Skip to content

Analysis

Ironman Hawaii 2013 – Odds

With the race about to start, here is another excerpt from my “2013 Kona Rating Report” with my odds for Kona. Even though I have written this article a few weeks ago, not too many things have changed. To check out how they hold up on race day, please check out my “Live Predictions” at kona.trirating.com.

Male Winners

As usual, it is hard to pick a clear favorite. Last year’s winner Pete Jacobs knows how to be in top shape for October, but as usual he has been laying low for the season. Craig Alexander has also not had a stellar result in this season, but I’m sure he would love to go out with a bang. After these two, Andreas Raelert has qualified with a sub-8h time in Austria – but the time for his first Kona win is slowly running out. Eneko Llanos has had a great season so far, but has struggled to race well in Kona. Macca is an experienced competitor, but he hasn’t had a good Ironman result since winning in 2011. There are also a couple of long shots: Dirk Bockel has posted a number of strong results in Kona and has been focusing on this race for a while. Last year’s third placed Frederik Van Lierde produced a strong result in France, but does he have the potential to step it up? James Cunnama may have the potential to win Kona, but he probably will need a bit more experience to be able to produce a great Kona result.

Favorites

  • Craig Alexander 26% (3-1)
  • Pete Jacobs 23% (3-1)

In the Mix

  • Andreas Raelert 12% (7-1)
  • Eneko Llanos 10% (9-1)
  • Chris McCormack 8% (12-1)

Long Shots

  • Dirk Bockel 7% (11-1)
  • Frederik Van Lierde 5% (19-1)
  • James Cunnama 4% (24-1)

Female Winners

On the women’s side, I see four athletes who are a bit ahead of the rest: Caroline Steffen (good, but not stellar season with a lot of racing), Mirinda Carfrae (took care of validating early and has been laying low since then), defending champion Leanda Cave (also validated early, but has been dealing with an injury) and Rachel Joyce (good qualifying race in Texas, and hopefully took her usual “Kona infection” in the summer to allow for a decent Kona prep). The numbers are so close together that it’s almost impossible to objectively pick a race favorite. After these four, I decided to skip the “In the Mix” section and go straight to the “Long Shots”. Yvonne has had a great season so far, but other than a second place from 2008 she hasn’t had a good result in Kona. Jodie Swallow has only started IM racing this year, and she’s been always on the podium and steadily improved her times and pacing. But there haven’t been too many Kona rookies to win the race. Then there is Mary Beth Ellis – unbeaten outside of Kona. Maybe she’s ready to pull off a great Kona performance this year.

Favorites

  • Caroline Steffen 20% (4-1)
  • Mirinda Carfrae 19% (4-1)
  • Leanda Cave 17% (5-1)
  • Rachel Joyce 16% (5-1)

Long Shots

  • Yvonne Van Vlercken 8% (12-1)
  • Jodie Swallow 6% (16-1)
  • Mary Beth Ellis 4% (24-1)

Male TOP 3

Although there are only three spots available, I have four “safe bets” for the podium. Obviously, at least one won’t be able to make it – but it’s hard to pick which one is not. Andreas and Pete have been super-solid in Kona. Eneko was great this year, and Crowie was only once off the podium. Behind these, there are a few established “aging” athletes (Macca, Timo), a few solid racers still working to improve in Kona (Frederik, Dirk, Jordan, David, TO, Sebi) and a few that are either in Kona for the first time or still working to find a good Kona result (James, Ronnie, Bevan).

Safe Bets

  • Andreas Raelert 46%
  • Pete Jacobs 37%
  • Eneko Llanos 35%
  • Craig Alexander 31%

Knocking on the door

  • Frederik Van Lierde 24%
  • Chris McCormack 21% 
  • Dirk Bockel 19%

Outside Chances

  • James Cunnama 10%
  • Timo Bracht 8%
  • Ronnie Schildknecht 8%
  • Bevan Docherty 8%
  • Jordan Rapp 8%
  • David Dellow 7%
  • Timothy O’Donnell 7%
  • Sebastian Kienle 6%

Female TOP 3

For the girls, the best three picks are pretty obvious: Xena, Leanda and Rinnie. Next we have Yvonne with her long list of good results. The TOP3 odds for Rachel are almost the same as her winning chances – which means that statistically she either has a very good day and delivers a winning performance or she is “completely off” and either DNFs or finishes pretty far down the list. Mary Beth also has had some TOP3 worthy results, but she hasn’t had a Kona-winning worthy performance yet. Behind these, the odds drop pretty quickly, a lot of athletes that we have seen winning races in the season only have a very small statistical chance of a podium finish. However, we usually see at least one “break-through” performance in Kona – and it’ll be very interesting to see who will be that this year.

Safe Bets

  • Caroline Steffen 53%
  • Leanda Cave 44%
  • Mirinda Carfrae 38%

Knocking on the door

  • Yvonne Van Vlerken 35%
  • Rachel Joyce 24%
  • Mary Beth Ellis 22%

Outside Chances

  • Sonja Tajsich 10%
  • Anja Beranek 9%
  • Linsey Corbin 5%

Registering for an Ironman race as a Pro

In my post on the changes to the KPR system, I wrote:

There will be even more changes to the start lists in the last few days than we already have. (If there’s a strong field, withdraw; if there is a weak field, try to enter late.) Athletes can register for as many races as they want, and can enter or pull out just a few days before the race without any penalties.

This prompted a reply from Jordan Rapp that “tightening procedures” is part of the suggestions he and the other athletes made to WTC. He offered to explain what the registration process looks like and also put me in contact with Heather Fuhr and Paula Newby-Fraser who manage the registration process for WTC. They were kind enough to answer my questions and make sure that the information I present here is as accurate as possible. (Any remaining errors are completely my own fault.)

Overview

As usual, a picture is helpful to give a quick overview of the process and the people involved in the process:

Registration

Before going into details, here is a short summary:

  1. A WTC Pro applies for a certain race at WTC Pro Registration (usually handled by Heather Fuhr).
  2. If the application is before the deadline (usually two or four weeks before a race) and the Pro race isn’t full, that Pro is then entered into the list of “registered applicants” on active.com
  3. The WTC Pro can then register for that race through active.com, similar to how an age-grouper registers. He is then on the “official” start list.
  4. This list is sent by Pro Registration to the relevant race organization. It is then released to the public and used for printing the bibs.
  5. Withdrawal before the race is done by sending an email to Pro Membership. That information is then forwarded to the race on an ad-hoc basis.

A detailed look at the Process

One caveat before I go into the details: This is the process how it typically works for North American Ironman-distance races. There are some variations for races that are organized by WTC licensees, and more changes for 70.3 and 5i50 races around the globe.

Becoming a WTC Pro

Any athlete who is recognized by their national association as a professional or elite athlete (standards vary from country to country) can contact WTC Pro Membership and ask to become a new WTC pro (or if they already have been a Pro, renew their membership). They have to pay the membership fee of 750$ (processed through active.com, some reduced fees for those who only want to do a single event).

Applying for a race

Once an athlete is a WTC Pro, he or she can apply to register for a race by sending an email to WTC Pro Registration. Apparently, athletes still try to contact the individual races directly, but that just delays the whole process as all applications have to be handled by Pro Registration.

Each race has a pro registration deadline (published at “Event Registration“), around two to four weeks before the race. (From what I heard, WTC is trying to establish a four week deadline for all races.) Also, there is an upper limit of pro slots that a race offers, but that limit is rarely reached for Ironman races. (Apparently, it has happened for late season races such as Florida or Arizona, but it’s more of a problem for popular 70.3s such as Honu.)

The application email from the WTC pro is usually handled by Heather Fuhr, WTC Pro Liaison (and 1997 Kona champion). She makes sure the formalities are observed (the athlete is a registered WTC Pro, applying before the deadline for a race with open slots) and that nothing “funny” is going on (for example, someone trying to apply for three different races on the same weekend).

Enabling Registration and Registering

If everything looks okay, Heather enables the pro for this race on active.com, and the athlete can go through the normal registration process. (Except for the prize being 0$, a pro registering is basically the same as for any age grouper – name, address, t-shirt size, medical info, etc.)

Publishing Start Lists

Close to the deadline, Heather makes sure all loose ends are tied up (for example athletes trying to register in the last few days or athletes that applied but never registered). The start list is then sent off to Athlete Services for the individual race. The race organization is then responsible for publishing the list on the race website, release it to the media etc.

Withdrawing

If an athlete wants to withdraw, he/she can do so by sending an email to Pro Registration at any time. If the start list has already been sent, that information is then forwarded to the race organization. About two days before the race, a final list taking all last minute withdrawals into account is then sent to the organization that does the timing for the event and is also reflected on the Athlete Tracker.

Suggestions for Registration and Publishing

The way I see it, there are some issues where the process can be improved further:

  1. There should be some information how many athletes have already registered for a race. (This could help avoid a situation such as IM France with only 5 women registered the week before the race and very little to do about it.) This could be as simple as a monthly email to WTC pro athletes (and maybe the triathlon press).
  2. Standardize the registration deadline to four weeks.
  3. After the registration deadline, a list in a standard format should be made available in a standard location. (Ideally, this would be the race page on Ironman.com.)

Implementing #3 would remove my biggest frustration in writing posts before a race – how do I get a decent, standardized, up-to-date start list? From what I heard from Heather and Paula, WTC is already working on it:

“Going forward what we are looking to do is have a centralized location on the Pro Membership website where we can house pro start lists. These will be published [..] just after the registration deadline.”

Missing Deadlines

Respecting the “event procedures” is part of the “WTC Code of Conduct” that each athlete accepts as part of the registration as a WTC pro.

Registering for a Race

If an athletes misses the deadline for a race registration, he/she can ask – given extenuating circumstances – for a late entry, but there’s no guarantee it will be granted. Jordan notes that “WTC has been remarkably accommodating”, but even so this means that my earlier statement (“athletes can enter just a few days before a race”) is not correct. Athletes might get lucky and be allowed a late entry, but it’s totally beyond their control.

Withdrawing from a Race

If an athlete withdraws very late or without a proper explanation, WTC can sanction the athlete, “including but not limited to” (I love these lawyerly terms!):

  • Loss of 500 earned qualifying points
  • Temporary or permanent suspension from WTC events

To date, no WTC pro has ever been sanctioned in this way.

Suggestions for Withdrawals

I think the withdrawal process is still pretty loose: There is no expectation for the athlete other than notifying Pro Registration a few days before the race that he/she won’t start. Also, notifications from athletes that they won’t start are not always reflected in the released lists. (The most recent example I noticed: Clemente Alonso had withdrawn from Mont Tremblant, but was still on the start list and got some press mentions.)

As we’ve seen in the past, this leads to lots of changes to the start list in the last few days before the race. It is also very unfortunate for a race to print bib numbers or prepare signs for the transitions areas for athletes that won’t start.

Therefore, I propose a two weak deadline for withdrawals. This sends the clear message to athletes that “normal” withdrawals (by change of plans, longer-term injuries etc.) should be communicated to WTC at least two weeks before the race. At this point, Heather can improve the “four-week list” (after registration closes) by removing all those athletes that will definitely not start and also by adding late additions. This would also help to avoid unnecessary press, signage etc.

If the start list is published on ironman.com, it could be updated at the two-week-mark. Ideally it should be simple to figure out what changed to the initial list put out, e.g. by crossing out the athletes that have withdrawn, and adding a special “late entry” section.

Of course, you can’t force athletes to start an Ironman race, and there may always be things coming up shortly before the race that prevent an athlete from starting.  But it should be clear that these “late withdrawals” will be more closely watched by WTC, and a “personal discussion” with Paula about “professional conduct” would probably help to keep these to a minimum (even without official sanctions). (More process – such as a fee for a late withdrawal, limiting the number of late withdrawals per season or requiring a doctor’s notice – sound tough, but will probably not achieve any meaningful results: Either the requirements are easy to “fake”, or you’re punishing everyone for the transgressions of few.)

Registration Process and the KPR

In my discussion of the recent KPR changes I saw the danger of “more changes to the start lists in the last few days than we already have: If there’s a strong field, withdraw; if there is a weak field, try to enter late.” I’m glad that the registration process as outlined above should do a pretty good job of limiting last-minute additions.

As outlined above, I think the withdrawal part of the field still should be firmed up a bit more. While it’s great that WTC have been very accommodating, the changes in the KPR mandate that withdrawals later than two weeks before the race should be for “obvious reasons” only.

Jordan has a clear view on this:

I think WTC was way too accommodating on not penalizing athletes for dropping out last minute. This was one of the big pieces of feedback that Craig, Meredith, and I all gave WTC, not only because we were upset by athletes abusing the registration process, but because we got a lot of feedback from our peers that were also peeved by athletes abusing the process.

To sum up, I hope that late registrations become an exception, and that repetitive “fishy” late withdrawals will be sanctioned.

Summary

I think that with just a few tweaks the WTC registration process will do a very good job of making sure that late entries and frequent late withdrawals can be limited to exceptions. WTC is rarely accused of being too accommodating, but the KPR changes require a tightening of the withdrawal guidelines and a stricter enforcement of the rules. This would also make it easier for WTC to make up-do-date start lists available to the public starting about four weeks before a race. All in all, this would be very welcome improvements to the current situation.

Kona slots at end of August

Last weekend, the final Professional Kona slots were decided and 10 slots for the men and 7 slots for the women were awarded. This post has a closer look at the changes in the KPR standings between the end of July and the end of August and what was required to become an August qualifier.

Athletes close to the cutoff

The first set of tables shows the men and women who

  • were in the August qualifier spots at the end of July (i.e. the first 10 or 7 non-qualifiers).
  • qualified at the end of August, or
  • were very close to qualifying.

The tables list these athletes together with

  • their rank (among the non-qualifiers) and points at the end of July and August (qualifying spots are marked green),
  • the Delta between July and August (i.e. the change in ranks and the addition points scored), and
  • a short description of their August race results.

Here’s a look at the men’s table:

KPRMen

And here’s the same data for the women:

KPWomen2

It obvious that “big result racing” was required to qualify:

  • Daniel Halksworth made the biggest jump from somewhere around #100 (he was so far back I didn’t copy his July standing) to #9, winning in the UK and then baking it up with a 4th place at Mont Tremblant. On the women’s side, Anja Beranek moved from #29 to 5th place.
  • Lots of athletes qualified by racing in Mont Tremblant, making use of the large number of points available in the P-4000 race (e.g. Luke, Brandon, Keatsy, Liz Blatchford).
  • Some athletes had to race multiple times (because they didn’t score enough points in their first race), sometimes even back-to-back (Mike, Dominik and Paul had to score in Mont Tremblant and a week later in Canada to qualify).
  • If you were sitting in an August qualifying spot at the end of July, you had to race in order to stay get a slot.

Non-qualifiers

The following tables show the result that the athletes who didn’t qualify would have needed. Obviously, those athletes that didn’t race would have needed another race, and especially with those close to the cutoff just a mediocre result in a big race such as IM Mont Tremblant would have been sufficient. (15th place in IMMT would have been 800 points, 10th place was 1600.)

KPRMen More Races

KPRWomenNew2

I guess the data highlights a few points:

  • It’s a bit risky to “rely” on just one good result, a DNF can destroy your hopes pretty soon. (Daniel Fontana had a mechanical 60k into the bike and had to let go of his Kona dreams.)
  • Even if you think you’re not having a good day, it still makes sense to fight for each and every place. The difference for Kimberly Schwabenhauer between 5th and 4th in Mont Tremblant was less than 6 minutes, similar for Haley Chura between 8th and 6th. Just a few minutes in any race can make the difference between qualifying or not. I’m sure that there are other examples in earlier races.

Note: An earlier version of this post was written before Sarah Piampiano declined her slot. The women’s tables have been updated to reflect this.

Final Qualifying Races for Kona 2013

This weekend, there are the final races that give out points for Kona 2013:

This post has a look at what the current KPR ranking is after three Ironman races last weekend (including the P-4000 race in Mont Tremblant), what changes are possible and who I think the final qualifiers are going to be.

Please note that my analysis is based on the start lists that I was able to find or that I was sent by WTC – they may be outdated by now, and some additional athletes may have decided to go for the last few points. Please let me know if there are errors in my numbers or if you have some newer information that may change things.

Situation after Mont Tremblant

The big point race in Mont Tremblant (P-4000) and (to a lesser degree)  the “smaller” races in Sweden (P-2000) and Copenhagen (P-1000) have changed the KPR standings quite significantly. Rather than list the “full” KPR standing, mixing those already qualified with those still looking for a slot (as WTC does), which just shows pretty meaningless overall positions, here are the athletes that are currently in the remaining Kona qualifying spots.

Women

The women’s field in Kona will be 35 (+automatic qualifiers). 28 were already awarded at the end of July, so there are 7 more spots available:

Rank Name Points
1 Rebekah Keat 7.680
2 Liz Blatchford 6.730
3 Britta Martin 6.210
4 Jennie Hansen 5.870
5 Anja Beranek 5.750
6 Sarah Piampiano 5.690
7 Eva Nystroem 5.400

Men

The men’s field in Kona will be 50 (+automatic qualifiers). 40 were already awarded at the end of July, so there are 10 more spots available:

Rank Name Points
1 Luke Bell 6.320
2 Brandon Marsh 5.830
3 Bert Jammaer 5.560
4 Stefan Schmid 5.140
5 David Plese 5.065
6 Daniel Halksworth 4.820
7 Romain Guillaume 4.715
8 Pedro Gomes 4.620
9 Jozsef Major 4.390
10 Mike Schifferle 4.320

Update: I haven’t checked if all of these athletes are interested in a slot. At least Romain Guillaume indicated in an interview with the French Trimag that he won’t race Kona but wants to start to chase 2014 points in Wisconsin (but left the final decision open). So we may see some slots rolling down after all.

Brasil 70.3

After having a look at the start list for the Brasil 70.3, the chance of anyone from the field getting the required points to cross the qualifying threshold is pretty slim. (We have two participants who are already qualified, Amanda Stevens and Igor Amorelli).

The best placed non-qualified women that I could find is Ariane Monticelli with 2.160 points. With Brasil giving out 750 points for the winner, she won’t be able to get into qualifying territory. The situation is similar for the men, the best places athlete is Jeremy Jurkiewicz with 3.620 points. If he wins the race, he’d get to 4.370 points, barely moving past Mike Schifferle. However, I expect that the number of points required is to move up, so the chances of Jeremy qualifying are more theoretical.

IM Louisville

The situation for the field in Louisville is similar. Aside from one athlete already qualified (Thomas Gerlach), the best placed athletes (April Lea Gellatly with 3.300 points and Chris McDonald with 1.890 points) are too far back to get the required points in the P-1000 race. For a closer look at the field, check out my IM Louisville predictions post.

IM Canada

IM Canada will be held in Whistler for the first time this year. Being a P-2000 race it offers the best chances to get some final qualifying points. For a closer look at the field, please check out my IM Canada predictions post.

In the women’s field there is only one registered athlete who could get enough points to move beyond Eva Nystroem with 5.400 points: Olesya Pristayko with currently 3.850 points. However, she has five results already, so with winning Canada she’ll move to 5.570 points. (A 2nd place will only get her to 5.330, not enough to qualify.) Can she win Canada? It’s not impossible, but she just raced in Mont Tremblant so I’ll say it’s very unlikely.

All in all, I don’t expect any last minute changes in the women’s Kona qualifiers.

For the men, the situation is a lot more interesting as there are a number of athletes on the start list that sit around the current cutoff of 4.320 points:

  • Daniel Halksworth – 4.820 points
  • Mike Schifferle – 4.320 points
  • Dominik Berger – 4.280 points
  • Bruno Clerbout – 3.560 points
  • Paul Amey – 3.515 points

Bryan Rhodes is currently at 2.400 points, but as he already has five results, he can’t increase his points beyond 4.300, so he’s not able to qualify any more. (In addition to the athletes mentioned, there is Matt Russell who is already qualified.)

Except for Bruno, all these athletes have raced last weekend. A lot of them already have the maximum number of five results which makes it even harder to predict what’s going to happen. Here’s my best “guesstimate”:

  • Daniel should be safe – he’s currently sitting in 6th place, and even if all four of the other athletes move past him (which is very unlikely), he’ll still be 10th and get the final slot. So unless there are any surprise last minute additions to the field, there is no reason for him to race.
  • Mike and Dominik – not sure if they are going to race again and what they will be able to achieve if they do. They probably need some more points, and even 400 should be enough (15th place in Canada).
  • Bruno hasn’t raced a full-distance race since IM France. Unless he has a mechanical or runs into other major issues, he should get enough points to qualify. He needs about 900 points to move past Mike – 8th place is 960 points in Canada.
  • Paul would need a solid number of points to qualify, I’d say at least 1.000. That would require a 7th place finish (1.040 points). I’m not sure if he wants to race Kona that much. If I had to guess, I’d say he doesn’t qualify even he starts in Canada.

To sum up, here are my picks for the final men’s qualifiers:

  • Safe (6): Luke Bell, Brandon Marsh, Bert Jammaer, Stefan Schmidt, David Plese, Daniel Halksworth
  • Looking Good (2): Romain Guillaume (if he accepts his slot), Pedro Gomes
  • Needs to Race in Canada to Qualify (4): Bruno Clerbout, Mike Schifferle, Dominik Berger, and Paul Amey

I guess that two of the last category will race and make enough points. If that’s the case, it would also mean that Joszef Major (currently 9th) drops out of remaining 10 Kona spots. This makes 4.390 the “magic number” to beat for qualifying.

Select your currency
EUR Euro

By continuing to use the site, you agree to the use of cookies. more information

The cookie settings on this website are set to "allow cookies" to give you the best browsing experience possible. If you continue to use this website without changing your cookie settings or you click "Accept" below then you are consenting to this.

Close