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Ironman Australia 2014 – Analyzing Results

Race Conditions

Conditions in Australia were similar to last year: an adjustment of 12:47, mainly because of a pretty fast run (8:31).

Male Race Results

The main story in the men’s field has to be Luke Bell’s DNF. He was leading the field by a large margin after the bike, but had to call it a day even before the 20k mark. He wasn’t completely recovered from a knee injury earlier in the year and tweeted his analysis that „3 wks of running just not enough“. If his knee is basically okay and just needs a bit more time, my guess is that he’ll race a September Ironman (defend his title in Mont Tremblant?) or start to rack up points for Kona 2015 with a late season Ironman.

After Luke was out of the race, Elliot Holtham quickly took the place in the spotlight: He passed Paul Ambrose and while never moving far ahead just had the better run, winning his first Ironman and gaining a good position to qualify for Kona. Paul Ambrose finished second, with Nick Baldwin taking the last spot on the podium.

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to expected
1 Elliot Holtham CAN 00:49:26 04:49:09 02:53:28 08:35:18 -16:58
2 Paul Ambrose GBR 00:46:29 04:46:28 03:01:37 08:37:47 -06:14
3 Nick Baldwin SEY 00:50:10 04:50:54 02:56:22 08:41:19 -00:17
4 Denis Chevrot FRA 00:44:25 05:05:54 02:50:45 08:44:43 18:11
5 Jason Shortis AUS 00:50:23 05:04:33 02:48:54 08:47:53 08:09
6 Luke Whitmore AUS 00:50:28 05:01:19 03:03:36 08:58:51 08:52
7 Darren Jenkins AUS 00:59:12 05:01:15 02:58:23 09:02:31 n/a
8 Jon Woods NZL 00:53:15 05:15:36 03:13:43 09:26:18 -08:31
9 Luke Bell AUS 00:44:24 04:37:31 DNF
10 Matty White AUS 00:50:13 DNF

Female Race Results

After the swim and bike, Lisa Marangon had built a solid lead with a race best bike. However, once Melissa Hauschildt had put on her running shoes it was clear that if her first ever marathon went well, she’d be able to take the win. Mel passed Lisa around the 24k mark, then built and held a small lead. It’ll be interesting to see what she can do once she has some more IM-specific training under her belt – and what that will mean for her 70.3 speed. Lisa Marangon took the 2nd place and is now on the qualifying bubble for Kona. Melanie Burke took the last spot on the podium with the best women’s run of 3:09.

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to expected
1 Melissa Hauschildt AUS 00:50:46 05:19:57 03:13:57 09:28:43 n/a
2 Lisa Marangon AUS 00:49:49 05:12:19 03:23:53 09:30:50 -10:57
3 Melanie Burke NZL 00:58:08 05:21:39 03:09:19 09:32:53 -10:39
4 Dimity-Lee Duke AUS 00:57:22 05:28:30 03:14:03 09:43:38 -46:33
5 Hillary Biscay USA 00:49:23 05:39:41 03:22:12 09:55:43 -00:43
6 Megumi Shigaki JPN 00:56:27 05:51:25 03:32:45 10:24:57 -26:39
7 Tamsyn Hayes NZL 00:55:24 05:25:49 04:04:31 10:29:59 34:35

70.3 St.George 2014 (May 3rd) – Participants

Ironman Australia is the full distance Ironman race in early May (see my pre-race post), but it’s field is clearly overshadowed by the 70.3 in St. George on the same weekend: A lot of North American Pros interested in racing Kona and the 70.3 worlds in Mont Tremblant seem to be racing. A lot of Pros are trying to get the last few points required to get into safe territory (e.g. Angela Naeth), or to get a solid base for summer races (e.g. Heather Wurtele). It promises to be an exciting race!

I’m not usually posting for 70.3s – that’s why I can’t offer 70.3 ratings or predictions. However, St. George will probably be an important race for the KPR. Let me know if you would like to see more posts on 70.3 races!

Male Participants

Bib Name Nation IM Rating KPR Points
1 Brent McMahon CAN unrated 471
2 Kevin Collington USA unrated 2.050
3 Andy Potts USA 8:30:47 3.325
4 Sebastian Kienle GER 8:24:13 10.020
5 Terenzo Bozzone NZL 8:34:43 6.565
6 Matty Reed USA 9:00:34 0
7 Ben Hoffman USA 8:35:06 2.635
8 Joe Gambles AUS 8:37:00 4.145
9 Bevan Docherty NZL 8:37:40 920
10 Marino Vanhoenacker BEL 8:24:57 1.670
11 Jan Frodeno DEU unrated 2.250
12 James Cunnama ZAF 8:39:12 7.395
13 Maik Twelsiek GER 8:40:09 3.600
14 TJ Tollakson USA 8:44:14 450
15 Timo Bracht GER 8:22:39 3.445
16 Paul Matthews AUS 8:18:02 4.150
17 Michael Weiss AUT 8:27:26 4.455
18 Jordan Rapp USA 8:29:37 1.630
19 Tim Don GBR unrated 2.000
20 Clayton Fettell AUS 8:41:46 640
21 Trevor Wurtele CAN 8:57:20 1.725
22 Martin Jensen DEN 8:33:33 2.000
23 Timothy Reed AUS unrated 0
24 Matt Chrabot USA 9:15:32 2.318
25 Trevor Delsaut FRA 9:02:30 0
26 Joe Umphenour USA 8:54:39 278
27 Kyle Hughes USA unrated 0
28 Frederic Bouchard CAN 10:05:20 45
29 Jared Milam USA 9:12:49 245
30 Patrick Wheeler USA 9:20:24 6
31 Mark Bowstead NZL unrated 365
32 John Polson AUS unrated 960
33 Steve Rosinski USA unrated 0
34 Patrick Lange DEU unrated 400
35 Tim Pierce CAN unrated 0
36 Jesse Vondracek USA 9:34:23 0
37 Todd Teren USA unrated 1
38 Jonathan Tryoen FRA unrated 13
39 Antony Costes FRA unrated 0
40 Jim Lubinski USA 9:41:29 132
41 Douglas MacLean USA 9:22:49 90
42 Andrew Yoder USA unrated 10
43 Lionel Sanders CAN unrated 545
44 Drew Scott USA unrated 15
45 Derek Garcia USA 9:06:07 485
46 Randy Arriola USA unrated 5
47 Thomas Gerlach USA 9:00:19 320
48 David Kahn USA unrated 125
49 Boris Stein GER 9:04:12 820
50 Robert Wade IRL unrated 222
51 Brian Fleischmann USA unrated 0
52 Keith Butsko USA unrated 4
53 Dantley Young USA 10:13:11 5
54 Yvan Jarrige FRA unrated 560
55 Jacob Rhyner USA unrated 240
56 Michael Davidson ZAF 9:06:15 290
57 Steven Zawaski USA unrated 13

Female Participants

Bib Name Nation IM Rating KPR Points
65 Meredith Kessler USA 9:26:13 8.390
66 Heather Wurtele CAN 9:35:37 2.665
67 Jodie Swallow GBR 9:20:25 2.465
68 Rachel Joyce GBR 9:12:35 9.200
69 Mary Beth Ellis USA 9:17:47 3.900
70 Linsey Corbin USA 9:24:24 5.100
71 Angela Naeth CAN unrated 3.890
72 Emma kate Lidbury GBR unrated 0
73 Rebekah Keat AUS 9:26:17 3.955
74 Julie Dibens GBR 9:19:02 435
75 Melanie Mcquaid CAN unrated 1.405
76 Amy Marsh USA 9:33:40 1.870
77 Sarah Haskins USA unrated 0
78 Sarah Piampiano USA 9:47:06 2.080
79 Margie Shapiro USA unrated 0
80 Lisa Mensink CAN unrated 665
81 Amanda Stevens USA 9:43:43 4.995
82 Olesya Prystayko UKR 10:11:22 215
83 Lisa Ribes USA 9:41:36 0
84 Jessica Chong USA unrated 225
85 Karen Thibodeau CAN 10:10:05 525
86 Sara Gross CAN 10:07:21 240
87 Kara Lapoint USA unrated 0
88 Stephanie Jones USA 9:59:36 0
89 Kaitlin Anelauskas USA unrated 180
90 Sarah Jarvis USA unrated 0
91 Sarah Graves USA unrated 30
92 Moka Best USA unrated 0
93 Kristyn Tobey BMU 10:36:39 31
94 Mackenzie Madison USA 9:49:19 0
95 Erin Green USA unrated 140
96 Erika Erickson USA unrated 255
97 Corrie Kristick USA unrated 210
98 Miranda Tomenson CAN 10:18:37 320
99 Jennifer Spieldenner USA unrated 280
100 Ruth Brennan Morrey USA unrated 1.320
101 Kelsey Withrow USA unrated 0
102 Laurel Wassner USA 10:11:34 385

Challenge Taiwan 2014 – Analyzing Results

Race Conditions

Conditions in Taiwan were pretty quick this year: The adjustment of 20:06 was about as fast as IM Melbourne, mainly on the strength of a relatively fast bike.

Male Race Results

As usual, Dylan McNeice stormed ahead on the swim and bike. The race got exciting on the run, when Fredrik Croneborg and Jason Shortis almost caught him towards the end: The Top 3 were within less than two minutes.

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to expected
1 Dylan McNeice NZL 00:46:11 04:29:02 03:03:40 08:23:44 -04:54
2 Fredrik Croneborg SWE 00:52:26 04:31:33 02:56:09 08:24:22 -07:49
3 Jason Shortis AUS 00:55:37 04:26:56 02:57:39 08:25:32 -08:54
4 Till Schramm GER 00:55:28 04:27:01 03:06:10 08:33:24 -20:57
5 Nick Baldwin SEY 00:55:02 04:27:32 03:11:12 08:38:56 06:05
6 Eneko Elosegui ESP 00:55:29 04:27:06 03:24:28 08:51:41 -21:31
7 Petr Vabrousek CZE 00:55:34 04:42:19 03:11:29 08:55:03 17:24
8 Mao Yung Yang TWN 00:52:28 04:53:10 03:23:50 09:16:07 n/a
9 Eric Watson AUS 00:49:38 04:51:41 03:39:27 09:27:48 n/a
10 Brad Wauer AUS 00:52:31 04:49:21 04:05:16 09:52:24 n/a
11 Guy Crawford NZL 00:49:53 04:53:34 DNF
12 Matt Burton AUS 00:55:30 DNF
13 Andrej Vistica CRO 00:55:43 04:41:49 DNF

Female Race Results

Britta Martin had a good day, being „in the green“ for all three legs, and finished almost 30 minutes ahead of Iron-rookie Jessica Fleming. Belinda Granger ended her IM career with finish #50 and the last spot on the podium.

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to expected
1 Britta Martin NZL 00:58:21 04:54:37 03:04:16 09:02:23 -17:19
2 Jessica Fleming AUS 01:02:28 04:57:36 03:26:30 09:31:25 n/a
3 Belinda Granger AUS 00:55:29 05:04:46 03:40:11 09:45:06 26:04
4 Kathrin Walther GER 01:02:25 05:20:16 03:45:04 10:13:16 -08:36
5 Stef Puszka AUS 01:04:13 05:29:50 03:33:37 10:13:42 n/a
6 Hillary Biscay USA 00:53:23 05:49:29 04:13:06 11:11:23 1:26:22
7 Jodie Scott AUS 00:57:41 05:38:01 05:05:18 11:50:09 1:35:17
8 Kate Bevilaqua AUS 00:54:23 04:58:45 DNF
9 Yasuko Miyazaki JPN 01:03:08 DNF

IM Texas 2014 – Unofficial Startlist

Note: The official start list is now out, and I have put up my predictions post: Ironman Texas 2014 (May 17th) – Predictions.

Update Apr 20th: I was pointed to a list of starters on the Ironman Texas website that also contains the Pros. (Thanks, Brenda!) I expect to see a few changes until the final Pro list is released, but it is a good starting point. I’ve added some additional information and updates from other sources.

I’ve asked around to figure out which Pros will be starting at IM Texas in mid-May. There isn’t an official start list yet as the Pro registration deadline is late April. Thanks to all those who responded, here is my „unofficial list“. (Please note that this information is not always „first hand“ so there may be some changes to the list.)

Any additional information is appreciated!

Male Participants

 

  • Paul Amey
  • Blake Becker
  • Chris Bodreaux (not on official list)
  • Nathan Buttrick
  • Balazs Csokes (not on official list)
  • James Cunnama
  • Matthew Curbeau
  • Justin Daerr
  • Bas Diederen
  • Ed Donner
  • Andy Gardner
  • Chris Gebhardt
  • Thomas Gerlach
  • Matt Hanson
  • Chris Hauth
  • Chad Holderbaum
  • Pete Jacobs
  • Jose Jeuland
  • Peter Kotland
  • Mark Livesey
  • Jim Lubinski (not on official list)
  • Douglas MacLean
  • Jozsef Major
  • Brandon Marsh
  • Chris McDonald  (not on official list)
  • Diego Montecelli
  • Jordan Rapp
  • Matthew Russell
  • Sean Sullivan
  • Swen Sundberg
  • Robert Wade

 

Female Participants

 

  • Rahel Bellinga
  • Jocelyn Cornman
  • Amber Ferreira
  • Julia Gajer (not on official list)
  • April Gellatly
  • Jennie Hansen
  • Christina Jackson
  • Rachel Jastrebsky
  • Amy Javens
  • Heather Jorris
  • Heather Leiggi
  • Cindy Lewis
  • Lindsay Ludlow
  • Jessica Meyers
  • Sarah Piampiano
  • Olesya Prystayko
  • Tami Ritchie
  • Suzy Serpico
  • Beth Shutt
  • Bree Wee
  • Kristina Wiegand
  • Kelly Williamson
  • Eva Wutti

Not racing

These are athletes that have been named to race Texas, but have confirmed on Twitter that they actually won’t:

  • Kim Schwabenbauer (on the list, but not starting)

Ironman Australia 2014 (May 4th) – Predictions

Please let me know your top picks on IM-Predictions! We’re already at round #5 for this season, but there will be a lot more chances to score more points until Kona!

Previous Winners

Year Male Winner Time Female Winner Time
2005 Chris McCormack (AUS) 08:25:44 Lisa Bentley (CAN) 09:13:20
2006 Chris McCormack (AUS) 08:20:42 Lisa Bentley (CAN) 09:19:44
2007 Patrick Vernay (NCL) 08:21:49 Rebekah Keat (AUS) 09:12:59
2008 Patrick Vernay (NCL) 08:31:32 Chrissie Wellington (GBR) 09:03:54
2009 Patrick Vernay (NCL) 08:24:53 Chrissie Wellington (GBR) 08:57:10
2010 Patrick Vernay (NCL) 08:23:54 Carrie Lester (AUS) 09:23:46
2011 Pete Jacobs (AUS) 08:29:28 Caroline Steffen (SUI) 09:29:54
2012 Paul Ambrose (GBR) 08:17:38 Michelle Gailey (AUS) 09:34:57
2013 Luke Bell (AUS) 08:30:23 Rebecca Hoschke (AUS) 09:34:55

Last Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Luke Bell AUS 00:47:25 04:46:02 02:53:48 08:30:23
2 Patrick Evoe USA 00:53:20 04:51:16 02:54:58 08:42:58
3 Luke Whitmore AUS 00:52:49 05:08:23 02:58:37 09:03:30

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Rebecca Hoschke AUS 00:57:05 05:15:01 03:18:46 09:34:55
2 Ange Castle AUS 01:01:19 05:12:06 03:23:19 09:41:38
3 Nicole Ward AUS 00:54:24 05:38:08 03:16:38 09:52:31

Course Records

Leg Gender Record Athlete Date
Total overall 08:17:38 Paul Ambrose 2012-04-29
Swim overall 00:44:32 Adrian Cominotto 2010-03-28
Bike overall 04:31:25 Paul Ambrose 2012-04-29
Run overall 02:47:20 Tim Van Berkel 2012-04-29
Total female 08:57:10 Chrissie Wellington 2009-04-05
Swim female 00:48:42 Melissa Ashton 2006-05-11
Bike female 05:00:57 Carrie Lester 2010-03-28
Run female 03:01:06 Lisa Bentley 2006-05-11

Course Rating

The Course Rating for IM Australia is 04:51.

Race Adjustments for IM Australia

Year Adjustment Swim Adj. Bike Adj. Run Adj. # of Athletes Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating
2005 n/a n/a n/a n/a 0 n/a n/a n/a n/a
2006 01:48 02:09 -07:42 00:32 16 01:48 02:09 -07:42 00:32
2007 04:10 01:52 -04:43 01:16 24 02:59 02:01 -06:13 00:54
2008 00:09 -00:01 -03:03 00:57 20 02:02 01:20 -05:09 00:55
2009 02:25 -00:18 -04:23 02:39 24 02:08 00:56 -04:58 01:21
2010 07:54 04:53 03:21 00:12 14 03:17 01:43 -03:18 01:07
2011 02:18 02:14 -02:29 01:54 13 03:07 01:48 -03:10 01:15
2012 06:09 02:21 01:08 04:11 9 03:33 01:53 -02:33 01:40
2013 14:00 01:35 -03:28 08:01 8 04:51 01:51 -02:40 02:28

KPR points and Prize Money

IM Australia has 2000 KPR points for the winner. It has a total prize purse of 40k$.

There are not too many athletes that are racing with a focus on KPR points. Luke Bell and Peter Robertson are probably the only two athletes that were seriously making plans to race Kona this year, but both are only at around 1.000 points and would need a win (and some more points from 70.3 races) to have a chance for a July cutoff.

On the women’s side, Mel Hauschildt is an automatic qualifier as the 70.3 champion, so she just has to validate her slot by finishing. Lisa Marangon (currently at 2.860) is the best placed athlete in the KPR, she would also need a win to make it to Kona.

Male Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating Rank
1 5 Denis Chevrot FRA 08:34:17 08:38:57 00:47:28 04:45:44 02:55:01 (38)
2 4 Peter Robertson AUS 08:39:22 08:44:05 00:45:57 04:37:01 03:03:53 (54)
3 9 Nick Baldwin SEY 08:47:23 08:52:10 00:53:11 04:48:30 03:03:24 87
4 1 Luke Bell AUS 08:48:05 08:52:53 00:48:19 04:44:11 03:15:29 94
5 8 Jason Shortis AUS 08:48:27 08:53:15 00:54:00 04:51:08 03:01:47 97
6 2 Paul Ambrose GBR 08:51:27 08:56:16 00:49:02 04:44:42 03:18:14 109
7 3 Matty White AUS 08:53:32 08:58:23 00:51:53 04:50:33 03:12:46 122
8 6 Luke Whitmore AUS 08:57:51 09:02:44 00:54:14 05:01:13 03:01:17 144
9 7 Elliot Holtham CAN 08:59:34 09:04:28 00:53:04 04:49:19 03:09:31 (150)
10 10 Simon Cochrane NZL 09:05:08 09:10:05 00:53:01 05:03:05 03:07:52 169
11 12 Jon Woods NZL 09:42:56 09:48:13 00:56:27 05:05:25 03:35:51 308
12 13 Dan Brown PHI 09:58:01 10:03:27 01:03:20 05:39:36 03:50:01 360
11 Darren Jenkins USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)

Female Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating Rank
1 22 Michelle Gailey AUS 09:42:11 09:47:28 00:54:18 05:36:34 03:18:37 54
2 23 Lisa Marangon AUS 09:49:56 09:55:17 00:54:33 05:17:58 03:37:51 68
3 24 Melanie Burke NZL 09:51:43 09:57:05 01:07:51 05:22:07 03:23:31 74
4 21 Hillary Biscay USA 10:04:31 10:10:00 00:52:18 05:34:25 03:36:49 98
5 25 Tamsyn Hayes NZL 10:04:49 10:10:18 00:58:51 05:20:39 03:42:43 100
6 26 Dimity-Lee Duke AUS 10:38:12 10:44:00 01:05:11 05:36:51 03:48:06 (142)
7 27 Megumi Shigaki JPN 11:00:23 11:06:23 00:59:36 05:43:30 04:15:22 149
20 Melissa Hauschildt AUS n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

Defending champion Luke Bell has had a good 2013 season (wins in Australia and Mont Tremblant) that don’t end well: A frustrating 31st in Kona, then a DNF in Western Australia and a knee injury. He’s hopefully fully recovered, but not the top pick. This spot goes to Paul Ambrose but he also has few DNFs lately. Other contenders are „newcomers“ (to the IM distance) Denis Chevrot, Peter Robertson and Nick Baldwin, and the „old hands“ Jason Shortis and Matty White.

  • Paul Ambrose: 35% (2-1)
  • Luke Bell: 22% (4-1)
  • Denis Chevrot: 18% (5-1)
  • Peter Robertson: 8% (12-1)
  • Jason Shortis: 7% (12-1)
  • Matty White: 7% (13-1)
  • Nick Baldwin: 2% (44-1)

Female Race Participants

The „headliner“ in the women’s race is Mel Hauschildt. She is racing her first Ironman, so it is hard to estimate how her performance will turn out. She has taken some time top get ready for the race, so if nothing bad happens during the race, she should win comfortably as I can see no one that could challenge her on a good bike and run day. (I’m putting her chances for a win at 50%, not based on previous IM results but based on how good of an athlete she as proven to be on the shorter distances.) However, if she does run into problems, there are a number of athletes more than eager to win an Ironman race.

  • Melissa Hauschildt: 50% (1-1)
  • Michelle Gailey: 22% (4-1)
  • Lisa Marangon: 18% (5-1)
  • Melanie Burke: 5% (19-1)
  • Hillary Biscay: 4% (24-1)
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