in the spotlight: He passed Paul Ambrose and while never moving far ahead just had the better run, winning his first Ironman and gaining a good position to qualify for Kona. Paul Ambrose finished second, with Nick Baldwin taking the last spot on the podium.

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to expected
1 Elliot Holtham CAN 00:49:26 04:49:09 02:53:28 08:35:18 -16:58
2 Paul Ambrose GBR 00:46:29 04:46:28 03:01:37 08:37:47 -06:14
3 Nick Baldwin SEY 00:50:10 04:50:54 02:56:22 08:41:19 -00:17
4 Denis Chevrot FRA 00:44:25 05:05:54 02:50:45 08:44:43 18:11
5 Jason Shortis AUS 00:50:23 05:04:33 02:48:54 08:47:53 08:09
6 Luke Whitmore AUS 00:50:28 05:01:19 03:03:36 08:58:51 08:52
7 Darren Jenkins AUS 00:59:12 05:01:15 02:58:23 09:02:31 n/a
8 Jon Woods NZL 00:53:15 05:15:36 03:13:43 09:26:18 -08:31
9 Luke Bell AUS 00:44:24 04:37:31 DNF
10 Matty White AUS 00:50:13 DNF

Female Race Results

After the swim and bike, Lisa Marangon had built a solid lead with a race best bike. However, once Melissa Hauschildt had put on her running shoes it was clear that if her first ever marathon went well, she’d be able to take the win. Mel passed Lisa around the 24k mark, then built and held a small lead. It’ll be interesting to see what she can do once she has some more IM-specific training under her belt – and what that will mean for her 70.3 speed. Lisa Marangon took the 2nd place and is now on the qualifying bubble for Kona. Melanie Burke took the last spot on the podium with the best women’s run of 3:09.

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to expected
1 Melissa Hauschildt AUS 00:50:46 05:19:57 03:13:57 09:28:43 n/a
2 Lisa Marangon AUS 00:49:49 05:12:19 03:23:53 09:30:50 -10:57
3 Melanie Burke NZL 00:58:08 05:21:39 03:09:19 09:32:53 -10:39
4 Dimity-Lee Duke AUS 00:57:22 05:28:30 03:14:03 09:43:38 -46:33
5 Hillary Biscay USA 00:49:23 05:39:41 03:22:12 09:55:43 -00:43
6 Megumi Shigaki JPN 00:56:27 05:51:25 03:32:45 10:24:57 -26:39
7 Tamsyn Hayes NZL 00:55:24 05:25:49 04:04:31 10:29:59 34:35
Select your currency
EUR Euro
USD United States (US) dollar

By continuing to use the site, you agree to the use of cookies. more information

The cookie settings on this website are set to "allow cookies" to give you the best browsing experience possible. If you continue to use this website without changing your cookie settings or you click "Accept" below then you are consenting to this.

Close