Challenge Roth

Note: Because of construction work, the bike was shortened this year to officially 170k. This explains the fast bike splits and finishing times in the table below. Just in case, I will not count the results as “official” fastest times on the IM distance.

Previous Winners

Year	Male Winner	Time	Female Winner	Time
2005	Chris McCormack (AUS)	07:58:45	Belinda Granger (AUS)	09:14:06
2006	Chris McCormack (AUS)	08:00:52	Joanna Lawn (NZL)	09:01:17
2007	Chris McCormack (AUS)	07:54:23	Yvonne Van Vlerken (NED)	08:51:55
2008	Patrick Vernay (NCL)	08:09:34	Yvonne Van Vlerken (NED)	08:45:48
2009	Michael Goehner (GER)	07:55:53	Chrissie Wellington (GBR)	08:31:59
2010	Rasmus Henning (DEN)	07:52:36	Chrissie Wellington (GBR)	08:19:13
2011	Andreas Raelert (GER)	07:41:33	Chrissie Wellington (GBR)	08:18:13
2012	James Cunnama (ZAF)	07:59:59	Rachel Joyce (GBR)	08:45:04
2013	Dirk Bockel (LUX)	07:52:01	Caroline Steffen (SUI)	08:40:35
2014	Timo Bracht (GER)	07:56:00	Mirinda Carfrae (AUS)	08:38:53
2015	Nils Frommhold (GER)	07:51:28	Yvonne Van Vlerken (NED)	08:50:53
2016	Jan Frodeno (GER)	07:35:39	Daniela Ryf (SUI)	08:22:04
2017	Bart Aernouts (BEL)	07:59:07	Daniela Ryf (SUI)	08:40:03
2018	Sebastian Kienle (GER)	07:46:23	Daniela Bleymehl (GER)	08:43:42
2019	Andreas Dreitz (GER)	07:59:02	Lucy Charles-Barclay (GBR)	08:31:09

Last Race’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Time
1	Andreas Dreitz	GER	00:51:28	04:13:12	02:51:11	07:59:02
2	Jesper Svensson	SWE	00:48:27	04:22:30	02:48:43	08:02:20
3	Cameron Wurf	AUS	00:54:38	04:15:53	02:50:37	08:04:08

Female Race Results

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Time
1	Lucy Charles-Barclay	GBR	00:49:01	04:39:20	02:59:42	08:31:09
2	Sarah Crowley	AUS	00:54:38	04:40:13	03:00:02	08:38:11
3	Daniela Bleymehl	GER	00:58:03	04:36:17	03:06:06	08:43:17

Course Records

Leg	Gender	Record	Athlete	Date
Total	overall	07:35:39	Jan Frodeno	2016-07-17
Swim	overall	00:43:35	Michael Pruefert	1997-07-13
Bike	overall	04:05:37	Cameron Wurf	2018-07-01
Run	overall	02:36:49	Luc Van Lierde	1997-07-13
Total	female	08:18:13	Chrissie Wellington	2011-07-10
Swim	female	00:46:48	Lucy Charles-Barclay	2018-07-01
Bike	female	04:31:29	Daniela Ryf	2016-07-17
Run	female	02:44:35	Chrissie Wellington	2011-07-10

Course Rating

The Course Rating for Challenge Roth is 20:11.

Race Adjustments for Challenge Roth

Year	Adjustment	Swim Adj.	Bike Adj.	Run Adj.	# of Finishers	Rating	Swim Rating	Bike Rating	Run Rating
2005	23:15	01:15	12:48	09:15	28	23:15	01:13	12:48	09:15
2006	18:52	01:43	10:48	05:54	41	21:04	01:42	11:48	07:34
2007	29:56	01:17	16:35	11:11	35	24:01	01:51	13:24	08:47
2008	25:59	02:33	12:13	10:36	40	24:31	02:11	13:06	09:14
2009	29:11	02:32	19:24	06:49	43	25:27	02:20	14:22	08:45
2010	20:31	01:03	11:13	07:23	43	24:37	02:16	13:50	08:32
2011	24:18	02:05	16:54	05:21	38	24:35	02:14	14:16	08:05
2012	14:09	02:40	06:58	04:27	50	23:16	02:18	13:21	07:37
2013	22:46	01:01	16:21	05:08	41	23:13	02:11	13:41	07:21
2014	08:34	00:24	12:32	-04:00	37	21:45	01:58	13:34	06:13
2015	19:21	01:34	12:55	04:45	44 of 56	21:32	01:57	13:30	06:05
2016	19:23	01:23	15:58	02:11	39 of 43	21:21	01:53	13:43	05:46
2017	14:36	00:26	13:33	01:05	38 of 53	20:50	01:44	13:42	05:24
2018	19:03	01:53	12:46	04:37	31 of 39	20:42	01:44	13:38	05:21
2019	12:56	-01:55	11:20	03:54	46 of 50	20:11	01:28	13:28	05:15

Prize Money

Challenge Roth has a total prize purse of 62.000 EUR, paying 10 deep.

Male Race Participants

The strength of the field is 25% of a typical Kona field.

#	Bib	Name	Nat	Expected	Rating	ESwim	EBike	ET2	ERun	Consistency
1	5	Patrick Lange (KQ)	GER	07:25:43	08:02:18	00:46:41	03:57:43	04:49:24	02:36:19	29% +39% -32% (7)
2	4	Sebastian Kienle (KQ)	GER	07:28:51	08:01:27	00:48:22	03:50:54	04:44:16	02:44:35	87% +0% -13% (19)
3	6	Braden Currie (KQ)	NZL	07:35:46	08:12:09	00:46:15	04:03:50	04:55:05	02:40:41	74% +8% -18% (13)
4	8	Franz Loeschke	GER	07:36:19	08:10:05	00:46:45	04:01:31	04:53:16	02:43:03	80% +0% -20% (4)
5	1	Andreas Dreitz (KQ)	GER	07:37:12	08:15:44	00:48:09	03:54:23	04:47:32	02:49:40	71% +0% -29% (7)
6	9	Pieter Heemeryck (KQ)	BEL	07:37:44	08:41:59	00:46:42	04:01:12	04:52:54	02:44:50	40% +42% -18% (3)
7	7	Nils Frommhold	GER	07:43:34	08:20:53	00:46:35	04:01:43	04:53:18	02:50:16	58% +0% -42% (14)
8	64	Justin Metzler (KQ)	USA	07:44:26	08:30:37	00:49:14	04:04:03	04:58:17	02:46:09	10% +75% -16% (5)
9	3	Nick Kastelein	AUS	07:46:51	08:26:20	00:46:00	04:04:18	04:55:18	02:51:33	45% +0% -55% (7)
10	60	Marc Duelsen	GER	07:52:29	08:26:52	00:50:36	04:05:24	05:01:00	02:51:29	86% +0% -14% (16)
11	190	Kevin Collington	USA	07:53:18	08:36:57	00:47:02	04:11:48	05:03:50	02:49:28	37% +16% -47% (7)
12	132	Sebastian Mahr	GER	08:01:00	08:46:00	00:48:03	04:18:39	05:11:42	02:49:18	100% +0% -0% (2)
13	24	Kevin Portmann (KQ)	FRA	08:03:17	08:50:19	00:55:00	04:08:16	05:08:16	02:55:01	44% +45% -11% (6)
14	67	Thomas Davis	GBR	08:03:56	08:45:24	00:46:56	04:16:18	05:08:14	02:55:42	43% +0% -57% (4)
15	21	Aliksandr Vasilevich	BLR	08:08:32	08:59:26	00:47:31	04:18:39	05:11:10	02:57:22	n/a (1 IM Pro race)
16	19	Tobias Heining	GER	08:08:37	09:00:49	00:48:41	04:17:43	05:11:24	02:57:13	n/a (1 IM Pro race)
17	158	Felix Hentschel	GER	08:18:02	09:14:49	00:53:51	04:15:40	05:14:31	03:03:31	28% +0% -72% (3)
18	14	Tom Oosterdijk *	NED	08:23:03	09:15:16	00:56:57	04:23:28	05:25:25	02:57:38	n/a (1 IM Pro race)
19	25	Sanne Swolfs	BEL	08:28:18	09:20:25	00:51:23	04:17:51	05:14:14	03:14:04	52% +0% -48% (2)
20	15	Till Schramm	GER	08:31:12	09:28:56	00:53:22	04:20:52	05:19:14	03:11:58	40% +7% -54% (13)
21	56	Robert Karas	POL	08:31:33	09:26:00	00:50:25	04:27:21	05:22:46	03:08:47	n/a (1 IM Pro race)
22	75	Jarno Piik	FIN	08:32:34	09:30:47	01:12:22	04:20:08	05:37:30	02:55:04	48% +0% -52% (2)
23	18	Mikita Hryhoryeu	BLR	08:34:51	09:24:09	00:51:07	04:32:46	05:28:53	03:05:58	60% +0% -40% (4)
	2	Ruben Zepuntke	GER	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	n/a (no IM Pro race)
	16	Chris Dels	GER	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	n/a (no IM Pro race)
	20	Joona Tuikka	FIN	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	0% +0% -100% (3)
	22	Silas Koehn	GER	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	n/a (no IM Pro race)
	27	Quentin De Vos	BEL	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	n/a (no IM Pro race)
	28	Tero Setola	FIN	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	n/a (no IM Pro race)
	29	Javier Perez Garcia	ESP	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	n/a (1 IM Pro race)
	30	Kevin Vabaorg	EST	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	n/a (no IM Pro race)
	219	Philipp Bahlke *	GER	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	n/a (no IM Pro race)

Note: Athletes with a ‘*’ are also registered for another race within 8 days.

Female Race Participants

The strength of the field is 36% of a typical Kona field.

#	Bib	Name	Nat	Expected	Rating	ESwim	EBike	ET2	ERun	Consistency
1	107	Anne Haug (KQ)	GER	08:12:17	08:47:22	00:51:16	04:27:42	05:23:58	02:48:19	80% +20% -0% (4)
2	101	Sarah Crowley (KQ)	AUS	08:22:17	09:06:18	00:51:32	04:24:31	05:21:03	03:01:14	70% +14% -16% (14)
3	729	Fenella Langridge (KQ)	GBR	08:24:35	09:16:43	00:50:30	04:21:04	05:16:34	03:08:01	n/a (1 IM Pro race)
4	102	Laura Siddall (KQ)	GBR	08:36:20	09:27:07	00:56:40	04:30:35	05:32:15	03:04:05	83% +7% -10% (23)
5	105	Sarah Piampiano (KQ)	USA	08:36:55	09:23:03	01:00:24	04:31:23	05:36:47	03:00:08	61% +12% -26% (29)
6	108	Kimberley Morrison (KQ)	GBR	08:46:59	09:26:52	00:53:50	04:25:23	05:24:13	03:22:46	76% +0% -24% (8)
7	103	Rach McBride (KQ)	CAN	08:48:39	09:32:15	00:51:27	04:30:00	05:26:27	03:22:12	89% +11% -0% (10)
8	109	Chloe Lane (KQ)	AUS	08:48:58	09:48:36	00:51:47	04:33:12	05:29:59	03:18:59	19% +60% -22% (3)
9	124	Tiina Pohjalainen	FIN	08:49:44	09:44:27	01:02:02	04:34:00	05:41:02	03:08:42	n/a (1 IM Pro race)
10	111	Jenny Schulz	GER	08:50:10	09:47:37	01:00:58	04:40:25	05:46:23	03:03:47	12% +42% -46% (7)
11	116	Hanna Maksimova	BLR	08:50:12	09:41:59	00:55:08	04:49:44	05:49:52	03:00:20	100% +0% -0% (2)
12	123	Heini Hartikainen	FIN	08:55:15	09:41:35	01:01:29	04:31:21	05:37:50	03:17:25	29% +51% -20% (4)
13	122	Dimity-Lee Duke	AUS	08:55:17	09:41:25	00:58:09	04:36:52	05:40:01	03:15:16	69% +3% -28% (20)
14	115	Ewa Komander	POL	08:57:12	09:48:27	00:55:35	04:38:52	05:39:27	03:17:45	63% +0% -37% (4)
15	741	Gabriella Zelinka	HUN	08:57:45	09:48:56	00:56:23	04:39:18	05:40:41	03:17:04	22% +47% -31% (5)
16	110	Bruna Mahn	BRA	09:02:41	09:51:52	00:56:02	04:51:25	05:52:27	03:10:14	72% +28% -0% (8)
17	113	Antonina Reznikov	ISR	09:07:08	10:04:07	01:11:40	04:37:02	05:53:42	03:13:26	42% +58% -0% (4)
18	112	Katharina Wolff	GER	09:11:04	10:02:07	00:57:18	04:52:11	05:54:29	03:16:35	100% +0% -0% (2)
19	118	Jenny Fletcher	CAN	09:19:38	10:12:55	00:55:45	04:50:15	05:51:00	03:28:38	73% +0% -27% (4)
20	117	Venla Koivula	FIN	09:23:43	10:22:39	01:03:13	04:40:35	05:48:48	03:34:55	4% +96% -0% (2)
	106	Elena Illeditsch	GER	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	n/a (no IM Pro race)
	120	Maja Betz	GER	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	n/a (no IM Pro race)
	737	Anna-Lena Best-Pohl	GER	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	n/a (1 IM Pro race)

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

• Patrick Lange: 46% (1-1)
• Sebastian Kienle: 39% (2-1)
• Braden Currie: 11% (8-1)
• Andreas Dreitz: 3% (31-1)

Female Race Participants

• Anne Haug: 54% (1-1)
• Sarah Crowley: 28% (3-1)
• Sarah Piampiano: 6% (15-1)
• Laura Siddall: 6% (16-1)
• Fenella Langridge: 4% (23-1)

Updates:

• August 26th: There are a lot of rumors about additional athletes racing in Roth after Kona has been canceled for October. An official start list won’t be released until Thursday before the race. There is going to be coverage of the race on German TV and also a stream with English commentary.

Prize Money

Challenge Roth has a total prize purse of 62.000 EUR, paying 10 deep.

Male Race Participants

Name	Nation
Kevin Collington	USA
Thomas Davis	GBR
Quentin De Vos	BEL
Chris Dels	GER
Marc Duelsen	GER
Pete Dyson	GBR
Nils Frommhold	GER
Tobias Heining	GER
Felix Hentschel	GER
Mikita Hryhoryeu	BLR
Robert Karas	POL
Nick Kastelein	AUS
Silas Koehn	GER
Sebastian Mahr	GER
Justin Metzler (KQ)	USA
Javier Perez Garcia	ESP
Jarno Piik	FIN
Kevin Portmann (KQ)	FRA
Toni Pystoe	FIN
Tero Setola	FIN
Chris Standidge	GBR
Sanne Swolfs	BEL
Joona Tuikka	FIN
Ilkka Utriainen	FIN
Kevin Vabaorg	EST
Aliksandr Vasilevich	BLR
Ruben Zepuntke	GER

Female Race Participants

Name	Nation
Maja Betz	GER
Sarah Crowley (KQ)	AUS
Dimity-Lee Duke	AUS
Jenny Fletcher	CAN
Heini Hartikainen	FIN
Elizabeth James	USA
Venla Koivula	FIN
Hana Kolarova	CZE
Ewa Komander	POL
Janien Lubben	NED
Bruna Mahn	BRA
Hanna Maksimova	BLR
Rach McBride (KQ)	CAN
Sarah Piampiano (KQ)	USA
Tiina Pohjalainen	FIN
Antonina Reznikov	ISR
Jenny Schulz	GER
Jodie Scott	AUS
Laura Siddall (KQ)	GBR
Kylie Simpson (KQ)	AUS
Miriam Van Reijen	NED
Katharina Wolff	GER

Prize Money

Challenge Roth has a total prize purse of 62.000 EUR, paying 10 deep.

Male Race Participants

Name	Nation
Josh Amberger	AUS
Cody Beals	CAN
Matt Burton (KQ)	AUS
Andreas Dreitz	GER
Jan Frodeno (AQ)	GER
Sebastian Kienle (AQ)	GER
Luke McKenzie	AUS
Timothy O’Donnell (KQ)	USA
Joe Skipper (KQ)	GBR
Jesper Svensson	SWE
Cameron Wurf (KQ)	AUS

Female Race Participants

Name	Nation
Lucy Charles-Barclay (AQ)	GBR
Sarah Crowley (KQ)	AUS
Anne Haug (AQ)	GER
Rachel McBride	CAN
Beth McKenzie	USA
Laura Siddall	GBR

Course Conditions

Compared to other years, 2019 was a slot year for Roth: A non-wetsuit swim for the Pros (very unusual for Roth) and wet roads after some light rain in the morning led to times roughly 6 minutes slower than last year.

Male Race Results

Jesper Svensson was the fastest swimmer, but a “group of three Andi/Andys” was lighting up the slippery bike course – not even allowing uber-biker Cameron Wurf to catch up to them. On the run, both Andy Potts and Andi Böcherer fell back, but Andi Dreitz had a great 2:51 marathon that allowed him to post the only sub-8 finish of the day and to take the win by three minutes.

Photo Credit: Ingo Kutsche

Jesper Svensson had the fastest swim of the day and fell back a bit on the bike, but then was able to move back into second place with a 2:48 marathon. Third place went to Cameron Wurf who posted a new run PB – his 2:50 marathon was 11 minutes quicker than last year and allowed him to hold the place he had in T2.

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Time	Diff to exp.	Prize Money
1	Andreas Dreitz	GER	00:51:28	04:13:12	02:51:11	07:59:02	-08:40	EUR 14,000
2	Jesper Svensson	SWE	00:48:27	04:22:30	02:48:43	08:02:20	-07:10	EUR 7,000
3	Cameron Wurf	AUS	00:54:38	04:15:53	02:50:37	08:04:08	-05:27	EUR 3,500
4	Bart Aernouts	BEL	00:56:11	04:17:57	02:47:49	08:04:48	-00:01	EUR 2,000
5	David McNamee	GBR	00:50:21	04:31:39	02:41:01	08:05:50	-02:33	EUR 1,000
6	Alessandro Degasperi	ITA	00:53:45	04:29:02	02:42:05	08:08:24	-10:30	EUR 900
7	Andy Potts	USA	00:50:20	04:17:43	02:58:20	08:09:39	01:16	EUR 800
8	Jens Petersen-Bach	DEN	00:51:38	04:30:12	02:48:08	08:13:01	-12:33	EUR 700
9	Matthew Russell	USA	00:57:23	04:25:35	02:52:06	08:18:11	04:41	EUR 600
10	Lukas Kraemer	GER	00:56:05	04:26:18	02:53:41	08:19:15	00:15	EUR 500
11	Christian Altstadt	GER	00:56:10		02:55:09	08:21:12	-10:04
12	Evert Scheltinga	NED	00:51:34	04:30:04	02:58:01	08:22:39	05:35
13	Pete Dyson	GBR	00:57:47	04:28:48	02:57:01	08:26:26	-18:04
14	Markus Hoermann	GER	00:56:06	04:26:51	03:03:31	08:29:02	04:12
15	Michael Kalb	GER	00:53:37	04:37:31	03:02:23	08:36:44	n/a
16	Johannes Moldan	GER	00:56:03	04:29:02	03:10:04	08:37:58	00:44
17	Jef Van Meirhaeghe	BEL	00:58:49	04:26:26	03:09:06	08:38:14	n/a
18	Carson Christen	USA	00:54:08	04:40:47	03:02:50	08:40:40	-14:00
19	Alexander Siegmund	GER	01:00:20	04:36:40	03:00:42	08:40:57	n/a
20	Simon Schwarz	GER	00:58:28	04:34:20	03:06:00	08:41:54	-11:37
21	Juan Bautista Nadal Clar	ESP	00:57:40	04:45:08	02:57:11	08:42:57	n/a
22	Rodrigo Romero Garcia de la Cadena	MEX	00:56:08	04:50:07	03:02:09	08:53:07	n/a
23	Guy Crawford	NZL	00:51:35	04:39:17	03:27:32	09:02:35	10:41
24	Benjamin Pernet	FRA	00:49:40	04:33:54	03:35:37	09:03:10	02:25
25	Douglas MacLean	USA	01:01:46	04:57:55	02:57:20	09:04:45	01:49
26	David Sharman	GBR	00:57:49	04:49:39	03:13:23	09:05:12	n/a
27	Simon Billeau	FRA	00:58:12	04:23:59	03:51:32	09:17:25	32:19
28	Thomas Naasz	NED	01:02:02	04:56:22	03:20:33	09:22:01	18:26
29	Andi Boecherer	GER	00:51:34	04:13:11	04:27:42	09:35:40	1:38:50
30	Luiz Feliz	ESP	01:07:37	04:58:20	04:14:17	10:25:44	1:34:43
	Braden Currie	NZL	00:50:16	04:28:13		DNF
	Marcus Woellner	GER	00:51:37	04:36:49		DNF
	Vicenc Castella Serra	ESP	01:01:58			DNF

Female Race Results

On the female side, it was Lucy Charles who had an all-around good day, posting the fastest swim (of course!) and also the fastest run – er 2:59 was her first sub-3 marathon in a full-distance race. (She was ten seconds quicker at the shortened-swim IM South Africa earlier this year.) She was delighted to claim the top spot this year after finishing second last year.

Photo Credit: Ingo Kutsche

Sarah Crowley was losing time to Lucy in all three legs but was able to claim a solid second, posting a new personal best overall and on the marathon and claiming second place. Just a week after her DNF in Frankfurt, Daniela Bleymehl also posted a new PR (15 seconds quicker than last year’s winning time in Roth). She was working hard on the second loop of the bike to make up time to the Lucy and maybe put some ground between her and the stronger runners in her group. A solid 3:06 marathon saw her finish on the final podium spot.

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Time	Diff to exp.	Prize Money
1	Lucy Charles-Barclay	GBR	00:49:01	04:39:20	02:59:42	08:31:09	-18:00	EUR 14,000
2	Sarah Crowley	AUS	00:54:38	04:40:13	03:00:02	08:38:11	-16:21	EUR 7,000
3	Daniela Bleymehl	GER	00:58:03	04:36:17	03:06:06	08:43:17	-22:42	EUR 3,500
4	Agnieszka Jerzyk	POL	00:54:41	04:42:59	03:08:17	08:48:49	n/a	EUR 2,000
5	Carolin Lehrieder	GER	00:54:36	04:40:26	03:17:13	08:55:13	-25:57	EUR 1,000
6	Rachel McBride	CAN	00:54:29	04:43:46	03:24:50	09:06:47	-18:51	EUR 900
7	Els Visser	NED	00:58:21	04:49:10	03:17:31	09:07:49	-16:15	EUR 800
8	Anja Ippach	GER	00:54:33	04:42:53	03:43:14	09:23:58	09:54	EUR 700
9	Lina-Kristin Schink	GER	01:11:31	04:52:25	03:18:23	09:27:41	-21:07	EUR 600
10	Tara Grosvenor	GBR	01:02:57	05:05:28	03:17:09	09:29:01	n/a	EUR 500
11	Antonina Reznikov	ISR	01:18:57	04:54:19	03:13:19	09:31:16	-26:58
12	Vanessa Pereira	POR	01:08:30	05:01:06	03:22:43	09:37:59	-34:47
13	Gemma Frost	GBR	00:58:24	05:03:05	03:38:44	09:44:33	n/a
14	Simona Krivankova	CZE	01:08:21	05:17:17	03:15:38	09:46:09	14:51
15	Kristin Lie	NOR	01:11:35	05:35:04	03:34:34	10:25:37	20:20
16	Kate Bevilaqua	AUS	00:58:33	05:26:41	05:00:40	11:33:22	1:31:42
	Lisa Roberts	USA	01:08:57			DNF

Based on my seedings for Roth, I discuss the chances of the main athletes and how this year’s race for the Roth titles might develop.

Female Race

Here’s a look at some of the athletes in the female race:

• Similar to last year, Lucy Charles will be in the lead for most of the time. She should have a lead of about five minutes after the swim, and that lead should be pretty much unchanged for the rest of the day. Will she be able to take the win in Roth this year?
• Behind Lucy, there are (at least) two strong bike riders: Sarah Crowley and Anja Ippach. It’ll be interesting to see if they will be able to eat into Lucy’s lead on the bike and also on the run. On the run, Sarah is the strongest based on previous results, but based on paper she should be able to take back more than a few minutes from Lucy. But I also didn’t expect anyone to challenge Lucy in last year’s race …
• There are some more solid swim/bikers in the race: Rachel McBride, Carolin Lehrieder and Els Visser might join the main chasers on the bike after a good swim. But all of them would also need a breakthrough run to be able to contend for a podium slot.
• The best runner in the field is probably Lisa Roberts, she could run well under three hours. But typically she is far behind the action after the swim and bike, probably around 30 minutes behind Lucy in T2. But you can expect Lisa to run through the field and when other athletes struggle, maybe even put herself into podium contention late in the run.

Update July 5th: Defending champion Daniela Bleymehl has announced that she will also start Roth 2019. Expect her to swim and bike at a similar level to Sarah Crowley and Anja Ippach before it’ll probably come down to who’s going to have the best run legs.

Male Race

As is typical, the men’s race in Roth is expected to be a lot tighter.

Here’s an overview of what might happen:

• With the number of athletes, the swim in Roth doesn’t break up quite as much as other, tougher swims. So even though on paper there are around four minutes between the fastest swimmer (probably Jesper Svensson) and Cam Wurf, the gaps might be a lot smaller or Cam (with an improved swim) might even be able to stay with the front group as he was able to last year.
• With the hot temperatures in Germany and some issues with the close-by lock (that usually mixes in some cold ground water into the canal), the swim is likely going to be non-wetsuit – typically favoring the stronger swimmers.
• On the bike, there are three athletes that are nominally a good deal faster than the rest of the field: Andi Böcherer, Andi Dreitz and Cam Wurf should build a gap of almost ten minutes to the rest of the field. Tactics will play a role whether there’s going to be a lead group (and for how long), if everyone will be riding on their own or if someone else decides to go with the front group.
• Among these three, Andi Böcherer should be the strongest runner, and I expect him to run well under 2:50 in Roth. But Andi Dreitz and especially Cam Wurf will want to show that their Ironman marathon has improved since last year: Andi D ran a 2:50 to take second place, Cam’s 3:01 saw him drop back into fifth place after leading in T2.
• The stronger runners in the field will have to work hard on the bike in order to keep the gap to the front in manageable dimensions. It’ll take a huge effort even by strong runners such as Braden Currie, Bart Aernouts or David McNamee to put much more than five minutes into Andi B, but even when they are ten minutes back in T2 they’ll still be in the mix for a top finish. Expect some late changes in the podium ranks!