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Analysis

KPR Thoughts – Validation

At a quick glance, the „Kona Pro Ranking“ (or KPR for short) determines just how Professional athletes qualify for Kona. However, the KPR is much more important, it has an impact on races (by determining „important“ races it strongly influences where Professional athletes race), athletes (encouraging, almost forcing them to plan their season in order to qualify) and allocation of prize money (loosely following the points allocation). Therefore, changes to the KPR should be carefully considered – and are also hotly debated.

I want to go through a few of the issues being discussed, trying to summarize where the discussion stands, to give my assessment of likely changes, and also to add some of my own thoughts. Rather than doing this in one large blog post, I will write a number of smaller posts, each focusing on a single issue. Assuming that WTC will not dramatically change the system, my goal is not to discuss all possible ideas, but focus on those that are relatively close to the existing system and therefore have at least a little chance to be considered.

The first issue I want to discuss is validation.

Technically, validation describes the requirement of having to finish one full distance Ironman race outside of Kona in order to be eligible for a Kona slot. Most often, this is discussed in the context of previous champions. They are automatic qualifiers for five years after their win as long as they “validate their entry by completing one full-distance Ironman race, excluding Kona, during the Qualifying Year.” Some of the past champions have voiced concerns about this, most notably Craig Alexander who made it clear that he would prefer to race just one full Ironman per year – in Kona. The recent 70.3 champion and the Hy Vee champion are also automatic qualifiers (but only for the year immediately following their title) and the Kona Top 10 usually have enough points to ensure a points slot.

There have been at least two incidents where athletes clearly just competed to finish and not to place well:

  • Andreas Raelert walked the marathon in IM Regensburg in 2011 with a calf injury.
  • Mirinda Carefrae just completed IM Florida 2013 after her fantastic Kona win. Both Mirinda and husband Tim O’Donnell made it clear that they would take things easy on the run, complete with joking on twitter about what comfort food to consume on the run.
  • There may be a third incident later this year, with Pete Jacobs announcing that he would „just walk“ an Ironman after bowing out of IM Texas not being 100% fit.

My own views on this issue have changed a bit over the years. I think it is obvious that no-one thinks that a recent Kona winner is not „worthy“ of starting in the Kona Pro field. But if Kona winners could just rock up to Kona, they might have an unfair advantage: By not having to race any IMs, they could be more rested than all the other participants that have to struggle for points to make it to Kona. Therefore, I am (a bit reluctantly) agreeing with the concept of validation. However, I’m sure that if everyone is interested, WTC, the local race organizer and sponsors, the athlete and the athlete’s sponsors could produce something that is a worthwhile for everyone involved (joint press releases, athlete’s appearances, sponsor give-aways, promos etc.).

In the recent interview with Bob Babbitt, Andrew Messick said the following about the rules for validation (Andrew said he doesn’t begrudge Mirinda, so this shouldn’t be seen as a personal attack on the athletes):

We have a set of rules, and there are always ways in which motivated people can get around the intent of the rule. Sometimes we tolerate it, and if we find it intolerable, we change the rules.

After Florida I was thinking that WTC would think that enforcing validation isn’t very helpful, and would instead switch to something like „one IM or two 70.3s”. However, now it more sounds as if WTC will further tighten the requirements for validation, probably something like “x% within the winner” or “not more than y minutes slower than the winner”.

My assessment: Validation will continue to be required for all Kona qualifiers. If there are going to be changes, the requirements for validation will be tightened.

Ironman Australia 2014 – Analyzing Results

Race Conditions

Conditions in Australia were similar to last year: an adjustment of 12:47, mainly because of a pretty fast run (8:31).

Male Race Results

The main story in the men’s field has to be Luke Bell’s DNF. He was leading the field by a large margin after the bike, but had to call it a day even before the 20k mark. He wasn’t completely recovered from a knee injury earlier in the year and tweeted his analysis that „3 wks of running just not enough“. If his knee is basically okay and just needs a bit more time, my guess is that he’ll race a September Ironman (defend his title in Mont Tremblant?) or start to rack up points for Kona 2015 with a late season Ironman.

After Luke was out of the race, Elliot Holtham quickly took the place in the spotlight: He passed Paul Ambrose and while never moving far ahead just had the better run, winning his first Ironman and gaining a good position to qualify for Kona. Paul Ambrose finished second, with Nick Baldwin taking the last spot on the podium.

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to expected
1 Elliot Holtham CAN 00:49:26 04:49:09 02:53:28 08:35:18 -16:58
2 Paul Ambrose GBR 00:46:29 04:46:28 03:01:37 08:37:47 -06:14
3 Nick Baldwin SEY 00:50:10 04:50:54 02:56:22 08:41:19 -00:17
4 Denis Chevrot FRA 00:44:25 05:05:54 02:50:45 08:44:43 18:11
5 Jason Shortis AUS 00:50:23 05:04:33 02:48:54 08:47:53 08:09
6 Luke Whitmore AUS 00:50:28 05:01:19 03:03:36 08:58:51 08:52
7 Darren Jenkins AUS 00:59:12 05:01:15 02:58:23 09:02:31 n/a
8 Jon Woods NZL 00:53:15 05:15:36 03:13:43 09:26:18 -08:31
9 Luke Bell AUS 00:44:24 04:37:31 DNF
10 Matty White AUS 00:50:13 DNF

Female Race Results

After the swim and bike, Lisa Marangon had built a solid lead with a race best bike. However, once Melissa Hauschildt had put on her running shoes it was clear that if her first ever marathon went well, she’d be able to take the win. Mel passed Lisa around the 24k mark, then built and held a small lead. It’ll be interesting to see what she can do once she has some more IM-specific training under her belt – and what that will mean for her 70.3 speed. Lisa Marangon took the 2nd place and is now on the qualifying bubble for Kona. Melanie Burke took the last spot on the podium with the best women’s run of 3:09.

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to expected
1 Melissa Hauschildt AUS 00:50:46 05:19:57 03:13:57 09:28:43 n/a
2 Lisa Marangon AUS 00:49:49 05:12:19 03:23:53 09:30:50 -10:57
3 Melanie Burke NZL 00:58:08 05:21:39 03:09:19 09:32:53 -10:39
4 Dimity-Lee Duke AUS 00:57:22 05:28:30 03:14:03 09:43:38 -46:33
5 Hillary Biscay USA 00:49:23 05:39:41 03:22:12 09:55:43 -00:43
6 Megumi Shigaki JPN 00:56:27 05:51:25 03:32:45 10:24:57 -26:39
7 Tamsyn Hayes NZL 00:55:24 05:25:49 04:04:31 10:29:59 34:35

Challenge Taiwan 2014 – Analyzing Results

Race Conditions

Conditions in Taiwan were pretty quick this year: The adjustment of 20:06 was about as fast as IM Melbourne, mainly on the strength of a relatively fast bike.

Male Race Results

As usual, Dylan McNeice stormed ahead on the swim and bike. The race got exciting on the run, when Fredrik Croneborg and Jason Shortis almost caught him towards the end: The Top 3 were within less than two minutes.

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to expected
1 Dylan McNeice NZL 00:46:11 04:29:02 03:03:40 08:23:44 -04:54
2 Fredrik Croneborg SWE 00:52:26 04:31:33 02:56:09 08:24:22 -07:49
3 Jason Shortis AUS 00:55:37 04:26:56 02:57:39 08:25:32 -08:54
4 Till Schramm GER 00:55:28 04:27:01 03:06:10 08:33:24 -20:57
5 Nick Baldwin SEY 00:55:02 04:27:32 03:11:12 08:38:56 06:05
6 Eneko Elosegui ESP 00:55:29 04:27:06 03:24:28 08:51:41 -21:31
7 Petr Vabrousek CZE 00:55:34 04:42:19 03:11:29 08:55:03 17:24
8 Mao Yung Yang TWN 00:52:28 04:53:10 03:23:50 09:16:07 n/a
9 Eric Watson AUS 00:49:38 04:51:41 03:39:27 09:27:48 n/a
10 Brad Wauer AUS 00:52:31 04:49:21 04:05:16 09:52:24 n/a
11 Guy Crawford NZL 00:49:53 04:53:34 DNF
12 Matt Burton AUS 00:55:30 DNF
13 Andrej Vistica CRO 00:55:43 04:41:49 DNF

Female Race Results

Britta Martin had a good day, being „in the green“ for all three legs, and finished almost 30 minutes ahead of Iron-rookie Jessica Fleming. Belinda Granger ended her IM career with finish #50 and the last spot on the podium.

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to expected
1 Britta Martin NZL 00:58:21 04:54:37 03:04:16 09:02:23 -17:19
2 Jessica Fleming AUS 01:02:28 04:57:36 03:26:30 09:31:25 n/a
3 Belinda Granger AUS 00:55:29 05:04:46 03:40:11 09:45:06 26:04
4 Kathrin Walther GER 01:02:25 05:20:16 03:45:04 10:13:16 -08:36
5 Stef Puszka AUS 01:04:13 05:29:50 03:33:37 10:13:42 n/a
6 Hillary Biscay USA 00:53:23 05:49:29 04:13:06 11:11:23 1:26:22
7 Jodie Scott AUS 00:57:41 05:38:01 05:05:18 11:50:09 1:35:17
8 Kate Bevilaqua AUS 00:54:23 04:58:45 DNF
9 Yasuko Miyazaki JPN 01:03:08 DNF

Updated TOP 10 Ratings

I’ve just updated the Top 10 Ratings page (which also contains the top rated athletes in each of the disciplines, and all Ironman-distance results of the athletes). Please note that this is an updated version of the data in my 2013 TriRating Report, since releasing the report I’ve been working a bit more on my rating algorithm.

TOP 10 Rated Male Athletes

Rank Name Nation Rating Last Race # Races
1 Eneko Llanos ESP 08:21:43 IM Hawaii on 2013-10-12 18
2 Timo Bracht GER 08:22:39 IM Hawaii on 2013-10-12 20
3 Craig Alexander AUS 08:22:46 IM Hawaii on 2013-10-12 10
4 Sebastian Kienle GER 08:24:13 IM Hawaii on 2013-10-12 7
5 Frederik Van Lierde BEL 08:24:36 IM Hawaii on 2013-10-12 12
6 Marino Vanhoenacker BEL 08:24:51 IM Germany on 2013-07-07 14
7 Faris Al-Sultan GER 08:25:19 IM Hawaii on 2013-10-12 17
8 Bart Aernouts BEL 08:25:26 IM Hawaii on 2013-10-12 4
9 Andreas Raelert GER 08:26:05 IM Western Australia on 2013-12-08 11
10 Dirk Bockel LUX 08:26:22 IM Hawaii on 2013-10-12 9

Llanos Run

2013 was clearly a transition year at the top of the male athletes. Only one athlete in the top 10 (Kona winner Frederik Van Lierde) has had a great year and managed to improve his rating.

My new #1 rated athlete is Eneko Llanos. He’s managed to win two regional championships (Melbourne and Frankfurt) and also had a decent finish to the season (11th in Kona and 3rd in Cozumel), already securing his Kona slot for 2014. It’ll be interesting to see if he focuses his 2014 season on another (final?) shot at winning Kona.

Timo Bracht in 2nd and Craig Alexander in 3rd are athletes close the end of their career. Timo is a very consistent performer – the last time he was out of the top 10 in Kona was in 2008 when he was DQ’d after reaching the finish in 5th place. Craig has said good-bye to Ironman racing after his disappointing 21st place in Kona.

Sebastian Kienle didn’t have a great start to 2013 but managed to turn things around in time for the big races. He was injured and sick for most of the first half of the year, and considering his preparation had a great race in Frankfurt (9th place in a stacked field). Then he defended his 70.3 title in Las Vegas and finished on the Kona podium.

VanLierde Run

As already mentioned, Frederik Van Lierde is the only top 10 athlete who improved his rating with two great wins in France and Kona. It will be interesting to see how he deals with the added pressure in 2014, but I’m sure with the help of his coach Luc Van Lierde he’ll prepare well.

Marino Vanhoenacker (6th), Andreas Raelert (9th) and Dirk Bockel (10th) have to think hard about their plans for 2014. They’ve struggled with injuries, didn’t score any Kona points, and finished the year with frustrating DNFs (Marino in Cozumel and Andreas in Western Australia) or didn’t recover in time for another IM (Dirk with a slight hip injury). Maybe they should regroup in 2014 before re-focusing on Kona in 2015.

Faris Al-Sultan (7th) seems to always be in the mix in Kona, but then can’t quite hold on to his great position on the run. However, he seems to still enjoy racing, and he’s still good enough to win almost any Ironman race. But with the attractive races in the European summer I just can’t see him focus 100% on Kona and risk a full season for another shot at winning Kona.

Bart Aernouts in 8th place has developed into the top Ironman runner: He’s posted the fastest run times in Kona for two years, and also had a great 2:37 at IM France. He continues to improve year by year, and should be a podium contender in Kona 2014.

Compared to last year, a few athletes have dropped from the Top 10:

  • Chris McCormack (still in 11th place) probably missed his last shot at a good Kona result when he was forced to withdraw from Kona 2013 with Epstein-Barr virus. I’d be surprised to still see him race at a Top-10-level in 2014.
  • David Dellow (now in 15th place) had some bad luck, catching an infection just before Kona. He has recovered and already scored some Kona points by finishing 3rd in Western Australia.
  • Cam Brown is now in 13th place. He was finally beaten by Bevan Docherty in IM New Zealand, then had a disappointing run at Challenge Roth. It’ll be interesting to see how his 2014 season will be, he’s already had some good results in 70.3s.

TOP 10 Rated Female Athletes

Rank Name Nation Rating Last Race # Races
1 Mirinda Carfrae AUS 09:10:46 IM Florida on 2013-11-02 9
2 Caroline Steffen SUI 09:12:28 IM Hawaii on 2013-10-12 15
3 Rachel Joyce GBR 09:12:35 IM Hawaii on 2013-10-12 13
4 Yvonne Van Vlerken NED 09:14:27 IM Florida on 2013-11-02 13
5 Liz Blatchford GBR 09:17:09 IM Hawaii on 2013-10-12 3
6 Mary Beth Ellis USA 09:22:49 IM Hawaii on 2013-10-12 10
7 Julia Gajer GER 09:22:49 IM Arizona on 2013-11-17 5
8 Linsey Corbin USA 09:24:12 IM Hawaii on 2013-10-12 15
9 Jodie Swallow GBR 09:25:03 IM Hawaii on 2013-10-12 3
10 Gina Crawford NZL 09:25:27 IM Hawaii on 2013-10-12 21

Rinny Run

In the women’s ranking, we have a clear #1 athlete: No one can argue that Mirinda Carfrae is currently the best female Pro. She was leading the rankings last year, and she convincingly confirmed the top spot by winning Kona in a fantastic way.

I’m not sure how Caroline Steffen judges her year. She’s posted great results (winning Roth and MetaMan), but couldn’t deliver the Kona performance she was hoping for and had to fight very hard for “only” a 5th place finish. There will be some changes to her 2014 season after leaving Team TBB and Brett Sutton. She has just announced that she’ll be coached by Chris McCormack.

My new #3 is Rachel Joyce. She managed her season very well, with two great results in Texas and Kona, and a slight injury in between. She used her fitness to win in Cozumel, so she already secured her Kona slot for 2014. She’s been making steady progress from year to year, but there is not much more room!

Yvonne Van Vlerken remains in 4th place, but while in 2012 that ranking was mainly based on a great Florida race, she’s had a solid year of good results (and no DNFs) in 2013. In all her long-distance races she was in contention for the win, and – also having secured her Kona slot already – she seems to have a solid base for a great 2014 season. 

With Liz Blatchford (5th), Julia Gajer (7th) and Jodie Swallow (9th) we have three athletes new to long-distance racing. Liz switched over from short-course racing, qualified late for Kona and then snagged the final spot on the podium. Julia had raced very fast in Roth in the past years, in 2013 she also raced two Ironman races, winning her first IM title in Arizona. Jodie seems to have finally overcome her struggles and is healthy enough for long-distance training and racing. After three increasingly better IMs she struggled with racing in the Kona heat.

Mary Beth Ellis (6th) had a pretty good year until she broke her collarbone close to Kona. She couldn’t fully recover, and had to DNF. While she continues to race for Team TBB, she has switched coaches to Siri Lindley – I hope that this will help her find an extra gear in Kona.

Linsey Corbin (8th) was pretty much a “no show” in 2013. She struggled with injuries, but managed to pull off a miraculous 10th place in Kona on a long run of just 9 miles. She scrapped plans of racing another Ironman in 2013, so it looks as if she wants to take the time to properly heal this time, and then come back strong for 2014.

Gina Crawford (10th) has had 6 Ironman-distance finishes in 2013 and continues to post one solid result after another. She has signed with Matt Dixon of Purplepatch in her quest for a top Kona result.

Athletes that have dropped out of the top 10:

  • Last year’s Kona winner Leanda Cave (now in 11th) was dealing with injuries all year. She finally pulled the pin on a frustrating season, but it remains to be seen if she still has the fire in her to come back in 2014. As a former Kona winner, she just has to validate her Kona slot by completing an Ironman race, and this means she can be a bit more relaxed in planning her season.
  • Sonja Tajsich (unrated after a string of injury-related DNFs)
  • Amy Marsh (now #22 after two races where she struggled on the run)
  • Rebekah Keat (now #18 after a Kona DNF – she was racing very well in 70.3s towards the end of 2013, but doesn’t seem interested to race IMs right now)

Ironman 2013 Money List

Note: This is an excerpt from my 2013 TriRating Report which has a lot more information about the 2013 long distance season. You can download it for free using this link.

In other sports – such as golf – the main way of ranking athletes is by the amount of prize money they make. With all the data from the qualifying races, I’ve built one for Ironman Triathlons. It is also a convenient way of putting men and women in the same list.

Here are the 20 athletes – both from the men and women – that have earned the most prize money in „official”, full-distance Ironman races in the Kona 2013 qualifying cycle. This year, I’ve added the Kona money makers and the changes in the rankings the Kona money makes:

Rank Name IM Kona Total Rank
1 Mary Beth Ellis 55.000 6
2 Eneko Llanos 50.000 7
3 Jodie Swallow 35.000 10
4 Erika Csomor 34.250 11
5 Luke Bell 30.000 16
Corinne Abraham 30.000 16
7 Camilla Pedersen 25.000 21
8 Jessie Donavan 22.000 25
9 Liz Blatchford 20.500 40.000 60.500 5
10 Uli Bromme 20.000 26
Ben Hoffman 20.000 26
Paul Amey 20.000 26
Bas Diederen 20.000 26
Ronnie Schildknecht 20.000 26
15 Meredith Kessler 18.750 14.000 32.750 14
16 Amanda Stevens 18.000 32
17 Ivan Rana 17.750 16.000 33.750 13
18 Gina Crawford 17.500 11.000 28.500 18
Yvonne Van Vlerken 17.500 22.500 40.000 8
20 Jan Raphael 17.250 33
24 Frederik Van Lierde 15.000 120.000 135.000 1
Luke McKenzie 15.000 60.000 75.000 3
Timothy O’Donnell 15.000 19.000 34.000 12
Timo Bracht 15.000 11.000 26.000 20
Rachel Joyce 15.000 60.000 75.000 3
Linsey Corbin 15.000 10.000 25.000 21
45 Michelle Vesterby 10.500 12.500 23.000 24
59 James Cunnama 8.500 22.500 31.000 15
68 Bart Aernouts 7.500 12.500 20.000 26
Caroline Steffen 7.500 19.000 26.500 19
Caitlin Snow 7.500 16.000 23.500 23
99 Faris Al-Sultan 5.000 10.000 15.000 35
130 Tyler Butterfield 3.000 14.000 17.000 34
141 Mirinda Carfrae 2.750 120.000 122.750 2
Sebastian Kienle 40.000 40.000 8

As last year, 70.3s and non-WTC races are not included.

EllisPreSwim

Here are some observations:

  • Mary Beth Ellis leads the non-Kona list (winning in Cozumel, France and Mont Tremblant) followed by Eneko Llanos (winning the regional Championships in Melbourne and Frankfurt). These two have made significantly more money than the leader last year (Caroline Steffen with 30.000).
  • Once you include Kona money, the list is dominated by the top 3 Kona athletes: Frederik, Rinny, Rachel, Luke, and Liz. Sebastian Kienle is “only” 8th, but he did not earn any other IM money.
  • The conclusion from previous years is still valid: Outside of a good Kona payday, it is next to impossible to make a living on Ironman prize money.

Photo Credit: Jay Prasuhn

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