Race

Race Conditions

The shortened bike course makes a comparison with other Texas races very hard and I won’t consider this year’s results for my ratings or for course records. Linearly scaling the bike times from 94 to 112 miles doesn’t yield valid “full-distance times” – race times that are shorter by roughly 40 minutes create a different race dynamic. Nonetheless, I have analyzed the scaled race splits in the same way as for a “valid” IM. The splits are colored accordingly and a “diff to expected” is shown to indicate on how good some times have been. Of course all this analysis has to be taken with a grain of salt, but here are a few additional observations:

• The male winning time by Patrick Lange would correspond to a sub-8 time, the female winning time by Julia Gajer to a sub-9 finish.
• The last minute changes to the swim course didn’t have a major influence on the swim times – a swim adjustment of -1:39 is almost exactly the Texas average of -1:27.
• Lauren Brandon had the fastest swim overall. (This is the first time that a female had the fastest swim since Sweden 2013, when Jodie Swallow lead the field.)
• Most reports indicate that the new bike course wasn’t quite as hard to follow as anticipated, but there were a few tricky sections and also some car traffic on the course. Andy Starykowicz’s fastest bike time would roughly correspond to a 4:04 – very fast, but “almost normal” for Andy. Looking at the whole field, the bike times were quite comparable to the times we have seen in earlier years, maybe they would have been quicker by four to five minutes than in the past.
• With the shortened bike course I also expected quicker run times. Some athletes had great runs – Patrick Lange’s winning marathon of 2:40:01 would have broken Matt Hanson’s course record, and there were two sub-3 runs in the women’s field by Lisa Roberts (3rd, fastest run split of 2:59:03) and Jodie Robertson (2nd). But we’ve also seen some “explosions” on the run: In addition to Andy Starykowicz who DNF’d, Lauren Brandon just broke four hours and Matt Hanson had to walk after running himself into 3rd place – eventually finishing 23rd. The adjustment would have been similar to what we’ve seen in Texas in the last few years.

Male Race Results

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Time	Diff to expected	Prize Money
1	Patrick Lange	GER	00:48:57	03:39:28	02:40:01	07:13:13	n/a	US$ 30000
2	Matthew Russell	USA	00:56:41	03:31:47	02:48:14	07:21:56	-34:13	US$ 15000
3	Terenzo Bozzone	NZL	00:48:59	03:39:27	02:52:53	07:25:55	-15:36	US$ 8000
4	Jeremy Jurkiewicz	FRA	00:48:51	03:39:55	02:55:07	07:28:30	-19:38	US$ 6500
5	Clemente Alonso McKernan	ESP	00:48:43	03:44:42	02:51:53	07:30:59	-02:24	US$ 5000
6	Justin Daerr	USA	00:54:16	03:37:28	02:54:56	07:31:39	-22:18	US$ 3500
7	Chris McDonald	AUS	00:55:59	03:32:30	02:59:55	07:33:08	-23:12	US$ 2500
8	Stephen Kilshaw	CAN	00:55:20	03:33:16	03:00:29	07:34:01	-41:55	US$ 2000
9	Matic Modic	SLO	00:56:48	03:40:53	02:52:18	07:35:08	-32:12	US$ 1500
10	Callum Millward	NZL	00:51:02	03:38:32	03:01:15	07:36:23	01:37	US$ 1000
11	Barrett Brandon	USA	00:48:45	03:40:02	03:06:38	07:40:37	-07:34
12	Antony Costes	FRA	00:48:55	03:39:50	03:08:56	07:42:03	-19:45
13	Eneko Llanos	ESP	00:49:31	03:38:37	03:09:23	07:42:41	11:02
14	Michael Ruenz	GER	00:56:40	03:42:15	02:58:28	07:42:50	-12:14
15	Mauro Baertsch	SUI	00:56:24	03:44:02	02:59:26	07:45:31	-15:42
16	Francisco Serrano	MEX	00:53:40	03:40:18	03:07:17	07:45:46	-16:06
17	Eric Limkemann	USA	00:49:54	03:38:37	03:15:00	07:48:42	01:50
18	Samuel Huerzeler	SUI	00:54:33	03:42:19	03:10:29	07:53:56	-22:45
19	Matthew Curbeau	USA	00:56:44	03:44:06	03:08:10	07:54:32	-32:58
20	Jordan Rapp	USA	00:54:25	03:33:47	03:22:01	07:55:18	17:55
21	Jaroslav Kovacic	SLO	00:49:02	03:43:02	03:21:41	07:59:12	-06:30
22	Richie Cunningham	AUS	00:53:40	03:46:17	03:14:35	08:00:17	22:01
23	Matt Hanson	USA	00:54:24	03:40:33	03:27:58	08:07:07	20:04
24	Kirill Kotshegarov	EST	00:54:27	03:33:15	03:37:56	08:11:30	18:20
25	Douglas MacLean	USA	00:56:54	03:55:57	03:14:45	08:16:04	-08:28
26	Jozsef Major	HUN	01:02:47	03:53:15	03:14:24	08:16:36	16:13
27	Patrick Jaberg	SUI	00:56:37	03:43:35	03:33:52	08:19:33	13:14
28	Patrick Schuster	USA	01:07:40	03:48:29	03:21:36	08:23:50	-19:05
29	Denis Sketako	SLO	00:56:34	03:55:54	03:28:54	08:26:09	15:05
30	Andres Darricau	Arg	00:56:27	03:52:25	03:44:58	08:39:51	01:45
31	Mike Schifferle	SUI	01:04:39	03:44:13	03:44:27	08:42:07	33:35
32	Jonathan Fecik	USA	00:56:33	03:55:45	03:50:27	08:48:40	-08:51
33	Aaron Gray	USA	00:56:31	03:55:18	04:54:59	09:53:08	n/a
34	Scott Neyedli	GBR	00:53:58	03:55:03	05:26:34	10:22:40	1:27:54
	Andrew Starykowicz	USA	00:48:51	03:24:44		DNF
	Harry Wiltshire	GBR	00:48:48	03:39:54		DNF
	Swen Sundberg	GER	00:54:31	03:34:18		DNF
	Nils Frommhold	GER	00:49:09	03:44:11		DNF
	Jonathan Shearon	USA	00:56:43	03:45:00		DNF
	Pedro Gomes	POR	00:53:55	03:49:40		DNF
	Michael Weiss	AUT	00:56:30	03:49:30		DNF
	Trevor Delsaut	FRA	00:55:23	04:04:04		DNF
	Balazs Csoke	HUN	00:48:54	04:11:25		DNF
	AJ Baucco	USA	00:53:54			DNF

As the winner of the North American Regional championship Patrick Lange receives an Automatic Qualifier spot. Matt Russell and Terenzo Bozzone now have enough points to be safe for a July slot. Eneko Llanos hasn’t added too many points with his 13th place finish, but he validated his slot and is also safe now. Callum Millward is on the bubble, at 3.580 points he’s right at my projected cutoff of 3.500 points. He already has five results (his worst is 435 points), so it won’t be easy to improve his total. Jeremy Juekiewicz has 2.530 points (but only one IM and one 70.3 race), so he should be able to add some more points if he wants to qualify.

Female Race Results

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Time	Diff to expected	Prize Money
1	Julia Gajer	GER	00:54:51	04:01:44	03:08:49	08:11:01	-09:39	US$ 30000
2	Jodie Robertson	USA	01:07:21	04:01:55	02:59:26	08:16:30	n/a	US$ 15000
3	Lisa Roberts	USA	01:06:52	04:06:18	02:59:03	08:17:58	-16:40	US$ 8000
4	Kelly Williamson	USA	00:54:49	04:17:11	03:04:33	08:22:06	-08:51	US$ 6500
5	Alicia Kaye	USA	00:52:24	04:07:15	03:23:31	08:29:29	n/a	US$ 5000
6	Christine Hammond	USA	00:55:07	04:13:02	03:18:57	08:32:37	-25:54	US$ 3500
7	Jessica Meyers	USA	00:57:51	04:10:34	03:24:42	08:39:11	-20:44	US$ 2500
8	Emma-Kate Lidbury	GBR	00:55:13	04:09:01	03:34:03	08:45:13	07:25	US$ 2000
9	Katy Blakemore	USA	00:54:33	04:16:30	03:29:52	08:46:22	02:07	US$ 1500
10	Jocelyn McCauley	USA	00:57:31	04:02:20	03:41:32	08:47:09	-14:01	US$ 1000
11	Heather Leiggi	USA	01:07:01	04:03:20	03:31:48	08:48:13	-22:05
12	Lauren Brandon	USA	00:48:32	04:02:16	03:56:38	08:52:48	n/a
13	Christine Fletcher	CAN	01:02:22	04:09:37	03:33:11	08:53:14	-18:20
14	Bree Wee	USA	00:57:46	04:10:44	03:55:47	09:10:38	26:42
15	Amy Javens	USA	01:12:22	04:02:53	03:50:17	09:12:38	-06:53
16	Terry Casey	USA	01:02:18	04:20:30	04:14:59	09:47:43	-02:48
17	Caroline Martineau	CAN	01:06:58	04:21:07	04:14:51	09:51:37	19:00
18	Carrie Mccoy	USA	01:30:20	04:25:08	03:50:39	09:53:57	n/a
19	Jen Annett	CAN	01:02:54	03:59:39	04:50:02	09:57:53	54:57
20	Angela Kuehnlein	GER	01:07:03	04:25:44	04:19:14	09:58:50	37:47
	Rebekah Keat	AUS	00:53:40	04:05:48		DNF
	Kirsty Jahn	CAN	01:02:15	04:04:21		DNF
	Darbi Roberts	USA	00:54:20	04:16:05		DNF
	Saleta Castro Nogueira	ESP	00:57:43	04:16:36		DNF
	Liz Baugher	USA	00:58:20	04:35:48		DNF

After Kaisa Lehtonen as winner of IM South Africa, Julia Gajer is the second European Automatic Qualifier this year. Julia has raced an amazingly stable race, almost exactly hitting her predicted times, so even if her individual legs were in line with what could be expected, her overall time was a good deal quicker. Lisa Roberts also had a great race. She is well ahead of the projected cutoff of 4.500 points and safe for a July slot. Alicia Kaye has scored well, but needs to add to her 4.340 points if she wants to qualify – another good 70.3 result should be enough for her. Jodie Robertson (3.960) and Emma-Kate Lidbury (3.695, but already 5 results) have to plan how to best get the remaining points needed.

Update May 13th: According to her blog, Jeanne Collonge won’t be able to race, she’s targeting IM France now. Also there are a number of athletes on the startlist for IM Texas, so we may see some late withdrawals in the days before the race.

Update May 18th: According BMC-Etixx Sports Director Ben De Wolf Romain Guillaume won’t start in Lanzarote but is focusing on IM Cairns instead.

Previous Winners

Year	Male Winner	Time	Female Winner	Time
2005	Ain-Alar Juhanson (EST)	08:55:38	Virginia Berasategui (ESP)	10:09:40
2006	Ain-Alar Juhanson (EST)	08:54:14	Karin Thuerig (SUI)	09:52:45
2007	Eneko Llanos (ESP)	08:49:39	Tiina Boman (FIN)	09:58:42
2008	Bert Jammaer (BEL)	08:59:40	Bella Bayliss (GBR)	10:02:30
2009	Bert Jammaer (BEL)	08:54:03	Bella Bayliss (GBR)	09:54:58
2010	Eneko Llanos (ESP)	08:37:43	Catriona Morrison (GBR)	10:03:53
2011	Timo Bracht (GER)	08:30:34	Rachel Joyce (GBR)	09:28:12
2012	Victor Del Corral (ESP)	08:44:39	Michelle Vesterby (DEN)	09:58:06
2013	Faris Al-Sultan (GER)	08:42:40	Kristin Moeller (GER)	09:37:34
2014	Romain Guillaume (FRA)	08:47:39	Lucy Gossage (GBR)	09:41:40
2015	Alessandro Degasperi (ITA)	08:56:49	Diana Riesler (GER)	09:56:03

Last Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Time
1	Alessandro Degasperi	ITA	00:51:10	05:12:12	02:47:15	08:56:49
2	Christian Kramer	GER	00:48:20	05:05:51	02:59:14	08:59:30
3	Mauro Baertsch	SUI	00:52:04	05:10:48	02:54:13	09:04:45

Female Race Results

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Time
1	Diana Riesler	GER	00:55:40	05:37:11	03:16:20	09:56:03
2	Michaela Herlbauer	AUT	00:53:21	05:58:16	03:15:05	10:13:49
3	Caroline Livesey	GBR	00:58:47	05:59:25	03:25:52	10:31:56

Course Records

Leg	Gender	Record	Athlete	Date
Total	overall	08:30:34	Timo Bracht	2011-05-21
Swim	overall	00:46:15	Luc Van Lierde	2006-05-20
Bike	overall	04:40:58	Maik Twelsiek	2010-05-22
Run	overall	02:44:29	Gerrit Schellens	2005-06-04
Total	female	09:28:12	Rachel Joyce	2011-05-21
Swim	female	00:50:40	Hillary Biscay	2010-05-22
Bike	female	05:26:23	Tara Norton	2010-05-22
Run	female	02:58:37	Kristin Moeller	2013-05-18

It’s quite unusual that an overall course record race isn’t showing up in any of the individual legs. This shows that – even more than in other races – the winner in Lanzarote has to have a balanced race across all three legs.

Course Rating

The Course Rating for IM Lanzarote is – 14:36.

Race Adjustments for IM Lanzarote

Year	Adjustment	Swim Adj.	Bike Adj.	Run Adj.	# of Finishers	Rating	Swim Rating	Bike Rating	Run Rating
2006	-07:10	02:21	-20:46	01:20	45	-07:10	02:21	-20:46	01:20
2007	-12:01	-01:04	-09:17	-04:09	40	-09:36	00:39	-15:02	-01:24
2008	-13:09	00:47	-18:11	04:48	47	-10:47	00:41	-16:05	00:40
2009	-09:01	-00:08	-14:46	03:52	44	-10:20	00:29	-15:45	01:28
2010	-07:07	01:33	-09:39	00:08	34	-09:42	00:42	-14:32	01:12
2011	-08:23	02:22	-16:18	05:15	23	-09:29	00:59	-14:50	01:52
2012	-17:54	00:53	-17:29	04:32	22	-10:41	00:58	-15:12	02:15
2013	-19:06	00:22	-19:39	03:19	19 of 31	-11:44	00:53	-15:46	02:23
2014	-23:49	00:50	-18:18	-01:38	37 of 56	-13:04	00:53	-16:03	01:56
2015	-28:18	01:14	-31:00	00:13	29 of 44	-14:36	00:55	-17:32	01:46

KPR points and Prize Money

IM Lanzarote is a P-2000 race. It has a total prize purse of 25.000 US$.

Male Race Participants

Rank	Bib	Name	Nation	Expected Time	Rating	Exp. Swim	Exp. Bike	Exp. Run	Consistency	Overall
1	1	Jan Frodeno	GER	08:21:26	08:07:22	00:45:38	04:44:00	02:46:47	71% +29% -0% (4)	1
2	3	Timo Bracht	GER	08:35:27	08:22:49	00:48:12	04:52:21	02:49:54	79% +10% -10% (25)	8
3	5	Ivan Rana	ESP	08:39:56	08:24:55	00:47:12	04:59:39	02:48:05	83% +10% -6% (9)	11
4	6	Jesse Thomas	USA	08:43:12	08:39:40	00:49:51	04:53:16	02:55:05	n/a (1 IM Pro race)	(55)
5	7	David McNamee	GBR	08:45:23	08:27:09	00:47:15	05:03:52	02:49:16	100% +0% -0% (3)	15
6	4	Miquel Blanchart Tinto	ESP	08:50:32	08:37:51	00:48:02	05:08:23	02:49:07	90% +10% -0% (11)	46
7	2	Romain Guillaume	FRA	08:50:43	08:49:17	00:47:28	04:54:34	03:03:41	54% +24% -22% (26)	82
8	22	Esben Hovgaard	DEN	08:52:23	08:49:38	00:52:09	04:58:13	02:57:01	54% +39% -7% (8)	84
9	50	Marc Duelsen	GER	08:54:23	08:46:17	00:51:37	04:58:12	02:59:35	60% +0% -40% (6)	(75)
10	47	Johann Ackermann	GER	08:55:25	08:53:25	00:48:13	04:57:14	03:04:58	36% +0% -64% (5)	(98)
11	8	Stephen Bayliss	GBR	09:00:56	08:51:07	00:46:58	05:05:00	03:03:58	40% +4% -56% (45)	88
12	35	Erik-Simon Strijk	NED	09:01:58	08:53:11	00:51:48	05:02:42	03:02:28	89% +11% -0% (5)	96
13	9	Nicholas Ward Munoz	GBR	09:05:47	08:54:53	00:53:13	05:10:15	02:57:19	45% +16% -39% (16)	(102)
14	45	Harry Wiltshire	GBR	09:07:50	08:53:24	00:47:08	05:08:47	03:06:56	26% +32% -42% (14)	97
15	24	Karl-Johan Danielsson	SWE	09:08:15	09:03:40	00:50:14	04:55:07	03:17:55	16% +40% -44% (8)	133
16	44	Graeme Stewart	GBR	09:11:38	09:01:49	00:54:18	05:05:37	03:06:43	56% +20% -25% (10)	124
17	34	Carlos Lopez Diaz	ESP	09:11:47	09:00:05	00:46:48	05:09:23	03:10:37	38% +19% -44% (5)	119
18	39	Andrey Lyatskiy	RUS	09:15:33	09:01:02	00:48:23	05:14:42	03:07:29	83% +5% -11% (25)	121
19	36	Mikita Hryhoryeu	POL	09:16:41	09:12:56	00:50:11	05:18:33	03:02:58	n/a (1 IM Pro race)	(177)
20	48	Marcel Bischof	GER	09:21:51	09:17:21	00:55:51	05:13:16	03:07:44	77% +23% -0% (12)	190
21	43	Harry Springall	GBR	09:22:34	09:18:46	00:53:33	05:02:53	03:21:09	n/a (1 IM Pro race)	(194)
22	49	Roman Deisenhofer	GER	09:24:53	09:15:28	00:52:25	05:09:18	03:18:11	59% +41% -0% (3)	186
23	30	Eneko Elosegui	ESP	09:32:34	09:34:05	00:56:42	05:08:07	03:22:45	50% +48% -2% (13)	(230)
24	21	Till Schramm	GER	09:34:15	09:38:23	00:56:11	05:11:38	03:21:26	9% +14% -77% (5)	242
25	46	Craig Twigg	GBR	09:40:05	09:53:38	00:51:57	05:05:19	03:37:49	3% +21% -76% (12)	263
26	23	Marcus Hultgren	SWE	09:43:23	09:35:12	00:56:58	05:24:10	03:17:15	64% +36% -0% (3)	234
27	32	Enric Gussinyer	ESP	09:46:21	09:31:00	00:50:55	05:17:01	03:33:24	86% +0% -14% (6)	223
28	26	Michael Louys	BEL	09:46:54	09:42:38	01:00:58	05:20:22	03:20:34	42% +19% -39% (6)	247
29	29	John Manuel Galindo Rooney	ESP	09:47:41	09:43:39	00:51:33	05:23:47	03:27:22	37% +63% -0% (2)	(250)
30	41	Gilian Oriet	SUI	10:02:59	10:05:22	00:56:53	05:29:07	03:31:59	12% +14% -74% (8)	(275)
31	51	Armin Atzlinger	AUT	10:08:16	10:04:10	00:53:53	05:38:17	03:31:06	n/a (1 IM Pro race)	(275)
32	52	Christopher Baird	USA	11:52:35	11:47:47	01:03:06	06:54:19	03:50:10	n/a (1 IM Pro race)	(300)
33	38	Marek Nemcik	SVK	12:04:20	12:16:25	01:11:17	06:12:24	04:35:39	32% +23% -45% (32)	301
	25	Jim Thijs	BEL	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	n/a (no IM Pro race)	(n/a)
	27	Diego Van Looy	BEL	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	n/a (no IM Pro race)	(n/a)
	28	Rob Bobbaers	BEL	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	n/a (no IM Pro race)	(n/a)
	31	Francisco Fernandez Cortes	ESP	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	n/a (no IM Pro race)	(n/a)
	33	Rayco Marrero Avero	ESP	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	n/a (1 IM Pro race)	(n/a)
	37	Alen Kralj	SVN	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	n/a (no IM Pro race)	(n/a)
	40	Frederic Garcia	FRA	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	n/a (1 IM Pro race)	(n/a)
	42	Dominic Rohan-Gates	GBR	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	0% +0% -100% (2)	(n/a)

Female Race Participants

Rank	Bib	Name	Nation	Expected Time	Rating	Exp. Swim	Exp. Bike	Exp. Run	Consistency	Overall
1	10	Diana Riesler	GER	09:39:22	09:26:27	00:56:36	05:20:49	03:16:57	55% +17% -28% (17)	22
2	17	Alexandra Tondeur	BEL	10:03:56	09:59:52	00:56:57	05:45:30	03:16:29	n/a (1 IM Pro race)	(90)
3	14	Jeanne Collonge	FRA	10:04:03	10:08:28	00:56:59	05:35:55	03:26:09	21% +16% -63% (9)	(105)
4	13	Saleta Castro Nogueira	ESP	10:10:37	10:11:01	00:54:22	05:46:04	03:25:11	53% +47% -0% (8)	110
5	11	Caroline Livesey	GBR	10:14:26	10:06:27	00:59:57	05:43:45	03:25:44	70% +0% -30% (4)	101
6	15	Tine Holst	DEN	10:15:55	10:06:09	01:04:09	05:39:07	03:27:39	89% +11% -0% (10)	100
7	20	Jocelyn Mccauley	USA	10:20:49	10:22:47	00:58:21	05:50:13	03:27:16	41% +0% -59% (4)	(139)
8	18	Nicole Woysch	GER	10:34:38	10:48:03	00:57:23	05:48:58	03:43:17	26% +4% -70% (20)	(177)
9	19	Alyssa Godesky	USA	10:35:03	10:29:50	01:00:55	05:56:47	03:32:21	54% +23% -23% (10)	160
10	12	Anne Jensen	DEN	10:36:48	10:30:47	01:08:01	05:42:00	03:41:47	65% +0% -35% (3)	164
	16	Lucy Charles	GBR	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	n/a (no IM Pro race)	(n/a)

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

Based on the raw numbers, current Kona champion Jan Frodeno is the clear favorite to win the race – he’s got the best swim, bike and run ratings of the whole field. But he’s had a calf injury that forced him to skip IM South Africa and his main focus for Lanzarote will be to validate his automatic qualifier Kona slot, so maybe there is a chance for the other athletes. Timo Bracht would be the favorite in almost any other field, he’s focused on getting the points he needs to qualify for Kona – for him that would mean a Top 3. (Timo currently has 2.320 points.) David McNamee (3.310), Ivan Rana (3.025) and Jesse Thomas (2.545) need to finish just outside the Top 3 to secure a July slot, while Romain Guillaume (1.470) would have to win to punch his Kona ticket.

• Jan Frodeno: 43% (1-1)
• Timo Bracht: 34% (2-1)
• Ivan Rana: 11% (8-1)
• Romain Guillaume: 3% (29-1)
• Jesse Thomas: 3% (32-1)
• David McNamee: 2% (39-1)

Female Race Participants

2015 Lanzarote champion Diana Riesler is the clear favorite to defend her title – and she will need the points to have a shot at July qualifying after her DNF in Kona. The athlete with the most KPR points is Tine Holst (3.185), she’ll need at least a Top3 for a July slot. The next best in the KPR are Alexandra Tondeur (2.630), Saleta Castro (1.375) and Caroline Livesay (1.150) who need a great performance in Lanzarote to keep their Kona chances alive.

• Diana Riesler: 72% (1-1)
• Jeanne Collonge: 8% (12-1)
• Saleta Castro Nogueira: 7% (13-1)
• Tine Holst: 5% (18-1)
• Caroline Livesey: 4% (22-1)
• Alexandra Tondeur: 2% (44-1)

With Lucy Charles there is an interesting new Pro female in the field. Lucy was the fastest female amateur in Kona 2015, and her swim time of 52:20 was a whopping 2:44 than Jodie Swallow’s best Pro swim time. While we can expect Lucy to lead after the swim, she’ll need to step up her bike and run (5:38 and 3:44 in Kona) to hold on to the lead. But she’ll be a factor in the Top 5 for sure, and maybe even for the podium.

Race Conditions

When Challenge Taiwan was raced in 2013 and 2014, it was a pretty quick course, especially on the bike. After taking a breather in 2015, the race was back this year and has been quite a bit slower than in the past. I’m not sure if there have been course changes or if the weather was exceptionally hot this year – in any case the bike was roughly four minutes slower and the run about 12 minutes.

Male Race Results

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Time	Diff to expected	Prize Money
1	Fredrik Croneborg	SWE	00:51:56	04:33:57	02:59:10	08:30:28	-15:18	EUR 8000
2	Dylan McNeice	NZL	00:45:35	04:35:19	03:21:31	08:48:37	-05:06	EUR 5000
3	Patrick Evoe	USA	00:54:22	04:28:55	03:26:35	08:55:56	-05:25	EUR 3500
4	Till Schramm	GER	00:58:38	04:55:01	03:46:23	09:46:59	25:22	EUR 2500
5	Petr Vabrousek	CZE	00:58:44	05:02:44	03:51:14	10:02:39	57:48	EUR 2000
6	Tomas Racek	CZE	01:06:07	06:16:09	06:35:34	14:20:04	n/a

Female Race Results

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Time	Diff to expected	Prize Money
1	Shiao-yu Li	TWN	01:01:07	05:00:43	03:31:31	09:40:05	-25:24	EUR 8000
2	Jessica Fleming	AUS	01:00:50	05:03:33	03:38:22	09:48:48	-03:56	EUR 5000
3	Kathryn Haesner	NZL	00:57:07	05:14:49	03:31:04	09:49:33	xx:-21:08	EUR 3500
4	Vanessa Murray	NZL	00:55:38	05:18:09	03:33:39	09:54:56	02:08	EUR 2500
5	Marina Jurjevic	AUS	01:11:04	05:25:03	04:08:15	10:51:38	34:48	EUR 2000
6	Kathrin Walther	GER	01:00:44	05:26:41	04:52:20	11:28:31	1:20:20

Update May 8th: Sarah Piampiano announced that she has withdrawn from the race, “teetering on the edge [of injury] and wanting to make sure I stay on the healthy side”. Ray Botelho also won’t be starting.

Update May 11th: Amanda Stevens is another DNS. She posted pictures with her right foot in a cast boot. Rachel Jastrebsky also won’t be able to race.

Previous Winners

Year	Male Winner	Time	Female Winner	Time
2011	Eneko Llanos (ESP)	08:08:20	Catriona Morrison (GBR)	08:57:51
2012	Jordan Rapp (USA)	08:10:44	Mary Beth Ellis (USA)	08:54:58
2013	Paul Amey (GBR)	08:25:06	Rachel Joyce (GBR)	08:49:14
2014	Bevan Docherty (NZL)	08:09:37	Kelly Williamson (USA)	08:54:42
2015	Matt Hanson (USA)	08:07:03	Angela Naeth (CAN)	08:55:19

An interesting side note: So far no athlete has been able to win twice in Texas.

Last Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Time
1	Matt Hanson	USA	00:55:02	04:21:25	02:45:47	08:07:03
2	Joe Skipper	GBR	00:55:09	04:10:07	03:04:35	08:16:26
3	Ronnie Schildknecht	SUI	00:55:07	04:24:27	02:55:54	08:21:03

Female Race Results

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Time
1	Angela Naeth	CAN	00:59:35	04:41:38	03:09:13	08:55:19
2	Leanda Cave	GBR	00:53:13	04:47:43	03:12:02	08:58:12
3	Rachel Joyce	GBR	00:53:08	04:52:35	03:14:00	09:05:02

Course Records

Leg	Gender	Record	Athlete	Date
Total	overall	08:07:03	Matt Hanson	2015-05-16
Swim	overall	00:46:20	John Flanagan	2011-05-21
Bike	overall	04:10:07	Joe Skipper	2015-05-16
Run	overall	02:41:38	Matt Hanson	2014-05-17
Total	female	08:49:14	Rachel Joyce	2013-05-18
Swim	female	00:51:49	Kelly Williamson	2014-05-17
Bike	female	04:40:39	Corinne Abraham	2015-05-16
Run	female	02:51:46	Caitlin Snow	2012-05-19

Course Rating

The Course Rating for IM Texas is 11:20.

Race Adjustments for IM Texas

Year	Adjustment	Swim Adj.	Bike Adj.	Run Adj.	# of Finishers	Rating	Swim Rating	Bike Rating	Run Rating
2011	10:52	-02:44	18:09	-01:41	41	10:52	-02:44	18:09	-01:41
2012	12:54	-01:22	15:12	02:45	27	11:53	-02:03	16:40	00:32
2013	07:13	-01:43	15:55	02:23	30 of 46	10:20	-01:56	16:25	01:09
2014	16:45	00:36	16:05	03:51	44 of 55	11:56	-01:18	16:20	01:50
2015	08:56	-01:52	18:23	-03:46	33 of 52	11:20	-01:25	16:45	00:43

Course Changes for 2016

The biggest thing on athlete’s minds is likely the shortened bike course. There is a big construction project on the old bike course and getting sign-off on a new course turned out to be very complicated. For a long time there was no approved bike course and in the absence of any official information rumors spread of the whole race getting cancelled. In addition some strong rain caused flooding in The Woodlands area. This ultimately resulted in a shortened bike course (officially 94 miles instead of 112 miles or roughly 150 km instead of 180) that is also quite complicated. Just looking at the course map can make your head spin. Kona is a very simple bike course, but there are still athletes that make a wrong turn and cut parts of the course (for an example check out my story on Shiao-Yu Li’s Kona in 2015). I just hope that the volunteers help to ensure that all athletes follow the same course. Hopefully the impact of the course on the race results will be limited to a change in race dynamics.

The shortened bike course will result in about 40 to 50 minutes quicker finish times for the Pros. T his will allow athletes to go a bit harder than what would be normal for an Ironman. But of course this is hard to calculate before the race, and overpaying carries the risk of blowing up on the run, especially if things get hot and humid on the run. A well-paced bike ride will also allow for a slightly quicker run than a typical IM, and to win the race you’ll probably have to run sub-2:50 (men) and sub-3 hours for the women in addition to a fast bike. It will be critical to get the pacing right – and no one will have any experience racing these exact distances.

If just linearly scaling the times for the shortened bike (as I have done for my predictions), the impact won’t be very large: The section that is “missing” correspond to roughly three minutes between a fast biker such as Andy Starykowicz and a faster runner (also slower biker compared to Andy) such as Matt Hanson (similar on the female side, comparing Sarah Piampiano and Kelly Williamson). Of course three minutes won’t make a huge difference in the final results, but it can mean the difference between Matt and Kelly running themselves on the podium or fighting for the win.

KPR points and Prize Money

IM Texas is a P-4000 race and has automatic Kona qualifier slots for the male and female winners. It has a total prize purse of 150.000 US$.

Male Race Participants

Rank	Bib	Name	Nation	Expected Time	Rating	Exp. Swim	Exp. Bike	Exp. Run	Consistency	Overall
1	6	Nils Frommhold	GER	07:30:09	08:20:39	00:49:35	03:35:24	03:00:10	78% +0% -22% (7)	6
2	1	Matt Hanson	USA	07:31:37	08:39:22	00:55:04	03:45:48	02:45:45	29% +39% -31% (9)	53
3	3	Eneko Llanos	ESP	07:32:26	08:23:08	00:49:45	03:38:15	02:59:26	90% +0% -10% (24)	9
4	18	Clemente Alonso McKernan	ESP	07:32:47	08:30:54	00:49:17	03:44:35	02:53:54	56% +14% -31% (13)	(23)
5	2	Jordan Rapp	USA	07:34:25	08:28:09	00:53:33	03:36:58	02:58:54	72% +10% -18% (18)	18
6	14	Callum Millward	NZL	07:35:31	08:26:07	00:50:12	03:45:32	02:54:47	74% +0% -26% (4)	14
7	10	Michael Weiss	AUT	07:37:30	08:32:14	00:56:15	03:36:16	02:59:59	89% +11% -0% (13)	28
8	13	Jeff Symonds	CAN	07:38:59	08:31:58	00:52:03	03:52:35	02:49:21	79% +0% -21% (7)	26
9	16	Richie Cunningham	AUS	07:41:31	08:47:05	00:51:01	03:42:31	03:02:59	50% +0% -50% (3)	(76)
10	4	Terenzo Bozzone	NZL	07:42:04	08:32:50	00:49:56	03:45:59	03:01:09	81% +1% -18% (10)	30
11	7	Matthew Russell	USA	07:42:57	08:45:54	00:58:50	03:43:16	02:55:51	52% +33% -15% (37)	73
12	8	Andrew Starykowicz	USA	07:43:49	08:32:48	00:50:51	03:31:17	03:16:42	60% +0% -40% (7)	29
13	5	Justin Daerr	USA	07:43:53	08:50:15	00:54:17	03:46:28	02:58:07	56% +13% -31% (28)	85
14	19	Pedro Gomes	POR	07:44:02	08:41:40	00:53:09	03:48:29	02:57:24	59% +6% -35% (21)	58
15	36	Jeremy Jurkiewicz	FRA	07:46:06	08:44:48	00:49:09	03:51:25	03:00:32	62% +0% -38% (11)	66
16	29	Marc Duelsen	GER	07:46:21	08:46:17	00:54:20	03:44:49	03:02:12	60% +0% -40% (6)	(74)
17	42	Eric Limkemann	USA	07:46:23	08:43:39	00:51:17	03:43:57	03:06:09	50% +32% -18% (4)	63
18	23	Barrett Brandon	USA	07:47:06	08:45:06	00:49:18	03:51:09	03:01:40	60% +0% -40% (5)	68
19	24	Alberto Casadei	ITA	07:48:08	08:49:13	00:49:15	03:53:03	03:00:49	38% +16% -46% (7)	81
20	15	Kirill Kotshegarov	EST	07:48:52	08:49:24	00:55:49	03:44:05	03:03:57	61% +19% -20% (11)	83
21	9	Chris McDonald	AUS	07:49:14	08:46:26	00:54:44	03:45:57	03:03:34	62% +8% -30% (41)	75
22	49	Jonathan Shearon	USA	07:52:10	08:55:15	00:55:06	03:44:46	03:07:18	57% +12% -31% (13)	105
23	46	Michael Ruenz	GER	07:53:18	08:52:33	00:56:25	03:52:10	02:59:42	54% +0% -46% (7)	94
24	28	Trevor Delsaut	FRA	07:54:25	08:59:41	00:55:44	03:52:37	03:01:04	38% +10% -52% (22)	120
25	21	Mauro Baertsch	SUI	07:56:14	08:59:09	00:55:30	03:52:26	03:03:17	45% +32% -23% (9)	118
26	53	Harry Wiltshire	GBR	07:57:35	08:53:24	00:49:39	03:53:03	03:09:53	26% +32% -42% (14)	96
27	45	Scott Neyedli	GBR	07:58:01	08:52:31	00:52:36	03:53:51	03:06:33	55% +5% -40% (18)	(94)
28	17	Balazs Csoke	HUN	07:58:20	09:05:10	00:49:23	03:50:24	03:13:33	56% +10% -34% (22)	150
29	11	Swen Sundberg	GER	07:58:43	08:58:56	00:54:30	03:49:06	03:10:07	55% +1% -44% (17)	116
30	37	Stephen Kilshaw	CAN	07:58:52	09:11:40	00:56:19	03:52:56	03:04:38	59% +40% -1% (8)	177
31	12	Jozsef Major	HUN	07:58:57	08:55:22	00:59:21	03:45:47	03:08:49	76% +5% -19% (30)	106
32	51	Gudmund Snilstveit	NOR	07:58:57	08:59:31	00:58:51	03:45:33	03:09:33	61% +28% -11% (7)	119
33	39	Jaroslav Kovacic	SLO	08:00:31	09:03:45	00:50:57	03:58:04	03:06:31	22% +78% -0% (3)	139
34	44	Matic Modic	SLO	08:01:01	09:04:30	00:57:03	03:52:02	03:06:56	47% +39% -13% (6)	143
35	20	Mike Schifferle	SUI	08:01:54	09:02:14	01:02:01	03:49:53	03:05:00	84% +12% -4% (54)	130
36	48	Francisco Serrano	MEX	08:03:24	09:09:54	00:52:31	03:51:36	03:14:17	100% +0% -0% (1)	(170)
37	25	Antony Costes	FRA	08:04:22	09:09:41	00:50:00	03:45:27	03:23:56	100% +0% -0% (1)	(168)
38	31	Derek Garcia	USA	08:04:40	09:04:29	00:55:17	03:50:09	03:14:14	81% +7% -12% (10)	142
39	35	Patrick Jaberg	SUI	08:05:26	09:04:52	00:55:36	03:53:36	03:11:13	96% +0% -4% (16)	148
40	22	AJ Baucco	USA	08:08:44	09:08:09	00:54:12	03:55:13	03:14:18	64% +0% -36% (7)	160
41	26	Matthew Curbeau	USA	08:09:43	09:25:53	00:56:46	03:51:41	03:16:17	33% +43% -24% (6)	211
42	50	Denis Sketako	SLO	08:13:20	09:17:45	01:00:11	03:53:55	03:14:13	100% +0% -0% (2)	(198)
43	34	Samuel Huerzeler	SUI	08:16:04	09:14:35	00:55:37	04:02:52	03:12:35	100% +0% -0% (5)	188
44	32	Raymond Botelho	USA	08:20:33	09:35:33	00:55:35	03:48:46	03:31:11	32% +36% -31% (14)	241
45	43	Douglas MacLean	USA	08:21:16	09:25:38	00:59:36	04:04:27	03:12:14	83% +5% -12% (13)	210
46	41	Colin Laughery	USA	08:21:22	09:24:43	01:02:09	04:00:08	03:14:05	100% +0% -0% (2)	(209)
47	47	Patrick Schuster	USA	08:30:28	09:42:52	01:04:52	03:55:26	03:25:11	50% +25% -24% (7)	251
48	27	Andres Darricau	Arg	08:32:01	09:44:52	00:56:16	04:09:18	03:21:27	7% +93% -0% (2)	(255)
49	38	Peter Kotland	CZE	08:46:54	09:55:53	01:01:04	04:05:18	03:35:32	54% +26% -21% (21)	269
50	30	Jonathan Fecik	USA	08:55:26	10:05:32	00:59:07	03:55:19	03:56:00	38% +0% -62% (2)	(281)
	33	Aaron Gray	USA	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated		(n/a)
	40	Patrick Lange	GER	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated		(n/a)
	52	Josh Terwoord	USA	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated		(n/a)

Female Race Participants

Rank	Bib	Name	Nation	Expected Time	Rating	Exp. Swim	Exp. Bike	Exp. Run	Consistency	Overall
1	62	Julia Gajer	GER	08:18:48	09:17:12	00:54:47	04:08:13	03:10:48	77% +0% -23% (11)	9
2	61	Kelly Williamson	USA	08:19:16	09:30:43	00:54:41	04:19:49	02:59:46	77% +12% -11% (12)	27
3	64	Sarah Piampiano	USA	08:25:44	09:32:16	01:04:13	04:05:18	03:11:12	41% +47% -12% (14)	32
4	63	Rebekah Keat	AUS	08:29:34	09:25:16	00:55:22	04:11:31	03:17:42	85% +1% -14% (22)	(20)
5	66	Amanda Stevens	USA	08:29:43	09:30:05	00:53:25	04:12:19	03:18:59	60% +21% -19% (17)	26
6	69	Lisa Roberts	USA	08:32:53	09:37:54	01:06:32	04:13:42	03:07:39	76% +3% -21% (16)	41
7	72	Katy Blakemore	USA	08:35:53	09:50:10	00:53:54	04:14:49	03:22:09	67% +13% -20% (8)	65
8	67	Bree Wee	USA	08:36:37	09:48:38	00:55:45	04:13:31	03:22:21	60% +7% -32% (22)	62
9	65	Emma-Kate Lidbury	GBR	08:41:50	09:48:00	00:55:20	04:09:24	03:32:06	100% +0% -0% (2)	(61)
10	90	Darbi Roberts	USA	08:43:04	09:58:23	00:54:45	04:16:54	03:26:25	37% +0% -63% (5)	86
11	78	Kirsty Jahn	CAN	08:43:24	09:57:44	01:01:48	04:22:26	03:14:10	100% +0% -0% (1)	(84)
12	85	Mackenzie Madison	USA	08:45:29	09:49:27	01:00:42	04:15:41	03:24:06	69% +0% -31% (11)	63
13	70	Jen Annett	CAN	08:52:38	10:07:05	01:05:55	04:16:23	03:25:20	34% +34% -32% (4)	103
14	81	Jessica Meyers	USA	08:52:43	10:04:43	01:01:03	04:17:49	03:28:51	100% +0% -0% (5)	95
15	75	Saleta Castro	ESP	08:54:43	10:11:01	00:57:39	04:23:03	03:29:01	53% +47% -0% (8)	110
16	77	Christine Hammond	USA	08:55:59	10:03:39	00:56:35	04:20:01	03:34:23	100% +0% -0% (7)	(93)
17	87	Jocelyn Mccauley	USA	08:59:13	10:22:47	01:00:35	04:20:08	03:33:30	41% +0% -59% (4)	(142)
18	84	Heather Leiggi	USA	09:00:40	10:20:03	01:02:38	04:19:41	03:33:21	46% +13% -41% (6)	135
19	76	Christine Fletcher	CAN	09:06:44	10:10:27	01:00:55	04:21:09	03:39:40	92% +8% -0% (20)	109
20	86	Caroline Martineau	CAN	09:12:29	10:46:58	01:05:09	04:25:47	03:36:33	20% +49% -31% (4)	177
21	80	Amy Javens	USA	09:17:34	10:23:37	01:09:09	04:19:41	03:43:44	100% +0% -0% (5)	145
22	79	Rachel Jastrebsky	USA	09:18:10	10:29:05	01:03:16	04:30:28	03:39:26	100% +0% -0% (5)	(161)
23	83	Angela Kuehnlein	GER	09:20:47	10:30:33	01:04:47	04:33:39	03:37:21	61% +0% -39% (5)	164
24	82	Corrie Kristick	USA	09:35:56	11:00:48	00:53:56	04:15:11	04:21:48	44% +0% -56% (2)	(181)
25	74	Terry Casey	USA	09:53:56	11:12:19	01:00:49	04:27:57	04:20:10	100% +0% -0% (1)	(182)
	68	Alicia Kaye	USA	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated		(n/a)
	71	Liz Baugher	USA	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated		(n/a)
	73	Lauren Brandon	USA	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated		(n/a)
	88	Carrie Mccoy	USA	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated		(n/a)
	89	Kathy Rakel	USA	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated		(n/a)
	91	Jodie Robertson	USA	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated		(n/a)

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

While Nils Frommhold is my statistical pick for the win, the shortened bike course should play into the hands of defending champion Matt Hanson and other strong runners such as Jeff Symonds, Matt Russell or Callum Millward. The Spaniards Eneko Llanos and Clemente Alonso will contend for the podium when healthy, but I can’t really see them winning. The shortened bike will negate a large part of the strengths of Jordan Rapp, Michael Weiss and especially Andy Strarykowicz:

• Nils Frommhold: 26% (3-1)
• Matt Hanson: 17% (5-1)
• Eneko Llanos: 13% (7-1)
• Clemente Alonso McKernan: 12% (7-1)
• Jordan Rapp: 9% (10-1)
• Michael Weiss: 7% (13-1)
• Jeff Symonds: 6% (17-1)
• Matthew Russell: 4% (25-1)
• Callum Millward: 2% (54-1)

Female Race Participants

On the female side the data points to another German winner: Julia Gajer is the pre-race favorite. But Julia and also Sarah Piampiano will need to have a great run to be able to take the win, especially as the shortened bike course will improve the chances of Kelly Williamson. With Amanda Stevens it’s hard to assess how fresh she is going to be (she raced New Zealand in March), and Rebekah Keat hasn’t raced an Ironman in more than two years. Lisa Roberts could be a surprise contender on race day – she’s got excellent bike skills and is also a fast runner.

• Julia Gajer: 44% (1-1)
• Sarah Piampiano: 22% (4-1)
• Kelly Williamson: 19% (4-1)
• Amanda Stevens: 5% (17-1)
• Rebekah Keat: 4% (22-1)
• Lisa Roberts: 2% (42-1)

In addition to these there are Iron-Rookie Alicia Kaye and not-really-Iron-Rookie Lauren Brandon (she DNF’d in New Zealand) who can have an impact on how the race develops.