Analysis

As in past years, Challenge Family and I have been working together on their Money List that is updated and sent out almost every week during the season. They also post the current Top 50 athletes on their website. I process the race results for them, including all Ironman and 70.3 races, the Challenge racing series, the highest level of ITU racing (the “World Triathlon Series” WTS) and a couple of independent races. This post has a closer look at the different segments and some overall trends for the 2019 season. (If there’s a segment missing that you’re particularly interested, please let me know and I’ll amend this post.)

Overview

First, here is an overview of the races that are included in the money lists and a comparison to the 2018 season. The total is shown in US$, for races that paid their prize purse in a different currency the amounts have been converted into US$.

Type	Description	Total Money	Change to 2018	# Races (2018)	# Athletes (2018)
Ironman	WTC Ironman-branded races	$2.467.000	-5,9%	32 (35)	277 (295)
70.3	WTC 70.3-branded races	$2.152.750	-4,1%	71 (71)	400 (385)
Challenge	Challenge-branded full and half-distance races (incl. Bonus Pool)	$ 909.586	-18,5%	27 (29)	208 (196)
ITU	ITU WTS races (incl. Bonus Pool)	$2.185.000	+/- 0%	9 (9)	115 (102)
SuperLeague	SuperLeague Professional Events (incl. Bonus Pool)	$ 904.800	n/a	4	58
Other	Port of Tauranga, ITU Long Distance Worlds, Alpe D’Huez L, Embrun, Tokyo Test Event, Gerardmer XL, XTerra World Championships, Noosa Triathlon, Laguna Phuket Triathlon	$ 624.877	n/a	9 (12)	163 (183)
Total		$9.244.013	n/a	151 (156)	769 (764)

A couple of observations:

• The decline in prize money paid out by WTC has continued in 2019. The number of full distances races has gone down and the prize purse shrank by almost 6%. Compared to 2015 the prize money in Ironman races has gone down from more than $2.9 million, a reduction of $454.000 or more than 15% in just four years.
• For 70.3s the number of races has stayed the same but the purses went down by more than 4% compared to last year. In 2015 there were fewer races but they paid out more than $2.4 million, a reduction of 11%.
• Challenge money has also come down this year. The bulk of the reduction comes from their flagship race in Roth which had a one-year increase of their purse to $200.000 (supplied by the PTO in 2018) and is now back at the old level of €62.000.
• The number of races and the prize purse in the “World Triathlon Series” has stayed the same between 2018 and 2019.
• SuperLeague is offering a significant amount of prize money, therefore I have broken them out as a separate category for the first time this year. (They used to be listed in the “other” category.) Roughly half of their prize money is paid out based on the overall ranking in the Championship Series.
• The races in the “Other” category are changing from year to year, therefore you can’t really compare the numbers for this category and the total money from year to year.

If you want to check out the 2018 lists, you can find them in my post “Deep Dive Into 2018 Triathlon Money List“.

Overall Money List

The overall list is dominated by athletes that have raced well in the “Big Money Races” like Kona, but with the introduction of the SuperLeague prize pool there are now better earning opportunities for the short course athletes. The 2019 list is topped by Katie Zaferes and Vincent Luis, the 2019 World Champions who have also won the SuperLeague Series. The Kona winners are in fourth and fifth place, they have been passed by Lucy Charles who has also raced well in the big Challenge races.

Most of the “additional” money from SuperLeague is concentrated on a select few athletes and the money to make it into the Top 20 has only  gone up slightly: Last year  Kirsten Kasper was 20th with $73,250, this year that amount would have been good enough for 24th place.

Photo: Katie Zaferes pushing the pace on the big leg at the WTS Grand Final in Lausanne. Credit: Tommy Zaferes

#	Name	Nation	Sex	Total	Ironman	70.3	Challenge	WTS	SuperLeague	Other
1	Katie Zaferes	USA	F	$347,500				$197,500	$150,000
2	Vincent Luis	FRA	M	$289,200				$143,200	$146,000
3	Lucy Charles-Barclay	GBR	F	$170,472	$90,000	$10,500	$69,972
4	Jan Frodeno	GER	M	$158,000	$150,000	$8,000
5	Anne Haug	GER	F	$138,000	$135,000	$3,000
6	Mario Mola	ESP	M	$130,300				$127,300	$3,000
7	Rachel Klamer	NED	F	$129,150				$44,150	$85,000
8	Jessica Learmonth	GBR	F	$119,400				$119,400
9	Henri Schoeman	ZAF	M	$115,467				$42,700	$66,200	$6,567
10	Javier Gomez	ESP	M	$114,300	$5,000	$21,000		$78,300		$10,000
11	Sebastian Kienle	GER	M	$102,428	$55,000	$9,000	$38,428
12	Georgia Taylor-Brown	GBR	F	$102,200				$102,200
13	Sarah Crowley	AUS	F	$101,783	$75,000	$15,000	$8,030			$3,753
14	Taylor Spivey	USA	F	$101,450				$72,150	$29,300
15	Cassandre Beaugrand	FRA	F	$100,850				$33,850	$67,000
16	Daniela Ryf	SUI	F	$100,818	$38,000	$58,000				$4,818
17	Kristian Blummenfelt	NOR	M	$92,700		$24,000		$51,700	$17,000
18	Gustav Iden	NOR	M	$92,600		$45,000		$41,600	$6,000
19	Radka Kahlefeldt	CZE	F	$91,227		$29,500	$60,334			$1,393
20	Holly Lawrence	GBR	F	$87,000		$87,000

WTC Races

The first “subcategory” of the Money List I want to take a closer look at is the money earned in WTC races (i.e. Ironman-branded and 70.3-branded races). This list is clearly dominated by athletes that did well in the two “biggest money races”, especially Kona. As in previous years the two top spots are occupied by the Kona winners Jan Frodeno and Anne Haug. Most of the athletes on this list have made the bulk of their 2019 prize money in WTC races. Notable exceptions are Lucy Charles and Sebastian Kienle who have also made money in Challenge races and Gustav Iden who has also raced short course.

Photo: Jan Frodeno on the run through the heat in Frankfurt. Credit: Ingo Kutsche

#	Name	Nation	Sex	WTC Money	IM	70.3	Total	Share
1	Frodeno, Jan	GER	M	$158.000	$150.000	$8.000	$158.000	100%
2	Haug, Anne	GER	F	$138.000	$135.000	$3.000	$138.000	100%
3	Charles-Barclay, Lucy	GBR	F	$100.500	$90.000	$10.500	$170.472	59%
4	Ryf, Daniela	SUI	F	$96.000	$38.000	$58.000	$100.818	95%
5	Crowley, Sarah	AUS	F	$90.000	$75.000	$15.000	$101.783	88%
6	Lawrence, Holly	GBR	F	$87.000		$87.000	$87.000	100%
7	O’Donnell, Timothy	USA	M	$69.500	$64.500	$5.000	$69.500	100%
8	Hoffman, Ben	USA	M	$68.500	$62.500	$6.000	$70.000	98%
9	Von Berg, Rodolphe	USA	M	$67.000		$67.000	$76.177	88%
10	Kienle, Sebastian	GER	M	$64.000	$55.000	$9.000	$102.428	62%
11	Lester, Carrie	AUS	F	$63.750	$59.500	$4.250	$66.044	97%
12	Jackson, Heather	USA	F	$53.750	$37.000	$16.750	$53.750	100%
13	Currie, Braden	NZL	M	$51.000	$48.000	$3.000	$54.420	94%
14	Moench, Skye	USA	F	$46.750	$30.000	$16.750	$46.750	100%
15	Adam, Teresa	NZL	F	$46.000	$46.000		$46.342	99%
16	Iden, Gustav	NOR	M	$45.000		$45.000	$92.600	49%
17	Brownlee, Alistair	GBR	M	$43.750	$18.000	$25.750	$43.750	100%
18	Skipper, Joe	GBR	M	$42.500	$42.500		$42.500	100%
19	Sodaro, Chelsea	USA	F	$40.750		$40.750	$40.750	100%
20	Nilsson, Patrik	SWE	M	$38.000	$30.000	$8.000	$38.000	100%

Ironman (outside of Kona)

When looking at a list just for Ironman races, it’s interesting to exclude Kona (as including Kona skews the rankings towards those that did well there). Without the Kona money, this list is dominated by multiple winners (or at least podium finishers), such as this year’s leader Carrie Lester, winner in France, Mont Tremblant and Cozumel.

Photo: Carrie Lester celebrates her win at IM France. Credit: Getty Images for Ironman

#	Name	Nation	Sex	IM Money	Total	Share
1	Lester, Carrie	AUS	F	$47.000	$66.044	71%
2	Adam, Teresa	NZL	F	$46.000	$46.342	99%
3	Hoffman, Ben	USA	M	$40.000	$70.000	57%
4	Ryf, Daniela	SUI	F	$38.000	$100.818	38%
5	Crowley, Sarah	AUS	F	$35.000	$101.783	34%
6	Currie, Braden	NZL	M	$34.000	$54.420	62%
7	Frodeno, Jan	GER	M	$30.000	$158.000	19%
7	Charles-Barclay, Lucy	GBR	F	$30.000	$170.472	18%
7	Moench, Skye	USA	F	$30.000	$46.750	64%
7	Nilsson, Patrik	SWE	M	$30.000	$38.000	79%
11	McCauley, Jocelyn	USA	F	$27.000	$33.000	82%
12	Skipper, Joe	GBR	M	$26.500	$42.500	62%
13	Russell, Matthew	USA	M	$22.500	$27.438	82%
14	Butterfield, Tyler	BMU	M	$21.500	$34.500	62%
15	Piampiano, Sarah	USA	F	$20.500	$37.250	55%
15	Starykowicz, Andrew	USA	M	$20.500	$37.881	54%
15	Weiss, Michael	AUT	M	$20.500	$31.500	65%
18	Van Berkel, Tim	AUS	M	$18.250	$32.000	57%
18	Frades Larralde, Gurutze	ESP	F	$18.250	$19.450	94%
20	Jackson, Heather	USA	F	$18.000	$53.750	33%
20	Brownlee, Alistair	GBR	M	$18.000	$43.750	41%
20	Plese, David	SLO	M	$18.000	$18.000	100%

70.3 (outside of 70.3 Championships)

Similar to the Ironman list above, leaving out the Championships shows athletes that have raced well across a number of 70.3s in the 2019 season. Most of the athletes in this list are focused on racing 70.3s. It is topped by Holly Lawrence, winner of four 2019 Regional 70.3 Championships in Dubai, St. George, Vietnam and Elsinore, and Rudolphe Von Berg, winner of three 2019 Regional Championships in St.George, Elsinore and Buenos Aires.

Photo: Holly Lawrence on the run at 70.3 Elsinore. Credit: Getty Images for Ironman

#	Name	Nation	Sex	70.3 Money	Total	Share
1	Lawrence, Holly	GBR	F	$67.000	$87.000	77%
2	Von Berg, Rodolphe	USA	M	$52.000	$76.177	68%
3	Sodaro, Chelsea	USA	F	$30.750	$40.750	75%
4	Carfrae, Mirinda	AUS	F	$29.000	$31.250	93%
5	Hering, Jacalyn	USA	F	$24.500	$24.500	100%
6	Reed, Tim	AUS	M	$24.250	$30.250	80%
7	Kahlefeldt, Radka	CZE	F	$23.000	$91.227	25%
8	Laundry, Jackson	CAN	M	$21.500	$22.819	94%
9	Pallant, Emma	GBR	F	$21.000	$45.954	46%
10	Findlay, Paula	CAN	F	$20.000	$25.000	80%
11	Salthouse, Ellie	AUS	F	$19.000	$26.868	71%
12	Appleton, Sam	AUS	M	$18.000	$26.000	69%
13	Oliveira, Pamella	BRA	F	$17.500	$21.500	81%
14	Moench, Skye	USA	F	$16.750	$46.750	36%
14	Piampiano, Sarah	USA	F	$16.750	$37.250	45%
14	Jackson, Heather	USA	F	$16.750	$53.750	31%
17	Sanders, Lionel	CAN	M	$16.000	$27.000	59%
18	Crowley, Sarah	AUS	F	$15.000	$101.783	15%
18	Gomez, Javier	ESP	M	$15.000	$114.300	13%
20	Starykowicz, Andrew	USA	M	$14.750	$37.881	39%

Challenge

Usually athletes leading the Challenge money list are focused on placing well in the Challenge Bonus Pool ($ 150.000 total). But this year’s Pool winners Pieter Heemeryck and Radka Kahlefeldt are “only” in second and third place, and the overall Challenge Money List is topped by Lucy Charles who won both of the best-paying Challenge races, Challenge Samorin and Challenge Roth.

Photo: Lucy Charles smiling on Solarer Berg. Credit: Challenge Roth

#	Name	Nation	Sex	Challenge Money	Total	Share
1	Charles-Barclay, Lucy	GBR	F	$69.972	$170.472	41%
2	Heemeryck, Pieter	BEL	M	$67.282	$72.782	92%
3	Kahlefeldt, Radka	CZE	F	$60.334	$91.227	66%
4	Bleymehl, Daniela	GER	F	$40.631	$54.631	74%
5	McKenna, Steven	AUS	M	$38.883	$40.883	95%
6	Kienle, Sebastian	GER	M	$38.428	$102.428	38%
7	Dreitz, Andreas	GER	M	$32.834	$42.584	77%
8	Roberts, Lisa	USA	F	$28.595	$33.845	84%
9	Dapena Gonzalez, Pablo	ESP	M	$26.652	$48.152	55%
10	Pallant, Emma	GBR	F	$17.454	$45.954	38%
11	Guillaume, Romain	FRA	M	$12.100	$23.654	51%
12	Curridori, Elisabetta	ITA	F	$10.324	$11.012	94%
13	Von Berg, Rodolphe	USA	M	$9.177	$76.177	12%
14	Wild, Ruedi	SUI	M	$9.063	$26.313	34%
15	Trautman, Matt	ZAF	M	$8.489	$13.489	63%
16	Van Vlerken, Yvonne	NED	F	$8.383	$8.383	100%
17	Ippach, Anja	GER	F	$8.259	$14.509	57%
18	Angert, Florian	GER	M	$8.145	$19.895	41%
19	Crowley, Sarah	AUS	F	$8.030	$101.783	8%
19	Jerzyk, Agnieszka	POL	F	$8.030	$14.780	54%
19	Clavel, Maurice	GER	M	$8.030	$15.030	53%
19	Svensson, Jesper	SWE	M	$8.030	$9.280	87%

WTS

The WTS Money List is a reflection of the order of athletes in the final WTS rankings, the top athletes are this year’s champions Katie Zaferes and Vincent Luis. Most of these athletes are focused on shorter distances, earning additional money in other short course races such as SuperLeague. The exceptions are Javier Gomez, Kristian Blummenfelt and Gustav Iden who have also earned some money in longer races.

Photo: Katie Zaferes winning the World Triathlon Series. Credit: Wagner Araujo | ITU Media

#	Name	Nation	Sex	WTS Money	Total	Share
1	Zaferes, Katie	USA	F	$197.500	$347.500	57%
2	Luis, Vincent	FRA	M	$143.200	$289.200	50%
3	Mola, Mario	ESP	M	$127.300	$130.300	98%
4	Learmonth, Jessica	GBR	F	$119.400	$119.400	100%
5	Taylor-Brown, Georgia	GBR	F	$102.200	$102.200	100%
6	Gomez, Javier	ESP	M	$78.300	$114.300	69%
7	Spivey, Taylor	USA	F	$69.350	$101.450	68%
8	Alarza, Fernando	ESP	M	$65.750	$65.750	100%
9	Birtwhistle, Jake	AUS	M	$59.450	$72.308	82%
10	Rappaport, Summer	USA	F	$56.250	$77.150	73%
11	Blummenfelt, Kristian	NOR	M	$51.700	$92.700	56%
12	Stanford, Non	GBR	F	$48.200	$51.600	93%
13	Van Riel, Marten	BEL	M	$43.150	$56.650	76%
13	Klamer, Rachel	NED	F	$43.150	$129.150	33%
15	Schoeman, Henri	ZAF	M	$40.800	$115.467	35%
16	Geens, Jelle	BEL	M	$36.350	$37.350	97%
17	Iden, Gustav	NOR	M	$35.600	$92.600	38%
18	Brownlee, Jonathan	GBR	M	$33.300	$83.700	40%
19	Beaugrand, Cassandre	FRA	F	$32.850	$100.850	33%
20	Bergere, Leo	FRA	M	$31.050	$45.150	69%

SuperLeague

This year’s SuperLeague rankings have been won by the dominating short-course athletes of the 2019 season, Katie Zaferes and Vincent Luis. With the big purse for the overall rankings, this list is quite top-heavy: Katie and Vincent have been earning around $150.000 from SuperLeague, but the earnings come down quickly – tenth place Ben Kanute has earned less than $20.000. However, it should be noted that SuperLeague also pays for travel and accommodations, so being invited to race a SuperLeague event is a monetary no-risk proposition for the athletes. This is quite different from other big races such as Kona where eleventh place is a good result but you fly home empty-handed and just with large expenses.

Photo: Katie Zaferes dives into one of the swim legs during SuperLeague Malta. Credit: Tommy Zaferes

#	Name	Nation	Sex	SuperLeague	Total	Share
1	Zaferes, Katie	USA	F	$150.000	$347.500	43%
2	Luis, Vincent	FRA	M	$146.000	$289.200	50%
3	Klamer, Rachel	NED	F	$85.000	$129.150	66%
4	Beaugrand, Cassandre	FRA	F	$67.000	$100.850	66%
5	Schoeman, Henri	ZAF	M	$66.200	$115.467	57%
6	Brownlee, Jonathan	GBR	M	$45.500	$83.700	54%
7	Wilde, Hayden	NZL	M	$35.000	$70.050	50%
8	Spivey, Taylor	USA	F	$29.300	$101.450	29%
9	Mislawchuk, Tyler	CAN	M	$27.000	$65.850	41%
10	Kanute, Ben	USA	M	$19.800	$39.700	50%
11	Takahashi, Yuko	JPN	F	$18.600	$35.300	53%
12	Le Corre, Pierre	FRA	M	$18.500	$31.450	59%
13	Blummenfelt, Kristian	NOR	M	$17.000	$92.700	18%
14	Rappaport, Summer	USA	F	$16.000	$77.150	21%
15	Bergere, Leo	FRA	M	$14.100	$45.150	31%
16	Periault, Leonie	FRA	F	$13.000	$24.950	52%
17	Gentle, Ashleigh	AUS	F	$12.800	$44.858	29%
18	Kasper, Kirsten	USA	F	$12.000	$14.200	85%
19	Murray, Richard	ZAF	M	$11.700	$22.700	52%
20	Schomburg, Jonas	GER	M	$8.900	$27.400	32%

Now that Kona Pro Qualifying has come to a close for 2019, it’s time to evaluate how the new qualifying system has worked for its first full season. This post compares the old to the new system and looks at some of the implications, giving data and evaluations on a couple of different aspects. I close with a few ideas on how to improve the current system.

Comparing the Outcomes

In order to compare the old points-based “Kona Pro Ranking” to the new slot-based system, I have applied the KPR system to the results of the 2019 racing season and looked at the resulting Kona fields. This section looks at the major differences that these two systems would have produced.

Simulating the 2019 KPR

There are a couple of details that make the comparison a bit tricky. Converting the new system to the old system is relatively straight-forward for Ironman races – the three categories of the KPR (Kona as P-8000, Regionals as P-4000, and regular IMs as P-2000) can be easily identified in the 2019 season. However, the distinction in the new system between races with just the regular two slots and the races with extra unassigned slots gets lost, but of course might have played a role in athletes deciding which race to tackle. Another small problem: For 70.3s, there have been four categories in the old KPR (Worlds as P-3000, Regionals as P-1500, and regular 70.3s as P-750 or P-500). There is no distinction between P-750 and P-500 in the new system, so I have put all of them in the P-500 category. One might do something trickier to determine the equivalents of P-750s (maybe based on which race was a P-750 in the season before), but that is unlikely to make a big difference in the overall rankings.

The following tables show the top-ranked athletes based on this simulation.

Top of the Female KPR

Rank	Name	Nation	Points	Races
AQ	Ryf, Daniela	SUI	17000	3+1 (2000/3000)
AQ	Charles-Barclay, Lucy	GBR	14400	2+2 (4000/500)
AQ	Crowley, Sarah	AUS	13400	3+1 (3400/1275)
1	Haug, Anne	GER	11310	2+2 (2000/400)
2	True, Sarah	USA	8735	2+2 (1600/135)
AQ	Carfrae, Mirinda	AUS	7920	2+2 (1670/500)
3	Piampiano, Sarah	USA	7715	3+1 (2000/625)
4	Sali, Kaisa	FIN	7460	2+1
5	Naeth, Angela	CAN	6705	3+1 (960/320)
AQ	Moench, Skye	USA	6380	2+2 (960/500)

Daniela’s total of 17.000 is quite unbelievable and will be very hard to beat. Her total is based on her win in Kona (8.000 points), a win at the North American Regionals in Texas (4.000 points), her win at the 70.3 Champs (3.000 points) and a win at IM Austria (a “paltry” 2.000 points). Wow!

Top of the Male KPR

Rank	Name	Nation	Points	Races
AQ	Currie, Braden	NZL	11965	3+1 (1280/1435)
AQ	Weiss, Michael	AUT	11280	3+1 (2890/1290)
AQ	Lange, Patrick	GER	10415	2+2 (515/400)
1	Aernouts, Bart	BEL	9830	2+2 (855/500)
2	Russell, Matthew	USA	8715	3+1 (1670/320)
3	O’Donnell, Timothy	USA	8015	2+2 (1280/400)
4	Hanson, Matt	USA	7890	3+1 (2000/400)
AQ	Frodeno, Jan	GER	7500	1+2 (4000/500)
5	McNamee, David	GBR	7395	2+1
6	Van Berkel, Tim	AUS	7315	2+2 (2240/400)

Athletes Qualifying Only Under the Slot System

Here’s a table that shows the women who snagged a 2019 slot but would have been outside the Top 35 ranks in the KPR and therefore wouldn’t have qualified for Kona:

Rank	Name	Nation	Points	Races
39	Philipp, Laura	GER	3000	1+2 (2000/500)
40	Derron, Nina	SUI	2940	2+2 (540/400)
42	Thoes, Svenja	GER	2800	1+2 (2000/400)
43	Kessler, Meredith	USA	2760	3+1 (540/400)
50	Spieldenner, Jennifer	USA	2560	1+2 (2000/240)
65	Riveros, Barbara	CHI	2100	1+1
67	Huse, Sue	CAN	2045	1+1
66	Bleymehl, Daniela	GER	2000	1+0
71	Bilham, Emma	SUI	2000	1+0
90	Mack, Danielle	USA	1355	1+1
113	Kunz, Martina	SUI	990	1+2 (720/135)

As usual, the “rank” column only looks at athletes who are “competing” for points-slots, i.e. without automatic qualifiers or those who didn’t race any full-distance Ironman races. Here’s the corresponding table for men outside the Top 50:

Rank	Name	Nation	Points	Races
55	Buckingham, Kyle	ZAF	2250	2+1
56	Peterson, Kennett	USA	2240	1+2 (1600/320)
57	Kraemer, Lukas	GER	2225	1+1
59	Tollakson, TJ	USA	2180	1+2 (1280/400)
60	Clarke, Will	GBR	2155	2+1
61	Viennot, Cyril	FRA	2155	2+2 (235/240)
62	Duelsen, Marc	GER	2065	2+1
65	Fontana, Daniel	ITA	2000	1+0
65	Hogenhaug, Kristian	DEN	2000	1+0
84	Schumacher, Stefan	GER	1670	1+0
89	Alonso McKernan, Clemente	ESP	1600	1+0
115	Silvestrin, Frank	BRA	1280	1+0

As expected, athletes who wouldn’t have qualified in a points system are those with “one big result” (winning an IM, e.g. Sue Huse who won IM Taiwan, Jen Spieldenner who won Louisville, or Kristian Hogenhaug who won IM Hamburg) or those who received a slot that rolled down quite far (e.g Martina Kunz, 5th in Hamburg, or Stefan Schuhmacher, 6th in Mar del Plata). This does not imply that these athletes don’t deserve to be in Kona – after all the system is what it is, and they probably would have raced more under a different qualifying system.

Athletes Qualifying Only Under the KPR System

Of course, there are also athletes who won’t be able to race in Kona 2019 but would have had the chance if the KPR system had still been in place. The following tables do not include athletes who didn’t qualify after declining their slots (such as Teresa Adam or Heather Wurtele):

Rank	Name	Nation	Points	Races
5	Naeth, Angela	CAN	6705	3+1 (960/320)
14	Oliveira, Pamella	BRA	5285	1+2 (1600/1500)
27	Duke, Dimity-Lee	AUS	3975	2+2 (1280/400)
28	Watkinson, Amelia	NZL	3875	1+2 (2455/500)
30	Hansen, Jennie	USA	3685	3+1 (720/30)
31	Lundstroem, Asa	SWE	3615	3+1 (565/240)

The same table for the male Pros:

Rank	Name	Nation	Points	Races
17	Burton, Matt	AUS	5015	3+1 (960/320)
25	Wild, Ruedi	SUI	3890	2+2 (1600/170)
28	Chevrot, Denis	FRA	3605	2+2 (720/500)
29	Long, Sam	USA	3620	3+1 (340/400)
32	Harvey, Jarrod	AUS	3270	2+0
36	Rodriguez Iglesias, Gustavo	ESP	2915	3+1 (540/135)
37	Blanchart Tinto, Miquel	ESP	2780	3+0 (540/0)
38	Wojt, Lukasz	GER	2740	2+2 (960/320)
39	Kappler, Blake	AUS	2695	2+2 (405/100)
46	Dirksmeier, Patrick	GER	2455	2+1
47	Kramer, Christian	GER	2425	3+1 (230/55)
49	Van Looy, Diego	BEL	2400	3+0 (720/0)
50	Huerzeler, Samuel	SUI	2390	3+0 (385/0)

These athletes fall into two different categories:

• Lots of Kona or 70.3 Worlds points from late 2018
  Pamella Oliveira was fourth at 70.3 Worlds in Port Elizabeth, then followed that up with three 70.3 wins (including the South American Regional Championships in Buenos Aires) and a second place at IM Brasil – unfortunately behind Sarah Piampiano who took the single female slot.
• Lots of good (but no great) results in 2019
  The “poster child” for this category is Matt Burton: A 3rd at Western Australia, a 4th at IM New Zealand and a 4th at IM Cairns were just outside the Kona slots – either by one or two spots. A last-minute effort at IM Sweden ended in a frustrating DNF and no Kona slot.

Athletes Impacted by the New System

Some athletes love to race a lot, regardless of “strategic choices” to qualify. For example, Matt Russell has done four long-distance races between April and July, and even though he secured a slot at IM Frankfurt, he followed that up with Challenge Roth (one week after Frankfurt) and a win at IM Lake Placid (just four weeks after Frankfurt).

But there were also athletes who had to adapt their race selection or race strategies in order to qualify. A few examples:

• Sarah True probably raced a bit harder in Cairns and Frankfurt knowing she needed a first or second to qualify, compared to a “solid finish” which would have secured her slot in a points system.
• Angela Naeth would have been safe for a Kona slot after her sixth place in Kona and a second place in Cozumel in November under the old KPR system. Instead, she was chasing a slot even while struggling with injuries, resulting in four unsuccessful attempts over the summer (three DNFs in Boulder, Canada and Tallinn, and a fourth place at IM Copenhagen).
• Braden Currie missed his Kona slot by one spot at IM New Zealand and thus was forced to also race IM Cairns. As he was racing Challenge Roth, he probably would have preferred to skip Cairns. (He DNF’d in Roth.)

Data on 2019 Racing

Gender distribution of Pro Slots

When the new system was announced, the “unassigned slots” were one of the main aspects discussed and how that would impact the number of male and female Pros in Kona. Here’s a look at the resulting numbers:

Season	Total	Male	Female	Female Quota
2016	99	57	42	42,4%
2017	92	54	38	41,3%
2018	92	53	39	42,4%
2019	101	56	44	43,6%

(The total for 2019 is currently higher as it shows the number of qualified athletes. That number will likely be a bit smaller leading up to the race with athletes withdrawing, typically there are at least five athletes who don’t race even though having accepted a slot.)

These numbers show that there hasn’t been a major change in females Pros racing in Kona.

Why are the hopes of more even slots still unfulfilled? Ironman will probably point to the reduced number of females starts: In 2018 34,7% of the Pro starters were females, that number has been reduced to 31,4% in 2019. Also, it seems that the Regional Championships were quite attractive for the females in the past: In 2018 38,3% of the starting Pros at the Regionals were female. (My guess is that because more points were available, it was a chance for female Pros to qualify with just one result.) The share of females in the 2019 Regionals was 32,0%, almost exactly the overall average. Therefore, most of the unassigned slots went to the male Pros (16 out 20), but the share of unassigned slots that went to the men (80%) is significantly higher than their share of Pro athletes (68,6%).

DNF Rate

When the new system was announced, there was some speculation about athletes dropping out who were looking for a slot but found themselves too far back. Here’s just one example of many:

However, looking at the DNF rates for the last few seasons, the DNF rate has hardly moved at all:

Season	Male Pros	Female Pros
2017	26,1%	16,1%
2018	24,8%	16,9%
2019	26,3%	16,5%

It is safe to say that the impact of the qualifying system on the DNF quota has been negligible.

Quantity of Racing

The next table lists the average number of races that the Kona participants did in the season before Kona. In order to make the periods comparable, I’ve used the ten months after Kona to the end of August qualifying  (e.g. for the 2018 season it’s races between October 15th, 2017 to August 19th, 2018).

Season	IMs	70.3s	Challenge
2017	2,02	2,47	0,51
2018	2,16	2,37	0,64
2019	1,72	2,06	0,69

There has been a noticeable decline in the number of races a Kona athlete has done under the new system. (While it’s quite likely that the new system was the major contributor to this decline, it’s probably best to also check next season’s numbers before making a final call.) This is most pronounced for Ironman races – which seems quite logical since when an athlete has qualified after one race, there is no need for additional racing. It also seems that this “slack” did not go to 70.3 racing which has also declined. Racing in events by the Challenge Family has slightly picked up but is still quite minor compared to Ironman-branded races for those athletes who go to Kona.

Suggested Modifications for the Qualifying System

As far as I can see, there are a couple of criticisms leveled against the new system:

1. Athletes who are “just outside” of a slot get nothing.
   There are two obvious examples for this: Matt Burton who has narrowly missed a Kona slot three times, and Sarah True who started at Zero even after a fourth place in Kona.
2. The unassigned slots still heavily favor the men, and the last-minute assignment based on starters leads to surprises on race day.
3. At some races, the slots rolled down quite far.

In order to address these points, here are a few elements for combining the old and the new system:

• “Win and you’re in” and Automatic Qualifiers
  I think these parts of the system have been working well and shouldn’t be changed. I would also keep the two minimum slots for the Regional Championships. At 25 Pro IMs per season – including 5 Regionals – this results in 30 slots each for the men and women plus the AQs for previous Kona winners, the current Kona podium and 70.3 Champions.
• Remaining Slots by a Points System
  Instead of the current “floating slots” that get awarded at different races, the remaining slots get decided by a points system similar to the old KPR. The number of slots could be adjusted based on how many total Pros there should be in Kona, with the current field size there would be about 24 additional slots.
• Assign Points Slots at the Start of the Season
  Instead of deciding on a per-race basis, the points slots get allocated at the start of the season based on the number of starters in the previous season. Based on 24 points slots and the 2018 female quota of 34,7%, it would result in 8 female and 14 male “base” points slots.
• No Rolldown of “winner’s slots” – these get added to the points slots
  If someone declines their slot or the winner doesn’t need a slot (e.g. when Daniela won IM Austria or when Jan and Sebi finished 1-2 in Frankfurt), the slot won’t roll down to the next finisher but instead get added to the points slots of their gender.
• Simplified points system
  Every race beyond the auto qualifiers is a P-2000 (2nd in a normal IM = 3rd in a Regional = 2000 points etc.). One could also include 70.3 champs in this points system (as the winner also gets an AQ slot, 2nd place = 2000 points), but I’d leave out other 70.3s. As before, there should be a maximum of three Ironman races that can be included in the total.

Even though this system would require a bit more admin work than the current system, I think it addresses all of the weaknesses of the current system mentioned above. To me, it seems a worthwhile change – what are your thoughts?

Here’s a look at how the Kona 2019 Pro field is shaping up.

With the changed Pro Qualifying system a number of athletes have already secured their place on the Kona start line, and a few more with Automatic Qualifier slots still need to validate with an Ironman finish but can also be reasonably certain to race in Kona this October. All the rest have to finish at the front of one of the remaining qualifying races.

Overview

Here’s a quick description of the categories in the following graphs:

• Qualified (the athletes in this category can be found on this page which is updated soon after each race)
  • Automatic Qualifiers
    Athletes with Automatic Qualifier slots (previous Kona winners, last year’s 70.3 winner, last year’s Kona podium finishers) that have already validated their slot with a finish in an Ironman.
  • Race Slots
    Athletes that have received a slot by winning a Pro Ironman race or finishing near the top.
• Not (Yet) Qualified
  • Upcoming Race (in the following graphs: Texas) – with a likely number of slots as some are unassigned to the male or female Pros
    Some of the athletes looking to win a slot in an upcoming race. (Athletes with an unvalidated AQ are also listed, but they won’t block one of the race slots.)
  • Automatic Qualifiers
    Athletes with an “AQ” that still have to validate by finishing an Ironman.
  • Notables
    Some other high profile athletes that have not yet secured their Kona slots. I have added some of their race plans (as far as they are known) – please let me know if some plans are incomplete or when someone is missing.
  • Unlikely
    Athletes that are unlikely to go for a Kona slot.

Graphical Views

 

(Click on the images for a hi-res version!)

Before the start of the 2019 long-distance racing season, here is a subjective list of trends and athletes to look for. I’m sure that there will be more athletes that are going to impact racing this year, so apologies in advance to anyone who isn’t mentioned!

Further Improvements

Last year’s post had a long list of athletes that were getting ready for their debut race on the IM distance. Some of them (e.g. Anne Haug, Sarah True) had great first seasons and huge results in Kona, some did well but maybe not quite as well as expected (e.g. Javier Gomez), some even struggled to qualify or even had to postpone their debut race and missed Kona qualifying (e.g. Emma Pallant or Laura Philipp).

The 2019 season is probably not going to see another influx of new names but rather a progression of athletes in their Ironman racing: Anne and Sarah have done well in Kona and will be looking to build on their Kona 2018 results. Emma will have to continue to work on her long-distance racing skills – it seems she still has to figure out proper race nutrition in order to do well in the last hour of racing. Laura has overcome her mid-season injuries and qualified for Kona 2019 with a new German fastest time in Barcelona.

In addition, there are athletes who made some progress in 2018 who will work hard for an even better 2019. Lucy Charles was already second in Kona twice, she’ll continue to work on closing the gap to Daniela and stay ahead of the rest of the field in Kona. Braden Currie and Joe Skipper have had great seasons and good Kona results, both are hungry to prove that last season’s results have just been an intermediate step. And Cam Wurf – while breaking bike course records whenever he raced – has also made solid progress on his run, closing the gap to the Kona podium from 21 minutes in 2017 to nine minutes in 2018.

Progress of the German Women

While the German men have been dominating in Kona for a number of years (five wins in the last five years), the German women haven’t been able to have similar successes. Last year I predicted two German women in the Kona Top 10, and with Anne Haug in third and Mareen Hufe in 13th that goal was almost reached.

Anne and Mareen continue to race this season (Anne just needs to validate her Kona slot with an IM finish and Mareen secured her Kona slot with a win in Malaysia), and there’s another increase in strong German women looking towards a good Kona result. Daniela Sämmler posted a German record in Roth 2018, then already qualified for Kona with a win at IM Italy in September.   (She’ll be racing as Daniela Bleymehl now after getting married shortly before Christmas.) Laura Philipp broke Daniela’s German record by winning IM Barcelona, and Svenja Thoes also won her IM debut in Cozumel. Anja Beranek (now racing again under her maiden name Anja Ippach) was fourth in Kona 2016, but she struggled in 2017 and 2018. After recovering from Mononucleosis, she is now being coached by Siri Lindley and is back to solid training for the 2019 season. Three recent moms are returning to IM racing, but Julia Gajer, Astrid Stienen and Kristin Liepold (née Möller) will need some more time to get in top shape. Nonetheless, things are looking quite for female IM-distance racing in Germany.

Coming Back From Injury

Last season saw two great “return from life-threatening injury” stories with Matt Russell and Tim Don, and it would be great to see these two celebrate even more great results in 2019.

This year we’re unlikely to see quite that dramatic stories, but there are a number of athletes that haven’t been able to show their full potential because they were struggling with injuries for parts of the 2018 season. Jan Frodeno had a fantastic season until September when he won every race he started, including IM Germany and 70.3 Worlds but then suffered from a hip stress fracture and wasn’t even able to start in Kona. He mentioned that another big win in Kona could have been his last race, so his 2019 is probably focused one more big bang in October. Terenzo Bozzone is another athlete who wasn’t able to race Kona after he was hit by a car and had to take some more time to properly recover from the injuries he sustained. By winning IM Western Australia he already punched his Kona ticket and indicated that his accident was hopefully just a short break of improving his Ironman racing skills. Ben Hoffman never really got his 2018 season properly going, a crash at Cape Epic kept him from racing well in South Africa, and before Kona he suffered from a stress fracture. Hopefully 2019 will see him return to the solid races he has had in the previous years, both in his qualifying races and in Kona. Boris Stein has finished in Kona Top 10 three times in a row between 2015 and 2017, but his season was disrupted just a few days before his target race IM France when he hit a cat in one of his last bike rides. He snagged a last-minute qualifying spot at IM Copenhagen, but didn’t feel good enough in his final Kona build and canceled his start. The final male athlete I want to highlight is Sebastian Kienle – after winning Challenge Roth which was the fastest 2018 time outside of Texas, an achilles niggle flared up in his Kona build, leading to a sub-standard bike and a DNF early on the run. He’s changed up a few things and I expect him to come back shooting for another Kona win this year.

There were also some athletes on the female side who didn’t have a consistent 2018 season as well. Mel Hauschildt recovered from her surgery to win IM Texas (her third Regional Championship on three different continents!) but then needed another surgery on her other leg and couldn’t race Kona. Annabel Luxford managed to qualify for Kona but also didn’t race – she seemed to struggle with chest infections and that had a major impact on her  Kona prep.

All of these stories are examples of the fine edge between “being fit and being f*cked” (as Sebi put it before Kona) and how one little thing – often without any “fault” of the athlete – can disrupt a whole season. Hopefully struggles in 2018 are going to be offset by a better 2019 season!

Who dominates in North America – USA or Canada?

The US has been dominating the early years of Ironman racing, but the most recent North American winners are from Canada: Lori Bowden and Peter Reid in 2003. That’s a long time ago, and it’s an interesting question where the next North American winners will be coming from.

On the men’s side, there have been podium results by US athletes Tim O’Donnell (third in 2015) and Ben Hoffman (second in 2014), but the closest to a Kona win was been Lionel Sanders who finished second in 2017. In 2018, the top North American finisher was again Tim O’Donnell but there is a strong contingent of Canadians we can expect to race well in Kona: Lionel will work hard to bounce back from his disappointing 2018 race, and Cody Beals has won both IMs he’s been racing so far. Brent McMahon is racing well in his qualifying Ironman races but hasn’t been quite figured out how to transfer that to Kona.

There is a similar rivalry on the female side: Heather Jackson has been the top North American finisher in Kona except this year, but with Sarah True another US woman finished fourth behind three Europeans. Linsey Corbin finished tenth, followed by Sarah Piampiano in eleventh place. Other strong American women include Meredith Kessler (still working on “getting Kona right”), Lesley Smith, Lisa Roberts, Jocelyn McCauley, Jodie Robertson and Lauren Brandon – all of these have the potential for an Ironman win during the season and a good Kona result. But Canada also had a Kona Top 10 finish this year (Angela Naeth in eighth place), and with Jen Annett, Kirsty Jahn, and Rachel McBride there are a few more promising athletes.

It looks to me that the US still has a few more athletes with Kona Top 10 potential, but things are pretty even when looking for the next North American Kona winner.

Photo Credits: All Photos © by Ingo Kutsche, used with permission.

Last year in March, I posted on the athletes I expected to have an impact on 2018 racing (see Who to Look for in 2018 Long-distance Racing):

Here’s a brief look back on how the 2018 season developed for the athletes I mentioned.

Athletes Stepping Up to Ironman Racing

• Emma Pallant
  Emma struggled a bit moving up to the longer distances. She DNF’d in her first IM in South Africa, then finished third at IM Austria, securing her Kona slot (another DNF). She had more success over the 70.3 distance, winning three races and finishing ninth in the 70.3 World Champs.
• Laura Philipp
  After three 70.3 wins at the start of her season, Laura had to cancel her IM debut that was planned for IM Germany when she had issues with her Achilles. She recovered in time for two more 70.3 wins and her first full Ironman which she smashed with a new German fastest time and a win at IM Barcelona.
• Anne Haug
  Anne had a good build-up to IM Germany where she struggled with a flat early in the bike and pacing issues on the run. She still finished fourth, just enough to get a Kona slot. After finishing third at 70.3 Worlds she raced Kona without any expectations. The race turned out extremely well for her when she was able to ride with a big bike group and then to have the fastest run of the day which allowed her to finish in third place.
• Javier Gomez
  Javier had a good first IM in Cairns when he finished sub-8 and in second after a close running duel with Braden Currie. He continued to race well on the 70.3 distance and was third at 70.3 Worlds after close racing with Jan Frodeno and Alistair Brownlee. His Kona race didn’t quite go according to plan when he lost some time with a flat in the last part of the bike and then didn’t quite have the run everyone (including himself) thought he had in him. After running just under three hours, he eventually finishing eleventh.
  For 2019/2020 he has announced a renewed focus on the shorter distances and the 2020 Olympic Games.

Returning Super Moms

• Mirinda Carfrae
  Rinny had a solid first season back: She raced (and won) a few 70.3s, validated her Kona slot with a second place at IM Cairns, then finished fifth in Kona. She also secured her place on the Kona 2019 start line by finishing IM Mar del Plata in early December. I think you can expect her to contend for the Kona podium in October 2019.
• Meredith Kessler
  Meredith had to race a lot for her Kona slot – she finished two full IMs and four 70.3s between April and August. She wasn’t able to “figure out Kona” (adding a DNF to her long list of disappointments on the Island) and also didn’t seem to be fresh for Arizona in November.
• Liz Blatchford
  Liz had an up (wins at IM Philippines and IM Mont Tremblant) and down season (more injuries), so she decided to end her career after Kona. Racing without expectations, finishing twelfth is a satisfying good-bye race for her.
• Jodie Cunnama
  Jodie had to focus this year on taking care of son Jack and supporting husband James, as a miscarriage made racing impossible. Hopefully 2019 is going to be a better year for her!
• Caroline Steffen
  Caroline took some time coming back, but she ended the year with a bang by winning IM Western Australia and securing a Kona slot. I’m sure she has her eyes on delivering another great race in Kona 2019.

The First Sub-4 Bike Leg?

• Andrew Starykowicz
  Andrew delivered the first sub-4 bike ride at IM Texas (3:54:59), at first not accepted by Ironman because of the slightly shortened course. A few days after the race Ironman accepted the Texas results as valid as a lot of other courses are also short. Still, there wasn’t much marshaling and a lot of Texas results are questionable because of drafting – something that is unlikely to have Andrew him as there isn’t much drafting at the front of the race and without motorbikes on the course.
• Cameron Wurf
  Cam Wurf set bike course records on every course he raced this year (including Kona), but instead of cracking the four-hour mark was probably more focused on improving his run and placing well overall.

Coming Back from Injury

• Mel Hauschildt
  Mel was able to win IM Texas with what is officially the IM-brand record, but the had more problems while racing 70.3 Philippines. It was determined that she needed another procedure to correct issues with her iliac artery, this time in her right leg. She had surgery in November 2018 and is hopefully recovering well to have a successful 2019 season.
• Angela Naeth
  Angela returned to IM racing in June at IM Boulder, but she had contracted Lyme’s disease and struggled to run well. After racing more IMs in the Netherlands and Sweden, she received a Kona slot in late September when her protest led to a DQ of two athletes in the Netherlands. She had a great race in Kona, finishing in eighth place.
• Tim Don
  After being forced to wear a halo after breaking his neck in Kona, Tim had a great Boston Marathon in April and also won his first 70.3 in Costa Rica. He was looking to add enough KPR points by racing IM Hamburg (9th) and IM Copenhagen (DNF) and was the final August qualifier when one slot rolled down. He tackled his Kona demons and was happy to race, finishing 36th.
• Matt Russell
  Matt is clearly the “comeback of the year”. After hitting a truck in the Kona race and almost bleeding to death, he was able to race IM Texas in April, but he still wasn’t fully healed quite yet. He missed qualifying even after podium finishes at IM Canada and IM Mont Tremblant, but he received a well deserved wild card entry by Ironman. In Kona he had a fantastic day, making up time on the bike and also having a great run, finishing in sixth place.

Regional Trends

• (Even) More Germans in Kona
  A number of top Germans struggled in Kona, Jan Frodeno wasn’t able to race at all and Sebastian Kienle DNF’d. Still, Patrick Lange was able to extend the “German Streak” of male winners since 2014. He was helped by Andi Dreitz who finished 13th, while Maurice Clavel also biked well but then fell back on the run to 19th place.
  Anne Haug – representing the German ladies – had a great result with her podium finish in Kona. Some other women had issues (see the section on athletes stepping up to the IM distance above), but there is a long list of promising athletes for 2019.
• The Big American Hope to Win Kona
  The list of great American Ironwomen had an interesting addition with Sarah True who finished second in Frankfurt and fourth in Kona in her first season of long-distance racing. Heather Jackson struggled in Kona but then went on to set a new US fastest time when winning IM Arizona. Other American ladies did well but didn’t quite have the great results they were looking for.
  The “old US guard” on the men’s side is still going strong, this year Tim O’Donnell, Matt Russell and Andy Potts finished in the Top 10, while Ben Hoffman struggled with two injuries and wasn’t able to race Kona. Beyond these four, there still isn’t a proven Kona contender. For example, Matt Hanson continued his string of great racing in Texas and frustrating Kona results (33rd this year).
• Scandinavian Ladies
  Once again, the top Scandinavian Kona finisher was Kaisa Sali, even though she was probably looking for more than seventh place. The other established Scandinavian ladies weren’t quite able to match her and finished well outside of the Top 10.
• Rule Britannia
  This year’s Kona race had some more good results for British athletes, with Lucy Charles and David McNamee repeating their second and third places from last year and Joe Skipper and Corinne Abraham also moving up into the Top 10. With all the success on the shorter distances, it seems likely we will see more British athletes doing well in the coming years.
• Aussie Aussie
  On the female side, the Aussies have had two Top 10 (Mirinda Carfrae fifth, Sarah Crowley sixth), while Cameron Wurf was the best Aussie male in ninth place. Another solid year for the Australians, but it doesn’t look as if they will be able to snag their next Kona win soon.
• Asians Starting to Close the Gap
  Ironman continues to work on their expansion in Asia and China, but the number of changing venues indicates that this is not an easy goal to achieve. We also haven’t seen any notable results by Asian athletes last season – the fastest IM finish was an 8:55 at IM Malaysia by Japanese athlete Kaito Toharo. It seems to me that the growth of races and athletes will feed off each other, and both will need a bit more time.