Race

Update July 20th: In the latest startlist a few names have been removed, I have crossed them out in the predictions table.

Previous Winners

Year	Male Winner	Time	Female Winner	Time
2005	(no MPROs)		Heather Fuhr (USA)	09:45:06
2006	Viktor Zyemtsev (USA)	08:38:18	(no WPROs)
2007	(no MPros)		Belinda Granger (AUS)	09:40:20
2008	Francisco Pontano (ARG)	08:43:32	Caitlin Snow (USA)	09:51:00
2009	Maik Twelsiek (GER)	08:36:37	Tereza Macel (CZE)	09:29:36
2010	Ben Hoffman (USA)	08:39:34	Amy Marsh (USA)	09:27:30
2011	TJ Tollakson (USA)	08:25:15	Heather Wurtele (CAN)	09:19:03
2012	Andy Potts (USA)	08:25:07	Jessie Donavan (USA)	09:47:39
2013	Andy Potts (USA)	08:43:29	Jennie Hansen (USA)	09:35:06
2014	Kyle Buckingham (ZAF)	08:38:43	Amber Ferreira (USA)	09:31:28

Last Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Time
1	Kyle Buckingham	ZAF	00:52:04	04:43:47	02:57:49	08:38:43
2	Balazs Csoke	HUN	00:48:28	04:50:33	03:07:08	08:51:26
3	Jonathan Shearon	USA	00:55:09	04:55:07	03:03:23	08:59:22

Female Race Results

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Time
1	Amber Ferreira	USA	00:57:13	05:19:33	03:08:35	09:31:28
2	Kim Schwabenbauer	USA	01:03:46	05:18:31	03:10:04	09:38:14
3	Lisa Roberts	USA	01:07:26	05:19:18	03:07:31	09:40:04

Course Records

Leg	Gender	Record	Athlete	Date
Total	overall	08:25:07	Andy Potts	2012-07-22
Swim	overall	00:45:01	Andy Potts	2012-07-22
Bike	overall	04:33:33	TJ Tollakson	2011-07-24
Run	overall	02:48:20	Viktor Zyemtsev	2006-07-23
Total	female	09:19:03	Heather Wurtele	2011-07-24
Swim	female	00:50:48	Tereza Macel	2009-07-26
Bike	female	05:07:44	Amy Marsh	2010-07-25
Run	female	02:57:05	Caitlin Snow	2009-07-26

Course Rating

The Course Rating for IM Lake Placid is – 03:31.

Race Adjustments for IM Lake Placid

Year	Adjustment	Swim Adj.	Bike Adj.	Run Adj.	# of Finishers	Rating	Swim Rating	Bike Rating	Run Rating
2005	-01:26	02:29	-08:54	03:46	21	-01:26	02:29	-08:54	03:46
2006	-17:02	00:31	-13:50	-06:43	29	-09:14	01:30	-11:22	-01:29
2007	-06:56	01:00	-11:44	-01:47	18	-08:28	01:20	-11:29	-01:35
2008	-00:13	00:25	-04:39	00:48	38	-06:24	01:06	-09:47	-00:59
2009	-02:22	00:01	-07:53	-00:56	39	-05:36	00:53	-09:24	-00:58
2010	02:59	-03:02	-03:17	01:43	44	-04:10	00:14	-08:23	-00:31
2011	00:33	-02:54	-03:46	03:02	24	-03:30	-00:13	-07:43	-00:01
2012	-03:45	00:40	-06:21	01:36	16	-03:31	-00:06	-07:33	00:11
2013	-02:42	00:12	-04:38	02:09	32	-03:26	-00:04	-07:14	00:24
2014	-04:18	-02:03	-03:57	03:35	24 of 29	-03:31	-00:16	-06:54	00:43

KPR points and Prize Money

IM Lake Placid is a P-2000 race. It will be a WPRO race only and has a total prize purse of 50.000 US$.

Female Race Participants

Rank	Bib	Name	Nation	Expected Time	Rating	Exp. Swim	Exp. Bike	Exp. Run	Consistency	Overall
1	1	Heather Jackson	USA	09:26:29	09:24:12	00:58:49	05:13:30	03:09:10	19% +56% -25% (4)	20
2	2	Kelly Williamson	USA	09:35:09	09:30:50	00:53:19	05:36:38	03:00:12	77% +12% -11% (12)	29
3	4	Amber Ferreira	USA	09:44:01	09:49:32	00:55:57	05:22:14	03:20:50	51% +25% -24% (14)	64
4	17	Annah Watkinson	ZAF	09:58:47	10:06:52	01:00:01	05:34:27	03:19:20	n/a (1 IM Pro race)	(102)
5	15	Beth Shutt	USA	10:02:20	09:57:28	01:00:39	05:31:52	03:24:50	68% +32% -0% (8)	86
6	5	Kaitlin Anelauskas	USA	10:15:39	10:41:13	00:55:03	05:55:42	03:19:54	25% +0% -75% (3)	(167)
7	14	Molly Roohi	USA	10:19:41	10:17:30	01:04:50	05:39:23	03:30:28	100% +0% -0% (4)	(123)
8	12	Caroline Martineau	CAN	10:20:46	10:46:59	01:03:03	05:39:42	03:33:01	20% +49% -31% (4)	168
9	8	Kate Bruck	USA	10:24:28	10:23:40	01:03:49	05:49:26	03:26:12	100% +0% -0% (3)	141
10	7	Neilia Bliss	USA	10:25:33	10:29:09	01:01:59	05:43:38	03:34:56	100% +0% -0% (2)	(154)
11	11	Rachel Jastrebsky	USA	10:30:58	10:29:01	01:02:03	05:43:03	03:40:52	100% +0% -0% (5)	(154)
12	6	Christine Avelar	USA	10:48:55	10:51:12	00:55:51	05:45:15	04:02:49	100% +0% -0% (2)	(169)
13	9	Florence Chretien	USA	11:35:20	11:46:06	00:58:54	06:04:29	04:26:56	65% +25% -10% (6)	(173)
	3	Alicia Kaye	USA	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	n/a (no IM Pro race)	(n/a)
	10	Erin Green	USA	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	n/a (no IM Pro race)	(n/a)
	13	Jodie Robertson	USA	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	n/a (no IM Pro race)	(n/a)
	16	Nicole Valentine	USA	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	n/a (no IM Pro race)	(n/a)

Winning Odds

Heather Jackson is the favorite – she’s following a similar race plan to last year when she qualified by winning IM Coeur d’Alene. All she needs this year is to finish. Kelly Williamson is unlikely to race, she has been tending an issue that prevented her from racing well since IM Texas.

• Heather Jackson: 38% (2-1)
• Kelly Williamson: 36% (2-1)
• Amber Ferreira: 18% (4-1)
• Beth Shutt: 5% (19-1)

KPR Situation

In addition to Heather, there are only two other athletes who are looking for a Kona slot: Alicia Kaye who is practically safe but wants to gain some more IM experience and Jodie Robertson who wants to show that her second place at IM Texas wasn’t a fluke.

Update July 13th: Matt Trautmann tweeted that he is injured and won’t be able to race in Zürich.

Update July 20th: In the latest startlist a few names have been removed, they are crossed out in the predictions table.

Previous Winners

Year	Male Winner	Time	Female Winner	Time
2005	Christoph Mauch (SUI)	08:21:48	Karin Thuerig (SUI)	09:10:51
2006	Mathias Hecht (SUI) Stefan Riesen (SUI)	08:26:01 08:16:50	Rebecca Preston (AUS)	09:24:18
2007	Ronnie Schildknecht (SUI)	08:24:58	Rebecca Preston (AUS)	09:20:40
2008	Ronnie Schildknecht (SUI)	08:16:05	Sibylle Matter (SUI)	09:30:12
2009	Ronnie Schildknecht (SUI)	08:20:00	Sibylle Matter (SUI)	09:14:35
2010	Ronnie Schildknecht (SUI)	08:12:40	Karin Thuerig (SUI)	09:00:04
2011	Ronnie Schildknecht (SUI)	08:19:51	Karin Thuerig (SUI)	09:03:26
2012	Ronnie Schildknecht (SUI)	08:17:13	Erika Csomor (HUN)	09:20:16
2013	Ronnie Schildknecht (SUI)	08:33:39	Anja Beranek (GER)	09:21:31
2014	Boris Stein (GER)	08:33:02	Daniela Ryf (SUI)	09:13:30
2015	Ronnie Schildknecht (SUI)	08:21:19	Beth Gerdes (USA)	09:21:05

Last Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Time
1	Ronnie Schildknecht	SUI	00:55:14	04:32:11	02:50:02	08:21:19
2	Jan Van Berkel	SUI	00:50:47	04:33:04	03:00:53	08:28:57
3	Alessandro Degasperi	ITA	00:55:16	04:44:47	02:47:07	08:31:36

Female Race Results

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Time
1	Beth Gerdes	USA	01:00:53	05:13:40	03:01:24	09:21:05
2	Mary Beth Ellis	USA	00:55:12	05:02:07	03:24:13	09:26:37
3	Mareen Hufe	GER	01:01:42	05:10:33	03:18:06	09:35:26

Course Records

Leg	Gender	Record	Athlete	Date
Total	overall	08:12:40	Ronnie Schildknecht	2010-07-25
Swim	overall	00:45:29	Benjamin Sanson	2005-07-15
Bike	overall	04:27:42	Ronnie Schildknecht	2012-07-15
Run	overall	02:41:58	Clemente Alonso McKernan	2011-07-10
Total	female	09:00:04	Karin Thuerig	2010-07-25
Swim	female	00:51:23	Celine Schaerer	2014-07-27
Bike	female	04:43:53	Karin Thuerig	2010-07-25
Run	female	03:00:27	Kristin Moeller	2014-07-27

Course Rating

The Course Rating for IM Switzerland is 05:14.

Race Adjustments for IM Switzerland

Year	Adjustment	Swim Adj.	Bike Adj.	Run Adj.	# of Finishers	Rating	Swim Rating	Bike Rating	Run Rating
2005	-03:50	00:25	02:46	-07:19	42	-03:50	00:25	02:46	-07:19
2006	15:11	01:11	04:45	-00:04	33	05:40	00:48	03:46	-03:41
2007	17:55	-01:00	10:22	01:14	35	09:45	00:12	05:58	-02:03
2008	09:14	-00:09	01:56	02:04	30 of 40	09:37	00:07	04:57	-01:01
2009	12:38	-00:46	07:20	05:08	37	10:14	-00:04	05:26	00:13
2010	07:40	-01:22	06:05	01:48	30 of 38	09:48	-00:17	05:32	00:29
2011	09:22	-02:29	01:22	06:20	20	09:44	-00:36	04:57	01:19
2012	06:43	-03:08	04:25	02:10	31	09:22	-00:55	04:53	01:25
2013	-09:48	-05:12	02:57	-05:29	38	07:14	-01:24	04:40	00:39
2014	00:04	-03:45	05:20	-00:22	28 of 36	06:31	-01:38	04:44	00:33
2015	-07:37	-02:51	00:59	-02:22	24 of 38	05:14	-01:44	04:23	00:17

KPR points and Prize Money

IM Switzerland is a P-2000 race. It has a total prize purse of 50.000 US$.

Male Race Participants

Rank	Bib	Name	Nation	Expected Time	Rating	Exp. Swim	Exp. Bike	Exp. Run	Consistency	Overall
1	1	Ronnie Schildknecht	SUI	08:18:44	08:28:31	00:53:18	04:29:48	02:50:38	75% +1% -25% (27)	19
2	79	Clemente Alonso McKernan	ESP	08:19:15	08:36:03	00:48:36	04:34:39	02:50:59	43% +11% -46% (14)	(42)
3	73	Timo Bracht	GER	08:21:27	08:23:48	00:50:57	04:32:41	02:52:48	83% +8% -8% (26)	10
4	70	Matt Trautman	ZAF	08:24:43	08:25:19	00:52:14	04:34:33	02:52:55	80% +0% -20% (6)	11
5	2	Jan Van Berkel	SUI	08:29:06	08:48:01	00:49:29	04:32:06	03:02:31	49% +24% -27% (11)	80
6	8	Markus Fachbach	GER	08:32:26	08:37:06	00:50:59	04:35:16	03:01:12	83% +0% -17% (17)	47
7	74	David Plese	SLO	08:34:46	08:41:23	00:53:47	04:38:13	02:57:46	73% +5% -22% (16)	59
8	37	Andrej Vistica	CRO	08:37:36	08:44:28	00:55:03	04:38:53	02:58:41	75% +0% -25% (10)	68
9	15	Fabio Carvalho	BRA	08:38:19	09:16:16	00:49:02	04:47:47	02:56:29	2% +39% -59% (9)	193
10	78	Igor Amorelli	BRA	08:38:34	08:47:41	00:48:55	04:36:38	03:08:01	32% +12% -55% (10)	78
11	11	Fraser Cartmell	GBR	08:39:56	08:48:19	00:49:56	04:37:27	03:07:33	57% +14% -28% (9)	81
12	10	Bertrand Billard	FRA	08:41:46	08:57:11	00:51:08	04:38:57	03:06:41	7% +35% -58% (8)	113
13	71	Ritchie Nicholls	GBR	08:41:57	08:58:34	00:51:52	04:53:02	02:52:03	47% +0% -53% (4)	(118)
14	32	Darby Thomas	FIN	08:42:47	08:56:49	00:59:45	04:41:36	02:56:27	63% +10% -27% (7)	110
15	5	Mauro Baertsch	SUI	08:43:09	08:58:46	00:54:28	04:44:36	02:59:04	45% +32% -23% (9)	119
16	31	Pascal Ramali	GER	08:46:28	09:13:59	01:00:17	04:34:43	03:06:28	27% +0% -73% (3)	(184)
17	34	Harry Wiltshire	GBR	08:47:41	08:53:05	00:49:14	04:45:53	03:07:33	26% +32% -42% (14)	98
18	9	Christian Brader	GER	08:48:30	08:59:28	00:57:46	04:47:06	02:58:38	74% +5% -21% (33)	124
19	40	Manuel Kueng	SUI	08:49:03	09:06:54	00:47:23	04:30:11	03:26:29	11% +89% -0% (3)	(158)
20	18	Roman Deisenhofer	GER	08:49:48	09:05:52	00:54:33	04:40:02	03:10:13	38% +62% -0% (4)	156
21	6	Mike Schifferle	SUI	08:50:14	09:02:37	01:01:30	04:42:04	03:01:41	85% +11% -4% (55)	137
22	39	Balazs Csoke	HUN	08:52:18	09:01:13	00:48:49	04:45:10	03:13:19	63% +8% -29% (23)	130
23	35	Patrick Jaberg	SUI	08:53:30	09:04:38	00:54:52	04:45:22	03:08:16	96% +0% -4% (16)	150
24	36	David Naesvik	SWE	08:54:07	09:02:15	00:56:42	04:41:21	03:11:04	77% +0% -23% (13)	135
25	14	Simon Billeau	FRA	08:57:53	09:03:29	00:56:08	04:39:44	03:17:01	43% +0% -57% (17)	142
26	25	Tomas Mika	CZE	08:59:05	09:08:17	00:56:36	04:56:24	03:01:06	84% +16% -0% (5)	161
27	28	Sebastian Pedraza	ITA	09:01:55	09:11:35	00:54:49	04:44:15	03:17:51	56% +16% -28% (13)	(171)
28	77	Marcel Bischof	GER	09:02:00	09:15:43	00:58:14	04:50:07	03:08:40	83% +17% -0% (13)	190
29	76	Gergö Molnar	HUN	09:07:31	09:18:13	00:51:24	04:51:13	03:19:54	42% +0% -58% (7)	197
30	22	Johan Kaerner	SWE	09:11:02	09:27:37	01:00:48	04:49:37	03:15:38	n/a (1 IM Pro race)	(221)
31	16	Nicholas Chase	USA	09:25:31	09:42:32	00:53:46	04:57:40	03:29:05	n/a (1 IM Pro race)	(257)
32	80	Ivan Jezko	SVK	09:27:29	09:42:32	01:02:08	05:00:31	03:19:50	42% +23% -34% (11)	257
33	21	David Jilek	CZE	09:27:51	09:39:13	00:59:45	04:57:49	03:25:17	64% +21% -15% (7)	252
34	17	Emanuele Ciotti	ITA	09:28:47	09:43:21	00:53:44	05:03:14	03:26:48	33% +36% -31% (3)	(260)
35	30	Lukas Polan	CZE	09:40:58	09:56:55	01:04:19	05:05:31	03:26:08	30% +15% -55% (9)	277
36	72	Peter Kotland	CZE	09:43:57	09:55:55	01:01:01	05:04:12	03:33:44	54% +26% -21% (21)	274
37	27	Gilian Oriet	SUI	09:45:10	10:00:50	00:59:13	05:04:23	03:36:34	22% +10% -68% (10)	283
38	24	Martin Charles	FRA	10:05:44	10:23:57	00:54:50	05:14:46	03:51:08	n/a (1 IM Pro race)	(295)
39	38	Remmert Wielinga	NED	10:07:37	10:52:28	01:14:31	05:00:25	03:47:41	7% +11% -82% (6)	(303)
40	13	Santiago Abad de Agueda	ESP	10:31:11	10:56:40	01:05:13	05:21:19	03:59:39	49% +0% -51% (2)	(304)
41	23	David Krupicka	CZE	10:46:09	10:59:26	01:06:33	05:20:26	04:14:10	100% +0% -0% (2)	(304)
42	26	Marek Nemcik	SVK	11:28:43	12:09:19	01:13:23	05:44:54	04:25:26	32% +25% -43% (35)	308
	12	Philipp Koutny	SUI	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	n/a (no IM Pro race)	(n/a)
	19	Matthias Epping		n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	n/a (no IM Pro race)	(n/a)
	20	Jan Hron		n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	n/a (no IM Pro race)	(n/a)
	29	Cyril Pochon	FRA	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	n/a (no IM Pro race)	(n/a)
	33	Richard Westover	GBR	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	n/a (no IM Pro race)	(n/a)
	55	Lauren Capone	USA	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	n/a (no IM Pro race)	(n/a)
	75	Petr Bednar	CZE	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	n/a (1 IM Pro race)	(n/a)

Female Race Participants

Rank	Bib	Name	Nation	Expected Time	Rating	Exp. Swim	Exp. Bike	Exp. Run	Consistency	Overall
1	50	Daniela Ryf	SUI	08:55:51	09:05:05	00:53:24	04:51:50	03:05:37	71% +0% -29% (6)	2
2	54	Michaela Herlbauer	AUT	09:19:04	09:32:15	00:56:58	05:07:38	03:09:28	33% +31% -36% (5)	35
3	42	Celine Schaerer	SUI	09:22:59	09:42:25	00:49:10	05:09:18	03:19:31	58% +0% -42% (4)	(53)
4	49	Natascha Badmann	SUI	09:28:44	09:39:17	01:03:04	04:59:57	03:20:42	42% +0% -58% (17)	48
5	62	Kristin Moeller	GER	09:29:29	09:35:55	01:04:37	05:17:06	03:02:46	83% +15% -2% (17)	41
6	41	Emma Bilham	SUI	09:31:01	09:48:12	00:56:03	05:12:25	03:17:33	n/a (1 IM Pro race)	(64)
7	53	Ariane Monticeli	BRA	09:33:38	09:44:05	01:03:20	05:17:43	03:07:34	55% +27% -18% (14)	59
8	59	Regula Rohrbach	SUI	09:39:21	09:52:31	00:58:29	05:01:55	03:33:58	59% +13% -29% (11)	74
9	43	Carolin Lehrieder	GER	09:41:12	09:57:37	00:56:42	05:19:43	03:19:47	30% +23% -46% (6)	87
10	56	Karen Thibodeau	CAN	09:52:00	09:59:37	00:55:32	05:25:09	03:26:19	65% +0% -35% (11)	91
11	52	Katharina Grohmann	GER	09:53:54	10:03:46	01:13:12	05:17:23	03:18:19	100% +0% -0% (12)	97
12	51	Corina Hengartner	SUI	09:59:04	10:12:55	01:04:17	05:16:07	03:33:40	56% +25% -19% (4)	116
13	60	Caroline Livesey	GBR	09:59:37	10:07:05	01:03:06	05:19:24	03:32:07	68% +0% -32% (7)	102
14	44	Lina-Kristin Schink	GER	10:00:41	10:19:21	01:12:19	05:20:07	03:23:16	70% +0% -30% (5)	129
15	46	Petra Krejcova	CZE	10:02:28	10:14:57	01:04:03	05:33:01	03:20:23	100% +0% -0% (2)	(118)
16	48	Mariana Andrade	BRA	10:03:12	10:25:39	01:01:26	05:18:33	03:38:14	11% +38% -51% (12)	149
17	47	Alyssa Godesky	USA	10:10:42	10:21:50	01:03:21	05:31:15	03:31:06	61% +20% -19% (11)	134
18	58	Nicole Woysch	GER	10:18:15	10:54:33	01:00:29	05:24:54	03:47:53	22% +3% -75% (21)	(169)
19	61	Jana Candrova	CZE	10:18:51	10:36:13	01:07:49	05:26:20	03:39:41	68% +2% -30% (14)	163
	45	Lauren Parker	AUS	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	n/a (no IM Pro race)	(n/a)
	57	Diane Luethi	SUI	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	n/a (no IM Pro race)	(n/a)

KPR Situation

The following graphs show who is in a position to improve their KPR score to move beyond “the bubble” where qualifying comes down to everybody’s results on the last day of racing.

Male Participants

Female Participants

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

Based on his good results at the end of 2014, Clemente is the slight statistical favorite, but he’s been struggling lately (including a DNF in Frankfurt). Ronnie Schildknecht has won this race eight times before but he faces strong competition by Timo, Jan and Matt, most of whom still need the Kona points that come with a good finish.

• Clemente Alonso McKernan: 26% (3-1)
• Timo Bracht: 18% (5-1)
• Ronnie Schildknecht: 18% (5-1)
• Jan Van Berkel: 8% (11-1)
• Matt Trautman: 6% (15-1)

Female Race Participants

If Daniela decides to race (she’s scheduled to race Roth just a week before), she’ll be the clear favorite. If she’s not racing, the top spot will be wide open.

• Daniela Ryf: 69% (1-1)
• Michaela Herlbauer: 10% (9-1)
• Natascha Badmann: 7% (14-1)
• Kristin Moeller: 4% (23-1)
• Celine Schaerer: 4% (26-1)
• Ariane Monticeli: 4% (27-1)

Update July 11th: Daniela Ryf is a thrilling late addition to the women’s field. With her in the race I have recalculated my odds as well.

Update July 9th: Unfortunately, Meredith Kessler has to take care of an injury that was slowing her down in this season and won’t be racing Roth. Get better soon, MBK! I’ve also crossed out Susie Cheetham who announced a while ago that she won’t be able to race.

Previous Winners

Year	Male Winner	Time	Female Winner	Time
2005	Chris McCormack (AUS)	07:58:45	Belinda Granger (AUS)	09:14:06
2006	Chris McCormack (AUS)	08:00:52	Joanna Lawn (NZL)	09:01:17
2007	Chris McCormack (AUS)	07:54:23	Yvonne Van Vlerken (NED)	08:51:55
2008	Patrick Vernay (NCL)	08:09:34	Yvonne Van Vlerken (NED)	08:45:48
2009	Michael Goehner (GER)	07:55:53	Chrissie Wellington (GBR)	08:31:59
2010	Rasmus Henning (DEN)	07:52:36	Chrissie Wellington (GBR)	08:19:13
2011	Andreas Raelert (GER)	07:41:33	Chrissie Wellington (GBR)	08:18:13
2012	James Cunnama (ZAF)	07:59:59	Rachel Joyce (GBR)	08:45:04
2013	Dirk Bockel (LUX)	07:52:01	Caroline Steffen (SUI)	08:40:35
2014	Timo Bracht (GER)	07:56:00	Mirinda Carfrae (AUS)	08:38:53
2015	Nils Frommhold (GER)	07:51:28	Yvonne Van Vlerken (NED)	08:50:53

Last Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Time
1	Nils Frommhold	GER	00:47:33	04:09:30	02:51:47	07:51:28
2	Timo Bracht	GER	00:47:37	04:20:42	02:45:33	07:56:31
3	David Dellow	AUS	00:47:35	04:20:24	02:48:12	07:59:28

Female Race Results

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Time
1	Yvonne Van Vlerken	NED	00:54:46	04:47:34	03:05:43	08:50:53
2	Carrie Lester	AUS	00:52:09	04:47:43	03:09:50	08:53:09
3	Anja Beranek	GER	00:49:20	04:47:58	03:14:55	08:55:19

Course Records

Leg	Gender	Record	Athlete	Date
Total	overall	07:41:33	Andreas Raelert	2011-07-10
Swim	overall	00:45:57	Pete Jacobs	2009-07-12
Bike	overall	04:09:13	Andrew Starykowicz	2015-07-12
Run	overall	02:39:43	Rasmus Henning	2010-07-18
Total	female	08:18:13	Chrissie Wellington	2011-07-10
Swim	female	00:47:27	Ute Mueckel	2005-06-24
Bike	female	04:36:33	Chrissie Wellington	2010-07-18
Run	female	02:44:35	Chrissie Wellington	2011-07-10

Course Rating

The Course Rating for Challenge Roth is 18:49.

Race Adjustments for Challenge Roth

Year	Adjustment	Swim Adj.	Bike Adj.	Run Adj.	# of Finishers	Rating	Swim Rating	Bike Rating	Run Rating
2005	18:02	01:08	13:32	05:29	28	18:02	01:08	13:32	05:29
2006	12:19	01:18	06:23	03:08	41	15:10	01:13	09:57	04:18
2007	23:37	00:54	10:36	07:18	35	17:59	01:07	10:10	05:18
2008	21:38	01:58	06:55	08:02	40	18:54	01:20	09:21	05:59
2009	26:32	02:06	15:53	05:03	43	20:26	01:29	10:40	05:48
2010	18:19	00:29	06:54	05:38	43	20:05	01:19	10:02	05:46
2011	20:53	01:52	15:28	05:42	38	20:11	01:24	10:49	05:46
2012	14:26	02:25	05:11	04:43	50	19:28	01:31	10:06	05:38
2013	21:21	00:30	13:41	04:53	41	19:41	01:25	10:30	05:33
2014	10:21	-00:06	13:01	-01:13	37	18:45	01:15	10:45	04:52
2015	19:36	01:18	11:56	04:15	44 of 56	18:49	01:16	10:52	04:49

Male Race Participants

Roth does not have a “Pro” Category per se, so I may have missed some of the Professional athletes racing.

Rank	Bib	Name	Nation	Expected Time	Rating	Exp. Swim	Exp. Bike	Exp. Run	Consistency	Overall
1	2	Jan Frodeno	GER	07:55:26	08:11:20	00:45:24	04:20:13	02:44:48	80% +20% -0% (5)	1
2	1	Nils Frommhold	GER	07:55:57	08:20:44	00:46:41	04:13:31	02:50:45	78% +0% -22% (7)	6
3	3	Tyler Butterfield	BMU	08:13:32	08:35:20	00:47:26	04:26:41	02:54:24	46% +24% -30% (11)	40
4	7	Joe Skipper	GBR	08:15:15	08:33:35	00:52:53	04:26:14	02:51:08	51% +27% -22% (11)	32
5	5	Cyril Viennot	FRA	08:16:01	08:34:12	00:48:59	04:28:27	02:53:35	63% +24% -13% (15)	35
6	4	Per Bittner	GER	08:16:09	08:42:19	00:47:41	04:27:20	02:56:07	52% +17% -31% (17)	64
7	6	Jan Raphael	GER	08:24:21	08:38:32	00:47:23	04:34:25	02:57:32	91% +0% -9% (22)	53
8	8	Martin Jensen	DEN	08:27:20	08:39:21	00:49:09	04:35:35	02:57:36	100% +0% -0% (3)	(55)
9	9	Thomas Hellriegel	GER	08:31:59	09:09:16	00:49:57	04:24:12	03:12:50	22% +8% -69% (6)	(164)
10	10	Andreas Linden	SWE	08:33:07	09:07:45	00:57:28	04:20:24	03:10:15	49% +0% -51% (2)	(159)
11	21	Bernd Hagen	GER	08:35:53	09:06:41	00:54:32	04:41:03	02:55:19	99% +1% -0% (13)	(158)
12	14	Marcel Bischof	GER	08:44:43	09:15:43	00:54:53	04:42:06	03:02:44	83% +17% -0% (13)	190
13	18	Xavier Diepart	BEL	08:49:56	09:11:54	00:55:15	04:47:56	03:01:45	80% +14% -6% (8)	(175)
14	24	Tjardo Visser	NED	08:56:00	09:26:32	00:50:45	04:58:47	03:01:28	n/a (1 IM Pro race)	(216)
15	16	Luke Dragstra	CAN	08:59:05	09:27:35	00:52:01	04:47:49	03:14:15	14% +2% -84% (22)	220
16	23	Thomas Naasz	NED	08:59:45	09:27:06	00:54:33	04:49:27	03:10:46	100% +0% -0% (5)	217
17	27	Ivan Jezko	SVK	09:13:03	09:42:32	00:58:53	04:54:00	03:15:11	42% +23% -34% (11)	257
18	12	Christian Jais	GER	09:20:36	09:55:28	00:54:55	04:48:38	03:32:03	n/a (1 IM Pro race)	(274)
19	26	Jeremy Howard	USA	09:43:52	10:14:55	00:51:24	05:14:35	03:32:53	48% +0% -52% (2)	(291)
20	25	Rob Bobbaers	BEL	09:44:50	10:18:08	00:59:17	04:55:46	03:44:47	n/a (1 IM Pro race)	(292)
21	28	Henry Beck	GER	09:57:56	10:35:08	00:47:42	04:49:21	04:15:53	n/a (1 IM Pro race)	(297)
	11	Robert Duncan	USA	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	n/a (1 IM Pro race)	(n/a)
	13	Tobias Heining	GER	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	n/a (no IM Pro race)	(n/a)
	15	Daniel Mugica Corrales	ESP	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	n/a (no IM Pro race)	(n/a)
	17	Nick Kastelein	AUS	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	n/a (no IM Pro race)	(n/a)
	19	Lukas Storath	GER	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	n/a (no IM Pro race)	(n/a)
	20	Jurgen Van Oevelen	BEL	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	n/a (no IM Pro race)	(n/a)
	22	Fabian Rahn	GER	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	n/a (no IM Pro race)	(n/a)

Female Race Participants

Rank	Bib	Name	Nation	Expected Time	Rating	Exp. Swim	Exp. Bike	Exp. Run	Consistency	Overall
1		Daniela Ryf	SUI	08:42:19	09:05:05	00:50:40	04:45:17	03:01:21	71% +0% -29% (6)	2
1	51	Yvonne Van Vlerken	NED	08:54:44	09:17:16	00:56:01	04:47:34	03:06:09	84% +0% -16% (23)	10
2	55	Meredith Kessler	USA	08:56:01	09:17:50	00:48:23	04:54:13	03:08:25	65% +14% -20% (23)	12
3	53	Anja Beranek	GER	08:59:25	09:19:16	00:49:40	04:48:56	03:15:49	83% +6% -11% (7)	15
4	52	Carrie Lester	AUS	09:01:22	09:29:35	00:52:27	04:54:55	03:09:00	58% +24% -17% (18)	26
5	57	Susie Cheetham	GBR	09:01:26	09:16:19	00:53:32	05:02:41	03:00:13	100% +0% -0% (4)	8
6	56	Michelle Vesterby	DEN	09:02:23	09:22:59	00:50:26	04:55:30	03:11:27	71% +4% -25% (17)	18
7	54	Mary Beth Ellis	USA	09:03:29	09:17:57	00:49:53	04:53:27	03:15:08	93% +0% -7% (17)	13
8	61	Laura Siddall	GBR	09:12:12	09:43:20	00:56:05	04:54:19	03:16:47	41% +44% -15% (6)	55
9	60	Erika Csomor	HUN	09:13:02	09:33:50	00:57:35	05:00:43	03:09:45	81% +0% -19% (33)	39
10	58	Mirjam Weerd	NED	09:15:08	09:39:58	00:51:54	04:59:22	03:18:52	85% +5% -10% (12)	49
11	67	Jessica Fleming	AUS	09:32:01	09:53:57	00:59:04	05:03:27	03:24:30	88% +0% -12% (7)	81
12	69	Kathryn Haesner	NZL	09:35:09	10:24:49	00:55:41	05:15:59	03:18:30	41% +59% -0% (2)	(148)
13	63	Monique Grossrieder	SUI	09:40:31	10:08:08	01:02:54	05:14:59	03:17:38	45% +23% -32% (6)	(106)
14	68	Carla Van Rooijen	NED	09:50:56	10:17:21	01:11:04	05:15:07	03:19:45	78% +22% -0% (6)	122
15	62	Caroline Gregory	USA	09:51:50	10:20:21	00:54:32	05:28:50	03:23:28	59% +9% -32% (12)	131
16	64	Michelle Duffield	AUS	09:55:28	10:20:34	01:00:08	05:21:03	03:29:17	77% +0% -23% (6)	132
17	74	Line Foss	NOR	10:08:56	11:09:05	01:22:33	05:05:22	03:36:01	23% +24% -53% (4)	(173)
18	66	Fabiola Corona	MEX	10:13:29	10:48:25	00:57:27	05:30:23	03:40:39	n/a (1 IM Pro race)	(169)
	59	Rachel McBride	CAN	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	n/a (no IM Pro race)	(n/a)
	65	Franzi Bossow	GER	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	n/a (no IM Pro race)	(n/a)
	70	Jenny Latham	GBR	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	n/a (no IM Pro race)	(n/a)
	71	Tereza Durdiakova	CZE	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	n/a (no IM Pro race)	(n/a)
	72	Carole Fuchs	THA	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	n/a (1 IM Pro race)	(n/a)
	73	Jenny Fletcher	CAN	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	n/a (no IM Pro race)	(n/a)
	75	Daniela Zoll	GER	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	n/a (no IM Pro race)	(n/a)

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

Kona Champion Jan Frodeno is the clear favorite for this race – he’d love to get close or even beat Andreas Reeler’s 7:41 from 2011. But based on the “raw numbers” last year’s winner Nils Frommhold could get close and will be there if “Frodo” shows any sign of weakness.

• Jan Frodeno: 38% (2-1)
• Nils Frommhold: 27% (3-1)
• Tyler Butterfield: 10% (9-1)
• Joe Skipper: 10% (9-1)
• Cyril Viennot: 8% (11-1)

Female Race Participants

Yvonne Van Vlerken is already the female with the most sub-9 finishes – she has ten, ahead of Chrissie Wellington’s nine. She has won in Roth three times (same number as Chrissie) and would like to move ahead in this statistic as well.

• Yvonne Van Vlerken: 36% (2-1)
• Meredith Kessler: 25% (3-1)
• Carrie Lester: 16% (5-1)
• Michelle Vesterby: 12% (7-1)
• Anja Beranek: 7% (12-1)

Here are the odds after Daniela Ryf has been added to the field:

• Daniela Ryf: 60% (1-1)
• Yvonne Van Vlerken: 14% (6-1)
• Carrie Lester: 10% (9-1)
• Michelle Vesterby: 10% (9-1)
• Anja Beranek: 6% (17-1)

Update July 10th: Congratulations to Brad Williams on the birth of his first child. Of course that takes precedence over racing.

Previous Winners

Year	Male Winner	Time	Female Winner	Time
2009	Philip Graves (GBR)	08:45:52	Bella Bayliss (GBR)	09:34:00
2010	Fraser Cartmell (GBR)	08:40:18	Yvette Grice (GBR)	10:01:03
2011	Aaron Farlow (AUS)	08:24:34	Kristin Moeller (GER)	09:19:04
2012	Daniel Halksworth (GBR)	08:55:11	Eimear Mullan (IRL)	10:08:44
2013	Daniel Halksworth (GBR)	08:45:48	Lucy Gossage (GBR)	09:29:12
2014	Cyril Viennot (FRA)	08:44:10	Tamsin Lewis (GBR)	09:52:12
2015	David McNamee (GBR)	08:46:37	Lucy Gossage (GBR)	09:31:58

Last Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Time
1	David McNamee	GBR	00:48:01	05:02:34	02:51:48	08:46:37
2	Fraser Cartmell	GBR	00:48:28	04:58:39	02:59:52	08:51:06
3	Joe Skipper	GBR	00:56:06	04:58:30	02:55:44	08:55:38

Female Race Results

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Time
1	Lucy Gossage	GBR	00:59:11	05:22:56	03:03:43	09:31:58
2	Caroline Livesey	GBR	01:01:03	05:36:36	03:21:07	10:05:21
3	Alice Hector	GBR	00:56:49	05:59:01	03:16:06	10:18:46

Course Records

Leg	Gender	Record	Athlete	Date
Total	overall	08:24:34	Aaron Farlow	2011-07-31
Swim	overall	00:43:35	Fraser Cartmell	2010-08-01
Bike	overall	04:50:48	Cyril Viennot	2014-07-20
Run	overall	02:41:46	Aaron Farlow	2011-07-31
Total	female	09:19:04	Kristin Moeller	2011-07-31
Swim	female	00:48:19	Amanda Stevens	2012-07-22
Bike	female	05:22:13	Lucy Gossage	2013-08-04
Run	female	02:41:57	Kristin Moeller	2011-07-31

Course Rating

The Course Rating for IM UK is – 03:43.

Race Adjustments for IM UK

Year	Adjustment	Swim Adj.	Bike Adj.	Run Adj.	# of Finishers	Rating	Swim Rating	Bike Rating	Run Rating
2009	02:29	-03:02	-10:14	10:31	20	02:29	-03:02	-10:14	10:31
2010	01:11	04:35	-23:58	09:10	14	01:50	00:46	-17:06	09:50
2011	08:38	04:47	-14:27	22:54	16	04:06	02:07	-16:13	14:12
2012	-06:47	00:02	-09:59	02:04	11	01:23	01:35	-14:40	11:10
2013	-05:23	04:05	-12:08	02:59	15	00:02	02:05	-14:09	09:32
2014	-09:47	01:11	-14:57	01:20	16 of 21	-01:36	01:56	-14:17	08:10
2015	-16:19	-01:11	-20:05	00:55	20 of 24	-03:43	01:29	-15:07	07:08

KPR points and Prize Money

IM UK is a P-2000 race. It has a total prize purse of 50.000 US$.

Female Race Participants

Similar to IM Frankfurt, the defending women’s champion has the honor of racing with bib #1.

Rank	Bib	Name	Nation	Expected Time	Rating	Exp. Swim	Exp. Bike	Exp. Run	Consistency	Overall
1	1	Lucy Gossage	GBR	09:20:22	09:17:37	00:56:19	05:17:58	03:01:05	92% +0% -8% (12)	11
2	2	Tine Deckers	BEL	09:34:52	09:28:30	00:56:56	05:20:32	03:12:25	58% +9% -33% (18)	24
3	3	Kristin Moeller	GER	09:39:11	09:35:55	01:00:50	05:37:14	02:56:08	83% +15% -2% (17)	41
4	6	Katja Konschak	GER	09:43:56	09:53:47	00:51:40	05:42:03	03:05:13	39% +43% -18% (16)	80
5	4	Lucy Charles	GBR	09:53:49	10:01:38	00:45:46	05:41:16	03:21:48	n/a (1 IM Pro race)	(95)
6	7	Kate Comber	GBR	10:04:23	10:06:14	00:52:15	05:45:10	03:21:58	100% +0% -0% (2)	(102)
7	8	Vicky Gill	GBR	10:06:30	10:25:04	01:02:37	05:39:39	03:19:14	10% +46% -44% (3)	(148)
8	5	Alyssa Godesky	USA	10:20:55	10:21:50	00:59:40	05:53:01	03:23:14	61% +20% -19% (11)	134

Male Race Participants

Rank	Bib	Name	Nation	Expected Time	Rating	Exp. Swim	Exp. Bike	Exp. Run	Consistency	Overall
1	35	Fraser Cartmell	GBR	08:42:07	08:48:19	00:46:27	04:53:22	02:57:18	57% +14% -28% (9)	81
2	21	Michael Raelert	GER	08:42:21	08:47:46	00:46:15	04:57:51	02:53:15	11% +20% -69% (4)	(79)
3	24	Romain Guillaume	FRA	08:43:56	08:44:11	00:47:10	04:52:21	02:59:25	61% +20% -19% (27)	67
4	27	Kirill Kotshegarov	EST	08:44:28	08:49:21	00:51:51	04:53:30	02:54:06	61% +19% -20% (11)	87
5	25	Andrej Vistica	CRO	08:46:15	08:44:28	00:51:52	04:57:19	02:52:04	75% +0% -25% (10)	68
6	26	Fabio Carvalho	BRA	08:46:59	09:16:16	00:46:07	05:06:13	02:49:38	2% +39% -59% (9)	193
7	29	Ritchie Nicholls	GBR	08:50:40	08:58:34	00:48:45	05:11:39	02:45:17	47% +0% -53% (4)	(118)
8	31	Denis Sketako	SLO	08:52:07	08:58:52	00:52:25	04:57:36	02:57:06	51% +49% -0% (3)	120
9	23	Harry Wiltshire	GBR	08:53:51	08:53:05	00:46:08	05:03:06	02:59:37	26% +32% -42% (14)	98
10	22	Markus Thomschke	GER	08:54:01	08:57:39	00:51:34	04:55:11	03:02:17	62% +12% -26% (15)	116
11	34	Karl-Johan Danielsson	SWE	08:59:36	09:03:01	00:49:24	04:55:21	03:09:50	35% +31% -34% (9)	139
12	36	Patrick Evoe	USA	09:03:37	08:57:10	00:54:26	05:01:06	03:03:05	87% +4% -9% (22)	112
13	28	Nick Baldwin	SEY	09:04:46	09:02:31	00:51:36	05:03:45	03:04:25	60% +0% -40% (16)	136
14	33	Simon Billeau	FRA	09:06:53	09:03:29	00:53:00	04:58:47	03:10:06	43% +0% -57% (17)	142
15	38	Graeme Stewart	GBR	09:09:45	09:10:34	00:52:39	05:11:52	03:00:13	53% +9% -38% (12)	168
16	32	Oliver Simon	GBR	09:21:18	09:38:53	00:47:42	05:10:09	03:18:26	55% +0% -45% (12)	251
17	30	Brad Williams	USA	09:27:25	09:46:13	00:54:46	05:13:26	03:14:13	76% +0% -24% (4)	264
18	37	Eneko Elosegui	ESP	09:32:29	09:38:41	00:56:09	05:09:13	03:22:06	73% +25% -1% (14)	250
19	39	Peter Kern	GER	09:38:13	10:02:53	00:54:28	05:15:53	03:22:52	16% +0% -84% (7)	(284)
	40	Chris Whitcombe	GBR	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	n/a (no IM Pro race)	(n/a)

KPR Situation

Female Race Participants

On the women’s side defending champion and race favorite Lucy Gossage is already safe for Kona. I also consider Katja Konschak safe at 4.860 points after finishing second at IM Germany, but she said she wants to be absolutely certain of qualifying and wants to control things herself. Among the others, the following athletes still have a chance for a July slot

• Tine Deckers (3840), needs a 3rd place
• Kristin Moeller (3145), needs a 2nd place

Male Race Participants

There are quite a large number of athletes that are still looking to secure a July slot, here’s the result they roughly need:

• 6th: Michael Raelert
• 4th: Markus Thomschke
• 3rd: Harry Wiltshire, Romain Guillaume
• 2nd: Andrej Vistica, Fabio Carvalho, Kirill Kotshegarov

Winning Odds

Female Race Participants

• Lucy Gossage: 65% (1-1)
• Tine Deckers: 16% (5-1)
• Kristin Moeller: 9% (10-1)
• Katja Konschak: 9% (10-1)

Male Race Participants

• Fraser Cartmell: 26% (3-1)
• Kirill Kotshegarov: 19% (4-1)
• Romain Guillaume: 17% (5-1)
• Michael Raelert: 12% (7-1)
• Andrej Vistica: 10% (9-1)
• Harry Wiltshire: 6% (15-1)