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Ironman Canada 2016 – Analyzing Results

Race Conditions

After last year’s rain and cold (and corresponding slow times), this year’s race in Whistler was much quicker in all three legs. Andy Potts posted new swim and bike course records, but even though he ran a sub-3 marathon it was pretty obvious that he wasn’t going for the overall course record.

Kona Qualifying Implications

A lot of athletes were looking for a final push in their KPR total. Andy Potts, Pedro Gomes and Trevor Wurtele secured their slots. For the full rankings at the end of July, check out my post on the July cutoff.

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to expected Prize Money
1 Andy Potts USA 00:47:03 04:31:07 02:58:19 08:20:23 02:05 US$ 20000
2 Pedro Gomes POR 00:49:52 04:40:55 02:53:18 08:27:31 -08:40 US$ 10000
3 Trevor Wurtele CAN 00:49:50 04:41:17 02:55:53 08:30:25 -11:49 US$ 6500
4 Justin Daerr USA 00:50:25 04:48:07 02:56:16 08:38:12 -02:18 US$ 4000
5 Mike Aigroz SUI 00:50:05 04:42:51 03:04:01 08:40:24 -00:36 US$ 3000
6 Elliot Holtham CAN 00:50:08 04:48:51 03:04:10 08:46:48 -22:06 US$ 2000
7 Derek Garcia USA 00:52:47 04:44:40 03:10:25 08:51:10 -03:21 US$ 1500
8 Maik Twelsiek GER 00:50:07 04:44:00 03:24:32 09:02:22 29:39 US$ 1250
9 Dylan Gleeson CAN 00:54:30 04:49:47 03:15:22 09:02:51 -17:21 US$ 1000
10 Scott Bradley USA 01:01:37 05:02:39 03:23:37 09:32:17 13:47 US$ 750
11 Matthew Sheeks USA 01:01:27 05:06:16 03:29:24 09:41:09 13:53
12 Nathan Champness CAN 00:54:36 05:12:43 04:00:46 10:14:00 1:05:41
Callum Millward NZL 00:50:03 04:46:54 DNF
Jeff Manson CAN 00:52:58 04:53:11 DNF
Anthony Toth CAN 00:55:07 05:07:27 DNF

Ironman Lake Placid 2016 – Analyzing Results

Race Conditions

With only a few previously rated finishers, the data is not very conclusive but quite in line with the previous Pro races there have been in Lake Placid: a course rating of -3:34 and slow across all three legs.

Heather Jackson had a great day, smashing both the bike course record  (previously held by Amy Marsh from 2010) and the overall course record (previously held by Heather Wurtele from 2011) by ten minutes.

Kona Qualifying Implications

Heather Jackson validated her Kona slot by winning the race, and Alicia Kaye who was in all likelihood safe before the race finished third, gaining some more IM racing experience. For the full rankings at the end of July, check out my post on the July cutoff.

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to expected Prize Money
1 Heather Jackson USA 01:00:22 04:57:36 03:07:00 09:09:42 -18:35 US$ 20000
2 Annah Watkinson ZAF 00:59:41 05:21:17 03:18:45 09:45:00 -08:22 US$ 10000
3 Alicia Kaye USA 00:54:25 05:24:38 03:28:39 09:53:31 n/a US$ 6500
4 Beth Shutt USA 01:01:28 05:29:34 03:40:05 10:17:00 14:57 US$ 4000
5 Nicole Valentine USA 01:05:14 05:56:29 03:23:59 10:33:44 n/a US$ 3000
6 Caroline Martineau CAN 01:05:06 05:41:00 03:42:35 10:34:49 -04:46 US$ 2000
7 Erin Green USA 01:04:43 05:46:04 03:39:40 10:36:54 n/a US$ 1500
8 Neilia Bliss USA 01:07:09 05:45:43 03:42:11 10:41:42 20:10 US$ 1250
9 Kate Bruck USA 01:04:10 05:50:39 03:52:58 10:54:08 31:46 US$ 1000
10 Christine Avelar USA 01:01:03 05:58:47 04:15:27 11:23:54 40:26 US$ 750
Rachel Jastrebsky USA 01:01:45 05:27:28 DNF
Amber Ferreira USA 01:00:21 DNF

Ironman Switzerland 2016 – Analyzing Results

Race Conditions

This year’s course in Zürich had a new run course, but the impact on the course rating has been minimal (run adjustment of -0:15, new run course rating of 0:14). Overall conditions have been typical as well, if anything the non-wetsuit swim for the Pros was a bit slower and the bike was a bit faster than in previous years.

Even without being aided by fast conditions, there were a few course records. Just one week after winning Challenge Roth with a fantastic 8:22, Daniela Ryf also won IM Switzerland (posting a new record for the shortest time between long-distance triathlon wins) in sub-9, beating the old course record by Karin Thürig from 2010 by almost ten minutes. (Karin’s bike course record still stands.) In addition Roman Deisenhofer set a new male bike course record of 4:26:15, improving the old time of 4:27:42 by Ronnie Schildknecht from 2012.

Kona Qualifying Implications

A lot of athletes were looking for a final push in their KPR total. Ronnie Schildknecht, Timo Bracht, Jan Van Berkel and David Plese secured a July slot, on the women’s side Emma Bilham and Ariane Monticelli are also safe. Daniela validated her Automatic Qualifier spot with the IM Switzerland win.

For the full rankings at the end of July, check out my post on the first July cutoff.

Male Race Results

Ronnie Schildknecht had a strong bike ride and an even better run to win his 9th IM Switzerland. Timo Bracht had a solid race including a strong run to finish second. Jan Van Berkel tried his best to go with Ronnie Schildknecht on the run, almost ran himself into the ground but still finished with a sub-3 run in third place.

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to expected Prize Money
1 Ronnie Schildknecht SUI 00:55:39 04:31:01 02:47:07 08:17:04 -09:10 US$ 10000
2 Timo Bracht GER 00:53:17 04:33:02 02:54:34 08:24:13 02:44 US$ 5000
3 Jan Van Berkel SUI 00:52:56 04:33:37 02:59:23 08:29:12 -16:28 US$ 3250
4 Roman Deisenhofer GER 00:55:41 04:26:15 03:07:08 08:32:58 -25:07 US$ 2500
5 David Plese SLO 00:55:53 04:44:12 02:52:46 08:36:50 -02:10 US$ 1750
6 Mauro Baertsch SUI 00:57:48 04:43:30 02:51:20 08:36:55 -14:08 US$ 1250
7 Christian Brader GER 00:59:10 04:46:56 02:58:54 08:49:07 -02:35 US$ 750
8 Patrick Jaberg SUI 00:57:50 04:42:01 03:05:16 08:49:39 -07:09 US$ 500
9 Mike Schifferle SUI 01:01:43 04:41:53 03:00:21 08:50:28 -09:42
10 Darby Thomas FIN 01:03:47 04:45:24 03:12:40 09:06:08 22:25
11 Nicholas Chase USA 00:55:44 04:43:49 03:36:53 09:21:06 -01:43
12 Ivan Jezko SVK 01:03:57 04:57:30 03:37:55 09:44:54 14:01
13 Jan Hron CZE 01:07:59 05:18:21 03:16:57 09:48:23 n/a
14 Sebastian Pedraza ITA 01:01:51 05:06:07 03:46:27 09:58:35 49:45
15 Lukas Polan CZE 01:12:05 05:28:14 03:41:53 10:27:15 39:08
16 Gilian Oriet SUI 01:01:55 05:03:19 04:33:12 10:43:05 57:03
Philipp Koutny SUI 00:55:37 04:31:04 DNF
Markus Fachbach GER 00:55:02 04:33:26 DNF
Manuel Kueng SUI 00:50:41 04:44:21 DNF
Fabio Carvalho BRA 00:53:05 04:44:45 DNF
David Naesvik SWE 00:57:59 04:46:26 DNF
Matthias Epping GER 00:55:48 04:48:45 DNF
Emanuele Ciotti ITA 00:55:55 04:55:14 DNF
Johan Kaerner SWE 01:01:48 04:55:40 DNF
Cyril Pochon FRA 00:55:18 05:10:48 DNF
Martin Charles FRA 00:55:47 05:12:06 DNF
Marek Nemcik SVK 01:15:51 06:15:30 DNF
Balazs Csoke HUN 00:49:53 DNF
Gergö Molnar HUN 00:53:02 DNF
Fraser Cartmell GBR 00:53:12 DNF

Female Race Results

Daniela Ryf swam with Celine Schärer, one of the fastest Ironman swimmers, then rode away on the bike and controlled her effort on the run. Second place went to Emma Balham with a strong bike and solid run – her second second place in her second Ironman. Michi Herlbauer was working hard all day taking the last spot on the podium.

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to expected Prize Money
1 Daniela Ryf SUI 00:53:16 04:46:30 03:07:31 08:51:50 -00:55 US$ 10000
2 Emma Bilham SUI 00:57:41 05:03:58 03:16:36 09:21:48 -06:31 US$ 5000
3 Michaela Herlbauer AUT 01:01:05 05:07:02 03:15:37 09:28:12 04:14 US$ 3250
4 Celine Schaerer SUI 00:53:14 05:13:07 03:24:57 09:35:26 07:08 US$ 2500
5 Ariane Monticeli BRA 01:03:58 05:11:16 03:20:05 09:40:07 -01:18 US$ 1750
6 Karen Thibodeau CAN 00:56:53 05:15:47 03:23:25 09:40:38 -10:23 US$ 1250
7 Corina Hengartner SUI 01:05:10 05:14:01 03:22:31 09:46:19 -17:50 US$ 750
8 Alyssa Godesky USA 01:03:20 05:16:53 03:22:15 09:47:20 -24:35 US$ 500
9 Natascha Badmann SUI 01:05:08 05:02:18 03:35:03 09:47:21 16:30
10 Kristin Moeller GER 01:12:24 05:24:31 03:09:51 09:52:16 19:05
11 Diane Luethi SUI 00:58:02 05:21:36 03:38:07 10:02:48 n/a
12 Petra Krejcova CZE 01:03:48 05:21:40 03:40:09 10:09:43 09:42
13 Regula Rohrbach SUI 01:01:36 05:03:04 04:02:25 10:12:53 29:03
14 Jana Candrova CZE 01:13:13 05:29:54 03:36:43 10:25:34 -01:28
Lauren Parker AUS 00:55:10 05:37:20 DNF
Lauren Capone USA 00:59:07 05:34:42 DNF

Ironman Vineman 2016 (July 31st) – Predictions

IMVineman

This is the first time this race is organized by the Ironman brand. There was a Pro category in prior years, but results are hard to find and I haven’t included them in my analysis. All time predictions are based on a “neutral” course.

KPR points and Prize Money

IM Vineman is a P-2000 race. It has a total prize purse of 50.000 US$.

Male Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Consistency Overall
1 3 Richie Cunningham AUS 08:35:04 08:47:12 00:49:19 04:38:40 03:02:05 50% +0% -50% (3) (78)
2 4 Kyle Buckingham ZAF 08:40:53 08:39:09 00:49:13 04:41:38 03:05:01 68% +0% -32% (9) 53
3 7 Pedro Gomes POR 08:42:27 08:40:43 00:52:07 04:47:56 02:57:24 65% +5% -30% (22) 57
4 5 Barrett Brandon USA 08:45:00 08:45:09 00:47:50 04:50:57 03:01:13 60% +0% -40% (5) 69
5 2 Chris McDonald AUS 08:49:54 08:46:30 00:53:33 04:46:41 03:04:40 62% +8% -30% (41) 76
6 17 Jonathan Shearon USA 08:50:54 08:55:08 00:53:37 04:44:15 03:08:02 57% +12% -31% (13) 102
7 6 Thomas Gerlach USA 08:53:14 09:01:16 00:54:07 04:44:00 03:10:06 39% +11% -51% (21) 131
8 8 Guy Crawford NZL 09:06:36 09:14:38 00:49:02 04:44:46 03:27:48 27% +37% -36% (12) 183
9 19 Jesse Vondracek USA 09:16:48 09:27:55 00:55:22 05:02:51 03:13:35 66% +24% -11% (16) 219
10 13 Colin Laughery USA 09:19:07 09:24:45 01:00:01 05:00:51 03:13:15 100% +0% -0% (2) (209)
11 14 James Lubinski USA 09:23:03 09:31:31 01:02:16 05:03:31 03:12:16 44% +25% -31% (16) 231
12 15 Douglas MacLean USA 09:23:20 09:25:51 00:58:04 05:08:26 03:11:50 83% +5% -12% (13) 210
13 12 Andrew Langfield USA 09:44:27 09:56:12 00:57:41 05:21:00 03:20:46 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (269)
14 18 Jorge Vazquez MEX 10:05:15 10:17:24 00:53:52 05:14:51 03:51:32 42% +0% -58% (3) (287)
15 16 Sergio Quezada MEX 10:07:42 10:11:28 00:52:36 05:16:40 03:53:26 69% +10% -22% (12) 283
1 Max Biessmann USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
9 Ivan Dominguez USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
10 Rafael Goncalves BRA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
11 Nicholas Granet FRA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)

Female Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Consistency Overall
1 27 Heather Jackson USA 09:22:49 09:24:12 00:58:52 05:08:02 03:10:56 19% +56% -25% (4) 20
2 26 Mary Beth Ellis USA 09:23:06 09:17:57 00:51:16 05:05:52 03:20:59 93% +0% -7% (17) 13
3 25 Sarah Piampiano USA 09:28:31 09:32:17 01:02:46 05:10:08 03:10:37 41% +47% -12% (14) 36
4 29 Amanda Stevens USA 09:30:01 09:30:05 00:51:32 05:15:40 03:17:50 60% +21% -19% (17) 28
5 30 Ariane Monticeli BRA 09:41:54 09:44:05 01:01:58 05:25:27 03:09:30 55% +27% -18% (14) 59
6 41 Darbi Roberts USA 09:44:37 09:58:31 00:52:49 05:21:32 03:25:15 37% +0% -63% (5) 89
7 37 Mackenzie Madison USA 09:46:40 09:49:32 00:58:36 05:20:08 03:22:56 69% +0% -31% (11) 64
8 28 Kate Bevilaqua AUS 09:57:22 10:05:04 00:55:58 05:24:55 03:31:30 26% +7% -67% (26) 99
9 39 Leslie DiMichele Miller USA 09:58:28 10:00:27 00:59:15 05:32:23 03:21:50 100% +0% -0% (3) 93
10 38 Jocelyn McCauley USA 10:04:46 10:23:05 00:59:27 05:30:31 03:29:49 41% +0% -59% (4) (137)
11 34 Caroline Gregory USA 10:13:13 10:25:09 00:56:01 05:42:40 03:29:32 48% +7% -45% (13) 148
12 42 Jessica Smith USA 10:16:09 10:25:18 00:55:38 05:31:06 03:44:25 38% +0% -62% (6) (149)
13 36 Cathleen Knutson USA 10:48:37 10:56:26 01:07:07 05:48:16 03:48:14 55% +0% -45% (3) (168)
14 32 Terry Casey USA 10:59:05 11:12:19 00:58:47 05:36:07 04:19:11 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (170)
15 31 Katy Cargiulo USA 11:01:40 11:08:17 01:01:34 06:10:47 03:44:19 100% +0% -0% (2) (170)
33 Kendra Goffredo USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
35 Monica Juhart AUS n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
40 Ashley Paulson USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
43 Kyra Wiens USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

  • Richie Cunningham: 49% (1-1)
  • Kyle Buckingham: 17% (5-1)
  • Pedro Gomes: 16% (5-1)
  • Chris McDonald: 7% (14-1)
  • Thomas Gerlach: 5% (21-1)
  • Jonathan Shearon: 4% (27-1)
  • Barrett Brandon: 3% (31-1)

Female Race Participants

There are a number of women on the start list that are unlikely to race. Heather Jackson is probably on the Vineman list as a back up in case her validation race in Lake Placid the week before had runs into problem (she won and has a July slot). In a similar vein Ariane Monticelli managed to get a slot at IM Zürich and I can’t see a compelling reason for her to race Vineman. Mary Beth Ellis is also registered for IM Maastricht on the same weekend and has indicated that she’ll race there. (Update: MBE is no longer on the start list.) Amanda Stevens has been injured and is unlikely to race. This would leave Sarah Piampiano as the clear favorite to win the race:

  • Mary Beth Ellis: 34% (2-1)
  • Heather Jackson: 31% (2-1)
  • Sarah Piampiano: 19% (4-1)
  • Amanda Stevens: 12% (7-1)
  • Ariane Monticeli: 3% (30-1)
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