Analysis

Note: This is an excerpt from my 2013 TriRating Report which has a lot more information about the 2013 long distance season. You can download it for free using this link.

When listing the top results, there are two different ways of presenting them: One is by the „clock time“ as posted on the race results. This is pretty interesting by itself, but normalized times (adjusting for a fast or slow course and conditions on race day) are usually a bit more indicative of how good the performance really was (and not on how fast a course the race was occurring).

This post contains the Top 3 results (as per clock time) and Top 3 performances in each of the legs.

Swim

Top 3 Male Performances of 2013

Dylan McNeice’s results show why he my the new top-rated swimmer: All of his four swims in IM- distance races made it into the top 10, and his two best swims are the #1 and #2 performances:

Fastest 3 Male Times of 2013

The best male swim times this year were posted in Austria, I’m not aware of any reports that the course was short:

Top 3 Female Performances of 2013

Fastest 3 Female Times of 2013

Jodie was a minute slower than Amanda Stevens last year, but her time from Germany was still the fastest this year:

Bike

Top 3 Male Performances of 2013

As in 2012 Andy Starykowicz’ bike leg from IM Florida was the best bike performance of the year, but the difference to the next spots is much smaller than if you just looked at the “raw” times:

Fastest 3 Male Times of 2013

Of course Andy Strykowicz’s new “world record” at IM Florida was the fastest time of the year:

Top 3 Female Performances of 2013

As in 2012 Caroline had the best bike performance of the year:

Fastest 3 Female Times of 2013

IM Florida almost saw a new “world bike record” on the women’s side as well – Yvonne missed Caroline’s best from Melbourne 2012 by just 20 seconds:

Run

Top 3 Male Performances of 2013

In 2013 we saw some fantastic runs, but I don’t think that too many people would have listed Tim Berkel’s 2:44 from Cairns as the best run performance of the year. However, you have to consider that there were only two more sub-3h performances on that day – by Chris McCormack and Jason Shortis, both more than ten minutes slower than Tim!

Fastest 3 Male Times of 2013

The fastest run times come from a number of different courses. The two 2:37 marathon were the fastest times we’ve seen in the past years (and on mostly legitimate courses at that). The fastest time I’m aware of is a 2:35 by Peter Reid in Austria 1999 – on a run course even Peter admits was short.

Top 3 Female Performances of 2013

The run results are dominated by Kona results, indicating that all athletes gave their absolute best in the race that matters most. Of course, Rinny had the best Kona run and also the best run performance of the year:

Fastest 3 Female Times of 2013

Rinny had the fastest 2013 run by quite a large margin:

Note: This is an excerpt from my 2013 TriRating Report which has a lot more information about the 2013 long distance season. You can download it for free using this link.

By adjusting for a fast or slow course and conditions on race day, I’m able to compare finishing times from different courses. Therefore, my list of the top performances of the year is a bit more indicative of how good the performance really was (and not on how fast a course the race was occurring).

TOP 10 Male Results

This year, Dirk Bockel posted the fastest time and – according to my calculations – also the best performance.

Only Frederik Van Lierde has two of the top 10 performances (his wins in France and Kona), and only Kona has three results in the top 10 showing that even with the slower times it is the race with the best field.

TOP 10 Female Results

Undoubtedly, Rinny’s Kona win with a course-record time is the best performance of the year.

Caroline Steffen had three results in the top 10, and five of the best performances were delivered in Kona:

Photo Credits: Sebastian Kuhn and Jay Prasuhn

Race Conditions

Conditions in Western Australia seemed to have been pretty good: An adjustment of 16:28 was the fastest race since the record-breaking year of 2007. The conditions of both the bike and the run were fast, resulting in almost a new women’s course record.

Male Race Results

Pre-race favorite Andreas Raelert had another frustrating DNF (apparently the same problems as in Hawaii), while home-boy Luke Bell also didn’t finish. After being sick in Kona, David Dellow had a was just a little bit off. But you have to have a solid day to win an Ironman, as there are always a few athletes with a fantastic day. This time, it was Jeremy Jurkiewicz: He is usually a stellar runner (again posting the fastest run-split), but this time he was already leading after T2!

Female Race Results

The run carried the day on the women’s side as well: Elizabeth Lyles ran through the field, and posted a sub-9h result to win the race in front of German Mareen Hufe (leading into T2) and Lisa Marangon who was leading the race in the early parts of the bike:

Photo Credit: Ironman.com

Before Kona, there was a lot of speculation about Caroline Steffen’s prep which included a full Ironman-distance race just six weeks before Kona. Now that the race is over, I have a closer look at some of the data on the impact of season planning for performance in Kona.

Of course this analysis has some limitations:

• There are not too many data points – after all, we only had 85 pro athletes on the start line in Kona.
• Each athlete recovers at a different rate, the analysis can only be a general guideline that has to be adapted for each athlete.
• My data and analysis is limited to the Pros, the picture could be different for age groupers.

With these caveats out of the way, let’s have a look at the data. I’ll be showing graphs of athletes Kona performance. The Kona performance is the time difference (in minutes) between their Rating (based on all their previous results) and their normalized Kona finish time, after accounting for the course and conditions on race day. A „normal“ day would produce a Kona performance of 0, performances larger than 0 mean that the athlete performed better than expected, negative numbers indicate that things didn’t go quite as well.

Last IM before Kona

The first graph show the athletes Kona performance in relation to the time that each athlete took between racing his/her last Ironman-distance race before Kona:

The month names indicate when the last IM-distance race was, the light blue line shows the median Kona performances, and the thicker blue line a „best fit“ for the data.

Here’s the raw data behind this graph:

There are a few interesting observations in this data:

• The time since the last IM does not seem to have a discernible influence on the DNF rate.
• In order to deliver the best Kona performance, there seems to be a sweet-spot in May. (But if we included the November data, we would end up with a relatively „flat“ graph before May. Hard to tell if there is much of a difference with so few data points.)
• After May, the less time there is before Kona, the more likely it is to have a bad result. The 2013 data doesn’t show much of a difference between July and August.

Number of IMs before Kona

There is another way to look at the Kona performance: in relation to the number of IMs athletes have raced before Kona:

Again, the light line with the data points show the actual data, and the darker line a best fit. (6 is actually a category representing 6 or more races. It won’t be a surprise that the athlete with the most was Peter Vabrousek with 11 IM-distance races between Kona 2012 and 2013.)

Again, the main information is relatively obvious:

• The more IM races you race, the more you’ll probably struggle in Kona.
• The ideal number of long distance races (outside of Kona) seems to be either one or two.

Implications

I think that there are a few implications for athletes that want to focus on their Kona performance:

• Avoid long-distance races close to Kona. (It’s just one data point, but I would think that Caroline is wondering what would have happened if she didn’t race MetaMan.)
• Try to qualify at the end of July if possible. (The best case scenario is probably Jordan’s 2012 season: Qualify late, then have a conservative Kona race to get some good points for the next season.)
• Make a decision whether to focus on Kona or one of the European and North American championships (Frankfurt in July, Mont Tremblant in August). As far as I know, with the exception of Chrissie Wellington we’ve never had the same athlete win both in Frankfurt and Kona.
• If you have enough points, just race an Ironman either in November („just validate strategy“) or in April/May, then have a focused Kona build. (This seems to be the strategy that Rinny feels very comfortable with.)

Unfortunately, this is a bit in conflict with the way WTC has set up the KPR system – late season big races, and the hectic August qualifying. In my opinion, this is not the best way to set up athletes for great Kona performances.

After Ironman Hawaii, I’ve updated my Top 10 Ratings and Course Ratings (in the menu bar). Here’s a short overview of the main changes in the Top10:

TOP 10 Rated Male Athletes

Almost all of the top-rated athletes are falling back a bit. With Crowie falling back to #3 after his disappointing Kona result, Andreas Raelert is again the only athlete in the #1 spot – but he hasn’t really claimed the top spot. The main person moving up the ranks is Frederik Van Lierde, he was 12th at the end of 2012 and is now tied for 6th.

TOP 10 Rated Female Athletes

For the lasts year my assessment was that Rinny had “inherited” the top spot after Chrissie’s retirement, but her fantastic Kona result made it clear that she has absolutely earned it by now. Yvonne and Rachel continue to move up in the ranks, with Caroline between them. New additions to the Top10 are British athletes Jodie Swallow and Liz Blatchford, with Julia Gajer (dropping to 17th after Wales) and Sonja Tajsich (dropping to 11th) they have ousted two German athletes.