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Ironman France 2016 (June 5th) – Predictions

IMFranceLogo Update May 27th: Michael Raelert announced on his Facebook page that he suffers from an infection with the Epstein-Barr virus and won’t be able to race in France.

Update May 31st: Kristin Möller has said that France was just a backup for Brasil where she finished fifth and won’t be racing in Nice.

Update June 4th: After Pros signing in, a few expected DNSs have been confirmed.

Previous Winners

Year Male Winner Time Female Winner Time
2005 Herve Faure (FRA) 08:49:06 Mariska Kramer-Postma (NED) 10:12:29
2006 Marcel Zamora (ESP) 08:33:56 Edith Niederfriniger (ITA) 09:56:32
2007 Marcel Zamora (ESP) 08:38:45 Alexandra Louison (FRA) 09:49:11
2008 Marcel Zamora (ESP) 08:34:03 Martina Dogana (ITA) 09:35:29
2009 Marcel Zamora (ESP) 08:30:06 Tine Deckers (BEL) 09:30:29
2010 Marcel Zamora (ESP) 08:25:28 Tine Deckers (BEL) 09:21:29
2011 Frederik Van Lierde (BEL) 08:28:30 Silvia Felt (GER) 09:34:31
2012 Frederik Van Lierde (BEL) 08:21:51 Tine Deckers (BEL) 09:16:05
2013 Frederik Van Lierde (BEL) 08:08:59 Mary Beth Ellis (USA) 09:12:54
2014 Bart Aernouts (BEL) 08:33:22 Tine Deckers (BEL) 09:12:21
2015 Boris Stein (GER) 08:27:32 Caitlin Snow (USA) 09:24:50

Last Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Boris Stein GER 00:56:58 04:41:18 02:44:20 08:27:32
2 Victor Del Corral ESP 00:58:11 04:44:40 02:42:04 08:30:00
3 Romain Guillaume FRA 00:50:46 04:39:01 03:00:01 08:34:44

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Caitlin Snow USA 00:57:43 05:21:59 02:58:26 09:24:50
2 Lisa Roberts USA 01:03:40 05:21:07 02:54:45 09:26:00
3 Emma Pooley GBR 01:06:40 05:16:34 03:12:35 09:43:48

Course Records

Leg Gender Record Athlete Date
Total overall 08:08:59 Frederik Van Lierde 2013-06-23
Swim overall 00:44:18 Gilles Reboul 2006-06-24
Bike overall 04:33:29 Frederik Van Lierde 2013-06-23
Run overall 02:37:01 Bart Aernouts 2013-06-23
Total female 09:12:21 Tine Deckers 2014-06-29
Swim female 00:48:59 Edith Niederfriniger 2006-06-24
Bike female 05:05:22 Christel Robin 2009-06-28
Run female 02:52:26 Caitlin Snow 2014-06-29

Course Rating

The Course Rating for IM France is 03:58.

Year Adjustment Swim Adj. Bike Adj. Run Adj. # of Finishers Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating
2006 08:54 06:08 -01:00 03:29 34 08:54 06:08 -01:00 03:29
2007 07:24 00:21 00:29 07:03 39 08:09 03:14 -00:15 05:16
2008 01:09 -00:39 -01:39 00:38 41 05:49 01:56 -00:43 03:43
2009 03:17 -01:44 00:41 05:34 36 05:11 01:01 -00:22 04:11
2010 10:00 -01:59 -01:27 05:38 32 06:09 00:25 -00:35 04:29
2011 03:18 -00:12 -02:38 02:47 29 05:40 00:19 -00:56 04:12
2012 00:46 00:10 -03:49 04:07 23 04:58 00:18 -01:20 04:11
2013 06:17 00:07 -02:08 09:47 20 05:08 00:16 -01:26 04:53
2014 -02:55 -01:50 -04:52 04:08 26 of 34 04:14 00:02 -01:49 04:48
2015 01:27 -01:36 -05:47 05:00 25 of 34 03:58 -00:08 -02:13 04:49

KPR points and Prize Money

IM France is a P-2000 race. It has a total prize purse of 75.000 US$.

Male Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Consistency Overall
1 1 Frederik Van Lierde BEL 08:11:44 08:20:27 00:47:33 04:29:40 02:49:32 60% +21% -19% (17) 5
2 4 James Cunnama ZAF 08:28:52 08:39:20 00:49:26 04:42:11 02:52:15 40% +14% -46% (21) 44
3 38 Stefan Schmid GER 08:28:55 08:37:19 00:52:29 04:38:48 02:52:39 44% +56% -0% (11) 37
4 2 Victor Del Corral ESP 08:29:12 08:35:18 00:55:36 04:43:45 02:44:51 63% +0% -37% (12) 30
5 3 Michael Raelert GER 08:34:57 08:47:45 00:47:47 04:46:16 02:55:55 11% +20% -69% (4) (63)
6 10 Miquel Blanchart Tinto ESP 08:37:10 08:37:29 00:49:20 04:54:25 02:48:25 92% +8% -0% (12) 39
7 6 Andrej Vistica CRO 08:38:55 08:51:13 00:53:05 04:43:44 02:57:06 69% +0% -31% (9) 69
8 12 Herve Faure FRA 08:40:43 08:45:36 00:50:55 04:47:37 02:57:10 45% +0% -55% (8) (58)
9 11 Gwenael Ouilleres FRA 08:46:46 08:56:00 00:51:21 04:57:14 02:53:11 38% +62% -0% (2) 86
10 8 Bertrand Billard FRA 08:47:18 09:03:13 00:48:38 04:42:54 03:10:46 13% +23% -64% (6) 106
11 17 Christian Brader GER 08:48:23 08:54:06 00:56:50 04:53:11 02:53:22 82% +7% -12% (31) 77
12 14 Simon Billeau FRA 08:52:56 08:55:59 00:54:15 04:44:59 03:08:42 52% +0% -48% (16) 85
13 29 Carlos Lopez Diaz ESP 08:53:19 09:05:29 00:47:36 04:53:36 03:07:08 26% +13% -61% (6) 121
14 50 Antony Costes FRA 08:54:54 09:09:41 00:48:21 04:44:02 03:17:30 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (134)
15 16 Olivier Marceau SUI 08:58:22 09:08:47 00:51:21 04:56:02 03:05:59 91% +9% -0% (4) (130)
16 26 Cedric Lassonde FRA 09:03:31 09:11:20 00:55:31 04:54:15 03:08:45 74% +0% -26% (6) 140
17 13 Herve Banti MCO 09:05:51 09:22:19 00:51:37 04:51:35 03:17:38 34% +0% -66% (5) (165)
18 44 Rafael Wyss SUI 09:07:53 09:15:08 00:59:34 04:56:10 03:07:09 87% +13% -0% (16) 154
19 32 Wouter Monchy BEL 09:16:58 09:38:32 00:51:06 05:00:54 03:19:58 48% +52% -0% (2) (210)
20 47 Felipe De Oliveira Manente BRA 09:20:01 09:31:50 00:53:28 05:06:17 03:15:15 23% +9% -68% (7) 192
21 40 Yu Shinozaki JPN 09:24:30 10:05:44 00:56:20 04:54:58 03:28:12 17% +28% -55% (9) 244
22 46 Frederic Garcia FRA 09:25:22 09:40:59 00:56:50 05:12:45 03:10:47 51% +0% -49% (2) (214)
23 15 Guillaume Jeannin FRA 09:28:56 09:44:40 00:51:05 05:01:49 03:31:03 36% +0% -64% (3) (217)
24 24 Ivan Jezko SVK 09:33:05 09:53:53 00:59:07 05:03:58 03:25:01 49% +16% -35% (8) 229
25 39 Matt Shanks USA 09:36:10 09:52:06 01:00:43 05:17:27 03:13:00 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (226)
26 19 Pierre-Yves Facomprez FRA 09:46:18 10:02:30 01:02:55 05:13:25 03:24:57 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (241)
27 28 Ludovic Le Guellec FRA 09:51:56 10:13:02 01:01:05 05:24:43 03:21:09 49% +6% -45% (17) 249
28 43 Remmert Wielinga NED 10:00:43 10:43:37 01:12:04 05:05:57 03:37:42 9% +16% -75% (5) (258)
29 20 Christian Funk GER 10:57:58 11:16:33 01:24:14 05:49:22 03:39:23 38% +0% -62% (4) 265
30 22 German Garrote Borrull ESP 11:05:21 11:32:24 00:57:51 05:36:21 04:26:09 38% +62% -0% (2) (266)
31 34 Marek Nemcik SVK 11:40:06 12:16:25 01:12:22 05:52:40 04:30:04 32% +23% -45% (32) 267
5 Timothy Van Houtem BEL n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
9 Albert Moreno ESP n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
18 Santiago Abad de Agueda ESP n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
21 Romain Garcin FRA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
23 Felix Haupt GER n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
25 Jerome Joussemet FRA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
27 Geert Lauryssen BEL n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
30 Julien Marcq FRA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
31 Martin Charles FRA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
33 Jeremy Morel FRA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
35 Seppe Odeyn BEL n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
36 Robin Pasteur FRA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
37 Kevin Rundstadler FRA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (1 IM Pro race) (n/a)
42 Sven Van Luyck BEL n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
45 Arnaud Guilloux FRA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
48 Alain Djouad-Guibert MOR n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)

Female Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Consistency Overall
1 51 Tine Deckers BEL 09:15:26 09:34:55 00:58:07 05:06:30 03:05:49 48% +11% -41% (17) 37
2 52 Leanda Cave GBR 09:16:14 09:21:19 00:51:02 05:10:38 03:09:34 71% +10% -19% (18) 16
3 68 Kristin Moeller GER 09:28:40 09:33:47 01:03:14 05:22:15 02:58:10 79% +19% -2% (16) 36
4 67 Natascha Badmann SUI 09:33:47 09:33:35 01:01:50 05:10:02 03:16:55 51% +0% -49% (16) 34
5 66 Gurutze Frades Larralde ESP 09:40:21 09:56:03 01:01:59 05:29:18 03:04:05 23% +77% -0% (5) 75
6 65 Karen Thibodeau CAN 09:50:05 09:57:49 00:53:51 05:30:40 03:20:34 49% +0% -51% (9) 81
7 56 Tine Holst DEN 09:50:51 10:02:39 01:04:01 05:19:58 03:21:52 72% +28% -0% (11) 88
8 64 Erin Spitler USA 09:51:17 10:18:46 01:06:12 05:18:09 03:21:56 21% +41% -38% (6) 117
9 57 Tineke Van den Berg NED 09:51:25 10:08:47 01:05:22 05:17:16 03:23:48 45% +20% -36% (4) 101
10 58 Kate Comber GBR 09:55:34 10:12:02 00:55:18 05:32:18 03:22:59 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (106)
11 60 Corina Hengartner SUI 09:56:42 10:21:23 01:02:08 05:25:49 03:23:46 32% +38% -30% (3) (126)
12 54 Caroline Livesey GBR 09:57:26 10:02:35 01:00:36 05:26:31 03:25:19 79% +0% -21% (5) 86
13 59 Leslie DiMichele Miller USA 09:59:51 10:11:01 00:59:29 05:33:54 03:21:28 100% +0% -0% (2) (102)
14 62 Stephanie Reymond FRA 10:02:52 10:19:54 01:05:02 05:27:16 03:25:33 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (123)
15 63 Maggie Rusch USA 10:07:47 10:25:00 01:01:40 05:30:39 03:30:28 43% +27% -30% (4) 141
16 55 Nicole Woysch GER 10:19:42 10:54:32 00:58:52 05:32:56 03:42:53 22% +3% -75% (21) (163)
61 Michaela Renner-Schneck GER n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (1 IM Pro race) (n/a)
69 Emma Bilham SUI n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
70 Petra Krejcova CZE n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

Frederik Van Lierde has had great results in France and has won the race three times. He’s the clear favorite based on the numbers, but his season so far hasn’t been going well: He finished 70.3 Puerto Rico in 10th place and crashed at Challenge Fuerteventura, breaking his collar-bone. He’s recovered enough to start in France but it’s unclear how good his form will be. He’s followed by a number of athletes looking for Kona points: Stefan Schmid (3.280, but also on the list for IM Brasil), James Cunnama (3.225) and Michael Raelert (3.220) are close to the projected cutoff and should be fine with Top6 finish. Victor Del Corral has been injured and had to withdraw from racing Kona and his recent 70.3 results have not yet shown the fantastic runner that he was in 2013.

  • Frederik Van Lierde: 53% (1-1)
  • Stefan Schmid: 17% (5-1)
  • James Cunnama: 13% (7-1)
  • Victor Del Corral: 9% (10-1)
  • Michael Raelert: 3% (30-1)

Female Race Participants

Tine Deckers is going for her fifth win in France, she’s had some great results at the start of the year by winning 70.3s in Puerto Rico and Pays d’Aix. She faces strong competition by Leanda Cave who wants to erase the memory of her DQ when she didn’t have her bib number during the bike ride. As Kristin Möller is racing IM Brasil she is unlikely to start in Nice, Gurutze Frades is on the Brasil list as well. If both won’t start, then the likeliest candidate for the third podium spot is Natascha Badmann who’d love to race Kona as a 49-year old Pro. She would need a second place finish to secure a slot.

  • Leanda Cave: 46% (1-1)
  • Tine Deckers: 31% (2-1)
  • Kristin Moeller: 14% (6-1)
  • Natascha Badmann: 4% (21-1)
  • Gurutze Frades Larralde: 3% (36-1)

Emma Bilham races her first Ironman race, as part of her prep she won 70.3 Barcelona with a dominating bike split.

Challenge Venice 2016 (June 5th) – Predictions

ChallengeItalyLogoChallenge Venice is a new race on the calendar.

Prize Money

Challenge Venice has a total prize purse of 38.000 EUR.

Male Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Consistency Overall
1 1 Massimo Cigana ITA 08:49:14 08:47:06 00:57:52 04:46:12 03:00:09 100% +0% -0% (6) 60
2 4 Dirk Wijnalda NED 08:55:03 09:02:24 00:57:34 04:52:23 03:00:06 52% +47% -1% (18) 98
3 11 Sergio Marques POR 08:55:06 08:55:13 00:55:08 04:58:13 02:56:45 74% +6% -20% (35) 78
4 6 Teemu Lemmettylae FIN 09:00:35 08:59:46 00:58:02 04:53:54 03:03:39 88% +10% -2% (13) (93)
5 3 Petr Vabrousek CZE 09:06:04 09:04:25 00:56:27 04:56:24 03:08:13 75% +1% -24% (93) 108
6 5 Steven Osborne GBR 09:12:27 09:27:53 00:55:40 05:14:47 02:57:00 3% +91% -6% (13) 176
  7 Zoltan Petsuk HUN n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
  8 Michael Patrick Alonso Mckernan ESP n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
  9 Alex Diaconu ROM n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
  10 Francesco Cauz ITA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
  12 Malte Bruns GER n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)

Female Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Consistency Overall
1 13 Erika Csomor HUN 09:38:28 09:33:38 00:59:02 05:16:33 03:17:53 78% +0% -22% (32) 34
2 2 Martina Dogana ITA 09:46:15 09:45:28 00:58:37 05:23:44 03:18:54 99% +1% -0% (11) 51
3 15 Yvette Grice GBR 10:05:23 10:06:47 00:56:10 05:37:13 03:27:00 62% +26% -12% (23) 94
4 14 Carla Van Rooijen NED 10:12:50 10:19:27 01:13:07 05:28:53 03:25:50 66% +34% -0% (5) 117
5 17 Vanessa Pereira POR 10:36:34 10:44:23 01:03:41 05:45:44 03:42:09 48% +0% -52% (9) 160
6 16 Deborah Van Gossum BEL 11:42:54 11:57:01 00:57:01 06:06:55 04:33:58 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (165)

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

  • Massimo Cigana: 53% (1-1)
  • Dirk Wijnalda: 20% (4-1)
  • Sergio Marques: 14% (6-1)
  • Teemu Lemmettylae: 9% (10-1)
  • Petr Vabrousek: 3% (32-1)

Female Race Participants

  • Martina Dogana: 46% (1-1)
  • Erika Csomor: 43% (1-1)
  • Yvette Grice: 7% (14-1)
  • Carla Van Rooijen: 3% (39-1)

Ironman Lanzarote 2016 – Analyzing Results

Race Conditions

As has to be expected by the tough course in Lanzarote, the race was quite slow. An adjustment of -23:21 is easily 40 minutes slower than Austria, Roth, Copenhagen or Barcelona, mainly because of the hard bike course (adjustment of -20:07). This year’s edition was maybe two or three minutes slower (again mainly because of the bike) than what is “normal” for IM Lanzarote.

Male Race Results

Jan Frodeno started the race well: He had the fastest swim of the day but then lost roughly two minutes in T1 in order to fix some issue with his helmet. (He also had some issues with the same or very similar helmet in Frankfurt.) While Johann Ackermann was leading the bike, a lot of good runners were within minutes. After T2, Jan was quickly back in the lead, but Jesse Thomas had paced the swim and bike well, had the best run of the day, was able to overtake Jan and continue his perfect IM record by winning IM Lanzarote. Jan validated his Kona slot with a solid second place finish while David McNamee had to fight hard for the third spot on the podium.

Christopher Baird had the best relative race of the day – the best bike split and a 2:47 run was more than an hour quicker than expected and good for fourth. Ivan Rana finished fifth while Timo Bracht couldn’t quite find the run speed to finish better than sixth.

Jesse, Jan and David are now safe for a July Kona slot, while Ivan is “on the bubble”. Timo and the rest of the finishers still need more points.

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to expected Prize Money
1 Jesse Thomas USA 00:50:55 04:58:33 02:46:56 08:42:33 -04:26 US$ 5000
2 Jan Frodeno GER 00:46:52 04:58:18 02:50:03 08:44:38 14:35 US$ 2750
3 David McNamee GBR 00:47:03 05:01:39 02:51:51 08:46:36 -03:19 US$ 1750
4 Christopher Baird USA 00:55:11 04:57:27 02:47:54 08:48:35 -1:01:14 US$ 1250
5 Ivan Rana ESP 00:47:04 05:02:34 02:54:35 08:50:09 02:19 US$ 1000
6 Timo Bracht GER 00:50:55 04:58:35 02:56:59 08:52:47 06:56 US$ 750
7 Miquel Blanchart Tinto ESP 00:50:57 05:07:15 02:54:35 08:58:21 -02:47
8 Roman Deisenhofer GER 00:52:41 04:59:05 03:03:51 09:02:33 -30:52
9 Diego Van Looy BEL 01:04:24 05:05:35 02:52:10 09:11:22 n/a
10 Erik-Simon Strijk NED 00:52:44 05:10:24 03:03:38 09:13:56 02:04
11 Karl-Johan Danielsson SWE 00:50:45 05:12:10 03:10:44 09:20:12 -02:18
12 Nicholas Ward Munoz GBR 00:54:37 05:20:18 02:59:35 09:22:09 02:58
13 Marcel Bischof GER 00:56:47 05:15:36 03:06:54 09:26:56 -09:25
14 Marcus Hultgren SWE 00:58:26 05:14:59 03:08:58 09:29:55 -24:13
15 Andrey Lyatskiy RUS 00:52:46 05:27:18 03:04:23 09:31:39 05:54
16 Esben Hovgaard DEN 00:54:39 05:13:36 03:20:24 09:35:07 25:51
17 Till Schramm GER 00:56:24 05:23:04 03:09:20 09:35:52 -21:41
18 Mikita Hryhoryeu POL 00:52:12 05:25:40 03:08:41 09:35:56 14:22
19 Michael Louys BEL 01:03:10 05:15:49 03:17:48 09:45:12 -14:06
20 Frederic Garcia FRA 00:56:35 05:31:39 03:12:58 09:49:23 n/a
21 Armin Atzlinger AUT 00:57:01 05:39:03 03:06:48 09:53:59 -18:06
22 Eneko Elosegui ESP 00:58:28 05:23:41 03:41:35 10:10:43 15:55
23 Gilian Oriet SUI 00:57:22 05:30:54 03:41:13 10:18:12 03:54
24 Graeme Stewart GBR 00:55:41 05:55:59 03:19:17 10:19:48 56:33
25 Rob Bobbaers BEL 01:00:44 05:29:01 03:47:56 10:26:57 n/a
26 John Manuel Galindo Rooney ESP 00:50:58 06:04:56 03:29:13 10:33:32 34:00
27 Enric Gussinyer ESP 00:52:21 05:52:03 03:41:26 10:35:21 42:32
Johann Ackermann GER 00:47:00 04:59:17 DNF
Stephen Bayliss GBR 00:46:57 05:24:03 DNF
Carlos Lopez Diaz ESP 00:46:58 05:29:47 DNF
Craig Twigg GBR 00:52:50 05:34:41 DNF
Jim Thijs BEL 00:54:41 06:06:29 DNF

Female Race Results

For a long time, Lucy Charles was leading the field in her Pro IM debut. She swam with the men’s lead group, her 47:11 is a new swim course record. She maintained the lead on the bike, but defending champion Diana Riesler was closing the gap. But the fastest bike of the day was posted by Tine Holst who also stormed to the lead on the run. Towards the end Alexandra Tondeur was getting closer with the best run of the day, but Tine won her first Ironman race in front of Alexandra. Lucy Charles managed to finish third, she overtook Diana Riesler who was cramping towards the end and finished fourth. Caroline Livesey finished fifth. Alyssa Godesky has recovered from her crash in Wanaka to finish the day with a good 3:21 marathon and sixth place.

With Lanzarote only Tine managed to score enough points to be safe for a Kona slot. Alexandra Tondeur is “on the bubble”, while the others will need to race again and score more points.

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to expected Prize Money
1 Tine Holst DEN 01:01:15 05:34:25 03:19:48 10:02:35 -23:37 US$ 5000
2 Alexandra Tondeur BEL 01:03:00 05:42:36 03:10:26 10:04:53 -03:29 US$ 2750
3 Lucy Charles GBR 00:47:11 05:48:36 03:27:40 10:10:13 n/a US$ 1750
4 Diana Riesler GER 00:56:51 05:40:19 03:40:02 10:24:52 31:24 US$ 1250
5 Caroline Livesey GBR 00:58:53 05:45:22 03:34:03 10:28:32 06:51 US$ 1000
6 Alyssa Godesky USA 01:00:22 06:01:51 03:21:52 10:32:40 -12:06 US$ 750
7 Anne Jensen DEN 01:03:28 05:52:17 03:40:25 10:44:16 -08:07
Saleta Castro Nogueira ESP 00:54:48 05:49:31 DNF
Nicole Woysch GER 01:03:30 06:36:28 DNF

Ironman Brasil (May 29th) – Predictions

IMBRA_Logo Update May 28th: After the Pro briefing and thanks to a tweet by Witsup, we know that a few females won’t be racing, namely Kirsty Jahn, Mackenzie Madison, Molly Roohi, Tine Holst and Alexandra Moura. (I haven’t seen similar information for the men.)

Previous Winners

Year Male Winner Time Female Winner Time
2005 Olaf Sabatschus (GER) 08:50:37 Joanna Zeiger (USA) 09:31:43
2006 Oscar Galindez (ARG) 08:15:19 Lisbeth Kristensen (DEN) 09:20:47
2007 Oscar Galindez (ARG) 08:21:09 Nina Kraft (GER) 09:12:40
2008 Eduardo Sturla (ARG) 08:28:24 Fernanda Keller (BRA) 09:42:50
2009 Eduardo Sturla (ARG) 08:13:39 Dede Griesbauer (USA) 09:10:15
2010 Luke McKenzie (AUS) 08:07:38 Tereza Macel (CZE) 09:19:12
2011 Eduardo Sturla (ARG) 08:13:12 Amy Marsh (USA) 09:07:49
2012 Ezequiel Morales (ARG) 08:22:40 Sofie Goos (BEL) 09:17:42
2013 Timothy O’Donnell (USA) 08:01:32 Amanda Stevens (USA) 09:05:53
2014 Igor Amorelli (BRA) 08:07:54 Sara Gross (CAN) 08:56:35
2015 Marino Vanhoenacker (BEL) 07:53:44 Ariane Monticeli (BRA) 08:59:08

Last Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Marino Vanhoenacker BEL 00:48:31 04:11:23 02:49:38 07:53:44
2 Timothy O’Donnell USA 00:47:03 04:19:26 02:45:52 07:55:56
3 Brent McMahon CAN 00:47:02 04:19:01 02:47:08 07:56:55

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Ariane Monticeli BRA 01:00:18 04:57:59 02:56:28 08:59:08
2 Elizabeth Lyles USA 00:57:49 04:54:31 03:03:04 09:00:31
3 Amanda Stevens USA 00:51:15 04:57:32 03:05:47 09:01:27

Course Records

Leg Gender Record Athlete Date
Total overall 07:53:44 Marino Vanhoenacker 2015-05-31
Swim overall 00:42:26 Luke McKenzie 2010-05-30
Bike overall 04:11:23 Marino Vanhoenacker 2015-05-31
Run overall 02:44:31 Matt Trautman 2015-05-31
Total female 08:56:35 Sara Gross 2014-05-25
Swim female 00:45:48 Dede Griesbauer 2010-05-30
Bike female 04:46:38 Jessie Donavan 2014-05-25
Run female 02:56:28 Ariane Monticeli 2015-05-31

Course Rating

The Course Rating for IM Brasil is 18:12.

Race Adjustments for IM Brasil

Year Adjustment Swim Adj. Bike Adj. Run Adj. # of Finishers Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating
2006 17:58 01:59 04:22 02:24 37 17:58 01:59 04:22 02:24
2007 14:36 -00:17 06:48 02:59 40 16:17 00:51 05:35 02:41
2008 09:37 -06:37 11:32 01:25 45 14:04 -01:38 07:34 02:16
2009 17:43 -00:30 09:27 04:57 39 14:59 -01:21 08:02 02:56
2010 21:43 04:13 09:54 01:16 42 16:20 -00:14 08:25 02:36
2011 20:54 n/a n/a n/a 29 17:05 -00:14 08:25 02:36
2012 16:21 02:26 21:44 -05:16 32 16:59 00:12 10:38 01:17
2013 16:51 02:40 16:25 03:59 41 of 45 16:58 00:33 11:27 01:41
2014 23:43 00:24 22:05 05:36 34 of 40 17:43 00:32 12:47 02:10
2015 22:37 -00:06 17:43 04:00 33 of 47 18:12 00:28 13:20 02:22

KPR points and Prize Money

IM Brasil is a P-4000 race and offers automatic qualifier slots for the winners. It has a total prize purse of 150.000 US$.

Male Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Consistency Overall
1 3 Brent McMahon CAN 08:01:58 08:16:31 00:46:38 04:21:30 02:48:50 100% +0% -0% (4) 3
2 30 Ronnie Schildknecht SUI 08:13:05 08:27:11 00:51:27 04:24:59 02:51:39 70% +1% -29% (26) 17
3 31 Stefan Schmid GER 08:13:44 08:37:19 00:51:39 04:23:08 02:53:57 44% +56% -0% (11) 43
4 10 Tim Don GBR 08:18:48 08:37:18 00:47:29 04:32:10 02:54:09 100% +0% -0% (2) (43)
5 28 Paul Matthews AUS 08:21:40 08:43:42 00:46:00 04:26:40 03:04:00 17% +0% -83% (8) 65
6 14 Chris McDonald AUS 08:22:26 08:44:04 00:52:45 04:25:59 02:58:42 62% +8% -30% (41) 68
7 4 Guilherme Manocchio BRA 08:23:00 08:45:40 00:49:21 04:30:04 02:58:34 61% +35% -4% (10) 74
8 15 Daniel Fontana ITA 08:24:15 08:46:08 00:48:35 04:31:59 02:58:40 61% +0% -39% (10) (76)
9 5 Mike Aigroz SUI 08:24:24 08:45:52 00:47:49 04:31:24 03:00:11 58% +4% -38% (20) 75
10 23 Kevin Collington USA 08:24:59 08:53:07 00:49:14 04:35:39 02:55:06 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (96)
11 29 Pedro Gomes POR 08:25:50 08:46:53 00:50:46 04:34:17 02:55:48 59% +6% -35% (21) 77
12 7 Anton Blokhin UKR 08:29:50 08:52:20 00:48:09 04:35:01 03:01:40 66% +3% -31% (18) 95
13 6 Frank Silvestrin BRA 08:31:35 09:03:31 00:47:59 04:36:43 03:01:54 46% +43% -11% (6) 133
14 22 Harry Wiltshire GBR 08:33:45 08:58:44 00:47:08 04:37:36 03:04:01 26% +32% -42% (14) 115
15 8 Mario De Elias ARG 08:36:30 09:04:46 00:50:58 04:44:21 02:56:11 49% +25% -26% (5) 145
16 27 Nick Baldwin SEY 08:40:35 09:02:44 00:51:41 04:36:55 03:06:59 55% +0% -45% (15) 129
17 9 Thiago Vinhal BRA 08:41:26 09:05:16 00:48:31 04:53:48 02:54:07 81% +0% -19% (9) 149
18 32 Will Clarke GBR 08:45:46 09:15:03 00:49:34 04:34:31 03:16:41 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (186)
19 26 Michael Davidson ZAF 08:52:12 09:13:33 00:55:57 04:45:00 03:06:15 54% +0% -46% (4) 180
20 20 Felipe De Oliveira Manente BRA 08:56:42 09:31:50 00:52:06 04:45:37 03:13:59 23% +9% -68% (7) 228
21 13 Brent Mcburney USA 09:17:56 10:04:49 00:57:34 04:55:46 03:19:36 22% +41% -38% (4) (279)
22 19 Fabio Carvalho BRA 09:18:00 10:10:53 00:46:47 05:00:31 03:25:42 3% +0% -97% (8) (285)
11 Alexandre Aguiar Moura BRA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated 0% +0% -100% (2) (n/a)
16 Danilo Melo BRA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
17 Diego Serda ARG n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
21 Fellipe Santos BRA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
24 Luis Henrique Ohde BRA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
25 Marcus Vinicius Fernandes BRA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)

Female Race Participants

Also have a look at my profile of Liz Lyles.

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Consistency Overall
1 64 Elizabeth Lyles USA 09:06:45 09:27:30 00:56:07 05:00:28 03:05:10 50% +13% -37% (13) 23
2 51 Ariane Monticeli BRA 09:10:50 09:50:18 00:59:57 05:03:05 03:02:48 42% +35% -23% (13) 66
3 62 Caitlin Snow USA 09:15:15 09:34:56 00:55:38 05:09:36 03:05:01 64% +22% -14% (21) 41
4 75 Mareen Hufe GER 09:15:23 09:35:34 00:59:56 04:51:04 03:19:23 82% +6% -12% (20) 42
5 71 Kristin Moeller GER 09:15:58 09:33:47 01:02:53 05:06:45 03:01:21 79% +19% -2% (16) 39
6 72 Laurel Wassner USA 09:22:17 09:56:35 00:53:05 05:11:25 03:12:47 60% +0% -40% (7) 81
7 66 Gurutze Frades Larralde ESP 09:24:56 09:56:03 01:01:20 05:12:05 03:06:31 23% +77% -0% (5) 80
8 70 Kirsty Jahn CAN 09:26:12 10:03:43 00:58:57 05:12:20 03:09:55 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (96)
9 53 Mackenzie Madison USA 09:26:59 09:49:27 00:57:55 05:04:23 03:19:41 69% +0% -31% (11) 64
10 74 Lucie Reed CZE 09:27:56 09:47:55 00:50:48 05:07:40 03:24:28 62% +0% -38% (23) 62
11 69 Karina Ottosen DEN 09:31:05 10:03:57 00:57:38 05:05:19 03:23:09 24% +63% -13% (9) 97
12 76 Mariana Andrade BRA 09:33:58 10:23:09 00:59:19 04:58:10 03:31:30 20% +29% -51% (10) 143
13 65 Erin Spitler USA 09:35:34 10:18:46 01:05:23 05:00:57 03:24:14 21% +41% -38% (6) 129
14 52 Brooke Brown CAN 09:36:13 09:57:47 01:01:55 05:08:04 03:21:14 52% +0% -48% (6) 86
15 57 Saleta Castro Nogueira ESP 09:37:28 10:17:08 00:54:59 05:13:03 03:24:27 53% +47% -0% (8) 124
16 55 Vanessa Raw GBR 09:39:18 10:11:34 00:53:21 05:06:55 03:34:03 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (115)
17 77 Molly Roohi USA 09:54:49 10:16:54 01:04:12 05:17:31 03:28:05 100% +0% -0% (4) (122)
18 67 Helena Herrero Gomez ESP 10:02:56 10:24:55 01:00:15 05:37:44 03:19:57 78% +0% -22% (4) 152
61 Bruna Mahn BRA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

A couple of athletes on the start list (such as Chris McDonald who raced Texas) are unlikely to start, but most of the pre-race favorites are committed to race in Florianopolis. Brent McMahon has had a number of really strong results including a third place in Brasil 2015 (behind Marino Vanhoenacker and Tim O’Donnell who won’t be racing Brasil this year). Stefan Schmid ended his 2015 season with a win in Cozumel and just needs a few more KPR points to secure his slot. Ronnie Schildknecht has already raced IM South Africa (finishing 9th), he also needs a few more points if he wants to return to Kona.

Behind these three athletes there is a number of athletes that are looking for a good result and the corresponding KPR points. Paul Matthews has been struggling a bit since racing Kona 2014, he was 17th in Brasil last year followed by two DNFs. As usual Tim Don has scored a ton of points in 70.3 races, he probably just needs to finish to secure his Kona ticket. Racing in his home country, Guillermo Manocchio will try to race at the same level as when he won IM Copenhagen last summer.

  • Brent McMahon: 36% (2-1)
  • Stefan Schmid: 26% (3-1)
  • Ronnie Schildknecht: 14% (6-1)
  • Paul Matthews: 8% (12-1)
  • Chris McDonald: 5% (18-1)
  • Guilherme Manocchio: 4% (24-1)
  • Tim Don: 2% (55-1)
Will Clarke is moving up from the 70.3 distance. With IM Lanzarote 2015 his debut IM wasn’t a good experience, but he has taken some time to regroup and it will be interesting to see how he’ll be able to perform.

Female Race Participants

Earlier versions of the startlist had a lot of names that were also racing in Texas, now the field is taking a clearer shape. Liz Lyles (second last year) is the pre-race favorite in front of defending champion Ariane Monticelli. Caitlin Snow, Mareen Hufe and Kristin Moller are strong podium contenders.

  • Elizabeth Lyles: 37% (2-1)
  • Ariane Monticeli: 24% (3-1)
  • Mareen Hufe: 14% (6-1)
  • Caitlin Snow: 10% (9-1)
  • Kristin Moeller: 6% (16-1)
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