Thorsten

Race Conditions

This was the first year that South Africa had a new bike course. The adjustment for the bike was a slow -12:49. As the conditions on the swim seemed pretty normal (-1:37, pretty much in line with a swim rating of -3:02), it can’t only be caused by strong winds but is probably a consequence of the harder, hillier bike course. Also, the run was only a little bit slower than normal.

Male Race Results

After a long injury break, Nils Frommhold had his comeback races late in 2013, ending in a 5th place in the shortened IM Cozumel. He must have done some great session since then – he posted the fastest times in all three legs and won his second IM race by more than six minutes. The surprise second was Kyle Buckingham in his first professional IM, winning a duel late in the run with Faris Al-Sultan.

Bas Diederen came off the bike with Faris and was running steadily in 4th, but couldn’t bridge back up. Defending champion Ronnie Schildknecht was kicked in the stomach during the swim, and had to retire after the bike.

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Time	Diff to expected
1	Nils Frommhold	GER	00:48:17	04:37:12	02:55:59	08:26:07	-10:35
2	Kyle Buckingham	ZAF	00:49:53	04:41:03	02:57:33	08:32:39	n/a
3	Faris Al-Sultan	GER	00:48:27	04:43:34	02:56:59	08:33:19	-02:01
4	Bas Diederen	NED	00:48:33	04:43:28	03:00:42	08:37:25	-10:30
5	Matt Trautman	ZAF	00:49:43	04:54:17	03:00:04	08:48:25	n/a
6	Darby Thomas	FIN	00:59:54	04:51:22	02:58:42	08:55:21	-27:02
7	Marek Jaskolka	POL	00:49:50	05:05:58	02:59:56	09:00:15	-08:58
8	Miquel Blanchart	ESP	00:49:54	05:10:40	02:59:32	09:04:09	15:43
9	Michael Davidson	ZAF	00:58:01	05:07:40	03:03:07	09:13:42	-06:04
10	Karol Dzalaj	SVK	00:56:02	04:57:18	03:23:06	09:21:53	03:10
11	Rafael Wyss	SUI	01:00:02	05:02:31	03:14:26	09:22:08	00:11
12	Craig Twigg	GBR	00:55:09	04:56:16	03:34:39	09:31:00	-17:28
13	James Cunnama	ZAF	00:50:45	05:16:03	03:26:34	09:37:42	52:24
14	Bradley Venter	ZAF	00:55:56	05:22:06	03:26:58	09:49:44	n/a
15	Gerhard De Bruin	ZAF	00:57:47	05:19:29	03:35:41	09:57:46	n/a
16	Luca De Paolis	ITA	01:00:15	05:20:07	03:40:02	10:07:56	08:24
17	Georg Potrebitsch	GER	00:49:51	05:29:48	04:04:29	10:35:52	1:35:23
18	Martin Cain	GBR	01:01:50	05:42:49	03:48:25	10:42:43	42:59
19	Marek Nemcik	SVK	01:16:48	06:27:14	04:31:09	12:25:14	13:40
20	Pedro Gomes	POR	00:49:49	05:02:38		DNF
21	Ronnie Schildknecht	SUI	00:53:47	04:47:54		DNF
22	Anton Blokhin	UKR	00:52:50			DNF
23	Bertrand Billard	FRA	00:50:06	04:52:43		DNF
24	Kent Horner	ZAF	00:50:08			DNF
25	Edo Van der Meer	NED	00:48:31			DNF

Female Race Results

Once more, the women’s race was very exciting. As usual, Jodie Swallow stormed ahead on the swim and the bike, and started the run almost 10 minutes in front. Michelle Vesterby seemed to be in a good position, but also had to retire having sustained bruise ribs on the swim. Lucy Gossage took 2nd place and was slowly eating into Jodie’s lead. However, it was Simone Brändli who overtook both of them and won the race. Lucy managed to distance Jodie by 52 seconds, and the first three were within a little bit over two minutes. Jodie left it all on the course:

Defending champion Jessie Donavan was back by more than 20 minutes after the swim, then posted the fastest bike split but couldn’t make up any more ground on the run and finished in fourth place.

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Time	Diff to expected
1	Simone Braendli	SUI	00:51:00	05:26:55	03:09:08	09:31:54	-20:25
2	Lucy Gossage	GBR	00:59:50	05:18:47	03:09:55	09:33:07	-06:54
3	Jodie Swallow	GBR	00:48:34	05:21:19	03:19:40	09:33:59	-02:17
4	Jessie Donavan	USA	01:09:16	05:17:08	03:18:13	09:49:44	02:19
5	Astrid Ganzow	GER	01:01:11	05:24:33	03:30:05	10:00:55	n/a
6	Katja Konschak	GER	00:54:36	05:41:30	03:32:45	10:15:12	00:52
7	Karina Ottosen	DEN	01:00:01	06:00:21	03:42:58	10:48:39	35:09
8	Claire Horner	ZAF	01:01:43	05:57:54	03:54:29	11:02:12	00:52
9	Caroline Koll	ZAF	01:02:03	06:24:46	03:52:05	11:25:14	10:18
10	Linda Scattolin	ITA	01:09:31	06:06:27	04:16:05	11:38:13	n/a
11	Michelle Vesterby	DEN	00:54:28	05:23:13		DNF
12	Monique Grossrieder	SUI	01:09:07			DNF
13	Lucie Reed	CZE	00:49:53	05:53:53		DNF
14	Natascha Badmann	SUI	01:08:06	05:31:13		DNF
15	Erika Csomor	HUN	01:02:41	05:39:15		DNF

Race Conditions

This year’s race was a lot quicker than the 2013 race, with an adjustment 8:37 ist was neither really fast nor really slow. Both the swim and the bike were faster, even if the run was a little bit slower. From what I heard it was a relatively hot and humid race – pretty much what you can expect from a resort town on the ocean.

Male Race Results

Jan Van Berkel was leading the race after the bike, but he faded on the run and ended up in 7th place. Daniel Fontana had the smartest race, he posted fast times across all legs and it was clear pretty early in the run that it was his race to loose. He was trying to win an Ironman for quite some time, and in Los Cabos everything went well for him. Stephen Bayliss also had a good, solid race and finished second, and with Domenico Passuello another Italian rounded out the podium. 

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Time	Diff to expected
1	Daniel Fontana	ITA	00:47:43	04:39:53	02:55:06	08:26:15	-02:58
2	Stephen Bayliss	GBR	00:45:37	04:42:08	03:01:10	08:32:19	-09:10
3	Domenico Passuello	ITA	00:51:43	04:35:54	03:02:46	08:34:18	-27:40
4	Swen Sundberg	GER	00:49:51	04:43:06	03:00:59	08:38:17	-05:34
5	Patrick Evoe	USA	00:51:46	04:46:26	02:58:18	08:40:13	-09:14
6	Matthew Russell	USA	00:51:34	04:51:41	02:54:51	08:42:20	-04:15
7	Jan Van Berkel	SUI	00:47:46	04:36:25	03:18:30	08:46:31	-03:33
8	Derek Garcia	USA	00:49:51	04:43:03	03:12:50	08:49:53	-10:11
9	Petr Vabrousek	CZE	00:53:10	04:49:53	03:10:57	08:59:38	11:04
10	Mike Schifferle	SUI	00:57:07	04:45:37	03:17:43	09:06:18	11:48
11	Jim Lubinski	USA	00:58:10	05:11:53	02:54:49	09:09:10	-31:29
12	Ezequiel Morales	ARG	00:49:49	05:04:43	03:11:52	09:12:07	29:11
13	Douglas MacLean	USA	00:53:08	05:03:32	03:09:26	09:13:14	-00:59
14	Sergio Quezada	MEX	00:49:52	05:06:30	03:52:41	09:54:24	-03:52
15	Matthew Curbeau	USA	01:01:11	05:04:09	03:47:34	09:59:21	n/a
16	Allan Villanueva	MEX	00:51:41	05:16:01	03:51:26	10:14:29	1:05:34
17	Scott Defilippis	USA	00:51:47	05:18:27	04:34:13	10:49:57	1:42:40
18	Dan Mcintosh	USA	00:49:51	04:50:53	05:05:16	10:49:58	1:54:06
19	Josef Svoboda	CZE	01:07:39	06:28:02	04:24:04	12:09:18	25:07
20	James Duff	USA	00:51:15	04:58:28		DNF
21	Brent Mcburney	USA	00:54:19	05:10:07		DNF
22	Greg Close	USA	00:58:24			DNF
23	Trevor Delsaut	FRA	00:49:52			DNF
24	TJ Tollakson	USA	00:47:40	04:40:13		DNF

Female Race Results

Race favorite Linsey Corbin was patient and trusted her run to real in bike leader Carrie Lester. Even though Linsey ran a bit slower than expected, her good swim and bike times ensured she won in convincing fashion. Lisa Ribes had the best marathon and ran her way into second place. Carrie Lester held on to the third spot on the podium:

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Time	Diff to expected
1	Linsey Corbin	USA	00:53:11	05:06:17	03:12:03	09:16:43	01:24
2	Lisa Ribes	USA	01:01:55	05:10:14	03:02:43	09:20:40	-14:50
3	Carrie Lester	AUS	00:52:49	05:05:03	03:24:42	09:26:35	-14:58
4	Beth Shutt	USA	00:55:53	05:16:57	03:14:27	09:32:28	-19:18
5	Haley Chura	USA	00:47:57	05:23:16	03:17:27	09:33:35	-05:55
6	Katy Blakemore	USA	00:47:59	05:25:55	03:19:47	09:37:56	-02:53
7	Kathleen Calkins	USA	00:52:53	05:26:32	03:20:03	09:44:27	13:13
8	Ashley Clifford	USA	00:51:45	05:37:22	03:12:13	09:45:57	14:22
9	Katharina Grohmann	GER	01:13:10	05:23:57	03:20:50	10:02:19	-03:22
10	Molly Roohi	USA	01:05:09	05:31:11	03:26:02	10:09:10	-13:09
11	Caroline Gregory	USA	00:52:44	05:51:35	03:24:13	10:12:52	-09:34
12	Saleta Castro	ESP	00:55:49	05:25:38	03:54:23	10:21:04	16:29
13	Alyssa Godesky	USA	01:01:43	05:35:48	03:39:49	10:22:29	n/a
14	Kristina Wiegand	GER	01:02:06	06:02:44	04:34:17	11:46:02	30:54
15	Sara Gross	CAN	00:56:50	05:41:54		DNF
16	Karen Thibodeau	CAN	00:52:41	05:17:20		DNF
17	Anne Basso	FRA	00:56:44	05:32:35		DNF
18	Mackenzie Madison	USA	00:56:50	05:31:43		DNF

Update (April 2nd): Jens Petersen-Bach is not starting. He has had some knee problems which are gone now. He will be starting the season in Texas. (Thanks to Michelle Vesterby for telling me about Jens’ withdrawal, and to Jens for replying to my question about it.)

Update (April 3rd): In addition to Jens, Dianne McEwan also won’t be starting.

Update (April 4th): The start list on Ironman.com has some additional names. The most interesting among these is Bertrand Billard, who is the current ITU long distance world champion. Because of bad weather, the race was shortened and a Duathlon, so it’ll be interesting to see his debut over the full IM distance. Also on the list are Dirk Bockel (who is definitely not starting), Marek Jaskolka and Thomas Darby. 

With Ironman South Africa we have another early season Ironman race coming up. In addition to the „local“ triathletes, the race is interesting for a lot of European athletes: There is almost no time difference to South Africa, and it is a popular training destination.

Luke Dragstra and I are setting up pages for most Ironman races this season – use this page on IM-Predictions.com to submit your picks for South Africa. We have also released the second episode of our IM-Predictions podcast discussing the pro fields at IM Los Cabos and IM South Africa.

Previous Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Ronnie Schildknecht may not be a household name, but he has won IM Switzerland a million times – and he also won South Africa 2013:

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Time
1	Ronnie Schildknecht	SUI	00:52:48	04:22:01	02:53:03	08:11:24
2	Cyril Viennot	FRA	00:52:18	04:35:17	02:48:35	08:19:51
3	Bas Diederen	NED	00:49:27	04:38:15	02:48:48	08:20:09

Female Race Results

It looked as if Jodie Swallow could win her Ironman debut race, but when she struggled on the run she was run down by Jessie Donavan:

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Time
1	Jessie Donavan	USA	01:07:11	04:50:27	03:09:11	09:10:58
2	Jodie Swallow	GBR	00:49:56	04:46:05	03:36:44	09:17:00
3	Lucie Reed	CZE	00:52:17	05:11:31	03:18:59	09:27:07

Course Records

Leg	Gender	Record	Athlete	Date
Total	overall	08:05:36	Raynard Tissink	2011-04-10
Swim	overall	00:45:22	Anton Storm	2009-04-05
Bike	overall	04:19:41	Raynard Tissink	2011-04-10
Run	overall	02:45:48	Gerrit Schellens	2007-03-18
Total	female	08:33:56	Chrissie Wellington	2011-04-10
Swim	female	00:47:40	Lucie Reed	2009-04-05
Bike	female	04:45:23	Chrissie Wellington	2011-04-10
Run	female	02:52:54	Chrissie Wellington	2011-04-10

Course Rating

The Course Rating for IM South Africa is 05:18. Conditions can be quite variable: In 2012 there was a lot of wind, leading to a choppy swim and slow bike times. If the conditions are good, South Africa is a pretty quick course.

This year, there are some significant course changes. Switching from a two-loop to a single loop will make it a bit easier for the top swimmers. But the biggest change is the bike course: It used to be relatively flat three laps (400m vertical), now it’s a two loops (with 1.600m vertical). (Thanks to Michelle Vesterby, Faris Al-Sultan and Vincent Nortier for the information.)

Race Adjustments for IM South Africa

Year	Adjustment	Swim Adj.	Bike Adj.	Run Adj.	# of Athletes	Rating	Swim Rating	Bike Rating	Run Rating
2006	-01:15	-05:30	-06:48	00:06	10	-01:15	-05:30	-06:48	00:06
2007	-04:20	-09:38	01:08	-01:14	20	-02:48	-07:34	-02:50	-00:34
2008	17:01	00:25	10:18	01:58	29	03:49	-04:54	01:33	00:17
2009	12:56	01:20	10:01	-00:57	24	06:05	-03:21	03:40	-00:02
2010	09:06	-00:56	07:36	01:46	28	06:42	-02:52	04:27	00:20
2011	12:29	-00:25	12:11	01:40	33	07:39	-02:27	05:44	00:33
2012	-14:14	-09:04	-09:56	02:49	23	04:32	-03:24	03:30	00:53
2013	10:42	-01:51	09:22	02:31	28	05:18	-03:12	04:14	01:05

KPR points and Prize Money

IM South Africa has 2000 KPR points for the winner. It has a total prize purse of 75k$.

Male Race Participants

Rank	Bib	Name	Nation	Expected Time	Rating	Swim Rating	Bike Rating	Run Rating	Rank
1	4	Faris Al-Sultan	GER	08:20:21	08:25:19	00:47:35	04:34:11	02:58:51	7
2	13	Nils Frommhold	GER	08:21:50	08:26:49	00:46:36	04:37:13	02:50:15	(11)
3	1	Ronnie Schildknecht	SUI	08:28:47	08:33:50	00:51:40	04:38:29	02:58:14	22
4	2	James Cunnama	ZAF	08:28:58	08:34:01	00:50:03	04:42:00	02:58:07	23
5	18	Jens Petersen-Bach	DEN	08:32:31	08:37:36	00:51:44	04:46:19	02:54:00	32
6	5	Miquel Blanchart	ESP	08:32:43	08:37:48	00:48:39	04:48:18	02:54:18	34
7	3	Bas Diederen	NED	08:32:44	08:37:49	00:47:55	04:47:59	02:55:31	35
8	14	Pedro Gomes	POR	08:41:32	08:46:42	00:50:23	04:45:14	03:06:18	61
9	19	Georg Potrebitsch	GER	08:42:53	08:48:04	00:48:57	04:45:40	03:08:04	69
10	6	Anton Blokhin	UKR	08:47:28	08:52:42	00:48:56	04:52:07	03:04:20	92
(11)		Marek Jaskolka	POL	08:53:23	08:58:40	00:47:25	04:54:31	03:02:18	(124)
11	16	Andrey Lyatskiy	RUS	08:56:28	09:01:47	00:48:28	04:57:01	03:10:53	139
12	12	Karol Dzalaj	SVK	09:02:22	09:07:45	00:53:19	04:50:22	03:18:14	157
13	9	Michael Davidson	ZAF	09:03:34	09:08:57	00:53:29	04:53:17	03:05:38	(164)
14	15	Kent Horner	ZAF	09:04:58	09:10:22	00:48:49	04:54:07	03:22:05	167
15	24	Rafael Wyss	SUI	09:05:33	09:10:58	00:59:35	04:55:43	03:07:15	(171)
16	22	Edo Van der Meer	NED	09:13:10	09:18:39	00:47:33	04:48:48	03:36:21	(194)
17	21	Craig Twigg	GBR	09:31:39	09:37:19	00:52:14	04:56:01	03:39:59	255
18	8	Martin Cain	GBR	09:41:25	09:47:11	00:58:39	05:13:11	03:29:05	293
19	11	Luca De Paolis	ITA	09:41:54	09:47:40	01:01:09	04:56:51	03:35:39	(296)
20	17	Marek Nemcik	SVK	11:49:59	11:57:01	01:11:37	05:57:01	04:38:36	420
	10	Gerhard De Bruin	ZAF	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)
	7	Kyle Buckingham	ZAF	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)
	23	Bradley Venter	ZAF	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)
	20	Matt Trautman	ZAF	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)
		Bertrand Billard	FRA	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)
		Thomas Darby	FIN	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)

Female Race Participants

Rank	Bib	Name	Nation	Expected Time	Rating	Swim Rating	Bike Rating	Run Rating	Rank
1	26	Jodie Swallow	GBR	09:19:30	09:25:03	00:48:41	05:02:52	03:27:21	9
2	41	Michelle Vesterby	DEN	09:22:23	09:27:58	00:52:05	05:09:20	03:21:19	13
3	30	Natascha Badmann	SUI	09:22:35	09:28:10	01:00:58	05:03:44	03:15:17	14
4	33	Lucy Gossage	GBR	09:23:14	09:28:49	00:57:19	05:08:33	03:11:17	15
5	31	Erika Csomor	HUN	09:25:50	09:31:27	00:57:47	05:15:27	03:12:02	20
6	25	Jessie Donavan	USA	09:30:15	09:35:54	01:07:18	05:07:18	03:14:41	27
7	28	Simone Braendli	SUI	09:35:27	09:41:09	00:51:50	05:16:41	03:27:05	39
8	27	Lucie Reed	CZE	09:35:30	09:41:12	00:50:31	05:17:43	03:27:40	40
9	38	Edith Niederfriniger	ITA	09:42:42	09:48:29	00:54:42	05:26:58	03:21:09	(55)
10	29	Dianne McEwan	ZAF	09:50:24	09:56:15	00:56:10	05:26:33	03:21:24	(71)
11	39	Karina Ottosen	DEN	09:54:56	10:00:50	00:58:48	05:28:31	03:27:04	(85)
12	37	Katja Konschak	GER	09:56:24	10:02:19	00:52:22	05:29:39	03:30:12	88
13	34	Monique Grossrieder	SUI	10:11:44	10:17:48	01:04:44	05:34:07	03:27:16	113
14	35	Claire Horner	ZAF	10:42:02	10:48:24	01:01:43	05:37:25	03:59:15	138
15	36	Caroline Koll	ZAF	10:55:03	11:01:33	00:59:09	05:58:36	03:59:37	143
	40	Linda Scattolin	ITA	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)
	32	Astrid Ganzow	GER	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

Ronnie Schildknecht is back to defend his title from last year. His 2013 win gives him great odds. Nils Frommhold has won his IM debut in Arizona with a great time, but he was injured for most of the 2013 season. Faris Al-Sultan is racing as well, and even if his statistical odds are not that great, he is rarely beaten outside of Kona. James Cunnama will try to win his home race – after his great 2013 season he can focus his early season on South Africa. Another athlete of note is South African Kyle Buckingham, who’s doing his first Pro race after being the fastest age grouper in Kona 2013.

• Ronnie Schildknecht: 38% (2-1)
• Nils Frommhold: 18% (4-1)
• Faris Al-Sultan: 15% (6-1)
• James Cunnama: 13% (7-1)
• Bas Diederen: 7% (13-1)
• Jens Petersen-Bach: 4% (27-1)
• Miquel Blanchart: 2% (42-1)

Female Race Participants

Jessie Donavan is back to defend her title, but Jodie Swallow has gained more experience doing Ironman races and was steadily improving. Michelle Vesterby is another top athlete who excels in tight racing conditions. Lucy Gossage also had a great 2013 season (ending with wins at both IM UK and Wales), has taken some time to finish her doctorate and can focus on Ironman racing for a bit. Then you also have the veterans Erika Csomor (always a threat on the run) and Natascha Badmann (eager to race after missing IM Melbourne when she was hit by a car while training).

• Jessie Donavan: 20% (4-1)
• Jodie Swallow: 20% (4-1)
• Michelle Vesterby: 17% (5-1)
• Lucy Gossage: 14% (6-1)
• Erika Csomor: 11% (8-1)
• Natascha Badmann: 11% (8-1)
• Lucie Reed: 3% (34-1)

Race Conditions

Conditions in Melbourne were again pretty quick this year, an adjustment of 18:45 puts this year’s race in the neighborhood of races such as IM Arizona or IM Brasil. The conditions seemed to be especially favorable on the run, the run adjustment of 7:07 makes the times even quicker than the (apparently short) run in 2012.

Male Race Results

Dirk Bockel was the most patient athlete on race day: He took the lead at about 35k in the run, and held on to it until the finish.

Axel Zeebroek pushed the pace on the bike (eventually finishing 7th), then he was overtaken by Paul Matthews (who held on for 2nd). For a while David Dellow looked like the winner, but he spent his matches too early and staggered over the line in 3rd place and was promptly taken to the med-tent and was missing from the ceremony. Craig Alexander had the fastest run split in what appears to be his final Ironman race. Marino had a solid IM, always being close to the front and finishing in 6th.

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Time	Diff to expected
1	Dirk Bockel	LUX	00:45:35	04:23:05	02:48:35	08:01:02	-08:37
2	Paul Matthews	AUS	00:45:34	04:29:02	02:44:09	08:02:14	-03:16
3	David Dellow	AUS	00:45:44	04:21:35	02:51:41	08:03:07	-10:28
4	Michael Weiss	AUT	00:52:39	04:20:50	02:45:17	08:03:46	-09:52
5	Craig Alexander	AUS	00:47:45	04:30:29	02:43:52	08:05:47	-00:07
6	Marino Vanhoenacker	BEL	00:47:54	04:24:29	02:52:20	08:08:25	00:32
7	Axel Zeebroek	BEL	00:45:26	04:21:51	03:01:32	08:12:35	-25:22
8	Christian Kemp	AUS	00:45:34	04:28:15	02:56:19	08:14:10	-32:34
9	Christian Kramer	GER	00:46:32	04:36:56	02:47:39	08:15:10	-10:51
10	Peter Robertson	AUS	00:45:52	04:29:13	02:57:14	08:16:30	n/a
11	Daniel Halksworth	GBR	00:45:31	04:33:00	03:00:44	08:22:44	-09:40
12	Harry Wiltshire	GBR	00:45:31	04:33:06	03:06:15	08:28:08	-53:27
13	Luke McKenzie	AUS	00:49:39	04:34:34	02:59:38	08:28:40	07:12
14	Casey Munro	AUS	00:45:39	04:29:04	03:10:38	08:29:41	n/a
15	Sylvain Rota	FRA	00:52:40	04:39:58	02:56:03	08:32:48	-12:30
16	Jimmy Johnsen	DEN	00:49:46	04:47:36	02:51:54	08:33:06	03:38
17	Courtney Atkinson	AUS	00:45:33	04:36:43	03:09:13	08:35:07	n/a
18	Luke Whitmore	AUS	00:54:59	04:46:19	02:50:40	08:36:19	-12:41
19	Philip Graves	GBR	00:46:12	04:27:48	03:20:06	08:38:04	03:11
20	Benjamin Sanson	FRA	00:45:23	04:28:55	03:19:29	08:38:43	-28:17
21	Joshua Rix	AUS	00:50:51	04:46:17	03:05:39	08:46:48	05:12
22	Jarmo Hast	FIN	00:50:43	04:46:35	03:07:23	08:49:06	13:56
23	David Naesvik	SWE	00:56:38	04:44:43	03:07:20	08:52:54	-00:30
24	Mike Aigroz	SUI	00:47:44	04:30:33	03:36:09	08:58:04	35:33
25	Balazs Csoke	HUN	00:47:47	04:38:48	03:37:02	09:07:45	18:36
26	Adam Gordon	NZL	00:56:22	05:12:52	03:34:10	09:49:02	50:23
27	Arland Macasieb	PHI	01:05:38	05:07:32	03:51:45	10:16:44	24:33
28	Dan Brown	PHI	01:05:29	05:32:14	05:08:48	11:53:17	1:25:56
29	Paul Amey	GBR	00:50:41			DNF
30	Mathias Hecht	SUI	00:47:52			DNF
31	Paul Wisniewski	POL	00:55:00	04:46:32		DNF
32	Todd Israel	AUS	00:50:38	04:46:37		DNF
33	Paul Ambrose	GBR	00:47:42	04:30:34		DNF

Female Race Results

Caroline Steffen quickly overcame her deficit to Mary Beth Ellis after the swim.

The two rode (legally) together for the rest of the bike, then „Xena“ pulled away on the run. She seemed to be struggling a bit towards the end of the run, but nonetheless finished in sub-9 hours and more than four minutes ahead of MBE. The surprise 3rd was Kim Schwabenbauer with the best run time, overtaking Rebekah Keat in the last few kilometers. Asa Lundstrom managed to take 5th (probably enough for a Kona slot), while Angela Duncan (Naeth) took some more risks in her 2nd Ironman, was in a good position after the bike, but ran out of gas on the run.

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Time	Diff to expected
1	Caroline Steffen	SUI	00:52:03	04:56:38	03:04:44	08:57:57	04:10
2	Mary Beth Ellis	USA	00:50:00	04:59:36	03:08:48	09:02:15	-01:44
3	Kim Schwabenbauer	USA	01:03:32	05:00:13	03:01:34	09:10:06	-11:39
4	Rebekah Keat	AUS	00:52:50	05:01:45	03:11:59	09:11:06	-01:11
5	Asa Lundstroem	SWE	00:59:46	05:02:02	03:10:28	09:16:09	-08:50
6	Angela Duncan	CAN	00:58:32	04:51:20	03:27:50	09:21:11	-20:22
7	Mareen Hufe	GER	00:59:45	04:59:06	03:18:40	09:21:40	-00:16
8	Michelle Duffield	AUS	00:59:41	05:17:20	03:12:44	09:34:30	-19:54
9	Tracy Douglas	AUS	01:06:50	05:13:31	03:16:23	09:40:41	n/a
10	Tine Holst	DEN	01:09:56	05:01:26	03:30:23	09:47:30	-06:40
11	Kristy Hallett	AUS	01:03:23	05:13:44	03:30:34	09:52:18	-38:39
12	Rebecca Hoschke	AUS	01:03:26	05:17:25	04:07:04	10:34:33	1:05:07
13	Keiko Tanaka	JPN	00:56:22	05:07:44	05:51:22	11:59:22	1:18:59
14	Kate Bevilaqua	AUS	00:56:22			DNF
15	Stephanie Jones	USA	01:03:29			DNF

Photo Credits: Jay Prasuhn

Update (March 25th): Both Jennie Hansen and Celine Schaerer have announced that they won’t start.

Update (March 26th): As per Thomas Gerlach, Bryan Rhodes and Jonathan Shearon are not starting. I’m trying to get confirmation from WTC.

Please let me know your top picks on IM-Predictions! We want to put up a page for most of the Ironman-distance races leading up to Kona, and will have some great prizes for the best players.

Previous Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Time
1	Timo Bracht	GER	00:53:23	04:37:34	02:51:39	08:26:48
2	Trevor Delsaut	FRA	00:57:43	04:42:25	02:48:02	08:33:26
3	Jozsef Major	HUN	00:58:42	04:41:03	02:48:30	08:33:57

Female Race Results

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Time
1	Erika Csomor	HUN				09:35:34
2	Michelle Vesterby	DEN	00:55:12	05:22:36	03:14:18	09:36:31
3	Lisa Ribes	USA	01:04:23	05:21:41	03:07:15	09:38:35

Course Records

Last year was the first time that Los Cabos hosted an Ironman.

Leg	Gender	Record	Athlete	Date
Total	overall	08:26:48	Timo Bracht	2013-03-17
Swim	overall	00:49:25	Andres Castillo	2013-03-17
Bike	overall	04:37:34	Timo Bracht	2013-03-17
Run	overall	02:48:02	Trevor Delsaut	2013-03-17
Total	female	09:35:34	Erika Csomor	2013-03-17
Swim	female	00:55:12	Michelle Vesterby	2013-03-17
Bike	female	05:09:23	Mareen Hufe	2013-03-17
Run	female	03:07:15	Lisa Ribes	2013-03-17

Course Rating

The Course Rating for IM Los Cabos is -04:28. This is just based on the 2013 race where a lot of athletes were surprised by the tough bike course. Apparently, there have been changes to the bike course, it is now three laps with less hills.

Race Adjustments for IM Los Cabos

Year	Adjustment	Swim Adj.	Bike Adj.	Run Adj.	# of Athletes	Rating	Swim Rating	Bike Rating	Run Rating
2013	-04:28	-02:22	-03:04	01:57	31	-04:28	-02:22	-03:04	01:57

KPR points and Prize Money

IM Los Cabos has 2000 KPR points for the winner. It has a total prize purse of 75k$.

Male Race Participants

Timo Bracht is not back to defend his 2013 title, so last year’s 2nd place finisher Trevor Delsaut gets to wear bib #1. However, he is not my favorite to win the race, instead I have Daniel Fontana and TJ Tollakson (with very similar capabilities, the difference could be Daniel’s better run). Behind these two, there are more than ten athletes of a similar overall capability. One athlete that should be close to the front for most of the day is Jan Van Berkel – he’s a great swimmer, has a decent bike, and unless he explodes on the run (as he did last summer when he was leading in Switzerland), he may even be able to win the race.

Rank	Bib	Name	Nation	Expected Time	Rating	Swim Rating	Bike Rating	Run Rating	Rank
1	2	Daniel Fontana	ITA	08:41:34	08:37:17	00:48:32	04:43:22	03:00:04	31
2	4	TJ Tollakson	USA	08:43:21	08:39:03	00:48:53	04:39:22	03:05:40	40
3	13	Stephen Bayliss	GBR	08:54:02	08:49:39	00:47:50	04:50:04	03:05:03	75
4	28	Ezequiel Morales	ARG	08:56:08	08:51:44	00:53:08	04:56:32	02:57:39	(86)
5	18	Swen Sundberg	GER	08:56:31	08:52:07	00:52:19	04:45:20	03:10:18	87
6	3	Matthew Russell	USA	08:59:21	08:54:55	01:01:32	04:47:07	02:58:53	101
7	1	Trevor Delsaut	FRA	09:01:35	08:57:08	00:55:15	04:54:24	03:01:38	107
8	9	Petr Vabrousek	CZE	09:01:37	08:57:10	00:54:50	04:52:50	03:03:02	109
9	6	Patrick Evoe	USA	09:02:12	08:57:45	00:55:36	04:46:36	03:08:31	115
10	10	Jan Van Berkel	SUI	09:02:56	08:58:28	00:47:18	04:45:36	03:15:11	(121)
11	24	Jonathan Shearon	USA	09:05:21	09:00:52	00:53:35	04:46:19	03:14:41	134
12	21	Todd Skipworth	AUS	09:06:54	09:02:24	00:45:53	04:40:03	03:24:39	(140)
13	11	Mike Schifferle	SUI	09:07:43	09:03:13	01:00:17	04:51:08	03:05:22	143
14	14	Andres Castillo	COL	09:09:53	09:05:22	00:47:47	04:53:49	03:20:00	148
15	15	Dan Mcintosh	USA	09:10:46	09:06:14	00:52:03	04:52:55	03:10:13	152
16	12	Derek Garcia	USA	09:13:04	09:08:31	00:54:04	04:47:24	03:18:11	161
17	17	Domenico Passuello	ITA	09:14:43	09:10:10	00:55:23	04:51:13	03:10:27	(167)
18	25	Scott Defilippis	USA	09:22:16	09:17:39	00:57:11	05:04:58	03:06:16	191
19	23	Allan Villanueva	MEX	09:23:21	09:18:43	00:53:40	04:58:11	03:21:47	(195)
20	7	Greg Close	USA	09:26:55	09:22:16	00:57:30	05:01:22	03:10:58	(201)
21	5	Bryan Rhodes	NZL	09:27:30	09:22:50	00:48:51	05:02:29	03:27:08	204
22	22	Douglas MacLean	USA	09:27:42	09:23:02	01:00:17	05:03:51	03:09:31	205
23	29	Martin Lamontagne Lacasse	CAN	09:50:41	09:45:50	00:55:05	05:14:38	03:26:21	288
24	19	Jim Lubinski	USA	09:54:17	09:49:24	01:03:21	05:15:03	03:26:35	302
25	26	Sergio Quezada	MEX	10:12:47	10:07:45	00:51:40	05:18:41	03:48:54	355
26	20	Josef Svoboda	CZE	12:01:45	11:55:49	01:11:57	05:56:39	04:28:48	419
	27	James Duff	USA	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)
	16	Brent Mcburney	USA	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)
	8	Matthew Curbeau	USA	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)

Female Race Participants

Linsey Corbin is the obvious choice to win the race. She was injured for much of 2013, managed to get in race form just in time for Kona, then took some time off to properly heal and also switched her training environment (moving to Bend, Orgeon). However, I expect Celine Schaerer to give Linsey a big challenge: She’s the better swimmer than Linsey, probably bikes on the same level, so it should come down to the run to decide the race. (Unfortunately, Celine won’t be able to start.) Other notable athletes in the field include Jennie Hansen (recent winner of IM Lake Placid), Ashley Clifford (2nd at IM Florida with a sub-9h time), and super-fish Haley Chura (first out of the water in Kona).

Rank	Bib	Name	Nation	Expected Time	Rating	Swim Rating	Bike Rating	Run Rating	Rank
1	35	Linsey Corbin	USA	09:28:52	09:24:12	00:57:24	05:12:05	03:09:02	8
2	48	Celine Schaerer	SUI	09:39:25	09:34:39	00:47:39	05:09:47	03:18:38	(26)
3	55	Jennie Hansen	USA	09:43:37	09:38:49	01:04:26	05:15:37	03:12:04	30
4	54	Kathleen Calkins	USA	09:45:22	09:40:33	00:57:15	05:17:22	03:19:48	34
5	41	Ashley Clifford	USA	09:45:45	09:40:56	00:53:53	05:29:46	03:12:05	37
6	52	Mackenzie Madison	USA	09:48:19	09:43:29	01:02:00	05:19:38	03:13:42	43
7	37	Lisa Ribes	USA	09:49:16	09:44:26	01:04:27	05:19:37	03:14:33	46
8	43	Haley Chura	USA	09:53:32	09:48:39	00:49:06	05:23:52	03:30:22	55
9	44	Katy Blakemore	USA	09:54:55	09:50:02	00:52:57	05:27:50	03:17:00	(58)
10	36	Carrie Lester	AUS	09:55:29	09:50:35	00:56:34	05:20:06	03:27:09	60
11	38	Beth Shutt	USA	10:05:53	10:00:54	01:00:23	05:25:43	03:26:44	85
12	46	Sara Gross	CAN	10:06:19	10:01:20	00:56:44	05:39:57	03:20:38	86
13	45	Karen Thibodeau	CAN	10:09:03	10:04:03	00:54:28	05:24:36	03:22:56	(92)
14	56	Brooke Brown	CAN	10:12:09	10:07:07	01:05:12	05:21:51	03:20:23	(93)
15	49	Olesya Prystayko	UKR	10:16:26	10:11:22	01:00:03	05:27:46	03:38:04	99
16	50	Saleta Castro	ESP	10:19:34	10:14:29	00:55:44	05:29:45	03:40:57	105
17	39	Katharina Grohmann	GER	10:20:23	10:15:17	01:14:15	05:29:13	03:17:45	108
18	53	Anne Basso	FRA	10:22:57	10:17:50	00:58:39	05:34:02	03:43:03	114
19	47	Molly Roohi	USA	10:37:16	10:32:02	01:06:29	05:31:39	03:27:55	(129)
20	51	Caroline Gregory	USA	10:37:26	10:32:12	00:57:51	05:45:21	03:43:02	129
21	42	Kristina Wiegand	GER	11:32:05	11:26:24	01:07:25	06:21:46	04:06:53	(147)
	40	Alyssa Godesky	USA	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

• TJ Tollakson: 24% (3-1)
• Daniel Fontana: 21% (4-1)
• Trevor Delsaut: 20% (4-1)
• Ezequiel Morales: 11% (8-1)
• Stephen Bayliss: 10% (9-1)
• Scott Defilippis: 3% (30-1)
• Swen Sundberg: 3% (31-1)
• Patrick Evoe: 2% (40-1)
• Jan Van Berkel: 2% (58-1)
• Matthew Russell: 2% (60-1)

Female Race Participants

• Linsey Corbin: 63% (1-1)
• Celine Schaerer: 10% (9-1)
• Jennie Hansen: 7% (13-1)
• Ashley Clifford: 5% (20-1)
• Carrie Lester: 4% (25-1)
• Lisa Ribes: 4% (25-1)
• Sara Gross: 3% (32-1)
• Mackenzie Madison: 2% (51-1)